tv On the Move Bloomberg May 16, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT
-- a reprieve. >> what is behind this? points good 90 basis higher. can you read a lot into it? no big consensus. >> we will see how the day plays out. let look at some of the indian market. coalitions if the will have more than 300 seats. you are looking at stocks making a record high. the rupee also moving along briskly. let's have a look at the rupee. majority. the
biggest weekly rally since september of last year. weakness. th dollar et's cross to david tweed. >> isn't this an amazing story n france? it doesn't stop giving. of mergingeculation the telecom unit with orange in france. he would consider some sort of merger, but they haven't that with whom. -- haven't said with whom. i will be back a little later. creditare looking at lease. be close.d
they could end this are but with lotg price. i think it's a -- eagern anticipated. than anticipated. it could be over soon. you and i spent some time with the man. they have made a provision. have they been big enough? >> i am checking what teachers are doing at the moment. futures are doing at the moment. markets are getting a little bit of a bounce. >> have a look at the markets. we had a heavy loss and inequities markets. you see the ftse up attempt. -- attend. -- a tenth.
the equities market that hasn't been where it has been. seen spanish bond yields hitting record lows. germany yields lower. the widest since march 17. , butch of economic reality where the money has really been made is in treasuries. returned 13% this year. in theey has been made bond market. really, it is a pessimistic view driving them lower in the u.s. that is not very good news. we will talk about the market rally. the indian rupee up 7/10 of one percent.
551 million votes in the election. it looks like they are going to have an absolute sweepstake. you are seeing the dollar getting weaker at the rupee getting stronger. rallyingkets have been significantly leading up to this and a lot of people talking about it the christ in. in.eing priced >> joining us to discuss the top things moving markets. the portfolio manager from sterling capitol. good to have you here. let's start with india. it looks like they are going to have power. are you enthusiastic? >> the indian market has performed extremely well. happensysis of what
during the election cycle shows marketpically the stock tends to do very well going into the election and around the election results. then it underperforms, depending on how much the government can deliver. are already pricing the good news. then thinking the government can democracy.nge you might find some problems. >> it takes a little bit longer. one thing that has changed is perhaps it is time to start going out of the indian market and looking towards other emerging markets. you are concerned about china as well.
>> we are looking to reach out from profit now where everything is good. we can see a bit more rally. we are concerned about the emerging market in general. one is china. the growth has to settle around a much lower number than previously thought. have a different effect on many markets. we think the fed will not only go on with tapering. it will increase rates may be islier than what the market looking at now. around the ends of summer next year.
we think if inflation in the u.s. picks up it can be even like the beginning of summer. whether it is three months before or after it is not a big deal. the problem is emerging markets can suffer from a tightening cycle. thehat is what we saw from beginning of the year. we saw an immediate impact. theyis a breathing spot have been given. who is still at risk? from an investment point of view the risk reward ratio is still not attractive in a country like south africa, turkey, brazil, and so on. rex we are going to leave it there. we are going to do europe when we come back from the break. here is a look at what is coming
here is a look at what stock is on the move. it is one of the biggest stocks of the day. talks.e in consolidation across the industry. let's leave it there. david tweed is in berlin. >> i am going to tell you as dori. you will understand a bit about how french government and industry works. are four main operators in france. you have orange, which is the biggest. you have got deleted.
you have got a lot of competition -- you have got iliad. you have a lot of competition in france. companies go thinking of cutting maintain probability. they have send a letter to the industry commissioner. they sent a letter saying they are worried they might lose their jobs. he said, i think we need to have three operators in france. in order to have three one needs to disappear. that is why we have this speculation a are going to get together. be problems if that happens. orange is the biggest operator
in france. if it merges they will have half of the mobile users in france, and that could cause antitrust issues. probably takeill on the authorities on this. before you start rejoicing, there are going to be certain legal implications. >> talk to me about virgin mobile as well. they are in exclusive talks there. >> i was talking how there are four mobile operators in france. mobile is a virtual mobile operator, so it doesn't own the network. it leases part of the network. they are in
exclusive talks to buy virgin mobile for about 325 million euros. it's a sideshow. >> i am always a little bit wiser at the end of that discussion. france is the place to do things. let's return to the portfolio manager. discussion --in a m and a discussion. what is your take? more to come? but i think there is more to come. it's something we always ask.. i think companies that have
experienced a lot of rusher -- pressure on costs and pressure on improving the margins are looking at ways to do that. his appointingth growth numbers in europe. didn't rake much doubt in her speech. should we be concerned about europe? europe, but ifis this gross number really comes as no surprise them a that is a surprise to me. we wouldn't have expected ,uropean growth to be very low so probably they were thinking europe could take up very ugly.
-- pick up very quickly. europe will follow suit for a lag. >> you have some big calls in terms of market. and you financials, have an interesting take on high-yield. talk me through financials very good x on the bond side we like financials. the new tier one because we think europe is going through healing, so for the time being they can be a good play and a market where it is he coming tighter and tighter. there is less yield. they can become a problem in the next cycle. great. high-yield you have a little bit of a warning with regard to high-yield.
>> we like high-yield. he think -- we think when we , things are ok generally speaking. tight, but it can ,till stay tied for a long time asecially trying to delay much as possible. the problem is the liquidity in >> i wish we had more time. let's talk a little bit about credit we. .- credit suisse they could be close to setting a deal with the american authorities. what is the latest?
according to three people familiar with the matter, we could be close to closing this chapter. he seemed pretty confident the bank was making progress. they were making visible just set they have aside more money. to 2011.in addition when i asked if he could roll out further provisions he could not. that is much bigger than many people anticipated. >> how does this stack up to the rival? it is less a much isn't it? >> it is much less. credit suisse not as much. analysts say they are weaker. -- quicker.
remember, the pressure has done in both directions. they have been criticized for the time they take to deal with this. when he testified in february he attributed the wrongdoings to a fuse with bankers who skirted controls. emphasized it was part of the business. >> you sat down just over the season. you challenged him. you said where does this leave you. waxy has been on the executive boards since 2003. the fact is nobody knew these rings were happening. i think
it's fair to say he is a professional man trying to put this time the banks. there has been a gray cloud, and he wants to wrap things up. the good news is they could to closing thee chapter. ask what the f a actually do those deals. that they actually do deal. wages. theminimum swiss miss no opportunity to deal with the big issues that affect their country. switzerland the place you want to be to get paid the minimum wage?
they stressed the flexibility will keep them competitive in a dangerous world. >> now you are better than that. that is how it is going to be developed. yes, butad. costly, that's the way the world looks at. complicated task. 23,000 parts. >> there is only one machine and the entire planet because this is labor intensive work. 30y are putting in kilometers of wiring.
a noset step they get and some wings. they produce eight a year but want to increase. the goal is a 10% share of the --ket. it is maurice straightforward, but it also depends on conditions out of their control. >> who is going to win? two, yous 1, 5 versus can set up a scenario. months --vide extra excellent performance. >> if i were a test islets from another country -- test pilot from another country i could test it capabilities in the full and follow. -- full envelope.
bike that looks pretty cool. correspondentnal joins us for more. that looks pretty cool in terms of reporting. meters that they take these claims along. they say they have been thieves because they have gone from 70,000 2d drawings. everything is re-be, but they say the next will be cheaper. you compare it to some of the competitors. it is much cheaper. one thing they are seizing and is the $11 billion of maintenance. it looks like voters are going to reject this.
>> welcome back to "on the move." i'm manus cranny here at bloomberg's european headquarters in london. here's a picture for you of european equity markets. r. are flattered gross to mastech part numbers. we are waiting for housing starts in the u.s., along with consumer confidence. are we getting set for a
pullback? that is the question on traders minds. like mr. modi will indeed take power. we have broken the 25,000 level on the sensex. certainly, a great deal of uplift. some stocks are very interesting. this is just a complexion for you, a little bit of an indication. thosen eye on some of stocks. those are markets. let's give you the bloomberg headlines. ukrainians have dislodged separatist from several bases in the east. the government is working to expand constitutional powers to allow for local self-government.
u.s. and european officials say they will punish russian industries if this month's presidential election is undermined. bad loans at chinese banks rose the most in any quarter since 2005. this is the 10th straight quarter in the default. chinese banks will build offers to cover loan losses. u.s. holdersong hit a six-year high according to a national federation of independent business. janet yellen credits businesses with less than 50 employees for the majority of job growth since 2010. >> america has come a long way since the dark days of the financial crisis. small businesses deserve a foriderable share of credit to investment and hiring
support that progress. >> india's electoral commission says the opposition bjp has won enough seats in parliament to form a government on its own. without the need to enter a coalition, that is according to the associated press. soon after the announcement, has one.ted -- india is a big magic number, is net? 272 is a number he needed. it looks like he has got it. >> you bet he has got it. 272 was the number. that theelling us national democratic alliance is leading. the bjp on its own will cut off
at the 272 mark. counting is not over yet. is set totantly, modi form a government and become the new prime minister. what this means for india is that it has survived the economy which has been in a funk. at this point in time, with the numbers available to us, it is very clear that the bjp led coalition will form a government at the center. >> we're been covering since the move. this is big moves in these markets. bet these are big moves. if five percent rally on both the other market.
-- and the nifty. what the markets are really watching is the formation of a stable government. means india will not only have a stable government but a strong government under the bjp .ed by mr. modi the market was clearly looking for direction, decisive action and someone who means business. that is what they're trying to reflect. they're hoping he will replicate the same magic at the central government in india as well. >> that is what the markets are going to be looking for, that replication.
hasha, thank you for that report. let's try and put this all into a little bit more perspective. invested -- isis the investment director for london capital. modi has tweeted that india has won. >> it is unexpected good news. now, we have much better will beon that modi able to put his land into place very quickly. he was able to push through a lot of reforms and was able to get infrastructure spending very quickly.
all the handicaps are taken out of the system so you is able to get the capital in very quickly. >> that is at a local level. >> correct. >> i've never been to india. execution, execution, execution. it is much different at a national level. the messy infrastructure projects have been stalled. some have not been completed, others have been on the drawing board. we need all those to be really need to be given the greenlight for a quickly. we are now cruising at growth rate between 4.5% and five percent. we need to get back up to seven percent to get growth in order. that thatp call is growth is achievable. >> it may take up to two years to get to that level. >> let's talk about liquidity.
that rush continue? >> the markets clearly anticipated good election results because they have been running for a while. the fx market has also recovered half of the losses we took earlier. the best of the recovery is find this in the short term. things will calm down from this short euphoric worst. liquidity flows will come in a time.onths' >> you have a heck of an appetite for risk. if you are really going to trade emerging markets, you have to be prepared to take risks. one of the conversations i had this morning was, you had your value run on the currency and equity side. you should rotate out of that and look elsewhere, agree? disagree? if so, where? >> the markets are going to remain under pressure for a
while. all the volatility we have seen in the exchange rate and the slowdown in exports is going to have an impact on the corporate earnings cycle. need one or two quarters of corporate earnings to absorb the negative impact of what is happening the last few months. , butatings are attractive chances are there will be a bit more attractive than six months time than they are now. you'll probably want to hold fire for now and wait for all the results to come through before you engage in the emerging markets, generally. >> before we started the conversation, i was reading a headline in regards to china and the writing level of defaults there. how concerned are you with the china slowdown? we are mildly concerned in the fact that they have a lot of flexibility. they haven't really started the big spending program, but the budget deficit spending program cannot be initiated. there are a lot of things they
can do right now. it had to make sure that things are calm in terms of the property market. it has been a very speculative phase. there's been a lot of excess building going on. there has been an inevitable estate thathe real must happen before they can move forward. that's a fairly worrying number. >> it will probably get worse in the short term before it improves after that. great to have you here to help us break down the indian election results. uber speeds towards the 10 billion dollar value club. heck doubleas written all over it.
every month the market gets excited about it. why do we care so much? what does this tell us about the whole industry? >> that is a good question, importanthink the thing about this car sales is that you need to put them into the context of what has happened in europe over the last six years. what we are seeing at this stage is a recovery in that market. and is why the car industry investors are so enamored with these numbers. what we have seen his five and six months of gains after six straight years of solid contraction. 2013 was the worst year for car sales in two decades. that is why the industry is so interested in what is going on here. , iting at the april sales is true, up 4.2%. that was the slowest growth in five months. that is april. that is giving us a little bit of a clue about what consumers might be up to in the first
quarter -- in the first month of the second quarter for gdp. we just got the european gdp numbers in for the first quarter. they were disappointing, as you know, leading up into this -- is an indication of how the spending outlook might be going into the second quarter. staying with this general theme, european auto executives are expecting to see some sort of growth in the market, to percent -- two percent-three percent. through -- >>ng >> talk me through the brands. how is your adopted country during? >> germany was one of the top five markets that sell. what happened there was you saw a decline partly because of the
decline in the actual vw brand iself went down by 0.5%. think everything that i take out of this is a fact that you see not the top and but the middle to lower and is doing extremely well. that is sending a message about consumer behaviors. if you look at the vw brand skoda, up 22%. -- iu look at peugeot ,hould say rent no -- renault 34% heardbrand is up many don't see such big gains in the lecture segment, the biggest gain in the luxury segment was bmw, up three percent. mercedes up 1.9%. ok, david, we will leave it
there. we'll keep our eye on the clues. er is joining the $10 billion club. the car service is seeking funding that could triple valuation to over 10 billion dollars. joining us now from hong kong with more on the story is bloomberg's lulu chan. where uber, that is d at.be value >> this company is raising $1 billion from investors. if that does happen, that will place them among a small group of companies with 11 digit valuation. we have seen companies like come to market with such valuations. what this shows, is there a
bubble? that is one of the concerns out there. if you look at the number of , in lines -- of pipelines terms of vc funding, it is at the highest level since 2001. just looking here in asia, and china we have seen a pipeline of baidu, alibabaas and others. and have all said they want ipo within the next few years. >> give me a sense, they're raising capital, expansion plans, what are the plans, what is it going to look like, who are they going to compete with? >> i understand part of the funding will come out to asia. they already have operations in 20 cities here in asia. they're looking to expand to cities like hong kong and other
second-tier cities in china. go into the market, they will be competing with companies backed by $.10, alibaba, to name two. in terms of the clients that they cater to, slightly different there. does cater to a slightly higher segment of customers. they work mostly with chauffeur companies that are working with hotels. have overlapsill in the business in the future is still way too early to see. >> it is a very special club, double-digit billions. thank you very much for that lulu. lulu >> it is the biggest election
victory for a group in 30 years. >> and a majority. >> the opposition has thrown in the towel. the bjp opposition led group have a majority. is it the beginning of a new era in indian politics yeah, we have two fantastic guests today. we'll be talking about the challenges that face this opposition bloc. out.i has already tweeted he said that india has one. won. another glasses centrica guest.
they sell vintage frames and glasses from the 1970's and 1990's. >> vintage 1990's? offs., but they are one heard about the grace of monaco film? a timeless camp classic. on cannes. we have the founder of a company called every man independent cinema. they believe in the experience as much as the film, giving you pizza, glass of wine. and also a chap from film london who promotes london is a filmmaking capital. >> do prefer that to the
mezzanine experience? >> i think so. >> you are a classy guy. >> let's give you a quick check on those indian markets. of historic day in terms market. the dollar rupee sees his second week of gains against the dollar. taking the, mr. modi outright majority with 272 seats. it is an historic day. we will be back in just two. ♪
>> 55 minutes into the trading day. at the close of trades this week. let's see where the markets take us. . little bit of a decline we will wait for some more ecb rhetoric. >> i think we are building up and heating up towards that big meeting on june 5. it is not equities, not even the euro. it is this rally we have seen in spain, and italy. they have moved back a little
bit now. is it is actual mass of correction. we have had inflation and the eurozone come down from around 2.5% to 0.5%. that is a big move. according to mario draghi, it is down to food and energy. >> the move has not been that big. to question is for the ecb do something. will they disappoint? a lot of people say their credibility is on the line. fire thatel to the you are expecting something. will a rate cut disappoint the market? this market is prepare for something bigger. >> most are prepared to think they are not at the end of standard measures. that involves a straightforward see how thet's