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tv   Hard Earned 2015 Ep 4  Al Jazeera  February 2, 2019 3:00pm-4:01pm +03

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that gives foreign investors pause. the murder of one journalist has washed away the veneer of change and quashed investor confidence. to see people to be allowed to speak. about. the interest of a stakeholder never get priority over the kingdom the privatization process would mean saudi oil reserves will be up for scrutiny those finances will be in the public eye. you go from running a business where you have endless resources and no oversight to one day having to register your company with the exchange and have to disclose every single number. the companies have over the last five to ten years every piece of cap ex every decision that's been made every partnership every single thing you've done is now in the public purview why move. on.
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i think begin by. putting if you're a private company that's run so well it's painful because you have answer a lot of questions but not nearly as painful as after you take people's money. those saudi economists who dared to raise concerns about the prince's ambitious twenty thirty plans are in jail. you know that's not. enough that you had. a day before the murder prominent economist is samo samo was indicted on terrorism related charges his crime was providing analysis some of which explained that a high valuation of aramco could mean that the kingdom will not get any oil revenue for decades because all of it will go into
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a ramp controlled by shareholders. in the beginning stages you have to take anyone's money because it is just disclosing to the exchanges here's how we run our business here's why you should be comfortable listing us you then go out to raise capital. and once you're taking someone else's money they own those shares and you're a company for the people by the people you know not a company for the management management or the or the king. and the transitions massive. that changeover from state control to a public listing which began in two thousand and seventeen is now shelved for years to come kia ram co executives have also left or been moved. so that process for a company like this probably a year and a half so like a tech start up for you have a slide presentation and some hope you have
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a business that changes global markets for decades and decades it's a process that will be expansive. it will be intrusive. and it will be transformative. saudi aramco places the kingdom's reserves at two hundred sixty one billion barrels of oil but that magic number with no real third party audit has remained more or less constant for nearly thirty years since the one nine hundred eighty s. there have been rising production changes in technology and no announcements of major oil discoveries in the kingdom but other oil giants such as shell and exxon have revised down their reserves during this period. if on average saudi production was at nine million barrels a day in the last thirty years aramco has pumped out nearly one hundred billion barrels without a dent in its two hundred sixty one billion reserves and the jury's out on how much
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they actually have and what it's worth. looking at their reserves figure is you know makes if you look too closely at it you start to wonder how it can stay roughly constant from year to year when they're they're producing an export and so much oil every year disclosure of the reserves it's a top secret in saudi arabia and i think that's a significant concern on the part of a ram co-executors they treat their reserves with kid gloves their duty is to get the most out of these reserves in the best way possible and the reserve confidence will only be consistent with third parties verifying the information that's got to be done through regulatory fashion that everyone's comfortable it can't just be something a company says and and hopes is the case you've got to verify. whatever other qualities god may have given the saudis he gave them a lot of wealth in the ground and that's not going to go away. so you want my
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quibble over the over the reserves. you know the saudis have the ability to fracking really haven't even started basically. but would the possibility of higher reserves be enough for investors to finance or impose i.p.o. probably the biggest downside is the transparency that would have resulted around saudi reserves saudi oil reserves that doesn't change very much from year to year and really hasn't changed much over the past couple of decades doesn't give much insight beyond the single number you know around two hundred sixty billion barrels if saudi aramco would have listed shares in the new york stock exchange or the london stock exchange the regulators were forced saudi arabia to come clean on all of its reserves you know how much of that is proven probable or otherwise i think
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that's a tough sell within the kingdom within saudi aramco and within the ministry and all the way up to the head of state i don't think so do you arabia is. not trustworthy when it comes to their reserves i think their reserves are there but the capacity is another question the saudi aramco has never produced twelve and a half million barrels a day and has never come within about a million barrels a day of that says that it can reach that level of capacity after a period of about six months of additional investment right so we can't just twist a few valves and crank up an extra two million barrels a day i can remember on one occasion. sitting in the office of of them. minister petroleum who did not know that i understood arabic. when one of his aides came rushing in. and said we've got we've proved the reserves in this particular
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new field they've found and he said well how much is it and they said three billion barrels and he said oh it's too small cap it well that's twice the alaska reserve. if you had full access to to ramp those reserves figures and you know other inside details about its revenue streams and whatnot you know anybody with a smartphone could could second guessed saudi minister you know right now when the when the oil minister goes to vienna to speak in public at an opec meeting and you can see him surrounded by hoards of reporters each shoving their voice recorder in his face to catch a cold snippet of what he says about you know saudi plans saudi reserves saudi oil production. you know sod it saudi market strategy the world would be is quite is dependent on the oil minister for information you know sort of on the walk the.
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you know the secrets of what america was going to do also you know you put those those that information out there it's out there for everyone. we should just be dynamic in the response to the reserves matter because the reserves and output give saudi arabia the regional and international clout as the largest producer in the oil producing club of nations known as opec vacation travel lodging billions and billions and billions of dollars of industry get moved by opec. and opec being. a saudi driven organization they have to be meticulous the company is so good at what it does that that also brings its leaders a certain amount of political clout when it comes to opec and when it comes to other dealings with other countries a practice not a capo and. really wants to start belies the oil price at the some
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extent in the do you need therefore baghdad i think is still embodied then to how then we can bring the best of the prize but it's the. not the prize that benefits are going to produce or at the prize that also benefit the producer and consumer. studio for good within the comic organization with every system fundamentals focus on addressing the global markets needs to put a reliable supply petroleum saudi arabia is the keystone in opec it is the big dog it's the ringleader if you will within opec opec members maintain a little bit here and there no one has more than one million barrels per day of spare oil production capacity that that i know but maintains that that kind of level of spare capacity. as you know as as a policy that saudi arabia saudi aramco typically maintain you know
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a million two million barrels two million barrels a day of oil production capacity that they don't use ok so no profit oriented firm would ever do this you wouldn't invest all the billions in developing oil fields and pipelines and storage facilities and production infrastructure and then just leave it dormant saudi aramco has done it at the behest of the saudi state. and you know it's the key aspect in the saudi u.s. partnership the ramp those ability to bring more oil production online and its willingness to cut back at times and markets are oversupplied let's go to the crux of the the u.s. and saudi strategic partnership. saudi arabia if we broke with them i think your oil prices would go through the roof i've kept them down they've helped me keep them down right now we have low oil prices are relatively i'd like to see it go
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down even lower. billions of dollars are treated at the world's largest stock exchange it's business as usual on wall street but like other exchanges around one . world also tried to sway saudi aramco to live in new york even the u.s. president weighed in on his preferred medium of communication but the strict requirements remained a deterrent for the i.p.o. which was being called the world's largest offering it would be a double whammy for mohamed been sold to not get the two trillion dollars valuation and having to compromise on not listing on the world's largest stock market. where the world's largest oil producer and you don't list in the world's largest stock exchange that's definitely something i definitely lesser access to capital new york is terribly complicated by virtue of when i'm eleven hangover so i thought from the beginning it was quite you know it was
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a nice thing to dangle before the americans but it was probably not going to come to us you know there aren't that many exchanges that can do this london and new york were the two main ones that that that could really handle something like this both of which have pretty stringent transparency requirements new york's more south . london was signaling that it was willing to roll back. some of its transparency requirements and make a special deal for aramco the princes i.p.o. hit the brakes from a lofty two trillion dollar valuation to uncertainty about the size of saudi reserves for litigation risks to stringent requirements from stock exchanges but the reality was different from the political statements. i think the two trillion dollar number zero is significant for saudis but not significant for the rest of them are talking about a business that dwarfs almost every business in the us and p.
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five hundred i would say two trillion dollars is a high valuation it's not unachievable when you look at what the size of it is whether it's a trillion trillion after two trillion. the scales all relative it's massive and so if you have a business asserting two hundred three hundred four hundred billion dollars a year there's a multiple put on it. and the market's going to say well even though you're a trillion dollar business give or take whether you're one trillion or three trillion is going to be dependent on the earnings and your decline curves and your gross tragedy what type of growth percentage going to put on your business it's a huge number there's no question about it whether you look at the high level we look at the low level it's huge it's a huge i.p.l. huge company and so i guess what you're asking me is how do they expect to sell it i think there's enough money out there that can cover it but if on the
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other hand the global economy should begin to tick down would then it's going to be a hard sell they would have to lower the price putting a line in the sand is is strong and smart from your own perspective but the market's going to determine what they feel comfortable about buying. your stocking that's worth what someone tells you it's worth but we hope it's so when my heart when someone announced the remco i.p.o. and he basically said we're looking for a valuation of two trillion dollars that's the largest valuation of all time for any company and that's of those for the whole company they were never talking about selling any more than five percent so it seems like they're looking to raise one hundred billion dollars which is a large amount but not that much so quick but the question is really is a ram co valued at two trillion dollars what are their oil reserves which is really
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tends to be the bulk of what makes up an oil company valuation now we're also has a lot of other assets around the world not oil not upstream oil assets but they own shares in refineries in china in south korea they own oil storage facilities in japan that they own the largest oil refinery in the united states and they also have a lot of research and development things going on they've also got petro chemical and oil refineries in saudi arabia so the company is worth more than what they dig out of the ground and sell but does that get us to two trillion dollars the answer also depends on what the price of oil is at the time of the i.p.o. and when they announced the i.p.o. we were in the midst of a very period of very low well prices so you can see i would be very hard to reach a two trillion dollars valuation in say two thousand and seventeen when the price
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of oil was you know fifty or fifty five dollars a barrel. it's an indirect devaluation of the saudi economy which is reliant on a whim code. so it's not just a company with a proposed two trillion dollar price tag. there's a major problem with valuing the company. what is it that's being offered some slice of the overall company i guess but no direct ownership of any part of it how much are the reserves after all are they understated or overstated what level of efficiency does saudi aramco have in comparison with other oil companies. where is the future market. mohamed been so months vision was to take the money from the i.p.o. to revamp the saudi public investment fund which would play a leading role in developing non oil industries but that fund has already started
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borrowing money instead of stacking up oil revenues the tens of billions expected from a ram code never arrived and global banks provided their first ever loan of eleven billion dollars the i.p.o. it seems to be from what people say was designed to generate cash for the public investment fund of saudi arabia which is designed to make investments for the future not to use for the saudi budget not to use for those kind of projects but really a sovereign wealth fund to rely on you know when oil is no longer foreign commodity here you have a company which has been deliberately nontransparent is now listed on any market that has no shareholders other than the kingdom itself to which to report in saudi arabia is not a notably free press environment and it is not a democracy and accountability is uncertain.
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every weekly news cycle brings a series of breaking stories and of course there's drama trying to tell through the eyes of the world's channelise that's right out of a hamas script that calls for the annihilation of israel that is not what that phrase joined the listening post as we turned the cameras on the media focus on how they were caught on a story that matter the most embarrassing a free palestine listening post on al-jazeera. the top stories on al-jazeera but as well as opposition leader told al-jazeera he's willing to do everything possible to put the country on the path to democracy and stability is in
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a political standoff with president nicolas maduro he rejected an offer of mediation from mexico and. part of a lovely ok you're there not to conflict incites but all we have he said entire country to the wants change and a very tiny group that sustains itself with weapons stolen from the republic and with constant threats against the same army that sustains that war and a citizenship that east massacre i understand the very good intentions of mexico and your ally and i understand the ultimatum the european union has given maduro where the opposition has been willing to negotiate we tried everything we have boded we have abstained we gunna hunger strikes we have a protest and they have killed. the taliban says u.s. president donald trump appears to be serious about putting his troops out of afghanistan it says a foreign withdrawal is the first goal towards resolving the seventeen yet conflict group also says it wants to establish an islamic system under any peace deal. the
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united states is withdrawing from one of its main nuclear weapons agreements with russia washington says the one nine hundred eighty seven intermediate range nuclear forces treaty has been consistently violators. of all i recall as president laurent gbagbo has been released by the international criminal court two weeks after being acquitted of crimes against humanity had been accused of inciting a wave of violence following disputed elections twenty ten. video has emerged showing the moment a dam collapse at a mine in brazil last week the disaster unleashed a wave of sludge a mud in the south east in the state of mina. hundred fifteen people are confirmed dead nor is two hundred fifty a still missing. cory booker a viewer of new jersey has begun the latest democrat and the race for the party's twenty twenty presidential nomination voice nine year old is the second african-americans join the race off to camilla harris has been
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a vocal critic of president. stuns the footballing world where winning the world cup for the first time may be japan three one in the final in. the kingdom is home to the most important religious sites for muslims but saudi arabia is a real source of power is its oil wealth and the remco converts that black gold into dollars and real. many academics experts and oil economist are the refused all refrain from speaking to us as soon as they heard it's about the kingdom's most economic firepower. the saudis can use oil as a weapon. opec did it in one nine hundred seventy three. they put an embargo and what happened to the price of oil. it shot up over one hundred dollars
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a few years ago we saw oil prices tumble. create it that it was the saudis. they flooded the market. why they wanted to put shallow oil out of business well it backfired. the partnership between the u.s. and saudi arabia rests on linked interests many of which have either disappeared or are now problematic they basic bargain that of. preferred access to energy in return for security protection but the united states is now the string producer internationally for oil given fracking and we are an energy exporter not dependent on the gulf the support that the saudis provided by making american foreign policy how loud. acceptable to most things.
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now the muslim world is so divided and the united states is so islamophobia that bargain is gone saudi arabia also controls of vast media empire for decades it's been tens of millions of dollars to lobby cultural institutions think tanks universities even government all to improve the kingdom's image that's jumped from ten million dollars spent in two thousand and sixteen to more than twenty seven million dollars today used to fuel a sophisticated saudi influence machine that money shapes policy and perceptions and it also covers up criticism of the kingdom. much of this was revealed in twenty fifteen when wiki leaks published thousands of cable exchanges between saudi diplomats posted abroad and the foreign ministry. houston texas is an oil town. it's
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a testament to saudi soft power and how big saudi money is securely invested in the us regardless of what saudi arabia is accused of even a local marathon here is sponsored by a ram code but whether it's nine eleven or the murder of the saudi journalist jamal khashoggi it all continues to cast a shadow over the kingdom's image abroad. in terms of jasta which is the law that was passed basically saying that citizens can sue the saudi government for the role and nine eleven. that has been put forward as a reason not to list on the new york stock exchange. i'm not a lawyer but it would not be a real concern at all evidence that at least that's available if the u.s. government has presented an declassified is not significant enough to probably convict her of to get
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a. ruling you know to be able to sue the saudi so there's that but say it was. then the question is ok so what kind of assets can you go after and if you're saying that aramco is an asset of the saudi government and therefore should pay well there's already a lot of aramco investment in the united states that they can go after they can go after motive of the largest refinery they have research centers all over there is around headquarters services company in in america i think that that's a convenient excuse to give but if they wanted to list on the new york stock exchange it's not really a significant barrier. motif as the largest refinery in the united states which goes through a whopping six hundred thousand barrels a day it's more than two thousand employees work near the gulf of mexico but this behemoth facility isn't u.s. it's a subsidiary of the centerpiece of saudi crown prince mohammed bin vision twenty
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thirty he wants to expand the petro chemicals business instead of the kingdom's heavy reliance on oil sales. so influential in port arthur goodwill tiva security sent a policeman to stop us from filming they even called the police to hold us until they could question why journalists were filming their facilities. despite tight control over media and any opinion which doesn't fall in line with that of the kingdom. efforts to privatized had been a hard sell at home. with very little accountability of the ruling family radical changes are viewed with suspicion by many ordinary saudis. one of the major objections by people in the kingdom was their fear that the money would go into the pockets of the royal family rather than be used in a transparent way to provide government services to the people in other words waste
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fraud and mismanagement are a concern on the part of the public concerned by foreigners i think the conference is trying to create an environment conducive to foreign investment but events things keep happening questions keep getting raised that make that difficult. geo political power is to is the exclusive access to information about saudi reserves they hold that information very close and they let it out and in dribs and drabs it's almost like the strategic ambiguity around the israeli nuclear weapons capability they release what they choose to release when they choose to release it that's a source of power very similar with the oil reserves in saudi arabia. this is not the first time reforms have been promised in saudi arabia or the first time when those promises have been left up by western powers and lauded by the media. since
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the one nine hundred fifty s. the new york times which likes to be called the newspaper of record has given similar coverage to saudi kings and princes the media has given them titles such as trailblazers and performers similar to the current crown prince even the glitzy twenty thirty roadmap hints at promises. well the vision itself is hardly new this was largely drawn out there by consultants mckinsey in particular. and they were able to do that quickly because the ministry of planning in saudi arabia had all these ideas. there to be gathered up so the vision isn't new. the drive for change in the kingdom transformative drive was also not new in many ways i had been so many resembles his grandfather. closes of
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different methods of blood zs united kingdom with tribal marriages bewildering number of marriages and divorces that brought different groups in the society and it into his family he conducted a war in the saudi south. which is on a sea of which took land from yemen and made it definitively part of saudi arabia he suppressed religious uprisings there are many similarities one could say and it worked whether the current dr will work or not is unknown and certainly not the first time claims of reform have been made in saudi arabia for example king faisel when he became king he made a lot of very important changes and reforms in saudi arabia that before that the government had been spending very recklessly and carelessly under king his brother king so it was reported actually that he would carry around in his pocket of the
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budget and whenever he would see a minister say in the halls or something he would question that he would say how are you spending this money what are you doing with it so this is not the first time that that reforms have been tried probably every previous king in saudi arabia has announced it to some extent and there have been one of the key aspects i think that a lot of the reform plans always include are megaprojects. and in my mind those mega projects never really pan out and so those that's always something to be wary of you can hold up the ramp or i.p.o. is the key example of that but there were lots of other privatisations that would have really helped kind of. move saudi arabia's economy from very state status based shoe of much more diverse and vibrant private economy so for example they wanted to sell parts of the airlines of of different national companies and it really almost seems like the reverse is happening that the state is actually more involved in the economy as opposed to less involved and that i think is probably
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not a good sign for developing a diverse and vibrant private economy but at the same time there are ships in. social expectations that have to occur in saudi arabia and so those changes i think a setting a year of twenty thirty is probably very. ambitious i think the saudis realize that the time has come that they must change the way they run the economy where they do business otherwise what would happen in. iraq look what happened with iran look what happened with libya it's not too far fetched to think that that can happen with saudi arabia.
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susumu yemen was the gentleman no i wouldn't say yeah i mean you know that he could tell you the good work that even the you know overall is also the d.o.b. element and the leadership just not the spotlight but they would not just want to him hundred other she kind of the time of them that are now that she come to help you know how the she turned to dust or maybe you just. didn't look at the health. the organ going more in yemen is not just creating global pressure but also a strain on the saudi economy in addition tens of thousands of foreign workers have been expelled from saudi arabia the government's reduction in subsidies for fuel and utilities has become a burden it's had to borrow aggressively to plug the budget deficit. well the budgetary crisis is not new i did have a conversation with the late then crown prince abdullah later king abdullah who
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made a real effort in the late ninety's had to institute a tax system other than that. and the conversation went like this i said to him you know i think you have a problem here because for example in the united states if i take a section of desert that's a part of nevada and i either invest my own money or i borrow money from a bank and i build an industrial estate a park and a related community and i don't doubt the government for anything the government still has to come up with all sorts of services police education and waste water management road maintenance even if i build the roads initially and so forth. and the same is true in saudi arabia if except even more so because at that time at least saudi arabia was heavily subsidizing electricity and water and other things
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that people needed so i said you know the difference is that in nevada every cent will come back in the form of increased government revenue. and so that the very the debt will be replaced by a stream of revenue that makes the government whole that enables a higher level of service whereas in saudi arabia not one house comes back basically you have a sister and i said in which private prosperity impoverished is the government the opposite of normal economics. so i've said to people. i'll give you a real nigel it's a real parliament and a role in allocating tax resources but in order to do that you've got to pay taxes and he said i came very close to getting a consensus on this in the end i failed the merchants particularly in the western
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province would not agree so it's difficult to to rationalize a big investments in a country that's already a hard sell for investors anyway because of you know the visa requirements and red tape and you know lifestyle issues in saudi arabia a lot of a lot of foreigners it's not a you know considered a great destination for you know second homeowners or for. foreigners who are looking to move their families and put their kids in the local schools you know they would go to dubai abu dhabi or doha to go to the region. so it's you know sat here has never been a real easy sell for foreign investment for the size of its economy f.d.d.i. flows there aren't proportionally as big as they are for some of the more open economies around the region. perhaps the biggest challenge to the saudi economy comes from the wave of change in the way the country is being run through the
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muḥammad been so mom's pursuit of vision twenty thirty has upset the traditional order in twenty fifteen when the. king said and i ascended the throne in short order within a year old power was essentially transferred into the hands of his favorite son prominence of man this destroyed the consultative tradition within the royal family and more broadly in the kingdom here you have a young man with great ambition drive imagination. determined to change things impatient and not willing to wait for consultation. so a lot of egos have been bruised a lot of interests have been shaken many people have lodged objections to this fundamental change in the constitutional order in saudi arabia this is before you get to things like. they had
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a corruption drive which. exacted huge amounts of money from the wealthy elite in the kingdom. kings on my will be the last king of his generation it had always passed from brother to brother to brother and it's clear even though there are still some living brothers are sons of up to ozzy's it has been decided that samana will be the last of that generation. the next generation there are a lot of princes there and a lot of them had a great deal of control and in certain segments of the economy and and of saudi society and there always been kind of a balancing act that went on between these different segments of the royal family there been a lot of tensions produced basically traditionally in saudi arabia and the end goal for arab society is generally. the kang or the or the i mean you're the leader has the same responsibilities as the sheriff in
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a tribe there's really two responsibilities one is to. ensure that decision to taken by consensus after consultation he proclaims a consensus does not. make a decision then imposes a second responsibility is to ensure that the less fortunate the poorest share of the wealth so it's a the government or the this case that leader must distribute arms charity to the needy the saudi state is built on these principles the first one has been badly compromise as power has been gathered into one man's grounds or perhaps to. the proud parents and his father the members of the family the ruling family who were previously consulted i feel excluded in many cases from the decision making process they would have all be and had to agree together on things
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almost like different shareholders and it does appear that that process is changing i would be cautious of of saying well it's now different everything is different now it's a one man show that may be the image that they'd like to present to everyone but that doesn't mean that all of the other sources of power have necessarily been eliminated. that you know if enough brothers decide that. is not the right way that that couldn't be changed i think where it's too early to write off that process and to say that he has fully consolidated power. to you i think that we still are doing that just want to send a good five hundred thirty three million dollars five hundred twenty five million dollars it's been a three year period from lucrative military contracts to support for each other's
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wars there is a special relationship between the u.s. president the saudi king and mohamed been some all right right. but that special relationship has been under stress slick and i love the king solomon said king. we're protecting you you might not be there for two weeks without us you have to pay for your village and. we filmed this during the period when the saudi government was officially denying that its agents murdered journalist jamal khashoggi the government later confessed to the killing of the saudi consulate in istanbul and admitted it was a premeditated murder. a lot of fingers are pointed at the crown prince for allegedly ordering the killing in turkey but the u.s. president still has unwavering support for muhammad bin salma i don't know if anyone's going to be able to conclude that the crown prince heard it but i will say
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this i don't know i don't know but whether he did or whether he did he denies it vehemently his father denies it the king family. the case remains open regardless of saudi denials and criminal sentences it risks the prince's grip on power for an investment vision twenty thirty and aramco i.p.o. . despite several attempts the remco and its subsidiaries did not respond to our request for interviews for. the killing of the saudi journalist that has put them in the spotlight and if they come forward and tell the whole truth of what happened then that will be a sign that they're really ready for change if not. they may be faced with harsh.
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economic sanctions. and if that's the case the market. seems to be saying well saudi arabia's economy is going to fall off a cliff on the foreign policy front the kingdom has flirted into a series of adventures none of which have turned out well it is stuck with a garrison along with others from the go gulf cooperation council in bahrain. where under arrest continues and shows no sign of abating. it is it has become. really battered by syria which has been a transformative situation in the middle east brought the russians back in as the major foreign player for example. saudi arabia is relationships with turkey have been badly damaged. by this it has. seen fit to
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divide itself from qatar. and conducted flop paid which again shows no sign of going away and rich essential a divides the gulf cooperation council irreparably and finally of course it is a gauged in a war in yemen with no clear objective that is feasible and no war terminations strategy. saudi aramco said failure to launch and the young leaders stumble from one crisis to another are directly linked there is an urgency to rush into things but also a lack of experience. that is really like planning for the growth of a nation. not the. exit of an i.p.o. and the growth of a nation takes a lot more planning. than
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a couple months and ultimately you see they've pulled back i would guess because they recognize that this is a transformational moment it's going to take. a lot more time and energy to get into the realm of the public markets if they ever get comfortable they may never become for with i know there are elements within so decided who don't want to see that change and they feel that this is too much and too soon and too big and the pushback from the government has been they need to be dragged kicking and screaming into these changes and best is the way it's going to be i see that as a much bigger backlash than even the religious or conservative people is really unemployment and saudis not taking jobs or on they've made a big push to get rid of foreign labor in saudi arabia but the problem is that if you're not replacing that with saudi labor then you're not going to have. an
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economy if people aren't taking jobs and unemployment remains high despite there being jobs then you've got a significant problem and i see that really as the biggest threat to the changes they can make all the decrease they want but if people don't work people aren't working and making money and they don't see that as a valuable part of their lives than going to pacify people with movie theaters. it's all to me a function of how fast they want to get to their group and goal which none of us know that the more they're in the street is obviously toil but they need to be more open and that's the key saudi arabia has to make it on its own internet standard never do it so far it seems to have a different approach right now there's no substitute for oil so it's not going to go away in the short term you know the writing is on the wall and the saudis have have read it. the saudi crown prince is adamant that he is the hope of change
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he may have the desire but what he can actually achieve with me is the big question . that. the apology that he should get in the house this was the media savvy princes first public appearance three weeks after the murder of jamal khashoggi at an event and likely referred to as davos in the desert that. hello again to welcome back well here across the northern western part of the levant we are still seeing some clouds and we are going to be seeing some snow in the higher elevations of turkey over the next few days back who is also going to be seeing a mostly cloudy day there but as we go towards saturday the snow begins to dispute
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as we go through the end of the day down across the coast though for beirut we are going to see seventeen degrees jerusalem at thirteen degrees there and baghdad is going to be about nineteen but we do expect to see the rain on the increase particularly down here across the southern portions of iran and that is going to extend across the gulf as well so on saturday doha it's not looking too bad in terms of rain we are going to be seeing more clouds in the forecast twenty five degrees is going to be the high but by the time we get to a sunday that is when the rain is going to be coming in and the temperature is going to be dropping so we know that it could be heavy at times over towards abu dhabi same story as also going to be a problem with more rain in your forecasts and then down here across the southern parts of africa we are going to be seeing plenty of rain across much of the area anywhere from johannesburg down towards durban as well as into cape town and that could also be quite windy as well on sunday things look a little bit better across the region but we are still going to see some rain across johannesburg with the tempter twenty four and durban at about twenty eight degrees for you.
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counting the cost this week we're focusing on venezuela where people are scavenging for food as a political crisis unfolds how the game of oil is influencing events overgrown how predators are playing a role and why the reports of rum but. i really feel liberated as a journalist was. getting to the truth as it always does with his job. that is why. he won't rule out u.s. military intervention to solve the crisis in his country.
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and this is al jazeera live for and also coming up. for months on the way look at alvah the investigations gone into the matter of saudi journalists. left palestinians right israelis will take you down the highway dubbed apartheid road. and cast claim the first major book title be to hold on time. three one in the asia cup final. but as well as opposition leader is showing no signs of backing down from a political standoff with president nicolas maduro i. was declared himself interim president has told al-jazeera he's rejected an offer from mexico and to mediate talks with my door he's backed by several last in american and western countries
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including the united states they're ramping up the pressure. on majority to step down as the country and a long running economic crisis that's for millions of the country. in america as there is a new man sat down with. she asked him about the possibility of a u.s. military intervention. so that any battled president nicolas maduro overseeing military exercises intended to let opponents know that he has the means with which to crush in israel as internal enemies are clearly not intimidate the man who insists that he's venezuela's legitimate leader looked at all the part of an interim president as he called on the news wayland's to return to the streets on saturday to further pressure president maduro to resign. in an interview with al-jazeera self-proclaimed president quite all declined offers from mexico russia and the e.u.
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to print both sides to the negotiating table but. here they are not to conflict in size but all we have he said entire country to the wants change and a very tiny group that sustains itself with weapons stolen from the republic and with constant threats against the same army that sustains them and a citizenship that is massacre in their stand the very good intentions of mexico and europe and i understand the ultimatum the european union has given maduro the opposition has been willing to negotiate we tried everything about it we have abstain we gun hunger strikes we have protested and they have killed us washington says that all options are on the table would you support u.s. military intervention if all else fails we will do everything possible so that in the shortest time possible with the least social cost we can generous to belittle ungovernability in the country to attend the humanitarian emergency to reactivate
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production in the country and to achieve freedom venezuela but when pressed he refused to rule. doubt. earlier u.s. national security chief john bolton issued another ultimatum to model advising him to resign quickly or he could end up in guantanamo where the u.s. has a military base for suspected terrorists. despite close coordination and support from the u.s. why dollar dismissed accusations that the white house is dictating the terms of regime change. meanwhile spain's foreign minister just separate says the u.s. is pressuring the e.u. to c. style law governs. this as model and his opponents each prepared to take to the streets to test their strengths it's taken at least forty lives in less than two weeks you see in human al-jazeera caracas. our interview with place shortly after u.s. vice president mike pence made a strong anti murderers speech at a gathering of exiles in florida takes
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a look at how american domestic politics a say playing washington's increasingly hawkish where the policy. at a rally on friday republican florida senator marco rubio was emphatic my little still has time to leave where it's up to him but that window will close that time will pass and then it will be too late rubio has helped shape the trump administration's venezuelan policy reportedly speaking to the president at least once a month on the issue since shortly after his inauguration florida's venezuelan emigre community has forcefully lobbied for regime change the ferocity it displays with the overthrow of nicolas maduro has seemingly replaced that once shown by florida's cuban american population for u.s. intervention in its homeland younger cuban floridians are against confrontation with iran or the venezuelan community is key to the republican party's hopes of
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retaining power in florida and in the white house as changing demographics soften its grip on the state one cuban by rubio has received twenty thousand dollars from an anti cuban government group co-founded by maurice your cover carone rubio has since hope club by carone joined the national security council at the trump white house he's pushed for the escalation against the venezuelan government not the donald trump needed much encouragement he asked for a venezuela briefing on his second day in office over his focus was how finally to bring down the government in cuba by making it financially difficult for caracas to supply have an hour with eight and that remains the ultimate goal the white house is transparent it seeks the overthrow of the cuban venezuelan and nicaraguan governments and u.s. control over the world's largest oil reserves it will make a big difference to the united states economically if we could have american oil companies really invest in and produce the oil capabilities in venezuela with the
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election of right wing governments in the region and the emergence of one guy do it was decided the time and come for regime change why. does popular will party has a strange itself from even large sectors of venezuela's opposition that favor dialogue and don't want war however he has a strong constituency in washington it was washington after all that groomed him for this moment but there are concerns in washington that the administration has mistake it opposition to president much duros for support for u.s. intervention or for a candidate asking for military intervention and there are fears about what such a hardline foreign policy team will recommend if it has miscalculated a team that now includes elliott abrams who in the one nine hundred eighty s. oversaw the us his support for regimes that employed death squads in central america she had her town see al-jazeera. the battle for one of the last eisel
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controlled pockets of northern syria has its place tens of thousands of people backed kurdish forces have been fighting the armed groups and their arms or the un refugee agency is calling for a transit site for civilians fleeing to alcohol comes population has tripled in the thirty three thousand and the past two months joins us live now from gaziantep on the turkey syria border and some of the fighting and the weather in this past northern part of syria is creating something of a humanitarian crisis. absolutely lore of you've been hearing those reports for the last few weeks now where people were trapped as the the kurdish forces backed by the united states moved forward diverge taking this last bastion of control from isis fighters what has been making matters worse is because the fighting is continuing in the reward desert part in the euphrates valley in the resort problems there are no camps nearby so people have to travel
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for days to try and reach safety and that they have to do while dodging not just icing but also other side the other side as well because this area's been under the control of isis fighters for so long many of these people are viewed with suspicions including women and children so what has been happening as well these people take this long arduous journey when they reach the entrances of these camps they're held there for hours and hours sometimes days where the screening process takes place and all of this is happening while the advance to take back territory from eisel continues. for the last eight weeks kurdish fighters are being badly nice in one of the last pockets in northeast syria they're confident that most areas are now under their control in the initial problem. activists say more than two hundred people have been killed in the fighting shelling and airstrikes by u.s. led coalition forces. we are.
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all. fighting to respect their obligation and there are international humanitarian. aid in. many families had to leave and foot the syrian red crescent says more than twenty four thousand people have been displaced in a matter of weeks. it's a lot riskier at night but more people arriving to nearby camps but we were besieged in because we're so hungry and tired for two days we had no sleep and no food for fifteen days all that was available was grass leaves and bark from trees there was a humanitarian crisis brewing in the remote desert areas under rice and a lack of food made worse by a shortage of medicines and doctors in the last few days dozens of isis fighters have surrendered some civilian say they had stopped them from leaving and the mostly kurdish forces are concerned but i still fighters and their families have fled among the civilians. seventy five percent of them were
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working with seventy five percent iraqis twenty percent syrians and five percent foreign those from central asia europe america germany and other parts of the world in addition to isis atrocities in the area coalition attacks have also reportedly killed civilians the u.s. led coalition always said that their air strike targets positions yes in some cases the surely but these positions were in heavily populated residential areas this is why dozens of innocent civilians were being killed. unicef says that these thirty two children have been killed because of violence displacement and harsh conditions in northern and eastern syria the world health organization says it's extremely concerned about the deteriorating humanitarian situation as more families arrive in already crowded camps aid agencies are demanding unhindered access now be the situation becomes worsening worsening by the day. telling us that it is not
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just the fight against the that they are concerned about it's also what happens next so twenty four thousand people displaced they fear that more people are coming to word these camps which are already stretched to the limits and they've been calling on not just the bashar al assad government but also u.s. backed as the air forces to allow unhindered access to provide help to these people . reporting the. washington post. was murdered and the saudi consulate in istanbul his body still has not been found nations special. investigation last seen. on october second and he never left the.

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