tv Business Live BBC News December 27, 2016 7:30pm-8:01pm GMT
sunshine towards the western coast. brightness in northern ireland and scotland. it will be cold where there is fog. all the latest and weather warnings can found online. hello. this is bbc news. the headlines. tributes begin to pour in for carrie fisher — who played the rebel alliance leader princess leia in the star wars films — who has died aged 60. voters in some parts of england are to be asked to provide proof of id before casting their ballots, as part of efforts to curb electoral fraud. but critics have called the move a ‘sledgehammer to crack a nut‘. the daughter of author richard adams — who wrote watership down — says he has died peacefully at his home. now on bbc news. business live looks back at the big stories this year, and asks what we can expect
in the coming 12 months. this is business live from bbc news. yes, as 2016 draws to a close, we are going to look back on a year which featured two events which will shape the global economy for decades to come. welcome to business live review of 2016. yep, this year saw the uk take that momentous decision to leave the european union. we're going to take a look at what lies in store for the next 12 months. and he did it! the billionaire businessman donald trump wins the race for the white house. he has made some bold announcements, but was it all talk and no action? and, of course, it has been a turbulent year
for the global market. oil prices hit that historic low. but there is light at the end of the tunnel. and, of course, following a landmark deal between members of the opec countries. and exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual reality. it has been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech but what can we look forward to in 2017? we'll speak to our resident gadget guru. and indeed, a very warm welcome to a very special edition of business live. so this year saw two of the biggest political results of the decade, as the recent trend towards globalisation kind of took a step back. there are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two of the world's biggest economies — europe and the united states. so let's start by taking a look back at what happened following the uk's decision to leave the european union. tonight at 10pm, the voters decide that after four decades it is time for britain to leave
the european union. i do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination. across asia today we have seen shares fall on the major markets, like japan's nikkei, down more than 7%. now look what happened, it tumbled down to levels not seen since the 19805. many people in the financial markets caught perhaps unawares by this decision. brexit means brexit, and we're going to make a success of it. it's a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big businesses, and against big politics. at the end of the day, jamie dunn, jp morgan, goldman sachs, have a good holiday. because i will give you a clue guys, you will be back. we are joined by our economics editor, ahmed. we saw there brexit back in the summer. we are looking ahead to 2017.
where do we stand in terms of uk negotiations? everything looks so uncertain, doesn't it? i think the phoney war will come to an end. 0bviously britain voted to leave the european union injune, and actually the practicalities of that will start next year. so the british government wants to spark what is called article 50, that starts the process of exit by the end of march. that's a two year process, so that process should be completed, we think, by 2019. i think their are tensions on both sides. in britain there are tensions between those who want what is called a hard brexit, fully out of the single market, out of the customs union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself, with no reference to the european union, and those that want a softer brexit. still having preferential access to the single market, possibly still in the customs union. that is tension on one side.
0n the european side, the 27 other member states, there are tensions between those who want to ensure that britain doesn't get a better deal by coming out of the european union, politically unpalatable as that is, but also britain is the second largest economy in europe. they don't want to set up trade barriers such that the european economy itself suffers by losing the british market. and, of course, london, the city, is one of the global leading financial centres. europe needs the city to fund its own businesses. indeed it does. talking of financials, let's bring up the market board because i want to talk about that. we can bring it up because i want to talk about the ftse and the pound. this is how they ended as of 21st of december. everyone talked about how if there was a vote for brexit we would see that pound plunge. absolutely. investors would think that assets in the uk may be less valuable in the future so that money would be
better employed on the european continent, and frankly in america, and so the pound has fallen in value. i think what is interesting, and maybe slightly more surprising, is how good equities have been and the markets have been. i think in a way although, yes brexit is incredibly important, politically and economically, but the fundamentals haven't changed that much yet. and so equities are still very attractive, because of the hyper low interest rates, very loose monetary policy, no signal yet from britain, really. the central bank in the uk or the central bank in europe, that interest rates are going to rise any time soon, and certainly not quickly. so the equities run has been very powerful. of course, a lot of those equities in the ftse, the london market, are companies that are global. their profits are in dollars, and so as sterling falls, their profits actually... yes, their actual profits are then sparked upwards. so you get to a situation where those equities are doing rather well.
so you have this sort of clash. equities positive, sterling having a tough time. you touched on europe, the european project, how is it looking going into 2017? well, again, brexit is important, but i wouldn't suggest it is the most important thing going on in europe in 2017. you have elections in the netherlands. in france, you have elections in germany, and each of those elections will be a big test about the kind of europe that the voters in europe want. a reformed europe, they still want higher levels of unemployment, problems with growth, what type of europe will people who support the project, when those elections, or will people who want to rip up the project and cause more tension in europe and possibly split up the european union, will they win? it is going to be a fascinating year. we are going to wrap it up, but let's put the cards on the table. could we see a european shock like we have seen brexit, and the election of donald trump? all the polls, i know we have to be very careful, all the polls suggest not,
but at the end of 2017, what might be described as the establishment parties have re... put themselves back at the centre of europe. the european project is incredibly important to the european governments, at the end of 2017, the polls suggest, that they will look more victorious than those who want to break up the european union. one thing we learnt this year was don't listen to the polls! thank you for your time this year. happy new year. thank you, and to you. the uk's decision to leave the european union certainly surprised the markets but investors didn't have to wait long for the next upset. the billionaire businessman donald trump swept to power in certainly one of the most divisive political campaigns in living memory. let's take a look back at some of those highlights. right now 92 million americans are on the sideline, outside of the workforce, and they're not a part of our economy. it's a silent nation ofjobless americans.
donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. he said back in 2006, "gee, i hope it does collapse because then i can go in and buy some and make money." well, it did collapse. that is called business. 9 million people. we will build the wall, 100%, and mexico will be paying for the wall. just imagine how many more automobile jobs will be lost if the tpp is actually approved. it will be catastrophic. we can't continue to allow china to rape our country, and that's what they're doing. donald] trump, the billionaire property developer with no previous experience of public office, is the 45th president of the united states. companies are not going to leave the united states any more without consequence.
it's not going to happen. 0ur number one priority is going to be the economy, getting back to 3% to 4% growth, we believe that is very sustainable, and focus on things for the american worker. that is absolutely our priority. nice, thunderous music there! i love it, i love the drama. a former white house adviser is here to add to the drama. and pippa, you did it! you picked brexit and you picked trump. idid! i know you want to talk about the economics, trump's vision for the economy. this is what we have been hearing day in and out over the last couple of weeks.
the team that he is building, what do you make of it? last one was mr navarro, who wrote one of his books, death by china. yes, exactly. one thing that is interesting, he's picking people with very different points of view. they will have a cabinet which actually argues, which may not be a bad thing. they are going to have debates and proper punch—ups about what is the right direction to go. so that is one thing. second thing, the establishment is very upset about all these new people because they are not. the electorate said they want the establishment out, i want something new in, something that looks after my interest more. that's what i think they are going to deliver. it is kind of... i think someone described it as bonfire of the agencies. trump has been brought in to literally burn the house down and start again, reconstruct this thing, and washington was overgrown in so many ways. so will there be accidents along the way? look, every president makes mistakes, so we are going
to see those for sure. but on the other hand, the upside here may be greater than people expect. just because they don't like him personally, but the markets are going to like his policies. we have seen that with the dow, haven't we? the wild card, though, is trade and the trade policy, and whether that is going to harm growth in the future. what is your take on that? so again, i suspect, i don't know, these are my personal views, but i think that there is a lot of bluster about trade policy. but in the end, what they want to do is sell more american goods, have better quality imports so the end goal is to actually have trade. they just won't use that word. we will hear free trade less and less. we will hear more things like smart business. but does it really mean something profoundly different? maybe not. they are saying you can't see the us as an island, it can'tjust act as an island. it has to trade in the world. it does, although to be fair, less than 10% of us gdp depends on exports, so as a nation
we are incredibly lucky. we can be an engine even if the rest of the world isn't growing very well. trade is a relatively small part our economy, compared to most others. so something to keep in mind. good to talk to you, pippa. thank you very much indeed. still to come, exploding phones, driverless cars, and virtual reality. it has all been a very eventful 12 months in the world of tech. but what can we look forward to in 2017? we are going to find out, we will speak to the guru, rory cellan—jones. you're watching business live from bbc news. throughout the show we have been hearing about how the events of 2016 are set to shake the business landscape for years to come. 2017 is set to be a busy year. the bbc‘s theo leggett has a timeline of key events in the next 12 months. in january, president—elect donald trump enters the white house. 0nlookers will be keen to see if he follows through with plans
to restrict trade and inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the us economy. fast—forward a couple of months and we will see the first big development in the brexit story. the uk prime minister says she'll trigger article 50 by the end of march. this is when britain can start formal negotiations with the european union and we may begin to see what the new relationship could look like in years to come. this is, of course, crucial to the future of the eu project. france is one other country which will be paying close attention. in april it will hold elections. the far—right candidate marine le pen is riding high on the wave of sentiment which is sweeping the globe. she is a staunch eurosceptic so there could be bad news for brussels is she is voted into power. in germany it is a similar picture. recent events have seen chancellor angela merkel come under fire for her open
door migrant policy. the public could go to the polls as early as 27th august. the german leader has seen a steady decline in her popularity ratings over the last few years. if 2016 is anything to go by, the next 12 months could be very interesting indeed. looking at the markets, and starting with the stocks in europe. the sterling down 16%, pretty much expected. but the ftse is up some 13%. the european markets also gained. so not a bad year. this is up until 20th december. you call it the quid, i call it the squid! in the us, in terms of the dowjones, a rise of around 15% this year. anticipating that donald trump may follow through with his trillion dollar spending plan. it could provide a boost to many major american companies, let's admit it, they need it. it is borrow and build,
but maybe they don't need to borrow. many investors may throw their money into infrastructure. you are watching business live, review 2016. events of the past 12 months have made for a turbulent year in global markets. the price of the black stuff, oil, was already added oil, was already at its lowest point for a decade. this had investors wondering whether the market could get any lower. injanuary, iran returned to international markets following the lifting of western sanctions, and crude fell below $20 per barrel. it proved to be short—lived. the market rallied. some of that oversupply left the market, if you will. in september, some of the world's leading oil—producing nations managed to reach a landmark agreement to the first time in november in over eight years. members of 0pec struck a deal to limit production. initially, the market had it doubts
that the deal would hold, but after iran and saudi arabia agreed to resolve their differences, the oil price surged once more. we can speak to a senior oil and gas analyst. a good aussie institution. that is the key. what we just said there, we have all agreed, but will they stick to that? compliance is always key. they have not done it for a while. what encourages the market is that the core countries of 0pec, the gulf countries like arabia, uae, they make up more than half, and they will comply. we think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some degree. many countries tempted by the slightly higher oil price to increase supply and make more money?
it has been hard going for countries including south america and some african countries. yes, and also libya and nigeria, coming out of a depressed position. they will be allowed to increase. there will be a lot of complaints. when we saw that announcement, in the lead up, they have finally made this agreement, but they cut at record levels. russia was producing more than 11 million a day, something like that. will it make a huge difference? with demand increasing, lower prices equals that it is cheaper, so demand growth is good. how long will that last now prices are rising? unless there is a recession in the west, we will see a decent amount of growth. it will increase the wiggle room that some of the countries have. yes, the us is also producing a lot of oil at the moment. the worry is they will
produce even more. it will be frackers who come into it because of the price, making money. they can switch it on pretty quickly? there is a finite limit to that. with a bit of compliance and demand, i think the oil price will reach $60. what are your predictions for 2017? as i say, $60 brent. no $100 mark? unless there is a cataclysm somewhere. we have had that before. no, we're not forecasting that. a nice and smooth path back up to $70. we will have you back next year to work out if you were right! we have put you on the spot.
it changed my life for a week and then it was gone. the best phone out this year. a viewer in scotland says i would never use a driverless taxi or vehicle, and in india, iwould be scared to sit in one in india because it might malfunction. i tweeted this about five o'clock this morning and had nothing but a short, sharp, swift response from viewers about this one. it has been an interesting year. a bundock appearance! 2016 has been an eventful year
in the world of tech. and of course the war between samsung and apple reached explosive new heights, i see what they did there. boom. rory, good to see you. you have bought your gadgets in. see that picture? is this the future? we have said 2016 was going to be the year of virtual reality, when we saw a lot of gadgets. we have not seen the mass take—up yet. we are now seeing the emergence of cheaper forms of it. this is an example, a cheap headset in which you put a mobile phone. much easier to get to grips with. not as good as things like the 0culus rift, but obviously very cheap. what does it do? you are being transported into new worlds. my experience from this... i like the world i'm living in!
my experience is the first time somebody does this, i did it with family members, with an ageing parent the other day. did you? they are quite excited by it. my question is whether that will last? the first experience is great and then you do begin to say, yes, but what is it for? it is all about big companies applying it to something. a constructive... i'm seeing more of augmented reality mode, putting virtual objects and a real world. a great example was pokemon go, wandering around with phones catching pokemon. getting arrested for wandering around with phones. we will see more of that next year. voice control! be quiet. 0k google.
aaron is a bbc world television presenter... it works! we saw the amazon echo, voice controlled speaker, take off. then we have the google rival. devices that you talk to, voice becoming a new interface. we have seen in mobile phones. this is a google mobile phone using the google smart assistant. you also have siri. those are becoming so much more sophisticated. so much smarter.
when i ask, it follows it up by how old is he? are people buying them? they are. these voice controlled speakers are out there. these are things that are out there. they are in the environment. voice control is becoming a thing. this is the stuff when we were younger we watch the science fiction films and there would be a spaceship. what amazes me is how blase we are about it. in star trek, there were devices where you could speak one language and it will come out in another. we have them. what about the driverless cars? there is a lot of controversy. it feeds into the same theme, more intelligence being built into all sorts of devices. we have come a long way with driverless technology and i am expecting more demos of that.
the big show in las vegas in january. and that sort of technology leads us into the internet of things. yes. i've a bunch of devices, all connected to the internet. that is a smart doorbell with a camera on it. so it will identify who has come to your door and you can let them in by smart phone. smart lighting that you can control. i just bought this. a lot more drones. rory turns his christmas tree lights on via his phone. thank you forjoining us. that is it from business live. thank you for watching. see you in the new year. take care.
temperatures are already falling below freezing in some places with a ha rd below freezing in some places with a hard frost to come. in some parts of the uk today the frost never shifted. the other ingredient is the fog forming overnight and by tomorrow it will be quite a disruption across england and wales. it starts to form through the early hours across england and wales with a vengeance, hours across england and wales with a vengeance, not hours across england and wales with a vengeance, not so hours across england and wales with a vengeance, not so for northern ireland and scotland. if you are on the move across england and wales you can expect some thick freezing fog in some places. further north the odd pocket of frost for parts of northern ireland and east of scotland. in general temperatures are higher here. for most of
scotla nd are higher here. for most of scotland and northern ireland not a bad day, parts of england and wales also seeing some bright sunshine but the fog lingers. if you start off with the fog it could stick around for much of the day. 11 degrees across the north west of scotland, much colderfurther across the north west of scotland, much colder further south and east and whether fog sticks around, maybe some places struggling to get above freezing all day long. the fog becomes widespread again on thursday, particularly for england and wales, difficult to nail down exactly who will see the west of the fog but it could be slow to clear again on thursday. some rain across the far north—west of scotland but again hear some of the highest temperatures. ' again hear some of the highest temperatures. ‘we again hear some of the highest temperatures. ' we have again hear some of the highest temperatures. ‘we have some wet weather arriving especially to the north west of scotland. just ahead of that we have some mild error for
a time, double figures quite widely for scotland and northern ireland. by for scotland and northern ireland. by the weekend, some wet weather coming down across the country through new year weekend. so expect some rain and then behind that, it turns colder again. this is bbc news. the headlines: the imperial senate will not stand for this. the actress carrie fisher, best known for playing the princess leia in the star wars films, has died aged 60. she was taken ill last week. carrie fisher's co—star mark hamill, who played luke skywalker, tweets to say he's devastated, adding: "there are no words." ministers reject criticism that plans to require voters to show id at polling stations are a "sledgehammer to crack a nut".