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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 17, 2013 6:00am-8:01am EST

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morning's inflation report. brady orare not thomas peyton manning, the rest of the nfl lays three seasons and they are done. the money runs out. good morning, everyone, this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is tuesday, december 17. joining me is scarlet fu and denver broncos fan michael mckee. we need a morning brief. >> the broncos look good this weekend and they are playing the worst team in the league. >> is that the jets or the giants. wax unfortunately, it is used in. mark carney who is sitting in the catbird seat. he came over to fix the bank of england and the economy is soaring and and uk inflation unexpectedly slows in november, the lowest in four years, 2.1%.
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that's a different inflation. >> that is helping them a lot. >> we have our own price index today. cpi is expected to rise today but only to 1.3%. we also get the association of homebuilders index. the highs are expected to rise. two-day one of the fed meeting. tomorrow we get the rate decision and the bank of england governor is testifying to the parliament economic affairs committee. is his first testimony. german chancellor angela merkel is sworn in for her third term today. >> let's take a data check. it is quiet and you would expect that as we begin this to date
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that meeting. the market is flat. crude oil has gone nowhere the last couple of days. screeno on to the next -- a little bit of foreign- exchange. quiet big deal of isle december -- usd-idr the indonesian currency. everything else is stable and indonesia goes weaker. the bank of japan is helping. that. can see -- that bears watching into the beginning of the year. let's look at a chairman y yellen chart.
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this is 22%, zero percent, how much angst is this for chairman yellen? >> they are not happy about disinflation. some people think they they could put in a new threshold, and inflation floor. is there a theory for that? >> you don't want to get into deflation. they want the markets to believe they will inflate. >> the forward guidance keeps changing. >> we are looking for your forward guidance on the front pages today. of the nsa surveillance program may be unconstitutional. a federal judge ruled the collection of phone call data may have finally to the constitution. the judge allowed a lawsuit to
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forward saying in a loud -- it violated right to privacy. this is a landmark ruling in the department of justice says it leaves the surveillance is legal. it is one ruling that this indicates how edward snowden continues to make a splash as we debate. >> some people thought he should have been " time magazine" man of the year. the big thing with the nsa is the judge said to appeal it right away. storyr next front-page has to do with the change in the way big pharma promotes its medicine. glaxosmithkline says it will stop paying doctors. it will change its compensation for sales. it's not clear whether other drug makers will follow the lead but they been in hot water in china on allegations that it ride hospitals, doctors, and officials.
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it they $3 billion to resolve u.s. allegations that him properly promoted medicine. this could change the way that doctors are paid to recommend certain medicines. that bears watching. finally, it is the time of the year when global wall street gets its expectations managed down on year-end bonuses. estimates that bonuses may rise 10% across the board. there should be a shift in who gets the bulk of that payment. mnj and bond traders will probably make as much were the winners will be hedge funds, asset managers and any one who has to do with ipo's. >> the shift is going on. it is back and forth every year. the bonuses get paid when? >> about february. >> in london, they thought they would get onus is up 44%. >> are they limited their.
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>> obviously not. suggest they pay a lot of taxes on said bonuses. storiese our front-page so let's go to washington. it senate will vote on budget and compromises in the air but after that, schmidt, cook, myers stopped by for a photo op. they agree not to steal each other's code red is for 20 minutes as the president them up on a photo shoot. that's go to peter cook. debate today, the vote, how important is this? >> it's important because without this vote from the senate in favor of this mini
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budget agreement organized by patty murray and paul ryan, we have a threat of to more government shutdowns over the next two years. the expectation is they will get the 60 votes they need today at 10:00 in the morning. there could be more drama here than people realize. yesterdayp-flopping when republican said they would vote and then pulled back. 60 votes is the threshold test. to expectation is they want get home for the holidays so we will see those 60 votes. >> is our senate becoming more like our house? >> with the changes in the senate rules, that is the argument republicans have made. we are not there yet. it will still be the saucer that cools. the animosity right now between republicans and democrats over these rule changes and the possibility that if republicans took over, they could up the ante is out there. if you see the filibuster go away, it will be a different place. these techout
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executives going to the white house? they want to prevent it from becoming a photo op. the original presentation was simply for these tech ceo's to come to the white house and talk about the improvements and the problems that healthcare.gov has. talksaid they also want to about the surveillance programs and the harm it is doing to their businesses as we try to get involved in the cloud business and parts of the world. they are getting blow by because of -- they are getting blowback because of the government. the court decision yesterday is on the agenda for discussions at the white house. both healthcare and the nsa surveillance program. >> thank you so much. our guest is this our is felix gillette. he graced the cover of "louisburg is this week -- of
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"bloomberg businessweek." are earnings making any money? >> they are blackberry losses. the question is how bad will it be? on friday is the first time the new leadership at blackberry will get a chance to make the case of what they will do from here on out. came in recently and said very little. he said we are not for sale and we are still here and not dead but what will you do? >> how much is the canadian government involved? >> they have said they did not intervene earlier and did not want chinese investors to take over. blackberry is involved in mobile security. they blocked that. they are involved. >> isn't the focus on whether they will break up the company? >> everyone is looking at the
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different teases and how can you rake it down and what is valuable in their. i think that makes sense. it's hard to see what strategy is as a standalone company. >> you wonder how many earnings reports they will have. mean losses reports. it's all rigged. >> we will have a single best chart that compares blackberry to another company. >> a mystery company? >> that is coming up later. >> facebook is about to sell video ads. it will sell the spots this week and they will play automatically regardless of whether users click on them. thebook is trying to grab $66 billion that advertisers will be spending on u.s. advertising and an official announcement could come today. nasdaqjudge rules that has to face investor claims over its handling of the companies ipo.
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investors allege they suffered $500 million in damages in the exchange's handling of the may, 2000 12 ipo. a clean audit for herbalife. last threeof its fiscal years found no material changes. this marks another setback to hedge fund manager bill ackman who called herbalife a pyramid scheme. he has lost $500 million wedding against the company. -- betting against the company. >> carl icon is on the other side of this. bonuses are out at herbalife. >> it is bonus season and it has been ipo season all year long. we have another high-profile ipo this week. amc is pricing tonight. that is next on "bloomberg surveillance." oncan watch interviews
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bloombergapp. ♪
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>> here is your homework for this morning -- schwarzman, on "market makers." before that, read the matthew levine perfect view article essay on blackstone group. and hilton hotels. it will explain why steve schwarzman is the smartest man on the planet and a great donor to the new york public library. that is later this morning on bloomberg television.
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this is "bloomberg surveillance." we begin a two-day fed meeting today and michael mckee is week to give us perspective. scarlet fu is with us as well. she fell asleep in a big red chair. >> i did that last night because i went to a movie theater and saw something on a big screen. >> you have kids, you do that anyway. >> the movie was way too loud. i went to go see " captain phillips." it was not bad. let's move on to the bigger picture. moviegoers like me are sitting in the plush amc theater seats and their ticket fees are going to china. the company is owned it company owned by china's third richest man and the company will go
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public. amc is not one of the biggest ipo's but one of the more interesting ones. >> amc was bought in 2012 so that is a quick turnaround for $2.6 billion. they raised more than $350 million. it is supposed to price after the close of trading today. robberydy owns a conglomerate, hotels in china and other types of commercial properties and residential properties. he is also working on building a big movie studio city. kind of a hollywood in china. this guy is interested in entertainment and interested in u.s. entered tenement in particular. he is now bringing this company public. >> all of hollywood is gearing money toward the chinese audience. not a lot of people realize this
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is a company owned by a chinese conglomerate and the chinese billionaire. there are many other chinese owned companies that we kind of tend to forget. >> exactly, not as many as you might think. the acquisitions were done with some fanfare. lenovo is one that comes to mind, buying the vc business from ibm. it is all branded lenovo. for three years after, they were still branded ibm and then they had this they of celebration where they peeled off the ibm stickers and put on the lenovo acquisitions. the smithfield acquisition is much more profile and more recent. >> sausages was a national risk. >> they somehow made it through. >> the idea that julie talks about of the chinese coming in.
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we worry about computers and gasoline, is there a melding of this relationship with chinese business? >> there has to be at some point. it's an important market and in entertainment especially. the way american movies are made is essentially to appeal to overseas audience. s. it drives the creative process so it is important that those products are being consumed. if it's owned by the chinese, that continues -- that encourages cooperation. chinese audiences like bittersweet endings where there is a lot of drama and tragedy in the end. talk about the other china-u.s. deal. becausee has not been of the obstacles between the u.s. and china, historically -- the smithfield deal might be a turning point was close in september after getting congressional scrutiny for the
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flow of pork between the u.s. and china. this is the 10 year look at yield flow between the u.s. and china. there have been about 700 deals and they were pretty sizable when you look at them altogether. these are the terminated deals, and oil andal, gas was an area of concern when it came to regulators and congress looking at that particular deal. it's a question of what kind of deals you will get going forward. a movie chain seems relatively innocuous. >> they are not going after lockheed martin, thank you so much. >> we have more to discuss. 78% is the percentage of nfl players that declare bankruptcy within five years of retiring from the nfl. we will discuss the business behind injured football players coming up on "surveillance."
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if you missed our interviews, you watch them on apple tv. ♪
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morning, everyone, "bloomberg surveillance." it's a quiet couple of days because of the fed meeting. >> we will start with europe. new car sales rose for the third straight month in november, the longest stretch of gains in three years. sales are up 9/10 of one percent last month. registrations in germany, france, and italy are falling or
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it car sales in europe were close the lowest levels since 1990. in the u.s., record record number of people will be driving or flying over the holidays. aaa predicts 94 million people will take a trip of 50 miles or more. is official holiday period one day longer than last year. monday night football was last night and a 61-year-old you'll goal with one minute left lifted winbaltimore ravens to a over the detroit lions. it was the sixth field goal of the game for the ravens. he accounted for all the team points. will mohamed el-erian speak to us? he is a giant jets fan.
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>> that will not happen this year. >> the first super bowl in new york and neither team is in it. kickers have a longer duration of career. let's go to the morning must read. >> we will talk about obama care and the president talked desk is talking with tech executives. will obama care fade? >> honesty from washington. >> people still oppose the auto bailout even though those companies are back and making money. >> you wonder where we will be in 12 months.
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>> is there anything the tech ceo's can do to change things? >> they believe it is more than photo shoot. thing inext big silicon valley is hiring women, next. ♪
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>> good morning, everyone. we are on apple tv and other tvs as well. thank you for watching. let's get to a data check.
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it is boring. data check, three reds and a green. 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, maybe the data will pick up. you have movers and losers? >> herbalife is up 9.5%. bill ackman has been betting against it but herbalife says price waterhouse coopers says it found no changes in a re-audit going back to 2010. givinge dropped 4.5% back some of the previous sessions 8.7% advance and sprint might make a bid. >> interesting set of companies. silicon valley is going through a change. men have lost and dominated most companies. 3/4 of new hires have been men
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in that industry. until now. in the past year, 60% of new hires at tech companies have been women. does that matter? we have the cofounder of women 2.0 and she joins us now. it is an interesting transition. we are told that it is almost impossible to develop computer games for little girls but when you get to the computer things that big girls use, that adults use, it is primarily women. this seems to be a tectonic shift. right, the totally number when users on social networks are women. i like to think that technology is growing up. we are seeing tech infiltrate things like education and finance. that allows for other types of profiles to enter because it's not just about building software. funding is in education
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led by a woman. is a business? coming up on >> >> yes, we say software is eating the world. are the women not being hired as programmers but more as sales and administrative? >> you cannot make that generalization. some of the people at the top of these companies are still engineers. it is a mix of talents. is it just that time is marching on and we have the idea of more women coming out of top programs? i think of marissa myers. is one, i think that piece. it's also about the diversification of tech. andn come out of education they think they can make a tech
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company. been easier for women to move into management roles in technology than other industries? startups arel, aristocratic. you have to have a good idea. if you have that together, there is a new dearth of investors. i can rattle off a number of investors that showed 20% of their founders are female. are not a thought leader but you actually do something. confabs go to all the and everyone hangs out, they are all tasteful in black -- what is the thing for next year for women in technology? >> it is just for them to have an opportunity to enter. >> they get in the door and prove themselves like everyone
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else. >> absolutely, that levels the playing field. >> who is emily white at snap chat? she was previously at instagram. >> she made her way up. fromhe's got stock options google, snap chat, instagram. >> she is sitting pretty right now. executes markg zuckerberg's vision at facebook. you see her imprint on the facebook functions or is she doing what someone else envisioned? >> that's a good point because the vision of a company comes from the founder. the changes that will come in the tech and a stable come from the founding level, not the investor level. you will see a different culture when there is a woman. here is david brooks today -- this is a fabulous essay on
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thought leaders. it's true. you have a family shift, how do you fold that into what you see with women 2.0. ? >> women are setting the culture the way they want to do it. flexiblelves being where they need to go off and have a child. >> that has happened and industries across america as women have moved in. it happens for software and internet businesses in general, does it matter that women are in charge now? how will it change that? >> it's important because of
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what we talked about at the beginning. the numbers are staggering in terms of users and the number of people that buy products online. 72% of daily views on facebook or on women. daily active users. chat is 60%. >> you still here the controversy surrounding programmers but and that periodically pops up. it seems on social networks that companies get criticized. they say it's bad for business. >> it's bad for business and it's real. that's still there and that's hard for diversification in terms of building products. that has to change and it is slowly changing from the top. when a female friend or is there, she is ceo and changes the culture. >> we talk about e-commerce changing toward women.
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what about a gender neutral tech segment like the cloud? are we seeing more women there? >> we have not seen so much happening there just yet but women are leveraging their strength and realizing they are good at certain products of they can address their own audience. there is a way of niche businesses that could succeed. >> you come out of western ontario business school. forbig is it to be in stem women within technology? >> it is huge. you don't have to be the engineer but if you can talk the talk and be able to direct an engineer to make things happen, that is the most important thing. >> stay with us. >> coming up next, what does
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blockbuster and blackberry happen, and? our chart of the day is coming up next on on bloomberg television, streaming on your phone, your tablet, and bloomberg.com. ♪
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>> good morning, "bloomberg
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surveillance." she is the physical chemist from east germany and has had eight years tour of duty, german chancellor angela merkel, sworn in for a third term as chancellor. our international correspondent hans nichols lives in berlin. what is that about? an important moment for all of germany? and important for europe because angela merkel has 504olidated power and has votes in some 650 seats in parliament. whatever she wants to do for the next four years, she will find the votes for it. she can use -- she can lose a few hundred. she has control and domination over this parliament. >> who did she defeat to get that majority? who was the loser? is the social party
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but she will be governing with them. whenever angela merkel governs with another coalition, that coalition partner loses. the spd could have less strength after the election in four years. the ministries she has had to give up on this grand coalition are a bit of a poisoned chalice. it is anentry check -- energy change. she has given the defense ministry to one of her allies. she will have the first female defense minister in germany. whata merkel always gets she wants and it seems like her -- arets are less happy just happy to be in her shadow. >> what will she do with this majority? nothings talk about moving forward in europe until after she up got elected.
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is this election going to galvanize her in a different direction? the finance minister will remain and he will continue to make the nationalist case within germany that you cannot have this european wind down of a single banking resolution. wants to flip a switch and save the bank but they are saying they want more safeguards and those safeguards are still in place. >> thank you so much. this is our single best chart. >> we know how blackberry is a shadow of its former self. reminiscent of another blast from the past, black foster. -- black -- blockbuster. blackberry is in yellow. they chart a similar path.
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that is concerning if you are blackberry. they were once leaders in their respective industries. they also faced formidable competitors. case, it iser's increasingly obsolete, shutting down stores. when was the last time you went to blockbuster? >> we know what happens in those medical dramas when you flatline. i'm not sure there are any blockbuster stores still open. >> they are selling out and felix gillette, you covered -- blackberry. you had a story on the oral history of blackberry. it was incredible talking to the employees of black hairy because they saw it coming and they warned executives. the market shifted when the iphone came out.
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they warned that apple is eating the market share and the founders of black area said apel don't want to use a browser on their phone. they said it will kill the batteries to quickly. they just care about security and their work e-mail. they were in denial for so long. by the time the companies said we will make this a consumer device, it was too late. the market had already gone past them. >> the ceo and cofounder of women 2.0 you have seen this company grow up. none of the cofounders, the big leaders of blackberry are women. would women have made a difference? when you have a diverse founding team, you have a 50% higher chance of roi. you are more capital efficient. whether it is gender or not, diversity is important for all companies. >> the bs factor of women is
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different than the bs factor of men? >> i did not say that. >> in a meeting, women have to every day for many different reasons. what kind of meter do they have? a little different than men. it as ake to think of masculine/feminine thing. we all hold masculine and feminine traits buried in technology it's about defining something from scratch. having a collaborative leadership style versus a dictatorship is super important. women are good at being collaborative. >> which woman is ready to manage microsoft? they do the panels with you. which one is ready to step in and microsoft? >> that's a good question. microsoft has a lot of work to do and there is culture that needs to change. they need to have someone at the top to think about culture the way google has. -- footer thinks
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about culture and square thinks about culture. >> how is meg whitman doing? >> we haven't heard much from her in a while. you,oming up, a number for three point five, that's the average number of years a player survives in the nfl and we will talk about how that fire can extend their short and brutal career. this is "bloomberg surveillance," on bloomberg television, streaming on your phone, your tablet, and bloomberg.com. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." charter has been gearing up for a bid on time warner cable. it has not signed a letter of commitment to the banks have agreed to fund a bid. get net wins antitrust approval for his deal to buy ilo,. sell the st.d to
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louis television station prompting the sale. it will be the fourth biggest owner of network affiliates is. new album became the fastest seller in its first three days pretty up was released exclusively on itunes last without any promotional marketing. that is today's company news. you also cannot download individual songs. >> it is like a flashback -- the concept album. fierce" is not in the nfl. that is like her name three names ago. >> he just learned this. >> can any other artist pull did?hat sasha fierce just
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way cool. there were 3001 hundred 26 injuries in the end last year and the injuries continue. none are more gruesome than the patriots star. the hurt makes for a brutal average three year career. of theive years, 3/4 players go bankrupt and the representatives of the stars have too many levels to deal with too much pain. us andlee is with signed his first client out of notre dame. good to have you here. what has changed in the last five years? coming up on >> the injuries of gotten more severe. are better equipped. they are getting hit harder but they are -- they feel they are more invincible because the equivalent is so good. >> take a memo -- clueless on the nfl -- total nfl pro, michael mckee -- save me. >> what happens when these guys
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come out of school? doesn't somebody teach them finance? they get an enormous amount of money and it shouldn't it be the agents that say to invest that and put it aside? insane.ng bankrupt is >> absolutely. the agent needs to be there watchdog, preventing them from entering fraudulent transactions are bad investments. handle our clients money. we put them on the right course. >> i imagine you don't have 3/4 of the players assigned to your agency. who is failing here? >> there are some agents that take the shortcuts to success. they think they can do things in a manner that are not necessarily in their client's best interest. we don't operate that way. polite, the length of
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career is different than other sports. even to the national hockey league, i get another 24 months of a big paycheck? >> that's right, there's a short window of opportunity in the nfl but if you brand your player come you can leverage that and transition him into different post career opportunities. >> peyton manning can do that. he is playing for some team in the rocky mountains. how do you rent the third line left tackle -- how do you brand the third line left tackle? >> there are varying levels of branding and opportunities you will have access to as an nfl player. if you have a client who is a starter, the nfl career gives you a platform whether it is in finance or broadcasting. you can leverage that. strahan is a success story. >> he is doing phenomenal.
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this season, we saw a couple of players had ipo's and offered shares of their future earnings. would you offer that to your clients? >> someone asked me about that before. the mostster plays difficult position for injuries, running back. they announced of the ipo and then he went on injured reserve. it is difficult due to the risk involved. >> players are often involved for not notifying their team they are feeling sick and should get medical attention. shouldn't agents do more to encourage players to sit out a game of necessary? as anu have the role agent to advise them to make the right decisions with their career being the first and foremost priority. >> over their health? >> no, their long-term career so the health is important.
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>> how much does a typical football pro make on a local automobile commercial? come on down to toyota? do they make a lot of money? >> it is more of a barter system in those situations where the dealership will give them a car to use for the next two years and give them free models in exchange for an autograph signing or an appearance. >> you can represent me. thank you so much. it's our four x report. the only thing really moving is the indonesia rupea. there is something going on there to look for. the rest is asleep. euro-yen, i'm bored. the whole board is like this. there is nothing going on. >> they are waiting for the fed. >> maybe next year will bring
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more surprises. we want to thank our guests. next hour, thee morgan stanley chief u.s. strategist adam parker will discuss the outlook for the s&p 500 in 2014 ♪
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>> the bull market will continue as corporations continue to make money. if you build it they will come. foreigners part millions, billions in american real estate. "bloomberg surveillance." good morning come everyone this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom keene, joining me, scarlet fu and michael mckee is with us as well. our guest host this hour, one of our more popular guests, adam parker. he is chief equities strategist at morgan stanley. we welcome him for a 2014 outlook. >> let's start with some good news. --lions in real estate not not affected by inflation. lowest in four years. moved closer to the bank of england's two percent target.
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we get some price data here in the u.s. at 8:30. consumer price index to only difference is ours is supposed to go higher. at 10 a.m., homebuilders housing market indexes also supposed to go up. that would be good news. day one of the two-day fed meeting. no one knows what they're going to do. tomorrow we get the rate decision. 2:00 p.m., tom and i will be covering that for you. speaking of the bank of england, mark carney testify to parliament today. in germany, chancellor angela merkel will be sworn in today for her third term and that is taking place in berlin. hans nichols waving a little flag heard all excited. >> 21 years ago, we had to cancel their remote to sicily, right? >> it does tend to happen in that part of the world.
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facebook is rolling out video advertisements this week. the first ads will be for the lions gate film, "virgin." glaxosmithkline will stop paying doctors to promote its medicine. the drugmaker will also stop the practice of linking conv compensation. critics said these practices were conflicts of interest. it is not clear what other companies will follow glaxo's lead. herbalife, the maker of vitamins and shake said that re-audits showed no material changes. herb acumen has lost as much as $5 million betting against the company. >> big day in washington ahead. the senate put the budget deal
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to a vote later today. support mounting for the compromise. the president is still busy playing catch-up from prior headaches. his meeting with top tech executives today for a rubber support on healthcare.gov and hopefully mending recent tension over and as a disclosures. washington course on it peter cook has the latest. don't want to be used here, i guess. >> these are some of the president best readies from silicon valley and they were invited to come to the white house to talk about healthcare.gov. the problems on the website but also the improvement and the message we're getting is that there was some pushback from the tech executives. they wanted to put the government surveillance programs on the front burner and that the government's actions had hurt their business. well.s on the agenda as it is a who's who of silicon valley. you have the heads of yahoo!,
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twitter, eric schmidt of google and tim cook of apple, just to name a few. people the president has. with before that there is a little more tension in the room then there otherwise might be. >> does the president want to meet head-to-head with these leaders on the nsa scandal? >> it is hurting their businesses and they can document that. eight companies got together last week and sent this letter to the white house saying you need to reassess these programs because they are hurting our business. scaling them back would be appropriate to seven of those eight ceos will be represented in that room today. ceo,lso have eight tnt they have to talk to the president about this. a lot of them contributors and supporters in the past or if you that listening to them on these issues, then it is not clear who he will be listing two. it is our indication that the white house is prepared to take some steps to scale this back. whether that is satisfactory to members of congress as well,
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that is a big question. there's a big whoosh for legislation in congress and that core decision from yesterday only adding fuel to that fire. >> speaking of congress, we are going to get the budget passed and we are going to move on after today? >> well, my, this is washington. everything is relative here. we expect a vote at 10:00 this morning. you need 60 to be able to advance. it passed overwhelmingly in the house of representatives. john boehner and paul ryan themselves lobbying senators to back this bill. the vote is good to be tighter than people thought but at the end of the day, democrats seem pretty confident they have the votes to advance it. final package passed later today. suddenly we have the threat of government shut down off the table for the next two years. the debt ceiling still around the corner. that deadline is february 7. >> chief washington correspondent peter cook. >> absolutely. adam.s is
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this got my attention. with the two percent dividend, a three percent net should die share buyback >> you have some buybacks and have the dividends. a think the main thing to focus on, the main risks would be what deccacause volatility that is what i'll eyes are on. >> are you surprised by the gloom i read out in the blogosphere? the world is coming to an end, get out, get out.
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i would suggest it is harmful to people's retirement plans. >> we all know that we can't run a deficit forever. we can have massive accommodation forever. today'sg about corporate earnings seems overcooked. at lower prices at that there'd be a correction. what could cause me to be afraid of the earnings. that is the key thing. >> when we fold and what the fed is likely to say or not say in today's meeting, use a tapering his meeting -- use a tapering is good overall. why is that? >> historically, from these low levels there's a strong relationship where higher real yields gives you a higher pe ratio. as long as you can dream growth is going to be higher than that is good for equities. everyone is worried about tapering, but the truth is as long as it'll tighten for a long time there's a big difference between tapering and moving the front end. i'm sitting the farthest away
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from you, but i get the awkward question. 2013, paul, mystic by 25% hurt everybody at wall street got it wrong. how much confidence can you have and what you are predict in? >> our call was pretty good actually. we have been bullish since early march on the market. >> this is important, mike. there's is a distinction between being in the market and cautious . going toishness of cash. i don't see many strategists saying go to cash. >> we beat that every year. this year again, last year, the you before. we have a strategy that is about keptocks, average market the stock. we beat the s&p this year again and for six years. that is my job, give investment advice relative to the market heard we got bullish in early
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march. as for hard to get the pe ratio right here at our current guess is what matters for that ratio is what could cause volatility. i think the biggest risk is they taper and then we get a soft patch in the u.s. economy next april or may and then suddenly you're saying where is the liquidity. there, but iks out am focused on why with the earnings estimates collapse right now. my view is until i get more cost and place it is going to be hard. >> that disconnect the between corporate health -- >> you know that old advertisement about trail and blather? >> i remember. >> you get can straight spending
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on capital hiring. going to be either complete efficacy in the policy or earnings will have a lot of volatility. >> there is that efficacy word. adam parker is with us as well. he will be with us through the entire hour. a lot to talk about in the equity markets. we will have full coverage of the two-day fed meeting, 2 p.m. in the afternoon. >> thetaper talk is just beginning. is heating up. we take a look at how real estate response. vulnerable is it? ♪
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>> good morning come everybody. i'm tom keene. this is "bloomberg surveillance." being a market with too many things is bad. .ewer items is better in 2004 this is level three cf eight. did people flunk the exam over this? i want to be simpler next year.
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company specifics are mattering more. one of the problems was that macro was mattering a lot to returns. you could say i did a deep dive -- the fed, europe, china, always macro issues matter. macrosd thing is that are mattering yes and company .pecifics are mattering more macros are mattering less. what we have today? whenve in our dispersion, you see an opportunity you have to make it bigger bet. our call is more concentrated portfolio, fewer names. >> one morgan stanley looks at retail and the individual -- >> added know that much of that side of the
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business. they tend to have a lot of names in the portfolio and they don't want to take risk. it depends on the tracking. we'reying to be the s&p's talking about. and anita hundred names are hundred 25 names. -- i need 100 names or 125 names. our biggest that is in health care. >> continuing in health care after the moonshot lester? relativeinue to think to staples and utilities and telecoms. there.s just mispricing >> old-line technology? >> our biggest bed is in software. i think it is more productivity bet. the's where to park from blue chip consensus economics. i think companies are little too nervous to put buildings in place and hire people. they will invest in productivity.
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i think you'll see that software business above average goal. >> 10 seconds, bitcoin? >> i don't know. i think the dollar has been an interesting mover up against the euro. miller,g up, matthew 142 days of bitcoin. matt miller on bitcoin.
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>> good morning, everyone. this is art for the question. we need a record turnout. even those of you who would not ,now sasha fierce as beyonce can any other artist pull off what beyonce just did with problem? this is rectangular. in one fell swoop she took us back to the 70s. you buy the album only, not
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individual singles. good for her. back to the 70s. oro marketing blitz anything. >> congratulations for columbia records to have occurs to go with their superstar. with me michael mckee and scarlet fu who has at home for -- who has it in her car for the ride home. >> the nsa's collection of phone records probably illegal. a lawsuitway for alleging the practice is also unconstitutional. it may not go forward. it is a first image district judges weighed in on the surveillance program. new car sales in europe rising for the third straight month in november. percent 9/10 of one last month. even with recent gains come across sales in europe still at the lowest level since at least 1990. sports, a 60 one yard field goal
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with less than a minute left led to baltimore's two and 18-16 win over the detroit lions. he counted for all of his team's points. knocking the new york jets other left contention. misery loves company here in new york this year. >> the mix are doing so well. >> let's hone in on the rangers. this is our last hope right now. and retailcent jobs sales showing a stronger economy. the question is when will the central bank began trimming its bond buying program? one industry that may feel the pages real estate. >> maybe not in new york. the pinch may be domestic, but they can have her an immediate effect on real estate does. what about that foreign money? foreigners come with a strong
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euro. is it a surprise? how much cass have you ever seen in a suitcase? >> a lot. because of the charity agreements, i really can't disclose that. >> what kind of suitcase was at? >> a loosely town one. vuitton one. new >> what is a safe haven? >> they're bringing their money here and putting it here in real estate.
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but in anven perhaps, increasingly hot market, you look at san francisco real millennium tower sold for -- over in new york, 15 central park west, 6.7 million in 2008 now $17 million listing price in 2000 "bloomberg 13. correct shift remember what we're talking about the elite people around the world, they all have cash and they have to put the cash somewhere. the interest rates, mortgages and dollar don't really affect that one percent of the elite market around the world. >> they're not paying attention to the currencies? >> they do.
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that is more for their investors to buy one or $2 million. red hat talk about the people buying the $10 million and up. >> for bloomberg radio worldwide, this is a big deal that scarlet mentions in san francisco and miami as well. city landscapes are literally changing because of your clients. storiesike a hundred 85 or whatever. they're building the new tall tall thing on park avenue. i was at the steinway building where they have the drawing. are we going to look like dubai >> i don't think so. you have landmark buildings here that you cannot not down. you have restrictions about how tall you can build buildings, but you have to remember also that we have buildings like 10 madison square park as an example. we are talking about 25th street which is actually fetching around $4000 per square foot on the high floors.
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the landscape is changing and the neighborhoods are changing. --is not any longer only century park west is also downtown. >> you live in one of these kind of places. >> i live in this place in manhattan called east of 2nd avenue. i'm not sure if you know where that is. [laughter] >> is there a wall street area? we talk about the buildings of foreigners living, but what about the people in wall street to get the big bonuses? >> absolutely. they mix and mingle with the foreigners? >> they do. most of the people that are living there are actually goldman sachs people. it is not only the foreign money , you also have local money mingling with the foreign money. >> the morgan stanley people live above the goldman sachs people.
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jackie triplett ski, really appreciate it -- jackie terpli tszky, we greatly appreciated. it. ♪
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm scarlet fu with tom keene and michael mckee. is may be surprised just to excepting this virtual currency instead of cash. take a listen. i just made an appointment to
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get a walk while we go to a grocery store in brooklyn and buy some food and drinks with it klein. this is steve. greene whichn fort is the heart of bitcoin merchants in new york city because they are within a few blocks radius here. my shopping this week for the remaining 12 is a bitcoin. i saw something that tom keene is going to absolutely love. genesee cream ale. i am bringing these back for you, tom.
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this is a bar that takes bitcoin and pretty much every internet bitcoin kid knows about it. at that outcome here and check it out. -- i thought that i would come here and check it out. >> joining us is our editor at large from bloomberg west. tip in bitcoin? >> no, i tipped in dollars. does you everything that i had been using dollars for on a daily basis lately has been taping. i have bought a plane ticket with bitcoin, i got john mayer tickets for tonight at the berkeley center with it going. >> john mayer tickets with bitcoin? how hard is it to find out who takes bitcoin and who doesn't? >> is pretty easy. you're seeing headlines that someone was buying a house for
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bitcoin. it is pretty easy to do with a third-party. some creams for you. .> there are wrinkles that are getting smoothed out. >> so what is cory johnson here for besides a gimmick? >> during the course of the 12 days of bitcoin, what is a value of the bitcoin today? >> last night when i left work 30.as 700 >> there's a quote of $1200 in the last week. >> this is cold.
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i have not had a genesee cream ale in a while. >> if i recall, this is terrible beer. >> outtake to white hots and a red hot. >> gives a volatility report. couldsomething else you buy this with, it's called cash. is there any point to bitcoin for the average person? >> absolutely. if you're looking to send money overseas, for example if you are a foreign worker that was a transfer funds back home, it is instant and basically free as opposed to a lot of other methods. for the average catalyst ago by jenny. the average american does not have issues. it has been an important tool for people in the spirit of
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skyrocketing inflation. >> what about buying drugs? --ugs scarlet? have i bought drugs, scarlet i think it would be very difficult to get involved. once you do, you can. >> you can come back tomorrow. those rochester dancers? >> i was a little ahead of you. >> other know you guys are smoking. matt miller and cory johnson with their genesee cream ale's.
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right now there's not a lot of movement in futures. futures up marginally. .62%.will change it 10 point >> we're streaming all her interviews at bloomberg.com. video page and audio. with radio as well. also, big announcement heard we are out on apple tv. thrill to join the apple tv crew. i am tom keene, our guest host is adam parker. he is at morgan stanley the chief u.s. equity strategist as well. scarlet fu as well. michael mckee here. the excitement of a two-day fed meeting. >> this is a long anticipated one. this one does have some impact. gears ando switch talk about small business
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owners. we know that they know about the aca, obamacare, but they're split on whether it will be good or bad for them very according to hartford financial services, 42% of these business owners per day the changes will cut into ours. 8% will haltgh future hiring. let's start with the survey in that report because it sounds like the aca is that for the small business office, but can he see their something good about for them as well? >> good morning, scarlet. this was our third survey of small businesses and i think what is important about the hartford survey is we think it is the largest of its type in the u.s.. i think small business owners are confused, first of all. they don't understand it and that was very clear. many of the smallest as mrs. to whom it doesn't apply thought it noted, half of the small businesses and
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entrepreneurs don't think it is a good ring and about half will take tough actions. reduce jobs, not our people or reduce hours. what is interesting about this survey is the scars of the last financial recession are still very fresh, very fresh attitude keywords it came out of the survey are that businesses for entrepreneurs. out at all like the large sector, increasingly cautious and conservative about risk- taking. >> what does that say? what is there to do list on health-care? >> i think they need to communicate better. >> it is so misunderstood, tom. entrepreneurs in particular making decisions about their are not investing are hiring because in many cases misunderstanding. thatthink that the step
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congressman ryan and senator murray took, whatever one thinks of the outcome, there was action. uncertainty is the presentation of theme to the survey. >> you're known for actual group practice. can you tell you policyholders that there group contracts are going to go up next year? are they going to see higher fees, higher premiums? >> i can't make that statement in general because we are not in the health insurance business, per se. i think low interest rates as we have discussed before have more of an impact on pricing than aca does. i think what aca has created, however, whether it is in worker's compensation business or in group life and disability, is uncertainty because those are benefits as well and what the final outcome is between them and aca is really unknown. rex tillerson and shouldn't he start to go away as this gets -- do need to see
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additional strength in the economy? mike, the strong economy kills a lot of ills. that is the shame right now. and autious conservatism much lower risk-taking by entrepreneurs is causing them not to hire. >> people will hire if they have the business. there is pent-up economic energy. the more certainty we get out of washington and if aca can be better communicated and understood, particularly by those entrepreneurs that it doesn't even impact. it will be a catalyst for growth. they really important survey. look for that on their website. >> the hartford leading the way in trying to determine how small businesses feel the effects of the aca. >> to that point, michael. how long is still rolling out? >> well into 2014.
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take until at least 2015 to really be able to read heard cracks coming up on , is shelance," beyonce disrupting the music business again? >> "bloomberg surveillance." is brought to you by invesco. explore intentional investing with invesco.
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>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance."
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working smart on in the loop this morning. onyou all work smart here "surveillance." you don't need any advice or help. genesee cream ale. >> i'm not really ready for my show. >> work smart. >> we have some smart people on the program. we actually came to an agreement heard the senate going to vote today. >> you're asking the tough question about the jets. up.ice of them to get >> the other person we have is harry wilson, who as you recall was part of the auto task force
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that restructure general motors. we will get his take on what dan ackerson did yesterday. possibly putting into dividend for general motors. >> very good. betty liu. >> one for the road. here is one to start off with. itsng expenses a boost in dividend. $10 billion repurchase plan that is in addition to the 800 million that was leftover from its 2007 buyback authorization. going shares up by two point 25%. 2.25%. >> you can see there is certainly room for appreciation. >> this one, you knew this was coming one day, facebook will
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start selling video ads. this is according to the wall street journal. you can't avoid it. this may be announced as early as today. facebook shares are the most actively traded company stock in the three market come up by 1.8% to just below $55 per share. >> here's one that may have longer-term implications. jpmorgan chase along with bank of america and a couple of others, capital one and hsbc are being sued for possibly manipulating credit card fees. when not talking about a small amount of money, we're talking about $54 billion a year according to the lawsuit. we will see where that goes. at the moment, not having a huge impact on the stocks. bank of america down by little bit, jpmorgan up a little bit worried this could gain some traction. >> onto the back to boeing and the success they've had in the last 10 years. adam, you can make money in stocks. 99 out of 100 of our viewers and listeners don't know that owing is up 14.9% per year for the
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last 10 years. i can't make money in stocks. i think most of the public doesn't know the relative return of your world from bill gross is world. you can make money in stocks. you also can make money if you get a bonus? is that true? >> we will continue when we return on "surveillance." ♪
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>> interest rate is 0.2. annual. that is pretty cheap money. like japan, south korea is also investing in infrastructure as mongolia strives to become a major regional player.
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." our guest host is adam parker, chief strategist at morgan stanley. charter communications is gearing up for bid on time warner cable. this is according to people with knowledge of the matter. charter has not signed a letter of commitment yet but the banks have agreed to fund the bid for charter cable. jeanette agreed to sell a st. louis television station. the deal mexican at the fourth biggest owner of major network
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owner affiliates. the judge denied the request to dismiss negligence claims over the software. that is today's company news from the files of bloomberg west. the facebook deal was as important nasdaq as it was to facebook. >> you see on bloomberg radio the classic video of them all piled up. twitter had their ipo. >> it is business, but it is not. risks he really high. this is beyonce. for those of you not up to speed
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, wear a bowtie and a dark suit, she's better than good at singing a song and minting millions. this time she's had enough. i'm doing it myself. i believe it was the support of columbia records such as when out and released a whole album, forget about the singles silliness. >> no fanfare. >> used itunes as a distribution point. from ticked up the songs itunes bypassing the traditional way singles are released to radio and the numbers are huge. over the0 plus albums weekend, making itunes history. >> the concept here is 10 or 12 or 16 songs at once versus a single song where other songwriters on the album actually get a payday. they get a payday because it is not an individual single. >> is it easy to take a risk when your spouse is a billionaire? >> i think that is a fair question and you wonder how much
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of this is transferable to other parts of the industry, but to copyright and the value of that is one of the nation's great exports, this is a hallmark -- a landmark occasion. jay-z of course did his own thing with the way he released his latest album with samsung. was just wonder if this 1964, tom, and the beatles ileased a song on itunes, suspect beyonce would not be close to the record. >> we put out a twitter question today that ask in any other artist pull off what the odds adjusted with her album. you're asking about the beatles. what about today? some of the answers, only a few others.
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lady gaga draws an album with a lot of fanfare and it didn't do nearly as well. >> david boyd put out an album recently that came out as a surprise to people but didn't do that well. about it requires a core fan base of 10 million people to pull that off. >> comedy fantasies have on twitter? >> 13 million followers. >> 54 million page likes for beyonce. taylor swift. there are many others with the base of loyal fans. >> oh come on, mumford and sons? please. >> beyonce, making itunes history.
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clark five. >> i would've done that. i did download to dave clark five. we're going to switch gears here and talk about actual economic stuff. starts a meeting later today. last meeting of the year, taper talk heating up. investors watching ben bernanke closely. the real question is not just what will he do, but what will he say. it is good to be his last press conference, but will it be his last meeting? janet yellen likely to be confirmed as a new fed chairman by the end of this week. then he would have two people essentially with the authority. this is only happened once before when paul volcker was elevated from new york fed president to replace william miller. they were both on the fed. before that time. here you have two people overlapping as ben bernanke saying all right, rather than have people pay more attention to her, i'm going to resign early because it doesn't really matter. >> who is going to run the
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meeting? >> that is not a done deal. yellen. be janet if she's confirmed this week and then bernanke leaves, otherwise ben bernanke is still in charge. this be market moving tomorrow? >> at think people are worried about that. the markets have done a lot and active management is doing better. worried that the relative performance and gains could be over. markets going to act irrationally to anything? >> or has been this pavlovian response. i think if you think about what tapering means, it is a good thing. our call is it is really hard for good economic news to be bad for markets and he were near as long as the bad economic news was good. i don't see the reaction to any tapering being a sustained negative down trade if it is really about the economy getting
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better. >> should restart now or wait until january or march? >> a think the sooner they do it the better. i don't think they want to keep -- i think they should slowly unwind it and communicate clearly that it is not tightening. >> what did you learn in the bond debacle of july and august? >> one thing i learned was that the currencies and rates of some of the emerging markets, the fragile five that morgan stanley calls them, the demand is stronger than it would've been without the qe. that is a big risk. one of the risk is if we taper, do you start seeing your movements? >> that is what we're seeing with indonesia. >> i think indonesia is really front and center. i have to get smart on that. >> you do have some economic
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asa to announce at 8:30 a.m. well. >> inflation. >> bloomberg surveillance continues on bloomberg radio. in the meantime a bid to takeover with my agenda. i'm looking at bonuses this morning. everyone's favorite topic or it could be a big one for wall street. bonuses are expected to rise as much as 10% across-the-board. bonuses might be different than what has been in the past. andecessarily be the m&a bond guys. anyone having anything to do with ipos. it is a big ipo year. >> there's a change in the way people look at how bonuses are paid. it was always the asset managers, depending on the year, but it was always the people who were gettinga who the big mansions.
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>> when you look at financials and how they're managing their cost structures, that is going to be a concern into 2014. which segment of the sector do you like? >> it is the fourth but we are really tearing it off. we like capital market sensitive banks, we like asset managers heard we like capital markets. we are more cautious on regional banks. a lot of the regional banks do better when the front end of the interest rate comes up not just -- i don't think they can -- tightening is different from ta tapering. >> your call for the s&p 500 and exactly the> is not
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on scene like in terms of its marketing. >> all you need to do now is get 15 million likes on your facebook age. " onmberg surveillance. radio continues. ♪
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>> good morning. it is tuesday, december 17. you are "in the loop." i am betty liu. federal reserve policymakers
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beginning their meeting, deciding on whether to back off on quantitative easing. we will talk about the fed's options with mohamed el-erian, who will be with us in a little bit. president obama meeting with company executives from apple, yahoo!, facebook, google, to talk about surveillance and healthcare.gov. the senate will start considering the budget compromise passed last week by the house. six republicans are expected to vote for the bill. senator orrin hatch is one of the besthe says it is that republicans could have hoped for. all day we are focused on congress. 56 pieces of legislation have been signed into law, tying the low record. offhouse took 191 days

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