rachel has joined rachel hasjoined me rachel has joined me for the newspaper review. let's start on the front page of the international new york times where they have a story on the imminent independence referendum in catalonia. they're calling the vote a "constitutional crisis emblematic of the larger forces tearing at european unity." from one independence referendum to another. the gulf news is featuring an article on the potential fallout from the kurdistan referendum which resulted in a 92% yes vote on thursday. but what's the impact been on the oil markets? it seems a long time ago that hurricanes harvey, irma and maria devastated parts of the caribbean. but puerto rico is still grappling with the destruction, as is lloyd's of london, the world's biggest insurance market, which hasjust started paying out the first of four point five billion dollars of related claims. the guardian's financial section has that story.
next, another story that doesn't seem to be going away — the alleged russian "hacking" or influencing of last year's us presidential elections. more news in the times after twitter shuts down 200 russian—linked twitter accounts. and finally — we all love ikea stores for their daim cake and meatballs, billy bookshelves and house plants but when you get the flatpack furniture back home it's a slightly different story. that might be why the swedish company has just bought oddjob site task rabbit — a sign of their push into providing services. ican i can never understand the instructions. we will go to that. in the future you not need to. with me is bill blain, a strategist at mint partners. starting with that story in the new york times, holding the vote on cata la n york times, holding the vote on catalan separation? this is fascinating. something the spanish government has tried to do for yea rs, to government has tried to do for years, to dampen the demand in
catalonia for independence. you have to step back and think they are being a tad heavy—handed here. this referendum, is a unofficial referendum, is a unofficial referendum still happens this weekend, many people can't vote because of the massive police presence and many of the mayors being told not to open their town halls to allow voting. but the pressure will still be there. and we all know that as soon as you tell people they cannot have something, thatis people they cannot have something, that is when they demanded. they are fuelling pressure on the talents to demand a formal vote down the road. and then the next thing, of course, are the implications of a regional vote in catalonia. because you will see the same thing then happen in other parts of europe. one to really watch is northern italy versus southern. if there was to be a divide, that leaves a very poor southern state and a rich north. divide, that leaves a very poor southern state and a rich northm catalonia situation, catalonia is a
rich area, the economic engine of spain. they would argue they are propping up the rest of the spanish economy and they want independence. do they have a point? well, they can claim to be an independent state, much the same way that the scots and the welsh could claim the same thing. they are also very integrated within the spanish economy. i think there is a lot of long—term residual resentment by the way the spanish regions were treated under franco. that has manifested itself in different ways. the basques, who we a lwa ys different ways. the basques, who we always thought wanted independence, doing quite well within the new spain. but the catalans have seen an opportunity to go their own way by being heavy—handed about it i think they are being pushed down the wrong road. it is interesting that they had a referendum in 2014 and was not opposed but this time they are quite heavy—handed. opposed but this time they are quite
heavy-handed. the last referendum was announced as a straw poll. it was announced as a straw poll. it was always just an opportunity to test people. this time it will not bea test people. this time it will not be a proper referendum, theyjust do not have the mechanisms. but it will have some legitimacy. it will pause on, at some point, down the road to have a proper referendum and that will be big trouble for europe. speaking of independence referendums. the gulf news reporting on the referendum by the kurds in iraq. they are now accused of people wanting to get out on flights could be banned. it is not an easy path. well, you have the new kurdish homeland which they voted to achieve. this is not a vote that is recognised by anyone but it is absolutely clear that the kurds who live on the turkish border of nerves in iraq want their own homeland. they voted almost unanimously to get it. but of course the turks do not
wa nt it. but of course the turks do not want it and the iraqis do not want it to the only way the kurds will be able to export the oil they are sitting on if either of these countries. we are heading towards a stand—off and that is why it is getting interesting for the oil market. we are talking about 600,000 barrels a day comes out of the kurdish homeland area. that will cause a short—term supply crisis or perception of the supply crisis in the oil market in this week we have seen the oil market in this week we have seen oil prices sustain a higher rate than they have for a long time. but there are plenty of other producers who are ready to come in and produce oil so long—term it will not be a thing of the oil market that it will be more regional instability. the financialtimes, we have lloyds paying out for howrah came damage. putting aside the human cost of these storms, if we just look at the financials, 2017 has been a serious year for the
insurance industry which was very well capitalised up until this point. lots of resources, lots of money. is 2017 going to have an impact on the capital? catastrophes go in impact on the capital? catastrophes goina impact on the capital? catastrophes go in a volatile chart. this will be one of the years when we have more catastrophes than a quiet year but as you say they are very well capitalised. in fact, the damage has been significantly less than some people were anticipating. while we we re people were anticipating. while we were waiting for the first storms to hit there were many analysts trying to work out just hit there were many analysts trying to work outjust how much damage this would do to the insurance sector. there was one part of the insurance financial market that we call catastrophe bondss which actually hedges the insurance companies and that sold off dramatically. anyone who purchased at the bottom of that sell—off has done quite well because the damage has been left. is also worth remembering that the howrah came seasonis remembering that the howrah came season is not
remembering that the howrah came season is not over remembering that the howrah came season is not over yet and we have an increasing number of seismic events as well to all the cost of this ensuring season have a effect on the premiums? across the board? it will push them up across—the—board. the insurance company market is very aware that these things happen. anyone taking insurance is going to find that reflected next year in their premium. we are talking about the staggering amount of money, $4.5 billion. is a residential homes or businesses and hotels and resorts? that $4.5 billion is just a fraction of the total amount of damage which probably is in excess of 70 billion. that is what lloyds is left ensuring. a lot of the rest will have gone into what call the reassurance market where the risk is spread. not one person facing that whole load, it will be spread right around financial institutions. a lot of insurance companies will have
taken a risk. but they will have gotten premiums for ten years in order to reflect that. a russian cyber campaign aims to splinter america. we had the head of facebook apologising. this is the thing that fascinates me about this story. mark accepting the fact that people may be using facebook and twitter being used for the furriers purposes. it isa used for the furriers purposes. it is a bit like that scene from casablanca where the french police chief is called gambling in the casino and then he closes it down and says that he shocked and horrified by gambling. i think it is terribly interesting that this story sums up what has been going on. playing to division and the story, particularly, references of the kneeling to the flag campaign that is going on. because that creates division within the us and it costs almost nothing to create that kind
of division. the number something like $217,000 but these russian accou nts like $217,000 but these russian accounts paid to place adverts that have created an enormous effect that may have influenced the election. no time to talk about it but the last story is ikea purchasing task rabbit, and app that send people around to do an odd job. i wish they had done this much sooner. can you build a book shelf? i have built in your able. and then i needed someone in to build them properly. bill, thank you so much for coming in this morning. hi there. over the last few days, we've been carefully tracking the progress of hurricane maria, which wrecked dominica and puerto rico. lots of weather in the atlantic. a big area of low pressure and a powerfuljetstream over that,
a big swell of cloud that looks like a massive ear pushing a band of rain eastwards over the uk over the next 12 hours or so. we will see some rain as we start friday, our main weather front across west scotland and western england and wales. ahead of that, patches of light rain, drizzle and foggy conditions over the hills of southern england, particularly salisbury plains and the downs. a mild start to the morning, temperatures 16—17 degrees even at eight o'clock in the morning. rain beginning to clear away from western england and wales, some sunshine coming out. the rain could be heavy for a time across north—west england. wet weather with us for some, and a soggy commute to work. most places have the chance of seeing some morning sunshine. through the day, brisk winds pushing rain eastwards across the country. eventually clearing away from east anglia, lincolnshire and yorkshire as well.
some blustery showers into northern ireland and western scotland, some quite heavy. starting to feel a good deal cooler across the north—west. temperatures 14—15 degrees. potentially reaching as high as 20 degrees, some sunshine across eastern england. through friday night, further clumps of showers coming in across north—western uk, wind staying up overnight. wetter skies across central and eastern england. where those winds fall, it could turn quite chilly. temperatures potentially getting down into single figures in the countryside. the weekend, a mixed bag. a reasonable start, but turning wet and windy during the second half of the weekend. starting off with the forecast for saturday. for most of us, a decent start with some sunshine. quite windy across north—western areas. not entirely dry everywhere, one or two showers mostly across the western side. 14 degrees the top temperature in glasgow, 18 in london. those temperatures coming down a little bit. as for maria, it could bring heavy rain to southern parts
of england on monday. quite a bit of uncertainty. getting mixed up in that weather system on sunday, in any case, bringing wet and windy weather to the uk. gales, even severe gales across the coast across the southwest of the country. blustery showers feeling cool once again across the south—west. so, saturday the better of the two days the weekend. hello. this is breakfast, with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. an ultimatum for ryanair from the airline regulator. the company has until five o'clock today to tell passengers how they'll be compensated for flight cancellations or face legal action. good morning. it's friday the 29th of september. also this morning: nurses say patients are dying alone on hospital wards because staff