tv Inside Story 2018 Ep 249 Al Jazeera September 7, 2018 10:32am-11:01am +03
the far right league party were convicted of using electoral funds to buy diamonds gold and other luxury items the party is now in government led by the deputy prime minister matteo salvini he says he never saw the missing millions the un voice in yemen says planned talks between the government and two of the rebels won't take place on friday in geneva the delegation says has been unable to travel and i phone curfew has been lifted in the southern iraqi city of basra a clampdown was ordered on thursday during a fourth day of violent protests public anger has been rising for weeks now over government corruption a lack of jobs and basic services to those are your headlines so far today the news continues on this channel after inside story i will see you very soon but i. as india was updating its citizenship records around four million people in the state are at risk of becoming stateless. deals with. infantry these are the majority of both. how does it michael both sides of this issue talk to
al-jazeera. will there be a nuclear free north korea kim jong un says his faith in the u.s. president remains unshaken donald trump responds with get it done together can the denuclearization deadlock be broken this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program. a nuclear free korean peninsula before donald trump's first in twenty twenty one that's the latest mess has just south korean diplomats from north korea's leader kim jong un's also hinting at an official and to the korean war and agreeing to
a third summit with south korea's president later this month rob mcbride has more from seoul. news that this into korean summit will take place had been expected nonetheless confirmation of it has come as something of a relief given the state of stored relations between pyongyang and washington south korea's security chief. has been briefing the blue house the presidential office here in seoul and also the media the event will take place in pyongyang between the eighteenth and the twentieth of september as also reported that north korea remains very much committed to the whole process for the denuclearization on the long term peace of the korean peninsula state run television in north korea has been showing the meeting between kim jong un and the south korean delegation it has all been smiles and handshakes it is also being confirmed that the south korean delegation
has been given a personal message from kim jong un to convey to the americans and to president donald trump presumably this is a message of goodwill expressing that north korea is still very much wanting to continue the dialogue of peace can continue the dialogue with washington but chong did also expressed the view that kim jong un is feeling a sense of frustration that according to kim it has been north korea that has made a lot of the concessions such as the dismantling of some of its nuclear testing sites and that the international community and for that you can read the united states has not reciprocated in kind. so what's a blocking progress in the denuclearization discussions since kim and trump's summit in june one sticking point is the north demand for a peace treaty to formally and the korean war the u.s.
thinks declaring an end to the war could weaken the norse resolved. to give up its nuclear weapons the americans say they've already made concessions such as put in joint military exercises with south korea or hold the north wants sanctions is and donald trump blamed is sufficient progress in denuclearization for calling our secretary of state mike bumpy years visit last month let's bring in our panel joining us on skype from vienna laura rockwood executive director of the vienna center for this armament and nonproliferation from her son in south korea robust kelly professor of political science and diplomacy at percent national university and from saw via skype is c. one coup publisher of the korea exposing. laura do you think that the
north korea south korea summit which is going to be held by the end of this month will help settle the nuclear impasse i think it will contribute to a possible settlement of the impasse i think there are some conversations that need to go on between the two koreas about their expectations of the peninsula flutes and so critically the bilateral relationship between the two koreas is very important i think this idea of peace agreement arlan ensler is lowered to and wouldn't be that difficult to achieve but one would expect that given that this is something that the north koreans are interestingly and that the u.s. would want a quid pro quo through or rubber this is going to be the third summit between north and south korea leaders. is there any chance this one would produce some sense of
breakthrough or do you think it's just going to be part of the confidence building measure the has been going on for quite some time will certainly be a part of the confidence building measures right mean the more often the two koreas meet the more it creates the sense of joint movement on both sides that's one of the reasons why the south korean leadership i think is pursuing these things i do think there is a possibility of a breakthrough but it's i think it's a small one. basically the americans are not satisfied that the north koreans have given up much in the last eight months the north koreans think they've given up a lot and that's basically the impasse the north koreans want a peace treaty the americans think that's a large concession and north korea has not earned it and i think probably the best thing that could come from the next in your korean summit is that jane can get some kind of major concession from the north koreans to convince hawks in seoul and to convince the united states that north koreans are really serious the north koreans are prepared to make a genuine strategic concession and see when this is the first time though that team
don't go and says that there's going to be a time line of that his is somehow confident denuclearization would happen before the end of twenty twenty one that statement on its own could be could be seen as something quite significant. well certainly if you're to talk to the south korean government here they would tell you that this is a very significant statement in fact the presidential spokesperson even made a point of having a separate meeting this afternoon to emphasize the fact that kim jong un is actually proposing a very specific timeline and this is something that we have not seen before it also goes to underscore the kind of importance that is being placed on the role of mr donald trump. despite all of the political problems that he's having domestically there seems to be suggesting to the three of us not really think that any kind of agreement can be beat if they want to deal with the traditional republican
establishment or even democrats for that matter the fact that mr trump is something of an anomaly is precisely what contributes to any possible progress in this. process laura what does it take to break the impasse what do you think should be the next step. i think there need to be some discussions about what is not denuclearization i think president trump is operating under the misapprehension that deal clear is ation need definitively that the north koreans will give up their nuclear weapons are i think that's a long time to look for me and i think you need overly optimistic. so i think it's going to take some considerable discussion about what we need by denuclearization of the north korean speak about denuclearization of the entire peninsula i think president trump is look there is
a she needs no one nuclear weapons in north korea and i think there need to be east war know what's conversations between the two parties and a greater specificity and agreement on what they need by these terms. what we're stuck into this dilemma about how to move forward from a north korean perspective what should confer is the security guarantees they appear the peace declaration and u.s. troops pulling us from south korea and the the that does not seem to be a top priority for the americans so how to move out of this don't limit. you know like i said i actually think it's quite difficult to move out of that i think the stalemate is actually rooted in all very long strategic and political division between the north koreans and the united states i actually don't think that this peace movement this year is likely to result in a breakthrough if anything it will probably the best you can probably do is
actually fall back to sort of a small step process where united states and north korea make a series of small deals building towards a substantial one that's probably the best case scenario the worst case scenario is that we fall back into basically detente and contain are can the terms of containment of north korea like we've done for the last seventy years is the issues between the u.s. and north korea are gigantic it's hard to solve them in such a rapid period of time donald trump is grossly on qualified to do this he doesn't understand the issues he doesn't prepare he came to singapore on ready to really do this in a serious way i do think the north koreans are pretty serious but the americans are weak counterparty right now because the white house is so disorganized. it's possible that one gene can get something that can can so that will buy off hawks in seoul and in washington d.c. but it's got to be something substantial the north koreans need to give up a warhead or the engine shows something about missiles and you give us a facilities list there's a lot of things the north koreans can do but the north koreans just haven't earned it yet this summer i mean giving some m.i.a. returns back and hammer unions these are minor gestures these are not the kind of
strategic issues that my campaign wants to negotiate about ok c. will do you think well it was a failure to go to the summit in singapore without setting out the framework of a genuine clear. political process the sloss with a and with z. . well this is not certainly what we have heard from foreign media about to singapore summit i think there's a lot of criticism about the fact that there doesn't seem to be any country to cheat when it is a lot of this is a story meeting between him and trump if you want to look at the south korean side however they would disagree they would say that what was really needed it was one time was a very strong gesture of goodwill between these two countries that have been historically was with each other and that precisely is what is going to contribute toward peace but obviously what we're having problem with now is determining the
specifics of how to move forward how will support really the needs iraq is and what kind of concessions with united states offer in return we have seen we might bump a zero zero zero visit to coming out last time then most korea's not interested in giving up its nuclear arms without having any specific guarantees in place and that's really been doing a source of in this discussion we've been for it and this offering government recognizes that the next step is really to make sure that north korea at least has some concrete gesturing place namely offering a list of nuclear facilities that that be will be enough for interim inspection by the international community and that in between aren't americans also nice little for something in return as well which is basically the declaration to end the korean war and not actually a peace treaty that is premature to say at this point but isn't this trick
a lower i mean if you look at every direction it will bring you back to square one tom says that he wants a complete denuclearized a show that is very verifiable and irreversible but then the question again how can you implement that. you have to first agree on what are the necessary elements of denuclearization will they agree to or who are touring weapons testing lyrically who are touring on missile testing including satellite launching willing then agree to dismantlement of their enrichment reprocessing facilities or at a minimal to commit not to continue to operate those facilities there are so many issues that need to be result now talking about them and there's a lot better than where we were a year ago but make no mistake if they are not easy steps it isn't baby stats
there this is complete verifiable irreversible dismantlement you want to hear the north koreans using that. and so i think that's really where i will part of it and that's the unfortunate thing about the the whole so-called destruction of the test site and the missile test sites you need to have external bodies verify that you have a year or whether they decide that you need some external verification not just assertion on the part of the north koreans. they claim to have done robert but then again the north koreans would say that they have done their own and of the. of the deal like dismantling the society freezing the missile engine facility of a very for the americans to reciprocate. yeah that's right and the united states
can reciprocate with some smallish gestures also sanctions relief aid allowing south korean projects in north korea to go forward those are all small things that the north koreans have earned if you will through these various actions but as was said before by your other guests right if it isn't verified it's hard to really know so when they said they blew up the test site for example we don't actually know that ray saw an explosion on t.v. it could have just been the entrance tunnel we don't actually know there's also a lot of suspicion that that test site was basically corrupted because they've been overused and if the north koreans and again the mountain would have imploded and released radiation like trying noble or something like that right i mean this is why we need that extra pair of occasionally the north koreans have cheated a lot in the past strategic trust between the united states and north korea's very low to be fair to the north koreans united states has also cheated on nuclear treaties with rogue states most obviously with libya seven years ago are ten years ago right so there's low strategic trust on both sides which is why these big grand gestures are sort of denuclearization exchange for peace treaty these large things they're just not going to happen what we need to do is kick this back down to the working level and lead diplomats start making small steps and build toward
something more substantial this is just not a big bang approach is just not going to work and once the american election said after the midterms the democrats take the house of representatives and trump is embroiled in investigations and scandal all this is going to disappear in twelve weeks the trauma administration is not going to be talking about north korea suing i mean if just robert talking about the domestic implications of the deal on my top annex do you think that. the south korean president is taking over those things into consideration and what would be the options available for him then. absolutely i think that's precisely why there has been such a sense of urgency in south korea in dealing with the north korean situation. experts here have been speaking time and again about the importance of ensuring that this process can be completed within a reasonable to planning period because once mr trump is losing his political capital it's really difficult to say it what is going to happen we have seen from
the american political establishment that they are very firmly committed to the traditional approach to dealing with north korea namely ensuring that sanctions remain very strong it adding to the pressure that is placed on the north korean economy so they're coming out has no choice but to turn and essentially capitulate to the demands made by the international community by telling from the south korean side there is this understanding that perhaps this is not the approach that has worked in the past and it's not the approach it's going to work in the future and this is a very small window of opportunity we're looking at and it really very much opens the point slightly mr donald trump term as president laura against the back to what has been said so far don't to think that the bed to now falls on the south korean president to try a to convince the north koreans about the need to agree on
a an agenda for the talks about what just ought and and wetter. but i think it is a shared burden but i think it is singularly motivated to do that and i think it's going to take that through this process to further my fear however is that you have both him jump and president trump thinking this is going to be the solution to our problems and they might try to hurry up and yet in deal there will be either complete their idle or irreversible in any least act and there will be such a rush to get an agreement that you may hand up with a deal it's a very bad deal all around the point of view and security so i think the president will is your nealy motivated to make sure that if there is a deal that it protects south korea's security interests as well and the only way to do that is i getting north korea to actually negotiate on some of these issues
that it's and as rigid about as the united states is and robert so what it ultimately boils down to bilateral talks between the north koreans and south koreans there would break the impasse and pay the ground for comprehensive talks that would include the americans or do you think that this issue in particular require is the help of have the ways in the region by the russians or the tinies for example. yeah any kind of final status deal in korea war choir at minimum the assent of the two koreas the united states and the chinese it would be nice if the japanese and the russians agreed but ultimately they're peripheral players on this it would be ideal certainly korean patriots will tell you that it should just be the two koreas that would obviously be ideal in my opinion but given that china and the united states are so vested here realistically it's simply impossible i think those are the four relevant players right now it's really come down the stalemate i
think between the united states and north korea the south koreans can kind of play a bit of a bridging role i think that's one of the things moon is hoping to do when he goes to pyongyang right but like i said i mean ultimately he's got to do is he's got to get something that will convince the americans that this process is leaning towards denuclearization the americans are not interested in the detente that the south koreans are pursuing with north korea united states doesn't particularly think that's a good idea the united states really want is some kind of arms control language from the north koreans right and we haven't really gotten that i mean at least we got that timeline by the end of the trumper ministration but you know we don't so we don't have the facilities list we still have a warhead i mean we know we're missing a lot right and you know and family reunions and that's just that that kind of stuff is just not real that's not strategic and the north koreans are kind of dancing around the issues so we're waiting to see well not just about a few months ago everyone thought that the region could be on the brink of a catastrophic confrontation no north korea leader kim jong un is talking about
turning the peninsula into a cradle of peace and stability do the south koreans trust him when he says. well this is an ideologically divided country and certainly even in response to visit by special envoy to tell me out yesterday you could see just how that division plays out we have seen welcoming messages coming from the ruling party and the faction that represents the political left they say this is an important gesture on the part of north korea we are firm its commitment to the nuclear rights you shown you talk to the conservatives they every say it's the same old same old and it really doesn't change anything we need to see comprehension and not just words by if you want to look at what the government itself is doing what the president of blue house is doing it is very clear that the government the scenary seriously and they do believe that there is full and one thing that really needs to
be mentioned at this point is the process that the new player has even though it's korea from the perspective of the presidency is not just about this in the accusation but also about opening up north korea up to a point of an economic reform and also nurturing a certain sense of economic dependence on the part of tongue out on south korea and to have playing out its base the rewards of what it's like to open up and reform and liberalize and that's where a lot of the attention has been being a at least on the part of the problems here but it's certainly not getting a lot of attention sights of the real. if talks between north and south korea leads us collapse what it what would it mean for the future of a genuine rise ation. oh i think i think that will be. to be a real that indication or promise having said that as i mentioned i think
president trump is so motivated to get a win especially in light of what robert referred to that the current chaos in the white house he so looking for a reason that he might push forward any way one could imagine that kind of scenario that's a travesty i think it's a little naive to assume that jim john woo's will get rid of the single thing that i asked him to the negotiating table anyway and certainly not any time soon but i have i think even if the south north conversation falls apart i think trump is going to be i think he's going to be trying to meet any that personal relationship that he says he has been with him john when it will be pressing for a win because he will need one politically in the united states for him to name and asked robert v. if you pour yourself into the show's over north korea leader is someone who should be in our reading history books. all the countries before him the start of talks
with the americans about dismantling their own programs be it iraq or. libya their leaders were completely abandoned by the americans i think you should in a way or another who should be concerned i could be also ditched by the americans if i dismantle my weapons. absolutely there's a very obvious reason why the north koreans build nuclear weapons anomalies say milosevic sure you know it's a great strategic choice for the north koreans to build weapons it's very rational we don't like it but it's pretty easy to explain why they have them and this is also why they're not going to give them up we should be talking about complete disdain nuclearization verifiable c.v. idea we should be saying those things the north koreans are not going to do that that creates artificial expectations just like six months ago on people talking about the president getting a nobel prize that was just preposterous none of these things are going to happen right at best we're probably going to get is a freeze where north korea is right now maybe we get some minor rollbacks maybe the
north koreans give us a couple of warheads we can come up and look at them right maybe they'll blow torch some missiles for something maybe we'll get them back in the eye a but these are minimal steps there are things are just not going to give all this stuff up the united states is just not a credible partner united states as you said is sort of well it's done deals in the past most obviously with libya i mean the north koreans say it was all the time you know if gadhafi to have these things he'd still be alive you guys cheated on the deal that analysis is basically correct so both sides have huge credibility problems those problems are bad lead to worsen by the behavior the trump administration doesn't keep his deals he's been cheating on his contractors and creditors and everybody else for decades he's probably going to cheat on the north koreans to the north koreans know that this is nothing very little is going to come of this and it's certainly not going to come of it in this sort of shotgun marriage speed everything is taking place in eight weeks this whole thing needs to slow down and go to the expert level we have to live with the boats kelly see it will cool book would thank you very much indeed. and thank you for washing your can see the program again and its time by visiting our website dot com for further discussion
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