al jazeera america. and good evening, everyone. welcome to our special coverage of the iowa caucus. i'm john siegenthaler in new york. tonight, the first contest of the 2016 presidential race. an important night for republicans and democrats. this is a live look at a caucus at drake university in des moines. there has been a lot of talk about the polls. soon we'll find out if the polls were actually right. my coanchor ali velshi is in des moines with the view on the
ground, ali? ♪ >> -- we're still counting votes the old way, but they are going to be transmitted to the state parties a little bit differently. precinct captains will have an app on their phone, as long as they count correctly, they can relay the votes correctly. you'll remember the last time around, iowa went on for hours and hours and hours. there were missing ballots, and people had to phone in the results. well that is supposed to end tonight. there is a paper and pen backup, but the good news that we should have, at least fiefficient counting. the big numbers probably will take a couple of hours, john. >> ali your audio was off in the beginning. explain where you are tonight.
>> i'm at the microsoft media center in downtown des moines. microsoft is using the system -- it's their system that precinct captains will used to remain information to the state party headquarters, which will certify them. microsoft is sort of the go-between tonight, john. >> all right. david shuster is here to take a look at why this contest is so important. >> nobody is reporting any problems with those caucuses which have now closed across the state. let's start with some final polls in both parties. here we go with the republican race. the numbers had donald trump ahead of ted cruz by about five points. and then on the democratic side, the des moines register poll yesterday had hillary clinton up three in the des moines register
poll, and then there was a second poll that came oured today on the democratic side, the des moines register poll from yesterday, there was another pole that came out today where the turnout model was slightly different, and that poll has bernie sanders ahead of hillary clinton, 49-46. this is how close the race is. iowa voters have been watching and meeting the candidates for nearly a year. so the judgments tonight will set the tone for the rest of the campaign, and put the political world on notice. ♪ this land is your land, this land is my land ♪ >> reporter: it has already been one of the quirkiest and most unpredictable presidential races in decades. >> what the tell do we have to talk so much? just do it, right? >> reporter: and in both parties the results will begin to answer key questions. how vulnerable is the political
establishment. >> reporter: before it was called obamacare, it was called hilary care. >> reporter: and what is the depth and duration of voter angry. for the candidates a win tonight will mean a bonanza in media attention, a surge in donors. >> unless i win, i would consider it a big, fat, beautiful, and by the way very expensive waste of time. >> reporter: the celebrity and billionaire developer has lead every g.o.p. national and state-wide poll. >> by the way we have the biggest crowds by far. >> reporter: if he wins the caucuses, trump, according to ted cruz could run the table. >> if he went on to win new hampshire as well, there's a very good chance he could be
unstoppable. >> reporter: cruz who shut down the government two years ago is the leading anti-establishment alternative to trump. >> if ted cruz wins that's a great story too. >> reporter: and marco rubio's rivals have largely abandoned iowa. >> i feel good. the crowds are growing. our campaign structure feels good about it. so we'll see what it leads to. >> reporter: for many candidates, including ben carson, carly fiorina, and others a poor finish tonight will likely mean the end of the road. on the democratic race. hillary clinton is trying to avoid a surprising setback. >> thank you! her campaign is better organized and funded than eight years ago,
and this nomination race was supposed to be a clinton cake walk. >> stick have the experience. stick with the ideas that will actually work for our country. clinton's pragmatism has faced a strong challenge from bernie sanders. >> the status quo is simply not acceptable. we are going to make fundamental changes in our economy and in our political life. >> reporter: if sanders wins tonight, he will likely build on his lead in new hampshire, surge in other states and all but guarantee that clinton faces a long and dangerous nomination fight. >> join in the political revolution. thank you all very much. [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: iowa has never been a great predictor of who ultimately wins a presidential nomination, but it can provide the rocket fuel for an insurgent campaign. and that is why the republican and democratic establishments tonight are so nervous as they
see the caucuses are underway, john, there is a great fear there is going to be a rejection election, in other words the outsiders that's who those caucus goers are going to support. >> as you mentioned the doors are now closed to the cause cusses, so there's no much more the candidates or their campaigns can do tonight. right now voters are coming together and they will have their final say. and it may be a couple of hours before we have any results. let's go to ali in des moines. >> reporter: you'll get early results from some small republican precincts. so within half an hour we'll get some results, but they will be small precincts and they will be republican. for the democrats. the candidates's surrogates give speeches, so that will take at least 90 minutes, and then they all move around the room. iowa is not a winner-take-all
state. even ted cruz comes in second to democratic strategist donnie fowler -- donald trump, the closest thing to the establishment is marco rubio. for the democrats this is a more serious issue, because hillary clinton is ahead, according to the latest polling, but well within the margin of error. we know she is 20 points behind in new hampshire, so if bernie sanders because particularly well, this gives you momentum. david is right in saying that the outcome of iowa is only right about half of the time, but it is about momentum. we have spoken to mike huckabee who said if he doesn't do well, he may be out of the race. rick santorum who won the last time around, even though it was declared to be mitt romney, if he doesn't do well, he will have to rethink his chances, as will
carly fiorina. let's go to michael shure. tell us where you are, michael. >> reporter: well, ali right now i'm at a republican caucus at roosevelt high school, and what is happening now, ali is they are giving the speeches before the caucus. they have done the pledge of allegiance. a gentlemen speaking on behalf of ted cruz, this is how it goes. about 60 people here. tending to be a little older in this room. also we're in polk county. polk county is decidedly democratic. on the other side of this school. they are taking up three rooms for the democrats. >> all right. have you had a chance to talk to people? are they coming in decided? or are they coming in to listen
to those speaks that we're listening to now? >> reporter: most of what the people have decided on their candidates there are two democrats i spoke to who have ledgesterred today. >> could you be passionate, i want to listen to this. >> reporter: all right. they are asking me to keep it down, ali. >> all right. i'll let you guys all listen in. >> it is an interesting phenomenon here in iowa. you can go in and register as a republican or democrat on this very day. you don't have to do it ahead of time. let's go to duarte geraldino. i saw lineups of students waiting to caucus. what is going on where you are? >> reporter: this room is still not filled with the maximum number of people that want to come in here. but as you can see there is only
standing room, ali. there are some people sitting on the staircases. i'm going to ask my partner to look over here, because they are squeezing in over here. they are divided along the lines of the candidates. there certainly is lot of momentum over here. on the other side, you see o'malley and hillary clinton, a lot of people say this could be their first or second time, but they really wanted to play a part in this process. there are five precincts here, so five separate caucuses, and the line is out the door up the stairs and actually on the sidewalk. so this caucus effectively still hasn't started. so we haven't had the speeches yet. they may try to find a different place to move the crowd, because it may not actually accommodate everyone who wants to get, ali. >> while bernie sanders is doing particularly well in that
demographic, all of those people what are lining up, they only give them the same weight of votes tonight, so it may not work to his advantage, because students are concentrated in a few pockets around the state, not all over. >> reporter: that's a very valid point of what is happening over here. however, some students are saying that they actually are going back home. so these are the factions that are actually here. some students saying this is so important that they are going back to their home precincts to take part in the caucuses. >> all right. john very different scenes there. >> yeah, democracy at work, and sometimes it's messy. let's go back to our panel now. republican joe watkins a former white house aid to george h.w.
bush. and david shuster is back. it is a great example of just how messy this process is, and they are not the same, right, genie? >> yeah, absolutely. they caucus very differently. and that was very telling when you compare the two. the republicans have a private ballot, and the democrats have a more rowdy process. >> it says something about this country that this is the first political contest in 2016. >> absolutely, so exciting of course, a lot of the campaigns already know where they stand, and they are really trying to measure how people see them, so like if you are chris christie, if you are saying if i'm the leading governor in the iowa caucuses that's a win for me. you have to dial back expectations so that whatever you do looks like a win. >> and david you contend that the candidates now already know who is in the room?
>> yes, because they keep lists -- the maximum that a democratic candidate can expect to win tonight, maybe 80,000 tops. i guarantee, hillary clinton, and the bernie sanders, they have their lists. likewise ted cruz on the republican side, he knows whether his supporters went to the caucus. some of the candidates not as well organized would be donald trump, he is simply counting on a large turnout. but for the clinton and sanders campaign this is white knuckle time. >> let's talk about when we might expect to get results. it's going to be a long time before -- you are going to get the precinct from the democrats -- >> that's right. >> because the room is not big enough. they might have to move it to another room. everybody is cheering. it looks like chaos, right? [ laughter ] >> yeah, but they can predict -- >> i'm glad -- you are better
than i am, because i could not predict anything. >> students are polling for bernie sanders 2-1. we know that. so they know how those university precincts are going to do. >> reporter: there is a live shot from west des moines where donald trump is in the crowd. can we hear on that shot? and this is another part of the process, which just blows me away. this is not secret ballots. these are people who come in -- and the candidates happen to talk in at the same time. [ laughter ] >> sometimes the candidates themselves rather than having somebody appointed to speak on their behalf, you'll have the main candidate themselves at the big caucuses. barack obama and hillary clinton did that eight years ago. they will speak on behalf of themselves to the caucus goers to make their case.
>> maybe the biggest question is whether donald trump has the machine to turn out votes? >> he has attracted voters that typically do not go to the caucuses. and are they going turn out? or are they going to stay home? in 2007 and 2008, barack obama got first-time caucus goers out to the polls, and he was able to win and beat hillary clinton as a result. so for both, donald trump, and bernie sanders, the highest the turnout the better they do, and they are appealing to constituents that tend not to vote in primaries or caucuses. >> all right? h. we're going back to des moines. >> reporter: welcome to the campaign of 2016, john. let's talk to mo, the executive director of georgetown university's institute of
politics and public service, but before that he was communications director with the democratic national council. good to talk to you. until now, mo, in this race, we have been largely focused on undoing of the republican party. the democrats have been coasting along without all of that much attention on it, but tonight that changes, because whether hillary clinton wins or doesn't win here, bernie sanders is doing up strong, and we know he is strong going into new hampshire. what is -- how do you gauge this, not between bernie sanders and hillary clinton, but as it reflects on the democratic party? >> well, it's interesting. i was looking at some polls the other day, and what really struck me is -- there are a couple of things that really struck me. number one bernie sanders and hillary clinton were both remarkably popular, they had
favorability ratings in the 80% range. that's very different than the republicans who where it's almost a race to the bottom to see who is disliked the least. >> right. >> and when you listen to them both speak, they are delivering different messages. they both are delivering a very populous message about being a champion. they come with different flavors to that message, but i don't see this as a big referendum on the democratic party, as much as the candidate that people like. >> is this expected to go a certain way and bernie sanders is sort of messing that up. >> democrats tend to go with where the voters take them. so that's what we'll see tonight. i think tonight both candidates
will come out, regardless of how it plays out, though i do think looking at the numbers and the organization, i do think hilary pulls out a very narrow win tonight. but regardless of how it plays out, it will be close and both sides will claim victory. i think this will go on for a little while, but bernie was never supposed to be in this. but if you believe recent polls the momentum was headed his way, and she was able to hold him off in a state that has never been very good to her. she came in third place in 2008 in iowa. if she is able to hold him off, that speaks volumes about her organization. >> we're taking a look at live pictures of martin o'malley. he is trying to play up his youthfulness, the youth seem to be liking bernie sanders and he is able to go in there, but he is not polling any serious
numbers there. but we're taking a look at that. mo i'm going to come back to you in a little bit and talk about three constituencies, women, the young people, and we want to talk about african americans, because you said this is going to go on for a while, and that means this may be into play well after south carolina. now i'm going back to john in new york. >> ali the weather always has the potential affect turnout. kevin corriveau is here with a look at how things turned out in iowa tonight. >> that's right. if we were to look at this storm three days ago, we knew iowa would be impacted. if it was six to eight hours earlier, we would see a much different result on the people coming to these events. we are looking at the storm system here. but we are seeing the snow all the way up towards the northeast. i want to show you what we' talking about. we are getting rains in part of
iowa, but the big problem is not going to happen until after midnight, when all of the winter warnings go into effect. you can see up towards parts of the great lakes, but it's that blizzard warning that is the big problem here. this goes into effect at 3:00 am into tuesday morning. that is going to continue towards wednesday morning, but take a look at what happens across much of the area. we are looking at blizzard conditions all day long for people traveling, a major problem there. >> thank you very much. our coverage of the iowa caucus continues in just a moment, but up next, other top stories. en up a date on how they are handling the zika crisis in puerto rico. plus new details in the fatal crash of an amtrak train last may after this.
and you are looking at a live picture from des moines, iowa, of a democratic caucus. it's going on right now. this the first test of the 2016 presidential election, upway in iowa. our special coverage begins at 9:00 eastern time. but first some of the days other toch stories. congress called for briefings on the zika virus today. the world health organization has now declared the disease an international emergency. >> a coordinated international response is needed to improve surveillance, the detection of infections, con genital mall formations, to intensify the control of of mosquito populations, and expedite the development of diagnostic tests
and vaccines to protect people at risk. >> reporter: this usually means more money and stepped up efforts to stop an outbreak. and some health officials say the virus may cause severe brain deformations in infants. the center of disease control has issued four more travel alerts. puerto rico is already on that list. it could not have come at a worse time for the cras crash-strapped commonwealth. >> reporter: john, indeed. the last thing they need is a health crisis. puerto ricoian health officials are warning residents and tourists to take the zika virus
seriously. >> our main concern is that pregnant women are not going to take all of the necessary steps or those that intend to get pregnant might not take all of the necessary steps to protect themselves. >> reporter: that's because in brazil, an outbreak of microcephaly cases a devastating condition in which a baby is born with an abnormally small head and brain. health officials suspect zika is a potential cause. >> we are quite concerned about the potential complications to the fee cuss of zika virus infection of pregnant women. so we are advising that pregnant women seriously consider postponing travel to these areas if possible. >> reporter: as the island paradise is on high alert, officials with the world health organization are meeting in geneva switzerland. and on monday they announced that the zika virus outbreak in the americas an international health emergency.
>> the level of concern is high, as is the level of uncertainty. questions abound. we need to get some answers quickly. >> reporter: zika virus a mosquito transmitted disease. symptoms appear two to seven days after being infected and last for several days. just one in five people infected become ill. hospitalization is uncommon and deaths are rare. the latest outbreak. >> as with the introduction of any new decide to the area, there is a lot of anxiety as to what does this really mean? and unfortunately we don't have that many answers. >> reporter: for tourists many are taking precautions, but
something the puerto ricoian is not getting the world out fast enough. >> no, i'm not aware of that. so i don't think they have probably done a lot as far as public service announcements. >> reporter: no vaccine is available. it's likely to be years off and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, so prevention techniques, like fumigating streets and spraying one's body with deet is the only resistance. >> i brought bug pray to go to puerto rico, and i wear it at night when i go out. >> reporter: already experiencing a dire financial crisis in the billions, puerto rico is paying close attention to the spread of the virus, making sure tourists continue to travel here, feeding the economy. john no doubt the world health organization and their meeting today in geneva, switzerland was early and fast. why? because they were criticized
when ebola came out and nearly 11,000 people died from that. they were criticized that they didn't have those meetings fast enough. so they are trying to edge this before it becomes too big of an issue, john. >> robert thank you. good news for chipotle, the cdc says it's outbreak appears to be over. scientists were unable to pinpoint what exactly caused the problem. more than 60 people got sick in two separate outbreaks after eating at chipotle. no one died. it was sentencing day for a former official in a west virginia chemical spill. today a former manager at freedom industries was sentenced to three years probation, and a $10,000 fine. he was convicted on pollution
charges. five other company officials will be sentenced soon. the ntsb released a report on the deadly amtrak derailment in philadelphia. it took them 2,000 pages to say they still didn't know what caused the disaster. erika pitzi has more. >> reporter: amtrak 188 veered off the tracks in may of last year, killing eight people and injuring 200 more. monday the ntsb released thousands of documents. the train's engineer shedding little light into the cause. attorneys representing some of the victims criticized the engineer for changing his story numerous times. >> there was no memory of the he person in this whole tragedy. in may days after the event, and then there is an elaborate, description of what he remembers and doesn't remember, and mainly
we have focused on what he says he recalls, and what he recalls that he was operating the train knowing where he was. >> reporter: three days after the accident, brandon bostian told the ntsb he remembered vfr little in the moments before the crash, but in the second interview, he said he remembered having a dream-like memory when he felt the train going too fast into a curve. >> we do not believe at all that he had a medical condition which mysteriously and somehow allowed memory to seep back into his head. we believe that his inconsistent story speaks volumes about him and his credibility and believability at trial. >> reporter: among the other findings was this key video, showing the moment the train fell off of the tracks. the train had been traveling at 106 miles per hour, where the speed limit was only 50 miles
per hour. he also told investigators he had only sporadic experience on the model he was driving. the assist important conductor said that bostian reported someone throwing rocks at the train before it derailed. amtrak had installed an automatic breaks system on the southbound of the tracks, but not on the northbound side. attorneys argue that the blame lies with bostian and bostian alone. >> there was no problem with the signals. no problem with the tracks. no problem with the locomotive, no problem with the brakes. and what we learned was the problem was brandon bostian. coming up next, we go back to des moines as our live coverage continues of tonight's caucuses. there is the democratic caucus
caucuses -- democratic caucuses going on in des moines tonight. there is another one at a high school gymnasium. and i believe we have one more shot of a crowd in des moines. not quite as packed. a little older crowd, but definitely people have turned out on this old winter's night in iowa. they didn't get any snow. they are going to get their votes counted. the winners won't necessarily become the front runners, but can it help a candidate build momentum and it can mean then of the road for candidates who perform poorly in iowa. ali has more on that. >> reporter: i want to ask my cameraman to zoom in on the board. these are not the same results that news organizations are using to report what is happening. these are the results that are coming into microsoft through the state party. so the results go from each precinct through microsoft to
the state party who certified them and sends them back to microsoft. on the left you have the democratic caucus result, on right republicans. hillary clinton is in the lead, but you have only got -- i can't even see, 76 out of about 1680 precincts reporting. on the republican you have 18 precincts reporting only, and you have donald trump at a slightly 35-30. so it's far too early to have reliable numbers, but that's what you are starting to get in. the likelihood those are coming from precincts that are relatively small. part of the issue here, john, is that people who are going to contribute money are waiting to see after this first contest, maybe after the next one in new hampshire, and maybe in the case of the democrats, they want to see south carolina before really committing to putting real money behind their candidates. and a lot of people put money
behind their candidates by donating directly to them, or by donating to super pacs which support them. i want to bring in dave who is with the center for public integrity, and they look at where all of the money is going. an interesting phenomenon is that fund-raising by super pacs and spending by super pacs has looked very different in the second half of 2015, which we just finished than it looked at the beginning of 2015. draw me a picture here about money being spent on this campaign. >> you think about to eight years ago when hillary clinton was running for president against barack obama. we were in iowa. almost all of the money being raised and spent was coming in to the candidates themselves. they were in control of the cash. we're fining in 2016, particularly on the republican side, that super pacs these organization that can raise and
spend unlimited amounts of money are accounting for more money than the candidates themselves are raising. >> all right. what -- what likely happens once we start seeing obvious front runners in both cases in these parties after iowa, new hampshire, and possibly south carolina? do you expect to see a change in the pattern of spending? >> the republicans have been spending like crazy from the get-go. so that is probably not going to change. what i would keep an eye on is what happened on the democratic side. if bernie sanders wins iowa today and wins new hampshire, hillary clinton will be in a very tough position. but hillary clinton is sitting on several super pacs that have raised tos of millions of dollars. they do not want to spend it on bernie sanders, but if bernie
sanders is threatenering her nomination, then those super pacs are probably going to get off of their hands and start spending money against bernie sanders because they have to at that point. >> i have just taken a look at the board, right now we're showing trump in the lead very close above cruz, and clinton a close lead above bernie sanders, but it is very early in the night. let me ask you how the two outliers in this race effect the super pac idea. bernie sanders says he doesn't want super pacs supporting him, and donald trump says he doesn't want super pacs supporting him. >> donald trump is saying i hate super pacs, a few have popped up, but they really have not done much of anything. and donald trump is largely s f
self-funding his campaign. bernie sanders is an odd situation in the sense that he for years and years and years been against super pacs, will speak out against them whenever he has the opportunity. but a nurse's union super pac, a super pac backed by a major nurse's union in the country has been spending hundreds of thousands to support him. super pacs are at least nominally independent from the candidates, and they can do whatever they want to. candidates can't control them. >> all right. dave thank you. we'll talk to you again, later. i want to go back to michael shure. he is at the same place he was, but he has moved over to the democratic caucus. this is a sign of how seriously these iowans take their caucuses. they basically gave you your hat
and showed you the door, because they wanted to hear the speeches. >> reporter: that's exactly right, ali. this is the democratic side of roosevelt high school. there is a lot of bernie momentum, but there are a lot of hillary clinton supporters. this is polk county. this is a place that both of these candidates campaigned very hard. polk county a centerpiece of the sander's campaign for a lot of the time, and it is paying off, as we can see a lot of energy for bernie sanders. >> michael tell us a bit about process, because we have this board behind us right here that is starting to populate. what is your sense in that caucus that you are in right now, when might one start to get results out that are meaningful? we're seeing about 125 fre -- precincts have already
reported, democratic precincts. >> reporter: yeah, ali, it's very hard to predict. this caucus has a lot of people, so it got off to a very late start. they just had the election of the precinct captain, and now they are getting toe the actual caucusing. i think it looks like the o'malley people may play a bigger role than at some of the other caucuses. >> thank you, michael. we'll come back to you. remember, john, you do have to get 15% threshold in order to be counted, so many o'malley isn't getting to that number, that may be the difference between bernie sanders and hillary clinton. and martin o'malleys people may be the king makers. the democratic way of doing
these caucuses is bisetine, it is going to be a complicated night, john. >> all right. let's take a look at some of the numbers. donald trump with 33%, ted cruz with 32%, rubio 13%. and then you go to the democrats -- again, these are very, very early numbers, but hillary clinton -- this is 7% reports from iowa, 53% for hillary clinton, 46 for bernie sanders. you had some interesting numbers that you were seeing david. >> i was just looking at the latest from the state. there is something like 90% of the numbers still to come, on the republican side thi think -- they have reported in, i think nine counties. so it goes to show that some of
these smaller counties, they do report much faster than the rest. the key is going to be in some of the larger cities like des moines, the largest ones that do take longer to tabulate the votes both because the precincts are more crowded and because turnout is higher, that's where the numbers are going to shift. so it's interesting to talk about the first 10%, but not that significant. >> was donald trump do better in rural areas? in >> we'll see. if i'm donald trump i'm playing down the expectation right now. you have got to play down expectation, because you don't know. polls have been inaccurate in the past. i mean in 2012, everybody thought that mitt romney won, only to fine out later that rick santorum had actually won. >> we are getting 2% in, and again, you can see how close. this is the republican side, 33%
to 32%. >> and your point about urban versus rural. the last ten events that donald trump did were in the biggest cities. he doesn't have an organization to go into some of the smaller counties. his organization, to the extent he has one is in the biggest cities. >> but the argult i was trying to make -- i think -- [ laughter ] >> was in the rural counties it may be a more conservative republican voter. >> yeah, and i would say it's not predictive, but the early entrance polls are showing a slight edge for trump and clinton. and that's what they are getting in terms of the results with clinton and trump out ahead. >> let me bring in jack kingston in washington. what do you think of what you are seeing tonight? >> i think it's going to be a long night. i think it's going to be
exciting. i think that -- whoever is number one -- of course that's the first thing you ask, who is going to win it? but the second question is just as important, and that is who is going to be second, third, and fourth? and are those candidates going to be in a cluster, or is there going to be a long distance between the two of them. and the final question you ask yourself is who drops out. granted many or most have paid their qualifying fees for new hampshire and south carolina, but in all reality they are going to broke tomorrow if they don't have a decent showing, and out of 12 candidates, i think we can watch for probably four to six to really be on life support at best. >> there only 3% in right now. but ted cruz has popped back up. and there we have donald trump at one of the caucuses tonight in clive, iowa. but there was a lot of talk about evangelical vote in iowa,
and whether or not because ted cruz had taken a stand against ethanol supports, that he might not do as well with ir iran -- iowans there. and others said evangelical will trump that. what do you think? >> i have been in touch with leaders in the past couple of weeks. everywhere king goes, cruz goes, and vice versa. king has supported the ethanol program. but he is completely comfortable with the cruz approach of bringing it closer to market. and then in terms of the evangelical vote, cruz got the endorsements of gary bower, james dobson, tony perkins, big names in thieve community. he has been playing to the fact that his dad is a preacher.
he made his announcement speech at liberty university nflt so he checks both of those boxes derecently enough. but part of the cruz campaign also is the organization. something like 12,000 volunteers. 20,000 phone calls a day. 2,000 doors knocked on each day. even people like glen beck not just endorsing, but staying in town, sticking around, and going to the phone bank himself. that's the kind of on-hands grass roots energy and devotion you see in the cruz campaign, and i think they are counting on that tonight. >> donald trump is taking the stage in clive and you saw ted cruz, but as we watch -- well, let's listen a little bit. >> so we are going to work on our boarders. we're going to make our military stronger than ever before. it's the best thing we can do.
it's frankly the east expensive -- >> obviously this is a speech we have heard from donald trump before. but we only have 55 precincts out of 1681, but if it turns out that tonight it's either donald cruz by 32 -- ted cruz or donald trump, you know, neck and neck, what does that mean for the republican party? >> i think it just means that it is going to be a long spring. i think things will be sorted out by june, but i think you go into new hampshire and it is going to be tough, but cruz is further down the ticket in new hampshire. kasick is moving up, and certainly that's christie's neighborhood, so he is going to be a factor there. it's going to be interesting to see if george bush starteds moving after iowa, and if he doesn't, i think it is going to hurt him in new hampshire and south carolina, and nevada also has 30 delegates, and they will
vote before super-tuesday. so i think it's just fascinating process. >> jack, i want to show the republicans again. this is the way it looks right now. we're talking just about 4% of the caucuses results are in. and ted cruz has 31%, donald trump 20%. let's go to the democrats and take a look. hillary clinton 52%, bernie sanders 46%. we will continue our coverage right after this. don't go away. ♪