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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  October 1, 2019 8:30am-9:00am BST

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this is business live from bbc news with ben bland and alice baxter. from financial minnow to an economic powerhouse, as china marks its 70th birthday we ask what the future holds for the engin of global growth. live from london, that's our top story on tuesday 1st of october. people's republic of china is now 70 years old but can the asian powerhouse stay ahead of the pack with slowing growth
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and an ongoing trade war with the us? also in the programme, australia cuts rates as the era of cheep money returns , but can an economy so reliant on sending raw materials to china weather a beijing slowdown? and we'll be getting the inside track on a business that's aiming to be a sparkling success — the boss of the jewellery editorjoins me now. and as the uk governmenet proposes raising the minimum wage to £10.50 for everyone over the age of 21 we want to know what yourfirstjob was? let us know — just use the hashtag #bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. we start in china, which is marking its 70th anniversary and with it one of the most extraordinary and rapid economic transformations in history.
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from a relative financial minnow the communist state has grown to become the world's second biggest economy. as you can see from this graph chinese economic expansion accelerated dramatically in the 1990s as a result of mass privatisations, and the opening up of the country to foreign investment. but after decades of super charged growth the asian powerhouse only grew by 6.2% year—on—year in the second quarter — far cry from the 14% growth of the 90s. but that all sounds worse than it is — china has to some degree been intentionally slowing its economy as it moves away from dependency on investment to more consumers driven growth. but there is a problem — the china—us trade war. so far the us has imposed tariffs
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on more than $360 billion of chinese goods, and china has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110 billion of us products — all of which could knock china's economic miracle off course. with us now is eleanor 0lcott, china policy analyst at t5 lombard. many thanks for joining many thanks forjoining me. as we we re many thanks forjoining me. as we were hearing, china's economic transformation has been nothing but remarkable, but the double digit growth only occurred over the last 30 years, since the 1990s? growth only occurred over the last 30 years, since the 19905? that growth only occurred over the last 30 years, since the 1990s? that is true and china is entering a period of slower economic growth, but it is looking better quality growth. if you look at previous periods of slow down in the chinese economy in 2008 and 2015, the government stepped in with huge amounts of fiscal stimulus to boost the economy once again. the authorities have made it clear they
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are not going to do that this time around and they are seeking to reduce the overall debt burden and de—risk the financial sector. putting it into context, even though it is experienced its slowest growth, annual rise of 6% is something developed economies around the world would be hugely envious of? 6.2% is the official number. the real gdp growth will be lower than that, but still if the economy is growing from those single—digit numbers from the bigger base, that is still huge economic growth. the headwinds are real, both internal and external. pollution, capital controls, the swine fever epidemic that saw pork prices soaring in the world's biggest producer and consumer of the meat. and of course the prolonged us trade war, how damaging are these factors to the
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economy? trump would like you to believe the trade war is the most damaging thing for the chinese economy, the biggest headwind. but the economy was slowing before those initial tariffs were applied. as it has been highlighted, it is making the transition between its manufacturing, export led economic model, to a private sector, domestic consumption led economic model are making that transition has been difficult for china. and supporting private sector growth which is the biggest contributor to chinese gdp, it is reducing the overall debt in the chinese system, is the biggest challenge facing the authorities. yes, the huge internal market will be fascinating to see how the economy continues to develop over the next 70 years. we will have to leave it there, good to talk to you. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news: prime minister borisjohnson has rejected leaked claims overnight that the government has proposed
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"customs clearance zones" to tackle the irish border issue. government sources told the bbc it had prepared the legal text of an updated brexit deal and would be making more plans public in the coming days. proposals for reaching a brexit deal had been expected ahead of a crucial eu summit on 17th october. in the us, republican new york congressman chris collins has resigned from congress amid reports he plans to plead guilty to charges of insider trading. according to prosecutors, mr collins gave confidential information about an australian biotechnology firm to his son. he had called the charges "meritless" and pleaded not guilty, but will reportedly change his plea. household appliances will become easier to repair thanks to new standards being adopted across the european union. from 2021, firms will have to make appliances longer—lasting, and they will have to supply spare parts for machines for up to 10 years.
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the rules apply to lighting, washing machines, dishwashers and fridges. australia has cut interest rates to a record low of 0.75%. it's the third reduction in five months amid fears the outlook for the australian economy is not good. phil mercer is in sydney. had this been anticipated?” had this been anticipated? i think many economists had looked into the tea leaves and seen this coming. this is, for the very first time, the reserve bank of australia tipping interest rates below 1% for the very first time. they now stand at 0.76% as australia tries to combat rising unemployment and a faltering economy. the australian dollar hit a ten year low against its us counterpart in response to
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this rate cut. that is one of the reserve bank's ambitions, to drive the domestic currency lower to make australia's exports more competitive. this was pretty anticipated i think by most economists and the game now, if you like among people in financial markets is to try and work out when the next rate cut will be because the next rate cut will be because the smart money here is that borrowing will become even cheaper in the next few months and the reserve bank likely to cut rates again. of course, with the slowdown in economic growth in china, that has a knock—on effect for australia because it is so reliant on consuming the metals which are so important to australia's economy? australia's prosperity has been underpinned by demand from china, almost 40% of australia's exports go
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to china. if you think of the three main economic pillars of the australian economy, resources, tourism and education. china dominates pretty much all of them and china's demand for iron or an coal for example has been extremely important for the australian economy. there have been tensions between the two countries politically speaking over allegations of chinese interference in australia's domestic politics and also allegations of cyber espionage. but the trading relationship, that remains as strong as but the trading relationship, that remains as strong as ever, but the trading relationship, that remains as strong as ever, china is australia's biggest trading partner and as you say, any slowdown in the chinese economy will certainly have ramifications here. phil mercer, thanks very much indeed. asian markets mostly rose tuesday after wall street finished a volatile quarter on a positive note. the nikkei in tokyo ended the tuesday session higher. following wall street's lead,
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tokyo climbed 0.65%, helped by a drop in the yen and as investors shrugged off a japanese survey that showed business confidence continued falling. the hang seng in hong kong and the mainland chinese markets are closed as the people's republic celebrates 70 years of communist party rule. in sydney the all 0rdinaries moved higher after that interest rate cut by australia's central bank — it makes borrowing cheaper encouraging people to spend and invest. european markets climbed higher at the open. buyer sentiment on world markets got a boost from comments from the trump administration denying the likelihood of potential new us restrictions on chinese investment. and samira hussain has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. on tuesday, we will get the latest purchasing managers index, or pmi, for september. this index points out trends that are happening in the manufacturing sector. the information is based on surveys of
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private—sector employees from 19 different industries, and the monthly changes in pmi can give businesses important information that can guide their thinking when making decisions — if they should buy more supplies and increase production, or if they should wait before making any big investments into their business. but, most importantly, the pmi is an indicator of overall economic activity, and analysts expect the number to go up compared to the previous month, which means that manufacturing in the us is rebounding. joining us is sonja laud, deputy chief investment officer at legal & general investment management. good morning, lovely to see you again. you were in china last week trying to drum up a bit of business, what was it like? this is all in preparation for the big event. there
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isa preparation for the big event. there is a proper celebration and the acknowledgements of the achievements of the people's republic of china. we have been speaking about the australia's central bank cutting interest rates, the third rate cut this year. it is very much in keeping with central banks around the world, but this is really then moving to pre—empt a severe downturn and try and get in ahead of the curve dipping too steeply? yes, absolutely, alongside most of the other central banks, interesting the australian central bank still has room to cut and this is something not all central banks have at their hands. i think this is again, a recognition although we are back into easing modes, there is widespread discussion how effective this will be, particularly because the ammunition is mostly used up across some of the big central banks around the world. it is the 1st of
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0ctober, around the world. it is the 1st of october, we are at the beginning of q october, we are at the beginning of 0 four october, we are at the beginning of qfourand october, we are at the beginning of 0 four and isn't it interesting that we are almost exactly where we were 12 months ago, treasury yields down, does this bode well or not so well? it is indeed incredibly interesting because we know how painful q for 2018 has been and here we are 12 months on, and the s&p 500 is very near its all—time high but treasury yields are 50% lower. we have seen massive diversions and investors have to find out who is right in a way. there have only been two incidences in the past 50 years where we have seen a similarly dramatic move in yields over a 12 month period and it has been the globalfinancial month period and it has been the global financial crisis in 2008 and the euro zone debt crisis in 2012. it really is an interesting moment and we should not forget we are facing two very binary political
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events that can dramatically alter the global economy over the next 12 to 24 the global economy over the next 12 to 2a months. this is what we are grappling with, this is where it seems the bond market is on the pessimistic side where is the s&p 500 at the all—time high is painting a different picture and central banks in the middle with their easing support, most likely holding the key to what is happening next. 0k, we are going to talk to you later, it really good to talk to you now ahead of our paper review the end of the programme. still to come: a business that wants to be the gold standard for those who want to be in the know about high end jewellery. we'll be asking if the market exists to make this business a sparkling success? you're with business live from bbc news. takeaway food chain greggs has had another strong quarter — posting a 12.4% increase in sales in the 13 weeks to the end of september.
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they also also gave details of their brexit planning — confirming plans to stockpile supplies of key ingredients should a no—deal brexit impact on the supply chain. craig erlam is a senior market analyst at 0anda. have they explained what they have put this 12.4% increase in sales down to, is it the vegetarian sausage down to, is it the vegetarian sausage rolls? that has given them a boost, but this is part of why the company is engaging in such an aggressive expansion plan. they are expecting to open slightly fewer stores tha n expecting to open slightly fewer stores than they were previously planning and only 90 net new store openings but that is considerable growth and does reflect the strong sales. what we need to continue to see in relation to that vegan sausage roll is a more product offering, more reasons to drive consumers in. otherwise they may struggle to retain these levels of
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growth. we were saying greggs has talked about it brexit no deal contingency plans, give us a bit more detail on those, what are they doing in terms of stockpiling? they are stockpiling a lot of goods ahead of this potential no—deal brexit. certain industries and food is one of them, where they rely on the timing of the imports and things like pork, a key ingredient in many of their foods, is an important one as far as they are concerned. there is also a price component as well. a lot of them come from outside the uk and therefore the sensitivity to the movements in the pound in particular, but then tariffs and other obstacles could create further price pressures going forward and they need to insulate themselves in they need to insulate themselves in the weeks after the 31st of october to remain their shelves remain full. many thanks, good to talk to you.
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much more on the greggs numbers and the stories we are covering this hour on the bbc live web page. much more there at the moment also about the ongoing repatriation efforts of thomas cook customers and indeed more on how the stock markets are doing and those australian interest—rate doing and those australian interest— rate cuts. doing and those australian interest—rate cuts. just go to... you're watching business live. our top story: china is hosting lavish events to mark 70 years since the communist state was founded. a quick look at how the markets are faring. here in europe, they are on a bit of an upward trend at the moment of the ftse 100 an upward trend at the moment of the ftse100 is still fairly flat. now, if you could afford it, would you ever splurge $10,000 on a pair of earrings? or what about some other indulgence?
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i would be terrified to wear them, i lose everything. the word "expensive" is often branded as higher quality and exclusive — but is expensive always better? and what really makes us part with our hard—earned cash? well, to find out more, we are nowjoined by someone who understand what gets people excited about luxuries. maria doulton is the co—founder of the jewellery editor. she's been writing about timepieces and jewellry for more than 15 years. he published this online, high and jewellery and watch magazine, what made you want to launch that?” jewellery and watch magazine, what made you want to launch that? i have been writing about watches and jewellery for 15 years and i saw the digital world was evolving and it wasn't going to go away and more information online and also the industry was changing, becoming aware of the reality of e—commerce
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and how people get information in different ways. i thought why not, with my business partner create a platform that was infinite, online for such a visual subject as well, jewellery. i was writing in print and may one or two pictures when really you want to show the full beauty of jewellery with pictures and videos and that was the genesis of the jewllery editor. items of high—end jewellery, are they not the sort of things that people would not necessarily go and look for a particular item, but you want to catch their attention if they are flicking through a glossy, high—end magazine all that sort of publication, browsing rather than specifically reading about it on a specifically reading about it on a specific online site? we have 140,000 unique visitors a month so that the people like people who love wine, cars and interior decorating, they want a specific website where they want a specific website where they know they can get information from a trusted source. people research online and they may end up
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buying in store, down to see it u nfa i rly buying in store, down to see it unfairly but the first stage of browsing online has replaced what people used to do in print magazines. what are you seeing the greatest interesting at the moment, what is the trend towards? the big story this week was princess beatrice' engagement ring because that was officially announced last week and everybody wanted to know who made her ring. if you read our website, he is a very british jeweller, one which i think was an interesting choice because he is quite avant—garde, used to work with alexander mcqueen so to be able to share stories like that, it keeps us going and enthusiastic everyday. also discovering new talents, going to graduate shows, auctions to see which will be the next record—breaking piece of antique jewellery or diamond. it is well but is constantly evolving and full of different, interesting stories and beautiful things and interesting people as well. you clearly have all
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the inside knowledge. interesting what you are saying, the jewellery world hasn't exploited social media perhaps, online platforms, which is something you are trying to take advantage of, but also traditionally, the jewellery world in particular has been very male dominated? yes, run by men. mining isa dominated? yes, run by men. mining is a malejob if dominated? yes, run by men. mining is a male job if you dominated? yes, run by men. mining is a malejob if you go dominated? yes, run by men. mining is a male job if you go to a jewellery shop, mostly men in the shops and that is changing now, we have more women designers coming through and they are managing their own businesses and websites like those run by women talking about jewellery for women is making it and approaching it in a more feminine way as women buy their own jewellery, cell purchase, that has been a big change. you are an all—female business? been a big change. you are an all-female business? we are, we did have one male employee for a time, but we are all women, we have a passion for the subject and want to share all the wonderful things that
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we see. maria, good to talk to you there. in a moment we'll take a look through the business pages, but first here's a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. london, singapore, shanghai, new york. 0ur correspondence have your business world covered — on air, online and on the bbc news app. check out bbc.com/business for their insight and analysis. bbc‘s business live page has the latest breaking business news. we want your views, too. get in touch via the business live page, tweet us @bbcbusiness or find us on facebook at bbc money. join the bbc‘s business conversation. let's see what other stories are being talked about on social media. what other business stories has the media been taking an interest in? joining us again is sonja laud
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from legal & general investment management. it is astonishing they have got to go to such lengths to woo investors for what is going to be one of the best anticipated listings?” for what is going to be one of the best anticipated listings? i cannot remember how many times we talked about this over the past few years and we had them come to the debt markets a couple of times but it is the equity listing everybody is anticipating. you have heard the story about the potential dividend to highlight the strength of the balance sheet, the strength of the business and they would like to make sure this is a well supported and underwritten ipo. the guardian, this is about borisjohnson's secret irish border plans being dismissed asa irish border plans being dismissed as a nonstarter, as the guardian puts it. but it is about the fact
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that the prime minister has said within the next 24 how is he is going to give us his updated brexit plans, what do you make of the article? to start with, it was clear that it had to cover the irish backstop, because we know this was the most controversial part of the withdrawal agreement. if there is a chance to bring this back to parliament, he has to address what has been the most contentious point. it is interesting, if you read the article it still involves checking and controls, which was the part the irish government was opposed against. if you think about it, physically there has to be some checks, otherwise goods would be uncontrolled coming into the uk and vice versa into the euro zone. so very interesting and we will obviously watch very carefully, when we see the details and assess whether this has a real chance in parliament to be seen as a real amendment to the original withdrawal agreement. this often comes back to
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this exact situation doesn't it, the irish backstop, this idea of keeping an open border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland. also, at the beginning of the programme, we asked a question, we asked what your first job programme, we asked a question, we asked what your firstjob was and what you potentially got paid and thatis what you potentially got paid and that is in recognition of the announcement the chancellor made yesterday, raising the minimum age to 10.50 and lowering the age down to 10.50 and lowering the age down to 21. we have had some responses yes, dan got in touch to say my first paid job was delivering newspapers for the equivalent of £40 a week. it was a generous wage, covered my living costs of candy bars and football magazines. no name says, i worked on the checkoutin no name says, i worked on the checkout in safeway and i earned 1.25 an hour. i and under £10 an hourfor my 1.25 an hour. i and under £10 an hour for my first 1.25 an hour. i and under £10 an hourfor my firstjob 1.25 an hour. i and under £10 an hour for my firstjob what is the reason for the minimum wage? hour for my firstjob what is the reason for the minimum wage7m hour for my firstjob what is the reason for the minimum wage? it is very clear, it has to be the balance against brexit to give something
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backin against brexit to give something back in terms of inequality and the discontent in the country. very good to talk to you, as ever. thanks for watching. that is all, goodbye. there have been a number of flood warnings over the last few days and with more heavy rain, thunderstorms today across england and wales, that number could change. low pressure driving the weather and that is the rain as it moves in overnight. pushed up into central and southern scotla nd pushed up into central and southern scotland come into northern ireland. todayit scotland come into northern ireland. today it will move further southwards and eventually clearing from scotland, northern ireland and they will be some sunshine here. further south of the rain band we will see heavy and thundery showers. frequent lightning, the show was moved from west to east. it is going to give some torrential rain in a short space of time. met office warning in force across southern
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areas. the risk of localised flooding. temperatures here about 15 to 19 degrees. despite the sunshine in northern areas, one or two wintry showers over the high ground and scotla nd showers over the high ground and scotland is about ten to 12 celsius. through tonight that cloud and ray will push to the south and for many there will be clear skies. 0ne will push to the south and for many there will be clear skies. one or two showers into the north but with the clear skies it will turn chilly. perhaps even a frost over northern pa rt perhaps even a frost over northern part of england and up into scotland. for many temperatures down into low, single figures because we have this finger of cold air, which has come all the way from the arctic and that is right across the uk during wednesday. yes, a chilly the day, lots of sunshine on wednesday morning. klau developing across scotland, eastern part of england, perhaps south wales, south—west england. the risk of the odd shower here but for most it is a dry day on wednesday but the chilly day and temperatures ten to 14 celsius. at the end of the week we have got to
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look to the mid—atlantic because you may have heard about hurricane lorenzo ? may have heard about hurricane lorenzo? it is going to move north and east woods. it is going to affect the azores over the next 24 hours. let's run the forecast track. it will push a north eastwards. as it moves further north in the atla ntic it moves further north in the atlantic hits cooler waters and it will become an x hurricane. they will become an x hurricane. they will hit the west of the uk during thursday and friday. details could change slightly but it will be u nsettled, change slightly but it will be unsettled, outbreaks of rain, some strong winds, particularly across western parts of the uk into northern ireland and scotland. well worth staying tuned for the moment. goodbye.
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you're watching bbc news at nine with me, annita mcveigh. the headlines: borisjohnson says he will put forward formal proposals for a new brexit deal shortly, but rejects leaked ideas to replace the irish backstop as "not right". i think that we'll be making a very good offer, and clearly i've seen some... some briefing already from... i don't know where it's come from, i think, possibly, from brussels, which is not quite right. the prime minister confirms there will be customs checks on the island of ireland, but that is not a hard border, he says. china puts on a huge display of military hardware in beijing to mark the 70th anniversary of communist party rule.

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