tv Inside Story 2018 Ep 82 Al Jazeera March 23, 2018 8:32pm-9:01pm +03
roster syrian army's assault to retake eastern go to began a month ago has been one of the most intense attacks of the seventy a war. china has called on the u.s. to pull back from the brink as fears of a trade war grow it says it will impose its own tariffs on u.s. goods if president trump insists on taxing chinese imports stock markets around the world suffer declines after trump's announcement in peru congress has accepted the resignation of president pedro public earlier he was threatening to withdraw the motion and defend himself against impeachment proceedings the way is now clear for kaczynski replacement to be sworn in the vice president not in this car at. the european union has called back its ambassador in moscow for consultations related to the poisoning of a former russian spy in the u.k. e.u. leaders also backed britain's view that moscow is likely to blame for the attack on sergei script and his daughter yulia russia denies the allegations though and says e.u. need is a being drawn into an anti russia campaign instigated by the u.k.
and the united states i'll have more on all those stories in the news hour that's coming up in twenty five minutes time do join me then but coming up now it's inside story stay with us. is the united states becoming more belligerent john bolton is to take over as the u.s. national security adviser after previously backing attacks on iran and north korea and forcing a strong america first policy long before. what signal is the to the rest of the world now this inside story.
hello welcome to the program i'm still robin the legal case for striking north korea first and to stop iran's bomb bomb iran well two of the articles penned by john bolton in leading us newspapers over the years donald trump's choice for national security advisor appears to match the president's confrontational views on the rest of the world which often the jacks consensus building on supports using american economic and military power to punish anyone who doesn't fall into line. has more. john bolton has worked for three republican presidents and caused controversy even among members of his own party now he joins a trumpet ministration apparently in turmoil analysts say bolton is
a hard liner and donald trump is sending a very clear message by choosing him instead of a more moderate voice mr bolton didn't see a war that he didn't like you know when he was at the united nations as an acting ambassador there because he couldn't get confirmed by the senate he said you know diplomacy is useless it can might as well float out into the sea and sink i think what we can see is an escalation of tensions bolton has a history of imposing american military might he advocated the invasion of iraq in two thousand and three while embassador to the u.n. he took a hard line against north korea and iran by pushing sanctions the united states has followed a policy for over four years sensually of deferring to european efforts to negotiate with iran i think it's clear that that policy has failed the season politicians returned to the front line of foreign policy gives him an opportunity to shape the
president's views on north korea and iran at a critical moment trump has spoken of wanting to rip up the iranian nuclear accord and he's due for a much anticipated meeting with north korean leader kim jong un in may the talks with north korea go poorly trump walk out and say you know that didn't really get us anything and done john bolton to say look i told you we should strike north korea john bones but on the record he said twice in the last six months the u.s. should attack north korea even within trump's inner circle there's disagreement about whether bolton is the right man for the national security job is ideology is thought to be aligned with his boss and he's already tried to ease fears that he pushed the united states into another conflict saying he will be one. among many who are advising the president and there should be a free exchange of ideas as an ever growing number of trump's right hand men and women have learned bolton's biggest challenge may be keeping the continued faith of
president trump and his job natasha going to al-jazeera for inside story right now john bolton has several immediate global challenges to deal with hill get to weigh in on whether the u.s. should abandon the iran nuclear deal which he strongly advocated president trump has to decide by may the twelfth also in may translate much anticipated meeting with north korean leader kim jong un bolton is an enthusiastic supporter of israel and has said in the past that the two state solution is dead is even needed a so-called three state solution with gaza becoming egyptian territory and the occupied west bank going back to jordan and russia and like trying bolton is known for his deep distrust of the kremlin. well joining me in on this edition of inside story from boston we have jim walsh senior research associate at the massachusetts institute of technology security studies program welcome to you from
singapore evan resnick coordinator in the united states program at the institute of defense and strategic studies at the s. rajaratnam school and here on set with me is the toler the jat of misting fellow at the brookings doha center good to have all of you with us on the program mr wallace clinton to you first i mean observers and analysts across the board describe the move as one that is you might see bringing a hard line a whole one of more hawkish nature and substance to the u.s. cabinet what does bolton bring to the cabinet that is pretty decisive as didn't well for the time being he's bringing support from the president all the reporting was that mcmaster and trump were not a good combination it is reported that mr trump didn't like mcmasters sort of slowly going over the pros and cons and pushing back when he disagreed with the president john bolton is a skilled bureaucratic player been in washington a long time you obviously has been able to cozy up to the president and convince
him that they're on the same page even though there are differences between the two but what they share and i want to underline there's a lot of you know what we're hearing is that this is signaling or it has to do with policy or idiology i disagree completely. for this president this is not a policy president this is not in any ology president it's about emotion and personality and what he finds in john bolton for the moment is a personality that sinks with him and some views that that he's in agreement with if lincoln had a team of rivals then this president is looking for a team of people he gets along with and who agree with him i think it's much more about personality than it is about policy but the result will be a more hawkish america and mr resnick is agreeing with you but i want you will more question mr walsham you touched upon it and that his advice is around him generally members that agree with the president i mean does he just really want yes men around him i mean if you're an observer looking into the american cabinet at the
moment anybody that disagrees will stands all sides on the air of cool sion is out yeah the one exception to that now is secretary mattis a secretary matt is also been a very skillful player here he does not show up on the evening news very often on the u.s. media he's never shown to be publicly disagreeing with the president so he seemed to be able to hold on to that relationship but will have to say now that the the mix the equation has changed with the secretary of state tillerson out with mcmaster out and only madness remaining whether that change in the equation will lead to a change in results i just i suspect it will but time will tell very briefly before we can expand they said mr walsh richard payne to the full ethics officer for george bush is george w. bush's administration tweeted mr bolton's hiring is an invitation to wall pap's nuclear war it's worrying some court has now will certainly in the coming days of the political establishment in washington d.c.
surely you know we're running of the us is running a gigantic national security experiment we have a president who is inexperienced uninformed and prone to rather rash decisions now . he surrounded him self with people who he believes mostly agree with him and the question is in this permissive environment is he going to do things that lead to war now the positive case here is such is such a scary. situation that it will scare other countries into complying with u.s. demands that would be the happy scenario of the un happy scenario would be we have a president to unconstrained makes poor decisions and we result that results in chaos and conflicts you know i hope it's the former as distasteful as it is but i suspect it will be the latter well i think you said he set the scene for us let's bring in our singapore guest evan resnick who is also i think noting quite vigorously with some of the issues that you mentioned i mean it does bring us very
closely really to the nuclear issue within asia pacific it's a hot topic certainly with north korea mr bolton's been very clear as an on the situation the bush didn't it bush administration he advocated for a third strike but of course any early hour was not even days of his appointment now and he went take that job until early april he's being very tight lipped at the moment what do you think his position is going to be. john bolton has a long history of being very consistent in his foreign policy and national security policy views they tend to be wrong but at least he's very consistent in them he's a true ideologues so i don't anticipate that he is going to radically become a dove now that he has come on board the trumpet ministration so my sense is that he will continue advocating what he has long advocated throughout his political career is it's an easy choice to actually have someone like. john bolton in that position as mr walsh jim walsh guest suggested.
when there are already so many who might see hawks in the continent. the given the set that could give the president the same advice again i think jim walsh was absolutely right on this. to some degree of trump was was going to play this skillfully when he meets with kim jong un in may he bolton's. appointment will be sort of lingering in the background and may provide him with more bargaining leverage right you agree with me or i'm going to start listening to. john bolton and take his advice so if trump is a sort of a skillful deal maker which he's not he says he is but he's not or at least not proven to be thus far then bolton's appointment might conceivably provide some leverage to the administration there's always someone worse out there so you better give me what i want how concerned are you that if trump does have this meeting with kim jong il and comes away empty handed and is then advised that he has to take
more severe measures other than sanctions. it's possible. north korea as best we know has a rudimentary nuclear weapons capability and has a couple of dozen of nuclear devices if nuclear deterrence theory holds then even you know if nuclear weapons deterred stalin and mao presumably they would also deter donald trump from doing something absolutely crazy namely attacking a nuclear armed adversary but it's hard to tell everything in this administration seems so ad hoc and chaotic all the rules keep getting broken so it's very hard to predict my my my hope is that trumpets sort of talks a big game but he usually backs down and he he tends to sort of flit from from topic to topic and when he's proven wrong or he did he does he seem sort of congenitally incapable of losing face so is that if there is that aspect of his
personality that if the meeting doesn't go well he can always just sort of move on to the next topic or forget about it or show just a lie about whatever happened ok let's just hold it. funny very entertaining what you're saying let's bring in ali for to learn the judge here and really interesting story ahead because if you have a snorri with korea where you want them to get rid of their nuclear weapons and bring them into you might set the international fold on the other hand with a country like iran president trump and behind him perhaps now john bolton want to rip up the iran nuclear agreement which could then full sauron to start its uranium enrichment if it wanted to again that's a real danger in terms of instability in in the middle east and the first alone i'm not sure of the trumpet machine at ministration does this linking between the north korean and the iran nuclear case but what is true is that once john bolton is going to assume his position the going to be one month left and the during this one month we have to see what kind of dynamic will evolve with the european partners of the
united states if they will as jim indicated on the general level be willing to give more concessions to the u.s. position on. points that trump mentioned to be issues of concern regarding the iran nuclear deal that is iran's but the stigmas our program but also iran's regional policy so if we're going to be seeing of the europeans are going to be more willing to give concessions on the other hand during that this month we're going to see a likely a war of you know between different kind of institutions in the in the united states when it comes to the direction of iran policy where they're going to be a change towards a regime change policy or are going to be just to be putting more pressure to give more concessions but when you have a cabinet it is becoming repeatedly more intensely rightwing if we can put it like that than you john bolton into that mix a this particular issue episode of stories about john bolton how much influence is he going to have on the cabinet because it when it comes to iran he's absolutely
adamant to what he wants to see what we have these demonstrations in iran early in twenty eighteen on the streets across the country he was advocating full regime change and really pursuing that quite vocally in many newspapers and television interviews and there is no doubt then john bolton has a very problematic view on iran it is to be known to be a supporter of the organization and k.-o. which is basically a totalitarian cold and he has been speaking at their rallies quite often and we have also been seeing pictures now. the problem is that he is very much close to that group that is being backed by israeli hawks u.s. hawks but more recently by saudi arabia so this position will be perceived enter iran as a change perhaps towards a u.s. regime change policy on iran yes i have to be also adding that that the geopolitical situation in the region is very much different than during the bush
years where the new york hands were in the corridors of power in the united states because in the back. then iran was not such an influential player all over the place as it is today so to argue that john bolton is a sign for a regime change policy on iran to be materialized is i think. true and not too early to tell indeed that that's live on to another one of the big issues jim walsh in boston if there was any issue that highlighted certainly the trumpet ministration is the issue of a two state solutions that both the israelis and the palestinians the palestinians cut off communications ever since the u.s. and trying to clad jerusalem the capital all of israel bolton arriving into the cabinet is really not good news for the palestinians though at the present moment they wouldn't really care about it too much because they know that they come in to negotiate with the trump administration yeah i think that's right particularly the
last thing you said i don't think there's a peace process is going anywhere there's no sign that it's going to go anywhere and both the current prime minister and israel will see how long he last has certainly made noises during his previous election campaign talking about a one state solution and so on and the moment of political crisis for him it's not clear to me there's going to be any any movement i guess my concern would be less about the peace process in particular and more generally about the region will israel think that it has a blank check to do whatever it wants in the region whether that's actions in syria and go lon or elsewhere do they believe rightly or wrongly that they can carry out attacks with impunity and have the white house back them with this more vigorous foreign policy team to or muscular foreign policy team i think that's the real danger i think unfortunately the peace process is sort of frozen right now and that
i guess in relative terms the good news because the bad news is things get very much worse in the region. the judge i mean how worse can it get for the palestinians at this moment do they have any avenue beyond trump which is poses the first port of call to look to bolton in any shape or form for solace a way to talk a way to negotiate and the picture has not been brought in any case and now there is also i mean that it has become daca with john bolton being clearly on the on the side of the israeli government but i think that there is you know a lot of continuity in u.s. policy anyways what trump has done is to say what is and what has been longstanding u.s. policy for a long time and i think the u.s. than being as a whole and in the middle east will suffer from that because it is more and more seen to be when it comes to these very partisan issue to be firmly on one side of the equation jim clinic in boston me john kelly is the chief of staff we've got
james mattis defense secretary dare i say it they all the any reasonable voices within a very. largely nationalistic cabinet at the moment yeah i think that's right but i think there's other things going on too it's not just a battle of idiology or of caution versus nationalism there is a sort of chaos here you have people who are cycling in and out even before this most recent announcement there are many chairs that have been left unfilled the u.s. has no ambassador to south korea we're talking on the air now about a possible attack on north korea we don't have an ambassador in south korea there is the no can confirmed assistant secretary of state for asia pacific and on and on mr pompei always been nominated to be the new secretary of state but he remains to be confirmed and that might turn into a battle and so we have many people who are leaving the administration we have holes that had not been filled and those holes are growing in number at the same
time that the president is increasingly giving his attention to the moeller investigation and is going on. obviously more aggressive and more angry about that so to me the sort of frame here is the is this unsettled chaos and new people coming on the job and other people leaving a deadline soon to approach that's one thing in a second thing very briefly is there are some things the president can do on his own for example pull out of the iran agreement and it doesn't matter what anyone says as with the parish climate accord if he wants to pull out well he's going to pull out but when it comes to launching military strikes let's say against iran the agreement falls apart iran starts re enriching bolton advocates for bombing those enrichment facilities well it's at that point that centcom the part of the pentagon that's responsible for the middle east that's when they start to have a say that's more important and i will point out that the head of centcom has come
out in favor of the iran agreement of course madison has been in favor of keeping it as well so once we get to a point of actually using military force more constraints might be applied but at the end of the day the military will do what its commander in chief tells it to do whether mr bolton likes it or not let's go of having runs with in singapore i mean obviously this is all playing out with a timeline of a potential meeting with kim jong un. and must be either scratching their head all smiling at the chaos that he's being created in washington at the moment to how do you assess how north korea is going to approach this potential meeting with trump in less than two months time. i have no idea and neither does anybody and it's again it's sort of a testament to the sheer chaos of this administration's concept and we speak developments here of. this could go either way i mean for kim jong un this could be
a massive propaganda victory for him if this the summit goes well and if he flatters donald trump then and trump's ego is sufficiently stroke that they get along well it's a it's a tremendous diplomatic and propaganda victory for kim if the summit somehow goes. haywire or. there's some sort of clash between the two personality clash then all hell could break loose so it's actually very high risk potentially high reward gamble for kim jong un to participate in this. in this event now usually you know. analysts of u.s. foreign policy are used to talking about unpredictability and risk when it comes to north korean foreign policy not foreign policy emanating out of washington indeed looks like a pillar of stability by comparison with what we've seen in the white house well we shall see what happens in may i mean. if it's alleged let's come in here i mean obviously we know potential hopefully not conflict and in the korean peninsula but
sort of vietnam iraq cuba to name a few areas where regime change was sought by the u.s. you know we've heard these words coming from john bolton in recent months over iran bodybags with american soldiers operatives have come back home it seems that lessons of not being learned from history an armed conflict inevitably have to come back to negotiation diplomacy talk this is what perhaps is the way forward if mr bolton has it in him to even take a step back and think about what's going on. absolutely i mean we have now the anniversary of the u.s. led invasion of iraq and it has not been only a disaster in humanitarian and moral terms with hundreds of thousands of people maybe one million iraqis killed in its wake but it also has been a strategic disaster for the united states because basically what has happened after the mid two thousand that iran could should solve as the prime power in west
asia so also strategically speaking it has been a disasters something that john bolton was very much advocating and supporting so to do the same again on iran would be a huge mistake as well and both humanitarian terms and. also strategic terms when a constant is the ability of the region so one would only hope that trumps pick is driven by personal preferences and it will not translate into a policy that is far more hawkish than we have seen so far and just very briefly we've heard john bolton be very critical of iran is it just saber rattling or do you think the worst is yet to come. i think for now it's a lead to tell because it can put pressure on the europeans to have more concessions on when it comes to the iran nuclear deal but what is the most important factor is that john bolton is really viewed to be on the side of this opposition to tell of terror and called the m k o and so also for the iranian state
it will be more easy to crackdown on dissidents because it would be easy to portray them as to be stooges of a new regime change policy from the united states where bolton is instrumental well we shall see what does happen in the coming weeks and months and there are fortunately we have to leave it i think all of my guests jim walsh in boston evan brains work there in singapore and ali for the child here with me in the studio in doha thank you for all of my guest joining me on this edition of inside story of course thank you for watching as well you can see the program again any time by. website at al-jazeera dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter all handle that is at inside story for me so robin and all of the inside story team thanks very much for your time and your purpose of.
this is really an attack on the truth itself is a lot of misunderstanding of what free speech is supposed to be about the context of hugely important setting the stage for a serious debate up front at this time on al-jazeera. april on al-jazeera from the stories beyond the headlines faultlines examines the u.s. his role in the world's fifty years since the death of martin luther king we examine the impact of his assassination and the state of race relations in the u.s. today the old winning show earthrise returns for another season with stories about
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