tv BBC Business Live BBC News April 27, 2018 8:30am-9:00am BST
studio: just time to welcome the news channel viewers for a moment of history, one way or the other, as president moonjae—in of south korea and kimjong—un of north korea stand to attention, states in hand, as they mark the ceremonial planting of a pine tree which we are told is 65 yea rs a pine tree which we are told is 65 years old, which takes us back to the conclusion of the korean war, the conclusion of the korean war, the signing of the armistice. a full peace deal has never been achieved since then for these two countries, this is recognised as they stand on the demarcation line is very much a symbolic moment of coming together, at least in a sense of a spirit of determination to find peace. iamjoined by determination to find peace. i am joined by our asia editor celia hatton, looking at the way in which this is playing out. we are looking from afar and there is a great sense
of positivism, optimism, hope. we have heard from the white house that there is hope that this is leading to something bigger still under discussion about north korea's nuclear plans and programme is on the table. it looks very positive but plenty would see this in a different light, particularly in south korea? absolutely. hope is the keyword. if you look at the opinion polls and south korea they tell an interesting story, the vast majority of people were encouraging these talks to go forward, they wanted them to go forward, they saw no reason for them to stop. however, the vast majority of people also think that a lasting peace deal is probably unlikely and the leader of north korea, kim jong—un, probably unlikely and the leader of north korea, kimjong—un, probably will not be able to carry through with denuclearisation. they are looking back to history, deals like this have been signed before, we have had summit like this before, but not like this at the border. we
have seen nothing like this before. fascinating details about this pi’ocess , fascinating details about this process, nothing has been left to chance through the day. the two leaders are pouring water on to the tree, it is worth noting that the water comes from two different rivers, absolutely down the middle, mutual equality through the course of these ceremonials. that will make the north koreans quite happy, what they have pushed for all along before agreeing to the talks was to before agreeing to the talks was to be seen on an equal level with south korea and also on an equal level with the united states looking forward , with the united states looking forward, that is what reason it is thought that the north korean leader, kim jong—un, pushed thought that the north korean leader, kimjong—un, pushed forward the direct talks with donald trump. it is quite literally engraved in stone. we can talk about realism, a degree of scepticism and cynicism, but that is now via, that is a permanent reminder of what these two
men have done. —— that is now there. these sorts of moments can have a genuine impact. it was fascinating listening to kim jong—un as genuine impact. it was fascinating listening to kimjong—un as he talked in his introductory remarks, having made that long walk to go and greet all be greeted by moonjae—in, about the thoughts going through his head. that is an emotional moment which can have an impact and you cannot rehearse it? many have been surprised about how honest and forthright he seems to have been in his talks. he has not been using the language of previous generations, he seems to be much more direct in his speech. these things all add up, this political symbolism is important because it might go to addressing the fears mentioned in those opinion polls ijust mentioned, the fears of people in south korea and around the world but
maybe north korea is not being quite upfront in its desire for real change. so they will hope they can push this, in a way that makes it very difficult to roll back, in a sense. but top of the list is the nuclear problem, as it should be, eve ryo ne nuclear problem, as it should be, everyone will recognise security is the single most important thing for any nation or any people. we are talking about 65 years since the conflict, let alone any resolution of it. there are myriad issues and problems, whether it is over defectors, people held back in north korea and vice versa, that have been intractable for many, many years? absolutely. a lot of people will be looking at the wording of anyjoint agreement that comes out of this summit. lots of sceptics are saying that these two men can only agree so much between their countries.
really, what we need to do is get other bigger players on board, the united states, china involved into any long—lasting agreement. we carry on looking at these pictures of moonjae—in and kim jong—un at the ceremonial stage of the day, right in the middle of procedures. it will move back to some business and discussion once the family photo has taken place, then a ceremonial dinner later in then a ceremonial dinner later in the day. part of the rationale, surely, has to be the economic situation facing north korea at the moment, and we arejoined in the studio by james huge moment, and we arejoined in the studio byjames huge ‘s de jager james hughes, a chief market a nalyst. james hughes, a chief market analyst. this country is, frankly, in desperate need of economic improvement and eight? absolutely, and this has to be part of the reason that something this historic has happened. just over the last few
months or so, looking at the way the markets have reacted to this kind of news, and we have seen rhetoric escalated from washington as well, and the fact this came along so quickly. just a month or two months ago we were looking at low figures oi'i ago we were looking at low figures on the index on the back of conflict issues, and now there is this total change around. this is how the whole issue with north korea can change and changes before, it completely flips around. we are all looking positively now. it will be interesting to see how the rest of the world and the markets open up on the world and the markets open up on the back of this, washington will be watching this very closely, as will wall street. definitely the overall economic issues with north korea, that has to be a reason why some of this has been pushed forward. as the two leaders are getting to
know you by the minute at the moment, so far, so good in terms know you by the minute at the morr laasasﬁsogn “53 talk l7 5353— b- 12: egg. 5.2.4 eff—yua— eeg'eg grace-lam ———— —— they have 11 1121 1—11 1111—141.— 11111. 1.11.11m ———— —— they have clearly had 11 111.1 111 1111151.— 11111. 111—111—m ———— —— they have clearly had an korea, they have clearly had an impact. that is the case here, the us has been very tough on north korea. ever since donald trump has beenin korea. ever since donald trump has been in powerwe korea. ever since donald trump has been in power we know that north korea has been an issue globally for a numberof years, korea has been an issue globally for a number of years, notjust since president trump has been in place, but it has been president trump's administration that has really pushed this, he has pushed the sanctions on north korea and whether it isa sanctions on north korea and whether it is a direct result of art, the economy on north korea has really struggled and now we are moving forward in unprecedented areas. i think forward in unprecedented areas. ithinki forward in unprecedented areas. i think i would doubt that the sanctions have not gone as far as they could have. china is the driver when it comes to the north korean economy, they are responsible for
90%, the vast majority, of north korean trade and give north korea the vast majority of its food and fuel aid and china has not done some key things. it has not sealed off but very porous border between china and north korea and has not done things like stopping the north korean a—line from flying into beijing. those flights continue. sanctions have had some kind of impact but some analysts think they could have gone much further —— has not done things like stopping the north korean a—line. some analysts think there are still can't they could play if they wanted bush sanctions further. frankly, the koreas are caught in a bigger web in terms of interest in the region, so getting to this point is a minor miracle, ina getting to this point is a minor miracle, in a sense? it is amazing to watch these two men take this walk together, as you said to really get to know each other a bit better. many other people are watching this
walk, including people on the sideline in japan, walk, including people on the sideline injapan, in china, in the united states and the rest of the region. i think lasting united states and the rest of the region. ithink lasting peace united states and the rest of the region. i think lasting peace will have to involves these other bigger players. just getting a line at beijing has hailed the courage and leadership coming from the two men you see in your picture, they are pushing the story, forcing the pace. if we look at this in terms of the bigger picture, the big picture for kim jong—un will be a meeting with president trump. in the grand scheme of things, does this fit into the category they started before the main banquet, or is it bigger than that? i think it is a bit bigger than that, it is setting the turn, setting —— setting the tone. if they can come to a tangible agreement and the language we will see in the
joint agreement later, if it has some real meat to it, it will push the process forward. yesterday donald trump mentioned in an interview on fox news that maybe his talks would not go ahead, he said several times he might just talks would not go ahead, he said several times he mightjust walk out ofa summit several times he mightjust walk out of a summit if he did not feel it was going anywhere. i think he was really making it a bit unsure and i would guess he did that to put the pressure on kim jong—un would guess he did that to put the pressure on kimjong—un during this summer pressure on kimjong—un during this summer ‘s to try to demonstrate he is serious about some kind of positive engagement. —— jeering this summit. james, you talked about a bit ofan summit. james, you talked about a bit of an uptick in a business sense about what is going on, do you think some of the multinationals in the world a re some of the multinationals in the world are waiting for the moment if not £2 band to get in on the opening
up not £2 band to get in on the opening up of not £2 band to get in on the opening upofa not £2 band to get in on the opening up of a new market? there will be a feeling that this is a major opportunity notjust feeling that this is a major opportunity not just for south korean companies and companies in the region but in the us as well. this is a step in the case of saying the border is now open, north korea is open to free trade across the board, we know how much trade wars have dominated the world open last few weeks and months, so this is a step in the right direction. there will be lots of companies thinking there is a big opportunity here, not least the us companies. you mentioned, celia, about the fact that the us are watching this very closely and donald trump is really the next step in these talks. it is those steps from a market and business point of view, those steps with the us, with washington, that will really see whether this is open to the rest of the world, not just
that region. all of this is very carefully choreographed, i will read out a few details as to the march that the two leaders have been on for the last few minutes. this has been an opportunity to walk together to the footbridge which we saw and the signpost of the demarcation line as they sit down for more conversation. the footbridge itself, i am told, got its name from the un command when it was built over a marsh to shorten the route taken by the neutral nations supervisory commission as the armistice agreement was concluded in 1953, that bridge was widened as part of preparations for this summit. for them to walk right up to the demarcation line itself is to signify, we are told, the arrival of peace on the korean peninsular and the era of cooperation and
prosperity. celia, if we reflect back 11 years now and then 18 years to the last two summits, was there as much symbolism, as much of a sense of building permanent reminders as to what is going on as we are getting today?” reminders as to what is going on as we are getting today? i don't think there was, i was in beijing for both of those summits and at the time it felt like there was less at stake, actually, i think. felt like there was less at stake, actually, ithink. north korea, the sense or the tone was that north korea was a much more desperate country. it did not have nuclear weapons at that time. that really is the key. it is why many people believe that north korea, kim jong—un, has the confidence now to wa nt to jong—un, has the confidence now to want to engage with other leaders in direct talks, because he feels his country has reached a certain level. back then in those previous summits
i think it was felt, really, that north korea was a regional problem to be dealt with but it did not pose the same international threat that it could pose now. i think that is why the tenor of this has changed, the stakes are much, much higher. they are in a global sense. i wonder for kim jong—un, who we often look at, we do not know that much about north korea, it structures and the political make—up, we see a man sitting atop a nation, who bestrides it as almost a regal figure, but presumably he will have plenty of political challenges, there is a political challenges, there is a political risk in him making that move? it is very, very risky. and this isjust as big a risk for kim jong—un, this is such an unprecedented move by a north korean leader in modern times, so there must be such an enormous risk from his side, really, from his own personal view he is sitting atop
this nation without really any challenge whatsoever. this could really be a change in that. not to say that kim jong—un is about to be undera say that kim jong—un is about to be under a leadership challenge but there is a big risk which comes with any move like this. how much do you think it is understood about the fabric behind the kimjong—un leadership? a lot of it goes back to speculation. that raise its head. there are clues we get once in awhile. let's look back at the murder of his havant brother. most people believe north korea was behind it. they must been some reason why the havant brother of the north korean leader should not be alive. there are things we have —— happening behind the scenes. we are seeing quite abrupt changes in military officials who were swapped in and out of place. clearly things
are going on behind the scenes, especially when kim jong—un first came into power about a year after he was first in power. there were quite a few changes. it is difficult to know if he is just a confident man who decided he wanted to place, or ifzszer/“e £33332 := there moretrea fherous ha'ppefnﬁggﬁ there more'trea fherous ha'ppefriﬁggﬁ afeet. just there more'trea fherous ha'ppefrihggﬁ afeet. just know. there more'trea fherous ha'ppefrihggﬁ % just = know. we ‘ what they ‘what they are saying there know what they are saying there either. it would be fascinating to get some sense of the detail. are they talking on a personal level? are they getting into some of the nitty—gritty can —— ? are they getting into some of the nitty—gritty can ——? we talk about the industrial complex, which was a great opportunity for bringing some financial reward into north korea. it is an industrial centre were north korean ‘s work to the benefit of both countries, effectively, but particularly south korean business. that was suspended 18 months ago. i guess they would be very keen to get
that up and running again as soon as possible? absolutely. we are talking border business opportunities are going to be key. we can't straightaway say south korea are now talking about enormous amount of business. this is a very small step at the start of what is hopefully a long road. we are looking at those border business opportunities that help both countries. from an economic standpoint, that is what the north koreans will want to hear. anything they hear within these talks has to be beneficial towards them. we know that to the extent kim jong—un isn't going to change his whole personality to only help the south koreans. it has to be give and take. all of those border business opportunities are going to be massive talking points for not just south korea but japan and all the
businesses in the region. our correspondents would not forgive us if we didn't inject some scepticism on what is going on here. the chances of this blossoming have to be seen in the perspective of the past and the challenges that lie and come from every direction. there is a huge sense this will go nowhere for —— from many people across south korea in particular? i was looking at these pictures. he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders. this has been his entire political career. he campaigned for president on the basis he wanted direct talks. look where he is now. they can't be more direct than this. he is really the one to push this agenda and bush ‘s agenda forward. he has got the united states pushing behind him, the eyes of china and japan. there isa the eyes of china and japan. there is a lot of scepticism that this will go nowhere. as we have said, we
have had some ats not to the same degree but summits like this before. during the clinton years, there was a big deal with kimjong—un's father. that deal went haywire for various reasons. both sides blamed the other for the deal‘s breakdown. but yes, there is a lot of pressure on president moon to really make sure that this time we achieve something more permanent, more tangible. but frankly, there is a lot of scepticism. last year, north korea conducted its biggest nuclear test ever. it was only weeks ago that president trump was threatening essentially, you want to take on nuclear capability, see what you get. that mood swing can go both ways. the pressure goes back onto donald trump with this as well. with the success of these talks, or what
we see from the outcome. the pressure would move directly to washington, directly to donald trump about him getting the talks in place and the success of those going forward. the pressure now lies in these initial stages. but 33 move on, there - to be an then move on, there has to be an enormous amount of pressure on donald trump to be the presidential figure that the world has wanted him to be since he came to power. and actually make something of these talks. if anything, there is even more scepticism over whether talks will even happen with donald trump, and if they do, what comes out of them. there is enormous pressure. the white house statement does say, we look forward to continuing robust discussions about preparation for the summit. as barack obama left office, he did say, "your biggest issue on your plate will be north korea." absolutely. there are two
schools of thought. whether donald trump has hindered or helped this process. yes, you did push the idea of sanctions. and yes, you forced china's hand in order to force china to enforce those sanctions, and really put the pressure on to beijing to really help it shut down the north korean economy, as much as it can. on the other hand, was donald trump not just it can. on the other hand, was donald trump notjust a few months ago to eating things like, rocket man, calling kim jong—un ago to eating things like, rocket man, calling kimjong—un rocket man, which many people thought exacerbated the situation. great use of the word gold card. very big changes afoot in terms of mine said even at the moment. just one other point we might make. this looks very casual and relaxed, which is
important. it will be more businesslike in due course. the wives of the two leaders coming to the play later. there has been some discussion about how preordained that is. we understand kimjong—un's wife is now on her way, as if there was a last—minute thought. that will be important. we are back to mood music, back to personal relations. yes, it is about establishing a real rapport between the sides. really breaking the ice. i think it is really interesting that the detail of other the wives would attend the dinner was laughed until the last minute. i don't know of that was political theatre, added been decided long in advance? i get the impression it was the north korean side that was holding out as to whether kim jong—un‘s wife would
attend the dinner. it was announced today she would attend. she was coming to the site. i don't know why they decided to hold back that one detail, whether it was just to give the media something to talk about after watching a long discussion between these men. when we hear detail like, in the main meeting room, the table built specifically for this event has a width of 2080 millimetres —— 2018 millimetres, it is hard to imagine an evening has been left to chance. this is choreography to the nth degree. this isa choreography to the nth degree. this is a big prjob. as well as a summit. there will be business talks and the hardline facts. but all of this we are watching is the prjob. it isa this we are watching is the prjob. it is a case of making north korea look in line with the other
countries in the world, bringing them to the global table. and saying, this is where we are now, we are in line with other countries. it isa pr are in line with other countries. it is a prjob. the white situation will be a similar thing. maybe there is that last—minute aspect. but that is that last—minute aspect. but that is what happens when you see summits like this, with every other country in the world. look at the us, the uk, husbands and wives will be there. fundamentally it is a prjob. to say north korea, this is a good news story. it is an extensive outside broadcast as well! they are on the footbridge. this has certainly been worked out to a pretty complete level. celia, just asa pretty complete level. celia, just as a last thought, as a day, from what you have seen, your impression?
i think it's been incredibly successful so far. we mentioned the planning that went into the summit. we have also seen a lot of unscripted moments that really underlined the fact that it seems both sides really are quite genuine. whether we get something really concrete in the months going forward , concrete in the months going forward, i don't know. even in the moment when kim jong—un was walking over that line and the two men grasped hands, in a seemingly unscripted moment, they stepped briefly back onto north korean soil and then went in for a talks. we heard shortly after they had some real talks. they have discussed denuclearisation, which is a good sign. there will still be plenty of sceptics. this has been an historic moment. it continues through the day. we will keep covering it on the bbc for you. good morning. not much to get you in
the friday feeling weather—wise. lots of rain moving its way across england and wales. further north, scotla nd england and wales. further north, scotland and northern ireland, a little bit brighter with some sunshine. the risk of heavy showers developing this afternoon. the reason for the wet weather is this area of low pressure which has been moving in through the morning. it is pushing further north. it is not going to quite reach northumberland, durham and cumbria. some hazy sunshine here. for scotland and northern ireland, much brighter. there will be heavy and fun read showers. slow moving showers this afternoon. england and wales there will be drier spells in the middle pa rt will be drier spells in the middle part of the day. try in the west later. pretty cool with the rain. maximum temperatures getting up to nine to 12 degrees. this evening and
tonight we keep a lot of cloud. the rain gradually clears. it will be quite a slow start on saturday. the rain and cloud in the south—east. it will get brighter as the week and goes on. temperatures still below the average for the end of april. this is saturday. the risk of heavy and slow moving sharers across scotland. particularly the north—east. maximum temperatures on saturday, nine to 12 degrees. again, it will feel on the cool side. going into sunday, the wet weather that we had on saturday will continues to move away. it will be a little bit more settled. drier conditions for many. added a around. some showers in southern parts. otherwise some brighter spells. a bit of sunshine.
later in the day this area rain spreading to the far south—east of england. temperatures getting into double figures if you are lucky. into next week, we have this area of low pressure moving its way out of france. some wet weather in the south east of england. strong winds on the east anglia and coastline. really quite a messy day on monday. rain spreading from the south—east. that is one thing we will keep a close eye on. goodbye. hello, it's friday, it's nine o'clock. i'm chloe tilley — welcome to the programme. an iconic moment in the troubled history of north and south korea — the north korean leader crosses the border for frank talks on denuclearisation. in the last few moments, the two leaders planted a commemorative tree and they're now holding historic one—to—one talks in full view of the cameras. new rules mean people using porn sites will soon have to give personal details to verify their age. it's designed to protect children, but will it work?