Skip to main content

tv   NEWSHOUR  Al Jazeera  April 30, 2019 2:00am-3:01am +03

2:00 am
more than three thousand people packed in to the white building you see over my shoulder. a huge responsibility of trying to figure out what peace means for afghanistan going forward watch the red lines what the priorities will be for the afghan government should they get to talk pace with the taliban in the future with the three thousand people in the thirty percent of them a woman in they come from all over afghanistan representing different tribes different religions different ages different ethnicities coming together to try to answer four questions they are what needs to be done to achieve long lasting peace in afghanistan what value should be safeguarded in talks with the taliban or kind of personalities should represent the government in these talks and lastly on foreign policy what type of actions towards foreign countries should be taken for those countries that do support the taliban now the taliban not happy about the loya jirga they put out a statement saying that they feel like this is all
2:01 am
a show by the u.s. that they find it disrespectful to the log histories of the way the long history of the loya jirga and that it does in fact that i spaced talks they're not the only ones who are not happy with the loya jirgah taking place it was boycotted by the sea delay he is the second highest ranking afghan official he wasn't here today because he said i just don't think it will be productive and i don't feel like i was consulted in the lead up former prison hama cause i also was in attendance he boycotted her president got a passing judgment during his opening statement saying that he is aware that some leaders in or here but he will leave it up to the population to decide what they think about their absence. to come your knowledge is here including really examine mexico's role in the fight against illegal prescription drugs plus. a reporting from tokyo with japanese are preparing for the first imperial education in more than two her. years.
2:02 am
how is he settled and dry across much of the middle east now that a bit of cloud just making his way towards afghanistan bright skies coming back in across iran into iraq a little bit of clout they say just for syria but it should be lossy settled and dry twenty five twenty six celsius that the beirut said fall to roost live sort of that calls into iraq but that it's thirty degrees celsius chills of the to northern parts of iraq but by and large it does look a settled over the coming days and that is of course good news slushie settle to afghanistan you much to catch the odd road show here but elsewhere across the region as you can see we are keeping that sunshine in this increasingly halts of course always here in doha around thirty four celsius on shoes day again plenty of
2:03 am
sunshine coming through winds not say bad so they should feel really quite present to make the most of it the temperatures are starting to ramp up thirty six celsius in doha as you get into the middle parts of the way down into southern africa with this law is he trying now across much of south africa a good part of mozambique what it calls northern parts of the country still seeing the remnants of tropical cycling kenneth and that means more heavy showers here as we go through a good part of this week. i mean you want to get down to the nitty gritty the reality whether on line when you have a male chauvinist that is plants with the entire global federation and it is really a fight to get a piece of that pilot or if you join at sunset. to pick up their mind this is a dialogue everyone has a voice to talk to us in our live you tube chat and you too can be in history join
2:04 am
the conversation on out is iraq. welcome back a quick amount of top stories here on al-jazeera talks between sudan's ruling military on the opposition i presume with more discussions on the transition to civilian government two sides announced the formation of a joint council on sunday night. explain socialist party celebrating victory in the general election but it didn't win enough seats to rule on its populous parties also made headway with the far right folks gaining seats in parliament for the first time. in our souls official media has released a video that appears to show its leader abu bakr al baghdadi if confirmed it be the
2:05 am
first public appearance by the leader since twenty fourteen he talks about the battle of bugaboos in syria which ended in march at the end of the video and audio messages added mentioning the attacks in sri lanka al-jazeera cannot confirm the authenticity of the video or way it was filmed large as it was charles stratford following the story from iraq's capital charlie so what more do we know about the video and how significant is it. think it's safe to say that this is hugely significant it's the first time that this is baghdad and it is a recent recording is the first time that we've seen him since he made that announcement to be in the lead mosque declaring himself follicle to play a caliphate back in two thousand and fourteen and as you say we can't independently verify the video see him sitting in looks to be a room with a with a white sheet background he's talking to figures who is facing mosques and.
2:06 am
he's big it seems to be headed and he talks about the ongoing what he describes as the jihad he talks about the battle in body goods which schools do sell on the syrian side of the iraq syrian border that was the last stronghold of flight is that indeed. in recent weeks he praises what he describes as the martyrs in that battle he slams what he describes as the barbarity of the groups how easy or make sure that the cross. to the christian nations against what he describes as the muslim nations. he also told queen trustingly about the standing gavel when he discusses the toppling of the regimes in algeria and. give us an indication as to cause to be a time frame when this video was shot he said something along the lines that
2:07 am
despite these leaders having been toppled the people the top of them know what they want to now and the tyrants will truly be replaced through jihad and then as you say the video games that are around. thirty minutes in the video is about eighteen minutes long in total and around thirty minutes is the video a walk purportedly is back daddy's voice is heard to be praising the suicide bombers of course that's a replica tracks that happened in sri lanka on easter sunday were so well more than two hundred fifty people dead. this is hugely significant certainly if indeed it is being recorded in in recent weeks. i don't think the government certainly around the world and certainly the iraqi government is under any illusions that the ideological battle against isis or goes on the military battle may well. have been
2:08 am
won certainly with the fall the car this huge area that in two thousand and fifteen right the way across syria jordan area but it's believed to have been similar in the size of jordan was controlled by ice also that military campaign is the one. we will expect the politicians here in iraq and they will say that the fight to the hearts and minds against radicalized. fighters who are members of are so many years who disappeared back into what is described as some of the silly plans of iraq continues but certainly a very significant event today in him appearing. to pursue for government and those involved in the fight against global terrorism all right such often in baghdad charlie thank you for that let's cross over now to jordan you know nic he's the author of the war of isis on the road to the caliphate
2:09 am
he joins us live now from the iraqi capital good health ignatz can do you think the video is and why do you think i thought it sounded to release this now. it's an important message to our all its all its members that other daddy the leader is still there in a lot of latter days there are off the fights and by who is in syria it was quite a bit of criticism about the fact that the leadership was not actually there that they were somewhere on the ground they were being fed well as we can see actually from the photo. while his people were dying of hunger and were being killed. also important at the moment is that isis is giving off the message that it is now a global organisation there is no longer a state as such but there is a global or the organisation that is attacking globally and this video
2:10 am
and dimensioning of what happened in sri lanka and seems to indicate that this was really a revenge for what happened in embargoes if you look at that it's it's also if you compare it to videos that we have seen from al qaeda leader osama bin laden and you see that day have taken the same situation as a gun next to me that was a gun next to. osama bin laden. but daddy's message here is i'm well yes i've gotten older. i am the new leader of the global. jihadi organizations. i am the one that is in place of osama bin laden and that's how i see the message should have what do you make of the of the timing of the release of the video because it comes
2:11 am
just a week and a day or so after those sri lanka bombings but eisen of claim responsibility for. yeah that is that is exactly the timing because they want to show was. how we're going to be we're going to be everywhere are we are no longer going to be in iraq and syria we have all these different places where you have to watch out for us all our people are going to attack in different places global jihad is a fact. judith just just briefly before you go. interesting will security services around the world be listening to this video. well it will be very interested but they will be also be interested to look at it because we have been told by daddy's ill he is not bring well he is he has been wounded now if you look at came he is well hurt. pretty view compare him but five years ago when
2:12 am
that was the last time and the only time that we saw him when he declared did acknowledge but in mosul he has aged considerably but he seems to be quite healthy and quite well and quite capable of leading the organization that he's in charge of so security forces i'm sure are going to look at that as well and they will try to find any any detail that will delete them to him but there are every pore arts that he used in syria that he is in leave from your area where isis still has a pocket. we don't know but perhaps the video will help to find out whether that is true. that we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed for your time. as a new defense minister the appointment as part of the government's overhaul of the intelligence and security services the president has also appointed a new acting police chief but the current chief has refused to step down he's been accused of failing to act on warnings that suicide bombers would target churches. i
2:13 am
want to just over a week since the easter sunday bombings which killed more than two hundred fifty people in life are slowly returning to normal but security remains tight phenomenas reports waiting for business these vegetables sellers in a columbus suburb are hoping things will return to normal soon lot of any of them but i'm letting you know they mean that there's no one on the road we're usually here to late night and finish our goods but today we have only brought less than one tenth of our usual stock. security remains tight after last week's coordinated bombing attacks and it's not just the police and security forces this shopping mall has started checking all visitors but for sri lankans who lived through a civil war that lasted twenty six years the new measures while inconvenient are necessary i'm not scared at all this is a kind of a bond we are not scared. by the security forces them into that is there something
2:14 am
in our hearts you know of what happened last week but then yeah we have to step we have to make a living we have to survive. our schools and universities have been disrupted closed for two weeks but these kids don't seem too concerned. a recent government ban on any form of face covering that he knows the identification of individuals so a number of muslim women step up without their veils as sri lankans adjust to the security situation many are getting angry at what led to it more still be resources and the personnel people had to walk to. and that's you nor the government the government run by presidents. prime minister be promising so. much more than he. did result he says
2:15 am
is a debilitating and demoralized security system and now sri lankans must deal with increased security. and greater restrictions on monday though they dealt with traffic jam for the first time it will be a week back at the market traders are hoping for better days fernandez. that's one heavy fighting in southern tripoli as forces loyal to the warlord keep up their attacks on the libyan capital after fighters have advanced on taking control of areas near the international airport the tripoli based government recognized by the u.n. says it's bringing in reinforcements to repel the attack but a call made by president trump earlier this month to offering support as angered some members of the president's own party republican senator lindsey graham described it as unnerving. i don't know what the phone call hopper was about but it had an unnerving effect on the ground i was in tunisia and the president had called
2:16 am
dora general from the east of libya moving on tripoli and saying thank you for helping with isis and half guard did but the phone call seems to be perceived in the region as we're picking sides. of the wall has more now from tripoli. forces loyal to. her have to have advanced toward the. neighborhood that's about fifteen kilometers away from tripoli city center and eyewitnesses in al sadr and locals there say that they have seen have to his forces engaging against forces loyal to the you and the recognized government of national accord in the streets and inside the densely populated areas namely in a neighborhood on the southern part of the libyan capital we know that during the past two weeks after his forces have been losing ground and a government of national called forces have been pushing have forces back beyond
2:17 am
tripoli in active international airport have his forces after they lost ground they intensified air strikes specially night air strikes this intuitively means a very tense especially for civilians living in nearby fighting areas and the government forces say that they are receiving more troops to push have to his forces back to their old locations they also say that the are able to push have to his forces back beyond their administrative borders of the capital tripoli we know are turkey's president is backing libya's u.n. recognize government in its fight against the wall or he thought after russia typer the one described as an advance on tripoli as a plot against the libyan people he says turkey will support the tripoli based government as an attempt to drive have to ask fighters about. an attack on
2:18 am
a protestant church in between a fast has left six people dead gunman shot five worshippers in a pastor as they were leaving a service in a small northern town of. recently there's been a surge in attacks attributed to armed groups based in the north. gerry's former national police chief has appeared in court of a corruption allegations according to algerian media reports abdul danny harmala arrived at the court into west of the capital algiers with his two sons or was fired in june last year for president abdul aziz but a. time for a quick check of the headlines here on al-jazeera talks between sudanese opposition groups and the military have wrapped up on monday with no firm agreement on how to move forward on saturday night the two sides announced the formation of a joint council but no further details have been agreed upon just yet it's expected that once formed the joint council will lead the country into national elections
2:19 am
are held. very close to reaching an overall solution that will make everybody happy . to get the country out of this crisis we're still in negotiations to define powers in specialized roles so they can act as a base for us to define the different levels of representation in the government. i suppose official media has released a video that appears to show its leader abu bakar al baghdadi if confirmed it would be the first public appearance by the leader since twenty fourteen it talks about the battle of bugaboos in syria which ended in march at the end of the video and audio messages added mentioning the attacks in sri lanka al-jazeera cannot confirm the authenticity of the video or where it was filmed. as a new defense minister the appointments part of the government's overhaul of the intelligence and security services the president has also appointed a new acting police chief but the current chief has refused to step down he's been accused of failing to act on the warnings that suicide bombers for target churches and assembly of prominent afghans is taking place in the capital kabul to discuss
2:20 am
talks between the afghan government and the taliban the meeting known as the loya jirgah has been a way to bring afghans together for centuries. but many have boycotted the event saying it would not be productive. as been heavy fighting in southern tripoli as forces loyal to the warlord anything have to keep up their attacks on the libyan capital after fighters have advanced and taken control of areas near the international airport the tripoli based government recognized by the united nations says it's bringing in reinforcements to repel the attack. in mozambique as government says thirty eight people have died so far after a strong flattened entire villages on thursday heavy rains from kenneth caused flooding and destruction in the northeastern city of pemba officials say seven hundred thousand people are at risk so those are the headlines the news continues
2:21 am
here on al jazeera off the inside story that's watching. it's a threat iran has made before but this time the stakes are higher the u.s. strangling iran's oil exports teheran's threatening to shut off the strait of hormuz one of the world's most important shipping lanes but one of the consequences not just for iran but the region and the global oil markets this is inside story.
2:22 am
hello and welcome to inside story i'm kemal santa maria when you think of important waterways in the world you probably think of places like the sewers or the panama canal is vital manmade shipping lanes which transformed global trade but perhaps just as important is the strait of hormuz a choke point as it's known through which twenty percent of the world's oil is carried by tank is now the united states decision to impose further economic sanctions on iran has prompted threats from teheran to close this strategic waterway in today's washington will end all the waivers granted to eight countries including the likes of china and india that import iranian oil the u.s. government says it's part of its maximum pressure campaign to stop iran from destabilizing the region so how iran's top general has responded he said we don't want to close the strait of hormuz but if the hostility of enemies increases we will be able to do so also if our oil does not go through the strait other
2:23 am
countries oil will certainly not cross the strait either. so let's have a look at the significance of the strait in some detail because while iran presents itself as a gatekeeper if you like there are a lot more players involved the strait of hormuz is the only sea route in and out of the gulf that tells you immediately why it is so important and if we zoom in down there and actually place a a ruler over the top of it using the tip of the united arab emirates as a starting point you'll see that in any direction it's certainly nothing more than one hundred kilometers before you hit land be at the iranian mainland there or one of these islands over here now in this case fifty six kilometers of water sounds like a decent amount of space but the actual shipping lanes are only three kilometers wide in each direction and it was in the first half of twenty eighteen in fact that seventeen point four million barrels of oil a day went through those lanes around a fifth of the world's oil consumption coming from places like iran obviously but up here in iraq and in kuwait as well further down you've got cutter of course
2:24 am
which is the largest exporter of l.n.g. liquefied natural gas in the world it's exporters have to go through the straits as well you go down into the united arab emirates into dubai and here you've got general alley the largest port in the middle east which handles up to nineteen and a half million shipping containers a year they all go through the strait of hormuz and don't forget as well if we come further west again based here in bahrain in this little bay here you've got the u.s. fifth fleet america's naval presence in the gulf which can be deployed in the case of any heightened tensions. so let's introduce our panel today starting in tehran with mohamed islamiyah who is a political research or and columnist in london minissha tacky and independent oil and energy consultant and on skype from lancaster in the u.k. it is simon mobile and senior lecturer in international studies at and i guess
2:25 am
a university gentleman thank you time welcome to inside story mohammed islam i'm going to start with you and tell her. and i do want to start out by pointing out that this is not a new threat iran has made the threat before most notably i think it was two thousand and eight and two thousand and twelve as well in your view what is different this time what makes it more crucial more important or as i said at the start of the show the stakes being higher look at first i want to mention there it is not only in political words it is also an experience for iran because the iranian government has the experience of putting some restriction on controlling to a certain form is doing to iran iraq war in one thousand nine hundred s. so this time by as the as a consequence is of u.s. policy and quitting. iranian government is thinking about this decision as a means of. i mean. i think sending
2:26 am
the message to it it to do now to states that this is this time it would be really different for rangers but it's a provocative move in it and a retaliatory move as well i wonder about what it really achieves other than showing iran's strength and iran's importance in the region what does it really achieve no one no one really wins out of it not in the region they don't. ok you know it would not be for sure it would not be the first step by the iranian government it would be the second step step after. step by the united states if the united states could not achieve their goal through. put iranian export through zero day rain and would not close the door close the gateway but if they are really serious and putting restrictions on iranian export
2:27 am
it would be the next step the second a step four innings so the u.n. is not want to close the gate. some and move on let's bring you into the conversation now first of all your thoughts on whether this actually could happen this time as we've discussed already it's happened before it's been threatened in more recent history this time around look i think that if we look over over history recent history and less recent history we know that iran does this when it feels like it's being backed into a corner when it feels like it has very little other alternatives as a means of articulating its position and as a show of strength so given that and looking at history it seems unlikely that iran would do that this time but of course we can never say never we've got an increasingly billet you into an increasingly and to raney and president in the white house and that has had an impact i think it has pushed iran to the margins it has pushed iran from from the center of regional politics and it's created
2:28 am
a sort of isolationist sentiment so things have changed the context has changed but i think that the outcome of whether iran will close the straits i can't see it happening to be honest but that doesn't rule it out just on a. sort of a mechanic side of things and maybe i might have to ask one of our other guests as well but have we we keep using this phrase iran would close the strait of hormuz how do you close the strait of hormuz out here. that. there's a number of different ways and and i think it depends on how seriously the iranians wanted to close it and the most obvious is perhaps mining the strait putting putting seaborne mines that would obviously have a pretty damaging impact if any of the large freighters were to were to hit it less obvious perhaps would be to have boats patrolling the straits potentially shooting and shooting some type of torpedo or weaponry at these freighters if iran was
2:29 am
serious about closing or now there's a deterrent dimension i guess to to any closure efforts the language is a deterrent but then if iran was to actually go ahead and close it you have different different type policies of closure i guess depending on how serious around wasn't depending on what iran wanted to achieve from disclosure just before i bring in minish attack in just stay there for a minute i just want to ask mohamed in tehran quickly your thoughts quickly on on how you think iran would actually enact this if it did you know for iran it is not required to close all the gateway as a mentioned when we see the experience of iran during to your honor why are they didn't close the all this rate of hormuz first they put some restrictions for the tankers to carquest this trade so i don't think that iran would have any plan to close the gateway you know moments ago because you know after all iran would
2:30 am
think about their plan to reopen the strait so. if they iran would be in a point to really put recession under spray to foremost to davao not to close it at in a moment's. when we should talk in london as our oil expert let's bring him in this is central obviously the effect on the oil markets. already there are a number of countries who will stop receiving iranian oil the united states says it will be fine will keep the market supplied they'll be no gap do you agree with that or is it just that almost the symbolic nature of something like this potentially happening which is enough to spook the markets. well the united states is playing the willy is this pseudo only superpower in the world so it can say and do at least things present from what he can do he says whatever but in practice iranian oil exports have not seen as in the past in two thousand and eight and twelve and
2:31 am
so on prison ahmadinejad at that time there were sanctions by the europeans and the united nations as well as the united states and iran managed to export its oil about a million a million and a half for a ways and means so it would be the same thing this time plus the fact that the europeans have not put sanctions on iran mind you with their oil companies you are going to oil companies again because of this strong arm twisting by you know at the states there are a reader free to purchase iranian oil although their governments told and european government tell them go ahead and do but they are afraid because united states might put. pressure on them or would not allow him to stop their operations in the united states and so on and it's really not going to fix the one i wanted isn't that a deal but i don't think it will sort of yes go ahead as it was yet isn't that the differences and that the u.s.
2:32 am
is undeniably putting more pressure on on the oil markets on the oil exports and sort of does that there's a threat in the background as well that oh well we'll see what happens here and we might have to do more and who knows what more is after that but really it is this is a political question that the world and the european union which is telling its oil companies go ahead and do not listen to the united states threaten threats because you are doing illegal trade buying oil from iran but they are afraid of doing it it depends on how far this political pressure from the u.s. and there is distance in europe would go and then we should also be realistic that . other countries india china and others who do import iranian oil south korea are very much and they would observe the united states pressure much more lenient deal more quickly and but one would think that maybe china and india and others
2:33 am
might resist and their existence would depend on other trades that they are having with iran and the negotiations that they have all the time now in the united states and chinese international trade negotiation they might use it on as a point given take so be all given that this is all political question on that and i'm no expert on politics but i think that these countries will come out of their way as they are doing behind the scenes diplomatically and protesting they are protesting to the united states to india and that look we have these refineries the we need oil and we have had our refineries designed for iranian crude in madras refinery here and there for decades now you want us to change it will be costly for us etc etc it is that political pressure that they would stand against a us many germans on this issue which i'm no expert but i think they will go out and start protesting and may want to listen just condi and might be the chinese on
2:34 am
one side as well. and that is the you know president trump wants to have the price of oil to be cheap yeah because the petrol and gasoline in the united states the beach is sort of that is he would be remain popular yet of course if the price goes up internationally there in the midst of prices would also go up it is his doing he says that i'm telling opec to produce more and i'm not sure that in spite of the strong arm and the good relations between saudi bia and the united states there saudi arabia would close and in a distant images that you see in the you know i'm going to jump in martin i'd jump in because i want to. and simon at the three way as you pointed out i mean you're our oil expert simon is our international relations expert maybe you can expand a bit more what men are saying that because they made a really good point that this goes well beyond the region all those countries are listed earlier on and kuwait and qatar and all of this it all those customers which
2:35 am
iran had how do you feel they will react when i stand up for iran would they insert themselves into this what is essentially a u.s. iran battle but i think what we've got to do is contextualize each and every one of these relationships so not only do we need to look at the relationship that iran has with india with russia with the with china with south korea etc but we also have to look at those relationships with the united states so india's relationship with the u.s. china's relationship etc and it's those relationships the nature of those relationships and the quality of them the strength of them if you will that will determine the extent to which those states will push back against any u.s. efforts to to try and create a a position visa via and so if there is some type of friction enough in that relationship say the the indian position modi's position with regard to the u.s.
2:36 am
isn't quite honest name page of trump that it could well be that india pushes back and said no we will not do this we want to we want to continue with our infrastructural developments built around a radiant oil and we don't want to be pushed around by the west and that's the same with all the other holy of the states that iran is trading with they all have their own relationships not only with iran but with the u.s. and other states as well so we need to look at this need to contextualize each of these relationships and by doing that with better able to see the extent to which those states might push back against the u.s. because it's really complex isn't it i want to bring things back to iran a little bit let's do this with mohammed in teheran i want to get if. we'll from you of the iranian people what they think about all of this because we characterize it as a battle between two governments but in the end it would be the iranian people who would feel the effects now let's play this out here let's say that iran takes some sort of action it retaliates it closes the straits of hormuz tell us about the
2:37 am
effect on iran the iranian people the iranian economy ok first of all let me say something else for iranian minds it's closing to sort of hormones it is not an instrument in terms of economy or whole theory it is a reaction to a kind of community of where it's by some powers in the region electing to b.b. i mean do you really think it's in your home in israel and. amount of support from donald trump for netanyahu and also some signs in saudi arabia iranian government. talking about closing this sort of hormones may be a response to some serious of targeting iran attacking iran. by by some people by some garment into a region with the support of the united states so for the iranian people it's also
2:38 am
the same you know that we're not in states garments put his name and a list of terrorist groups also like this but at the same time we saw a lot of the iranian oppositions i mean political to the governments they were supporting i.r.g.c. it was really interesting that lots of them some of them also some of the are even now in the jane but they have tweeted in support of i.r.g.c. and they said that this is a national army and united states cannot put in national army in elease the scopes on for lack of so i think if the americans change the situation in a way that the iranian government would practically think about closing the gateway it will have the support from the iranian people because trump showed to data it is not also only true change of garments. also miss
2:39 am
a pompous secretary of state often and say said that sanctions would have negative effects on the a life of ordinary people it means that we are putting sanctions also on the iranian people all the people the whole concern in the situation they were any and you have concerns about any confrontation the potential for confrontation regardless of what action iran takes you made a very good point that the i.r.g.c. the iranian revolutionary guard has been designated a terrorist organization by the united states as i pointed out you've got the fifth fleet there as well it seems that there is you know there's almost a platform there for there to be problems in the gulf itself in the in the waters of the gulf. yeah you know by a by the means of as a consequence of this decision their risk of some kind of military confrontation is now hard and it is because of the u.s. decision so yes it is real practical fracture if you put
2:40 am
the army off the one which is controlling to sort of form as you can i should i should mention that the assert our foremost is under the control of our g.c. navy not did not a national army so. any confrontation between do as possible. military persons and. persons would be. a competition between two groups that or it is ignited as a terrorist group by all due to governments because you know that the iranian parliament also puts. american. officers here in the persian gulf as the tourist will come when we should talk and let's bring your economic mind back into this a lot of what we are discussing is all in hypotheticals of what could happen if the strait of hormuz was closed when iranian oil exports are banned completely but take
2:41 am
me through the process of what you think could happen the effect on as i was asking mohamed the iranian economy but the gulf region as well which could be paralyzed by the straits being close and then the wider global oil markets as well. well the global oligarch at the musing your own terminology will become. in there when we fall into a disarray as you mention the order of magnitude seven hundred eighteen million barrels per day or oil going into the international supply chain suddenly stopping and disappearing out of the hundred million or ninety million barrels per day oil or out as more important out of a sixty five million barrels per day traded or oil that is very significant nothing can replace it i've been waiting to hear and that is talk about the pipelines crossing across saudi arabia pipelines in the united arab emirates which go and bypass the strait of hormuz but there will be as for example maybe one and one
2:42 am
point four one point three million barrels per day for in one case in saudi arabia going to yen would generate seaports are something like four and a half million barrels per day the capacity as in probably day what is available maybe have a stream be done by respect it and the iraq pipeline going through turkey is not operational in mexico would be four hundred thousand barrels per day so there is in fact no other way to get this or doubt and it is not replaceable the price the horde would shoot in the sky honestly it is not a thing that going can talk about it ok some oil sellers oil companies individuals and so on might profit on the short ten races but i think the whole economy in the old there's the threat of collapse there is for example in the international energy agency and they agency of the industrialized world they have a system in place for emergency rationing in case of destructions like this but
2:43 am
that is limited and the plant emergency plan distribution and so on it is only for the industrial company in japan australia and europe and united states and canada and a kennedy priest say about ten twelve million barrels per day for about. a month and then out of the strategic reserves out of the commercial visitors and then in the second month program the third month will be a fire in within six months there are strategic reserves can only give about one million two million barrels per day of oil to the is industrialized countries whereas you have the rest of the world outside is this here of the far east door you see the countries where the nicest all the developing countries asia latin america and africa and so on india there would be hungry for all you know and there it is just unthinkable i can't really think of how it is we just shouldn't happen it can happen ok and you've led nicely to my final point as i just starting to run down the clock it strikes me that the three of you the four of us effectively have
2:44 am
mapped it all out and presumably people in much higher positions than us of map this out to and yet we still seem to be stumbling towards some sort of confrontation or escalation simon live on what is the best way out of a situation like that given the us really doesn't want to play ball doesn't want to negotiate what in your opinion is the way out diplomacy but then again i would say that being a director of a peace institute diplomacy seems to be the only way out of the types of issues but but this is what is happening this what we're seeing with this current crisis is a consequence of diplomatic channels being shut down and and all avenues for diplomatic dialogue and dialogue generally being shot down in the us with regard to iran and as a consequence it's back to run into a position where it's it seems own able to actually facilitate any type of other movements than to a result of this type of defensive posturing now i don't think it will happen i
2:45 am
think the state the stakes are too high for everyone involved and there will be some type of created diplomatic solution perhaps the omanis might do some type of mediator reroll or something like now. but this is what happens when you start to put the squeeze on the state and you start to attack the institutions of the state by prescribing them terrorist entities and it really is a worrying situation when diplomatic avenues have been squeezed at this point and it creates a climate a climate where any kind of situation any type of action for an old matter of different actors could provoke something whether this is a desire consequence or not such heightened tensions mean good actions can be misconstrued means that certain things can be can become compostable elements stakes are incredibly high and it's been really interesting talking to the three of you about it mohamed
2:46 am
a family manisha thakor in and simon made on thank you for joining us and thank you as well for watching plenty more for you online this episode all our other things are out of the red dot com in the show section we're on facebook at facebook dot com face a.j. inside story twitter is at a.j. inside story i'm come on a.j. if you want to tweet me directly thanks for joining us on canal santa maria and we will hold on to.
2:47 am
a university degree to be a doctor or
2:48 am
a teacher but without any study or exam one hundred one east investigates the pakistani company at legibly selling fake degrees to the police around the world on al-jazeera. where. this is al-jazeera. hello i'm daryn jordan this is the out as they were news hour live from doha coming up in the next sixty minutes talks resume between sudan's military and opposition groups of a transition to civilian rule. college there in london with the latest from europe including spain's socialist party begins talks to form
2:49 am
a new government a day off the following short of majority in the election. pushing for peace afghanistan's president hosts a rare meeting of leaders to discuss ongoing efforts for talks with the taliban and as for the defending n.b.a. champion stan course to win a third straight title the golden state warriors edging the houston rockets in game one of their second round series. welcome to the program talks between sort of these opposition groups on the military have wrapped up on monday was no firm agreement on how to move forward on saturday night the two sides announced the formation of a joint council but no further details have been agreed upon just yet it's expected that once formed the joint council will leave the country until national elections are held while sudan's military council spokesman says discussions. going well.
2:50 am
we're very close to reaching an overall solution that will make everybody happy. to get the country out of this crisis we're still in negotiations to define pows and specialized roles so they can act as a base for us to define the different levels of representation in the government so he we heard from the spokesperson of the sort of me's military council that we have to say. ah my words are and what we know is that the military council and the opposition coalition did sit down today but they were not able to reach a complete deal on how the transitional government should look like they have already agreed on a military civilian transitional government but they both disagreed on how much a presentation each side should have the military council said that it wanted seven military representations or seven seats for the military and three for the civilians now the opposition coalition has always been insisting on a civilian government with military representation so they wanted eight seats for the civilians and seven for the military but today we heard from the spokesman of the military council she had been saying that when they started their meeting this
2:51 am
morning they met the opposition coalition presented and new and new plan that they wanted to see for the transition for the transitional period that they tend to as the constitution the constitutional declaration and that it should be the one that would decide the relationship between the military council and the transitional government so a lot of things still to be discussed a lot of differences still to be ironed out they know they're not any closer to finding a transitional government then they were yesterday or on saturday but they said but they seem to be both optimistic and we did hear from the from the what you call a few minutes ago we spoke to some of them and they're saying that they will continue to negotiate they will sit back and talk to the members of their coalition try to come up with a solid high idea if i plan just like the military council said that they will be going back for more consultations and be convening tomorrow for more talks between the two sides so he but where does this leave the protest movement on the protesters because many of them a come talk saw the army headquarters where you are. well yes there and you can see
2:52 am
them behind me they're saying that they're going to sit here and front of the army headquarters this is now the fourth week where they've been here and they're saying that they will not leave and still be here from the opposition coalition that a civilian independent transitional government has been harmed they've been rejecting the idea that the military will have any representation at all but it largely depends on the coalition and how they can convince the people who are here in front of the sit in for the past four weeks because people have been listening to the coalition specifically the sudanese professional association the body that has been spearheading that lots of protests for the past four months so people have been arriving from different parts of the country from various states over the past few days saying that they're coming to reinforce the people who are already here and they would be waiting for the announcement that is to believe independent transitional government would be formed if there's thing that until that happens they will be staying here and they will not be leaving on returning home to have a mortgage in khartoum heba thank you. now political wrangling has begun in spain where the socialist party now has the task of trying to form
2:53 am
a new government without a majority has crossed it from the europe a new center for more than a state of the two you. but you are and yes on sunday the policy of prime minister pedro sanchez won the most seats in parliament but not enough to govern alone building any sort of coalition may take weeks of discussions and could still end in deadlock and adding to the uncertainty for the first time since the end of spain's military dictatorship a far right party has entered parliament so no go to go has more from madrid. a new day for spanish politics but no certainty over what kind of government will come out of sunday's election spaniards may have turned out in force to vote in one of the most divisive elections but it was the socialists who came out on top but i mean i think it's a good result and honestly i didn't expected i thought the right wing was going to win we're going to i think the result will be almost have a stable majority was here and this can be good. all eyes are now on which direction the socialist leader pether sancerre will take so far they have said they
2:54 am
would attempt to form a minority government but it's still early days so what happens next well for a start there are further elections to contest local ones in this country and the european elections that are sanches might be playing his cards close to his chest he wants to try to win the games there. there is the option of going into a coalition a guaranteed majority could be made by partnering with the center right citizens party but it is an unpopular option for the socialists and their followers joining with a hard left put their most would avoid that scenario but then they would need to make deals with cattle an independent test another unpopular choice it's really awkward this problematic for them they have to do a lot of the nation to the to their followers to their members the fact of they are that they are negotiating with the caseloads so they will try they will try to avoid violence the socialists may have some time but no one is expecting
2:55 am
a quick result from this historic election but it's unclear whether the governing party can overcome the difficulties spain has had problems with coalitions in the past and it's unclear whether the governing party can overcome the difficulties to create a stable and effective government. you're live in madrid so now that the far right party is also in parliament was full of influence could be how do you think. well felicity you could say that folks have been the disrupters in this whole campaign in the race. although they really have a power out twenty four seats out of three hundred fifty in the congress that's the lower house of parliament the amount of fractiousness that they've caused among the rice wing spectrum of of the political scene here has been incredible considering for example first what they have done to the traditional right wing parts of the
2:56 am
people's party that is the p.p.p. they were absolutely decimated in sunday's election there they had the worst results ever in their own history so now they're going to have to do a lot of reflection and perhaps consider which direction they're going to go in so the they were hemorrhaging votes towards the whole center right citizens party as well they picked up quite a few more seats making them indeed quite a strong contender with that perhaps go into coalition with the socialists but really looking out for a lot of people cops are saying that ok they've got twenty four seats there's only so much they can do what they can do is divert and disrupt certain debates in this country and certainly their supporters here who had gathered last night seem very happy with the result they expect a little bit more but certainly they've got that presence in the parliament and they're perhaps now voting on which direction they're going to do next and still continue on with their rhetoric of national unity that's what got them in there in
2:57 am
the first place let's see how far it takes now felicity in madrid thank you. for the future of spain semi autonomous castle on reaching was one of the big issues of the selection but probably separatist parties gain just forty percent of the votes there showing deep divisions over independence still remain should a whole has moved from buffalo. if you are still light on the faces of pro independence supporters in barcelona on sunday night the surge of the far right box party contained and spain socialists possibly needing to look here for help in forming a government in fact the socialist party did rather well in catalonia its support drawn from workers who moved to the region in the sixty's and seventy's living in suburban pockets known as the red belt around barcelona they are part of an older generation of leftwing resistance during the franco era who don't believe that nationalism is the answer to anything in modern day spain get their beer from that
2:58 am
that's not bad but rather about whether it's a backwards moral thing for all workers creating barriers for business and for us it's always the workers will suffer and most business will just go elsewhere yeah but it might co-operation between the socialists and moderate separatists at the national level helped bridge divides in catalonia is. why there was a lot within that i don't know what are the if none of them are in their positions then they can reach agreement then we can live together just like we always have at respecting one another in line with the law and the constitution. after the events of october two thousand and seventeen the unilateral referendum and declaration of independence forcefully suppressed by the right wing government in madrid it's easy to forget that catalonia is politically multifaceted clearly there's no question of
2:59 am
the independence parties renouncing the goal of independence but is there at least a chance now with better relations with madrid yeah like we're likely to move towards this you know you are no solutions can be yet because the positions are still too far apart to find common ground for an agreement we're still there's dail of chemical recission that is to play with hopefully bring about a common understanding. the question is the solution long dialogue that of course there hasn't been for some time exactly and a day like that has been broken for a long time and that has made the situation way worse than it was when. there is of course the still potentially explosive issue of jailed pro independence leaders twelve of them on trial in madrid charged with rebellion and sedition their fate could yet reignite separatist passions but for a majority of voters here and across spain there is reason to be happy with the result not quite the victory for the far right that many had feared and spain
3:00 am
remains a beacon of social democracy in europe and here in catalonia at least the possibility of cooperation over confrontation i don't know how al-jazeera barcelona. fans will have more in this hour right now this go back to doha. thanks to the state now plenty more ahead on the news hour including i saw media release a video that appears to show its leader. resistance to change the lanka's police chief refuses to step down. and support the team that's back in the big time of european football after a fifty seven year wait and you'll be here with that story in the sport a bit later. i saw his official media has released a video that appears to show its leader abu bakar al baghdadi if confirmed it would be the first public appearance by the leader since twenty fourteen he talks about the battle of baghdad was in syria would.

171 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on