tv BBC Business Live BBC News February 8, 2019 8:30am-9:01am GMT
this is business live from bbc news with susannah streeter and victoria fritz. the world's biggest oil reserves but an economy in freefall, who would be the winners and losers from regime change in venezuela? live from london, that's our top story on friday 8 february. the first lorries with us humanitarian aid for venezuela arrive on the colombian border, where roadblocks have been erected. president maduro says he won't allow it into the country. also in the programme india's tata motors suffers its worst share fall in 26 years as investors react to news of a record loss. and we are across the global financial markets. just opened in
europe with a mixed picture. and finland's guaranteed basic income trial — involving a monthly pay cheque from the state for thousands of unemployed — what's the take—home message? our economics correspondent andrew walker will bring us that and put the week's big news into perspective. today we want to know the tip that ‘beer before wine and you'll feel fine‘ has been debunked by scientists. so in your experience, what — apart from abstinence — helps you avoid hangovers? let us know — just use the hashtag bbcbizlive welcome to the programme. we start with the crisis in venezuela — as ministers from more than a dozen european and latin american countries call forfree presidential elections — and a peaceful solution to the struggle between president nicolas maduro and opposition leaderjuan guaido. but there are complex financial issues to resolve:
the eu—backed international contact group does not include russia and china. for years they have lent money to president maduro‘s government in return for cheap oil — making them two of the country's biggest creditors. estimates for venezuela's total debts vary — moody's puts them as high as $143 billion dollars. china alone is thought to have lent more than $62 billion since 2007 — a third of which is still outstanding. russia's national oil company rosneft has pumped $7 billion into venezuela in the past five years, mostly in loans to be repaid with future oil deliveries. at 300 billion barrels, venezuela has the world's largest proven reserves. but the industry is near to collapse after years of under—investment — and now faces us sanctions. there is major interest on wall street in what happens next. this graph shows trading in defaulted bonds owed by venezuela's state oil firm pdvsa.
goldman sachs and blackrock are among the major investors making bets on venezuelan debt. its value has surged on hopes maduro could be removed from power — as more countriesjoin the us in backing the opposition. the tory. that graph will be of great interest to kevin daly daly investment director, aberdeen standard investments but concerns to you have? were concerned about how long this crisis will go on for. the office of the us treasury is prohibiting us investors for continuing to trade the bonds. they said we will give you a period of up toa they said we will give you a period of up to a month to sell the bonds to non—us investors. effectively the
trading activity has ground to a halt. in terms of the ability to move these bonds and brand, you are extremely limited. we do not know how long this period will last. it could be an extended period or it could be an extended period or it could accelerate and be over in a matter of weeks or months. putting pressure on all of this is the fact president maduro is blocking more than $60 million worth of humanitarian aid at the border, aid that has been given by the us, canada and other countries. could this be the inflection point in this tussle between maduro and guaido, a lot of people in the border force will be feeling the effects of hunger, a lot of their friends are deserting the military, they will be starving. it feels like we are at an inflection point, us sanctions which have unplaced on the oil sector are pretty onerous. —— which have been placed. they are going to have to
find other countries to send out onto and very limited clients out there who could import venezuelan oil. as things stand there are only two micro countries in the world that pay cash or the oil, the us and india and the us provides important diligence for venezuelan oil because it is heavy crude and without that it is heavy crude and without that it will limit venezuelan's ability to export oil. it's really a crunch time, all the sanctions put in place oi'i time, all the sanctions put in place on the venezuelan government which will make it extremely difficult maduro to continue to pay general synod of the church of england keep them on his site which is effectively the way he has stayed in power for a effectively the way he has stayed in powerfora numberof effectively the way he has stayed in power for a number of years. there is this talk of potential military intervention, the us gets involved this way is a geopolitical reasons humanitarian ones? i personally think its humanitarian reasons because when you think about a lot
of us policy being directed by senator marco rubio, the former senator who has a huge venezuelan constituency especially in south florida and a lot of the measures put in place are coming from him. think about the main premise, it's humanitarian. the geopolitical angle, yes, there is one may china and russia being big lenders to venezuelan but so far china and russia, unsurprisingly i taking the side of maduro but i don't think at this stage it's a geopolitical crisis, it's more humanitarian at this stage. and q so much for talking us through all of that. kevin, thank you. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. the world's richest man, amazon.com founderjeff bezos, has accused the owner of a us gossip magazine of trying to blackmail him over lewd pictures. he said the national enquirer‘s parent company, american media, wanted him to stop investigating how they had obtained his private messages.
mr bezos and his wife mackenzie said they were divorcing last month. shares of toy giant mattel have surged i9% in after hours trade after it reported its best holiday quarter for five years. it's crediting a makeover of its barbie dolls with new skin tones, body shapes and outfits ranging from hijabs to space suits — as well as cost cutting a us bankruptcy court has approved billionaire eddie lampert‘s controversial $5.2bn takeover of troubled us retailer sears. the plan, announced injanuary, could keep more than 400 stores open and preserve up to 16,000 jobs. but some creditors had urged the judge to reject the deal — saying the former ceo had no viable business plan, and they would recover more money if the firm was liquidated. struggling uk airline flybe has warned shareholders it will wind up the company if they fail to back a sale to a consortium led by virgin atlantic and stobart air — at a meeting on march 4th. it's acknowledged that the offer
ofi penny per share is "disappointingly low" — but says without a sale investors are unlikely to get anything for their shares. indian car maker tata has suffered the worst share fall 26 years as investors reacted to disappointing results. sameer hashmi is in mumbai. wide easing shares have dropped by it so much because it's not the only car—maker experiencing problems. —— why do you think... if you look at what is happening, jl at has become the achilles heel of the company, it's been the main driver in terms of revenues for the company but look at the quarterly results, they reported a loss of almost $4 billion
and that's primarily because of an asset impairment for jaguar and that's primarily because of an asset impairment forjaguar land rover which is about three point for billion pounds. the outlook given by the management after that and i was also in that call did not impress analysts. jaguar land rover is facing for thy call a perfect storm, multiple issues, china, they are suffering because sales of cars are down, china was the main market for them in terms of revenue. it's down by 50%, car sales down. then you see what's happening globally, the shift towards electric vehicles and look atjaguar towards electric vehicles and look at jaguar land rover, most of their vehicles run on diesel and gasoline, that's a problem right there. third, fourth happening in the uk but brexit, the uncertainty around it, that's why there's so much confusion around what will happen with the future of this company and that's why stock has lost almost a third of its value in a single day. thank
you. lots up problems for global car—makers at the moment. let's take a look at the wider markets, a little bit of a slide on world markets, forecast out for another growth in europe but hopes receiving for smooth progress in the us china trade talks aimed at avoiding higher tariffs. mckay and hang seng down, and the dowjones closing lower. let's ta ke and the dowjones closing lower. let's take a look at the picture in europe since trading began to date. the ftse clinging onto positive territory. the banks in germany down very slightly. it seems a lot of the damage was done yesterday after the cut in growth forecast for the uk and the rest of europe. and samira hussain has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. profits are at the labs are expected
to fall because the company got a two—point severn bore billion—dollar boost as the result of the new us tax laws. but as ever investors will be looking for comments on the coming year. and specifically looking for anything the company has to say about venezuelan crude imports. also anything on its plans for the supply cuts from opec and canada. two other companies report earnings on friday, the beauty products maker kodi and the toy company hasbro. joining us is sue noffke, uk equities fund manager at schroders. good morning and how are you? very well thank you. citrate concerns rising to the top of the agenda, will be much to hope for? possibly, we've seen a big positive reaction from markets in 2019 after a pretty torrid end to 2018 and i think this
week, the fears are coming back a bit, march doesn't feel too far away and if there's not a resolution to the tariff trade for us between the us and china it means tariffs go up and they apply to a wider range of goods. and what we are seeing through results season and in the revisions to economic forecasts is that tariffs are a big reason behind those closed downgrades. this has been sparked in the last 24—hour is after reports coming out that resident trump is not going to meet chinese president until the edge of the deadline but there are talks taking place between chinese and us officials this weekend so perhaps a glimmer of hope? potentially, it's around negotiating positions and trump particularly, it's about the deal. i think this story will remain quite high on the agenda and on the news headlines. for the next couple of weeks. silver linings, susannah
streeter, who knew? you never know, what happens behind closed tours and talks behind closed tours, regarding the car industry, i'm sure. we've had the discussion about nissan, not producing one vehicle, in sunderland but also these results from tat tat, its across—the—board. but also these results from tat tat, its across-the-board. it doesn't but of what because you talk about, which market, these are global phenomenon is, the trade borders have a real impact because the large automotive market for exports and imports, the trend we're seeing around electric vehicles require a lot more investment but the payback, the profitability impact is quite long dated. meanwhile, costs are going up, profits are squeezed. simple sums, or going out, less
coming in. thank you so much, come back for the papers. a lot to talk about on the papers, including beer and wine, whether it makes you fine or not. i'm not sure about that but lots of tweets. still to come finland's basic income experiment: what's the take—home message? our economics correspondent andrew walker will bring us its conclusions and put the week's big economic news into perspective. you're with business live from bbc news. this week a new company took over responsibility for the 5,000 railway arches in england and wales that are home to around 4,000 small businesses. ben thompson is in south london to see what some of those small firms think about the new owners. he is hidden in a flower show. are you there? good morning, who would have thought this could be in one of the railway arches under the tracks?
interesting, all sorts of businesses up interesting, all sorts of businesses up and down the country that operate in railway arches, home to about 4000 businesses and you are right, from this week they get a new owner. next or there is a gym, a bit further down there is a bakery and they are concerned the new owner might have plans for the arches sold off by network rail to raise money. the concern is maybe the rental go up, it will not be the place for small or medium—sized firms to come in and set up and find their feet. with me is to see who can explain a little bit, you then looking into this. talk about how important it is for small businesses and the access they get in somewhere like this, why are they important? they are the lifeblood of the city, loris, small manufacturing firms, repair burns, they help to do is run and it is vital they stay in the city and at places like this that are flexible, they can be noisy and dirty and messy, perfect for them. they can be noisy and dirty and messy, perfect forthem. it's important they are able to stay in
these spaces. i was surprised at the sort of businesses, the diversity thatis sort of businesses, the diversity that is here, this is a florist, clearly, as i said there is a bakery, butcher, a gym further down from here, loads of businesses that are not necessarily car mechanics are not necessarily car mechanics are storage that you would expect. it's a bill makes and that's what's so it's a bill makes and that's what's so special, they are small businesses, they employ local people and it's important for local economies. the diversity is fantastic, we have the public face with some industrial spaces do not have, people are able to have gyms, bars mixing together and it said diverse and by brute place. so interesting, lovely to talk to you. what you can see here, sarah, getting some of the book is ready to go to posh hotels around london later. there is a concern around all of these businesses about whether new ownership could mean, whether it will price them out of the market. the new owners say they are committed to supporting the
businesses, setting up on monday, a lot of work for them. your‘re watching business live — our top story — the first lorries with us humanitarian aid for venezuelan arrived on the colombian border, roadblocks have now been erected. resident maduro says he won't allow it into the country. now, onto some other news... from world bank leadership politics to opec—russia courtship — it's been a busy week in business. our economics correspondent andrew walker is here with us to look at some of big stories you might have missed. notjust not just those spot we are talking about what is going on with the whole geopolitical system and these big institutions, let's start with the world bank, potentially going to be led by a man who thinks they are not fit for purpose. he thinks multilateralism has gone too far and
he would like to see the world bank shifting its focus. this is david malpass, friendly undersecretary for international affairs at the us treasury and he was also some time ago the chief economist at a stearns, the american investment bank that was at the centre of the financial crisis and his critics have pointed out that before things we nt have pointed out that before things went badly wrong in the financial crisis he was being really quite relaxed about the outlook for the credit markets and the housing market which is exactly where the crisis was set up but he has been nominated for thisjob by president trump. a couple of issues to unpick. one is him personally and yes his desire to see much less by way of world bank support specifically for china but also more of a focus on a reduced role overall but more of a focus on some of the more disadvantaged countries but this perpetual issue about the world bank
presidency which is that it has always been an american. after the second world war there was this kind of informal stitch up, essentially, that the american would get the bank and europe would nominate the person to run the international monetary fund. that deal has always been honoured so far. but there are an awful lot of countries who think it's time for change and i'm sure we will see, at the very least, some significant push back from developing countries especially who would like to see one of their own. as far as contributions are concerned, who are the biggest contributors? the biggest single shareholder in the world bank is united states, for sure. and also the biggest contributor to the fund that's used to essentially subsidise loans, cheap loans, to some of the more disadvantaged countries. they're in mind in terms of actually the money provides to the likes of china, the world bank borrows that
from the international capital market, it's not coming directly from american taxpayers european taxpayers although it is in a sense under pin by it as they are big investors that the bike capital that gives the world bank it sound financial footing. let's talk about finland, the government announcing the findings into the basic income trial added good. what did they find and did it work? to spell out what it was, a two—year experiment looking at the idea of how people would respond if you gave them a basic income and didn't withdraw it essentially if they managed to find work. it's intended to combat a couple of problems, one is the incentive effect you get if you withdraw income and people start getting work, it can make a very unprofitable to get a job and the other is to deal with a more moderate problem, the gig economy, the fact people may be able to get very short—term work which makes it great difficult moving in and out of employment. the conclusion they came
to on the basis of the first year is that it didn't really have much impact in terms of how much people worked, and extra half a day or so over the year. they earned slightly less but only i about 20 euros over the course of the year. but there was quite a marked impact on perceived well— being and perceived stress levels, that provide dan i provided some support for the experiment. plenty of critics said it was much too small an experiment and did not provide enough money but i have no doubt this will feed into a much wider debate, idlib for example, as ideas about this. there has been this experiment in canada. i think one really striking thing, sorry... really striking thing, it's almost like medical research, they ta ke almost like medical research, they take the treatment group, the people who got the money and compared, 2000 of them, a control group of 175,000 who did not come a bit like people
not getting a medical treatment and thatis not getting a medical treatment and that is something that social and economic policy, an approach to policy that has gathered a lot of steam in recent years. absolutely. thank you so much. researchers looking at that in great length, i am sure. we did not get onto oil and opec. no, we didn't. we can talk about that over copy later. in a moment we'll take a look through the business pages but first here's a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. stay up—to—date with all the news on the business live web page, or editors providing insight and analysis from around the globe. get involved on the web page... and we are on twitter that and on facebook. bbc business live,
40 you need to know, when you need to know. what other business stories has the media been taking an interest in? sue noffke from schroders joins us again to discuss there's talk about secret taxes and tariffs, there's talk about secret taxes and ta riffs, after there's talk about secret taxes and tariffs, after a no deal breaks it. this had been widely forecast. it's not a surprise, has lots of thought going into what might have to take place if there is no deal in place, the 29th of march. —— no deal breaks it. what's set out at the kind of measures, cutting tariffs, taxes, we saw dat been cut on a temporary basis in the global financial crisis, something similar could take place, support for experts, infrastructure spending to support the domestic economy, working closely with the bank of england about liquidity support probably
cutting interest rates as well. there are unintended consequences of these things and if you were to cut import tariffs to zero for example, lots of people would say that great because we get cheaper goods but not necessarily so. it might put a lot of businesses add a business in the uk. indeed and then there's the impact on inflation and further cutting interest rates is the appropriate response, rather than putting interest rates up. it's thinking through some of these consequences and whether it's creating unbalance and aggregate the right response. let's move onto another story. quite amusing. researchers have been investigating whether beer before wine really is fine. it's all about whether you should mixture inks and what's better. there we go. and apparently it's a mess and they debunk this by saying it doesn't make any difference which way you drink. there are all these sayings in
whatever language, country, you are from, all the sayings, the scientists set out to test whether the myth was true. and the myth has been debunked as not being true at all. it's all to do with the quantity not the sequence in which you take your drink. i'm not surprised, 19 units of blues in an evening which is what all of this would have accounted for, i'm surprised only 5% of people who did this test threw up. we asked people whether you have any secretive is to avoid hangovers, deborah said never going out, ever. come on, you kill jov- going out, ever. come on, you kill joy. deborah said by expensive drugs, that they cannot buy very many. but quite good. buy your own drinks, not rounds. that's a good i have a friend who pretends to do a shot, and then chucks it over her shoulder. sarah, i have got your number. that's it from business live today. there will be more business news throughout the day on the bbc live webpage and on world business report.
have a lovely hello, good morning. we will see very strong winds in scotland and northern ireland today, very heavy rain in the forecast followed by plus three showers courtesy of storm eric, you can see it distinctly on the satellite image as it moves across north—west areas of the uk. it's a deep area of low pressure and with it the white lines really quite close together, telling us quite windy conditions for many, weather fronts stretching through benin heavy rain. the rain will be particularly heavy at times as it spreads through england and wales, look at the dark blue and green colours, intense rain for a time. in between some sunny spells and blustery showers but the wind speed for all of us, 45—55 miles an hour
inland, around northern ireland, western scotland, the irish sea coast they could be as high as 70 miles an hour but a mild afternoon, temperatures between 10—12d. tonight the rain clearing to the south—east, showers eating in with persistent rain and hills all across scotland and the north of england. mild night, temperatures no lower than 6-8d but night, temperatures no lower than 6—8d but the wind staying strong as we go into the weekend. storm eric not moving far, to the north of scotland, nearest that area of low pressure is where the strongest wind will be, scotland, northern ireland, northern england, seeing gusts of 60-70 northern england, seeing gusts of 60—70 miles an hour throughout saturday with showers moving in. some elsewhere, largely dry, the wind further south not quite as strong, busting potentially 50 miles an hour across parts of the midlands and the east of england. maximum temperature is on saturday 8—11d. a
bit of rain starting to move back into the south—east. very strong wind not only today but into saturday as well, that could cause some disruption to ferries, bridges, some disruption to ferries, bridges, some flights may be disrupted as well. on sunday rain across the south—east of england, clearing, showers across scotland, northern ireland into the north of england, falling snow over higher ground, that could be quite a bit of snow to come on sunday. chilly day, northerly winds, not as strong but temperatures reaching 6—8d. goodbye. you're watching bbc news at nine with me, annita mcveigh. the headlines... a body recovered from the wreckage of a plane in the english channel is confirmed as that of the premier league footballer emiliano sala. the brexit backstop deadlock — the irish prime minister will hold talks with leaders of northern ireland's political parties today, before meeting theresa may later. a former president of the royal college of physicians has