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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 362  Al Jazeera  December 29, 2018 10:32am-11:01am +03

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nationalist party says thousands of its activists have been detained since november the ruling awami league party maintains the vote will be free and fair unrest over the exclusion of three areas from sunday's election persists in eastern parts of the democratic republic of congo two people were killed during a workers' strike in the city of beni on friday and police fired tear gas to disperse opposition supporters in goa one presidential candidate has filed a case at the supreme court seeking to reverse the election commission's decision to delay voting on those areas till march. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu is in brazil and is promising stronger bilateral ties he's been meeting the far right president elect jeb olsen are in rio de janeiro it is the first visit by an israeli permit to the country there was no mention of brazil's anticipated move of its embassy to in israel to jerusalem you have to say well the headline turnout is there inside story it's coming right up front. on counting the cost the
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economic factors to watch it be ringing in the new year why call them is some predicting a rocky ride for the global economy and from china to the middle east find out why and where financial storms could be proved. counting the cost on the. russia's new hypersonic missile landed near putin watches the test firing of the kremlin's latest weapon flying at twenty seven times faster than the speed of sound means it could reach the united states or anywhere else within minutes how big a threat is it this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program i'm glad i'm here putin is describing it as an
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excellent new year's gift to the nation russia's president is hailing the successful testing of a new missile as guaranteeing security for decades to come supersonic missile systems are slower than hypersonic flying at many times the speed of sound they're designed to evade missile shield systems to strike anywhere in the world putin says nothing can shoot it down. or i will go to the new avenue guard system is an invincible against any existing in future enemy missile defenses it's a great success a great victory it will be deployed next year and we'll be joined by a regiment which will be put on judy we will move forward in accordance with our plans promising military arm systems to equip the early and navy so what do we know about the album guard missile the kremlin says it flies at thirty thousand kilometers an hour that hypersonic speed is designed to make it extremely difficult to intercept or predict its flight path current missile defense systems can't stop
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hypersonic attacks while russia says it's the first country to go hypersonic u.s. and chinese experts are racing to perfect their technology. the development of hypersonic weapons is increasing concerns about a new arms race and there's a threat to a cold war treaty which limits existing weapons donald trump accuses russia of repeatedly violating the i.n.f. treaty and is threatening to pull out putin has warned that happens russia will develop new missile systems russia has violated the agreement they've been violating it for many years that i don't know why president obama didn't negotiate or pull out. we're not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons and we're not allowed to we're the ones that have stayed in the agreement and we bonded to agreement but russia is not unfortunately on to the agreement so we're going to terminate it we're going to pull out. all right let's bring in our guests
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in vienna thought of is former head of the verification and security policy coordination office at the international atomic energy agency in moscow pavol felgenhauer is defense analyst and columnist with the newspaper. and in washington d.c. richard waits is director of center for political military analysis at the hudson institute welcome to the program photic let me start with you there has been no independent confirmation of this test right the avodart missile system is it really close to being operational well there is some doubt in western circles that i believe the united states if jill doubtful about its initial operational capability which was announced to be twenty nineteen people also doubt whether the missile or the device can reach twenty in terms of speed but nonetheless says you mentioned in your introduction the united states china and russia as well as india are all
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working towards developing these advanced hypersonic glide vehicles richard just how much of a threat do hypersonic weapon systems represent. i wouldn't break that question down into the level of strategic. operations that is the kind of nuclear strikes that the us russia and china might launch against each other and tactical operational battlefield level issues so at the strategic level they have certain advantages as discussed in the introduction to the program they can because of their unpredictable flight path they can invade certain kinds of defenses that were designed for to intercept a listing missiles that follow a list or trajectory however they don't fundamentally change the fact that that russia china in the end the us have enough nuclear off and some strategic forces to overcome any possible defense that we could be built the next few decades and
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therefore are going to remain neutrally volatile and therefore will have neutral to turn so it doesn't change that it allows adds a little complexity but the more interesting question is how they might impact at the tattoo operational level and there are the thinking is they could have as much impact as stealth did for so if russia is able to sink a u.s. aircraft carrier the hypersonic torpedo at it in an industry or and that would reach the target in a minute from a submarine to the u.s. when bella down a fireworks location is an advance that could have a major change in how we might see battles occur off syria for example a possible does this announcement by president hu mean to a large extent we have actually seen the onset of a new arms race. well it seems that yes russia and america are aging
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and a new arms race that was obvious for some time russia has been modernizing very much its nuclear capabilities and now i asked this year almost a year ago but this year the united states introduced the new nuclear posture review which also means that there be developing new weapons a development that didn't happen under barack obama who didn't want to develop your weapons who want to be kind of. where to the core but this kind of specific a mess sile well it's not true in misao i mean the missile that was reported we fired is an old soviet s.s. nineteen developed and built in the eighty's and this is a new warhead actually which be attached to basically any bow a stick miss or space launcher and then when it reenters the atmosphere it for eye
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on some kind of trajectory that's on predictable and then. nonetheless reach its star get afterwards but basically bogus think. warheads and especially intercontinental ballistic warheads always travel that hyper speed that's nothing new but before they made that kind of beeline to the target then the more accurate the better this is a maneuverable gliding war which is technically a very big achievement though it doesn't alter the basic nuclear balance of the tyrants that's true richard i saw you nodding your head to some of what pavol was saying did you want to add something. no i just to make clear it's the hypersonic technologies or look here isn't necessarily furring to delivery vehicle that is a missile it's more than a re-entry system so if it's hard gliding warhead gliding vehicle or hypersonic
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gliding vehicle it's not in a typical re entry vehicle which is normally goes in ballistic trajectory and that means it's going to can realign because it's flying very low and at that level the atmosphere at the low level atmosphere it's able to maneuver using the air and so on that said if you know what the target is it is possible to intercept it so if you know that you're there and trying to hit the pentagon then theory you don't even if you don't know how it's going to get there you know where it's going to end up and so that does allow in theory the possibility of defense apart from the you know whether or not this is actually close to being operational the fact of the matter is this announcement coming when it does really really underscores doesn't it you know how much nuclear saber rattling has become you know really quite central to to president putin when it comes to trying to showcase russia as
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a superpower at home and abroad correct. yes i think that's correct that's also in my view reflects some frustration on the part of president putin who has proposed to the united states to discuss in the format of the standing verification commission under the i.n.f. treaty issues of mutual noncompliance he's also offered to the u.s. to extend the strategic arms control treaty by another five years to two thousand and twenty six but from the u.s. in his view he has not received a satisfactory answer and given that to prepare the opposition to president trump by the mainstream media by the democrats president putin sees that in the trumpet ministration he is not going to get a negotiating partner on arms control and this is his way of pushing back but i would also argue that there is an asymmetry the u.s.
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was looking at hypersonic vehicles through its conventional precision got. attack strategy to be able to deliver a warhead at any place on the planet within one hour of using a conventional warhead to attack targets like the high deductible some of bin laden before he was killed or isis or a guy that targets the u.s. and china in response are targeting apparently u.s. strategic forces to defeat the u.s. creator missile defense system and also the ground based missile defense system that the u.s. is putting in place so i'm also concerned about this is symmetry and possibly mixing conventional warheads the nuclear warheads on the delivery system of these advanced hypersonic vehicles probably let's talk for a minute about the u.s. because u.s. officials have in recent months warned that their efforts at the development of hypersonic weapon systems that they lag behind those of other countries such as
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russia do you believe that. well again that's watch how you define hypersonic weapon or vehicle i mean if it's a warhead that i mean a modified seriously modified reentry vehicle attached but we stick misao medium range or an intercontinental that's one thing and that's. rather easier to make though of course there are very serious problems there too for the of a chronic components not to burn out because of their high temperature that they've achieved while going through the dense atmosphere but if you're talking about kind of plane or some kind of flying vehicle that will have an engine and why at first sonic speed in the upper atmosphere that's a much more difficult achievement and that's what there are am united states is basically working on because you know the shuttle was also returning from space it
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flew a hyper speed than it was maneuvered to hand and the united states has an unmanned shuttles the x. thirty seven that go into space and go back o. some maneuver type or speed and then land where they intended to so that's achievable what's really the problem is making and then ssion that work at hyper speed and the plane has some kind of flying object that could go on its own engine not just simply using the energy of it going down to earth from space and that's the thing that's what we were united states is working on russia is working on that too and china that that that goal has not been real way yet the achieved by anyone richard if we could just take a step back for a second just how bad is the relationship right now between the u.s. and russia. oh it's terrible i mean i mean i'm disappointed.
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you know i was a child the cold war i studied the soviet union in order to try and destroy it but then the cold war ended and we were looking to into partnership with russia but it's been one disappointment after another so we had a slight reconciliation the cold war that collapsed then after nine eleven the two thousand and one terrorist attacks there was a brief reconciliation but that slowly fade over time. president obama came in made a sincere effort to reset relations with russia but that failed and now in the present trumpet that was one thing he made was one of his core objectors was improve relations with russia and he's failed so i don't know what's going to make the relationship better or it's just awful and so as both speakers of a point now this leads to a very unfortunate situation regarding arms control and mung other relations so as as was discussed we now have one treaty that's about to collapse the i.n.f. treaty which was signed here in the cold war and limits the number right range of
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systems within the five thousand five hundred kilometer to five hundred kilometer and we've got a second one whose fate is on third uncertain the more important new start treaty which is going to expire in two thousand and twenty one but can be either extended by both presidents without needing legislative approval for five years as are allowed by the protocol perhaps change and expanded so you can maybe try and deal with these hypersonic systems or they could just collapse and have no arms control and that's the relationship we u.s. has now with china and regional formal limits on their strategic systems richard i'm so sorry to reproduce to be clear also as far as the i.n.f. treaty i mean hypersonic missiles hypersonic systems are not covered at all in that i n f treat correct. correct so one as covered by the treaties and after the new start are the missiles and the nuclear warheads and so if russia wants to
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have. a thousand dollars which is under the treaty for the new start treaty russia is free and i guess it's about is about a hundred missiles strategic missiles land base and if you want to put a normal reentry vehicle as or you want to put hypersonic reentry vehicle i mean that's really up to the national decision making as long as you comply with the other exchanges and fair and verification and so on so they do not need to violate a treaty but if you want to break out of the treaty they would be one means by which you do so but it's really the treaty of trying to limit the number of launchers and nuclear warheads not so much how you get you have them reach the target thought if china has also said that it has successfully tested hypersonic aircraft do we know where things stand in china with regard to any kind of development of hypersonic missile systems weaponry of any kind. wes
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china has conducted nearly ten tests of its version of a hypersonic glide vehicle apparently they have received a velocity of about mach ten as opposed to mach twenty by the u.s. and the russian federation but some believe that china may be the first to actually deploy regardless of president putin's announcement yesterday i'm also concerned about possible new entrants pakistan in response to india japan and south korea apparently are also considering the possibility of developing this in the u.s. there is a lot of concern about technology fast so to speak by china but i'm also concerned about technology theft by india because a lot of ip specialists from india are working in the u.s. specially on defense contracts this is something that is under reported at the moment the indians apparently are developing something called the sharia which is
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supposed to be another hypersonic glide vehicle variant and also the bra mouse to abramoff is a supersonic cruise missile jointly being developed by in the air and russia so we may also be on the verge of a new multilateral or multi-party arms race in these hypersonic vehicles with regard to arms control this is the. hypersonics fall in the gaps they are not missile but they are launched by a ballistic missile whether a hypersonic light vehicle can be characterized as a warhead is still open to question so this is yet another important issue to be concerned about whether this falls through the gap and is not captured by the arms control discourse and now for the first time in the sixty year history of arms control between washington and moscow there is no dialogue even during the with years of the cold war the us and russia were negotiating on strategic arms control
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and so we are now on the verge of entering into a very dangerous phase both with regard to conventional weapons proliferation but also unrestrained strategic arms race problem if i could ask you to expand on a point that i thought it was making there i mean there are concerns about these weapons systems and delivery systems becoming operational but then there are also concerns about proliferation in your mind from your vantage point what is more worrying. both are worrying but you also should take it all with the pinch of salt because i mean there's a lot of hype international have about hypersonic and when you say hopper sonic everyone believes that that something real bad terrible but actually an operational sense for this you know warheads are also very good and actually cheaper more
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reliable and more accurate than hypersonic things so russia yes there was an announced there will be deployment in nineteen but they'll deploy only too apparent with such missiles with a modified reentry vehicle a guide there because the problem is it doesn't add anything it actually even detracts because. not s.s. nineteen say you can put up to six regular warheads but apparently only one good idea or which will carry must like with this a new career with a warhead or the same you queer device so that means hypersonic doesn't always mean that it's better at least for the time being but the u.s. the race is expanding arms control as we know knew it before its co-op sing because the arms treaty control treaties that are now exist to in existence were signed as the cold war was ending or end and they reflected the reality that's no
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war there because right now there's a kind of new cold war between russia and the west and that means those treaties already are not relevant and no new treaty is or not apparently appearing that there are indeed no negotiations happening between moscow and washington a venue real substance on arms control and that is very very worrying richard could you invision some type of trilateral treaty with regard to hypersonic weapons being signed are being developed at any point soon between the us russia and china in the environment in which we're living now. i think it's possible because you do have examples of cooperation among these three countries even despite despite the strong tensions between them so they have cooperated to some
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extent to keep iran from from developing nuclear weapons or a long range i c b m's they've also cooperated in the crisis of north korea and probably most relevant is they three cooperated on to keep the nuclear and treaty from being adopted so they can cooperate when it's in their interest and so they may i think it's still a stretch to think that they would limit their own hypersonic systems but i could see them working as you asked pavol to try and cooperate fent other countries from getting this technology so you know the kind of situation you want to avoid is less is less a concern about how these systems might affect the balance between these three countries given their robust strategic arsenals but say thinking what would happen if a man had a hypersonic delivery system that it could destroy israel in
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a couple minutes i mean that just creates a strong incentive on the part of the israelis to strike first and the same is true as was mentioned with respect to india and pakistan they're so close together that if you can get a warhead they can just launch and hit the target in a couple seconds that's just a terrible strategic environment there's a strong incentive to strike first and so on and so that's why they would have both a general interest in women's liberation and technologies and specific concern about regional conflicts going out of control so i think it is possible for such cooperation to occur terrorism trump actually called for that the g. twenty meeting in argentina he said you know we need to launch some more cooperation with russia on china on arms control target we only have about two minutes left just let me ask you this you know obviously we don't yet know how much all of this is hype but in this environment with things seem to be escalated how destabilizing does all this have the potential to be. well i think in the short term it has the potential to be gravely stabilizing if we have an incident in the
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south china sea between the chinese navy and the u.s. navy we don't know whether that will escalate out of hand if there's an incident in the ukraine or in syria where you have american and. russian forces still present. miscalculation that's the big fear at the moment is an accidental clash that nobody wants but it escalates out of control hypersonics will not play a role in that my other point is that if the start to greenland collapses its verification system also collapses and despite the bad relationship between washington then the united states i mean russia the start to greenland still is active in terms of verification both sides of verifying each other and neither side is accused of the side of violating the start agreement all right we have run out of time so we're going to have to leave it there thanks to all our guests thought of trove pavol felgenhauer and richard white's and thank you too for watching you
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can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a.j. inside story for me mama june and the whole team here by phone now. a controversial politician elected to the highest office in latin america's biggest country. brazil is about to inaugurate its new president. joins us live from the capital brasilia on inauguration day. and initial response had been inadequate but now it was time for
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a bible. that muslims now move from merely reacting to taking action putting the western crusaders on the defensive with hindsight this is seen as a breakthrough as a revival of the jihad in the muslim near east the crusades an arab perspective episode to revive this time on a. resort is one of nigeria's top tourist destinations but in the shadow of the mountain some nigerians continue an ancient tradition with child protection workers say condemns young girls to a life of slavery and sexual exploitation five year old miracle was married for money just a few weeks ago with some missionaries who says she's proved many marriages happen . richard is a missionary goals the money to buy outrightly a. big truck a girl. they want if it takes fourteen years. to get
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money way. too often on the streets of a million are victims but a new force is that place. female police officers are combat sexual assault. but changing society is a challenge and so is life behind the badge for india's. every week a new cycle brings a series of breaking stories. as we turn the cameras on the media and focus on how they report on the stories that matter the most on al-jazeera al-jazeera is there with us during breaks but look schools today to see what happens next situation. fired by the barriers where mobile barricaded all
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seven streets that lead to here the middle east now has been all about change people have gone to fear barrier the mission of the national army is to search the entire complex and al-jazeera stories about telling it from the people's perspective what they think is happening in their culture. in egypt says it's killed forty people in raids after a deadly attack on a tourist bus. coming up the program the syrian bridge in the crosshairs of competing forces all to us announced it's pulling out. helping her brother. the.

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