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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  March 8, 2019 8:30am-9:01am GMT

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you're watching bbc news at 9 with me, annita mcveigh. the headlines... the government will grant formal diplomatic protection to nazanin zaghari—ratcliffe — the british—iranian woman who's been injail in iran hello. this is business live from bbc news, for almost three years. with victoria fritz and it also signals and maryam moshiri. that this is intolerable. china's exports plunge this has gone on for by the most in three years, nearly three years. as the trade war with the us bites. this is an innocent person live from london, that's our top being used as leverage. story on friday 8th march. where is the music?! we believe it in a last attempt to get mps to back her brexit deal, is coming. come on, maestro! theresa may will urge eu leaders to agree to legally binding changes to the irish backstop. a crisis in school funding. more than 7000 headteachers from across england write to parents warning that their schools are under threat. the slide in chinese exports and imports point to a further slowdown in the world's president trump's former campaign second—largest economy, chairman, paul manafort, sending asian markets sharply lower. also in the programme... norway could today turn up the heat on big oil. what are we talking about?
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its sovereign wealth fund — the world's biggest — will announce whether it's dumping all its oil and gas stocks. china leads stock sell—off as export data adds to growth fears. what do china's trade figures mean for the global economy at a time of slowing growth and trade tensions on multiple fronts? we'll put the data into context with our friday editor, economics correspondent andrew walker. today we want to know, as a report suggests the economy needs more women entrepreneurs, what do you think can be done to encourage more investment in female entrepreneurs? it's international women's day, of course. let us know — just use the hashtag #bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. chinese trade figures released in the past few hours have fuelled fears about the health
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of the global economy. they show a whopping 20.7% fall in chinese exports in february from a year earlier — the steepest decline in three years — after a surprise bounce injanuary. the slide reflects the negative impact of us tariffs and points to a further weakening in global demand. imports fell 5.2%, the third consecutive monthly drop, as the chinese economy weakens. growth in 2018 slowed to a near 30 year low. china's overall trade surplus — the difference between what china sells abroad and the amount it buys which so infuriates the us president — shrank dramatically to $4.12 billion in february
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from just over $39 billion the previous month. but analysts caution that china's trade figures early in the year can be distorted by the timing of the lunar new year holidays, when businesses either rush out shipments or scale back output before shutting down for an extended break. that will be something like ten days. dr thomas gift is a lecturer in political science and economics at ucl. hejoins me now. first of all, explain what you think this drop in the figures of exports will tell us about the status right now, and what the trade dispute with the us has had in terms of impact?
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it isa the us has had in terms of impact? it is a significant drop, around 20%, much more than the roughly 4.8% expected. but i do not think these numbers are totally unanticipated, we have seen predictions of slowdown in the economy globally, as well as domestically in china, but it is certainly a problem. i think it may make china more likely to want to come to the table and broker deal with trump, but there is a big question. does it put more pressure on china, politically?” question. does it put more pressure on china, politically? ithink question. does it put more pressure on china, politically? i think so, the domestic population will not be pleased with indicators in the economy, it might make leadership more likely to want to come together and get something done. earlier in the week we had the us trade deficit figures, disappointing reading for president trump. where does this leave the trade dispute between the countries and whether we will see
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progress? the united states registered around an $89! billion deficit from the previous year, which was significant. trump has used the trade deficit as an indicator of what he thinks is economic health. lots of economists do not necessarily agree with it, but his american first policies do not seem to be working, so he has quite an incentive to get a deal done. and going forward, we will see how that pans out. what does the chinese government has in terms of what it can do to change things and show up economic growth? what it can do to change things and show up economic growth7m what it can do to change things and show up economic growth? it is mostly looking at various physical leathers, reduction in tax, increased spending, which might galvanise domestic demand. i think thatis galvanise domestic demand. i think that is the range of options. thank you very much forjoining us, dr gift. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. the japanese economy grew in the last three months of 2018, thanks to increased investment after several natural disasters earlier in the year. economic output rose by i.9%, but analysts say it may weaken this year due to a slowdown
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in global trade. the chinese government's top diplomat says china supports huawei technologies' bid for legal redress in the united states, adding that chinese companies should use legal weapons and not be silent lambs. on thursday huawei announced it was suing the us government, saying that a law limiting its us business was unconstitutional. this is a great story. norway is about to decide whether to let its $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund dump all of its oil and gas stocks. after more than a year of closely held deliberations, the norwegian finance ministry is set to reveal whether its massive fund will be allowed to divest close to $40 billion in oil and gas stocks. the decision will be made public in the next few hours in oslo. tesla has signed an agreement with lenders in china for a 12 month facility of up to $521 million for its gigafactory in shanghai.
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karishma vaswani is in singapore. they've just gained a formidable ally that will help the company meet its ambitious timelines? yes, and it is certainly very positive news for tesla at a time of tensions between the united states and china, which was weighing on the company's and china, which was weighing on the compa ny‘s ability to and china, which was weighing on the company's ability to export cars to china. now with the loan of up to $520 million it can continue with the plans to build its first overseas gigafactory in shanghai. the loans have come from banks like china construction bank, the industrial and commercial bank of china, agricultural bank of china. real heavy hitters in the financial
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scene here. the loans maturing march 2020, according to a regulatory filing, and tesla has managed to change a separate asset—backed credit agreements, increasing how much it can burrow by as much as $700 million. so if it needs that money, it is there. the factory is thought to cost around $2 billion to build, and it could help accompany hedge against the ongoing trade war between the united states and china. of the factory is expected to be ready, rather the completed factory, is expected to be ready as early as this. a very happy international women's day to you, and thank you. major chinese stocks on friday had their biggest one—day fall since october as losses for global equities rolled on into the asia session after a policy shift from the european central bank set off concerns about global growth. and in the uk, shares
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in the retailer debenhams spike — as the entrepreneur mike ashley launches a boardroom coup. covers the ftse 100 is covers the ftse100 is down 0.78%. last night a post—market rns told investors he was prepared to step down from as ceo of sports direct to take the reins at debenhams, calling for a complete clear out of the debenhams board in the process. we will have more on that story a bit later with ben thompson. and michelle fleury has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. increasingly, investors are worried that the us economy is slowing down. has that message filtered down to the jobs market? well, we should get some indication later this friday when the us labour department releases its monthly employment report. it's likely to show that employers added 180,000 jobs in february, a respectable figure but down from more than 300,000 jobs created injanuary. and certainly the lowest number since last september. the unemployment rate
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is forecast to fall to 3.9%. the question for wall street, is this the beginning of a moderation in the pace of growth? well, someone who will be paying close attention to the data is american central bankerjerome powell. the chairman of the us federal reserve is due to give a speech on monetary policy at a dinner in california. michelle fleury‘s jacket and your skirt are perfect matches for the colour of the downward pointing arrows. it is all about the sell—off! arrows. it is all about the sell-off! somebody wary green skirt, then we can have an upmarket. you have heard from just now! joining us is james bevan, chief investment officer at ccla investment management — after a decade of deliberations, norway this morning will decide whether to let its $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund dump all its oil and gas stocks. why? two rather interesting points. norway's central bank has taken a
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very pragmatic perspective, for the bulk of wealth generation in norway is from oil and gas. if the sovereign wealth fund as meant to protect the global health of the economy, it needs to diversify against what is going on in oil and gas. and number of peoplejumped on the bike month —— bandwagon and have said oil and gas stocks are risky, think about it in the context of climate change, we think oil and gas is declining, better to march ahead of the band rather than following it. what would the impact of divestment be? this is a $40 billion stake, it will end up somewhere? it is swiftly 296 of shell, vpns total. —— it is roughly 2%. there would be stuck coming into the market, it would press valuation for a period and
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people on the other side would have to pick up the stock. covers what to do you think about the markets, looking at what has happened in china? there is a sense amongst the wider market that something is going on globally? it is abundantly clear that it on globally? it is abundantly clear thatitis on globally? it is abundantly clear that it is flowing fast compared to last year. i do not think we will see a global economic recession but i think there is a reasonable chance we see a recession in corporate earnings, so for me we should be looking for quality and secular growth rather than cyclical growth. what is secular growth? participating in long—term economic trends and expansion. cyclical growth is about raiding the upswing is and having to cope with the downswing is in economic activity
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levels. device like a bucking bronco! exactly. investors need focus on companies that will make reasonable money in an environment of low growth and inflation. it comes back to where china is coming from, it has been immensely important to the eurozone economy, it is immensely important for itself, it has driven global economic level so we need to keep a close eye on those numbers. and we will, that is what we do. fantastic, let me come back and talk about that! about anytime, and please stick around the papers. still to come... slumping chinese trade, a slowing global economy, action from the european central bank to boost the struggling eurozone. sounds like a great movie! sign me i we'll pull the grisly details together with our friday editor, economics correspondent andrew walker. you're with business live from bbc news. a battle for the boardroom of debenhams is hotting up. the boss of sports direct — mike ashley — says he wants to remove the current board, and install himself as chief executive. sports direct owns a 30% stake in the ailing
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department store chain. debenhams has issued several profit warnings, amid falling sales. ben is following this story from our salford newsroom. tell us more. 0h, new glasses! beautiful! and tell us about the haircut! happy international women's day. it is hotting up to be able june battle of soap opera proportions. 0n june battle of soap opera proportions. on one side, mike ashley, the boss of sports direct, the uk retailer. he brought house of fraser out of administration last year, i will tell you about that in a moment. 0n the other side is that border debenhams, he says you are not running this firm correctly, i wa nt to not running this firm correctly, i want to get rid of all of you, bar
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one, the finance chief. the expectation is that if he installed himself as chairman or chief executive of debenhams, using his 30% stake in the retailer, he could oversee a merger between house of fraser which he brought out of administration last year, and debenhams, which would maybe breathe new life into the department store chain. debenhams has had a pretty to have time, it issued three profit warnings last year, it has issued another one this week and it's really struggling. it sure prices down by 90% over the past year, shares worth just three p. pretty telling of sports direct shares are up telling of sports direct shares are up and debenhams shares are up quite significantly, but taking them to 3.75 p. debenhams, for its part, it says it is pretty disappointed this has happened but it is well within the rights of mike ashley to do
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this, he has a 30% state, he can call a shareholder meeting but will need other shareholders to back him. he was successful of getting rid of the chairman last year and has set its sights on the rest of the board. mike ashley, of course, the owner of a number of big retailers, including sports direct. he says he will step from thatjob if he gets this through. certainly one to watch, the battle for the boardroom at debenhams is really hotting up and turning into a big soap opera. your're watching business live — our top story... chinese trade figures — released in the past few hours — have fuelled fears about the health of the global economy. they show a whopping 20.7% slump in chinese exports in february, while imports fell 5.2%. slumping chinese trade, a slowing global economy, action from the european central bank to boost the struggling eurozone.
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plenty going on this week. 0ur friday editor is our economics correspondent andrew walker. at the heart of all the, whether we're talking about china, the eurozone or the rest of it, connected to it is the us and the ballooning trade deficit that the trump administration is struggling to get to grips with, and the trade deficit with india is falling? we had issue with india in that trump told congress he wants to withdraw some preferential access that india has to the us market, this scheme called the generalised system of preferences under which rich countries give developing countries better access to their markets, lower and sometimes zero tariffs.
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president trump says india is imposing excessive barriers and american business so he wants to withdraw the preferences for india. there are concerns about indian regulations making life more difficult for e—commerce companies like amazon, for example, and india has rather high tariffs on average. mrtrump has rather high tariffs on average. mr trump says he wants to withdraw preferential access. he is proposing to do the same thing for turkey but for the rather more benign reason that turkey has developed sufficiently economically to no longer be eligible, he regards it at least, for something directed specifically at developing countries. we had been talking about the relationship between the eu and the us, anotherfront relationship between the eu and the us, another front on which the us is fighting it out? the european union trade commissioner surly armstrong was in washington for talks about plans for an attempt to get a big trade deal between the us and the eu. it is not going that smoothly. she has indicated that, from the eu side, it will be about removing industrial tariffs, the americans wa nt to industrial tariffs, the americans want to have agriculture included.
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for europeans that is regarded as too difficult. so we had quite a significant obstacle before we can even have the formal launch of negotiations. all of this is under the cloud of the possibility of 25% ta riffs the cloud of the possibility of 25% tariffs imposed on european under the united states because of an investigation commissioned by president trump. a headache the eurozone really does not know. we heard from mario draghi that the ecb will unveilfresh heard from mario draghi that the ecb will unveil fresh bank stimulus, cheap money. we have been here before and it does not look great? the ecb has substantially downgraded its forecast for the eurozone from 1.7, not particularly strong to start with, down to 1.1. so they are taking some steps by pumping more money into the banking system and by giving a kind of commitment to
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borrowers that the ecb‘s loan interest rates are very unlikely to be raised by the end of the year, they are currently rock bottom, zero for their main rate, that is one of the reasons they are having to do these relatively unusual creative things, giving guidance and pumping extra money into the banking system, because there is not much scope to go significantly lower on their own conventional tool of cutting interest rates. the ecb has cut its growth forecast —— the 0ecd has cut its growth forecast, why does that matter? it is an indication of the general view of the global economic outlook, that will be reflected, if correct, in the prospects for income growth and employment in the coming yea rs, growth and employment in the coming years, and they have downgraded their forecast for the world economy, not a huge reduction but there are some quite substantial wea knesses there are some quite substantial weaknesses in their figures for the
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eurozone in particular. they reckon italy will contract this year, germany is experiencing growth of no .796, germany is experiencing growth of no .7%, adding to what you are hearing earlier, the global economic outlook is really getting pretty overcast now. great, and you, thanks! have a good weekend! there was a big report out by alison rose of rbs this week. banks must do more to support female entrepreneurs — that's according to a new report today, on international women's day. it found that the uk economy could be given a £320 billion boost if women entrepreneurs were given the opportunity to develop new businesses on the same scale as men. let's hear from alison rose. when we talk to female entrepreneurs, and we've done thousands of interviews in research, they don't know about all the different types of capital that are available, the grants that are available.
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so lack of awareness is clearly one issue. but there is an unconscious bias, an open bias that exists amongst vcs. so we've got to tackle both of those elements. and it's about getting sort of perception is understood. there is this misconception that females are more risk averse. they are not. they are more risk aware, but that may come across as being more risk averse, which may impact decision—making. but i think if we can create more transparency, more awareness, more targeted intervention, it will make a real difference. joining us is james bevan. he is back to talk about this story and others. that report seems to say what people knew already, the barriers towards female entrepreneurs, and one of the barriers it's getting funding in the
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first place? this is a global challenge, alison's focus was on the global economy but similar data comes out for a whole range of economies where women find it extremely difficult to raise finance to get started. interestingly, once they had started they can be immensely successful, no surprise. the problem for the uk is that even when women have first—round funding, their capacity to raise existing funding is not that great. in the app states, the second—round experience of fundraising is much more successful, which is probably why think there are more successful female entrepreneurs in the states and in the uk. bamboo has tweeted to say the gender of entrepreneurs does not matter, ideas and strategies are what matters. nigel says also female plumbers, electricians, builders and many more traits. good point. more female business women in general would be good. 0ne hearsay is all for women being
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given an equal chance, but as the mechanics of doing business differ in respect to the bottom line or the innovations produced? in respect to the bottom line or the innovations produced ? there in respect to the bottom line or the innovations produced? there is a programme in the uk produced by the bbc called dragons' den, and the winner, this person tweeting comments, do not ask different questions than the men in general. james? our experience as looking at businesses already in the public domain is the diversification of the workforce and the board are critical components of risk management. it is a big success factor. the vice where you work, see cla pad management,, —— where you work, sage pad management —— sage management, what is it like? the city is a place where people come from many
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backgrounds, can be men or women. but i think one of the problems we have with venture capital in the uk, which is partly illustrated in alison rose's reports, it's how difficult it is for entrepreneurs to raise capital actual, and there is a six times greater likelihood of raising capital if you know somebody, as opposed to coming cold. we need more linkage, more transparency, more capacity. talk about dragons' den, we need that replicated manyfold. what role does the likes of crowdfunding play in the likes of crowdfunding play in the success of female entrepreneurship, going to people you know and asking for backing?” think it is deeply important but we need a big social change where women have much more supportive being entrepreneurs. we had to celebrate women success but we have a lot more to do. the vice as always, so wonderful to have you on the programme. come back soon, james
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bevan. plenty more business news through the rest of the day and on the live page. happy friday. good morning. a rather chilly start to the day, frost across northern areas. at least it has been a fairly sunny starterfor areas. at least it has been a fairly sunny starter for many. from the picture behind me, you can probably tell it will cloud over across most parts today, and some rain with that. here is the cloud, a big lump moving from the west, already across northern ireland, scotland, wales, the south—west of england, the crowd moving in. it is linked to a weather system which will bring rain through the course of the day, linked to an area of low pressure. through the weekend, things will stay quite u nsettled. weekend, things will stay quite unsettled. some brightness lingers across eastern areas today, the further west you are, cloudy, patchy rain from northern ireland, hill
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snow across scotland, eventually spreading into the midlands and may the south—east of england later this afternoon. maximum temperatures getting up to about seven to 11 degrees. wind is not as strong as yesterday. tonight, the bulk of the rain clears away but will be followed by showers, some quite wintry across scotland and the far north of england. not as cold as last night, temperatures staying at about three to seven or 8 degrees. for the weekend, a westerly airstream across the uk, a number of areas of low pressure, weather systems moving through. unsettled conditions through the weekend. some uncertainty on the finer detail for the forecast, but it has been windy, it will feel cold, there will be rain until snow but there will also be sunny spells. the best of the sunshine will be toward southern and eastern areas on saturday, the further north and west
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you are, showers, quite a bit of snow over the higher grounds of scotla nd snow over the higher grounds of scotland and north pennines on saturday, some winteriness towards lower levels. blustery conditions, quite chilly in the winter. by sending the showers are more frequent in the north and west and more likely to be snow, even turn to low levels. certainly quite a bit of snow accumulating other higher grounds of the pennines and across scotland. quite windy conditions, the best of any sunshine towards the south and east, maximum temperatures on sunday of about six to 10 degrees, but with the breeze it will feel colder than the temperatures suggest. that's all from me, goodbye.
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