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tv   Inside Story 2019 Ep 344  Al Jazeera  December 11, 2019 2:32pm-3:00pm +03

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tons of ice every year and the losses are continuing to accelerate since 1902 melt toward from greenland has raised global sea levels by one centimeter. large protests have broken out in india's northeastern state of over a controversial citizenship bill being debated in parliament upper house that bill would grant citizenship to those fleeing religious persecution but it excludes muslims critics say it violates india's secular constitution by discriminating against muslims it's already been passed by the lower house of parliament on monday . all those are the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera with to inside story stay with us.
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after 3 years of political deadlock and stalemate the u.k. is just about to vote in the most important general election for a political generation vote conservative and to quote boris johnson he'll get bricks done for jeremy colvin and the u.k. will have a 2nd referendum vote for the liberal democrats and bricks it dies a death instantaneously but can't whoever becomes the next british prime minister actually deliver on what people voted for and what they voted against this is inside story. hello and welcome to the special inside story today coming to you from london the central problem the conundrum with brics it has always been the same how do the
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m.p.'s who live and work in that building square the circle of bricks it yes the vote was very close 52 to 48 percent but a majority of people voted to leave the european union believe the opinion polls and boris johnson will be returned as british prime minister but the opinion polls on breaks it have been wrong before to resume a boris johnson's predecessor made that mistake she believed the opinion polls and that ultimately cost her her job as british prime minister she couldn't deliver on bracks it how will whoever becomes prime minister on thursday deliver on bracks it will get to our guests in just a moment. ok there we are here we go let's get the thoughts of our guests joining us here in london tim bail deputy director of the u.k. in a changing europe clear fox she's a brick sit party member of the european parliament and in edinburgh we're joined by ross korea he's a member of the scottish parliament
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a warm welcome to you all tim bill 1st the conservatives have to win and they have to win big will they do it well they still have to get a majority it doesn't have to be a huge majority because boris johnson has a guarantee from all these m.p.'s that they don't support his withdraw agreement. it looks into the opinion polls at the moment anyway like they have a sufficient lead to beat off any last minute tactical voting by remain supporters who might vote for the lib dems in some considered cities and labor in the others and perhaps the s.n.p. as well as long as they are ahead the conservatives by around 8 percentage points they should be ok so how do the numbers unpack they've got to get clear clear blue water up roughly 30 m.p.'s more than anyone else yes something like that i mean a bare majority would be 325226 or something like that but they they really want to be up in the kind of 3 fifty's i think to be absolutely safe and secure i think
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over the next year or so clear it's part of your political d.n.a. brock's it why has nobody on this election campaign talked about the consequences of a boris johnson government and then quote get the bricks it done. well actually it's been frustrating because the get it done slogan has become a substitute for analysis i know that u.k. the change in europe just as one example of been trying to go into the weeds in the detail of what that deal might look like and if you can imagine if you're the brics it party he will find boris johnson's deal less in satisfaction at least want to talk about it but i think it is to a certain exhaustion breck solution people have called it that from the point of view of voters particularly those who now want the referendum vote to be on it the 2016 referendum but they feel after 3 and a half years some empathy with boris is get it done they're frightened i think of losing it's not enthusiasm for boris johnson that would be the wrong way to see it
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many people are loaning him their votes because they just think i can't bear to live through or near the parliament the tries to block the democratic will of the people to use the cliche and therefore they don't want to know the detail in some ways i mean a kind of almost like look he says that we'll be out after negotiations by the end of 2020 we can get this passed through parliament if we get him in so even though i hate the tories even though i don't choose boris johnson even though actually i'd like to be elsewhere i'm prepared to hold my nose in a slightly unsatisfactorily way of voting but it's what i found on the doorsteps roscrea in edinburgh does this all point to endure of 2 no matter how the country votes. scotland towards another independence referendum. i think the whole bridge of process has pushed to go on further towards independence referendum now you can look at there's been plenty of polls in the last 3 and a half years that have shown the gap narrowing support for independents creeping up a little bit but consistently when the polls ask questions around f.
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breaks that were to happen would you vote for independence it shows a real spike in support but regardless of whether or not breaks it happens overseas agree now i'm still campaigning to stop breaks it from happening the breaks it process has undermined the union the way scotland the scottish parliament the scottish government the scottish public have been treated as part of this process as well as of course the people of northern ireland has been nothing short of a combination of shambolic and with genuine contempt by the u.k. government to the point where the u.k. government were offering up points in their negotiations with the e.u. on entirely devolved issues as if not only devolution didn't exist which is 20 years old but as if scots law didn't exist and scots was existed for longer than the union has it's been this incredible combination of genuine ignorance and genuine contempt that the u.k. government has shown and regardless of what way the breaks or process plays out the process itself assuring people who in 2014 voted no many of them on the promise from the new campaign that the only way to stay in europe was just be in the u.k.
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issuing them actually the westminster stablish aren't really that interested in keeping them or certainly not interested in respecting what they voted for us scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain. i think it's interesting because i think you're right that the process of the last 3 and a half years is revealed to people a huge amount about the democratic process about westminster. there's an the argument is out as to whether it will lead to a. referendum in scotland or even just a referendum where greater desire for independence but i do agree with you that i think there's been more conversation about the inability of parliament to deliver these discussions about abolishing the house of lords constitutional reform the needful 1st past the post to be abolished and then you kind of p.r. when these kind of questions on now happening you know on the doors. pepsin accident in in places in the north of england i don't mean to hold it back into an all and the country but places where maybe constitutional matters in the northwest where i represent were not the bread and butter issue i have been interested in the
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last few days i don't know how accurate it is in the real election will show us that actually partly the discussion about scottish referendum a 2nd scottish referendum since you have actually frightened quite a lot of people in scotland to the extent that it looks as though the conservatives might even hold on to a lot of seats that everybody had thought that they would leave and we're hearing on the ground in scotland just to say gee i don't know how accurate it is but the polls certainly flecked this that people are now actually saying actually quite a lot of us voted to leave the european union not you know maybe more than voted for the s.n.p. in the last election with frightened it's going to be used by the scottish parliament to force the independents and there's a backlash against the independents and here i don't know if tim you're hearing the same but well i mean i've heard some of that i mean certainly the polling at the moment suggests that the conservatives are going to hold on to more seats than people thought they would you know maybe 8 or 9 seats which you know would be a useful addition clearly to their westminster contingent but where are we though
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when it comes to the states of british politics clearly you to recognise the description that we got from edinburgh they're talking about the 4 main political parties they've kind of skidded over scotland wales and northern ireland as well during the election campaign because we were hearing a lot about the back stop when the backstop became the front stop and then nobody's talking about the front stop and you talking about scotland boris johnson's personal rating figures minus 36 percent and he's lost ruth davidson who was the scottish conservative party leader she's gone off to have her family to be spend more time with her family as politicians do and yet despite all that you're saying boris johnson might do better than expected well i'm surprised myself i'm just i'm mentioning that that looks like what's going to happen just in terms of i mean. this isn't all just about what's happening in wales or scotland or northern ireland i appreciate you raising that but it is more the country in general and i think that when you ask what's happened to the main parties i think we can safely say that the referendum to leave the european union has now split political life along
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different lines so the tribal loyalties of people see the labor party or the conservatives or indeed even the lib dems being completely thrown up in the air and i mean maybe the greens as well but what i will say is that for example the labor party is now no longer representative of its own working class base millions of people actually voted for leaving the european union whatever reasons and they've been then described as kind of backward knuckle dragging xenophobes for doing so by their own party sebas not gone down well guess what and it does look as though what's described as the red wall is the. vote for the labor party in northern heartlands of the whole of the u.k. in wales throughout the u.k. it's going to crumble and these are places that have never ever ever voted anything but labor largely that suit been elected meanwhile the conservative party is
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attracting some of those voters and some of the brits are not as many as i'd like but the concept of voting with the concept is hate the conservatives in other words all of these things are thrown up the liberal democrats or jokingly referred to as people who are no longer liberal and certainly not democratic as they're trying to stop the referendum larry bringing that the traditional base is no longer exist in a straight forward way very very briefly broke the party you're not going to get the voters one particular sector of the voting public in this country that you need and that's the soft labor vote who would need peace with or they would probably go for boris johnson surely because he's cherry picked bits of what michael farr as your boss is all about he's never been my boss but carry on the the truth is we are not getting she. you know his writing although i have to say that everywhere i can all i meet is party voters so i don't quite know what's up in the polls it depends where you are if you go to places that maybe nobody polls you'll find a different story however you're right i think as i've said there's
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a slight panic and people are prepared to lend their votes to their stories but this is the important thing politics will never be the same again once she broken up regular voting for a party that you voted historically in your family for years once those parties of lost touch with their base and what we're hearing is people saying towards well we're not going to vote for the base well because we're scared that it might mean that labor will get in the remain alliance 'd they're not even anti labor they're remain alliance will block it then they say but don't worry we're can't come back because we agree with your democratic reform program or ever create in edinburgh and that's that's a problem for labor in scotland isn't it because they know all they have to do is get enough numbers to do a deal with the s.n.p. and then they form some sort of world nicholas sturgeon the s.n.p. leader has said not a coalition it would be a working arrangement and then jeremy corbyn that becomes a problem for him because he's got to be seen to be prove union he can then do with
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that whole debate what he's done about whether he's for or against the concept of brics it. this is the real challenge for labor and skull and i don't think anyone seriously believes that jeremy carbon or jomon don't know are committed unionists that's that's just not what their politics is all about the challenge they've got a scottish labor has made a massive strategic error over the last decade of doubling down on unionism as a major part of its political identity when a substantial say action of the labor base in scotland voted for independence in 2014 were pushed away by the labor party as a result so the expectation at the moment is that labor will probably lose all but one of their seats in scotland maybe even all of them and it's the challenge the labor party have of they can't unionists the conservative and unionist party to give its fill name and they're clearly not going to become a pro independence party so the s.n.p. and the greens get out what is left for labor whether polling at 1215 percent in scotland at the moment which is maybe the maximum number of people you can get if
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you're going to disengage completely from war as the defining issue of scottish politics or constitutional debate largely takes on a left right divide as well those who are for and dependence are generally not always of course but generally on the left and those who are against it are certainly led by figures on the right no way by the conservative party find themselves falling through the gap exactly as they have done on breaks it by trying to take this medal ground approach of we're not a party of remain but we're not a party of brakes either or a part of something else which is why they're trying to make this election about everything other than bricks and the right to bring up issues like the n.h.s. i wish they would bring up the climate for example far far more but the reality is we're having an election because it breaks it and in scotland the defining issue is another constitutional question neither of them have the labor party a convincing answer and we're going to yeah again see the results of in scotland where their votes go in all directions a labor union a civil conservative maybe up them pro independents labor voters will vote s.n.p. or green symbol here in london there isn't there as well and it's partly off the
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back of what cliff was was talking about a trust and a lot. deficits talk to anyone now and 2 things shine out one people don't know who they're going to vote for with 36 hours to go into one does get that feeling of people going to hold their nose and just go ok i'll go for bora sort of go for corporate ok i'll go from where did that come from well labor's problem if it does go to what claire was same although i don't think that's just about breaks it that's been building for a very long time labor have been losing the working class for you know 1020 years actually. it's partly got to do with the way that tony blair appeal to a kind of wider middle class electorate and that puts some working class people off labor has to do with values and it's not just to do with the european union has to do that on immigration etc etc but it is also a lot to do with germany corben we cannot forget that he is an enormous barrier to a lot of those people who might otherwise vote labor even irrespective of bracks
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said they can't bring themselves to do it because they just don't find him a credible figure he's as far as they're concerned indecisive he's weak and he's an patry all tick with a different labor leader i'm not saying everything will be rosy for labor and i certainly don't think we rosy in scotland for labor but in england it would be a very different competition a competent trusted credible labor leader could actually have done quite a lot to dampen the enthusiasm for boris johnson the people clear that you talked to in your moving towards bricks at a meeting towards nigel farage is the calculation for nigel farage and i take the point he's not your boss that people might go for the bricks at party because of the people of the politicians have not delivered on what they were told to deliver yeah the thing that i think is worth bearing in mind is that the party is i think 8 months old and it hasn't of course developed loyal links it was the vehicle through
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which leaves voters chose to express their dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties in the european elections. kind of forced out of that and it's a new party i actually think that when you say it will feel forced about the brits were nobody feels forced to vote for the brits abroad because actually that is an outside run it with very little polling so what people are doing is the people who vote for the best of the enthusiastic because they're the ones who say and the slogan is change politics for good they want something new and different but they but the majority of people feel that we can't get that yet because of the 1st past the post system and they're scared so what i was going to say was this is also had a real challenge to left and right i think this is a very important thing to understand that you know i'm from the left there's a number of people in the party like to me and from the left the people from the right this has become issues around what you think about national sovereignty popular sovereignty issues of independence and freedom whether you trust mainstream politicians democratic reform i stress that because i think we are on the brink of a new stage and although i agree absolutely with tim that maybe there's
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a corbin specific factor i do think that the mainstream parties are no longer fit for purpose and what i'd like to see out of this is a real shake up of political life where people feel that they can create new movements that are appropriate for 2020 is moving interesting that when you when you break turn there what people were voting for pick up on this point for me nobody during this election campaign has talked about the m. word migration why because in real terms wages in this country have gone up and the migration crisis such as it was 3 years ago has largely gone away people do not feel now that they should feel threatened because they're just about to lose their job from somebody who's just literally either sailed across the channel or got off a boat and got off a plane. that's part of the reals and that's partly because people feel that you know having been you know voted for in that 2016 referendum as solve the problem now it hasn't solved the problem and anyone who thinks that even if we leave the
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european union which looks like the end of january you know migration will suddenly drop precipitously or will even end this. fooling themselves but a lot of people do actually think that that has allowed us to regain control and with allow us to regain control in the future and that is in part why why that those concerns of drop but those cultural concerns about immigration haven't completely dropped away then not necessarily just to do with the economies of the economy recovers that doesn't mean people's doubts about immigration and concerns about the way it's changing this country have dropped away they are mainly cultural concerns to be honest ok. if jeremy corbyn the labor party leader manages to pull some sort of political rabbit or the hat does a deal with the s.n.p. and nicholas sturgeon cherry picks areas or tries to claw back areas of policy that definitely means it would appear to me that you will get india too you also have to get a 2nd referendum what would the question be that doesn't disenfranchise the people
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that voted for pricks it 3 and a half years ago. it will 1st of all remember i'm not from the s.n.p. and from the party they also believe in independence and so i can speak broadly as someone who has been part of the s. movement i work for the yes campaign and more movement once. starting position is that there can be 2 referendums in 2020 practical as a matter of time scale f. a majority was present in the house of commons for ape so-called people's voice 2nd referendum on bragg's vote on the specific deal there says remaining and that would come 1st the interesting challenge in scotland career mentioned earlier as people who voted yes to independence and who voted we've that's the challenge the yes campaign keep these people on board while attracting people who voted no and remain to vote yes best time everything we've seen so far speaking to people in doorsteps the focus group work that yes organizations have been doing not political parties she was actually these people who voted yes on leave prioritize independence more
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than leaving the european union but the answer to that question is quite simple the purpose of independence for us is to put scotland's future and scotland's hands it would be up to the people of scotland to decide whether our future is an or out of the european union can i go has always been to independence before we leave the european union so let's go and can stay a member i can stay a european setting but if we were to have brakes 1st and then a 2nd referendum were to happen it would then be up to us to decide what our relationship with europe person that relationship could change over time i'm committed to seeing an independent scotland have our own seat at the european table can i just come in there it won't just be up to the people of scotland it will be up to the e.u. 27 and of course there are concerns in some european countries about allowing scotland back into the e.u. spain in particular is going to have an an issue with that because you know it's not about the spanish government of car fight this there's 2 major parties in spain the socialists in the people's party the people's party government they're the right wing they're more unionist their foreign minister clarified that they would
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not veto an independent scotland membership in the current socialist government. said the same thing neither party that writes i'm going to stop you there and tell you why because we could spin off into a conversation about independence for catalonia which automatically want to do but when you talk about independence you're talking about an independent scotland going back into the e.u. you can't do that because your deficit has got to come below 3 percent at the moment the scottish deficit is running at 7.17.2 percent so that's a nonstarter anyway. it's a nonstarter the your application process is a process that you go for now for a start i think the scottish economy needs to change radically and of course i want to to cause that deficit but i want to green you do for scotland there same piece version of independence is all about extracting more oil and gas in the north sea that's a dead end it's an economic dead end and so dead end for the planet what i want is a transformation in our economy based on queen renewable energy restarting our manufacturing base bringing back heavy industry to the region of scotland i represent that hasn't had it since the ended under margaret thatcher in the 1980 s. that's the kind of economy we could vote for scotland that would transform people's
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lives left entire communities are poverty and we'd see years be a very valued member of the european communicate because remember give us 3 years people constantly had positive things to say about scotland and european capitals ok clear clearly clear threats like people are having to vote and decide on this maelstrom of issues it's not just bricks it is the way the other issues a sub divisible will a general election in this country in 36 hours be enough to wash away all those issues to give somebody a real operating majority even before the event go through that process again of the dreaded meaningful vote but i think actually what ross was talking about does speak to this because there's an aspiration it happens all over the place full self-determination governing your own future independence that drove the taking back control of the european union and i think that what the the what the election candy is it can allow the technical leaving of the european union that will satisfy
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what has seemed to be a thwarted slap in the face not just against that desire for taking back control but even for the universal suffrage i mean we've got a situation in 2019 in this country where there's been serious discussions over the last 3 an obvious by people in the establishment about how people are not educated enough will fit to be allowed to vote ok and so what i think this general election allows is able to say. tell him again we want to leave the european union we want not that all it ok in a sentence 20 seconds each other words will hit the inside story klaxon who's going to win and why i think the conservatives are likely to win because i think their slogan get breaks it down the pills to leavers and appeals to some exhausted remain because they have a leader who is far more popular than labor leader same question who when and how well they have done it and i hope the climate when's the next election because it's one of the last elections that we've got left before they're tapping point for our part in it that certainly means anything but
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a conservative majority government i hope personally for a labor minority government that's dependent on other parties like the greens who can force in a more radical and progressive direction it's not going to be not to be prime minister. clearly obviously it's not the last monday and the conservatives were win because it will be a concerted effort to block the remaining alliance and i hope that they'll be a few bricks party m.p.'s that kind of hold his feet to the fire because i don't trust the tories one iota ok we have to leave it there thank you all too guess they were clear fox tim bell and ross korea in edinburgh and thank you for watching we'll have ongoing special coverage of the u.k. election will be live on air as the polls close at 10 pm local time on thursday with scenes on the ground across the u.k. and we'll gauge reaction across europe as well plus we'll have another inside story special on friday trying to work out if this means that brics it actually will happen for me peter dobby and everyone on the team here in london thanks for
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watching i will see you very soon. capturing a moment in time. snapshots of all the lives. of the stories. provided tips into someone else's what. they. do day or. inspiring documentaries from impassioned
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filmmakers. quickness on al-jazeera. what kind of care does that provide and is anyone willing to pick up the cost we bring you the stories and developments that are rapidly changing the world we live in so is it possible for trump to actually obliterate the. counting the cost on al-jazeera. you leave this place children in this refugee camp the latest victims of the unending sectarian violence in central african republic among them are survivors of unspeakable violence 10 year olds the work as mother is dead her father is gone killed because they were christian by their own muslim neighbors this is the least you home an overcrowded refugee camp of 23000 people surrounded by armed militia groups celine wants answers she says she wants to be asking the questions and so we traded places inch took the microphone will we find peace how
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can we make the violence stop when will i be able to return home. oh. fully back to bill in doha with a look at our main stories on al-jazeera leader on sun so she is at the international court of justice in the hague defending her country against allegations of genocide she called the accusations misleading suchi insists the military has been conducting illegitimate operation against armed groups and that action has been taken against the use of excessive force on tuesday on tonsil she sat through a graphic accounts of mass murder and rape detailed against the military the allegations stem from a 27000 crackdown which forced more than 700000 mostly rolling of muslims to flee to name.

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