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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  January 3, 2014 1:00am-2:01am EST

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>> a major storm hits the u.s., grounding thousands of flights and closing highways as blizzard conditions hit the northeast. increases after a gauge of china service industries south. the u.k. retail sector experienced challenging christmas trading conditions. >> welcome to countdown. >> a major winter storm is
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hitting the united states as we speak. the northeast is seeing blizzard conditions from new york to maine. the worst of it is happening right now. boston, it might get up to 14 inches of snow. new york city, up to 19 inches. more than 2000 flights have been canceled. 6000 have been delayed. quite fascinating. new york and new jersey governor's declaring a state of emergency. let's bring it back to the u.k., shall we? retail, mixed fortune. big discounts failed to spur last-minute christmas shopping.
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this is a predominant force in the united kingdom. there have been a lot of concern about clothing retailers. fashion sales are a concern. -- haveing the likes of done far better. many anticipating the next will be setting the scene for us. -- trying to get the foot all -- football. they lost their chief financial officer as well. we are expecting sales to rise, but it will be eyes -- they did raise them back and knocked over. >> next had a pretty good
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quarter. >> they raised their profit guidance. this is where they have been front and center. what they really think is complementing them, they want to expand the amount of stores that they have. >> i would never do it, but i understand the idea. i have to get in my car anyway to go to the store. >> doesn't make life quicker? quicker?t it make life >> you do not have to make a decision in advance, but i do get your point. >> it is how these people are going out and funding the shopping. 25% paid for their christmas by borrowing 42%. a time where we are talking about a recovery in this country.
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what is fueling that? i would like to know who is buying the iphones on a credit card. it will have rise, a big impact on the u.k.. >> 2014 may be a big year for the u.k. housing market. they expect prices to rise the share. debate in the last 12 months. you have seen the value of your home go up. the trend we have seen in the u.k. for the past decade. demand outstripping supply. .hey are boosting demand one billion pounds of mortgage applications, the first 12 weeks of this game. this is not just about what happens to the housing market.
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the bank of england has tried to cut off the lending. -- theyknow the demand are starting to get on the bandwagon in terms of building once again. we get construction figures later today. >> we have seen construction rising without a doubt. demand is rising much, much faster than construction. but it is cheap as well. >> exactly. >> they are afraid they will miss out. prices rose in my neighborhood 12%. the concern is if you do not buy now, you could get priced out. >> i went home over christmas and that's all it -- met up with my friends and they were worried about the housing market.
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they thought they would miss out in 12 months because they would be priced out of the market. what's are the unintended consequences of low interest rates? what happens after rates go up? it talks about the amount of families that were falling into debt carol -- peril. by 2018, that could rise to 2 million if interest rates rise to five percent. even if interest rates rise to three percent, it you would have 1.1 million families in debt peril. if you are spending more money on food, energy costs and your mortgage, you will be spending less money -- >> that is what everybody says they will not raise rates high. that is perfectly understandable if rates are at three percent in 2018.
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>> we will be discussing this today. thes advocating that may be united kingdom needs to adopt ways.f that u.s. they have to manage -- it is a difficult balancing act. wanting to foster growth in the housing market. >> low rates are here to stay. they keep saying that. stay.tes are here to >> rates will rise at some point and they have to be prepared for that. >> that is quite the forecast. >> talk about the oil market. russia and the u.s. argue over human rights.
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the fate of edward snowden, the fate of the world's biggest energy company have found something they can agree on. on a well in start the arctic this year. extremely difficult conditions. we have been behind the scenes cooperating and working together since 2011. if all goes according to plan, they will cap this reserve. just that one well caps on reserves larger than all of the oil found in the north sea already. is quite amazing that these two companies are putting politics to one side. they are working with one another. big -- thee the world's biggest reserve and the world's largest output.
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if you set aside the state producers. what they lack is expertise in technology. it is a $78 billion company. there shares last year fell seven percent. company,35 billion largest market cap of any energy company in the world. they are drilling around the world. he had the experience, but they do not have the output -- they have the experience, but they do not have the output. the places where they can get it is quite limited. is theinteresting thing oil output in russia. ofost-soviet record high 10.6 million barrels a day. we are seeing a glut of oil almost everywhere.
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>> people were talking about scarce oil three or four years ago. it is quite the opposite. it does not mean that it will be cheap to get it out of the ground. they will be going for shale gas as well together. russia may have more shale gas than the united states. if you ask the russians, why aren't you going after the shale resources now? they have all of this easier stuff to get out now. >> interesting. >> they will stay well above $100 for a barrel for a while. it is a shaky start to 2014 for emerging markets. stocks fall for most indexes.
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find out where to invest your money, next. another case of tainted food in china. ♪
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>> time for today's company news. a fast-track consideration by an appeals court. bb say payments have been approved to businesses for fictitious losses. walmart says it is adding dna tests on food after it discovered some of the donkey meat it sold in china has fox dna. rupert murdoch 21st century fox sold its minority stake in star china tv. the sale as part of the strategy to divest from businesses in which it cannot gain a majority ownership. welcome to "countdown."
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let's take a look at some of the big currency moves overnight. we will start with dollar-yen. falling the most in about a month. you are not seeing dollar weakness across the board. we have had -- that when there is near record low. lira, record low yesterday. , fixedto bring in john income strategist at bank of america merrill lynch. we have seen some pretty vicious moves over the last couple of days. it is pretty much priced in, but if you look at some of the moves we saw in december, they were magnified by liquidity. what we're seeing now are moves, a calming down of some of those,
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they went to been too far. moves innd yields, the the currency as far as the stronger dollar continue over the coming year. they have, and awfully long way. -- they have, and awfully long way. >> is it a question of growth? we saw in theh third quarter will not be replicated in the fourth quarter. tapering is not going to go along in the smooth line. >> that is the most likely outcome, to be honest. if the fed finally manages to make that first step. they are likely to persist with that policy. growth is better in the u.s. and some of the data surprised to the upside in december, there are lots of froth -- flaws that
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need to be repaired. >> we have ben bernanke speaking in philadelphia this afternoon. what are you anticipating? >> the central bankers and then we move into janet yellen's time at the fed. we will strike this balance between confidence and investment to pick up and keep the recovery strengthening and trying to rein in some of those expectations and key people -- keep people calm. >> more talking up or calming? calm in,le bit more reminding people this recovery is fairly early in its evolution and it is coming on the back of a dreadful recession. there are still some serious headwinds out there.
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>> how can we go about calming people down? hawkish.ly how is someone going to calm people down? these guys will want to -- >> we have to see how the transition unfolds and the market will be a bit cautious as to how much weight to put on things. with some of bernanke's history and going back to greenspan, the fed chairman sets the debate and others tend to follow. projections every three months. the vast majority of fed members are looking at either 2015 or 2016 for the first hike. the markets are likely to stay fairly contained.
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you see yields continuing to rise in the united states. do you stay well clear of u.s. treasuries? ,> if you are fully invested you have to have all of your cash in that market. we recommend shortening duration and moving into the less sensitive front end of the curve. ,e do think these front ends the markets of overshot somewhat. not to the point that it justified the extent of the rise in yields. >> i want to talk about the 10- year anyway. when do you start to get concerned about rates in the u.s.? >> it is more about the speed at which they moved, to be honest. recovery is a good thing.
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you get back to a robust economy growing at a nominal rate of 4-5%, there's every reason to think the treasury yield should be higher. it needs to happen at a steady pace because the u.s. consumer is still challenged, the labor market is improving, but it is not where it needs to be, wages are still benign. if it goes too quickly, that is when the fed may have to slow down the taper or start to talk in a way that brings yields down. john to be back with talk much more about where forward guidance should be going in the u.k. as well. back in a moment. ♪
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with a fixedk income strategist at bank of america merrill lynch. you were talking about short yields. they have seen a steep increase recently. how do you see the fomc addressing that? >> i think they will. we have seen a pretty dramatic
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move in december, almost a doubling of the expectations of how much tightening we will see in the next two years. the data surprise has been in the u.s., not the u.k. the recovery is finding its feet and we do not have any concerns in the near term at all. it is not accelerating. i think it is something that will deter the fomc. is complicated by the fact that unemployment has been falling quite fast and that is why we think there may be a case for them to resolve their guidance and away that tells -- in a way that tells the market what will happen next. more specific. what -- we know exactly what rate each member of the fomc thinks.
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we know when they think the first hike is coming. at has been pushed increasingly further out. in the u.k., all we have at the moment is when employment -- unemployment gets to seven percent, we will have a rethink and let you know. >> the rest of the economy is not playing catch-up in the same. you had. ahead.he same full steam >> we have not seen any official data that improved consumer performance. >> did you see anything from the christmas period? >> it is too early to say. retail has been mixed at best. online shopping has taken a bigger share of things. it takes time for the dust to
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settle at this time of year. we need to see businesses expressing confidence of their convictions. want to investey more and we need to see evidence of that. in the absence of strong demand externality and with ongoing fiscal tightening, the recovery will come under threat. >> how much of a risk if the housing market for monetary policy? >> ultimately, that could be there only option if the housing market gets out of control. they have spelled out effectively in terms of the asset price potential issue that they will use macro provincial measures.
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ultimately, if none of that works -- >> john, we have to leave it there. ♪
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>> a state of emergency has been declared in the state of new jersey. a new survey shows that most people in the uk think that 2014 will be a good year. they said this is the time in the three-year history that they have been optimistic about the market. uk government has released data going back to margaret thatcher's data. she considered
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mobilizing troops again striking coal miners. she was told that the bank of england and treasury were trying to undermine her policy of letting the pound float. >> welcome back. onto the important stuff. today marks the birthday of of " whoan behind "the hobbit was born this day in 1892. fans will raise a glass at 9 p.m. local time to make a toast to the professor. toppedekend, the hobbit the box office for the third weekend in a row. second of three films based the novel and is made over 600 million bucks.
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this grossed 1.8 alien dollars. warner bros. might be joining those fans in raising a glass in celebration to the man today. the lordr sat through of the rings and is certainly one ever be doing it for this. before thefinitely book. >> the man was paid by the word. iscertainly warner bros. being paid by the word. let's move on to hong kong because prices are among the most expensive in the world. they're still out of reach for many. had many people looking skyward for a solution. >> is no no secret that home prices in hong kong are outside the reach of many the people who
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live here. rents out fornt over 1700 u.s. dollars per month on average. that wipes out half the monthly income of the household of three to four people. many resort to living on the rooftops of old buildings. , let's sayitions you get what you pay for. >> when it rains or when a typhoon is here, this leaks into the wooden plank. >> it is the sweltering heat in the summer, the cold and the winter, and sometimes sleeping next to wooden shacks infested with white ants. living here is also illegal in most cases. >> illegal structures are distractions that are not originally built with the building. they are added on at a later
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stage. >> anyone found living in these homes is forced to leave and the building is then demolished. >> if they make us leave because it is any legal structure than we will have to go. we cannot do anything about it. >> it is a matter of time before they set up somewhere else. i'll they they have the people have the views of a penthouse, they are not exactly living the high life. underway ins bangkok. investors are closely monitoring the antigovernment protests as opposition leaders plan to paralyze the city. >> good morning. this threat of a shut down at central bangkok, the opposition protesters are suggesting. we saw five percent drop. of thekets paring some earlier decline down by about half of one percent. it is a worse start to a year
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since 1988. 11 currency also extending days of declines. the longest losing streak on record. this as opposition groups try to bring down the government. they say january 13, they will shut down 20 major intersections in bangkok and they will surround government ministries, even the home of ministers in an the ministerple ahead of the elections. they protesters say that want an unelected council to take over. the real concern is that we could see clashes in the street similar to what we saw several years ago when this so-called red and yellow shirt protesters took to the streets. 90 people died in bangkok, hundreds more were injured. those protesters say they will be out in force.
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this is a situation we are watching very closely and the markets are on edge as this continues. out your crystal ball, what happens next? a basely from perspective, january 13, that is when they says they will take over central bangkok. the rival protesters pledging to take to the streets as well. the military says that they will not stage a coup and they will not honor an emergency decree if the government orders one. the military was a widely faulted during the last protest for the death of civilians. this is extremely complex. a huge tourism market is the winter season gets underway.
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>> you can see that these have fallen as well. >> this is down across the border. chinese manufacturing yesterday, we have chinese services data. we will keep it on the china scene. apple's recent deal with china mobile means the iphone will be available in the world's biggest market. some analysts say there are more than 100,000 pre-orders. here is a close look at the market.
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through have to weigh the football season. we will get the latest stats on which team has the chance of coming out on top. stay with us.
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for today's company news. blackberry is parting ways with alicia keys. she failed to rekindle demand for the smartphone. she came on board as global creative director just as newkberry was unveiling its system. facebook is being sued as allegations that in intercepted uses private messages and share the data for profit with advertisers and marketers. when uses right messages,
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facebook scanned it, followed the link and searched it for information. the suit says this violates privacy and unfair competition laws. ryanair boosted passenger numbers by 2% which brings the suit to 84.1 million passengers. they filled 83% of available seats on average over the past 12 months. easyjet and aer lingus will release their data next week. welcome back. we have a little bit of sport. >> let's turn to football. our sports team broke out their season predictor for a half a term report. the stats have shifted since the start of the season. david is here with me. let's start looking back at history. going toou think was
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come out on top? >> we should talk about our predictors and how it works. this is what we update week on week. it runs through an algorithm millions and millions of times to the program. this was our preseason reduction and this is the chance of winning the barclays premier league. chelsea, we have 35.1%. %.nchester united, 25.5 arsenal down 7.5%. you will notice that manchester united is very high. liverpool is nowhere near that list. we have chelsea by seven percent over manchester. >> we can take a look at our second graphic.
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we have manchester city after the excellent season so far. 43.4%. arsenal rocketed up. liverpool is the one in the list. look at this. they have dropped from 24.5%. why we only have arsenal. this is about fixtures that have been played, fixtures that are yet to play. it takes potential injuries into account. these are strong statistics. there is no emotion, there is not even any cynical football knowledge. this is about an outer rhythm. we have manchester city as the strong favorite. >> let's talk about the italian league.
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>> a huge game. this is your prediction. there is more than halve over performed under their new coach. no one is very interesting. chance and we'll see in a moment. 2.5% in fifth to place. one of the two teams in the top five leaves to the beaten. it is only roma and buyer in munich. bayern munich, roma is down. for myare asking me
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instinct rather than just the algorithm, i would give roma i better chance than that. look at milan, nowhere to be seen. they have been so very very poor that they are not even on the list. they have zero percent and our own rhythm of winning. they are last. the on this side, there is nothing. they have had it. >> we will have to ring you back further into the season to see how you're doing. but there normally pretty good. you and dave destroyed my team. to al change the subject company known for creating for all kinds of
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industry. you can become your own interior designer. >> we are presenting a new online service. you have the possibility to design your house, generic that you can customize to perfectly fit what you already have or a brand of furniture if you're planning to buy new furniture. right now you have an avatar somehelps you to get space in the room and walk around the different rooms. >> newly released documents in the national archives reveal
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margaret thatcher's handling of the miners strike the 1980's.
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>> a lot happened last year. pope benedict the 16th nelson mandela died,
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and a new monarch was born. >> from soccer to the classroom, robots gained ground in 2013. india created a dancing robot. critically ill children were in the classroom. austrian research is designed to their robot to help the elderly. iran hosted the soccer andetition while french japanese scientists created a robot that you can control with your mind. another but the finishing touches on the first talking said to space. motion centers put robot in the boxing ring. the secretary was shown off in tokyo and israel continued its development of military robot. 2014 promises to be just as mind blowing. if they have their say, it will be fluffy robots helping people
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with memory loss. >> move it on a little bit, about an hour away from the start of most european trading. futures are pointing lower. losses to the start of the new year. not exactly inspiring if you're coming to work. new year's resolution. >> do you want one? >> i'm not good at making them either but more people are. failures are forgotten. , apparently, according to a poll, 30 people have made new year's resolutions of far this year. for those who are slightly younger, it is 40%. of course, guess what is the top? >> exercise. >> then, is losing weight overall. third, saving money.
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only one in eight want to cut down drinking. all of that antigovernment antidrinking rhetoric is not rubbing off in the uk. 6% of people vowed to spend less time on social networking. maybe they have too much of their head in instagram, twitter. they are trying to rein back on that. them.ate every january. they come to the gym and they crowd it out and they disappear at it is really a really annoying. i want them to give up fast. >> brutal. upi hope most people give after we can clear out of the gym a little bit. >> a very dark story. basically about al qaeda moving back --
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they have a military unit moving into the cities of falluja and hammadi. we don't talk about iraq and the middle east very often but this is an extra ordinary development. duringn the rocket invasion in 2003 and often on to 2007. during the iraq invasion in 2003. ,o see al qaeda get a foothold it is really depressing and it is worrisome. it speaks just to the problems of iraq and an issue that all of us should be concerned about at the greater problems that are imitating out of syria and the sectarian tensions that we are seeing with the mostly shia led government in iraq and the sunnis now in the west. quite bad.lly really >> who will take you back to 1984 because overnight the uk
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archives were opened. i pity the guys that have to come through all of this. margaretine is that thatcher was days away from calling out troops during the miners strike. almost called a state of emergency. every year they go back and they in turn the archives that were once closed and you can find out what was going on. this was fascinating to find out what was going on with stature at the time and how close she was to calling the troops troops and. it turns out, but he close. >> the of antagonism that is out there. when margaret thatcher do dies, it shows you how much passion people still feel. 30 years, and still very close to people's heart. >> i came here just seven years ago but you can clearly see her mark as opposed to the mark of prime minister said following her.
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even out in the street. >> politics always divisive, even back in 1994. >> 30 years. i wonder what 1985 will bring. fascinating pieces just to look ick in history overall and thought that we did get a feeling that actually most of the views are more positive. >> it was kind of a muted funeral. there were not hundreds of thousands people there. it was pretty solemn, very respectful. it was not much more than that, was it? >> they were a lot more excited about the royal baby. >> that is the truth. will be looking at a strategy of no sales for christmas. they have cut their prices. fighting that whether
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they get fourth quarter's sales figures they promised. they increased their often in the fourth quarter. can they hold onto those positive figures? .
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>> the following is a paid program. the opinions and views expressed do not reflect those of bloomberg l.p., its affiliates r its employees. >> the following is a paid presentation for focus t25, brought to you by beach ody. >> it's about time. >> the number one reason people have for not working out is, they do not have time. >> i have four kids. i work 70 hours a week. >> i do not want to work out for an hour. are you kidding me? i don't have the time. >> no time to work out? no problem.

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