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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 175  Al Jazeera  June 25, 2018 2:32pm-3:01pm +03

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water the associated press news agency has collected videos showing hundreds of people walking away from buses and trucks as they head into the desert algeria's government hasn't commented but in the past it has denied that leaving migrants in the desert constitutes a rights abuse eight more people have been killed in ongoing violence in central nigeria bringing the number of dead over the past three days to ninety four the fighting in central plateau state involves mostly muslim herders and christian farmers president mahmoud abbas has called for calm and impose a twenty four hour curfew in the area the decades old conflict over land has escalated shopping this year leaving hundred stead in central states. those are the headlines inside story is next here on obviously a serious. is
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the battle for the rock decisive for the war in syria the province which was the cradle of the syrian revolution is under massive bombardment would victory for the government sick little an end to more than seven years of fighting and what are the regional implications of the battle this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program i'm dennis though it was graffiti in the city of daraa that spot syria's revolution in twenty eleven but what started as a peaceful uprising has turned into a war that has killed hundreds of thousands and it's up rooted millions is drawn in
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an assortment of foreign powers and now with the backing of russia iran and the lebanese militia hezbollah president assad is seeking to retake control of daraa one of the last remaining rebel held areas there are is in the far southwest of syria and government forces of massed in the region they're shelling and they're dropping barrel bombs and some reports suggest that they're getting support from russia in the air campaign but this was supposed to be a deescalation zone agreed by russia the united states and jordan well that agreements clearly now null and void much to the consternation of neighboring countries the u.s. has reportedly told the syrian rebels not to expect to military support in southern syria so why is there are so sensitive apart from it symbolic significance as a birth race of the revolution the province is considered strategically important it's on the border with jordan and it stretches all the way to these radio golan
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heights and as we've mentioned the u.s. russia and jordan agreed last year to include darragh as part of full so-called deescalation zones designed to reduce the fighting in syria. well syria's government has urged rebels to give up their weapons but so far they're refusing to recognize president bashar assad can and. we don't recognize assad's authority he has destroyed our cities and killed our people he destroyed syria to stay in power we will never recognize him and we reject the presence of the reigning and afghan militias it's only syrians who should decide the future of the country arliss introduce our guest now from beirut we have sami nada who is director of the levant institute for strategic affairs from london we have mahmoud no our retired jordanian air force general i'm from in italy via skype joshua landis director of the center for middle east studies at the
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university of oklahoma thank you all very much indeed for joining us can i start with you mark moon in london because the words there we've just heard of that f.s.a. commander suggest that any kind of political deal is not at all acceptable they're not prepared to accept the authority of the government of president assad so a battle is inevitable my question therefore is what sort of support do the rebels have and are they likely to be completely wiped out from this. i think they lost the whole support from the region and from the american and their friends. as the american suggested that they should put any assumption that the american will interfere on that region of southern part of joe the southern part of syria so i think they are in deep trouble. if i were them i'll go i'll stay on my land. keep the map as is and our last quarterly conciliation.
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that's will be another route a lot of people will be killed if the battle state or remain on and we see the next also with the russian air power which is dominant force and i think they should proceed on that direction because they will lose it at the end of it i don't want socialism but a lot of time what sort of weaponry what sort of results is that they have at their disposal they have life machinery and they don't have like heavy tanks or. defense should. be silent or even they're short of these things and i don't think the american or the bordering country would support and they should read that very carefully and they should. lead the battle very careful. to good decision on that and
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by doing that they will they will not give the regime just a vacation to keep on attacking them and killing these people i think is the biggest dictator in our part of the world and i don't think the syrian people got the solution to lift ticket reform or whatever ok they seem change and what the. interview said just the orion justa is this battle in the battle for the riaa is this a definitive moment in syria's war i it is a huge the war is largely come to an end there are two major three major pockets that were made that this southern one that we're talking about now yes it lip which turkey may try to hold on to and of course the large kurdish region in the north that persian arab region above the fray to the east that the united states. presently holds with it skirted and the arab allies there so those are the three
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areas that assad has promised to take back it's beginning with this one because it seems to be the most. least well defended and the most vulnerable because jordan ultimately wants to open the roads with damascus wants to get back on a regular footing damascus it wants to send refugees home the united states is not going to defend this region there are dozens of militias there including isis and hide out. how would an american what would america's long term plan b. if they intervened to save these militias when they help them establish a state with a protect them forever it's unclear and america has made it very you know very i think very clear that it's not going to do that right is he completes the arrangement was negotiated a year ago took more to use the united states wanted to fight isis today isis
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destroyed so the object which was to get syria and russia the united states and everybody focused on fighting heists is now no longer there and so that's why the syrian regime has turned its attention to take right ok sami coming to you we heard in the little clip from the f.s.a. command that their afghan militia is involved in the fight as well as as the well known raney and melissa is taking part on the on the side of the government but this is being described as a potential powder keg for a regional wide a regional fight a battle which is alarming many including the u.n. secretary general why is there are so sensitive an area in terms of the enver rule region. because it is in the solace and the solace of first syria. is the scene of confrontation between two major players.
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and iran let's not forget. the solace of syria was subject to. a deal between the jordan russia and america that was decided on in september of last year and it was confirmed during the summit between fourteen and trump last november and now this is a serious breach of this at the core of this he was training in the presence. is that iran demand was that iran has to be. forty to fifty kilometers from far from this border this is the core of the deed and today they said back to will decide that you're reigning in the presence and its capability to engage with since day one you're on was trying
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to change the rules of engagement. is retired so now russia is russia testing that ability of america to defend this deed is it trying to test that readiness of that effort as a all or that is a deal that has been already. decided on and russia which. according to which iran will withdraw from that is that i.e.d. border and in exchange of that russia is the claiming that this will be on that at this point all let's just say what do you think is that sammy seems to suggest that perhaps there is a deal that compose all of the policy. as to the conflict back from the brink or do you think that they are basically just ignoring the warnings that have been given
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by the united states that is prepared to take firm and appropriate measures if the regime continues to to. create violence in what is supposed to be this deescalation zone what do you think well i don't think that they really have come to a deal i think they have talked around the parameters as your guest just explains but iran has said we're staying israel has demanded that it leave altogether there doesn't seem to be any final agreement on the other hand. it seems quite clear that israel is capable of drawing red lines in syria it has attacked the iranians in the north up near book kemal in the south it has been very successful in destroying all of the potential iranian bases missile and planned to use it and so forth the united states i think is not stepping in it's made clear it will not step in because it believes that israel is perfectly capable of defending
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itself in this region that its air force and its and its technology is far superior to the iranians now that doesn't mean that the iranians are going to sit back they make them to you to probe we just saw you know in the last twenty four hours that a drone was sent towards the goal line israel sent up rockets against it it turned around there is going to be this kind of jousting i believe and iran is repositioning of selcuk but israel is quite capable and certainly very able to attack syria at will and i don't think that anybody is really worried that israel is going to be pushed into the sea all right i'm sick all right mamoun just how has described will what could happen to be of the series of just staying as if you like but at the end of the day it is a small fragile jewel that is going to bear the brunt of any escalation of the cove
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in this particular region how fragile is jordan at this moment. very fragile and with only respect i disagree with fully with your previous speak speak about that system and see the escalations on never meant that it's a save even or demobilize zone and what that meant really is the staying said stay in power and regain the territory for him. the it in an invasion expansion what part of it is a day to get limited capability to stop the iranian man over ability in the area or politically and militarily so. these coalitions on has no meaning now after the regime got there are back for jordan yes it's a matter of time and there will be regained the nessie but crossing. to jordan that's very important crossing point and the main concern of joel that is the chaos
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and they're the future with our intend the problem now consenting economy and some instability i could say in jordan now regarding changing prime minister with all this influx of refugees that sort of be a big trouble. effect of what demography and our way of life and our economy ought absolutely i mean we've all seen the rise and began we've all seen those as though that demonstrate all this land you know may i may carry on about in a five second only board never been based on promises and guarantee as there many can. way of doing things promising the it habitants initially and all of sudden they cover them back and this is the way they do it. also avoid all the dishes not base their strategy on promises and guarantee from them eric and they should have
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a plan b. to stop or force a save haven for these provisions because jordan cannot take it anymore and it's very difficult situation we are absolutely in sami because of course we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there are civilians who are pretty much pinned in they've got a close border with jordan and they've got an encroaching military attack coming their way what do they do what do these hundreds of thousands of civilians do. yeah exactly and that are you have more than eight hundred thousand civilian living there and if these military developments will lead to a new flood of refugees to to jordan jordan it's like lebanon in a very funny tidal situation not the only politically like in lebanon but economically i mean would it we're talking about an economic collapse of two
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regions or two countries that are bordering syria and if this is to happen it will have really very damaging consequences on all that region we have seen that about two million refugees a threat and the whole europe of i would not say collapse but put europe in big trouble in jordan and lebanon we are talking about four million syrian refugees for a total population of sixty eight million so this is to put things in perspective our i think secretary of the united nations has had likewise were in saying that this has to stop at least to. to contain or to stop a possible new flood of refugees that will have a very damaging consequences on the region absolutely said joshua how can this be
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averted i'm particularly taken by a report by the international crisis group which suggests that given that the rebels cannot mount any kind of credible military defense they need to be party to some sort of agreement some sort of deal whereby the state the state of president assad we takes control of the area and they agree on how to be governed. yes the the international crisis group put out a very good reports it for saddam who the reality is that you are drawn out in this program which is that there could be a big flood of refugees into jordan which could destabilize that region and it hoped that america would put pressure on the refugees to draw to withdraw from the region and not to put up
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a fight so that it would not turn into the root of the problem with this however is that the revenue us are determined to stay in place at least that's what they've set up and i think that they're trying to use the anxiety and the leverage of a potential flood of refugees into jordan's in order to get the united states and local powers to step in to put pressure on us and to try to use that as leverage and so this is a game of chicken that we're seeing right now it's you know everybody agrees that the rebels do not have the downs of power in their favor that they can survive but they want better terms they want somebody to come in and provide them with guarantees which will be negotiable when and how we get there it's unclear what the americans can guarantee them whether it's money whether it's a safe haven someplace i don't know and that muff moon it seems very much as they
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time is is certainly not on their side barrel bombs are already being dropped and we're understood we understand that the russians will planes have taken to the skies as well so this was a fed dead is actually under way isn't it said how long do you think it will take before the region is devastated and we see this humanitarian crisis that sammy has already outlined. it's very difficult to predict. when the war in seven hours and that will be over but i i think the russian injury engineer. sort of understanding with the is very eagerly that the allow the syrian army to come to buffer zone one nine hundred seventy four nearby the goal line in jordan which is the most critical thing. from a plan out there i would not rely on american guarantee and promises to govern that
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they should have planned be by asking the formal international community to go for save haven for these three g.'s near by the jordanian border border i think this is the least jordan can do and they should leave till the war that we cannot can take any more. syrian into our part of the war zone or they are our brothers and but that would be absolutely amazing we understand the pressure and the engine and sami obviously the same fate for your country isn't it for lebanon the pressure of this flood of desperate people is almost too much to bear what alternatives do you see what sort of pressure can be brought to bear do you think that could have this military confrontation that we seem to be witnessing already. i think the only solution to one and only solution for decide if you do crisis is to ensure safe zones in syria and to ensure i mean
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a safety turn for dos refugees the fighting has the start doesn't it something the fighting has to stop the fighting casters has to stop this is true but in some regions of the fighting has been stopped and practically all of your syria that is no fighting anymore and serious effort can be done to ensure at least the return of some of those refused. perhaps not all of them but some of them and the same could be said for the region of homs and of damascus but the question is giving that this city engineering of syria their demographic the engineering of syria is this question of that it turn of that if you that if you g.'s is really on that they burn or there is a poker game here that we have that we are hearing some diplomatic words by
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but on the ground we are witnessing a different reality about a vision of syria or engineering of syria based on new demographic and ethnic awards absolutely just so that's an interesting point isn't it because the shifting of democracy is has been one of the catch characteristics of this war and many people of course so alone is to give up the region in which they live and be forcibly moved to another part of the country completely which has happened in ghouta and other places as well and they're all being fenced in almost in a province in the northwest of the country this is one of the great fear is isn't it of civilians. absolutely and everybody knows that when the regime returns one has to give up their political rights and they will no longer have freedom of expression and they'll be frank about that those who have joined the revolution to support it openly will possibly be jailed and and discriminated against this is
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this of course the terrible fear and he we see it you know the big the big question is will the refugees return to syria if there is not regime change and many eight analysts are very divided on this question you see many reports by the carnegie foundation others saying that refugees will not return as long as so long as assad stays in power i've heard many others say i there are skeptical of this if the economy stability were to return to something some sort of stability and normalcy but people might go back because conditions are not going let not many people don't want to live in turkey and the turks are trying to push them out the jordanians at time push them out so it's unclear. what the international community what stand it should take because the united states and
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many others have said they're not going to help rebuild they don't want to help the economy this will only consolidate assad's our religion a minus him and not lead to regime change the united states is still at least orally says that it wants ultimately assad to leave through elections and it's going to put pressure on economic pressure so this this is a bigger question and it's still up in the air and there and it's the civilians down below who are being caught in the clashes between rebel and regime and between the west and the east iran and saudi and saudi arabia so the people of syria are still not out of the woods and cold. hard fact on which to end this conversation gentleman thank you all very much indeed sami nada talking to us from beirut marc moon talking to us from london and just for landis talking to us from
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in italy thank you very much indeed and as ever thank you for watching you can see the program again any time you like by going to the website al-jazeera dot com is the address should you want more discussion you can get to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story and the you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a.j. inside story for me martin dennis and the whole team here is by finance. thank you. south america australia critics.
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call an. edge of food. let me see today. and that is probably put me in the street. it's safe to cross the makes sense to say it's too close to. call. same. street. just as. they. come up. unless we have new generations growing up to understand that other nation of ship
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of the natural then soon no will be nothing left and will suffer primatologist and conservationist dr jane goodall towards to al-jazeera. african heads of state and government will gather in mauritania for the thirty first assembly of the african union ongoing conflicts in the fight against corruption will take center stage al-jazeera will bring you extensive coverage of a summit and its outcomes the african union summit on al-jazeera.
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al-jazeera. and. where every. so there were a calendar all these the top stories on al-jazeera turkish president which up type is returning to office with sweeping new powers after an election victory that he's calling a win for democracy he secured more than fifty percent of the vote meaning there will be no runoff the main opposition candidate said the election was unfair but as accepted the result n.j. warned that one's growing power is a danger to the turkish state. has more on the public reaction from istanbul the election was full of surprises especially for instance add ons unexpected majority in the first round it was welcomed by his supporters and by many media outlets saying that.

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