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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 324  Al Jazeera  November 21, 2018 2:32pm-3:01pm +03

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in fact the u.s. congress feels much differently that's why they have sent this letter triggering the global magnitsky act the u.n. envoy for yemen has arrived in the capital sana'a to meet the leaders in the latest push for political talks between moring sides griffiths wants to stop conflict in the port city of data the port city is vital for the supply of aid afghanistan has declared a day of national mourning after at least fifty five people were killed in an attack on the capital more than eighty others were wounded a gathering of religious scholars was targeted russia says there was outside pressure that influence the outcome of a vote to elect the new president of the world's largest police agency interpol south korea's kim jong yang was elected after a strong endorsement by u.s. secretary of state mike pompei. its inside story next stay with us.
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no room for politics in israel's security the words of benjamin netanyahu as he tries to hurt a snap election the process began on to his defense minister resigned over a ceasefire in gaza but cannot tell you who saved his wife when coalition this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu has
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now released survived a possible collapse of his coalition government education minister enough taliban at what turn to pull his party from netanya has coalition after cease fire in gaza but he announced that he and his party will stay on and give netanyahu one more chance if bennett had resigned netanyahu would have been left with a minority government making snap elections likely this all began when defense minister avigdor lieberman resigned last week he was angered by a cease fire agreement with armed groups in gaza he called it. to terror israel and hamas has engaged in one of the heaviest fighting in recent years as prime minister netanyahu has warned against playing politics with what he called israel's security . in a period of sensitive security like this it is irresponsible to take down the government
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where there are partners of the side to take down the government or not we will continue to act to ensure the security of the state and that of our citizens we will do so with wisdom responsibility and determination this is what now taliban it's hard to say when he announced his decision to stay in governments. i mean many i know i'll pay a political price it's not the end of the world you win some you loose arm it's better than the prime minister impeach me in a political battle then hamas leader is middle high neo injury. let's bring in our guests in jerusalem yoni ben menachem political analyst in tel aviv dalia sandlin columnist of last nine seventeen magazine and public opinion analyst and joining us from philadelphia on sky gil hoffman chief political correspondent of the jerusalem post welcome to the program let me start with mr
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yoni do you think the coalition would be able to hold together for the time being. i think for the time being they will be able to hold the coalition but i think if your man's two or three months that will have to go to early elections because there will be a lot of pressure on the coalition the pressures from the. the other parties from the opposition and also. the security situation is not stable and. the problems in gaza are are now maybe on the low fire. i expect that the problems will start again in gaza and the government will have to take if you see actions military actions and this will bring the coalition in to a dead end and they'll have to go to early elections dalia when you look at the latest
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statements from the different partners of the coalition you're think that netanyahu has managed to weather the storm however this is to be a twist here with moshe cullen of the parties think basically that he won't support the gideon saab bill prevent the president from choosing. anyone who is not a party leader to become prime minister could this be an indication that car loan is basically saying i'm not on board one hundred percent. i think so i think that all of these kinds of statements and decisions about how to vote on any one bill are primarily a way of the coalition partners saying we accept this coalition we don't accept this coalition and over the last couple of days of course we all thought for a while that naftali bennett of the jewish home party were ready to leave the coalition and together with cotland out of taliban to change his mind and cost alone is sort of left trying to decide i think whether to stay in or not and so this is his way of saying i haven't decided yet but if everybody knows the coalition is fragile that the yahoo is not out of the water of course we're in an
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election year either there will be early elections or at at the longest period of time elections will happen in any case by november the only question is you know i think that the we expect the coalition to last anywhere between a few weeks and a few months and maybe you know an off chance that it will last a year but i think auckland is certainly the decision maker for now and there could be as my colleague pointed out other deal breakers in the future ok gil i mean it's quite interesting the change of mind by enough taliban it's what do you think trigger it's about face about the man who just a few days ago was saying basically i'm not so boys are less appealing to defense minister but suddenly he's saying i'm going to give netanyahu one last chance. and netanyahu put a tremendous guilt trip on after all the bennett he appealed to the religious scientists right and voters have enough tell you bennett have been scarred by past elections in which they caused elections that were won by the israeli left and led
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to the oslo peace process and other developments and netanyahu had his top people speak to the rabbis that are closest and after all the bennett and bennett still could be appointed defense minister doesn't look like it right now and it's now seems an advert with the job. uni of the way the way nuff tali been this came out publicly saying that basically i'm sorry about what i said and therefore i'm going to give netanyahu another chance isn't this something that could undermine his chances to stay lido the party or could further weaken his own party. well i don't think so i think that the party by to u.t.v. is very happy with the naftali bennett leadership i think ian miscalculated in the gave an ultimatum to the prime minister and this was a mistake the prime minister put him in the corner and. use that all his
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influence to put pressure on the it religious leaders of. the you were the party and they put pressure on them and on bennett in the you had to do big dumb so way i think we skulk you lay the situation and see basically. that the politicians should not give the ultimatum to prime minister this was a big mistake for him but he still has a chance to correct it in the future done this line by netanyahu which is basically scrutinised by the israeli pundits and the israeli media when he said that it's irresponsible to bring down the government in the midst of the sensitive security situation. is there any hint here what if he was here directing the nation well of course i mean israel is always in the middle and israel is always in the middle of the most sensitive security situation i think what's remarkable is that year after year election cycle after election cycle we are in the most sensitive
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security situation according to the politicians not to say that there aren't very serious security threats and challenges but you know the thing is that i think that's up there for the politicians on the right they have come to realise that that is essentially their only real selling point they have not proposed any sort of wider ranging longer ranging plan for a political resolution to the conflict and it's on yahoo likes to talk a lot about his foreign policy successes good economic indicators but when it comes to a hard core political fight security is the thing they always fall back on and the interesting thing is that you know while israeli society does remain weighted to the. right largely you know it's just under half of israelis who consider themselves right wing it's still the biggest constituency and the issue of security still unites them what we are seeing is that centrist parties in other words their voters are not really buying that line anymore incidents and yahoo falls back on it to try to shore up his base and compete with the right but what we solve are the
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last cycle is that the last two cycles in the in the previous cycle in twenty fifteen when we had elections we now have after that we have two parties who are considered centrist they have twenty one seats together and the previous cycle we have one centrist party that got one thousand nine hundred seven those parties don't seem to be going anywhere and in fact most polls show that the center parties stand to grow modestly in future elections that will be held this year which means that they are taking to some extent from the left we know that some of those people have left labor that's why the zionist union labor party is down so low but i you know a number of them also come from the right and i think that it's interesting to consider what are the limits of the security narrative and it's a there are a lot of mainstream israelis who may even be somewhat right leaning they say nobody's going to abandon security there's always a security crisis a good how about center i would like to take that particular point to gild which is basically don't you see it as a gamble when suddenly the problem is a sauce to cling around
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a very complex political landscape where the. white wing has been somehow the majority for quite some time by way of the centrist could move or a little bit too was the left is this something that factoring in and a decision making process in the near future in israel. it's now believes he could win any election any time and because of that he's taking other considerations into account and i'm going to beg to differ with my friend dalia i think one of the reasons why it's the out doesn't want to have the election right now when he talks about security development happening what he's talking about is what's going on in washington this week where donald trump is convening the advisers closest to him on the middle east share a question or a son in law and senior advisor the embassador from the united states to israel david friedman has flown into washington for this meeting in the middle east peace coordinator jason green blatt about the final content of the deal of the century planned and on has been working on for so long and perhaps it's now sees that plan
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that's fully korten dated with him as the kind of step that would improve israeli security permanently and needs to be done right now if there was an election going on that man would be delayed by another several months and maybe never even appen if this is the key to israel's security future then it's now needed to delay this election but could really explain why jani let's expand a little bit further on that particular idea by gil let's suppose the americans decide to announce they all to deal in a way though with till the ground in favor of netanyahu however we know absolutely nothing about the components of that deal its fate of jewish. final deal with the palestinian security arrangements the rights of the refugees and we don't know whether all the key players in the region i mean to what extent can we say that this is something that could be conducive to
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a massive political gain for netanyahu. i don't think so i think that this will be a big mistake if the president from presenting your peace plan now in this time being because conditions are in the situation he's not ready for this such a big development to the palestinians are boycotting it is splendid boycotting demonstration. the saudis. mohamed bin some on his in a deep problem there's nobody to move it convenes the moderate arab world to accept in a deal with the time you know we have to make concessions. new deal that was the trouble with he said that these will have to pay a price for their recognition of jerusalem as this is the capital of israel so i think. this is a threat to to netanyahu and if this it deal will be presented before the israeli elections it will have components that are not convenient for the right wing it and
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you know will be the big problem to it too except of such a plan. c. they would like to jump in the i have to say that i disagree i'm going to i'm going to respectfully disagree with both of my friends and colleagues here and to some extent with you because i think first of all we do know or we can assess or anticipate some of the aspects of the plan we know that it's probably going to be something like netanyahu talks about in terms of a state minus it will not be full sovereignty for a contiguous palestinian state we know that it will involve involve a large component of economic development which might sound good but if it's a replacement or a substitute for full independence it will not feel like a good prospect for the palestinians and we know that israel already has its capital in jerusalem secured we have no idea what it will offer to the palestinians for that reason i think actually it's going to look pretty good for an attorney i hope it's going to look like a victory that the u.s. president proposed the kind of plan that in the ten yahoo unself essentially talked
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about back in two thousand and and nine. speech not that different a very very circumscribed kind of palestinian state or entity with with not too much freedom the kind of thing the palestinians wouldn't accept under any circumstances first and foremost because as my colleague said about these they're not talking to the american government right now as a result i think that just means it's going to look good for natanya who it's his kind of plan and the palestinians will reject it and the truth is it i think it'll look ok for him but i don't think it will change his electoral fortunes it certainly won't attract from them as i see it because of the reasons i said and i doubt if it will bring him any new votes although it will just reaffirm that he is in his in the eyes of his base a leader of global standing who's tight with trump good against the backdrop of what we've been seeing so far do you think that netanyahu will pursue a whole course approach when it comes to gaza or do you think that it's about time for him to start somehow a reconsider three attempt to try to defuse tension. fascinatingly
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know you will not pursue a hodge podge when it comes to gaza and the reason why that i heard from his closest advisors is one word al jazeera. they don't want to have bad pictures coming from gaza on al-jazeera when it's me i was trying to improve his relations with the gulf states he just visited oman got pursued very well there flew over saudi arabia to get there which is amazing that's never been done before by an israeli prime minister the same refutable garin didn't fly over turkey which is fascinating that same week our sports minister was not with job you for judo competitions won by israelis where they play the national anthem of israel the same week the foreign minister of rain tweeted praise for who he called mr netanyahu and the same week israel facilitated money from qatar coming to the palestinians in gaza to ease the humanitarian situation there against the wishes of the palestinian authority were trying to stop the palestinian people from being helped and so this
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is all part of the trump plan hashem and he wants to move the trump plan forward and dalia is exactly right that this plan is good for netanyahu it's bad for the palestinians and trump doesn't care if it's bad for the palestinians this plan is going to be out there it doesn't matter that the policies are you don't accept it once it's out there it's out there and it's the plan forever not the clinton plan and you know you know i think that particular question back again to jani you know the problem with the with the with the final peace plan for for the middle east the problem that is that basically many people are taken into account the leaks about the components of that plan but whether they seem sometimes to disregard the broader action we've seen out of leaders saying something personally or privately but then when it came to the public they've been saying something different reference. some number of times is yesterday saying that the policy issue is one of the key components of soggy foreign policy basically who was hinting they would
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reject and i think the woods for the upset the policy and so unless you call you can gauge a gentle reaction from the out of world how would you sell something as being as successful. i think the soul plan is a nonstarter as far as the palestinians are concerned and i don't think that the arab countries the moderate arab or her countries will come out and support it without getting a green light from the palestinians which when they will never get and i don't disagree with the deal about the. attitude toward cigars and you know this is an election year and he will do everything to it we deal if sions if in if you do that it means that he would have to go out it make a small or b. go in militarily in gaza if you will do it i don't think i think that we see the last polls of public opinion polls most of the people in these are. things that
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you know or did not function well in the slyest last places with gaza and that picking the right we saw if this is the will of the public in a ten year old photo we did all that we do election in the i think that we will look. into consideration do relationship with our countries what's important for him you still win the election in this requires again tell your permission in gaza you will it will do it dalia don't you see the man as more constrained than i when it comes to what i want to figure it just go ahead dalia yeah i don't disagree at all than the tanya who basically wants to win elections more than anything else i will make two points i think that in the polls that came out showing high discontent with both the defense minister's hand handling of the of the gaza crisis and of the prime minister's handling of it i would as a pollster would take those with a grain of salt because people are very discontent they wanted a more hardline response but that was in the heat of the moment and i'm not sure
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how much stomach the israeli public really has for another long devastating war that might result in israeli soldier casualties some civilian casualties terrible press and i'm not sure if it's on yahoo really wants that either so i sort of agree with phil that he might not go for escalation but i will say. that the one thing he will not do which because it won't earn him any electoral points is look at any other more long term bigger picture resolution for the question of the palestinian issue looking at the trump plan is not a long term resolution it's probably political theater and in terms of gaza he's much more likely to go for either a short term or a long term cease fire doing some sort of indirect negotiations as we've seen and all with the purpose of essentially treating gaza as an entirely separate entity fragmenting the palestinian issue into many key component parts and trying not to look at it and also trying to convey to the israeli public that we don't have to look at it as a larger question of the fate of the palestinians which israel still you know is largely responsible for it so he's really taking the idea of long term broad
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political resolution off the table. upon what i was basically going to ask you both of the full house to move on to gil you seem to be pretty much confident he's go into the soup a robust policy when it comes to how about i'm not a military analyst but then when you look at the botched. covert operation in gaza it was really an ultimate humiliation elect to the defense minister to resign it almost cost netanyahu his political legacy though to think that he would have to think one hundred times before launching a military strike against hamas. yes i don't expect it to you know to launch any serious military strike against hamas it's real those intelligence operations happen all the time that was a routine kind of operation and the response on the side was very harsh four hundred sixty rockets fired and twenty four hours they did that because of the money fifteen million dollars arriving facilitated by israel from us wanted
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to make sure to not be seen as lackeys collaborators with israel so as a one time thing that they did what they ought to do in order to flex their muscles now that money will be arriving regularly every month the humanitarian situation gaza will be eased a situation of calm has been created it can facilitate a peace process with mr guinea with its right to know out of the coalition we're left with the likud the jewish home kalina shots on the unit to toll road judaism let's talk about the future. option one those snap elections do you think the white wing would still be able to maintain a cause in monopoly of the political life in israel. yes i think once the there are elections that the game will start again and if the if that and you know we were weaned i think that lieberman will try to be in the coalition and
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depends how many many votes he will get but. we're starting the game all over again and what in lieberman will do now is do its best to open the daniels's government and have early elections because he wants to wants to to gain and come back to the game so he will do everything in will cooperate with any opposition in order to have elections dalia in one of the articles of the second intifada created a seismic shift in israeli politics where the white wing standing at something like forty five to forty six percent and that the centrist we're talking about those who could be giving toward the right or to the left representing something like twenty five percent on the left somehow standing at fifteen percent while looking at the math it doesn't seem likely that the left will ever be able to raise a wrecked in a time soon in israel. yeah i mean your original question about does the right continue to hold a monopoly on israeli electoral politics the answer is yes because as you point out
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and as i've seen in my surveys over the years the left currently the right currently stands at just below fifty percent of the total public among the jewish public it's over fifty percent slightly and the left stands as you correctly pointed out fifteen percent for the jewish public though if you look at the entire public the left reaches about one fifth let's say twenty percent in other words the left is not about to really achieve an electoral victory anytime soon the best a left winger might hope for is that the center and the left combined get enough votes to value no balance out or even overcome the bloc of the right and you know they do have common enough interests that if they get just a few percentage points back from the right ok the parity between the center left bloc with the right is pretty close but it's a long shot and the truth is i seem a much higher chance that the center will grow but those center parties are mostly center leaning right. party and possibly orly levies party together will certainly go into
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a right wing coalition and of course as forget your lapita in the initiative which is viewed in israel as a center left party he's gone into the coalition before the tanya who probably has no problem doing so again so it's hard to imagine a scenario where you elect is even a participant in a governing coalition in the future it shortens the times indeed it would be really interesting to see how political life in israel would move forward in the coming weeks shandling been yani been on him think of him us india and the really appreciate your insights today. thank you joe for watching you can see the program again at a time by visiting our website. dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter there is a j inside story for me husham out on the whole to here i phone up.
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al-jazeera select. al-jazeera. swear every. hello i'm dennis in doha and these are the top stories here it out there u.s. politicians say donald trump is putting saudi arabia ahead of american values on tuesday president trump released a statement saying he will stand by the kingdom of not take punitive action against it for the murder of john this jamal khashoggi his own intelligence agency concluded crown paints mohammed bin salma ordered the killing as you have a.

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