tv Political Capital With Al Hunt Bloomberg January 5, 2014 1:30pm-2:01pm EST
>> this week on "political capital" white house adviser david plouffe previews 2014. and margaret carlson debates the upcoming year. we begin the program with former senator john sununu and david plouffe. at the end of the year, barack obama and congress were at low points. we begin with health care. will it be more popular than it is now?
>> it will be a little more popular. more people will be signed up. that reality will change the public's opinion. i think -- hopefully washington will not self-destruct. that will be a big change if people do not have that hanging over the heads even though we have the debt ceiling looming. washington will be quieter. i think it will take a long time for the reality of health care to settle in. hopefully the economy continues to strengthen. >> how do you see health care in six months? will republicans stop trying to kill it? >> it is hard to imagine it getting worse. too many people lost coverage. too many people with their prices increasing. it is chaos. uncertainty about whether someone is paying for their premium. uncertainty about whether a hospital needs an approval and where they get it from.
there are problems that continue with the state exchanges. they are simply going to be too many opportunities politically for republicans to criticize the enormous damage that has been done. it is not a question of obamacare not making the system better, but it has done real damage. >> will republicans offer an alternative? >> they have lots of alternatives. they can make it easier across state lines and make it easier to get access to those policies. there are lots of alternatives and improvements to the system we used to have that republicans have written. unfortunately, obamacare with its state-controlled and centralize control of what has to be in a policy has really undermined flexibility, competition.
>> i think republicans, this is a trap for them in a way. they paid a price for it in 2012 here and even in the fall, the vast majority of the american people say to not get rid of it. implement it and fix it. that is where they are. this is the trap. they are hearing health care. it is an obsession. they want the congress to focus on jobs and the economy. >> that is really wishful thinking. 65% of the electorate does not support the program. for the vast majority of people, prices have gone up and not down. my policy increased in price as a result of the legislation. those between 55 and 65, prices have gone up.
>> we have debated health care. let me turn to immigration. the senate passed an immigration bill. will the house pass it with vast bipartisanship? or will they kill it? >> i think they will pass something. they will pass more than one piece of legislation. something that deals with security and agriculture immigration and of course, some sort of pathway for those that are illegal today to become legal. as citizens? maybe, maybe not. that will be one of the bills passed by the house. >> will that be sufficient? >> you can have a second-class citizen situation. the signs are encouraging. these people are our neighbors. they work in our economy.
they play an important role in our community. the congressional budget office has to pass immigration. there's is a huge economic argument to do this. the political argument is whether this is something they have to do? the notion in 2016 when you'll have presidential candidates running around, it will be much more difficult. the next few months are the opportunity to do it. it house wants to do this in a series of bills that is easier for them, fine. but we need to have comprehensive immigration reform. >> let me turn to foreign policy. i will begin with david. >> i agree with all that. >> by gosh. news -- iran. will there be a deal on their nuclear ambitions? can they get a final deal? >> i hope so. there is a window there. this is a fragile situation.
most of the parties involved globally with the iranian leader, we have to be careful. everyone seems to want to avoid the worst. we do not want it to end up to be a catastrophic war. i think the window is there. you know how these things go out. there will be a setback and the look like all hope is gone, but the conditions are there for a deal. that would be a good thing. the american people look at things like syria and iran. they are weary of war. they see it as a danger to the economy. the american people are rooting strongly for john kerry and them to -- >> we all like a good deal, but what do you think about the process for a realistic deal? >> any deal that is strong enough to persuade the concerns of democratic and republican members of congress is unlikely
to receive full compliance from iran. they might sign it, but six months from now, we will find that they are not fully in compliance. as a result, congress will try to act to add in new sanctions are take other actions against them. any deal that they would be happy to comply with is probably going to be too weak to persuade critics. it really is a rock and a hard place. it ensures that iran does not get access to enriched uranium, it will be difficult. >> let me ask you to put your political hat on. when we wake up november 5, what is the composition of congress going to look like? >> 51-49 republican senate. almost identical margin to what you have. this is the second term of off year election for the president. the president is in power.
his party tends to fare poorly in these elections. you have got the headwinds of obamacare. i agree that republicans had to put together a broader message on economics and on the budget and some of the long-term challenges the country faces. i think they can do that in an off year. as a result, they would a cup seats. >> i guess you slightly disagree? >> i do. a lot will happen between now and then. my sense is the hold on to the senate. we have had a number of close races in the senate. in the house, there will be a lot of close races. either party right now is held in high regard. i do not think the republican party has an advantage. they still have time to do that, but not a lot of time. my sense is in the house, democrats have an opportunity to
gain seats. my sense is that they hold on. the nightmare scenario is it comes down to louisiana. >> oh my gosh. >> two of the smartest minds in american politics agree a little bit. if it comes down to louisiana, does mary landrieu -- >> oh boy. that is 11 months ahead of time. thank you. when we return, the economic outlook for 2014. bloomberg reporters are next. ♪
>> welcome back. let's focus on 2014. the economy, we have an abundance of riches. as an rich miller and richard rubin. let's begin with the miller version. rich, you keep talking about something called escape velocity. no idea what it means. mean something good? >> it is like that movie "groundhog day." he kept waking up opening it would be a different day, but it was the same day over and over. that is what is happening with the economy. but this year, it may be groundhog day will be over.
by velocity, some say we will reach a level where we will not need the rocket propulsion from the fed anymore. we can grow on our own. >> the market is soaring. wall street is back. and yet joe or jenny sixpack are still struggling. wages are stagnant. can we do anything about this? >> the democrats would have you think that we can do something about this. rich might talk about this. they will make it a key part of their platform. income inequality. they will hit on minimum wage and the expiration of the unemployment benefits. you have got powerful forces that are aggravating income inequality. computers and robots taking over. manufacturing be increasingly automated. all of those forces are pushing
in the other area. >> the other rich mentioned unemployment compensation. there is a big push this month to try to extend it. will it happen? >> boy, is sure seems unlikely. we are in that dynamic in this congress for several years. we have got democrats driving in one direction to get those benefits and the republican-led house that does not want to give benefits. the economy is getting better. >> you are saying it will happen? >> it is much more of a groundhog day situation. this congress does what they have to do. maybe a little bit more. betting on congress to act is pretty tough. >> to extend the debt ceiling in february, we can avoid another government shut down over the
budget because of the murray- ryan deal. will we have another big shootout over the debt ceiling? >> a little shootout this month over a spending bill. there will be some debate on obamacare and then we will turn to the debt ceiling. you know, republicans are making noises. ryan was making some noises before the end of the year that there would be some conditions. so, we will be back in the same replay. the question is whether republicans would be willing to push to the brink to threaten default. >> are whether obama would capitulate. >> right. how big of a habitually do you get? >> rich, for the first time in a few weeks, we will be seeing the
chairwoman of the fed reserve. never been a woman chairwoman before. what is janet yellen stepping into? >> she is stepping into a committee that is taking one tough decision in which they have decided this past month to moderate purchases of bonds in this qe. they have set a schedule that they will ratchet down. one of the hardest decisions -- ben bernanke has been taken off the table. >> the economy is getting better. north carolina, it looks like the unappointed rate is down. >> right. that is a problem. the fed says one of the signs they are looking at is the unemployment rate. the trouble is as you say, if the unemployment rate is falling because people are discouraged
or they are dropping out, -- >> let me ask you about tax reform. a lot of talk about it over the last year. >> it is looking less and less likely. what are the main drivers is that you will be heading to china. we will look at all of the expired tax provisions. one man is interested in extending things that will last until december 31. that will be the first bit of action. you might see long-term plans coming out of the house. it is hard to see a path a tax reform law. >> and taking over the senate finance committee -- >> for people interested in policy, he is a very interesting guy. he dives deep into tax policy and medicare policy and health
>> welcome back. we will get to margaret carlson in a moment. but first, you phil mattingly talks about an issue that will not go away. the nsa mess. he had a lot of reading to do in hawaii. the 300 page report from his nsa advisory committee. what will you do? >> changes are coming. if it were not for edward snowden, this conversation would not be adding. we know that the president took the form with them hawaii. he has pled she will make a speech regarding the intelligence obstruction in the u.s. sometime next week he is expected to make changes. >> both sides are great critics. >> they align together on this. they have to make changes.
they continue to protect their country interview, but also i just upgrade that is going on in congress. if obama does not act, capitol hill will. he needs to do something before they try to -- >> what is the issue? >> it is a collection of telephone records, and millions of them. they feel like it is a key component of what they do. on capitol hill, you have got democrats who have major problems with that program. they want to move legislation to change that. the obama administration is in a tough position. >> there are legal challenges. there have been conflicting court decisions. this will end up in the supreme court, wouldn't it? >> it is definitely heading in that direction. there is a judge in d.c. that said the collection program is unconstitutional. another judge in new york says it is constitutional. the only end for this is in the
supreme court. >> and edward snowden? >> if you talk to officials, he could be heading to jail. you would think they would keep him in russia. there is a growing momentum. no one i talked to in the administration thinks that is an idea they want to pursue. >> this is a crystal ball looking ahead. what would the republicans be able to impose? >> they will show boat and try some sequester like -- after the government shut down, they will not be able to go to the endgame. >> the sequester was a historic mistake by democrats, when they will not replicate. republicans have shown they will lose to any big showdown and will not be able to get much out of it.
>> i agree with both of you on that. this is your back. >> oh please. >> who will win the super bowl? >> i always have to pick a certain team. it has to be the northeast. >> my dad lives in boston. i'm a patriots fan. my prediction is that colorado will not take it because of that legalized marijuana. [laughter] >> i will pick the 49ers. i do not know why. i should talk to david. best picture -- which one will win the oscars? >> it will be hard to pass up "12 years a slave." it'll be hard to say no to.
>> that is my oscar pick. it is a great, great movie. long overdue. heartrending. >> i loved "american hustle." i agree with both of you. "12 years a slave." how many enrollees in obamacare in april? 7 million? what will be achieved by april 1? >> that would be my estimate. >> i think she is close. i hope that more of those are the young and the healthy to make the system work. let's get the free riders onto insurance. >> what will the partisan breakdown look like after the november election? what, if any republicans, will lose their seats?
>> i think one will lose to the perfect candidate. a woman i know is a good candidate. 52-48. does that sound about right? >> that sounds about right. >> 51-49. i think democrats are very vulnerable. i do not think obamacare is a big selling point. >> we will be back to check in with both of you. thank you for joining us. see you next week. >> "political capital" is a production of bloomberg television. ♪
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