tv On the Move Bloomberg January 29, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EST
one. >> it is going to be central bank day. we were looking at turkey. this is a huge impact on stocks across the world. >> the fed later on has a couple of issues to deal with. the federal reserve has a domestic mandate which is about employment or unemployment i should say and growth. they could possibly take into consideration what is happening in turkey or what might happen in south africa -- i suppose it would be delusional. we have a new cast of characters on the federal reserve committee. >> corporate news, we have a little bit of fashion not doing so great. >> watch for that stock potentially to fall on the open. a profit warning coming from mulberry. we know their leather bag so well. we know how difficult it was on the u.k. high street in the run-up to christmas. they say that is going to severely impact their profitability. they are going to see significant miss in terms of profits. retail sales were 3% below where
they stood about pre-months in the run-up to christmas up until january 25. mulberry having a tough time in the u.k. and also in korea. >> we are just getting some breaking news out of spain. 600 openthe stoxx higher gaining 0.5%. in terms of spain. we have retail sales falling from 1%. hat i a little bit of wj think we were expecting, a fall. we will keep an eye on spain and that index. you can see the ibex opening 1% higher. you don't want to miss this coming up interview later in the program. we are watching deutsche bank. hans nichols is at the bank's news conference this morning and the co-ceo speaks to bloomberg in his first interview of the day. we will bring that conversation later this morning. we also have to focus on income inequality. this is the big push that
president obama is speaking about. >> it is more about the underemployment, people who work part-time and what a full-time job. earnings typically in developed markets have been low. the kind of quality of the labor data has become really important. for the fed today, two issues, .m. isn't one. the fed does surprise us sometimes. >> that is what keeps us on our toes and in our jobs. with the federal reserve have to play catch-up? will they start cutting stimulus more than $10 million? at the moment it would seem they are off base if they don't cut more. >> i had a conversation yesterday and they are saying the fed could throw a variance in here. equity markets are lower and
some others aren't that bothered. you have had a rise in emerging markets. you have had distorted data coming through. they could maybe just go for five. why sit back and just presume that the federal reserve will absolutely go verbatim $10 billion each sitting of the next six sittings of the fomc? >> you are right. the fed is a big one to watch. we are watching mulberry. there is also novartis disappointing. and shell selling off their stakes. >> we will have a look at those equities. that is critically important to the deflation story. add that onto the fact that there is a gentleman called mark , he will be speaking. we will be listening. equity markets, i thought we would kickoff with a reflection of what is going on with some of the currencies. this is the indian rupee.
the turks went quite aggressively in terms of ratcheting their interest rates last night. john ferro was just telling you that south africans are going to anemic 0.25%. you can see the momentum coming through in those emerging markets. let's have look at the map of equities. there are spanish retail sales doing better than the market had estimated. this is equity markets at their best. they get a little shot in the arm. what you have going on with the indian central bank, the turkish central bank, we are going to look after ourselves. do what you want to do over there in the fed but you are slaughtering our currencies. we're going to take action. they may not have the reserves to actually hold out but they are going to take action. the betting is that the south africans will now -- equities are getting a buzz. let's check in in the u.k. and see what is driving.
minors up by 5%. that ties in with the whole american story. fran, you mentioned a couple of companies. let's give you an indication of where some of them are. under performing at the opening in the ftse. that is a bigger structural story at play at royal dutch. bayer gets a little good news in terms of one of their heart is saideave -- aleve to be some of their competitors in relieving stroke and heart. novartis, their numbers missed. emerging market currencies shock. they are ready for acquisitions. $5 billion of bolt on acquisitions at novartis. shell now down as the markets rise. >> thank you so much.
as we have been saying, investors are waiting for the policy statement from the fed. is it the first 2014 and the last for chairman bernanke. joining us to talk about his investment strategy is jerry fowler. thank you so much for coming on the program. as always, what are you expecting from the fed today? >> our expectation is a high hurdle for changing policy. we'll have more taper. we think they need a substantial change in the outlook for them to stop tapering. our expectation is they continue tapering all year and finished towards the end of the year. >> a significant announcement today? >> a continuation of their policies. wasr previous announcement more tapering. that they would continue tapering essentially, so long as the data continues to support their outlook for growth. >> which at the moment it seems too. are the markets ready? have they priced in a gradual tapering? >> to some extent, they have.
i think there are other issues in place with emerging markets obviously. you have seen yields come down a little further. again, to some extent that helps the fed. they don't want yields to back off. they would have a bigger problem. for the moment, that supports them i think. >> are youw or are they turned e they kind of equal? >> what the fed is doing is focused on domestic policy. we don't think they are taking into a future consideration what is happening in emerging markets yet. we are seeing some big currency moves but not a great deal of impact on local economics. at the moment there is not a great deal of obvious transmission mechanisms for week emerging markets by the currencies or economics to the u.s. markets. >> thank you so much. we will come back to the emerging markets in a couple of minutes. here is a look at what else is coming up on "on the move." it is ben bernanke's last stand.
here is a stock that is on the move. mulberry, down some 22%. it is falling to a three-year low after it said pretax profits for the full year are going to be substantially below current market estimates. this is the kind of move our clays says and eight sales are disappointing. also, korea sales -- wholesale sales are much weaker than expected. that is one of the stocks we are watching out for today, down 22%. deutsche bank surprised investors last week with an unexpected loss in an unexpectedly early report. today executives are making in frankfurt to discuss results as well as new initiatives. hans nichols joins us now from frankfurt. what is going on? you will be speaking to the co-ceo on bloomberg. >> we will have that interew as soon as we possibly can. what we have here is the official release of the fourth quarter numbers. they prerelease on sunday night davos some of the figures
of the richest that bad. $1.5 billion. estimates were for $600 million in trading revenues. you look at where some of their losses are. down 60% on revenues quarter on quarter. in fixed income, down some 30%. this is a bank that is struggling, trying to talk about some of the legal challenges they have had. they are also going to be throwing it forward and not just to 2014. they may be trying to put the emphasis on 2015 for when they can return to come back to strength and prosperity. there is going to be a different regulatory framework in place then. that is one of the issues we are going to press on. what do these new capital standards mean? what will it mean for barclays. today we are going to drill down on the deutsche bank question. days ago.bers out 10 what are we going to learn
today? i am very excited about your interview. get conversation. we -- condensate -- compensation. and net income. we will get a complete picture of their fourth quarter. we will have a sense for what compensation is for the entire year and we are going to turn the focus towards 2014 and 2015. what their strategy is for the future. we are sitting down with the co-ceo anshu jain, that is an opportunity to get some of those questions. he for that they have a big press conference. it is really game day for deutsche bank. they're going to have some challenging questions to answer. >> i am looking forward to it. thank you so much. don't miss hans's interview with anshu jain later on this morning. he is speaking to us first right here on bloomberg. my next guest sees european equities outperforming this year. let's welcome jerry fowler, head of equity at bnp.
thank you very much first sticking around. he have this great story on bloomberg.com saying the biggest banks will meet the basel rules five years at a time. for deutsche bank and other banks it is going to be a painful couple of years. >> it already has been painful. that is one of the key issues we have got. the history burst of the cost of equity for banks. for five years, european banking has been an unsustainable industry. the returns have been lower than the cost of doing business. markets are forward-looking. part of the recently etched -- have had a strong rally is that sometime in the next two years we expect that the return on equity for these banks is going to cross back above the cost of equity. that is quite a pivotal moment. it is going to come from the end of regulatory adaptation. we have had a lot of fines coming through. the last of those is being
implemented this year. the most important thing a lot of investors are missing is that the aqr process is most risky for the small peripheral banks. for the big banks it is likely to encourage foreign investors to have greater faith. >> when we talk about big european banks, do you put the french banks in the same category as german banks and u.k. banks? u.k. banks seem to have taken more pain earlier, two or three years ago. >> we are mostly talking about the eurozone banks. french and german banks together separate from the u.k. and swiss banks. it is mostly about capitalization, very large banks adapting more quickly. reason whyt of the in doing this trade we think call options for sx exposure is an appropriate way of doing it. you can also fund that on credit because the credit indices are much more sensitive to smaller banks, some of the insurance
companies and other assets that were less confident. >> thank you so much for that. we talked a little bit about emerging markets. we will get back to that in a couple of minutes. the turkish lira is gaining against the dollar. the move comes as the turkish central bank boosted ratesetting meeting overnight. here with more is jonathan ferro. >> that is right. the central bank moved real hard. we can officially call that crisis monetary policy. this is much stronger than many people anticipated. after you saw record lows on the turkish lira, you're seeing the biggest pop in the currency against the dollar and the euro in over five years. it has not stopped. the question now is will the latest action to just that? has the central bank regain any credibility with this move? >> quite a few people and analyst saying they have done just that. there is a real political undercurrent to monetary policy
in that country. the prime minister or to gun has been very -- erdogan has been very vocal. whether the government approved this move or not, he is well aware that an economic crisis can topple political careers. his own career in politics is built on the foundations of the political crisis. the collapse of the imf program in 2001 and the devaluation in the lira that followed. is not stopping the run for the lira, the rate rise is something you have to look at. it may choke off growth. of course turkey has a brand-new problem. it follows india and brazil in pushing rates higher. a immediate concerns but if the fed moves to reduce stimulus, it could have -- >> thank you very much. jerry, let's focus on the emerging markets. we mentioned it earlier on. my question is, how surprised were you?
it seems that every three days we are focusing on different parts of the world. is anything christ in or will the markets be in shock? >> turkey was an enormous move. for emerging markets in general, our view was always that emerging markets would underperform developed markets as they did last year and the year before. mostly that was driven by the profitability of equities being continually eroded by cost inflation. the growth acceleration of these economies is not sufficient to overcome the cost inflation. profitability goes down, earnings growth is weak or negative. equities perform poorly. now that the inflation pressures are being tackled aggressively likely countries, it is to cause a significant weakening in growth for sure. of looking at the 1980 scenario with inflation in the u.s..
it hurts the economy but you kill the inflation demon. you're starting from low equity and valuations. coming out of a recession and into better growth. we should see an extremely good environment again. that is not the case just yet. we are still in a weak economic environment and many markets. >> i want to get your take on some of the corporate stories. we went through the big european banks. is there any money to be made in tech? yahoo! disappointed. caroline hyde will go through the story in a second. do you like tech? is it something investors should be looking at? theech is enormous cash-rich. it is quite hard to value the bunnies when a quarter of their balance sheet is cash. it is also hard to work out what the volatility should be of those assets. how well truncated is it? having said that, some parts of
the tech market are trading on 10 times earnings and have consistent profits. other parts of the tech market are on 20 to 25 times earnings like google. of thegh valuation and spectrum is similar to other spectrums which we would call the quality theme. you have high-quality tech, high quality consumer discretionary. in some cases, those are well over twice the market average. as a group, that is the same bubble premium that japan had when it was a bubble in the 80's and china had with it was a double five years ago and when tech was a bubble in the late 90's. all of these premiums eventually subside. not necessarily with valuations coming down. it is just that if you are invested in those high-quality companies and sectors, we wouldn't expect outperformance this year. that is going to come from cheaper more cyclically oriented developed market companies. >> maybe not a bubble but watch out. thank you so much, jerry fowler.
move. novartis profits missed analyst estimates for the fourth quarter. the european drugmaker was hurt by emerging-market currencies and strong swiss francs. novartis is seeking to replace its best-selling drugs which are starting to lose patent protection. nintendo's third-quarter income dropped 77% as christmas shoppers shunned its console. the company said it would buy back shares for as much as ¥125 billion. nintendo shocked the market when it forecast a surprise annual loss and said it is considering a new business model. lenovo is said to be ready to pay an unusually large fee to ibm as it fails to acquire the low-end server unit. lenovo will pay a so-called reverse breakup fee, about 8% of the $2.3 billion price for the unit. normally deals like this are about pre-.5%. the ibm unit will be part of lenovo's biggest purchase.
another company we are watching is yahoo!. they released earnings last night. here with more on the struggle to attract advertising dollars is caroline hyde. we are stop -- still not seeing in growth area >> 18 months the job and she has grown the ms abuses on the website by 20% as she came to the helm but not so in terms of advertisers. advertisers are going to her old employer, they are advertising on google and facebook. they are falling behind in terms of the market. u.s. digital advertising business, the growth is expected to be in about the realm of 12% next year. yahoo! is only going to see a four percent growth. they are lagging in the market. is what marissa mayer said yesterday, it will take years for a desirable level of growth to show through. yahoo! is innovating.
if you're an iphone user, go to your weather application. in the left hand bottom corner, you will see a little yahoo! sign. he developed the weather app for the iphone. i am told by investors that when you go to yahoo!, they will hold up that weather app as a beacon of their innovation. i am not sure how innovative a weather application is but they are trying to push that. they are pushing new products, new consumer technology products. the new yahoo! food channel they have developed. they have been inquisitive. 19 companies adding in terms of mobile applications. they also bought the blogging lr for $1.1 billion. that is about the size of the entire revenue stream for the first quarter. that is behind forecast. she is not managing to drive up sales as she is driving up users. she is really trying to take control.
>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua at bloomberg european headquarters in london. we are 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up. this is a picture for the overall markets. gains across the board. rick whitty's -- equities rising for a second day. watching the fed as well. fed officials have been analyzing u.s. economic data to determine the timing and pace of reductions in asset purchases. we will have those results later on. we are watching two stocks,
mulberry down some 20%. down 23% as we speak. their shares are lunging as the luxury goods maker sees a profit setback. it is going to be a difficult year. this is a picture for looks to -- luxottica, gaining some 4.9%. it is in line with growth. let's have a look with the currencies. currencies play into what is happening in turkey. francn declining, swiss declining. that reduces demand for haven assets and you can see dollar/won. these are the bloomberg top headlines. emerging-market currencies are rising led by the lira's biggest jump since 2008. that is after turkey more than doubled interest rates in an attempt to stem outflows.
the decision followed an unexpected rate increase from the central bank yesterday. nationwide protests continue in ukraine after the departure of the nation's capital year. opposition leaders -- premier opposition leaders are trying to replace john echo which. -- yanukovych. president obama urged congress to allow an expedited vote on trade agreements in his annual state of the union address. the u.s. is trying to complete deals with the european union and pacific nations. >> we need to work together on tools like bipartisan trade promotion authority to protect our workers, our environment and open new markets to new goods stamped "made in usa." the president went on to say that china and europe aren't standing on the sidelines and neither should the u.s. we are going to stay in the u.s. because we are just hours away from the fed's first ellis a
division of 2014 and it is the last meeting to be chaired by ben bernanke. -- we have now manus cranny for more on the changing complexion of the fed. we have more hawks. >> we have. voters who get to throw their ticket in the ring. it is going to be interesting to see what the statement says. how that breaks down in reference to growth, markets, taper. let's look at the new hawks. not all hawkish. i thought we would focus on these four. and these others. in 2011.dissented just to put it in context, richard fisher is not that bothered about equity markets. i want to show you these
emerging markets and the s&p. is the fed bothered? is it bothered by what goes on in markets? that is the question we have to ask ourselves. richard fisher wouldn't flinch. charlie says look through december data. kocherlakoto a little bit less hawkish. is there any way these guys and gals did not look at what the turks are doing, did not look at what the indians are doing and did not look at what could potentially come from the south africans? the whole debate for 2014 changes because of the actions of the emerging central banks over the last 24 hours. >> we have been through the complexion of the voters a little bit. what do the markets make of this -- what do the markets make of this? marketd the fed buy
turbulence? equity markets are coming back. maybe just go $5 billion. have a look at the data. the data is key and absolute. nevermind -- have a look at the data. this is what sits in front of the newly roundtable fomc, the data. jobless claims are declining. trade deficit, manufacturing is on the up. at a five-month high yesterday. that big number of capital expenditure dropped. it is going to be down to the perception of whether growth can be sustained. it is in -- isn't it time to send a message? this balance sheet is even to big for the fomc voters to eat. >> thank you. manus cranny with the latest on what we can expect from the fed. in light of today's policy decisions, let's focus on recent movement in the currency market.
josing us from barclays is e. thank you so much for joining us. how much are you looking at the fed for an indication of what currency markets are going to do? how much are you looking at emerging markets? turkey is center stage. >> that is correct. is how they are not related to the dollar. fedmarkets have seen the throw in the towel for a little while. unemployment is dropping faster than we believe a few months ago. the main driver for the dollar going forward is whether you do have inflation picking up or not. core inflation continues to recover. but at a very gradual and moderate pace.
if this continues, the market may believe that in fact all tweendea and relationship inflation and the labor market is not strong will go away. then the market will begin to pay rates in the u.s.. this would be the beginning of the dollar rising. for now they are going to talk about labor markets. this also will fit for the dollar a little bit. >> what would you be buying into right now? if we are looking at emerging-market currencies, there is one that stands out as a good deal right now? seene price model you have pretty much erased all the stress among the turkish lira. we have our favorites. turkey and south africa. south africa has a big decision
tonight. i am not expect in south africa to move. the dollar.e like we are still short in euro positions. theike the dollar against yen. >> anything you would be selling off right now? >> we are selling euros, yen, the swiss. we are neutral relative to the dollar on the pound at the moment. those are the majors. swiss. >> what is your take on the euro? what is the ecb going to do over the next five or six months? is there a real danger that this will remain a very strong currency and force the ecb's hands to act? believe in thedo
risk. we believe that central bank may use what is left of their own core rate. believe part of the reason why the euro is strong relative to what people expected a few months ago, even the state of the economy here versus the u.s. , is in part related to fairly tight monetary policy. part of that we think is coming from the daily version -- deleveraging coming from the banks. that pushes the euro up. we think the central bank may need to erase that. you may see further downside surprises going forward. thiswas listening to panel. we have the finance minister, mario draghi, mark carney.
draghi was at pains to not really talk about qe says all the options are open. is 20 for the year ready ecb will have to try qe? >> the ecb is reluctant to go into bond purchases. they could do corporate bond purchases. they have other options they seem to prefer. they know that growth is declining in many countries in europe. theywould like to boost -- would like to boost growth going forward. i think they would be inclined to do something. jose wynne, thank you so much. coming up on the program, the resignation of ukraine's premier. we will have the latest on the unrest, next. ♪
to show for their big spending. major players began issuing profit warnings this month. let's bring in bloomberg energy reporter, brian swinton. we have been talking about this on and off for the last you weeks. they are facing their issues. cost cuts, costs are going up and they need to deal with it. >> there is one possible solution, that is certainly shells strategy. they're selling a stake in an offshore field in brazil. they have a $15 million target for asset sales. they also bet against their capital investment so you have a net investment figure and a target for that as well. they're trying to bring it down now. >> there is still news they are looking at settling a stake in one of the crude oil lines. what is their strategy? they sell a percentage but they retain control? >> it depends on the project. the point is they can sell parts and get money for it if it is not central to their strategy. i am sure they will be looking
all across their portfolio. they sold a bit in the wheatstone project and we expect a lot more asset sales from shell coming up. >> will that win back investors? do they need to do more? >> i think what investors really want to see as they can control the cost. it was a shock that the issue this profit warning two years ago -- two weeks ago because it only been two months since the previous results. what could change in between there? we got a new ceo. it will be up to him to convince people. >> now four weeks in the job. who else is trying to sell off stakes? >> i think it will be a big theme. bp announced an additional $10 billion asset sale program. we haven't heard much about what they are selling. this is on the back of huge selloffs following the 2010 gulf of mexico spill. get rid of asto
little as possible and focus on things that can really bring them profits in the future. >> brian, thank you so much. we will continue to watch this story. , our energy reporter. "the pulse" is coming up in about 15 minutes. i am joined by guy johnson. >> we have a packed show. this is what we have got. state of the union last night, inequality a big theme running through that. the minimum wage looks like it is going to be raised. what impact is that going to have in the inequality story in the united dates? we are going to focus on that. lyons. gerard onset to talk about any quality on both sides of the atlantic. it is a big story over here as well. the labour party pushing for the reintroduction of taxes on upper income brackets. is that the right move? focus onbe better to
cutting some of the more aggressive taxes out there? whichlook at v.a.t. penalizes poor people more. the rich are the only people that can really pay, seems to be the line coming out of the professor. how are they going to pay is the big question. we have a great interview coming up later on. let me make sure that is in your diary for later. that is going to be for our european audience. we are talking about deutsche numbers with our guest. sergio marchionne a little later on is telling us. what he will is coffee at chrysler. he says both company names -- -chrysler. he says both company names will remain in the name. we will wait and see. >> the italians are usually
upset but it is a great story. let's see whether he come up with it himself or paid millions of dollars to get consulting on it. should be a great show. i am looking forward to it. here in the meantime are some companies on the move. yahoo! shares fell in extended trading after the company forecast first-quarter sales that missed estimates. chief executive marissa mayer is struggling to convert user growth into advertising dollars. waso!'s expansion this year roughly one third the rate of the industry. a 25 year better and of daimler will leave the company after being promoted at mercedes-benz. andreas renschler is stepping down for personal reasons. he oversaw the world's largest truck business for nearly 90 -- nearly nine years. of mulberry are down as much as 22%, the lowest since 2010. this after the company warned
that its full-year pretax profits will be substantially below current estimates. shares of mulberry were down 19% in 2003. ukraine's president continues to fight the same power -- to stay in power. the prime minister's resignation has not satisfied protesters as demonstrators continue. for the latest i am joined by ryan chilcote. what did the protesters what? >> they want complete change, regime change to use a bad term. what is interesting is you have 450 lawmakers in one room. they have returned for an emergency session, perhaps the most important session in their history. cutting their christmas break short even though we are at the end of january. what do they decide? two big things. primevernment says, -- minister says, i am willing to offer my resignation. they rescind the anti-protest law that sparked this recent round of violent protests. what about the protesters on the street?
they like the rescinding of the anti-protest law. they like the offer of resignation. they celebrated in fact. they continue to plan on trying to topple the president. that is the real objective. he is the one with real power. >> you have also been looking at the debt market. what is the story there? >> very similar -- very different. they don't want political turmoil but at the end of the day what they're looking at is the country's ability to pay its debt. the backstop f ukraine has been russia. russia offered $15 billion in the middle of december. that is what investors took heart to. if the opposition does get our power, will russia stilstick behind the pledge? we got the answer from president putin yesterday. he said yes. that is interesting. we saw the yield on the 10 year bond dropped the most since the middle of december when putin said for the first time that
they will offer the moy. that is after he climbed over those 10 days of violence by almost 6%. it is a very significant development. worsts the fourth performing emerging market bond in the world. a lot of investors are looking what is happening and saying now is a good time to buy ukrainian bonds. they call it a tactical move because they think things are not going to be as bad as most people think. >> what are the chances of europe stepping in and offering, for example, ukraine a bilateral loan? fact that is a possibility. we have the polish prime minister saying he is talking to european countries as we speak. he says we need to sweeten our offer of financial assistance to ukraine. ukraine owes an enormous amount of money to the imf. they can't pay all themselves. vychett co. which -- yanuko said, look, this is real
>> welcome back to "on the move ." i am francine lacqua in london. here are is a recap on the biggest market movers. caroline hyde, john ferro and manus cranny are all here. let's kick things off. and the fed competing with the limelight and of course mulberry. talk about turkey. the turkish central bank had an emergency meeting and they moved really hard. you saw a pop in the turkish lira. i thinkoing forward you have to ask a couple of things. they might give the central bank more credibility but does it stop the rot? there are still allegations in that country of political corruption. that is not going away anytime soon. >> that is something investors don't li. the fed? what the statement brings, whether they are even remotely interested in what markets do. i am being facetious. the statement will be key.
lower for mulberry. >> even more than that. 140 million pounds wiped off their market capitalization. it is the worst day since 1998. down now by 26%. all about profit warning, the u.k., discount from the high street and the christmas period hurt mulberry hard. they say the overall profit for this year will be substantially below estimates. >> i was speaking to jerry fowler earlier on and he was saying the problem in 2014 is that, we look at the macro but high valuations are always the risk. they may seriously underperform. >> you have got overall, they are trying to say, look we are pushing internationally. sales are up 34% in that time have them -- time period. not so in the u.k. >> guy johnson and i are back with "the pulse" coming up next. don't miss anshu jain speaking to bloomberg first today. we will bring you that interview
>> turkey stuns investors with a huge rate hike. the move drives up the lira. other emerging market currencies and even stocks here in europe. 99%,president for the barack obama calls for a higher minimum wage taking aim at income inequality in the states. chrysler.for fiat they are set to announce a new name and they plan to set up a base outside italy. good morning. welcome. you are watching "the pulse