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tv   Counting the Cost 2019 Ep 28  Al Jazeera  July 16, 2019 8:33am-9:01am +03

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it's a national male and female school board log arena big. al-jazeera the unifying cultural. i don't wait i'll just call the. pentagon wrestling with reality on al-jazeera. a lot has this is counting the cost on al-jazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week 3 decades after the collapse of the soviet union putin's russia is in gauging with africa to increase more than its political clout . missile systems that could still open turkey's economy we look at the economics behind the s. 400 and the f. 35 stealth bomber. and as google prepares to launch its challenger in the games
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industry we find out if it could be game over for the likes of sony and microsoft. so as the soviet union imploded it turned its back on the african continent in the 1990 s. but now under president putin russia is making a push to engage the reason is simple western sanctions the pivot to china hasn't been a huge success and hopes of billions of dollars in investment from the middle east haven't arrived in the quantities expected plus african votes count in the united nations. russia's trade with africa rose 26 percent to $17400000000.00 in 2017 moscow doesn't have the financial power of beijing just in 2017 trade with africa amounted to 170000000000 dollars the u.s. is of course worried its trade with subsaharan africa was $39000000000.00 in 2017 and this is what russia is doing in africa it has oil and gas deals with algeria
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egypt ghana nigeria and mozambique it has nuclear deals in place with rwanda zambia and south africa although that is in limbo while it is a big supplier of arms to egypt algeria sudan and angola moscow is increasing support across the continent that's not a comprehensive list by any means but let's get more on russia's interest in africa now joining me from london is charles robinson chief global economist and head of macro strachey at russian investment bank when they saw capital thanks very much for being with us so let me ask you 1st of all then how is russia's relationship with africa changing under putin and what's the most important aspect of it is a political economic or military influence. well i think there's a little bit of all 3 but you take the 1st 510 years and of putin's rule in russia
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very little focus on africa very little interest what seems to have shifted is with the sanctions getting imposed by the u.s. and the e.u. in 201415 we've then seen russia decide that it needs to build links around the world to china to india the gulf and we're seeing that with the saudis and and now to africa to. and does russia doesn't have the financial firepower china doesn't care can it really compete i mean is this is this a competition or does he just need friends for votes in the united nations i think it's about finding any export opportunity that they can they're not 100 percent sure how relations are going to pan out with the u.s. or with the e.u. over the next 5 to 10 years and so what we've seen is a concerted effort by putin to bring in the indian prime minister the japanese prime minister the chinese leadership and now african leaders to to to diversify
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the russian trade export routes and africa's boom in the last few years for russia exports to africa which just one percent a few years ago they're now running a 4 percent and i think that's caught the russians attention and how do you think china europe and united states are seeing this russian comeback. i was in congo last week and the russians are heavily involved in central african republic which is the country just to the north just over the border and i think that's it to agree of suspicion about that but so far you know puff of these isolated incidents in just one of 2 countries most of russia's in gauge with africa's being north africa so nearly 80 percent of all trade the russia does all exports go to egypt tunisia algeria this is so so the russians are trying to to spread some. i think the west is much more concerned by china at the moment and their engagement and that they're only beginning to pay attention to what russia
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might be doing and putin is hosting this russian african summit in sochi next october what can we expect there. i think a lot of a lot of leaders will turn up. they are also conscious the russia might have something that they need so one in 7 of russian exports to africa arms and weapons and just getting security continues to be a big issue and you see that in the central african republic you see that in somalia and other countries south sudan security remains an issue for for some countries in the continent and russia's got the experience in dealing with difficult climates of running railway lines around the world infrastructure electricity education a lot of africans used to get educated in russia in soviet times and they're coming back now in the last 5 to 10 years because because russian population is shrinking the number of young people is down by about 40 percent in russia so the
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universities are empty how do you fill those spaces get african students to come in and that's exactly what's happened the numbers have doubled in the last 10 years and what about african markets what can they offer russian investors mining oil gas that sort of thing there you've already got rosneft the oil giant which is a gas john which is which is operating in north just off the egyptian shore in the off shore gas fields there you've got gas from are afraid to go to resell which is building mines in guinea and a neural cam that fertilizer company is is seeing great opportunities in places like zambia and zimbabwe and thinks that it can can help the agricultural revolution africa is going to need to to develop so there's this opportunity for a whole host of russian businesses in the continent but russia's economy isn't doing too well the moment is it i mean 0.5 percent. growth in the 1st quarter what
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can we expect going forward do you think that the thing that the problem russia's got which many people don't focus on enough is the population shrinking there were . king age population shrinking so it's been dropping by about one percent a year so when russia's be getting about 2 percent growth a year that's 3 percent per person that's actually better than most countries and russia's could compare it to oil exporters like canada or norway in developed markets or colombia all cats or saudi in emerging markets russia's done better in the last 3 years. than its peers but it does get kept you not going to get growth much above 2 to 3 percent when your population shrinking and this year they've also done tax hikes and that's why we've seen the slowdown early this year they're determined to keep the budget balanced to try and keep themselves secure against potential sanctions risk from the west and just finally i want to ask you about the opec meetings this week why is russia signed up to extending all
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production cuts i mean remarkably it doesn't it doesn't need higher oil prices and it's built up this $100000000000.00 rainy day fund yet they they tend need it but obviously they benefit when when the oil prices higher and i think they're trying to play the long game so to putin's point a month ago was very much that based on the way they are calculated in russia russia can get oil out more cheaply than saudi arabia or assess not quite right the budget balances at a lower oil price in russia than it does and saudi so the russians are playing a long game and they're happy to cooperate with the saudis. to try and ensure that oil prices don't do that terrible plunge down to the thirty's that would require big shifts in russian policymaking again good to speak you charles robertson thank you thank you. now the prospect of further u.s. sanctions on turkey over decision to buy russia's s.
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$400.00 missile technology had been delayed for now president trump blamed the obama in ministration for the impossible in turkey had been treated unfairly by not being allowed to buy patriot missiles. the president was not allowed to buy the video just so when it was the other one was the s 200 to 400 when it was them. who wanted to do this but he wasn't allowed tell you about it we fish in the boat and tell everybody the other by a little missiles so close the other missile a little of the solicitor when you could now by yourself you know to get to this is that turkey has been a a friend of ours and. we do great things together it would be very important we're going to be much bigger i think the $75000000000.00 is small i think it's going to be well over $100000000000.00 well turkey stood to be tipped back into recession just months after escaping the last one if sanctions were imposed turkey agreed to
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by the s $400.00 missile batteries for $2500000000.00 from russia washington is unhappy that at least 13 nations are interested or are buying the missile defense system including india vietnam and egypt but delivery of its 1st 4 f. $35.00 warplanes has been delayed over concerns its security may be compromised by the s. $400.00 missile each plane is worth about $85000000.00 and turkey has ordered $100.00 f. $35.00 ankara has invested more than $1250000000.00 in the f. $35.00 program since 2002 more the $900.00 turkish companies stood to lose participation in the building of the f. $35.00 over the lifetime of the plane they stood to make $12000000000.00 we're joining me now via skype from istanbul to talk more about this is c.n.n. and he is the chairman of the istanbul based center for economic some foreign
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policy studies and a visiting scholar at carnegie europe in brussels thanks very much for being with us now despite president trump's comments at the g. 20 word from the pentagon and washington is that nothing has changed and that these sanctions will go ahead if turkey takes delivery of the s 400 what do you make of that. well after the meeting between the turkish president are gone and i was president trump in all sucka there was an air of optimism erkki an expectation that the u.s. president could use his presidential prerogatives to either block or suspend potential sanctions against turkey but obviously we also know that the different pillars of the universe administration and also congress is very much in intent on imposing those sanctions but to be seen to what extent trump
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can actually deliver on this promise made to the turkish president at the margin of the g 20 summit to actually prevent or block these potential sanctions and is it true that trumps predecessor president obama denied access to patriot missiles well what's behind that decision well it's let's say it's a half truth in the sense that yes those patriots were not delivered to turkey but that we did because there was a disagreement about the conditions of their didn't agree so it was busy not a categorical rejection but turkey wanted that purchase to be accompanied by a degree of technology transfer and that's not what the u.s. was prepared to accept under the obama administration and therefore deal went through didn't go through and what would happen then if turkey decides not to take
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delivery of the s 400 what would be the consequences. well i mean now the turkish government has iterated so many times that the s 400 that turkey was intent on the purchase of this 400 there would be difficult to explain to the turkish public opinion why at the last moment the government has decided to pull off for a different scenario but nonetheless i think that if there is a diplomatic solution to this problem. that would enable the turkish government to explain in a convincing manner to deter shortens why they have alternately made that decision that this would be the best way forward because it would then diffuse the political tension with the united states and still allow turkey to a choir this time around the patriots is what will be the impact on that for the russians then. well turkey will have to manage the relationship with moscow if
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turkey at the last moment decides not to acquired s. 400 here i think we should underline that a mosque or court would have 2 potential objectives associated with that sale the 1st one obviously is a financial one where turkey would still be committed to pay the amount agreed but secondly russia the problem we all saw or wants i weigh all over this sale to turkey to an escalation between turkey and united states which was also have an impact on nato and nato is cohesion so in that sense if turkey goes ahead and decides not to acquire this $400.00 then. at these turkey would probably need to compensate russia for the financial loss because of the leverage that russia has on turkey nowadays is about syria and particularly in the where
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turkey is afraid that. heavy handed intervention by the regime backed by russia could lead to a new way wolf refugees i'm from england so that's the leverage and for that turkey needs to be diplomatic about it and essentially compensate russia for any financial loss and if the u.s. were to go ahead with sanctions on turkey what could the input impact of that be. on turkey because this course not the 1st time the u.s. and turkey. have had difficult relations there was the whole episode with the u.s. pastor as well. yes indeed with last summer the threat of sanctions or cold or sanctions were not applied but even the threat of sanctions was enough to destabilize the turkish economy now if the. u.s.
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schools have had with the cuts a sanction. that is likely to have an impact on the turkish economy by raising turkey's risk perception is sold that redid the main economy impact but. the and that this will have also implications for thirty's defense in the streets it's going to make it more difficult for turkish companies to pull trade would be with their u.s. counterparts and 30 this will also have an impact on the f. $35.00 program whereby the u.s. has clearly stated that you yes $400.00 come to turkey the u.s. will stop the delivery of the f. $35.00 aircraft to turkey but also exclude british defense companies from the production line of of the f. 35 so there are many different aspects of or many of these full tracks
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of possible impact if the if the u.s. goes ahead with the cuts of sanctions against russia and if we look at the domestic political situation in turkey right now president of ones party recently lost the istanbul election the merrow election there what's the potential impact of that going to be on the 2 ends approach to to running the economy in turkey. well i mean short term little in the sense that this was a dental they are local elections so it does not really impact at the overall national distribution of power in ankara and on continues to be the executive president of the country and therefore he will continue to dictates turkish policy but of course. being a stumble is a major setback and a lot of that is certainly due to the economy explored down that we have witnessed
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in the past couple of course orchardists in turkey so the direct impact of this will be for the government to refocus on the economy and try to create a reform agenda for a faster recovery very and but that will also be very much dependent on the it will not turkey's set of foreign policy goals and they're an escalation with the united states would certainly hinder this path towards ready faster recovery sinan organ good to talk to you thank you now x. box playstation and intended have dominated the video game industry for the last decade and more sunnies next generation console will be available around december 2020 and it's about to focus on hardcore gamers that decision shouldn't come as a surprise the big 3 have carved up
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a chunk of the $135000000000.00 industry for themselves by 2025 it could be worse $300000000000.00 and that is why some of tech's biggest players are about to introduce rival services alfabet the parent of google plans to launch its stadia platform in november this year stadia will be streamed from the cloud and does away with expensive consols apple will introduce its. arcadius and it's estimated that more than 2500000000 people play computer games every year and e-sports enjoy an audience of 458000000 a year so can google and apple make a dent in the games industry would joining me now from oxford england is really led inverter associate professor and senior research fellow at the oxford internet institute part of the university of oxford thanks so much for being with us so can google and apple change the gaming industry then well 1st of all i'd say that they
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already have once apple app store and google play store popularized mobile gaming and the microtones action and advertising revenue models for games. and today something close to half of all the revenues in the global games industry come from mobile gaming sites say that they already have revolutionized the games industry once and now as for google stadia and apple arcade i'd say that it appears to me that apple arcade is. a more of a sort of compliment to their existing offerings a subscription service perhaps for parents who are concerned about letting their kids in a marketplace with microfinance actions where they might end up spending too much money or for professionals who want to just play some games every month without spending too much time browsing the marketplace. whereas google stadia appears to
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be a much more ambitious effort something that is called platform and delahunt which means that they are. appeared to be attempting to become the customer interface to become the platform between the buyers and developers of games and relegate the hardware manufacturers to the role of pipes essential infrastructure which is what google has been thus far so they're trying to envelop . the existing platforms and become a platform of their own and what about sony it's aiming its next console of hardcore gamers and he sees itself as a niche player what do you make of that strategy well i think that niche is probably still very viable because if you think about the 1st revolution that i
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refer to mobile gaming. those are the mobile games market is now half of the games industry but the rest of the games industry is still there didn't go anywhere so it's the total size of the market grew so it's very possible that there is still a need for those hard for hardcore gamers who value cutting edge graphics hardware and so on because one of the problems for something like google stadia cloud gaming system is is the lag lag between controller inputs and visual feedback on the screen google state is by no means the 1st club gaming start up even sony has playstation now which is a cloud based system but the problem with those services has been that the lag between the controller and the visual feedback has been a little bit distracting has been too high because it takes time for the signal to
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propagate to the data center and back now google thinks that because they have lots of data centers around the world that they're able to cut this lag to an acceptable amount but i think that what may happen is. is that there's still going to be a need for those gamers who really want to play hardcore 1st version shooter games or is sports where the lag is having a small lag is extremely important and they will want to have cutting edge hardware locally of their homes and perhaps perhaps sony's targeting that nation and game makers would like to to sell their games across all platforms i mean that makes sense doesn't it yes although it can be helpful for a game maker to get more attention to stand out in the marketplace if they get that extra marketing push from a platform with a home they have an exclusive launch deal with and what technologies then should we be looking out for how will they change the industry to think. well in terms of
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technology new technology is changing the industry there's of course a lot of talk about v. r. and now google status cloud gaming and it remains to be seen whether they can solve the problem of lag in cloud and me but i would actually highlight 2 technologies on the production side under the under the hood. so one is motion capture is becoming cheaper to capture 3 d. motions from actors and transfer those onto. 3 to characters and the other is a character animation so animating characters in partly automated fashion and that's making the production side of games cheaper potentially allowing it reducing then trade barriers increasing competition allowing higher quality games to be produced a lower cost really large and better thanks for being with us thank you very much and that is our show for this week remember you can get in touch with us by
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tweeting me x. has him see can and do use the hash tag a.g.c. to see when you do drop us an email counting the cost dot net is our address and as always there's more few online at c.n.n. dot com slash c t c that will take you straight to a page which has individual course links and entire episodes for you to catch up on . so that is it for this edition of counting the cost and as i'm speaking from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera is next. discover new developments in surgery i'm going to jump up and whatever in hiroshima japan to meet the surgeon pioneering new techniques in regenerating on and could a breakthrough medical trial provide some much needed on choose to cystic fibrosis sufferers based on all the evidence behind the virus at least a 105 more effective. the cure revisited on
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