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tv   The Cure Revisited 2018 Ep 6  Al Jazeera  August 6, 2019 1:32am-2:01am +03

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there's been an hibernation but us trade war starts damage global growth central banks begin cutting interest rates and the prospect of conflict is an ever present threat the precious metal is trading near a 6 year high and it's never really gone out of fashion with central banks jewelers and some of the world's biggest investors so what's going on well let's start with that record high in 2011 gold prices hit almost 1900 dollars an ounce after the financial crisis although it slid to almost $1000.00 in 2016 now for the last 6 years it's been struggling to rise above $1350.00 an ounce but in the last month it made it to $1446.00 and could push higher the biggest holders of gold essential banks last year they increased the volume of their holdings to the highest level since the end of the gold standard nearly half a century ago the united states has by far the biggest stockpile with an estimated
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$350000000.00 but russia's holdings of quadrupled over the last decade the jewelry industry uses about 2000 tonnes of gold every year worth around $85000000000.00 but it's people in india that have believed to hold the most gold estimated to be worth around $1.00 trillion dollars so is that extra demand for gold or is this just investors seeking a safe haven to find out we're joined via skype by gavin wendt gavin is the founding director and senior resource analyst at sydney based mine life good to have you with us gavin so what's behind gold's recent rally well we've seen a number of fact is that conspire exactly the right time. dr gold are there in some more recent fact is. i guess related to things in the last week for example related to u.s. interest rate cuts. trade issues uncertainty with respect to britain and
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iran an ongoing economic council. that we can actually trace goals i guess. strong momentum. back to probably the g f c back in 2000 and night the tremendous amount of spending that went on in the wake of the g. 8 c. of around the world in terms of money printing by central banks and also they slashing interest rates to in some cases 0 levels or even negative levels in in the case of some of your pain countries and those factors have provided a very very strong macro picture to drive the gulp crossfire's so whilst we've seen a lot of action in the gold price over recent months and particularly now the last 6 months that the price is going to very very high levels this is
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a storm that's been building probably for about the last 10 to 12 years that sometimes these things take a while to develop. and with starting to see the you know the real upside in the go price now eventually this week's rate cut by the fed do you expect to see further cuts in the future what a rate cuts a rate rises mean for the price of gold right ketz a typically quite good positive full to gulp price outlook that is because right cuts typically to a weakening in the u.s. dollar and a weaker u.s. dollar typically results in a stronger gulp process and device. so what we've seen in the wake of the the u.s. interest rate cut was markets. looked at the fake commentary and they examined it and the fed was what they suggested in their common treatments that this was likely to be
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a one off right cut. they would likely to follow through with the right cuts and the market had been expecting that this would be just the 1st of a series of write cats throughout 2019 perhaps in calendar 2020. however what we've seen from the fed in the past is that they say one thing and they typically tend to do the to do the opposite and this is particularly been the case over the last 12 to 18 months if we go back to the same period in 2008 saying the fed was talking about likely right increases or at least keeping rates on hold. fast forward to around april the shia and there were a game saying that it was highly unlikely that it would be any sorts of right caps i couldn't see any right cats for the foreseeable future here we are in july august and they have they've cut rates so whilst they say that there is unlikely to be
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further right cats i think the economic circumstances in the united states will determine that they will be further right cuts certainly president trump would very much like to see right cuts and i think that's what we're going to be looking at so i think there's going to be further impetus to the process with with likely right cuts to come if not in the 2nd half of 2019 that i think pushing into 2020 or so given russia has been increasing its holdings what do you make of that russia in particular has been a very strong buyer of gold over recent years and so has china for that matter china has come out and actually said that it is buying more gold they came reason for central banks not only china and russia but other central banks around the world to tiptoe just gold is that wanting to diversify their foreign reserves out of the u.s. dollar there is a few in financial markets that the u.s.
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dollar is significantly i valued. and as a result of that central banks starting to buy gold inning creasing volumes and particularly if we're likely to say for their interest. caps then the direction of the u.s. dollar is going to be down i think if you look at the central banks around the world as a collective during 2018 which is the most recent data we have they bought about 576 tons of gold and that was the biggest annual purchase of gold by central banks since 2012 and what we're saying in terms of central bank purchases the shia led by russia is that $29.00 saying it's likely to outstrip purchases from last year so that the trend in terms of central bank buying is definitely upwards and just briefly given what's what's the target price for gold. well i've recently revised
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upward my target price at the start of calendar 2019 i was looking at a trading range goal to explain 12503050 perhaps but given the likelihood of further write cats i'm probably going against the grain here in terms of what market perception is doubting what the fed will do i think there are just so many positive factors out there driving gold the moment in terms of risk economic council see the value do a sham not get and the likelihood of right cuts that i've upgraded my price forecast for the next 12 months to between $34050.00 per ounce i think there's very strong upside and there's even the potential for gold to go higher perhaps challenge that $1500.00. i think there's
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a very strong confluence of events and i don't think there are any of those issues are going to be resolved any time soon kevin is pretty good to talk to you on counting the cost many thanks indeed for being with us my pleasure now years of war and instability have damaged iraq's gas and oil infrastructure leaving it dependent upon energy imports despite having huge reserves but iraq wants to change that with help from big overseas investment houses here as a summit in java reports from iraq. electricity is in high demand specially during the summer and power plants rely on gas most of it comes from fields like the basra gas field in the south and because it's associated gas with oil a single will provide support or oil and gas but iraq doesn't produce enough gas for its power stations a 3rd of what it needs is imported from iran. in the 1980 s. raining jets took out most of iraq's oil and gas infrastructure than the sanctions
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that followed saddam hussein's invasion of kuwait stalled any development now iraq's economy is weak the us is an important ally and both saudi arabia and iran are its neighbors iranian gas is a burden on baghdad stretched budget and a loaded issue for domestic and regional politics prime minister made he wants to make iraq energy independent his oil minister has already signed multibillion dollar deals with international companies such as honeywell eggs on and shell unfortunately because of the order were delayed and that's why really. and he was lagging behind. we are concentrating on this and the possible use to burn more 50 per cent 2 years to 3 years ago. 55. $45.00 i want to be realistic or to 5 years will be i would say there are big. and this of course will lead to
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many advantages one of course a while for power generation that will definitely make. energy independent who don't need to import and of course. you know. maintaining a gas field under $46.00 degrees is anything but easy but these iraqis are making sure that they continue to pump the gas which helps run their country besides the gas needed for electricity these gas fields also produce other types for domestic use and export 75 percent of the. l.p.g. . the facility which is more than 25 years old. is being renovated its electric instruments. to do these upgrades requires major investment rox government says despite obstacles like corruption and
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an unstable region investors are coming to back that. gas is their primary resource in the southern region especially to generate electricity most of the old power plants were motive from liquid fuel operations to cast power plants as there was an urgent need for investment and to upgrade production as tensions escalate between us and iran iraq wants to diffuse so it can attract more companies to help achieve baghdad becoming energy independent. these engineers are practicing how to respond to an emergency involving the hazardous h 2 s. gas. they work at the central processing facility of the mage known oil field in southern iraq what makes their operation unique is that after oil joined shell left iraqis took over and for the 1st time they were running oil and gas extraction on their own. after shell pulled out and 2018 bus for oil company took
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charge with the same standards and criteria bus company in cooperation with other consulting companies also proved that it has the ability to manage much oil field despite the challenges that we face one of those challenges a splitting from marshlands around the mage new and field this oil is below the nearly 5 metre high flood waters around the environmental risks mean new oil grid general will need to be elevated engineers say they have been able to reinforce dikes but one flooding could submerge their operation much new means crazy in arabic some say the name is in reference to the large amount of oil in one location the reserves of an estimated 38000000000 barrels this field produces 240000 barrels a day and that capacity is expected to go up to 450000 in 3 years the company says it's able to find investors even when the world is moving towards alternative energy sources there is no and the risk for investment in iraq iraq is very
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respectful of government. and the company. even with a shortage in financing and 201-425-2015 here are committed to. cost our budget within the. time when they invest when they buy and the cost back payment of timetabled 0 interest. of their main. for you. 45. the oil companies know that iraq is coming out of years of war the recent crisis in the gulf increases risk and baghdad needs investment sources within the oil ministry told our desire that some companies want to use that to their advantage brought names i don't want to mention names but. i am
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a firm believer in 11 the relationship that come up to blackmail us and we don't want to twist their arms they are our partner nuts and we want to have good relations but on the other hand we are monitoring their activities we are watching the costs will have managed to reduce their costs if you look now at the cost per barrel you see their tours hiking up by the time it was decreased iraq plans to expand its overall oil production to 5 and a half 1000000 barrels per day but as a member of the oil exporting countries of opec it has to reduce its oil output iraq's economy is hinged on oil and faces a tough balancing act the government has to generate much needed revenue while abiding by opec agreement that is our show for this week if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen you can tweet me i'm at a finnigan on twitter please use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of a dot net is our e-mail address as always there's plenty more for you online at
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al-jazeera dot com slash c.t.c. that takes you straight to our page and there you'll find individual reports links even entire episodes music catch up. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost i'm adrian figure for the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us the news on al-jazeera is next. america is divided like never before each side is so convinced that they are absolutely correct that the other side is dangerous as a wall and strict immigration policy people in power investigates the partisan
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politics eroding civil norms to american democracy are you concerned that the political divisions today could lead to violence. this strange death of american civility 2 on al-jazeera. a cease fire collapses syria blames turkey as it resumes military operations against rebels in the northwest. you're watching al-jazeera life from a headquarters and. also. egypt as a car which blew up in a crash in central cairo was carrying explosives to be used in an attack.
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governments remove special status for indian administered kashmir. being told the same. chaos on the streets of hong kong as police move in to break up protestors leading a general strike. follow the ceasefire in syria's rebel held province has collapsed regime forces are resuming the bombardment of the government is accusing rebel forces of violations it's also blaming turkey for not guaranteeing the truce the cease fire was agreed in kazakstan on thursday is that 100 near the turkish syrian border so is short lived ceasefire what more are you hearing about why it's collapse now. well like you mentioned collapse the airstrikes have resumed so far no reports of
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casualties it was announced late thursday friday night since then it has been quiet there have been no air strikes yes the warring parties shelled each other along the front lines but that cease fire was largely holding so in many ways this is a sudden announcement an unexpected announcement from the syrian military just a few hours ago saying that it is going to resume bombardment blaming specifically turkey saying that the proxy groups that support on the ground calling them armed terrorist groups are not complying with the cease fire so questions are raised why now especially in the syrian military statement they mention attacks on civilians without providing much details on when and where they happened and earlier today a pro syrian government website quoted a syrian military sources saying that the syrian army would give the rebels until august 16th after the end of the muslim holidays next week to comply with the
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conditions of the truce which leads really many to believe and some turkish sources telling us that this could be a direct message to turkey which is engaged in in talks with the united states in ankara at the moment they're discussing the future of the north east of syria a corner of syria which is really strategic and they're discussing the setting up a planned safe zone and what we understand is that there has been some progress in those negotiations a message from russia to turkey you cannot set up a new game in syria with the united states without our consent this is how some people are reading the sudden announcement from the syrian government of a ceasefire because at the end of the day we keep talking about the syrian government and the opposition but it is really russia the backer of the government turkey the backer of the opposition who are calling the shots and really a proxy war has been happening between these 2. countries in it live over recent months and as always it is often the civilians who suffer the most as a result of any collapse of ceasefire so what are you hearing about how the
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civilians there are coping and how this will be impacting them. while they're in just this morning a few 1000 people started to return to their homes the russian backed syrian government offensive which was launched in april displaced more than 400000 people according to the united nations people started to return to their homes hoping that they could celebrate the holidays next week but definitely people are going to be more concerned because what we saw over the past 3 months really is intense airstrikes relentless airstrikes targeting civilian neighborhoods we've seen children dangling from collapsed apartment buildings children trapped underneath the rubble lifeless bodies being pulled from underneath the rubble according to war monitors more than 800 civilians were killed and they have documented 216 names of children who were killed in that offensive so undoubtedly people are concerned but they will tell you from the beginning we had no faith in the syrian government or
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the russian government we know that they've deceived us in the past and they will continue to deceive us in the future so we're expecting more relentless bombing in the hours and days ahead if russia and turkey are not able to revive that cease fire rights as in a hoser thank you they were his defense department delegation is in turkey i was just saying for a last ditch effort to set up a safe zone in the north east of syria and the turkish president raja tell you berta one has said his country is running out of patience with the u.s. on sunday he announced troops would be sent to an area controlled by kurdish fighters the white b.g. has been an important u.s. ally in the battle against eisel but ankara sees a terrorist group barker has more from istanbul. turkish and u.s. military officials are locked in talks to try and revive hopes of creating a safe zone in northern syria but neither side can see eye to eye on how deep that
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safe zone should be who should be in control of it turkey wants complete control and whether or not the white p.g. the kurdish fighters based in the region should be forced completely from that part of syria why p.g. were close allies with the united states armed by the u.s. to and were heavily involved in the fight against eisel the white b.g. of youth here in turkey is a terrorist organization the turkish leadership growing levels of frustration when it comes to talks with the united states and in a sign of how frustrated the country is over the weekend president reminded the world to the turkey would be prepared to stage its own incursion east of the euphrates this would be the 3rd incursion into syria by turkey in the last few years but in addition to this standoff between the u.s. and turkey is the dispute over turkey's decision to buy the russian made s. 400 missile system seen as being not compatible with turkey's mende
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membership of the nato alliance in response the united states hit back by expelling turkey from the f. 35 stealth fighter program a number of turkish companies volved and manufacturing several 100 parts for this fighter we know that diplomatic channels are still open over that dispute but when it comes to the creation of the saves will either side give ground when it comes to forging forward with this plan. egypt has a car that blew up outside a major cancer hospital in cairo was carrying explosives to be used in a terrorist operation 20 people were killed in the blast on sunday night alexei o'brien reports i the aftermath of what initially appeared to be a car accident at egypt's government now believes was far more sinister than any one of the i was shocked and all cars behind me were on fire all the people at the
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back died do not let anyone tell you anything else everyone died mostly they were children. a speeding car collided with other vehicles outside a cancer hospital in cairo. the interior ministry says there were explosives in the camp to be used in a terrorist operation wow such as i have been below that there was a sound of an extremely loud blast it was no way 2 cars crashing the car must have been rigged with explosives it was to the extent where on the other side the apartments were shaking they were taking people out and the other people were melted together it was a strange situation dozens of people were killed or injured patients being treated at the cancer hospital had to be transferred because of damage to the building i almost couldn't put the parts of the ceiling of the hospital were collapsing and i went out of the room and people were running everywhere and shouting and people were collapsing. president. said his condolences to the victims adding that
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his government is determined to confront and eradicate what he calls brutal terrorism. his forces are already battling armed groups in the sinai peninsula and have been several attacks against civilians in egyptian cities in recent years last month british airways temporarily suspended flights to cairo citing security concerns the government doesn't believe that the hospital is the target it was more an issue of explosive materials and proper. you're and was detonated prematurely but it is of concern of course that this much explosive material was brought into the center and the scale of the explosion last year is the fact that. the bodies were documented and i'll suggest that it was a quite a substantial amount of explosives egypt's prosecutor general's ordered an investigation into what happened on sunday night but for now this kind of our street has become a crime scene and excedrin al jazeera there when secretary general is calling on
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india and pakistan to show urgent restraint over the crisis in indian administered kashmir new delhi has revoked special status through a presidential decree the region is under lock down with all communication lines suspended priyanka gupta has more was a sudden and momentous decision. india's government says it's to vote special privileges granted to indian administered kashmir the opposition is furious. it's a change in the constitution with far reaching consequences are not take the interests of using the powers vested under the 3rd section of article 370 following the recommendation of the parliament the president announces that starting the day the president of india will sign the declaration and the day when it will be published in the government is that all the sections of article 370 will cease to hold good except for section one of the article article $370.00 the section of the
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constitution that gives significant autonomy to kashmir is at the heart of why the region joined india in 1947 it allows the regional government to make its own laws except in finance defense foreign affairs and communications that means the residents of the state live under different laws from the rest of the country in matters such as property ownership and citizenship now the central government plans to split up the region into 2. 2 parts. and one and the duck which will be directly governed by new delhi the government has put parts of indian and ministered kashmir under security lockdown and has deployed tens of thousands of additional troops internet is blocked and phone lines are down 3 prominent kashmir politicians 2 fem former chief ministers are under house arrest revoking indian administered
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kashmir special status is expected to garner strong reaction this is a straightforward pandering to the hindu majority electorate in india. b j p o the hindu nationalist party came to power in elections in may this year with enhanced majority based on promises that it would remove these special provisions which they say that under to the muslims of of india so there is a clear political polarization here with the ruling party trying to pander to its hindu vote bank. they have already been protests as ruthless spread on sunday about the government's plan to hurt article $35.00 in article $370.00 is our basic constitutional right we have made an agreement with india the basis of these articles and now they are trying to derail only vocals articles this is an injustice to us. are not going to tolerate the should justice.


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