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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  November 2, 2018 8:30am-9:00am GMT

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this is business live from bbc news with maryam moshiri and victoria fritz. china's biggest tech firm is due to reveal its financial results — how much is a trade war with the us hurting alibaba? live from london, that's our top story on friday 2nd november. china's alibaba — with a market value of approaching $400 billion — posts results later — we ask how exposed it is to trade tensions with the us. we'll also look at the likelihood of a trade deal between the us and china — after reports president trump is drafting a pact for the two nations. the european markets have opened in positive territory. and we'll be getting the inside track on those reports about a financial services deal between the eu and uk —
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how much substance is behind them? our business editor simonjack will be here. as british spy agency gchq opens its own instagram account, we want to know, what advice you would give it on creating the perfect post? let us know — just use the hashtag #bbcbizlive hello and welcome to business live. delaet us know your instagram secrets. for now... we start with alibaba — it's china's answer to amazon and ebay. and since it floated in new york four years ago it has become one of the world's most valuable technology companies. but results out in a few hours‘ time could confirm things are getting tougher for the e—commerce giant. alibaba's shares have lost around a third of their value since their peak this summer. so what's going on?
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alibaba dominates china's online shopping market — the world's biggest. 75% of its revenue comes from inside china. but china's economy is slowing — the latest growth figures were the weakest in almost a decade. and alibaba has struggled to expand internationally. its overseas site aliexpress accounts for just 5% of revenue founderjack ma — who currently tops china's rich list — is retiring as chairman to focus on his charitable commitments. he has warned of "turbulence and instability" because of the us—china trade war — but says alibaba will find new opportunities. with me is hussein kanji, founding partner of hoxton ventures, a european venture capital firm based in london. good morning. investors are going to scare with this report for any sign
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of wea kness scare with this report for any sign of weakness whatsoever from this company. where are they likely to find it? i think it's all going to be in consumer retail. this is not a very big quarterfor be in consumer retail. this is not a very big quarter for alibaba be in consumer retail. this is not a very big quarterfor alibaba because this is not a big shopping season yet. singles day in china happens on november 11. we will see any sign of wea kness november 11. we will see any sign of weakness through the report, through the earnings and i think it will impact all the chinese internet stocks. bid 6.596 impact all the chinese internet stocks. bid 6.5% growth impact all the chinese internet stocks. bid 6.596 growth rate in china, there is lots of scepticism all the time when numbers come out of china because, guess what? it came bang on target, didn't they, with growth? it is slowing but it's still extraordinarily fast compared to the likes of the uk. yeah, it's a huge economy and an economy that has transformed over the last 20 years. you don't know how much the numbers have been massaged and nobody knows what's going on. these reports are a better leading indicator of what's going on on the ground. of course, these companies are viewed more
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sceptically by regulators, consumers, investors. do you think the party is over for the consumers, investors. do you think the party is overfor the big consumers, investors. do you think the party is over for the big tech firms around the world? this has not been a great earnings season. i think almost every single big tech company have missed in some degree. almost everyone is down 30—50%. everyone has very high expectations for these companies. the companies are doing phenomenally well, but whether they are living up to expectations is a big question. one of the other things we discussed was the international side of the business. at the moment aliexpress only accounts for 5% of sales. do they even need an international sales strategy? china, the market they are so dominant in, it's still only opening up a, a fraction of people have access to the internet and disposable income to go shopping online. people have said, unlike amazon, which can focus on domestic
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market and be fine, alibaba have said they have growth headwind. they have guided the market, saying they needed to go international, which is why i think everyone pays attention to the numbers. it's been disappointingly low. . what do you make of the succession plan forjack ma? it was the house that is jack ma built, so what happens when he leaves ? built, so what happens when he leaves? it's a good question comedies still young. i'm surprised. most founders of tech company ‘s don't like to go but we saw a successful transition of microsoft. we had a rocky bump but now it's in very good track. these companies have to build multi—generational enterprises if they want to be successful long—term. enterprises if they want to be successful long-term. we'll leave it there. thank you very much for coming in. have a lovely weekend. thank you. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. the stock market value of apple has dipped below a trillion dollars. in its financial statement for the three months to september, apple said revenues jumped 20% and profits were up 31%, but warned sales for the next quarter — the crucial holiday season — would probably be lower than investors were expecting. hackers appear to have compromised
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and published private messages from at least 81,000 facebook users' accounts. the perpetrators told the bbc russian service that they had details from a total of 120 million accounts, which they were attempting to sell, although there are reasons to be sceptical about that figure. facebook said its security had not been compromised. can macquarie group retain its lustre after the loss of two of the most prominent minds infinance? that's the question troubling investors as they digest the latest set of results at the australian investment bank. a banker known as "brains" ben brazil is quitting just months after his boss, the chief nicholas moore, announced his intention to retire. ami
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am i the mind as janmaat am i the mind asjanmaatlj am i the mind as janmaat i wrote that script in, sorry! asian markets have been given a boost by the news that president xijinping has had a telephone conversation with president trump, raising hopes of a thawing in trade tensions between the world's biggest economies. and according to a report by bloomberg, the us has already started drafting terms of a deal ahead of the g2 summit in argentina later this month. joining us now is our china correspondent, stephen mcdonell. reason for optimism, then? yes, well, on this bleak day in beijing, as i'm sure you can see behind me, some positive news of at least a bit of movement on the china us trade warfront, of movement on the china us trade war front, because of these reports from bloomberg that american officials have been asked to draw up an agreement beseeching xi jinping
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and donald trump to sign off as early as later this month in argentina at the meeting. will it be a sort of general commitment to keep talking or something like that, or could this agreement possibly be, right, we'll stop doing this, we will stop doing that, pull down those tariffs, pull—down bills and actually achieve some sort of tarried breakthrough? either way, actually achieve some sort of tarried breakthrough? eitherway, if anything like that is on the cards, it will be all eyes on that g20 meeting to see if the leader of the world's top two economies can sort out their differences on the trade front. thank you very much indeed. let's ta ke let's take a look at the market now. asia stocks shot up to three—week highs on friday, while the dollar softened, on reports us president donald trump is taking steps to resolve a damaging trade war with china. of course, asian markets are particularly sensitive to trade wars, so the hope of a resolution has boosted sentiment. and samira hussain has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. european stocks are tracking gains
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in asia. the big story on friday will bejobs. the latest us unemployment figures will be released and it is the last look at america's labour market before tuesday's midterm elections. now, economists aren't expecting the unemployment rate to change from its current 3.7%. what everyone will be looking at closely is wage growth and if that has increased by a significant amount. other things happening, well, earnings of course continue and oil giant exxon mobil will be reporting. and it comes at a time in which crude oil prices have touched highest levels since the 2014 oil price collapse. also reporting earnings, chinese retail giant aliba ba. indeed. joining us is james bevan, chief investment officer at ccla investment management. hello. good morning. hello. let's
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talk about general market. european stocks are now on track for the best week since 2016. why? there's a great deal of optimism that mr trump will be much kinder to the chinese. frankly, i think this is much more to do with banning some market froth before we have the mid—term elections. i'm not talking that mr trump is genuinely interested in peace with china right now. his expectation of what is their trade is1 million miles away expectation of what is their trade is 1 million miles away from where we are at the moment. i suspect more trouble once the mid—term elections are out of the way. let's talk about apple. they came out with results last night. apple interestingly has 110w last night. apple interestingly has now lost its $1 trillion status. what is very clear is that the sales of the iphone are declining. we expected that but the way they are managing to keep the numbers is by having higher prices consumers faced with higher prices say, oh, we don't wa nt to
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with higher prices say, oh, we don't want to buy another one, we have a perfectly good one. apple had said going forward they want us how many handsets they are selling. that is taken as bad news by the market because the market think they are hiding something from them. we don't like the fact that those numbers will no longer be available. the big thatis will no longer be available. the big that is now on what will apple do next? they will continue selling on to people who already hold iphones. the apps, services, add—ons. understanding what apple are going to do for contents, i think, will be an interesting issue. for now i think the share price will go lower. i'm expecting $210 as at that share price. somewhat below the current price. somewhat below the current price. thank you very much. we'll see you later. can't wait. thank you, ladies. what a flirt! still to come, what was behind all the talk of a post—brexit deal on financial services? we're joined by our business editor simonjack. you're with business live from bbc news. cracks are showing at hmrc, as tax officials struggle
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with a huge workload — this is according to mps today. according to a public accounts committee report, tariffs and resources have been diverted to deal with customs and border demands, which has left hmrc facing tough choices about its other work. victoria hewson is counsel to the international trade and competition unit. how will these cracks, as they've been described, affect taxpayers? well, i think the interesting thing about the report is that it's really focused on issues like errors and forwarding tax credits, customer service, like times two and so calls to the helpline, and also the standard of employees through the paye standard of employees through the pay e syste m. standard of employees through the paye system. to be honest, while clearly brexit and border management
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concerns are important, are taking resources , concerns are important, are taking resources, really this is more an indicator that our tax system is far too complicated. managing and applying for all the reliefs, the tax code is just incredibly complicated to manage. perhaps that's really where the focus should be in terms of making everything a bit more manageable for taxpayers and four hmrc by simply buying the system. so, victoria, what is the answer, do you think? well, part of the answer, actually, is intended to be universal credit. so one of the issues highlighted in this report is that the tax credit system is very much susceptible to errors and fraud and infact much susceptible to errors and fraud and in fact in his evidence to the committee, the chief executive of hmrc said that it is a problem inherent in the design of tax credits. it's to be hoped that universal credit, which is designed to be more reflective of the way
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people actually earn and spend money, will help to eliminate those and infact money, will help to eliminate those and in fact the tax credit system is intended to be phased out, which is pa rt intended to be phased out, which is part of the reason why, u nfortu nately, part of the reason why, unfortunately, the resources being dedicated to sort of getting rid of errors and fraud in tax credits has been de—prioritised. errors and fraud in tax credits has been de-prioritised. ok, victoria, we will leave it there if we can. i just want to share one more story with you. paddy power profits are slipping on us fantasy sports. plenty more on that story and others on the bbc business live page. just head to the website for that story. you are watching businesslike. 0ur top story. is alibaba about to see a change in fortunes? let's look at the markets and see how they are
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faring. european markets are up. we have seen a slight dip in the pound over the last few hours. it is still trading at £1.30 against the dollar. we have had some news from donald trump saying he has had a good uncle with the president of china. some out there perhaps being made on those trade tension talks. i like those trade tension talks. ilikea those trade tension talks. i like a good funkel! don't we all?! it is time to look at the big business and economics news. it is time to look at the big business and economics newsm it is time to look at the big business and economics news. it was the week in which we saw google staff walk—out and philip green was named in parliament as the businessman at the centre of the metoo scandal. we also heard that a deal, no deal, where are we on
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financial services? simon jack joins us. financial services? simon jack joins us. where are we with the brexit deal? lots of rumours swirling around this week. what is the truth? we have got a little bit ahead of ourselves. there were reports the deal had been struck in financial services between the uk, london being the biggest financial centre in europe, and the rest of the eu in that we were going to have this equivalence regime. what that means is the eu say we believe your standards and regulations are good enough for us to give you access to our markets. that has been on the table since the beginning. equivalence. the problem with that is that the eu can add any time with 30 days notice think —— say, we don't think you qualify any more. that is not stable enough forjp morgan, goldman sachs etc. the new development was that we are thinking of having a new way of having a non—unilateral revocation of that privilege. there will be somebody
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said up. they would talk about it. have some kind of arbitration. it was not —— it would not be time limited. having said that, the treasury say we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. the nature of that body that will decide these issues, you have got all those problems you always have. who's in charge that relationship? i think that while there are some positive noises it is premature to say we have cracked that particular not. mark carney was facing difficult questions over brexit and what it might mean after not raising rates yesterday? he didn't raise rates yesterday. the question is this. what happens if we get a disorderly brexit and there is chaos and disruption? what does the bank of england do? there has been an assumption that in a situation like that the bank of england would lower rates to give everybody some breathing space, loosen monetary.
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what he said yesterday was, don't bank on that. if, for example, we get a supply shop, stuff is not coming in, sterling will fall and therefore you will have inflationary pressures . therefore you will have inflationary pressures. if you have got inflation going up it is not appropriate to cut interest rates. don't bank on the fact the bank of england will cut rates if we have a disorderly exit. 0n the question of cutting demand, people may say, i don't want to buy anything because i feel uncertain about the future. they may bea uncertain about the future. they may be a problem with supply because the stuff you want to buy can't get into the country. it may depend on... don't bank on the bank of england. that is worrying! let's talk about someone that is worrying! let's talk about someone else coming to the rescue. jim ratcliffe, britain's biggest man. tell us more? he made his fortune in a big chemical company
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called any us. he has got a dream of building an off—road vehicle. —— any us. building an off—road vehicle. —— any us. the land rover iconic car no longer made in the uk. he thinks it isa longer made in the uk. he thinks it is a shame. he wants to build one of its own. a pet project. twin that with ford who have got an engine factory in bridgend in wales. they currently make engines for some of the jaguar models. that contract comes to an end in 2020. 1100 jobs at risk in wales. here is a guy who wa nts to at risk in wales. here is a guy who wants to build a car. here is a factory that may not have engines to build any more. it is an elegant solution to a problem from many angles. everybody is happy. very early stages. i have been trying to get in touch with the company this morning. they are not confirming it but nobody is denying it. talks at an early stage. sounds like a relationship about to blossom. let's talk about google. not a great relationship with its staff right
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now. staff walk—out yesterday over the treatment of women. what is this about? what happened was the guy who invented android, it emerged that he walked away with $90 million of a payoff. despite the fact there were allegations of sexual misconduct and impropriety. which he denies. which he denies. google said it had fired dozens he denies. google said it had fired d oze ns of he denies. google said it had fired dozens of executives because of complaints by employees. what this has brought to the surface is that silicon valley has a bit of a sexism problem. it has many more complaints as an industry than other in survey data. what you saw the other day was google employees around the world from singapore to san francisco walking out. pretty unprecedented for a company like that. they want changes. 0ne for a company like that. they want changes. one of the real nubs the issueis changes. one of the real nubs the issue is you have to have something
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called forced arbitration. that means if you have got a complaint, you were forced into an internal process. that thrashes out some sort of deal. 0ften process. that thrashes out some sort of deal. often that deal is not disclosed. we saw the nondisclosure agreement earlier in the week. you mentioned philip green. allegations he denies. he doesn't deny the existence of nondisclosure agreements. it is a zeitgeist moment. the culture of work, what is appropriate. and what is appropriate for companies in terms of how much they keep this stuff quiet? n das they keep this stuff quiet? ndas came about originally because companies wanted to keep their own corporate secrets. so somebody doesn't walk—out with the recipe. they are incredibly widespread now. in silicon valley if you have got an idea you don't even have a cup of coffee with someone about your idea with that everyone signing a nondisclosure agreement. they are everywhere. no one really thought this was an appropriate use of them. when you have got credible, serious
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issues on staff complaints, everyone wa nts to issues on staff complaints, everyone wants to sign an nda. people are wondering whether that culture is one of lack of transparency. i think a lot of people thinking that it is. let's hope it comes to an end. precisely. thank you. in a moment of the business pages. first, a quick reminder of how to get in touch. stay up—to—date with all the business news as it happens on the bbc business live site. and we want to hear from you. bbc business live site. and we want to hearfrom you. get bbc business live site. and we want to hear from you. get involved. bbc business live site. and we want to hearfrom you. get involved. 0n twitter... and you can find us on facebook. business live on tv and online. what you need to know when you need to know. earlier on we asked you to tell us
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what advice you would give to the intelligence agency gchq. they have joined instagram. they are posting photos. instagram is a minefield. victoria is better on this than i am. how do you make your instagram profile foreign and attractive? we asked you to give advice to gchq. you have tweeted. finbar says, you know what will happen, an innocent picture and in the background some major story. sounds like my life! peters says why not welcome to the machine from pink floyd? david lee in the united states doesn't care what they do as long as they don't start following him on instagram.” think start following him on instagramlj think they already are. james bevan from ccla investment management joins us to discuss. you are on instagram?” you are on instagram? i have an account but i don't use it. i am one
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ofa account but i don't use it. i am one of a very large number who open accounts in a moment of enthusiasm and forget all about it. should gchq be opening these social media outlets ? be opening these social media outlets? it is an intelligence agency. it is government communications and they do remarkably little communicating. we know they monitor everything we say and do in the ether. therefore, it is not unreasonable that we should have a little bit of a throwback to see what baer up two. they have an interesting challenge in recruiting top level staff. how many of them really wa nt top level staff. how many of them really want to go into gchq? i think they probably want to put on a human front of people leaving university will say, that looks like quite a fun place to go, naghouj i should apply. i would've loved to have worked for the british spy agencies. sally says our secrets are already known. if you want to keep it secret, either from yourself.
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known. if you want to keep it secret, eitherfrom yourself. that is george orwell. it is a good quote. ikea is going to start opening small stores in city centres. that is interesting. a lot of people are put off going to ikea because they are miles away. and they don't have a car. if you pull apart the ikea results. they have been successful online. they say this is not about responding to amazon. this is about responding to the way that customers want to do business. the second part is a recognition that more people live in cities. people want to go to a small store format. they don't have a motor car. this is how it is quite work. lovely to have you on. see you in ikea later on. other furniture stores are also available. that's it from business live today. there will be more business news throughout the day on the bbc live web page and on world business report. we'll see you again tomorrow. —— next week. happy friday. bye—bye. good morning. it has been another
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cold and frosty start to the day. temperatures from any below freezing. it has been a clear and a sunny start. and that is really because we have got a ridge of high pressure for most of us. towards the west this area of low pressure, the re m na nts of west this area of low pressure, the remnants of hurricane 0scar, moving closer and closer. it will throw in some cloud across northern ireland and the west of scotland. making the sunshine turn hazy. it should remain dry. the rain not arriving until the evening. for most of the sunshine will continue into the afternoon. maximum temperatures getting up to nine to 12 degrees. through this evening the rain will gradually move its way into northern ireland, spreading into scotland as well. the wind picking up. there will be games developing in the north—west. the clearer skies would be towards central and eastern areas. that is where again it could turn chilly
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overnight. we have got some yellows developing in northern and western areas. not as cold here. temperatures staying at around seven to8 temperatures staying at around seven to 8 degrees. just about freezing towards the south east. going into the weekend, this is saturday. remnants of hurricane 0scar moving towards iceland. these weather fronts will move their way in. the isobars close together. quite windy for all of us. the rain quite heavy, especially in western scotland and northern ireland. it will move its way into the far north—west of england, west wales. dry with sunshine towards central and eastern areas on saturday. quite a windy day. these are the winss. —— winds temperatures not too low. around 12 to 15 celsius. if you're heading out on saturday evening for the fireworks displays and bonfires, there will be rain in northern and
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western pa rt of there will be rain in northern and western part of the uk. try to watch england and wales. by sunday we could see some rain to watch wales, north—west england and the midlands. elsewhere it should be dry. we have got this rain on sunday which is going to affect south—west england through wales, perhaps the midlands into northern part of england. that will stay in that area as we go through sunday evening. for the south and east dry with bright skies. much drier and lighter winds across scotland and northern ireland. bye—bye. hello, it's friday, it's nine o'clock, i'm joanna gosling, welcome to the programme. former home secretary amber rudd was let down by her officials, according to an inquiry into her resignation over the windrush scandal. there were a series of leaks during the past year at quite a high level that we re definitely intended to embarrass me. we'll talk to a man who spent six years as a special adviser to former prime minister gordon brown about what it's like to advise high profile politicians.
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how unhealthy is your high street? a new league table says the state of your high street can affect your health, with people living in areas with the best ones living on average two and a half years longer. the leader of syrian humanitarian group the white helmets tells this programme the international community has failed the syrian people.
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