tv On the Move Bloomberg September 11, 2014 3:00am-4:01am EDT
strategy for dealing with the islamic state. vowing to degrade and destroy them. i am watching all things scottish this week and next. the big bank and scotland saying it would be necessary to read domicile their headquarters -- redomicile their headquarters. at gas.looking the flow of gas. a limited supply to poland yesterday. yesterday they announced their profit down 40%. they have a lot of money but no certainty of any resolution in ukraine. >> the markets just opening here in europe. we are higher. up by .3%. yes, then you sell
sterling. if it says no, what do you do? not a lot. it is interesting if you get a no vote, it squeaks. the consciousness of the mind is still skewed toward the down side that the risk is there that scotland could say yes and to leave the union. let me take this back. they -- there is still breath left. they say a dollar 50. -- $1.50. there is a theme there. when it comes to this scottish risk of voting yes, when it comes to the fund managers action in regards to a vote of yes. months, is it a
stampede or just a little bit of nervousness. purely u.k. equities, you have 1,n up close from july through september 8. the equivalent of $2 billion. fans say theya have never owned as little of the u.k. since february 2013. that is the positioning. china, inflation below estimates. mario draghi speaks tonight. another day, another poll. acid backed securities. getting it out there helping the industry get going and europe. that is not the overture to an opera. why not use a musical equivalent. german government bond him a 1.6% -- 1.06%, excuse me.
a 15 year differential. that we arestocks watching, let the screen not run away from a. markets inying the terms of what they will do for us. to their earnings. hoping to bring the down stock up by 2.4%. next, up. the sales will be up 10% in the third quarter and then they drop grade they stick with a full-year target. look at the performance of that stock rather than everybody else. that is the key thing. they are not disappointing. , travel andlivered arrived. cliche, but good. rbs says don't worry about your money, we will move our hitch. they will be around here.
>> that is your market open her. we are up by .3% right now. let's get some perspective from bill blaine. first question, what will we talk about? the hope we will talk about dollar and the euro. if we talk about scotland i will scream. >> scream, we will talk about scotland. >> high impact. always knew itwe had a possibility but we didn't think it was very likely that this would happen. for the last month it has changed a lot. has it? and lookd to step back at what is really going on with the scottish vote. it is all about halle takes. you have scare stories getting thrown in. this morning about standard life and others withdrawing and leaving. the end of the story for
scotland. as many threats as possible. there is nothing else in the news except a battering in these rebellious scots. at the end of the day, it is all about political threat. , as the bookies are saying, it remains a no vote, then this is all finished. i don't think we will see it going on long term. sort itself out. if scotland does vote yes, we will not see the end of the world. the sun will come up the next day. scotland will still have oil and they will still have multiple whiskey which is one of the biggest earners in the country. scotland will store -- sort itself out. >> let's say we get the yes. paint me a picture. >> at the end of the day will some --, some kind of accommodation between scotland
and what is left of the u.k. about how the currency will work , how the banks will be supervised. i don't think we will end up to its own.d left that would be so destructive. there will be pragmatism once the vote is out-of-the-way. today the politics are about scare stories. since we are in the market we should get over that and look at the practicalities. this is a buy opportunity in your mind? >> it potentially is a buy opportunity. i'm going with the bookies and that it will be a no vote. i think a lot of the people being polled are saying, i don't know. we get the no vote and things will go back to where they were before. if that happens, the scare disappears and who knows, if it cameron may keep his head on his shoulders. >> you think there will be zero
hangover if we get a no? it makes anyink real difference at all apart from the number of scottish financial jobs. scotland is heavy on financial jobs. >> europe, a little tease for what is coming after the break? >> spain is a different situation. it is a different dynamic at play in spain. that boils in to where the euro is going and the big trade of the moment which is the carry trade into buying dollars. that's what we should really be talking about. not this nonsense north of the border. >> in three minutes we will talk about the nonsense in the euro zone. coming up in "on the move." contingency planning. scotland needs the 150 billion pounds of reserves. we will head to edinburgh for an update.
up by 7.44%. growth at 15.5%. 8%.estimate was 14 point we know how challenging this particular industry is, but that is take. the retail environment is challenging. they expect to continue growing sales probably in line with the grocery market. you can compare them to tesco. later on we will talk about president barack obama. quest is a relentless campaign to destroy islamic state militants in iraq and syria. in a televised speech he said the u.s. would lead a broad coalition comprised of air and u.s. forces on the ground. is this a strategy we were waiting for? >> there weren't any huge surprises but the strategy insofar as it was outlined on
the eve of the september 11 terrorist attacks was in two words, degrade and destroy. that's what president obama says the americans intend to do with the islamic state extremist group which has carved out a portion of territory in iraq and syria. to administration officials to give more detail to what that strategy will have. one of these ways would be to have the training and equipping of rebel groups from syria being inside saudimps arabia. that was not something we necessarily expected. we also heard that it may also include airstrikes on syria. something that hasn't happened so far. >> i've made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists that threaten our country wherever they are. i will not hesitate to take inion against heisel -- isil
syria as well as iraq. if you threaten america, you will find no safe haven. the u.s. secretary of state is are ready in the region. >> i don't know what that alarm is but hopefully you can hear me again. today tosaudi arabia speak to the saudi's. we also understand that jordan will play some kind of undefined role in this broad coalition that obama says he is putting together. out, keen tong stress this isn't a repeat of the last war. what a lot of people are questioning that. >> there are some obvious differences and similarities. that the u.s. is involved in a military campaign
that the u.s. is involved in a military campaign. but not at the behest of the iraq he government. iraqi government. it is at the request of the iraqis, but the key thing that obama was key to stress is that in contrast, there will not be u.s. boots on the ground. >> i want the american people to understand how this will be different from the war in iraq and afghanistan. it will not involve american combat troops fighting on foreign soil. so this alarm is going again, more in the next hour or so. >> i look forward to that elliott. joining me again is bill blaine. let's talk about the bond markets. spanish bond yields.
up 10 yesterday, seven today. down a little bit today. some people drawing what is going on in scotland to what might be happening in spain. dynamic.is a different the catalonian's do care about independence. they don't have much in common with some of the other parts of spain. if that turns around, it will not be like scotland were you lose a small, marginal part of the british economy. if you lose the catalan, you are losing a key driver of spain. that is one of the reasons we have seen people suggesting the trade exit spain and by italy. that makes no sense at all. spain has made some positive improvements. they have reformed. austerity has turned around their economy. because of a breakup
with the catalan's, so be it. but italy has done very little to reform its economy or to correct its heavy indebted situation. the trade to be looking at with such low rates is not to put money into another risky, lightly to can flag your rate te state likelura italy. france is a challenged economy but does have an excellent industry. back some ofold the things affecting business and some of the social laws, then france could see a driven economy. that is not a long-term process during -- process. you have to hold out hope. it is easy to sit here in london
and pontificate how bad france is, it was only a few years ago that the french were pontificating about how bad we were. >> let's talk about france. you are in the bond market every day. people will be looking and saying they are cutting their budget deficit target again, adding their growth target. it seems to be pushed out of the long grass in 2017, but bond yields go nowhere. does that continue? is one of thethat factors driving all the european bond markets. there is such distortion going 's and it goes back to draghi promise to do whatever -- also it is the increase holds that are perceived to be safe. we have loads of cash coming from the long-term repos and other sources and what do they do? what it into the safest assets
they can find. the government bond markets are off on a path that seems no relation to political reality at how difficult it is for economies like france to reform themselves. >> two things -- three, in fact. europe creating loads of headlines, the fed seems to have dropped off the radar compared to where it was this time last year. a big meeting this month. >> this week has been a quiet week. last week was druggy, this week nothing and it will all be about what yellen comes out and says. i'm not sure it matters that much if we hear more threats of u.s. interest rate rises sooner rather than later. u.s. dollars.ing they are buying treasuries. the demand for u.s. dollar assets are going through the ceiling because people expect a strengthening dollar.
this big trade that is going on now, borrow in euros, i dollars, you will see -- buy dollars. you will see a return there. >> one final note, a big day for bgc. >> today is our charity day. this is in remembrance of all our staff who were killed 11 years ago. company who does a trade with bgc, all the cash goes to charity. >> thank you bill blaine. a day we will remember. -- a thought to those thought to those with people who lost their lives. followsg up, bloomberg an order of several hundred pairs of trousers to the new york newsroom to see how well
volatile, but with volatility people can make money. for you toimportant give it that stamp of approval, that endorsement. >> because i'm not foolish. if people have a lot of bitcoins they wanted to go up. rather they spend that money on our spaceships, , ifher i keep my bitcoins they spend that money on the virgin galactic spaceship. we will grab the money while it is there. >> it is volatile. sir richard branson giving his two cents. air france is targeted eight to 10% higher growth through 2017. the french carrier plans to keep reducing unit costs at 1.5% per year.
the company announced its strategic plan to investors today. for as soon asg this year. the hamburg-based game maker will have several banks to manage the listing. it has a value of $1.7 billion. and rbs is doing what we expected. it's warning it will have to move its headquarters from edinburgh in the case of scottish independence. the possible business implications of a yes vote. a number of material uncertainties arising. another company we are watching ga ussia's gas problem -- zprom. a decline that was even bigger than estimated. is a drop, but this is the company that shifts not just
natural gas but money and cash to its shareholders. they still have profit even with that 41% decline. istalk about gazprom important to put it in the context of the ukraine and yesterday, with poland. byy limited flow to poland 25%. been doing these reverse flows and have been shipping gas to the ukraine. the ukraine has a dispute with they have unpaid bills and we don't know how it will shake out. or is a great deal of uncertainty. the forecast for jazz from -- -- we don't know how hard it will be, we don't know about the resolution with the ukraine, and we don't know if gazprom will push for full payment. and 80% increase on their last
i am jonathan ferro. your tradingto day. this is what the market looks like. just higher by an inch. rushing by. everybody looking for scotland and the polls to come out. the newest poll gets the no vote. let's pick out some stocks. who does the shopping. >> we share the workload. i buy on a daily basis. william morrison, earlier shares rose as much as 6%. the biggest rise since january
2014. up by 7.4%. that was bigger than the 6.7% estimate on bloomberg from the analysts. the underlined creek tax profit, , but the benefits of its revival plan they say won't be felt until later this year. will redomicile if there is a yes vote and the scottish referendum. matter, theyesn't will leave regardless if there is a yes vote or no vote. the risk has become irreversible and it could cost the bank as much as one billion pounds. next, better to travel than arrive. shares down by 2%. in line, and up at 50
pence. fourth quarter at 4%. no further special dividend this year. that is the reason why shares are down. it does have the financial capacity to buy back shares, it may do so. this is a company whose shares have risen by 28% this year. >> a very punchy market. these are your three top headlines. rely on mideast allies to escalate an offensive against the islamic state extremists. in a speech to the nation, the president said the u.s. would be joined by a broad coalition of partners. he says he is prepared to strike on both sides of the iraq syria border. >> i have made it clear that we will hunt down terrorists who threaten our country wherever they are. i will not hesitate to take action against isil in syria and iraq.
this is a corporate simple, if you threaten -- this is a core principle, if you threaten america you will find no safe haven. chinese inflation, fueled bets with the government without stimulus. this is a 2.2% estimate. saysof england, carney scotland may need reserves of 150 billion pounds without sterling. it'scotland planned to and union with england. >> we have contingency plans. we would obviously implement them if it all -- if at all required in the short-term to support financial stability. >> let's stick with scotland here in "on the move."
they may decide to leave edinburgh regardless of the outcome. let's bring in countdown a core -- countdown anchor, anna edwards. yesterday,id it although these banks saying they may see it as necessary to redomicile their headquarter south of the border's, one assumes. with a yes vote. what it might do to their credit rating and they're worried about their cost to borrow. out, the is pointing stock is bouncing this morning. that is taking away a little bit of nervousness. both banks are part owned by the u.k. government. from the treasury perspective, as the biggest shareholder in rbs, you have a lot of taxpayer money invested. they will want that back at some point and they don't want it domiciled in some country they don't control.
do we go with the polls or the bookies? >> the bookies say a no vote. today's polls suggest a no vote. it does not show the same trend ov polls. the ug the last poll showed the yes camp was gaining ground, this shows that it is unchanged since the end of august. perhaps something for the to smile about. i want to have a look at what it means for edinburgh. the banking institutions and the presence they have. in theeight jobs financial sector is more than 30%. in scotland,eople 16,000 people are employed by lawyers. they are saying this won't affect their everyday operation
in scotland, that might be really true -- hardly true. partly true. , deposit flight being highly likely and problematic. talking about recession as a result of a yes vote, artfully -- partly because of the redomiciling. have a bighat could impact on the scottish economy. >> and the u.k. assets as well? >> a number of businesses speaking out. politicians have been love bombing scotland. at, -- nottated them all businesses jumping in on this. morrison this morning, tesco. they are going to leave it to the scots. they will do business whatever
happens. investorget the perspective on the scottish today. in edinburgh, the managing director of svs thanks for joining us. a month ago, hardly anybody in this rk really paid attention to this event. has something changed in the last month or did everybody outside scotland not appreciate how close this would be. since we had the last debate i think it would change the use and some of the undecideds perhaps started to commit area there has been some underlying change. there has been a wide degree of error. >> westminster and threadneedle street digging their heels in. sterling a big no-no for an independent scotland. i think there are concerns
about currency. it remains to be seen in the event of a yes vote just exactly what arrangements the bank of england has in mind. in thosean interest circumstances in trying to preserve as much of the structure that we have in the u.k. on a federal basis. an attemptre will be to maintain the institutions that the u.k. has. talking about equities, you hold lloyd's, you hold standard life. are you rethinking those positions. markions question -- positions? >> i think there are some issues driving banks right now. that find the easy credit environment now. lots of issues driving these
banks. we are betting partly on an economic prospect. the banks have shown that they have a potential strategy should they need to relocate or restructure the business. outcome,less of the does it give an up uncertainty for these banks, rbs, to move from edinburgh no matter what happens on friday morning next week? >> there is a real prospect of that. we have seen that in other areas like canada with the bank of montreal. it is quite possible they may want to see clarity. for all intents and purposes, most of the head office decisions are made in london already. the administrative staff may or main in scotland.
the change of the registered is a lot the regulator simpler and involves fewer jobs than people think. i don't think this will be a major change. >> you are based in scotland but you don't just invest in the u.k.. when we talk about dominoes falling, do you think what is happening in spain in the catalonian region could be more significant than scotland right now? >> yes i think it could. at the moment pressures and other parts of europe are more thanevolution independents. but europe moved away from a europe of the regions. catalant so much a region but in some parts of italy and elsewhere, there are interests in some form of devolution. once we have seen that europe could be fragmented, it is much easier for other regions to
suppress their case. >> i keep hearing this one thing. my head says no, my heart says yes. are you experiencing that a lot? think a lot of the arguments on both sides is a fact free zone. a lot of people are approaching this from an emotional perspective. in whatficult to factor might happen economically. there is not really a lot of thatled debate on facts, applies to both sides. >> very diplomatic, thank you for joining us. catalonia to catatonia, britain is not the only nation fearing a yes vote. today is the national day of catalonia in spain. many supporters will flood the streets of barcelona a lobby for their own referendum in
november. let's go to midrange. -- madrid. do expect anything to happen today? catalan the the lands is all about demonstrating to madrid the strength and the brett of support for this oferendum -- breadth support for this referendum. they're sending a message to la to pass thee has referendum or he would be going against the overwhelming democratic will of the catalan people. rajoy has said that it is unconstitutional and that any attempt to hold a vote will be got by the constitutional court image read. -- madrid.
they could move into the next phase of this poker match. >> what changes the government's mind? are they looking for numbers on the street? things, the two catalan leaders are trying to strike an extremely positive tone. they are about catalan tradition and values, but within the coalition, supporting the push for independence there is a range of views and some of them are becoming increasingly antagonistic toward madrid. attentionare signs of and anti-madrid feeling on the fringe of the debate. the second thing is a question of the strength of the turnout. there has been a big scandal over the last couple of months because the former regional to a datingmitted
taxes in spain. for 30 years. that has been seen as a deliberate ploy. it is understood he was pressured into doing that. to weakenoy by madrid support for the catalan elite. that, thisnt of interest in catalonia, their support for the vote of independence is weakening. that would be seen by madrid as that their plans are having some success. >> thank you for joining us. a little bit of scottish fever in spain. the break, we leave you with one stock on the move, it togazprom. it took a big hit the bottom line last quarter. ♪ >> welcome back, this is "on the
only 13 minutes left of me, then you are stuck with guy johnson on "the pulse." >> you might not be, we might be , i press salman conference is expected later on. in terms of today, is this about scotland. we will consider -- continue that conversation. british business in europe, strong views on scotland as well. the for director general of the cpi, the former trade minister will be talking about his views on what is happening in scotland and the risk for opportunity of the vote next week. theill also be talking to current boss of the confederation of industry. we will be hearing from katie
owen, we will get there take on where we are at the moment. the view from their polling numbers is that we are in stagnation and not momentum in level of the votes. fitch about what is happening in scotland. >> busy show, busy day, busy week. we haven't forgotten about russia because the russian state .wned gas producer its first-quarter profit fell 41% from one year ago. 30% of the eues gas. first-half earnings per share, analyst estimates in the fashion retailer sees third-quarter sales growth of 10%. some things don't add up. one of the biggest haters --
gainers on the stoxx 600. the revival plan will not be felt until later in the year. than analysts had anticipated. the u.k. supermarket has been slashing prices to compete. next, alibaba, you'll be sitting there saying what? it is set to become the world's largest ipo. unthinkable, the we ordered a few hundred pairs of trousers to test the service. ♪ >> we await what could be the
world's biggest ipo. how alibaba actually works. has been talking about alibaba from silicon valley to wall street. it is pretty huge. it is the world's largest e-commerce company. last year there were more than $240 billion in transactions on alibaba's site. that is more than amazon and ebay combined. of all e-commerce in china happens on an alibaba site. it's ipo might be the biggest in world history. but those are just numbers.
what makes it more interesting is that this chinese company can connect you with millions of manufacturers around the world. i wanted to put alibaba through its paces. i wanted to use the site to help me find a manufacturer who could make something. seemed like a good idea. i had to create a buying request. within a day of posting, i had replies from manufacturers and india, china, and many others. any replies from companies that word alibaba gold suppliers. tomeans they submitted background checks and are not running a scam. among the remaining companies, i judged the responses on basics like price and delivery time and how well written their responses were. it's a little bit like online
dating, ultimately i decided to work with the manufacturer and pakistan. i know what you're thinking, how can i be sure they were sweatshops? i checked with the u.s. department of labor and international affairs journal and they gave this project a clean bill of health. get started, my guy and pakistan needs money. this can happen in a couple of different ways. alibaba have an escrow service y"lled "alipa anernatively, you can pay manufacturer directly using western union or wire transfers. what start by considering i'm asking for. i'm looking for pairs of pants in four colors among multiple sizes and more than one of each. 280 pairs ofthe
pants. at nine dollars a pair, my total 2520 dollars. getting the pants shipped would cost another $1983. that would get my hands flown from pakistan to new york in two days. how they go? it was simple. it's like combining a craigslist ad with a giant 3-d printer. i got exactly what i was looking for. a big mess of pants. they came out.. fine. what i do now? i have enough pants to last the rest of my life, or i could share them with 279 of my closest friends. guarantee, there isn't a pair on the streets like them. >> i just hope he didn't expense
>> quitting scotland. r.b.s. and lloyds, will it relocate to london if the scots vote for independence? we will not be a lender of last resort. mark carney warns the price will be high if scotland decides to go it alone. his campaign has failed to gain ground. we'll bring headlines from his news conference within the next hour.