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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  February 4, 2019 8:30am-9:01am GMT

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this is business live from bbc news with ben thompson and sally bundock. as the crisis in venezuela deepens, we look at the prospects for the country's economy and the people living there. live from london, that's our top story on monday 4th february. once latin america's richest economy, venezuela is now in freefall, with inflation running in the millions of percent, and oil exports plunging. we will assess what happens next. also in the programme: low—cost airline ryanair posts a loss for the three months to december, blaming fierce competition for driving down prices. and european markets are looking
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like this ahead of a lull in the brexit negotiations. we will look at all the details and what is moving the numbers. we have all heard of ebay, the global e—commerce marketplace, which supports more than 200,000 small companies in the uk. it is gauging the mood ahead of brexit so we will get the inside track from the head of their uk operations. facebook is 15. how can it stay at the social network of choice for the next 15 years? send us choice for the next 15 years? send us your thoughts for facebook and mark zuckerberg and your ideas. use the hashtag. hello and welcome to business live. a lot to get through so we will start in venezuela. the country's socialist president nicolas maduro has ignored a deadline set by major european nations to call a presidential election. tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets over the weekend,
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demanding his departure. once latin america's richest economy, boosted by the world's largest oil reserves, it's now in freefall, due to corruption, mismanagement and high levels of debt. here's what you need to know. consumer prices jumped 1.7 million percent in the 12 months to december, according to estimates by the opposition—led congress. by the end of last year, on average, prices were doubling every 19 days. there's a shortage of food and medicine. venezuela's main source of revenue is oil. but output from the state—run oil company pdvsa has halved since 2016 to fewer than 1.2 million barrels per day. it's also been heavily dependent on the us for oil revenue, sending a1% of exports there. but last week, the us imposed tough sanctions on pdvsa, in an attempt to force mr maduro from power. venezuela also ships oil to russia and china but rather than being paid in cash, the shipments are simply to pay off debts.
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the two countries are among venezuela's biggest creditors. its total national debt is estimated at almost $143 billion. with me is edward glossop, latin american economist at capital economics. let's get some analysis. good morning. those figures sound really startling, don't they? quite hard to comprehend. give us a sense of where we are at in a political crisis. in the political crisis we are essentially in deadlock. to men are vying for the presidency and the us has just placed sanctions on pdvsa, the oil company. where we go from here as anyone's gas that it is political wrangling and unlikely to end anytime soon. president maduro is showing no signs of ceding power despite the efforts of the us, and they are going to try and get humanitarian aid in. how will do
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that? the opposition does not have control of any areas of the country, so control of any areas of the country, soi control of any areas of the country, so i think aid will be distributed to neighbouring countries. it is not clear but i think that is the way it will work. the big thing for the us is that they are now waiting to see how the sanctions on pdvsa play out and they are hoping that the oil sanctions combined with hyperinflation will enter the regime before they have to take further measures such as military or other action. some are wondering about russia and china's role in this. as bennett mentioned, they are big creditors, so some would argue friends of the mad euro government. but what role do they play, if any? —— the maduro government. but what role do they play, if any? -- the maduro government. they are the key allies of maduro. this oil embargo on exports to the us, the sanctions, that will really hurt
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venezuela in the near term, and may be needs another loan from china or russia to tide it over for the next few months. that will be critical if maduro can get any further credit from those countries. if i were to put you on the spot and ask what would happen in the next six months we re would happen in the next six months were venezuela, what would be your best guess? if you look at the history of hyperinflation like this, it seems unlikely that maduro will be in power in six months‘ time. i don‘t think it will be as quick as the markets expect. they expect a quick and smooth transition in the coming weeks. expecting or hoping? hoping. in the next six weeks i think it is very unlikely that maduro will be in power. thank you for your time and your sense of where we are headed. we are keeping a close eye on venezuela and we will update you when things change. let‘s take a look at some of the other stories making the news. no—frills airline ryanair has reported a loss of around $22 million for the third quarter. it‘s blamed that on lower fares.
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just a couple of weeks ago, the airline had warned that its profits would come in lower. the company has also today reiterated that it could not rule out a further downgrade. the parcel delivery firm hermes has struck an agreement with one of the uk‘s biggest trade unions, gmb, to provide better rights for its workers in the so—called gig economy. as part of the deal, hermes‘ self—employed couriers will be offered guaranteed earnings and holiday pay as long as they stick to pre—determined routes. reports suggest a canadian music entrepreneur could be a leading contender to buy uk music chain hmv. the latest rescue bid is said to come from businessman doug putman, owner of canada‘s sunrise records. if the move pits him against sports direct founder mike ashley, who has also placed a bid. nissan has confirmed that the new x—trail suv, originally planned for its main uk plant, will instead be made in japan. in a letter to workers,
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it said continued brexit uncertainty is not helping firms to plan for the future. nissan also said that since 2016 "the environment for the car industry in europe has changed dramatically" including "changing emissions regulations". a damning report on australian banks has just been published. it contains 76 recommendations to overhaul the banking sector. it is pretty far and wide. suggestions include better oversight of banking regulators. it lists 2a incidences of financial wrongdoing to be referred for possible prosecution. hywel griffith has the details from sydney. over the course of the year, the inquiry looked at more than 10,000 complaints from bank customers here in australia and it clearly found a pattern of misconduct, mis—selling, customers basically being ripped off. however the final report leaves the big four banks in australia bloodied and bruised but not
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being broken up. that wasn‘t among the recommendations. the commissioner has recommended that 22 different institutions, including three of the big four banks, are looked at by the regulators with potential civil or maybe even criminal breaches to be investigated. but it doesn‘t really name names, so we are not expecting to see more chief executives lose theirjobs. however, there will be big changes, particularly when it comes to the issue of commission, for example with mortgages. the mortgage industry is huge here in australia. the banks take a big chunk of that but the way that people are charged and how the fees are hidden has really come under scrutiny. the australian government says it will look to act on all 76 of the recommendations. a pretty damning report. hywel griffith with the details from sydney. in asia, this is how the numbers finished. the nikkei ending higher,
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with financial stocks on the up on the back of decent economic data. remember that strong payroll data we got in the us on friday, giving most markets a boost. the strength of the january number was all the more surprising given the us government shutdown which saw hundreds of federal employees miss out on their monthly pay cheques. but the gains managed to keep markets up despite weaker figures from sony and honda which we reported overnight. it‘s looking pretty low key in europe. last week, the ftse 100 made its highest weekly close since last november, boosted by some stronger commodity prices. there is a bit of a lull in terms of attention on brexit because theresa may has got to go back to brussels in an attempt to reopen a little oral agreement, so don‘t expect to hear too soon. —— the withdrawal agreement. and news this weekend that nissan will no longer make its new suv at its uk sunderland plant has
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highlighted some of the real economic risks of failing to finalise a deal, and give some much—needed clarity to business. and samira hussain has details of what‘s ahead on wall street today. on monday google‘s parent club a other that will be reporting on earning that investors are expecting to see a rise in revenue for the fourth quarter helped by advertising sales. france announced last week that it levied a fine of 50 million euros, $57 million, for google‘s failure to fully comply with the eu's failure to fully comply with the eu‘s general data protection regulation, gdpr. the amount isn‘t really very much for google, but gdpr canfind really very much for google, but gdpr can find a company up to 4% of its annual revenue for noncompliance. investors will want to hear from alphabet about how they are addressing this ongoing issue. also on monday, the congress department is expected to report a rise of 0.2% in factory goods for
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the month of november. a busy week again. joining us is randeep somel, the director of global equities at the fund manager m&g. nice to see you again. last week was extremely busy. we had the said decision, trade talks in washington, so many big companies reporting earnings. —— the fed decision. this week will be a bit quieter and the big one will be google‘s parent company, alphabet. we have seen amazon disappoint and facebook be positive so far. everyone will now be looking at google, in the middle of the pack when it comes to ratings. and that update from ryanair, making a loss of 22 million. for most businesses that would be catastrophic but ryanair says it is fine, just one quarter. it is not unexpected that it has been heavily flagged and this is the wea kest been heavily flagged and this is the weakest time of year for them. michael o‘leary has been saying for a long time that competition is too
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high. we are bringing down prices but we are still strong. the smaller end of the market will completely come out. over the last few weeks we have seen germania and flybe coming under significant financial stress and putting themselves up for sale. primarily has gone bankrupt and norwegian did an emergency capital raise. everything he said last year has begun to play out. the smaller companies with a lot of debt are the ones that are looking under the weather now. and facebook is 15 yea rs weather now. and facebook is 15 years old! are you a fan? are you celebrating? have you got a cake? you can‘t deny that facebook has had a cute impression globally in the short time of 15 years that it has been around. what we are starting to see now is people are starting to move away from the facebook platform, and it is long in the tooth now, but also because of the compliance issues they have had. last week‘s results were
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surprisingly strong, despite the fa ct surprisingly strong, despite the fact they had their worst year when it comes to trust and reputation. expectations came down. the other thing to factor in with facebook as it is not just thing to factor in with facebook as it is notjust facebook. they have other tools in their armoury, namely instagram and whatsapp. instagram has now got half a billion stories per day. that is growing quite strongly and so is whatsapp, the biggest messaging platform globally. they will try to commercialise those a bit more. the market is coming a little bit away from the main facebook platform. thank you for 110w. facebook platform. thank you for now. you will be back later with the more interesting stories and also your birthday messages for facebook. and we will be talking about the nissan story in more detail. still to come: it attracts more than 2a million british buyers a month and supports more than 200,000 british businesses. it‘s ebay, the giant ecommerce marketplace. it‘s carried out a survey of uk firms and found brexit is the most likely factor to limit business
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growth this year. we‘ll get the inside track with the vice president of ebay uk. you‘re with business live from bbc news. let‘s dissect the numbers from ryanair in more detail. budget airline ryanair has reported a loss of £17.2 million for the last three months of the year with fierce competition forcing it to cut fares. but passenger numbers and revenues were up. theo leggett is looking through the numbers for us this morning. you have the unenviable task of making sense of all these numbers but ultimately what they are saying is that it is tough out there. but ultimately what they are saying is that it is tough out therem but ultimately what they are saying is that it is tough out there. it is that let‘s get it into context. ryanair is still predicting more than1 billion ryanair is still predicting more than 1 billion euros of profit for its 2019 financial year. yes, things are tough out there. the company says there is too much capacity in the market. too many people competing for passengers and as a result average ticket prices every year have gone down by 6%. yes, it
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is tough, but ryanair, is one of the biggest players, has said it could potentially take advantage of that. it expects other airlines to fall by the wayside. they point out that some of the larger players in the market, like norwegian, who are having to refinance, flybe, looking for a buyer, other companies are struggling. it thinks there could be a clear out going on so longer term it will have a bigger market share. losing a few customers now might weigh on profits but with the big competition going on, if prices come down, others could suffer more than ryanair. it is quite a turnaround. when we know may talk about airlines it is the bigger ones that struggle because they have a lot of overhead, but ryanair and because they have a lot of overhead, but rya nair and easyjet because they have a lot of overhead, but ryanair and easyjet have been successful in keeping those costs down, so they are more resilient when things get tough. the whole point of ryanair is it is an airline stripping out those extraneous costs. it is not fair to compare ryanair with the british airways of
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this world because they don‘t have a lot of overheads, but ryanair and easyj et have lot of overheads, but ryanair and easyjet have been successful in keeping those costs down, so they are more resilient when things get tough. the whole point of ryanair is it is an airline stripping out those extraneous costs. it is not fair to compare ryanair extraneous costs. it is not fair to compare rya nair with the extraneous costs. it is not fair to compare ryanair with the british airways of this world because they don‘t have the legacy costs from being an old—fashioned airline. it was established as a budget carrier with low overheads. in this particular market where margins are very tight, having a big bass and a lot of customers, and a bit of financial muscle, it is not a bad thing. thank you, theo leggett. it looks like a government report will be released in the next few days saying they have concerns about why way, because they have failed to address security concerns raised last year. —— huawei. look out for that next week. now, let‘s turn to the uk
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where brexit continues to pose multiple challenges for the country‘s firms. a new poll suggests it is seen as the most likely factor to limit business growth this year. but the study of small and medium sized businesses also found that younger owners were more optimistic about their growth prospects than their older counterparts. the poll by online giant ebay says those who were optimistic outnumbered pessimists by two to one. rob hattrell, vice president of ebay in the uk, joins us now. tell us a little bit more about what you found. at ebay we work with
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nearly 200,000 small businesses, entrepreneurial businesses in the uk. we surveyed a large portion to try and understand how they are feeling about this year and everything going on around them and how they feel about their business. and the optimists outnumbered pessimists by two to one, which is amazing when you think about the broad macroeconomic and political environment. but interestingly, millennial owners, under the age of 34, millennial owners, under the age of 3a, owning a small enterprise on ebay, 70% of them are optimistic about this year and the opportunities they can create in their businesses on ebay this year. that might be quite surprising to people because we meet a lot of businesses in thisjob. i people because we meet a lot of businesses in this job. i travel around the country meeting them, and they say if you are a bigger firm, you are more resilient with money and resources, but then equally small firms are pretty nimble and
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they can navigate it quite well.|j think that is our interpretation of the report. big business has capital resources to help them but small enterprises bring together a level of creativity and agility and an ability to adapt. in a market that is changing at enormous rates both from a consumer perspective, politically, macroeconomic, and the ability to adjust and adapt your business is incredible. your company, ebay, and uk operations, i assume you are not concerned about brexit and what it means for you as an organisation. or are you? we are a lwa ys an organisation. or are you? we are always concerned that it is for the people buying on the platform and the sellers. what they want and tell us is they want confirmation of what is going to happen. theyjust want certainty about what will happen and thatis certainty about what will happen and that is the thing that will give them confidence to trade. in amongst that, the reality is that a small business that can offer something odious can do can operate on a global basis. given what has been going on in the retail environment in the uk in the last year or so,
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would you say the digital solution for them has got to be a key part of how they operate because of how tough it is on the high street, also with brexit as well? our view with ebay as it is a combination, physical and online presence. we have been doing that it‘s physically in woolhampton. we announced a partnership with the city of wolverhampton in november, where we are taking small businesses who operate physically and we have brought them online on ebay, and we are working with those businesses and coating them specifically and in the three months that we have been working with than they have grown 4196, working with than they have grown 41%, and in total have turned over £1 million since we started. we think there are
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opportunities to get into bed at the same time. some of these figures are staggering. it is 2019 and yet a quarter of small retailers don‘t have an online presence and three quarters of those have no plans to change that. what is the thing holding them back?|j change that. what is the thing holding them back? i think it is a bit of fear and a bit of misunderstanding, and that is the purpose of the work we are doing in wolverhampton, to show that it is easier than you think. when you work with a platform like ebay, we will do the hard work for you, getting your business out there. you have got to work on your listings and what you are offering to the world and we did the rest. it is engaging with platforms that demystify it and give access to those customers. clearly you have a big business on your hands in the uk and in the world, that many people think of ebay as a model that is not outdated, but there are so many up and planning and similar organisations that represent independent retailers and that kind of thing. there are so many more out there. how are you differentiating yourself as you move forward as an organisation to make sure that we don‘t think of ebay as an old—fashioned online auction retailer that we used to use once
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upona time? retailer that we used to use once upon a time? 8096 of what is bought on the platform is brand—new. 80% comes from professional businesses and only 10% come through the auction and that has changed fundamentally. 25 million people in the uk bought on the platform last year and experience that very differently. we advertise in differently. we advertise in different ways. the real reason for the differentiation is all about how you can get small businesses that are creative and doing different things and putting inventory out there and solutions out there that customers really want and that is unique, and! customers really want and that is unique, and i think consumers can access that uniquely on ebay. good to talk to you. thank you for coming m, to talk to you. thank you for coming in, the vice president of ebay in the uk. in a moment we will talk you through the business stories including the nissan sunderland plant. but here is a reminder of how to get in touch with the programme. stay up—to—date with all of the business news as it happens on the bbc‘s business live page. there is analysis from our team around the globe and we want to hear from you. get involved on the web page at: on twitter we are: and you can find us
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on facebook. business live, on tv and online. what you need to know, when you need to know. sorry, we we re when you need to know. sorry, we were both waiting for each other! we both took a sharp intake of breath and nobody spoke. randeep somel from m&g joins us again. falling diesel sales behind this decision from nissan, saying it will not affect jobs decision from nissan, saying it will not affectjobs but decision from nissan, saying it will not affect jobs but they will be making the car injapan, the x—trail. making the car injapan, the x-trail. a lot of cities in europe are going to ban diesel, barcelona and madrid and paris. so nissan have taken the view that potentially the future of motoring in the uk or in europe is not diesel cars and they have decided to keep all their
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production consolidated injapan and not come to the uk. his brexit a factor? it probably is in that the eu andjapan factor? it probably is in that the eu and japan already have a free trade deal so they will be able to ship those cards into the eu without any tariffs. we don‘t know what will happen with brexit. that is probably in the back of their minds. but the main reason is probably because a third of diesel sales have fallen in a year and that trajectory continues to go down. speaking of another vehicle that could be reaching the end of its life, the air thus, the double—decker jumbo built by life, the air thus, the double—deckerjumbo built by airbus. lots of customers in the middle east but not elsewhere. yes, emirates look like they are going to pull out. they have 100 a380s in service and the next biggest airline is probably at around 30. the aircraft was built with relatively older technology. 787 and the airbus three
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850 a re technology. 787 and the airbus three 850 are all composite with brand—new engines, so the economics don‘t necessarily stack up. and you can't land these things anywhere. you have got to go to big cabs and not regional airports. that is right, but also the qantas ceo have said it is cheaper for qantas to flight two 77s back—to—backs than one a380. i have been on there many times and they are lovely and quiet. do you wonder about upstairs and downstairs? you can bet you don't really wonder about! they have a lot of space. emirates have got about in there and the middle east companies have showers and personal cabins. emirates want ever to carry on building it but the issue is that nobody else is coming in with orders and rolls—royce don‘t want to commit to the capital to developing a new engine when orders are so thin. thank you. it has been great to have you on the programme. thank you for
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your company. we will do it all again tomorrow. goodbye. good morning. some of you may have been walking and playing in the snow over the weekend but through this week we start to see the thaw because it is turning much milder. you can see this warmer air, the orange colouring, moving into the uk, pumping away the colder blue. i milder start to the day to day and through the week the temperatures stay dry. there will be rain at times with some sunshine and windy at times as well, particularly through this morning across the south and the south—east, where there is some rain which is dragging its heels in east anglia and the south—east of england. eventually it clears away that stays cloudy in the
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south—east corner. elsewhere some sunshine and the odd shower here and there. we lose the rain until snow across the far north of scotland and maximum temperatures getting up to eight to 11. through this evening and overnight we will lose the cloud. patchy fog develops, quite dense across southern parts, but actually a lot of clear skies tonight meaning it turns quite cool. widespread frost with temperatures down to minus one to minus for mac wrote celsius. some icy stretches on untreated roads and pavements. —— minus four. there will be sunshine initially on tuesday which we keep in scotland and the eastern part of england but elsewhere the cloud increases with patchy rain moving through. it is a showery as it moved in but temperatures get higher across the southern and western areas. ten to 13 celsius. eight or nine in the east. that weather system gradually moved away as we into wednesday. some clearer skies coming in behind itand into wednesday. some clearer skies coming in behind it and another weather front will bring some
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outbreaks of rain on wednesday across the north and west of scotla nd across the north and west of scotland and across northern ireland. still cloudy towards the south—east of england but you can see that in between the two weather systems, the central parts of england and wales, there will be sunshine on wednesday, with temperatures eight to 11 celsius. as for the rest of the week, we keep temperatures at the same values. some sunny spells but equally some rain pushing through from time to time and it could turn gusty as well. overall throughout the week, that thaw will set in and it is much milder. goodbye. you‘re watching bbc news at 9.00 with me, carrie gracie. the headlines. accident investigators will send a submersible down to the wreckage of the plane carrying cardiff city footballer emiliano sala and his pilot. all i will say about the wreckage is
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that there is a substantial amount of wreckage on the sea bed. conservative mps on both sides of the brexit divide will begin talks to try to find a way out of the deadlock. parcel delivery firm hermes agrees to offer couriers paid holiday and guaranteed wage rates as part of what the gmb union calls a groundbreaking new pay deal. thousands of homes are flooded in the australian city of townsville which has been battered by once—in—a—century monsoon rains. we have never seen a years worth of
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