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tv   Counting the Cost 2019 Ep 14  Al Jazeera  April 9, 2019 8:33am-9:02am +03

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he. was. a rich and diverse culture explored through its music stumble songs of the city. hello i'm adrian said again this is counting the cost of al-jazeera a weekly look at the world of business and economics this week a war economy a divided nation two central banks debt piling up libya's wealth has pitted the east against the west. also this week our conflict with russian backed fighters has hurt ukraine's most important economic region plus we find out why one of india's most trusted economists has cast doubt on the nation's economic growth.
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almost eighty years after the fall of want to get off his regime in libya the country is deeply divided between east and west a war economy has enriched armed groups a battle to control the country's oil fields is ongoing as the forces of hell if i have to advance on tripoli al jazeera is laura but mentally explains how he's funded after four years of recession improved political and security arrangements have seen the economy bounce back all his underpin that growth but it's also the cause of the ongoing political tussle for control of the country's wealth. while the united nations backs the internationally recognized government in tripoli in the eastern city of al bayda there is a parallel government affiliated with a to break base parliament and the warlords. and it's backed by saudi arabia the u.a.e. and egypt both governments have their own central banks the central bank in arbeit
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a city has sold bonds worth more than twenty three billion dollars to fund its wage bill watterson prints up money for tripoli russia has printed ten billion dinars for the parallel ministration in the east. libya is a wealthy nation it's eighty billion dollars in oil revenues and foreign reserves are managed by tripoli but have to has seized oil fields in the east and the south of the country to pay for this and to keep the economy's head above water libya's state or national oil company plus spend fifty billion dollars to increase production to prevent two thousand and eleven levels as the country's debts keep piling up there's very little inclination for all sides to come together. and the conflict in libya is not based on ideology thoughts or different situations what's going on in libya is a conflict of well such
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a conflict has to be sorted out in a sense that what has happened during the last eight years should be stop the system before was a big failure as it was based on collecting money plundering the wealth and exploiting influence for more plundering record tearing and corruption. even as the un has bridge the divide for negotiating a ceasefire in tripoli a new thirty four billion dollar budget and in trouble in the all crescent selami those benefiting from the chaos. is not normal of all the fun in libya new million every single day at a time where the potentials of the medium class are shrinking where they are also in libya a lot of officials insist to stay in their posts which allow them to get fortunes that are not invested at all in libya unfortunately in libya in our region they seized the public money for investing it and laundering it abroad. the east continues to set up its own government ministries and oil company hiring thousands
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of soldiers and civil servants the central bank plans to sell more debts to finance its new ministries raising doubts the two halves of the country have any desire to unify. sure there is a manly for counting the cost out to sea or well to serious economic status and it only spoke to recover from a geo political analyst at energy aspects he began by asking if the united nations' envoys assessment that the conflict had nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with the nation's wealth was true i would tend to agree with the u.n. special envoy on this i don't think ideology really police any significant role in the conflict if anything ideology tends to be a layer or an excuse that's what sides and to use in order to increase their rich timoci especially abroad especially internationally actually when you look at median call flip what emerges is that's what really matters is money it's all of
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our controlling the brands whether it's all or whether it's access to foreign currency and the militias have been fighting each other particularly in places like tripoli exactly because they need and they want access to the rants your in order to reduce tribute it and to affect really support their patronage that it's and what do nations like saudi arabia the u.a.e. and egypt hope to achieve by supporting khalifa haftar. well there are long term goal is basically all about the beneath you first of all the stuff that is asian of libya particularly when it comes to a country inject the show has a very long and porous border with libya and is obviously concerned with the problem of terrorist groups using crossing the border to in order to attack egypt but when it comes do you do the u.a.e.
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and saudi arabia. is equally important but obviously what they care about is their suppression of the is the most groups that are seen as part of the western libyan government the west and the big corporation they believe the how we've asked our is part of their sort of ideological war you of anti islamism basically the opposition to that was the brotherhood in more intern or all across the region so if you are going to look into ideology people i heart there are also on the other side used ideology to boast and to use their own legitimacy in the eyes of our nerves like saudi arabia and the u.a.e. so is there an end in sight i mean if you consider what's happening on the east side of the country you've got a parallel economy you've got institutions being created that doesn't seem like an endgame where if somebody wants to unify the country it's not necessarily
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a game and most importantly a military end game to the conflict in libya remains despite all the planes and all the posts from eastern libya from people after claiming that they can actually aim for tripoli they can conquer to tripoli in the next few weeks this is still remains and released even though you controls now two thirds of the country yes who's trying to build parlow institutions in eastern libya is trying to centralize . our most importantly the end game here remains a negotiated settlement now the point here though is that in the eyes of people a hostile or a negotiated settlement right now with him controlling two thirds of the country is a negotiated settlement on easter so somewhere like some sort of agreement where he can be the most important dominant player exactly because you controls two
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thirds of the country and it controls most importantly more than ninety percent of all the resources in libya so all the conversation is shifted here it's now all about empowering hafter and convincing or the other parties to join him even though it might not like him it may not want him. as a teacher effectively in charge of the country and to that end the twenty three billion that the central bank in the east has raised and the money that's being printed and sent from russia is that to help him in these calls. well especially when it comes to support from russia which has been i would say quite a bit us in. the after the you want to support him but not want to be seen as exclusively backing somebody like hastert who is the want to look without room on these are the kind of measures that they can use effectively to support him you
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know her subtle way it can still be seen as supporting after y.-o. not really throwing all their support so yes all these financial measures are i would say tools that are used to give some degree of some financial support to haftar who needs to entertain to support a very large other niche network and obviously to support. these of its army which continues there continues to grow balls in terms of color territorial control levels in terms of the number of soldiers and officers that are not part of it is this side or so have to he controls the oil but he's not able to sell the oil so this is this of course the problem for him right. not necessarily i think it's a misreading of what actually hart only seeming for what he wants is to be seen as
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a legitimate player in that you can call that most importantly as somebody who can bring stability and therefore can be trusted by international community so for him actually controlling the oil is an instrument it's a tool that he can use to boost his all legitimacy he can basically go to the international community and to the west in particular and say look i don't control the oil here and yet i'm not trying to sell it in. i'm still keeping everything as it is on the arrangements are still buying it or i am the person who can bring order and stability to your sector and i will not attempt to send an independent yes of course he did try to pass to do this then was more sort of isolated a tent rather a strategy that he was seriously pursuing ricardo fabiani thank you very much for your time thank you still to come on counting the cost it's bigger than apple
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alphabet and amazon combined we take a dive in the saudi aramco this financial. but first an actor who once played the president of ukraine in the hit t.v. show is leading the race to unseat president petro poroshenko whoever wins the second round one off will inherit a deadlocked conflict in the east with russian backed faces now into its fifth year the war has hurt ukraine's most economically important region drained public resources and exhausted voters and there's no end in sight now to zero as jonah hole reports now from the city of mary a pole where the conflict is never far away. in ukraine's war zone a new breed of entrepreneurs. alexi used his disability payout as an injured veteran to set up a pizza business. being given to motivated people are happy to spend their money rather than save it because they know anything can happen at any moment. he's not
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particularly enthusiastic about the upcoming presidential election. and back. because of their spinelessness it took volunteers to protect this country where the leadership was too weak to protect it it's all soldiers like alexi from the port city of mariupol formed the hours of but talon in two thousand and fourteen famous for preventing russian backed separatists from extending their territorial gains in the donbass region all the way to the sea but mario poll has paid a heavy price its once busy port sits idle empty of the cargo ships that carried steel and coal produced here to international markets. russia's efforts to disrupt sea traffic off the annexed crimea peninsula include illegal cargo inspections and a bridge built across the current strait that's too low for larger vessels heading from mariupol to pass beneath you more but if. they can forgive us that our
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country is in the band until zenda stands that ukraine is a free and democratic country unfortunately it will be hard to establish these. then late last year an unprovoked russian attack on three ukrainian navy boats twenty four captured ukrainian sailors are still being held in moscow and international shipping is far less frequently seen in these waters since last november's attacks on those ukrainian naval vessel suggested russia had new territorial designs by strangling traded ukraine's two main force on the sea of as of russia has taken effective control of this inland sea off the coast of crimea in response president petro poroshenko declared martial law in the east if he thought that would win him votes he was wrong with more than thirteen thousand dead this country is no longer united behind a war it can't win anna knows that despite losing her brother on the front line in
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two thousand and fifteen she says it's time for peace as are the war should. he died for ukraine to be trained for the ukrainian language to be spoken and the crane to be an equal strong european country that hope of a bright future has begun to fade on the shores and battlefields of eastern ukraine . now more and more americans are struggling to pay their rent and the problem isn't just limited to major cities eight million people in one hundred fifty two rural communities are struggling without decent homes poverty job losses and a lack of government programs are fueling the crisis gallica reports from florida across rural communities in the us a crisis is unfolding with potentially catastrophic consequences affordable housing is in desperately short supply while the rents for existing homes which are often in disrepair
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a rising to an affordable rate if you can't be here it's a story that panetta al green may knows all too well like many in rural communities she's paid minimum wage and will be facing brants of post a two thousand dollars if she had found help a message to politicians is simple everything is so high now everything is expensive and we don't get pay more. so everything goes up but our pay doesn't get goes up they say we still get paid as a minimum wage so we can afford it panetta in a family now live here at rural neighborhoods in homestead rents a subsidized by the government as the projects like hitting are in vocally short supplies and we lose business and if we lose business is. our billets president stephen kirk says if issues like funding new construction and government intervention on to dress to the future for rural communities is bleak it may just
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require low interest loans that may require. subsidies for rents but without the us we're we're killing rural america we're killing rural towns and people have to leave to find jobs in other places and then they face a similar problem in urban america across the us newly arrived migrant workers the elderly and the poor of facing a crisis that if left unchecked will have consequences for the entire nation in many places food banks are busier than ever direct effect of the rising cost of living what projects like rural neighborhoods do for families is give them dignity and security but the picture for eight million others across the us is growing increasingly desperate experts say one in four rural communities is now facing an affordable housing crisis set to get worse if it's not addressed. as india prepares for elections prime minister narendra modi is fighting his campaign on security the threat of terrorism from pakistan rather than his economic track record but
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a former governor of the indian central bank has cast doubt on the country's growth numbers rajon said that he doubted that india was really growing at seven percent the respected economist warned the greatest problem for the country was job highlighting twenty five million people had applied for just ninety thousand jobs on the railways he called on the government to improve the collection of jobs data despite those concerns most investors expect moody's ruling coalition to retain power the widely followed s. and p. b.s.e. sensex stock index roared to a record high which is surprising as of the last month it was one of the region's worst performers so what's behind the surge well international investors have snapped up a net four point three billion dollars in indian stocks in march the biggest monthly total in two years so why are overseas investors buying indian stocks let's find out joining us now from london u.n. thompson ewan's the head of emerging market equities at neptune investment
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management and runs an india fund good to have you with us so we've got this former reserve bank of india governor calling into question the real rate of growth in india what does that mean to you as someone who invests in the country but then you get india you've got a country which is always demonstrating really it was a great premium and has economic growth relative to the rest of magic markers i think what you get with india is always this this great premium you get an earnings premium you get an r. we preview him so he was a really a very attractive market i think right now in the short term this clearly a lot going on in terms of the political roadmap ahead with elections coming up and i think the results of that will focus they have a particularly significant impact on the reform goes and where growth goes i think in the short term. that there is obviously the question of the election how that will play out in terms of growth but i think when you take a step back you've also got to consider that no india really has that level of growth which is frankly pretty consistent regardless of who is in power so you
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actually get five six percent growth as really as a bedrock and then you can get that extra growth on top of that so i think you know within emerging markets over a longer term if that growth rate is pretty consistent there obviously right now there is quite a high degree of uncertainty whether it's from outside of india the fed looking at bond yields looking where the dollar is looking where oil prices are i don't see within india in terms of where the election is going to sort of come out in the end of may in about a month's time as an investor does that not make you nervous and the relationship between india and pakistan two surely that must cause you some just as. you know i think when you look at india one of the things ironically given what's happened with kashmir is that india's actually one of the sort of least geopolitically affected markets with an emerging market so clearly within each you have a number of markets which are extremely sensitive to the broader geopolitical events and actually what you have in india is largely a country which is removed from most of the major geopolitical issues now what you
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do have clearly is the frictions across the border with pakistan particularly surrounding kashmir therefore it's actually quite ironic in a way that since these tensions most recently fled in february you actually see that the markets behave relatively well and actually that this situation is diffused to an extent so actually this is the one geopolitical issue that can sort of arise for india it actually india's been one of the better performing markets since this has has kicked off and actually as. tensions really settle down this is really sort of moved out of the headlines which is an extremely rich showing as an investor in a way this flash point we've seen recently is very very happy to see that that has sort of defused as the last month has gone on but also we see that actually f.b.i. investors have actually put about six or seven billion dollars in india over the last six or seven weeks which is from the point in me if every when we started seeing these tensions varying up so i think that is not always looking out it's
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a geopolitical tensions and my eyes are running for the door actually we've seen quite the opposite over the last month and a half there's no doubt that the country has huge potential well educated population an entrepreneurial class if you like as an investor what is it that you're looking at when you make investment decisions in the country. absolutely so i think you know we opened the conversation just now talking about the elections coming up we're also talking about the sort of the growth rate prospects in the short term for me as an emerging market investor looking over the longer you know with my eyes of broad am hat on and looking at a wide array of virgin markets the thing that makes growth really sustainable is just meet the the quality. of the people the quality of the companies that we're investing in i think when you look at india so from my perspective i see release of the best companies best run companies in emerging markets i see a very very talented workforce i see a sort of huge demographic potential of the country and i see
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a strength of institutions and i think that really can't be overestimated the importance of having a strong and independent central bank you would have an independent judiciary and oversee as we see with the election in there is. you know the world's largest democracy and that is going to be demonstrated in a billion people go to the polls in the next month so i think really that long term framework for growth in terms of institutions in terms of that demographic growth potential i think that's what you're getting as well as the talented people who run the companies that are in the workforce that's really what you're accessing when you're looking at new growth and jobs in the short term there is all this noise but i think over the longer term that's really where the capacity to have that high return on equity comes in here and really good to talk to you on counting the cost many thanks indeed for being with us thanks for having me saudi arabia has released financial details for the first time since the one nine hundred seventy s. the data shows the reserves of the world's number one oil firm a much lower than expected despite that saudi aramco has still overtaken apple road
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dutch shell and exxon mobil to become the world's most profitable company some of the job that reports. one of saudi arabia's most highly guarded secrets is out or at least partly revealed the state oil company has unveiled data for the first time since the one nine hundred seventy s. saudi aramco had to publish the information in a prospectus for potential investors as it prepares to raise capital and buy a petrochemical company called sobbing the data also raises questions about the size of saudi oil reserves betrayed by the revenue to run the kingdom that of our oil field is one of the world's largest surprise in the prospectus is that the around close its production capacity is three point eight million barrels a day now that still is far away the largest feel in the world what people are concerned about as it used to produce well referred to in those days what we've understood over the years is that this is an intentional reduction of capacity in the war the sabbath purchase comes after saudi aramco plans for
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a public share offering their i.p.o. was put on hold last year it was meant to be the world's largest which saudi arabia evaluated at two trillion dollars the i.p.o. is not only going to be about whether those interests it's also going to be about whether the salaries are prepared to offer their crown jewel their most important company the thing that is very rabia provides all the revenue for the country or the bulk of it are they willing to really put that overseas and put them in a position where you know people could potentially have lawsuits against it you know make claims against it and i think a lot of people in saudi arabia have think very carefully that's what they want to do. the data shows that tax pays to the state has been greatly reduced to investors there are also questions about crown prince mohammed bin solomon's ambitious vision twenty thirty the investors who look at these all of these aspects technical influence on government interference and government in their oil company operations
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and then of course the overall sustainability of saudi regime in the next ten twenty years money raised from around cause business and potential sell off is at the heart of diversifying the saudi economy which so far remains a distant vision and that's our show for this week if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen you can get in touch with us tweet me i'm at a finnigan on twitter use the hash tag c.t.c. when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of al-jazeera dot net is our e-mail address as always there's plenty more few online at al-jazeera dot com slash c.t.c. that takes you straight to a page day of fight individual reports links even entire episodes for you to catch up on but that's it for this edition of counting the cost of a free and second for the whole team here and thanks for being with us the news on al-jazeera is next.
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i'm. not you know. some of it i like. hello melissa proud of indoor hall with the headlines on al-jazeera and benjamin netanyahu main rival has just voted in israel's parliamentary elections former military chief benny gantz is expected to put up a strong showing as that the now has six a record first term as prime minister. heavy gunfire has been heard in sudan's capital was security forces have been trying to break up a three day massacre at the army headquarters but the army has allowed protesters to enter the headquarters to protect them from gunfire and tear gas being fired by other security forces there are reports that one protester has been killed and a number of soldiers and. has more on the protests demanding the resignation of
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president omar al bashir. they saying they're here to stay thousands of protesters gathered for a third night outside beyond these headquarters in the capital what. they're calling on president obama did but she had to resign and one of the military's help in forming a transitional government. earlier on monday security forces fired shots in the air and tear gas in an attempt to disperse the demonstrators. one soldier was killed and several protesters injured. activists say the soldiers were for the first time helping shield demonstrators from police soldiers were also seen handing out water to the protestors. of. the you to liberate.

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