tv The Briefing BBC News April 26, 2018 5:45am-6:01am BST
of the petroleum exporting countries pact to cut output, which has resulted in soaring oil prices. with me is amrita sen, who is chief oil analyst at energy aspects. good to see you back. so let's talk about how the media is discussing this visit on the part of macron. he is on his way back to france, the figaro saying friendly but critical. interesting to see how the french see this trip, how has gone for their president in the. absolutely, so their president in the. absolutely, so it was quite a contrast. the first day was about the shaking hands, and a lot of good jokes on that one, but i think his speech was very well received across—the—board, really. ra rely have very well received across—the—board, really. rarely have i seen a foreign president give a speech and he got a standing ovation. often, he had to
pause quite regularly for the clapping and cheering. and like it says, i think the first day was we are very good friends, but when it came to it, he was critical of his foreign policy, of the us foreign policy, of their climate policy, of iran as well. he made it clear that they do not want to move away from they do not want to move away from the deal. so i think it was very balanced, but in france they do have the strikes coming up over the weekend. well, they had ongoing strikes, they had strikes on monday and tuesday, so he wasn't around for that in washington. and usually the jokeis that in washington. and usually the joke is that the french will always go on strike in august, but this one started a lot earlier, in april. and there are a series of issues he has to deal with at home when he gets back. he has a very heavy domestic agenda. many praising the fact he delivered the speech in english and
therefore it was that much more powerful in terms of how it was broadcast in the us and the proliferation of it. very clever in many ways, and many are saying he played the whole three days in a very smart way. i would have to agree with that, and this is the thing. literally u—turn on the tv yesterday and this is all that was shown everywhere. if we look at what wasn't achieved, and bloomberg is looking at this, macron thinks trump will pull out of the iran nuclear deal. he hasn't got any inside knowledge, and it is not something they had discussed in meetings, of course they discussed the issue but it was not something he said to him, but he is coming away with nothing
on this issue of iran, or what is your view? it is a very difficult one, because not the entire point of the visit at a big part of the visit was to convince trump that i am not saying the deal is perfect, but don't pull out. if you pull out there is a very big risk iran pulls out in all these years of hard work come to nothing. i don't think he has achieved that, even though two days ago the big talk was making it a better deal. a third way. which was going to be a wider, much wider deal with iran, where iran would have to agree to a lot more than it did in the 2015 deal. yes, and because it would include ballistic missiles. i think the main thing france, germany, the us and the uk agree on is iran's behaviour in the region, and our view is that is why they back the us in terms of the strikes in syria, that is very much an iran story. saying that is something we agree on, iran can't keep doing what it is doing in the
region. however, separate from the nuclear deal, they have complied with everything they are supposed to. if the us does not sign up to that deal, brokered in 2015 by the obama administration and six other countries and united nations, if the us doesn't sign on 12 may, which is the deadline, we could be going back into the old world where sanctions we re into the old world where sanctions were imposed on iran, et cetera. what does that mean, from your perspective? i think there are a couple of things. even if the us doesn't go ahead with the waivers, it doesn't have to mean that the dealfails. i think europe has made its point very clearly, they will not go ahead. they will keep the deal intact, which was a big difference in 2015, that everybody came together and said if you don't do this, we will put sanctions on. they are hoping that because europe is still there, iran doesn't necessarily pull out. it is a big if. worst case scenario, the us goes ahead with it, they are able to lose
ahead with it, they are able to lose a certain amount of oil quite easily. because the us is not going ahead with it, it will not be a million barrels. is this one of the reasons we have seen million barrels. is this one of the reasons we have seen the oil price going up, because of concerns about this? yes, and i think the reality is, and we have talked about this in the past, inventory is have been falling for a good year, and now the market is tight, and when the market is tight any geopolitical problems will skyrocket prices. let's move on. the united kingdom is planning a $1.5 billion artificial intelligence push, a supercomputer at cambridge university, worth 10 million... i was going to say 10,000, but it is 10 million. give us your take on this. this is the uk working with japan and various other countries as well, and it is supposedly pitching the uk and putting it at the forefront in al technology and trying to compete with china. your
thoughts? and france. i think the uk kind of feels it has fallen behind a little bit has a lot of countries are attracting huge amounts of investment. so i think the plan here is us and european tech companies essentially just is us and european tech companies essentiallyjust bringing the investment in. i mean, my only concern, what are you going to do with this? a supercomputer?‘ supercomputer, and i get ai and it is fantastic for data, and especially now that we have vast amounts of data, but none of the article is actually talk about what exactly is achieved. i was reading that businesses will be able to access the supercomputer, and that kind of thing. we will have to watch this space as to how unfolds. the independent has a story which keeps coming to the fore. i was reading this in the guardian a year ago when there were questions about whether we would have to pay to go into europe. 5 euros, 7 euros, whatever it might be. is this one of those fear factor story that keeps coming
to the fore, do you think? you know, when i first saw the story, i thought 70 euros, because it is the headline. and it is not seven for every trip, necessarily, it is for a two year period. which is exactly what the us does with esta. i don't think it is the amount which is the problem of the year, it is the principal. they claim it is for the security reasons. and it may not happen at all, it is all the negotiations. let's have a look at this final story we were discussing. this is reuters, back to oil, saying trump's revenge, us oilfloods europe, posting 0pec and russia. is this about shale? i think the headline is very much to get the clicks, i don't think trump has anything to do with this. this was very much the obama era opening up and exports being allowed. the us is
exporting record volumes, yesterday's data suggested $2.3 million per day. with the price of oil going up, the shale producers could make money when the price was very low. but i think the big difference is, and i think this is something the media will catch on to in the second half of the year, this year the us has huge infrastructure constraints. they don't have enough pipelines. so there will be an issue pretty much by august of this year where growth rates will have to slow down tranent asleep. in the meantime, saudi arabia and russia and others must be enjoying the price of oil at the moment. i was reading an article a couple of days ago which said that oil could spike in the near term if these things ta ke in the near term if these things take place. libya, and so on. where do you feel oil is going? what are we looking at in the near future? we have had a forecast of 90, 42 years.
we have anticipated this spike, not because of geopolitical issues, but demand growth has been fantastic and there has been no investment in oil supplies outside of the us. we have a lwa ys supplies outside of the us. we have always maintained that the spike is coming and geopolitical issues can bring it forward. and the saudi arabia, the price higher with the possibility of a flotation of aramco. i think the ipo will happen when the price is right. that sounds like a when the price is right. that sounds likea game when the price is right. that sounds like a game show. thank you so much for coming in. thanks for watching the briefing. from me, sally bundock, and the rest of the team, goodbye. hello there. well, wednesday brought us classic april weather.
sunny spells, heavy showers and these cumulonimbus clouds built up widely across the country, bringing downpours, hail and thunder and is wonderful weather watch picture shows cumulonimbus clouds decaying in the sunset. showers have been coming in off the atlantic on a fairly stiff west, north—westerly breeze and will continue to stream entering the overnight period in the thursday morning. mainly across the north—west of the uk, elsewhere it will turn dry with clear spells. it will be a chilly start to thursday, temperatures and low to mid single figures. but although a chilly start it will be lovely and bright the thursday morning. lots of sunshine around. showers from the word go across western areas, and they will spread their way eastwards. most of the will become confined to the northern half of the country on thursday afternoon. further south at will stay largely dry with sunny spells. temperatures reaching maybe 17 celsius, very pleasant indeed. now we look to the south—west. this next area of low pressure will move in for friday, bringing increasing amounts of rain the south—western part of the country, increasing breeze as well. elsewhere we are starting a chilly and bright with some sunshine. it looks at this stage the weather will spread across the far north
of england, scotland and northern ireland the day of sunshine and heavy showers, some wintry spells and hail. a chilly day to come, with temperatures of eight to 12 celsius. it will feel cool weather rainfalls. this weekend it is a mixture of of sunshine and showers for most. rain returning to the south—east of england and turning quite windy across the south—east is that rain arrives. this is saturday's picture. friday's rain eventually clearing away from the south—east, potentially a grey day, but elsewhere sunny spells and a few showers. most of those across scotland, northern ireland, maybe northern england, the odd heavy one as well. temperature—wise, not that great compared to last weekend. temperatures of eight to 12 celsius. as we head on in towards sunday, a chilly start, but at least it will be bright for some, with some sunshine. heavy showers developing across northern parts of the country and rain returning the south—eastern parts of england, along with strong and chilly north north—easterly
winds, 50 mph gust could cause some disruption. once again sunday is looking pretty cool across—the—board. hello, this is breakfast, with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. bosses at the hospital treating seriously ill alfie evans defend their staff after what they call a barrage of abuse. last night, judges again rejected a bid by his parents to take him abroad for care, protesters calling themselves alfie's army have been gathering outside alder hey. good morning, it's thursday the 26th of april. also this morning: a pledge to cut plastic pollution. more than a0 major companies sign up to rid the uk of throwaway packaging. from coca—cola to asda, i'll be finding out if some of the countries biggest firms can put plastics before profits.