tv Dateline London BBC News November 18, 2017 4:30pm-5:00pm GMT
hello, this is bbc news. the headlines: zimbabwean soldiers prevent demonstrators marching on president robert mugabe's house, as tens of thousands of people are on the streets, calling for his resignation. richard leonard is the newly elected scottish labour leader, replacing kezia dugdale who stepped down in august. police and air accident investigators search for clues as to why two aircraft collided over buckinghamshire, leaving four people dead. hundreds of volunteers assist dorset police in searching for missing teenager gaia pope, who disappeared 11 days ago. a tax on single—use plastic products, such as food packaging trays and polystyrene takeaway boxes is being considered, to try and cut ocean pollution. now on bbc news, dateline london. hello, and welcome
to dateline london. i'm jane hill. this week, we discuss zimbabwe and its future, and look at another apparently difficult few days in the brexit talks. is there stalemate between britain and the rest of the eu? joining me: the sunday telegraph columnist janet daley, the american writer and broadcaster jef mcallister, the africa specialist dr vincent magombe and the irish times correspondent suzanne lynch. welcome to you all. thanks for being with us today. when is a coup not a coup? zimbabwe's military put 93 year old robert mugabe under house arrest on wednesday. he's been in powerfor 37 years but,
as we go to air, tens of thousands of people are out in harare demanding he steps down. he was briefly was seen in public on friday at a university graduation ceremony but, vincent, is it army generals who are currently in charge? you mentioned the graduation. he actually slept through its! he was caught napping, yes. i think what's happening is so interesting. in africa, in the midst of pain and struggle, there is a lot of fun that goes on. i can only smile at what's going on in zimbabwe. first of all, it is a coup that is not a coup. a president that is not a president. in a certain way, in a more serious way, i think we can comfortably say that robert mugabe's political journey is at an end. he is politically dead. i wish in very good health,
but let him respect... these are african traditions. something where we say old people are supposed to be the wise ones. usually they have a lot of sense. young people sit around the fire and a telephone lots of good wings. that's mugabe do the right thing, let him respect his age. this is good for africa because i'm in my own country, uganda, you have 70 something years, there's an article in the constitution which serve the limit is 75. as we speak, there are protests across the country. to say, please don't change that article. what are these old fellas doing for africa? they were liberators, mcgarvey was a liberator, he got mansford of people, even if he gave it to the wrong people.
—— mugabe. but he liberated zimbabwe from white rule. he has destroyed his own credibility trying to hang onto power until he is 100. trying to create a family dynasties. is this word suggestion that i will die the president and i will be given the biggest type of, those types of soviet sendoff. i think he's not going to get that now. he could get its because they are doing it in the right way. there is this thing of trying to say we will respect him, he is an elder, a liberator. let's not humiliate him. but he's being very stubborn. —— but he is being very stubborn, let's not humiliate him. i think today is, for me, the real mark of what might come. the people going to the streets.
where the pro—democracy activists? the zimbabwe army is going to hand power to them? they have to fight for it. veterans and others are trying to steal the space within that arch. what they want to do is then you have... it's going to be a battle. it's going to be fought for by the pro—democracy forces. the 93—year—old himself is... he is a nonentity. they are adamant that they won't onto power. how much of a revolution is it if it is about putting in a new person
he was not particularly young? that is why we can have comfort in the fact that the pro—democracy movement has been going for a while now, and if the leadership has sometimes been fractured between this and bass, but the people have been maturing. all my hope is that they will not come out and keep coming out until they force the army, because the army is not... pro—democracy forces are also —— always united at this point. remember the arab spring, there is a terrible lesson there. you get rid of the great old man, a sentimental attachment to the liberator and you end up with chaos, or maybe went up with democracy. we won't know for a while whether this is terrible news or good use. the next few days will show us, if we see the pro—democracy movement refuses to go off the streets. the right thing is to set up
a transition government that includes all the groups. the athens has to be democratic elections. are they going to call them? —— the essence has to be. this is one man now being removed. all the power structure around him continues. all of the intelligence, all the corruption, all of the very tight levers of power. it's like getting rid of stalin to get barrier. you're right that the fundamental long—term direction has to be in favour of democracy, but the democracy movement has been crushed before. not entirely crushed but we have been through this and a lot of people have been killed. they have to be reticent about putting their necks on the line. it is a coup that is not a coup. in order to looks legitimate inside as well as
with the outside world, all the forces are still going to try to hold on as much as they can. the point of hope is that we have already been there. we had a transition government. it shows that even mcgarvey himself at one point or another started realising that you can'tjust do it your own way. —— robert mugabe. they're in for tracing the pro—democracy demonstrations and manipulating them, that's the danger. you read a manipulating in the name of? china is a big player in this. china is becoming an economic superpower in the developing world. it's like russia used to be during the cold war. that was ideological, this is economic. it means there is a potential confrontation with the west briefly fluids over this region. this isn't being conducted in a vacuum. also the river the other countries around, and to
seizing that this week in held as a mediator is interesting considering the issues happening internally. the power struggles within the anc, and simmer being such a problematic figure himself. african union isjust a club of the same holds... thunder is divided and ruptured within its own format. we have botswana, the president of botswana, he said categorically that mugabe go immediately. you now have very interesting thing because it forces from south africa, you would have mainly angolan soldiers but also sad african soldiers, we have a very interesting development. we have this new president who seems to be trying to say, look, we shouldn't move into just supports lack
of democracy. he started attacking the dos santos family. he fired dos santos‘s daughter. i think there is no unanimity to say we just want to impose rule. but in uganda, in africa, in some way, it's the activists, pro—democracy movement, that will define whether anything goes oui’ way oi’ not. in terms of the next few weeks, you are clearly saying the pro—democracy forces have to be united here, and that we are in a really pivotal few days? there wasn't an issue of demonstrations, i was going to cover demonstrations to sort out that thing. now it has come but we are all so seeing some
fractures within the movement on the street. we see their tactics, to grab that space. where the movements who demonstrated just a year ago? there were thousands. at that time they were facing the army, police. by the way, not scared. let them come out. let them organise themselves like the egyptian people. the egyptian thing showed is that when people come together, they can make a little change. here we have so many factors. luck is on their side. mugabe is going, that was the main block. now we have the army in two minds. i believe the army will want to do the right thing. otherwise... it will continue facing a lot of pressure as they go on. the economy will
continue collapsing. facing pressure in the streets. demonstrations in the streets always eventually dissipate. unless you can turn it into institutional change, systematic political change and reform, it goes nowhere and very often ends in violence. really bloodcurdling scenes, tanks in the streets. demonstrations on the streets are a sign of really serious disillusion as dissatisfaction. but they don't in themselves... if we have a transition government including the opposition, it will tell us where the government, were this movement is going. quickly, do we know where grace mugabe is? does it matter? she is hiding in the toilet! she was the targets of the army officers. —— i'm justjoking. we heard she might have gone to namibia. it doesn't matter where she is right now.
she cannot take power. the fact that she was the target of this not a coup means that it was a personal thing. it was about particular personalities, not about institutional change. you get rid of the person you don't like, but in the person you like and that's the end of that? just like in uganda, we are standing up. some are buoyant have to do that. we will see if that pans out in the coming days and weeks. the word stalemate has been heard again this week — not for the first time — in relation to the brexit talks. britain's prime minister was on a charm offensive at a summit in sweden, secretary of state david davis was avuncular in interviews in berlin — while jean claude juncker was reminding everyone that the clock is ticking. meanwhile the chancellor delivers his budget to westminster on wednesday — will the contents of philip hammond's ministerial red box be enough to keep things on track and save theresa may's premiership?
the uk government seems to have launched something of a charm offensive in europe to try and make some progress on brexit discussions a lot to chew over there. is that a nervous laugh? these negotiations any more, this is a hostage crisis! the conditions under which the prisoner will be released won't be discussed until the money is counted on the table. you have to remember that for the eu, it's terribly important that this all looks as bloody as possible and as difficult as possible, in order to discourage anybody else who might get this idea, don't try this at home. they could break for little reason the wheel because it was a tiny failing economy, a basket case and the population didn't want to leave the eu. that's not the case with britain. written as the second—largest contributor to the budget. it's understandable that they should be worried about the money. they're creating now this smoke screen about, you may disagree, about their hard border on ireland. nobody wants a hard order with violence. the body in britain, northern ireland ‘s, southern
highlands, once a hard order with ireland. —— nobody in. this could be resolved quite easily but the eu is stoking this up so that it doesn't look as if it is all about money. they have admitted that progress has been made on the business of the rights of the users and is living in britain and vice versa. that seems to be the one area where there has been some progress. it been a good idea for britain to save from the off all new user dozens living in britain will have the same rights. that would have not only the right thing but it would have frankly wrong—footed the eu response. we couldn't have been fused of using them as pawns. we are where we are. —— couldn't have been accused. it is the money that is the issue. it is also the fact that the eu is determined to make this book as difficult, and with the corporation of a whole cater of people within britain who don't want to see this happen.
as much of a sense of doom and despair as is politically possible. the people who write to me and communicate with me are self—selecting, but every time john sergeant opens his mouth, a million britons remember why they voted believe that a all right to me. —— john claude junker. if we had a second referendum now, the vote would probably be 60—40. let's not debate about that! we can debate money because we hear that in the coming days, theresa may is perhaps going to talk about is, of course that is denied, but talk about increasing what might be on the table. is it about money for you? i disagree with everything janet said. the money is a blip in turn sells
the size of the european budget, european economies. no one release has about the money. no one cares about the money? the britons do. it is still not that big a deal. free europe, europe is the most important thing. if britain wants to leave, it has got it... to me, this reminds me of my wife who went to catholic school and in second grade or the eight—year—old asks, can god make a square circle? she pondered this and pondered this and didn't get the right answer. the sister rupture with a ruler because she said, sister, there is no square circle, god can make it. god can do anything! i feel that's the way the brexiteer zaha. they believe that everything can be happy, that we can
have the cake and eat it. —— the way the brexiteers are. that you can have ireland inside the eu in a customs union, or you can have it not. you can't have... can ijust... the irish premier has said... let's hear from suzanne. this is a very serious issue. we have got, just a recap, three issues to be resolved before europe says we can move on to a new set of things. which is the trade relationship between britain and europe. one of those issues now, the irish order, is an important issue. no one wants to return to a hard order. what's not —— what has now emerged that britain does he do have a plan to avoid that.
now ireland has had to be anti—in the last few days, and really want a written commitment before they go oi'i to phase too that there will be no order. they're worried that if it's not agreed now, it will get lost everything else next year whether trade negotiations start. i can see britain —— i can see why britain want to discuss the border with the trade relationship next year. ireland is caught in the middle. are we looking at a situation of an eu summit in four weeks which is crucial, we looking at a situation where ireland will essentially veto moving onto the next stage? ireland is try to get britain and brussels happy but there are hundreds of officials in dublin and brussels working on this. on the second issue, to pick up again what you said, this idea of europe playing hardball, of course it's going to be tough. the day britain moved to leave, the head of the european council said they have gone, they have left.
ourjob is to look after the 27 other countries here. of course they're going to be tough and strive to maintain... yes, they want to trade relationship to next but unfortunately i believe it is 37 countries versus one. a very important country with a big contribution to the budget but i don't big it should be any surprise that the 27 countries will work together. i'm curious what lies behind a wry smile! i've got too many things about africa in my mind to be bothered about what happens in britain! watching people squabbling, not like kids, but really squabbling in a way that's... if brexit is happens come up, britain would still be living. but what i suspect is, i would not be surprised if britain just crashes out without a deal. but you know what?
because our friends, the brexiteer ‘s, as i suspect from a long time since that started, or types of people who don't mind having in britain, even with lots of problems, britain is not going to be uganda. many of us will see things going down, jobs, but you have skills, industry, everything. don't mindhat. further, what matters is that we are running the show. people like me go home. no, no. parliamentary sovereignty... but that question was at the heart of the referendum. you want me to go... african migrants were not in the question at all!
is because we are at the unspoken victims. i'm telling you. you point a lot about these europeans, that's ok. because for us, you cannot send us the way... where are we going? commonwealth immigration actually suffered because we had to let in an unlimited number of eu migrants. britain wants to stop that. i'm sorry, that isn't true. on the sovereignty issue, what was really interesting this week was this debate that is rambling on about how much mps are going to have over the shape brexit. a lot of people were saying that they're not accepting the referendum result. another way of looking at it is a deep irony that one of the reasons people wants to get out was to restore sovereignty of parliament. the people who suddenly
have got this absolutely mad sentimental attachment to the idea that parliament should have the say, those are the people who have been giving it away for 40 years. those of the people who accepted the committees act of 1972 which meant that european law to presidents over british law. they kiss parliamentary sovereignty goodbye happily. let's not rerun the referendum. we have a deadline looming, december 14—15, not very far away. next week we have philip hammond at the budget. we read plenty about crisis in theresa may's leadership, how is she going on? your thoughts on the budget, what it might achieve? where it takes us in terms of this overall broker debates at theresa may's premiership. i don't think it takes us very far with the brexit debate. theresa may is certainly very weak, she has a very weak government. on the other hand, germany has no government at all.
angela merkel has not been able to form a coalition. it's conceivable that she will have to call elections before the end of the year. when we go on about the weakness of this government, we have to remember that we are quite spoiled in this country by stable majority parliamentary government. in europe, where they have to have consensus and coalition, the whole thing is on a much more delicate balance. the whole chemistry of this, with macron, with his polyphonic ideas about a united europe led by france, he is eager to displace angela merkel as the most parable leader in the eu. the power structure on the other side of this equation is in flux as well. in terms of hammond, he may not be chancellor for much longer if you read a speculation. he may have a budget and then because of the internal politics, if there is a reshuffle, he may be gone. who knows? there isn't a lot of running room.
there's not a lot of extra money anyone can find, given austerity and his commitments to continuing things. there may be some changes aimed at young people on housing, on students. i'm sure it will be clever but i don't big it can be a game changer under the circumstances. the problem with the budget is that it is trying to save theresa may. i agree with lots of the labour politicians who were saying the budget should be about the people. not about the problems. which people? you don't know who the people are? the intergenerational war that is being stoked up is very dangerous. politically and socially. it's quite mythical. older people are not disparaging about the lack of property at the lack of housing for young people at all. they're worried about their children and grandchildren. it's a very unhealthy as progress
is being to stoke up and intergenerational conflict. or they're saying is to do the right thing. build houses, do whatever infrastructure. help the country to grow. to go back to the germany issue, you write about these negotiations in berlin but these happen all the time. four years ago was the same. although i do accept angela merkel was more we can double last election. i figure brexiteer prefer her to be in the driving seat here rather than france. she is very pragmatic. i firmly believe that germany really will decide how this goes. all the top of michel barnier, it will be angela merkel and a manual macron. try this again next time if you possibly can for a lot more passionate debates. see you next week. goodbye. to the weather has been very grey
and drizzly any cell today, but these guys are going to clear right across the country tonight, and it is going to be cold which means that sunday morning is going to be frosty across the uk. any short—term, some damp weather in the far south, cloud across more central areas, but the is like dropping like a stone. early sunday, in the countryside, tebbit is down to —5 in the north and close to freezing if not below in central london. not in cornwall and devon, it will be mild and their overnight.
tomorrow, fine 25??? across tamas? the uk, .low the uk, - low pressure and a of the uk, but low pressure and a weather front with thicker cloud and some light rain getting into the far west of the uk during the course of the afternoon. monday, damp and 5°99y the afternoon. monday, damp and soggy across many parts of the uk, a little bit colder in scotland. this is bbc news. i'm lukwesa burak. the headlines at 5pm: soldiers in zimbabwe stop crowds from marching on president mugabe's house. tens of thousands are on the streets of harare demanding that he step down. hundreds of volunteers join the search for missing teenager