tv Inside Story 2018 Ep 153 Al Jazeera June 2, 2018 8:32pm-9:01pm +03
tied directly to military use for the purposes of intimidation and coercion trying to militarization of the spratleys is also in direct contradiction to president twenty fifteen public prefer intruders in the white house rose garden that they would not do that. government troops in indian administered kashmir have fired at hundreds of people who were attending a funeral a gathered to pay their respects to a man who was run over by a military vehicle during an anti india protest on friday he died in hospital overnight the moon is on marching with the man's body to a graveyard in cern ika when police and soldiers used force to stop them well as the headlines i'll have more on everything for you in the news hour in about twenty five minutes time but that's off the inside story which starts now.
the first papias government in western europe kenneth soviet's nice problem is a coalition of the far right and unties tabish bodies and months of political uncertainty but is it a threat to the european union this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program on. a very unusual coalition government has come to power and it's leaders of the anti-establishment five saw movement and the right wing on thai immigration league body have been sworn into office ending three months of political deadlock they want to revive its least like ish economy by
rejecting austerity and increasing spending proposals which have worried the european union because of its debt so what will this government led by a law professor just epic kaante mean for italy and the rest of europe will put that question to our guests in just a moment but first the report from. the new prime minister. makes way for professor. marking the first time italy's so-called populists have been in government. i swear to be loyal to the public to faithfully respect as constitution and its laws and to exercise my role in the exclusive interest of the republic. the financial markets have reacted positively to the new government with shares in italian banks gaining more than three percent on friday but this is unknown territory for italy and the new administration is promising big changes the incoming interior minister matteo salvini head of the far
right league wants to expel hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants he's recently talked about setting up detention centers across the country while he's equally ambitious rival five star leader luigi to my old who the labor and industry minister has promised a basic minimum income then this is how italy will interact with the european union . a euro skeptic prevented from being economy minister just days ago it would be in charge of e.u. affairs and giovanni tria the replacement economy minister has criticised germany and called for changes in e.u. fiscal rules to allow more state investment three it can be a bit more of a diplomat and they played a good cop bad cop you know role play in any case what we have to expect from the two men and from this government is a much more vocal a standing of the things he wouldn't say against europe but in face of europe and
this is what is worrying and somehow international observers. the new cabinet should easily post a vote of confidence expected early next week but the real test will be whether this highly unusual coalition can hold together and push the reforms that many voters expect and many e.u. leaders fear nadeem bob al-jazeera really. well let's bring in our guest for today's inside story joining us from rome for their ego i didn't hear a professor of political science at the john cabot university in rome from brussels by skype is daniel grow director of the center for european policy studies and also in rome natalie director of the italian institute of international affairs and special advisor to the e.u.'s foreign policy chief editor rainy thank you all for being on the program we appreciate your time. in rome if i can start with you so the markets are breathing easier after the coming to power of this new coalition
government in italy but is this government good news for italy and is it representative of the italian people. it's a tricky question the first question is tricky the second is not it is certainly representative of the italian people because the two parties of the coalitions have collected an absolute majority combined have collected an absolute majority of all votes whether it is good or bad if you're asking me personally i don't think it's very good but i am a voter as many others and my opinion counts up to a certain point we will see what they will be able to do naturally you'll farce these are very strange bedfellows can this alliance of the five star movement and the northern league last long enough to make a dent in the political and economic life of italy especially when you consider that virtually no italian government to survive for five years can they last
together. well i think there's a sort of part of the answer has to do with policy and part second part of the answer has to do with politics i think when it comes to policy the issue in my mind really is to what extent are these two parties moving forward going to develop their stances on what i would define as a vertical if you are open closed access or rather as a basis of a horizontal left right axis now if the latter comes to play then indeed the tensions between these two parties are set to grow because it's very clear that the legality lies very squarely on the extreme right as is clear that the party start movement is basically split i would put this more or less on a sixty forty basis sixty eight towards the left forty towards the right so if if this develops horizontally if you like
a left right tensions are inevitably going to grow it instead they move forward by articulating their policies rather on the basis of a vertical open closed access and actually and this is the more worrying part of the story both are actually quite comfortable on the close camp and what i mean by the close camp is anything that goes from trade to ask a few towards a europe to migration basically sees them on a nationalist stance but then of course the other part of the of the question is it is the more political side and this will probably be determined to a large extent on the supports basis and supports of these two parties moving forward all right let's get danielle's views in brussels daniel as natalie said there are a lot of differences between these two parties in this coalition government there are many rivalries even between the two leading figures of the coalition government
my tail salvini and who's going to be really in charge you think. well i think these two will be in charge and they have a common interest common interest is to staying power. i do not think that care so much about who actually probably say second implemented and slow as they can say we are here we are the new expression of the people the old governments were of the only lead which has to be put into the dustbin and that common design a very unique fire that i'm going to produce stick together so and then send a very we'll see loss in this government for quite a long time but what kind of a program danielle are they going to be pushing through or that is the big question everybody asks that here in brussels we're actually insist on implementing it there are a few schools program which would mean less taxes and more expenditure and we all
know it's not possible rashness wind blew their knowledge period to to have a financial crisis before they actually acknowledged they had it too and i think what happened over this period has been a seller reminder for them that you cannot just only spend and therefore my prediction will be that there will be lots of the accolades lots of clashes with brussels but in the end the fiscal policy would not be that improved all right we'll take a further look at the implications for the european union in just a few minutes but i just want to get for the recall is taunts in rome on the domestic challenges ahead for this new government federico the new italian interior minister my tail the head of the league is very tough on immigration and has talked about expelling hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants he's talked about setting up detention centers around the country to have an asylum seekers. on the other hand the new labor and industry minister has talked about establishing
a basic universal income and cutting taxes now given its lease huge debt can they afford to push through with these policies. interesting question again i think you should ask a johnny to the the new minister of the economy who is an independent a so-called technician the disease an expert and doesn't really. belong to any of the two factions he will try to combine those very different platforms together and i have an idea of how he will be able to do so because as you have said the income the so-called citizenship income to translate the italian version is a very very dangerous commodity for a county that has such a big deficit as italy where will the resources be if extracted from is
a good question and there are serious expectations for this promise to be the liver i think mr the maior knows that he if he doesn't deliver within at least a year minimum a year maximum a year sorry he would run into trouble with he's a concede to unsee now with regards to mr so the it's. very brittle he could be very aggressive but i think he will have to come to terms with the of this installation and find out that the previous government over the past year or so has not handled the immigration issue badly i think he will grow more realistic there is one more thing if you allow me i would like to add nobody speaks to much about civil rights and the new minister of the family mr from tanna i think if there is trouble coming it will come from there because mr frum tanna is
notoriously against the civil rights he would try to roll back legislation in various the main family and you know same sex and so on the sole core of and this will certainly present. troubles some consequences as far as the reaction of the people is concerned natalie do you agree with that federico says a trouble will come from there's the civil rights and the civil rights issues and i also want to get your thoughts on you know their plan to reduce italy's debt that they're talking about what they call the revival of internal demand and by not continuing of austerity can it work to reduce italy's debt well i mean let me let me comment on all three i mean i think on the civil rights issue i think this is key and i completely agree with the assessment and i actually think this is going to be one of the issues which is going to. sort of exacerbate tensions between these two between these two movements when it comes to detonate
a bomb imprecision in general i'm fine with daniel there and it's very clear that you know there is a big wish list there mind you some of these wishes if we take for instance the requests not to include public investments in india in the calculations for the deficit this isn't an all. tyrion demands i mean the point is what you do when the answer to your demands is no and here is read as the broader question about the european as. of this night if the arts are is no just simply except to remain as parts of the european game or not and this is where the whole crisis with the previous sort of quasi appointment of suborn as economy minister came out to the extent that there was doubts in the president of the republic the
fullback position would have been an exit then the president rightly so puts a number of of markers that to prevent is the from sliding into the abacus so i agree there ultimately there's going to be lots of screaming and shouting but not much will change my mind you i think very similar argument can be made about migration again you know by using the dot in regulation has been an old italian demand in many respects for very good reason but the point is what do you actually do when be also coming from the rest of the e.u. member states is no and indeed sorry yet let's let's look at the wider implications now for europe of this new italian government the first populist government as we've said in western europe populism is greening strength in different parts of the european continent according to the tony blair institute for global change it analyze electoral results of one hundred two populous parties in thirty nine european countries over the last eight years and the study shows that
the number of populous parties in europe has almost doubled since two thousand and eighty three quarters are right wing populist are in power in seven eastern european countries bossed yeah bulgaria the czech republic hungary poland serbia and slovakia in western europe there are less prominent and part of the government of only two countries as a junior coalition partner in austria. in part of the swiss federal council in switzerland in scandinavia they have one increasing shares of the vote in denmark and sweden and they're represented in the governments of finland and norway populous parties in southern europe tend to be more leftist to study singled out greece where the syriza party is in power daniel i know you have written extensively about this europe's sloppiness parties and white wing as a chairing the the new italian government. you know can the e.u. so vive this rise of populism well that is the big question and i think it will
survive in the end but to be a tough crowd by the way it is a curious part of the example of having both right wing and let it be populism within one country which actually is natural in that the north part of it is quite where it all industrialized that it's more like north and europe where some of the problem to various conditions could come across from those of priests so within one country you have both left and right the populace and they form a government they are united in their desire to do something different to show that they will not accept your constraints and the an easy question is what is it difficult question for them is all along can they actually do it until reality bumps up against them and that is i think you are in the e.u. will become more popular again when people see that the e.u. might just be the only solution to the problems you're facing of the european problem and do you think that eventually they'll have to fall in line with e.u.
rules or is it sleazy you membership really at risk here as some have said i don't think that membership is ever is but what is. they have to question now is when will people realize that the constraints which come from your membership for example in the economic and financial sear these constraints actually help the country to become unstable and austerity might solid band but in the end with a country that has such a large head you don't have much of a choice to do it anyway and if it's not the e.u. which employs isn't it going to financial markets and people have to understand that as long as they don't they're going to remain against the euro once they have understood that this is just a fact of life they can get away with then maybe they would see that actually within the you were rather it is easier to deal with this problem if federico in romeo you'll find some would say this is a slap in the face of the e.u.
but is the block itself at risk with the rise of these populist bodies and now this first populist government in western europe. i am optimistic in the longer run and we also have the example of greece greece was terribly hit by a steri to measure is dictated by brussels or inevitably dictated not because brussels is a dictator but because greece has decided to stay within the you because every other alternative has been viewed by the people of greece as a negative so we have the example of greece and i think that based on that example i don't think any kountry besides the u.k. which however was not in the euro so it's a completely different issue i don't think any other county will walk out or even
get any closer to walking out but. blood sweat tears. are ahead of all of us in terms of you know austerity measures and needed. to fix. many many aspects of the situation so i don't see the us risk but i see going through a long phase of adjustment and hopefully not the economy or economy or. the country of growth now right where the is not coming or economic could decrease the economy decrease hopefully not ok hopefully the economy will grow again sooner or later which will of course will stop with the optimism and. the hopes for a brighter future and that's really not a lot of optimism right now i know you were closely with the european union's
foreign policy chief if a major country like italy which is one of the founding members in fact of the e.u. was to go against e.u. rules how big of a problem would that be for the bloc if she would be emancipated and but i must say that i really don't think this is going to happen i think that. indeed this is going to be a rough ride and i completely agree with with what has been said but i actually see it in an odd kind of way given that we are in an age of nationalist populism and the point is how do we exercise and eventually defeat the phenomenon i mean this is a i think that the role the institutions have to play being both national and of course european is absolutely key and in many respects if one is to see the silver lining of this particular drama is it is going to at the moment is precisely the story that the excesses of this government have been actually so far contained
in the formation of the government by the president institutions. still hold and this is true at national level it has proved to be to the national level and the point really is how will the european level how will greet me. paean institutions rules and regulations also contribute to containing the successes and reach channelling if you like it to be towards a different path and indeed a rough ride it will be but i'm actually very confident that there will not be a break here daniel us confident i mean the e.u. is no doubt reeling from the double shock of breck's it and the election of donald trump now it's also having possibly to deal with a trade war with the united states with these latest tariffs imposed by the trumpet ministration how does the. you know ride this wave you know the all the different challenges that are coming its way how does the e.u. defeat natalie said how does how do they defeat populism this new populism phenomenon. well you cannot really defeat populism but with this medicine to
diffuse itself. actually going to excesses and then people have to see that it doesn't lead anywhere that's the only way really it can be defeated not by it from brussels but in a sudden when the e.u. has been. pushed together the remaining us important together by trump to some extent by breck's it and i think the similar thing is happening in the financials here by you to the whole of the other countries in the union seeing what happens if you think that you can announce. fiscal expansion without having the money for it that's why countries like spain portugal ireland others which have had a crisis are saying never again and we certainly don't side with the italians so italians will be rather isolated and they will feel that actually what they want to
do cannot be done and in the end today in this sense i think the current framework for the euro might become stronger than before but they have to have reforms within the european union don't they i mean if they are to survive these various challenges that we've mentioned they have to have reforms you think they're ready to have those reforms. and that's the negative aspect of what is going on right now it. has become impossible to have actually a meaningful reform of the euro area of fiscal policy because there is an outcome you're going to get to the having a government in which you have parties that have said thought maybe we have an exit maybe if you are not on our holiday it may be going to hold on our ira treaty sniffy have signed before hand how can your house the germans manage the french and the other northern europeans to come through and new agreements between my own
roots which maybe in the end a country like italy will not respect and therefore i think defacto you have to admit that the reform of the euro area will be put on hold until the situation in italy i think into federico in rome and give you the last word different challenges that the european union is faced with right now not just within but also external challenges like perhaps a new ming trade war with the united states do you think the europeans can stay united can be united and strong enough to whether these challenges if you if you ask me if i am often issachar i'm optimistic in the long run but as i said there will be a lot of difficulties and as you noticed when reviewing the state of populist movements throughout europe sweden is a tree it's good to some extent because the democrats in sweden the so-called
democrats which are the populist party might gain a lot of seats in september when the elections are due it's the next the possible let's say element of. novelty so to speak but on the other hand i would like to address the question of what to do what to do to. the face of this new challenge is to accept the challenge and understand the figures the failures of the pro europe pro buddies ation. as it is called by the properties it's not an elite but it is called an elite if there is no understanding and no deep understanding of everything that happened there will no be not be any possibility of fixing this situation would be ok thank you so very much for a very interesting discussion. terry don young girl and not thank you for being on
this edition of inside story and thank you as well for watching don't forget you can always watch this program again any time by the sitting our website al-jazeera dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page at facebook dot com for slash inside story eight can of course join the conversation on twitter as well our handle is that a.j. inside story for me for the whole team thank you for watching i found out.
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