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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  September 11, 2014 4:00am-6:01am EDT

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>> quitting scotland. r.b.s. and lloyds, will it relocate to london if the scots vote for independence? we will not be a lender of last resort. mark carney warns the price will be high if scotland decides to go it alone. his campaign has failed to gain ground. we'll bring headlines from his news conference within the next our.
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good morning, everybody. you're watching "the pulse." here at our european headquarters here in london. the latest scottish opinion polls show salmond not gaining ground, one week before the referendum. the banking story is interesting. this is a move, maybe in reaction to what we have been hearing from carney over the last few days. we will need to go to london to give us the the security we need. >> r.b.s. told us this morning. they would see it as necessary to move their headquarters, to redomicile their headquarters if there were to be a yes vote in the independence referendum. they are clearly referring to their credit rating. concerns about that. maybe they are worried about the cost of borrowing, the cost of
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doing business, if they have a domicile that is in scotland. the stock is moving higher. lloyds has similar plans to move south if there is a yes vote here. both of these banks owned by the treasury. from the government's perspective, they are probably happier to have the banks south of the border, certainly in the case of r.b.s.. there is so much taxpayer money invested in this. is will be perhaps shock for edinburgh. >> let's talk a little bit about the latest polling numbers. the poll gave the yes vote momentum. the latest vote talks more about stagnation. >> stagnation from the survey, the name of the polling company that brought us the latest round of the polling, if you like, bad
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news. it shows that the no camp still has a 6% lead against yes. this is no change compared to the poll in august. it is very important with these polls to compare them with polls previously to be consistent. there is still so much uncertainty around these polling numbers. this one comes with 3% margin of error. still pretty tight here. certainly a blow coming through for alex salmond. as far as headquarters being moved away, salmond is saying this morning this is not going to affect everyday banking. if you move the headquarters, you're not suddenly going to take all of the branches of r.b.s. they have 1,200 employees in scotland. 16,
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if we saw the financial services group, redom siling themselves, they see recession ahead for scotland if there is a yes vote, partly because of those companies moving south. they see flight likely and problem attic. - problematic. all the contracts that would need to be renegotiated because they have been written with a certain domicile in mind, if that changes, there is a lot of money for lawyers. >> lawyers will probably be very happy. thank you very much indeed. anna edwards. we'll continue the conversation on scotland. we have a great lineup of guests. a group of businessmen have come together to talk about business.
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he director general of the industry is going to talk to us as well. a lot of things to talk about and a lot of things to be done. there are plenty of other stories we need to address as well. russia's biggest company under pressure. 41% drop. ans nichols that is -- has the details. >> slightly worse. >> they still had a profit, guy of $6 billion u.s. dollars. they were lower for two reasons. one, currency. not a big surprise. we have seen the ruble under pressure. they set aside a proo vision for
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losses from the ukraine. they have a $5 billion unpaid gas bill. they initially got a discount when they decided to step away from the e.u.. when they kicked their old president out, russia jacked up the price 40%. yesterday they limited supplies to poland. poland is doing reverse flows which is to say poland is shipping some of their natural gas or was shipping some of it on to ukraine. gazprom is saying they cut off because of maintenance issues. most analysts say they are not happy with the fact that poland is helping ukraine stockpile its reserves. guy? >> where are we this terms over the relationship between gazprom and ukraine? >> well, their meetings are ongoing. there are more scheduled for later this month. clearly they are at a standstill. winter is getting closer. the closer you get to winter,
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you can make an argument that gazprom has an increased position. they are involving poland presumably on this very matter. e'll see how we get there. guy? >> hans, thanks very much indeed. hans nichols joining us from berlin. president obama is pledging a relentless campaign to destroy islamic state militants in iraq and syria. in a televised address he said the u.s. would lead a broad coalition compromising airpower and forces on the ground. elliott gotkine has more. was this a big strategy update everybody was waiting for? what kind of details did we get here? >> it is quite a broad strategy, not necessarily a new one in the sense that it entails america
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going after its enemies wherever they may be. among those enemies that america sees out there as potential threats not just for the middle east but also for the united states. that as far as obama is concerned makes it a target. >> a terrorist organization. pure and simple. our objective is clear. we will degrade and ultimately destroy isil. through a comprehensive and sustained counterterrorism strategy. >> that is the objective. in terms of the details, it is up to administration officials for journalists, e for to equip and train groups in camps inside saudi stop air strikes taking place.
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>> what does it look like in the united states in terms of what's happening on capitol hill and probably as importantly what's happening on main street? >> i think understandably, americans are not that keen on foreign campaigns, let's call them in the wake of what happened in iraq last time around, but there is a majority of respondants that support air strikes on islamic states in iraq or potentially in syria. i suppose one of the big reasons which was emphasized by obama in his speech last night is that there would be no u.s. boots on the ground. >> i want the american people to understand how this effort will be different from the bars in iraq and afghanistan. it will not involve american combat troops fighting on foreign soil. >> of course the big unanswered question here, guy, is what happens if and when islamic state is destroyed and degrade, will america stay around to support those syrian rebel groups in their fights against
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the syrian president or will they just pack their bags and go home? >> interesting questions. a lot of questions to be answered on this. elliott gotkine. coming up, british politicians and business sleersd one week to convince the voting scottish population to speak. that is coming up after the break. ♪
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>> good morning, everybody. welcome back. let's get back to our big focus. what will happen if scotland becomes independent? what will its relationship with europe look like? our guest is the founding chairman of the business for new europe. a chairman. business, incredibly show to get its act together to react to what's happening in scotland. why is that? the did we just not expect it to get in this far? >> partly yes. some businesses spoke out at the beginning and warned against the dangers of independence. i think to one expected to go from a 20% lead against independence last month to where it is nice and it is really on a knife edge to now.
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now of course business is coming up very, very strongly and i think the most emphatic one was to see the royal bank of scotland so say we're going to move our headquarters. there are 85,000 jobs. another 35,000 dependent on it. it is a huge risk. it is actually one of the reasons credit suisse has come out with quite an interesting note saying that scotland could actually plunge into a deep recession because of this flight that is coming down south. that is one of the issues speeding through in the last opinion poll which showed the no vote getting a small lead. > do you they the lack of -- basically between vocalizing the story a result of they had not planned for this story? >> i think the business community has planned. the government has had no planning. there has not just been no planning, they have not been
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llowed to actually discuss it. they just didn't want to articulate what plan b is. the difference is now they are actually articulating what that plan b is. that it was definitely worked out. >> do you think most businesses have plan b in place? >> yes. >> we spoke to a few where there is an 18-month period where we can get an idea of what the lie of the land is going to look like. while we got a look at the plumbing, there is not a plan to change the plumbing yet. >> i think they have a very clear idea what they need to do in terms of how they do it and exact time scale they will work that out immediately afterwards. lloyds hasn't decided to move huge number of its people overnight. this has been in their planning years. hs, if not
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>> do you think this will be changing opinion of the view in the u.k.? there has been another criticism the business hasn't been vocal enough on that subject as well. do you think the lesson has been learned? >> we'll have to see. there is obviously a clear readout. one of the readouts is it is much better to be voke a.m. early. one of the polls changed dramatically. you can go from a 30% lead to behind in month. it is an extraordinary situation. one of the things people have to remember is there is this huge anti-political feeling at the moment. one of the benefits is this anti-westminster feeling. er against the person who asks the question stand that can happen in scotland, we have to remember it can happen in britain and people can be as angry against a sitting prime
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minister in the middle of a referendum and the prime minister. a huge opportunity. how should business -- how should the guys that sit down with you, how should those guys take advantage of that? >> well, you're right. coup for tastic britain. they want to create a capital union in europe and is asking britain to take the lead in developing it. we have to follow up on that in terms of making the case for that project and articulating it positively and at the same time trying to push for this deeper reform that juncker has signaled that he is up for. so it is a huge opportunity for us. if we allow this to slip away
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and not follow up on it, we would be doing ourselves a great disservice, particularly in the event of a referendum. >> do you regret we didn't put up a more high profile candidate? >> at the time did but not now. we have the best possible outcome for us. the right man to take advantage of that opportunity? >> i think so. i think so. everybody who has worked with him says he is a very diligent and bright able man. he will have a very good strong team behind him. i think the business community pushing very hard on wanting to achieve those aims, there is a great opportunity there. i just hope we don't get distracted into those years of being bogged down trying to work out the separation of scotland and britain. that is another reason why a vote for independent scotland could lead -- make it more
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likely that britain leaves the european union. >> you think there isn't an opportunity to make it less likely. the fright this could give the british population. the turmoil could be low, it could be high. you don't think there is a -- we are in a moment in time now where we are looking at the structure wes operate in, the context in which those structures have been created and maybe people will take another look at them as a result of a huge potential change which could happen next week. >> i certainly hope so and i hope the business community learn the lessons from this referendum. of course we would be diminished. we would have fewer votes. we would be diminished on the international stage which would affect our bargaining position within europe. >> if you are a c.e.o. watching
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this program now, what is the advice? >> the advice is that if you believe that it is in britain's interest to stay in europe, as you believe it is in bript's interest that scotland remains part of britain, you have to speak out and say that and not fear the consequences for those who are against you and if you leave too late, it may be that you lose your argument. >> nice to see you. roland rudd. we'll continue this conversation throughout the show. scottish ain't central theme. we'll be speaking to the former u.k. trade minister, digby jones and john cridland. we have been speaking exclusively to the fer ari former chairman. resigned yesterday after pog
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working for parent company fiat. >> we have been here 23 years. we have increase in unbelievable -- at the endwill of the year historic record in terms of revenue. i'm very pleased after 23 years to leave the company in this position. this is in my opinion the best company in the world. >> we'll be speaking as well to sergio mark union. -- marchionne. >> it is the question of timing. things converge. life moves on. it was going to happen sooner or later. >> air france is targeting 8% to 10% higher growth through 2017. they plan to reduce costs by 1% a year.
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now still to come, the trouser test, as alibaba gets set for its megai.p.o. we find out how the service really works. ♪
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>> welcome back. you are looking at live pictures. the e watching carefully
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judge as we work our way towards the pistorius case. for the murder of his girlfriend, reeva steenkamp. the media coverage of the trial has affected testimony. as soon as we get aer verdict, we will bring it to you. in the meantime, to the market. to jonathan ferro. >> thanks, guy johnson. this time the no camp has the edge. another little move higher this morning. up .1%. we had a significant decline over the last 30 days. credit agricole -- the growth outlook for the u.k. is the dominant driver of this particular currency and going to go from 1.68. they lift their forecast from
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1.65 for december of this year. elsewhere, catalonia, national day. they are going to have a referendum in november for independence. no sanctions. getting a little bit of scottish fever perhaps. down today by six basis points. 2.21%. look at the equities, just the broad errekity market, ftse 100, off by .1%. r.b.s. saying we have conducted contingency plans. if we get a yes vote, we will redomicile. regardless of the outcome of that vote, do they move anyway? >> i think a lot of people will be asking that question. it depends where we end up and with this story which continues to hang over our heads, which is
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a definite possibility. what else have we still got to come? the scottish votes. jon has been talking about this. we're going to head to spain. 1 million people looking for their own referendum. ♪
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>> good morning, everybody. welcome back. you're watching "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm guy johnson. let me take you through today's top headlines. today marks the 139 anniversary over the september 11 attacks. the names of the 3,000 victims will be read at the ceremony. the u.s. will rely on middle
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eastern allies to escalate the offensive against the islamic state extremists. in a speech to the nation, president obama said the u.s. would be joined by a broad coalition of partners r a steady relentless effort. he also said he is prepared to strike on both sides of the iraqi-syrian border. r.b.s. is warning that it will move its headquarters to england if the scots vote for independence. the bank said it has begun contingency planninging in case of a yes vote. u.k. not the only european tion facing a possible breakup. is catlan national day in a lobby for their own ref republican dumb. let's go to ben in madrid. ben, what can we expect from today? >> well, today is all about a
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show of force. the president is speaking at the moment and wants to get as many people out on to the streets and just to get those images of barcelona filled with cat loania flags and nationalists demanding the right to vote. the vote they plan to hold in legal. will be ill they want to -- illegal. they want to show force. >> how far away -- and is it even possible, do you think for spain to have a referendum? >> oh, it is definitely possible. it requires -- it would require significant concessions from the
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spanish government and all of the indications that they have given so far that they are not prepared to make those concessions. o it would involve -- however, when that vote as we expect it to be blocked is blocked, they have an option to call regional elections. the parties in favor of independence have talked publicly about standing on a single platform on the issue of independence. the idea would be the regional elections as a dependence referendum. >> fascinating to watch. ben, thanks very much indeed. joining us from madrid. first half earnings are next. the fax retailer says it sees third quarter sales growth at 10%. they said they have the financial capacity to buy back
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more share sfs the price falls elow certain limits. morrison, the british grocer fell more than 7% in the first half, which was worse than nalysts anticipated. slashing prices to compete with aldi. twitter seeks up to $1.5 billion to invest in acquisitions and expansion. interesting stuff given what's happening at the moment. we need to talk about alibaba. when it goes public, it could become the largest i.p.o. in history. sam grobart put in a big order for some of his signature bright colored trousers. >> sure, everybody has been talking about alibaba from
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silicon valley to wall street. why wouldn't they? it is pretty huge. it is the world's largest e commerce country. last year there were $248. in transaction on their sites, more than amazon and ebay combined. more than 30% of all e commerce in china happens on an alibaba site. its i.p.o. might be the big nest world history. those are just numbers. what alibaba more interesting is they can connect you with millions of manufacturers around the globe capable of making just about anything. i wanted to put alibaba through its paces. i wanted to use the site to help me find a manufacturer to make me something. pants seem like a pretty good idea. i have to create a buying request. a form that describes what i want to be made. within days of posting my
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request, i had replies from china, india, pakistan, the czech republic. i first ditched any replies from companies that were not alibaba gold suppliers. it means they have submitted to some background checks. i judged on basics like price and delivery times and also how well written their responses were and other things like whether they included a picture of some pants. it is a little bit like online dating. ultimately i decided to work with a manufacturer in pakistan. now i know what you're thinking. how can i be sure these suppliers were not a bunch of sweat shops. i check thed with the international labor affairs bureau and they gave this project a clean bill of health. so to get started, my guy in pakistan needs to get some money. this can happen in a couple of different ways. alibaba has a service called
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alipay which holds your money leases it to the manufacture when you're satisfied with what you ordered. you can pay a manufacturer directly using western union or wire transfers. how much money are we talking about here? let's start by considering what i'm asking for. i'm looking for pairs of pants in four different colors in multiple size combinations and i want more than one of each. that right there gets me to $280 pivers pants. at $9 a pair, my total cost is $2520. getting the pants air shipped to $1983.d cost another how did it go? 25 days and 4,500 after i started this process, i got exactly what i was looking for. a whole big mess of pants and
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that came out fine. but what do i do now? on the one hand, have i enough pants to last me for the rest of my life, or i could share them ith 279 of my closest friends. i guarantee, there is not a pair n the streets like them. >> hard not to smile, isn't it? yeah, that is how it works. robart giving us as ever take.ique when we come back, a former u.k. trade minister gives us insight on implications of what a yes vote would mean. ♪
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>> welcome back, everybody. you are watching "the pulse." let's get back to our big focus. seven days until the scots head to polls. yes or no to leaving the united kingdom. good morning to our guest. lloyd jones.
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so much of the business is focused after the border. a lot of it is in this city. i think they actually thought well, it will be a no vote. do we care really? i think suddenly they realize, might not be a no vote and secondly, the implication is that this matters. and therefore suddenly it all happens to -- try and get it to work. >> that is not really what i'm looking for from my leadership when it comes to the corporate world. i'm looking for more insight. >> firstly, i think they will never make this mistake again. if you look at an e.u. referendum down the line, or any other big decision this will get engaged more quickly. secondly, it is a very, very difficult thing to cope with the fact that whatever happens next week, everybody knows it is going to be close. >> yeah. >> so whatever way it is going to be close. so you have half of your voting public, half of your consumers
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if you're business, half of them, your depositors in banks, half of them will not be happy. i think it will fracture relationships forever. england and scotland will never be the same again. but the big implication for business in terms of england, wales, northern ireland, but especially englant at this point, is if -- england at this point is if the way they are going to get the scots to say no, this massive amount of power. there are 200,000 more people in the westminster than the whole of scotland. secondly, if you're in orkney where the oil really is, you might just say mr. salmond, it is my oil. not yours. and thirdly, if you're -- especially, if you're newcastel, you're 30 miles away from where they are going to get loads of freedom.
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you're going to say i'm a long way from london. what about me? from a business investment, jobs, consumers, it is going to have a profound effect forever. why didn't business leaders look up to this earlier? i don't think they actually thought it was going to happen. >> back to point, i would hope for a little more -- >> although they didn't think it would happen and that might be lame, i think what is more important is they never thought it would get so fractured and nasty. the yes campaign has been a nasty campaign. that is what has worried them. >> if the yes campaign wins, it is going to get nastier. >> sure. >> if you were looking to invest in the u.k. -- let's talk about the u.k. you have 18 months of figuring out what this all means. do you pull the trigger on investments? >> no, i think in terms of the u.k., you use the word. this is divorce. this is something leaving home. so the u.k. carries on. it has 5 million fewer people.
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it has an adjustment on its g.d.p. the credit rating -- but london carries on. the west midlands with their car manufacturing carries on. it is not going to stop. people are l not stop investing . it is going to go on. where the uncertainty is in the markets. the markets -- you know, i think they will punish scotland enormously for this. we shouldn't gloat about this. we should say why do we want all of this? therefore i don't think it will cause investment uncertainty. i think carney is playing it very well. i think he is building into the market anticipation as this is what is going o happen. he has afield the heart of scotland and glossed over all the issues of business and you and i and what we comment on. he has glossdz over it. for instance, alastair darling
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and ing -- the institute the support. carney yesterday said if you're not going to have the vote to have central bank, you have to have a lot of money on deposit. that means you have to have some surpluses which is precisely salmond is saying won't happen. i think the remaining u.k. will weather this storm. it won't be nice and they don't want it but they will weather the storm. i think scots land will become a backwater and that is a shame. >> look forward, you can't help but think about what happens with the relationship and the e.u. you can't help but expend the arguments. we talked a little bit about how business seems to be more proactive. how business needs to get involved earlier. talk to me a little bit about what yesterday meant. yesterday i felt was a really big day. >> and me. it is interesting. it has sort of been glossed over
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and lost in the noise over the referendum in scotland, but it is a huge day. they appointed a brit in charge of basically running the financial industry to have e.u.. >> it doesn't get better than that. >> it can't get better than that and also they have also made him, lord hill, responsible to two nonfrenchmen. not two as southern european. the fin resigns on the basis of i want to do this job and build n e-u. that will endure. this is a very important point. if brussels started dealing with the luxury car industry on its own, germany would have ming to -- something to say. the brits would be on the sidelines of it and at last, i think juncker, for all of his
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federalist integration, i think he has acknowledged this, which is the power of london. it is so enormous. the e.u. doesn't want to be without it. >> it shows there is a the union, within within europe that wants britain to stay. the phone is ringing. are we going to answer it? do you think westminster will change as a result of h? >> yes. yesterday at lunchtime, i had wluverage the c.e.o., german c.e.o.. he is in london -- lunch with the german c.e.o. he is in london visiting. he said i want britain to stay in but i want to use britain to get a reformed e.u. for germany. i thought that was a clever thing to do. he is saying i don't want to use you but i believe you're right trying to reform the european union that is a better
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competitive globalized place. britain is the whipping boy for this. germany and other countries will benefit. he is saying don't leave but carry on with your foot on the pedal to try and get reform. i completely agree with you. what does wake up mean? it doesn't mean thank you, mr. juncker for giving us lord hill. it does mean we have for the good of europe, that we have got to reform this place. generation, dren's they will condemn us if we don't. >> the former u.k. trade minister. coming up next, we're going to find out how one green company is growing market demand and sourcing raw materials in a stable way. that up next. ♪
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>> welcome back, folks. you're watching "the pulse". how can the growing green sector expand in a sustainable way? that is the big question everybody is trying to ask the moment. the c.e.o. joins us now. you guys just secured a very large site in canada full of
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trees. now what do you do? >> first of all, it is not a lease. we actually entered into the first joint venture relationship f its kind ever in canada. east f their groups prairie and petal prairie settlements. it has never been done. they would normally have been exploited to some degree and not received full benefit for their assets. we're a full structure that allows them participation in the deal. we're looking at now taking the evaluation of the asset that we jointly now manage and we're scussing with the timberland nvestment management systems who roll sbhune timberland assets. they don't buy the land.
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they buy the timber rights on that land. >> how long is this? >> 97 years. we were able to issue the license to them. >> so -- just talk me through why -- the structure is important. how you have done the structure is fascinating. never been done before. just give me a sensor the scale of what we're talking about here. >> ok. >> if i think about birmingham or new castle. give me an idea what this does. >> the land area, it is 1 and a half times getter than london. it is a lot of trees. we think it is over 40 cubic meerts of standing timber right now. to give you an idea of that, the european business is about 40 feeters. you'll get an idea what it might
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be worth commercially over a period of time. you can't cut it all in one day. we would not allow it. we're keen on sustainability. there are very strict rules we put in place with our partners so the environment is protected. this is very, very important. >> you bring up the european business. you have an operation -- you buy in the ukraine. you make m.d.f. in turkey. >> no. the largest exporter in the mediterranean and black sea region now. it is delivered to our port facilities and we process it into woodchip and send it to customers. >> in terms of how the operation has been affected by what has been happening in the country? >> increased margins. volumes have increased. most people have said we're
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going to come back when we know what's happening. >> and what has it been like to do business? how much more tricky has it been? what is your expectation of dealing with the government in the future? what do you expect that business to be doing in a year's time? is in six months? >> we're growing at the moment. we are hoping to increase by 25% by next year over what we have today. we're dealing with the local forestries. a lot of people cutting a lot of timber and this is normally waste timber. we take all of this from them and we probably are secondary employment for our company. that was 1,200 people. we'll see that growing over time. so long as there is no further
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degradeation of the situation politically in terms of our port being there and available to us. >> pretty crucial. richard, nice to see you. joining us, the c.e.o. of active energy. up next, the second hour of "the pulse." ♪
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>> quitting scotland. rbs and lloyds will relocate to london if the scots vote for independence. we will not be the lender of last resort. mark carney warns the price will be high if scotland goes it alone. a campaignpoll shows has failed to gain ground. we will bring you the headlines from the news conference later this hour. good morning to our viewers in
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europe, good evening to those in asia and a warm welcome to those waking up in the united states. from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. we are going to go straight to our top stories. rbs is warning it will move its headquarters to england if the scots vote for independence. that is a setback for salmond. it shows him stagnating in terms of where we stand on the vote. anna edwards joins us for more on what we can expect. also, banking sector news. .his is big news in some ways, unexpected news. if you think about what we heard from carney yesterday, it seems logical. we have heard over the last 24 hours that lloyd's have plans to move their headquarters south of the border. we heard from rbs and from clydesdale bank, saying they see uncertainty to do with these
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though. they have plans to move their headquarters south of the border if there is a yes vote next thursday. i will be talking about the impact this could have on the credit rating, worried about the cost of borrowing. clydesdale bank also saying they plan to register as an english company. they are owned by national australia bank. they are big banking institutions in scotland but they are the three banks licensed by the bank of england to print notes in scotland. if you think about what mark carney was saying when he was talking about the size of the financial services industry in scotland, the types of reserves a government would have to have if it wanted to be able to backstop the financial services sector, he was telling the scots they would need a bigger deal than what they currently have. when you factor in that the u.k. lloyd'snt owns part of
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and rbs, no surprise that they had these contingency plans in place. >> we have seen a brief rise in the pound the last night. it seems to suggest that maybe the momentum we saw in the poll is not represented elsewhere. a little more static than we first thought. another poll, every day we seem to get more polls. there will be more polls. latest one, 53% for the nose and 47% for the yes. another poll shows the yes campaign closing down the gap with no or overtaking me know campaign to some degree. there has been no change in the poll in terms of the gap between
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the two. walk through what we're .oing to get british business seems to have woken up. we see the huge flurry of activity. ofwe think that flurry activity is maintained? can it be maintained for the next seven days? >> they are back from their love -- trying toton give positive messages about why the union is better off left together. we heard yesterday, bp and shell warning that north sea oral -- oil reserves are less. not all business is getting involved here. leave it to the scots
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to decide and they will be there to do their business as usual. describes --land decides. you are talking about what this means for the u.k.. we don't know what it means forced collin. >> a press conference in barcelona. we will follow that carefully. thank you very much. anna edwards. two other businesses and i put the same question to them. how did we end up in a situation where a week before the vote, business has woken up to the risk that it faces. >> we have always taken the view that this is a matter for the scottish motor. what is frustrating in this
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business is there is no economic case that has been made for independence. it is a one-way street to economic uncertainty. given that message has not gone the cross, we think it is that the scottish voter has the evidence in front of them before they make what is there decision. >> why are we doing this now? why didn't we do this three , six months ago? >> the economic case for independence has not been made. companies have been careful. they do not want to lecture the voter. they do not want to patronize their workforce. it has been challenging to put their head above the power fix.
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my organization represents businesses in scotland that employ a quarter of the workforce. the cbi has a responsibility to speak to the workers about what it means for their jobs and what it means to scottish consumers and what it means to the scottish economy. same thingu do the euwe were to face an referendum? >> what does it mean for the workers? what does that mean for investment and jobs. that is an issue to be decided. i speak when i have a mandate. scottishmandate from entrepreneurs. if i had a mandate from u.k. entrepreneurs, i would make the same case. >> are there lessons to be learned? >> politicians have lessons to learn. when you have a referendum, you are in a different situation to a general election. people vote with their heart center had at the same time.
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that is their democratic right. sometimes the economic arguments do not get across when people are thinking about their destinies. that is their prerogative. as long as they know what entrepreneurs think about the economic raw specs. i think business will always review the situation. have become more vocal because we do not think the economic messages have been heard. that is a shift. >> there are no responsibilities that lie with business because it is the democratic right of these people to vote chev are way they want. >> absolutely. i am very clear. in a democracy, the voter makes the decision. >> they are important and they are a stakeholder in the society in which we operate.
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they are a big stakeholder. >> speaking for half a million employed workers' businesses, i am employed to say what those businesses think. the economic case for independence has not been made. i have been saying it all year. >> can i change gears? i want to talk about the eu and i want to get your take on the appointment of lord hill's to -- thevated position more elevated position than we were anticipating. has beenunity presented. how do you think british business should respond? excitingan appointment. thecritical issue is how city of london, which is europ'' and to capital, coexists with two-way trade.
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we need a positive british contribution of european business. byt is best achieved commissioner financial services who puts the interest of the city as a funder for businesses all over europe top of his list of priorities. should they change views in westminster about the possibility of a different relationship with the eu? that they wantks to reform the eu. to jerryn opportunity that. i was in düsseldorf on friday. they want to reform the eu and want britain to be part of that reform agenda. we have a common interest in keeping britain in the eu, but not in the eu of today, not the
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status quo eu. what is good for jobs in britain is good for jobs in spain. it is about a better you for the bute of the european union, britain needs to be at the heart of that debate. >> iq for coming to cs. what else is on our radar? -- has tightened his grip by grabbing the top job at farah re: -- ferrari. we caught up with the former ferrari chairman in an exclusive interview. >> i have been here 23 years. increased in unbelievable ways. we will present, at the end of the year, historic record in terms of revenue. the pleased to leave
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company in this condition. this is the best company in the world. the 30th anniversary of the -- the 13th anniversary of the 9/11 attack in new york. the memorial begins in a few hours. we are following the oscar pistorius trial. the high court judge has started to read her verdict for the athlete. he is charged with the murder of his girlfriend, reeva steenkamp. media coverage of the trial did affect testimony. coming up, gas prom under pressure. they see profits dropped 41% details after the break. ♪
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>> welcome back. rush' biggest company under pressure. $.41s from has posted a drop in profits. hans nichols has the details. what happened? currency.affected by they were affected by lack of payment from ukraine. mess. the estimate was for a 39% decline. of $6till have profits
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billion. this is still a company that can print money, if not print it, extracted from the ground and ship it. their sales are to europe. they expect that to be down 10% for the year, there is no sign of panic in the market. all of this is in the context of a situation in ukraine yesterday. sloat supplies to poland. their was forced to slow shipment to ukraine. gazprom has not been clear on why they did this. they are slowing flows to poland. that means less revenue. poland cannot ship it on ukraine. close to have any -- $5 billion on what ukraine owes gazprom. >> it is the first of what is
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likely to be many maneuvers by the russians to increase the pressure on the ukrainians and western europe. and you can coming feel the pressure is going to be up. >> if you or i were hydraulic engineers, we could make a variety of puns of natural gas flows and reverse flows. are forcing other countries, they are cutting and slowing supplies so they cannot ship to ukraine. we will have negotiations that will start again later this eu, ukraine, the and gazprom, on how to get the bag bill paid -- the back bill paid. it is hard to determine what is
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a jacked up price when you have such political tension. >> i am sure there is a joke around "jacked up price." i will leave it alone, as you said, we are probably not qualified to make those jokes. president obama making a relentless campaign to destroy militants in iraq and syria. gotkine has more. how much of the detail are we hoping for -- how much of the detail we were hoping for did we get? >> we got it from the president's administration officials. notstrategy is simple, necessarily new. going after america's enemies, wherever they may be. with the islamic state being at , that isf the enemies according to president barack
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obama, and it makes it a target. is a terrorist organization and it has no vision other than the slaughter of all who stand in its way. our objective is clear. we will do great and ultimately astroy isil through counterterrorism strategy. the specifics that we got on the sidelines, there seems to be one plan to get the fetid syrian -- get groupssyrian rebel inside syria and train them to help them do battle on the islamic front. we have the potential for airstrikes inside of syria, which is something the u.s. has not carried out. it has carried out 150 airstrikes against islamic states so far.
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perhaps there will be thrashing out of the details of how the training council works. >> carey is on the ground, trying to sort out support for this. what about closer to home? the administration is pushing the fact that they have bipartisan support in congress and according to opinion polls, they seem to have the support of the majority of americans supporting airstrikes on islamic state. i think the main reason why obama still has the support right now is because he has pledged to ensure there are no u.s. boots on the ground. toi want the american people understand how this effort will be different from the wars in iraq and afghanistan. it will not involve american combat troops fighting on foreign soil. question,, unanswered aside from the specifics of how the training council works, what
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happens with the civil war in syria? the u.s. wanted to topple bashar al-assad about a year or so ago. u.s. support rebels in their continued fight against bashar al-assad? we do not know at this stage. >> thank you very much, elliott gotkine. still to come, the latest poll shows salmond's campaign failing to gain ground. we will bring you the news conference that will start in the next 20 minutes with alex salmond. that is coming up. ♪
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>> good morning. welcome back. we are live on bloomberg tv, streaming on your tablets. what's odd about the subject everyone is talking about -- the pound. r carney talking about yesterday. lloyd's saying they will have to ondomicile if scotland vote independence. we have been talking about polls that have come out overnight. it shows a more static situation. it does not have the momentum for the yes campaign that other
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polls have had. .e are trading at 1.6235 0.80% up . you can expect some decent activity over the next week or so. let's move on. let's talk about something else. let's get company news. first-half earnings. a fashion retailer sees third-quarter sales growth at 10%. to buy backe chance shares if the price falls below a certain limit. -- raised its inner and dividend. the survival plan will not be felt until later this year. sales fell more than 7% in the first half, which is worse than analysts anticipated. is presenting its --
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today. the reception is fairly good. >> let's talk about hotshots. 6000 fans turning out for some of the toughest tricks you can do on a bicycle. a 23-year-old took gold, securing his position as the world's number one. most people base jump off of tall buildings or cliffs, it could be an antenna, anything. extreme motocross rider decided to combine the two and parachute out of his epic bike jump. he landed safely, but his bike
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did not end up in quite such a safe space. totally makes it easier landing in water as well. see you in a moment. ♪ .
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>> welcome back to "the pulse." i am guy johnson. the u.s. will rely a middle east allies to escalate the offensive against islamic state extremist. in his speech yesterday, president barack obama said the united states would be joined by broad coalition of partners for a steady, really unless effort. he also said he is prepared to strike on both sides of the iraqi-syria border. >> i have made it clear we will
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hunt down terrorists who threaten our country wherever they are. that means i will not hesitate to take action against isil in syria as well as iraq. this is a core principle of my presidency. if you threaten america, you will find no safe haven. is the 13th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks in new york and the pentagon in the state of virginia. an annual memorial begins in a few hours with the names of 3000 victims will be read at that ceremony. the bank of england governor says scotland mainly reserves 450 billion pounds to try to continue using sterling without a full currency unit. currently, there's a short-term plan as the scots choose to and their union with england. have been doing contingency planning. we have contingency plans. we would obviously implement
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them, if at all required, in the short-term to support financial stability. minister willh begin a news conference shortly and we will bring you that live. i have to set this point in time, they haven't even turned the lights on. opportunity ton see what is happening in the markets. these are your equity markets and europe. just an positive territory. scotland dominating the headlines. don't read too much into that move down here in london. one of the stocks on the move higher, up by 2.65%. those with exposure to scotland also rising. we had a new poll. different answer. this time the has the edge. camp has thethe no edge. a rally.
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they won a referendum on independence. the aim is in november. the government in madrid has not sanctioned that vote. what would independence mean for the spanish government? could they absorb that that -- debt? lower, down by six basis points. two point 21%. the yield on the spanish 10 year , quite a move. sterling, 1.6252. that is how many dollars one pound buys you. a bit of a seeing is slowdown of growth coming into a weaker pound. also the scotland question weighing on sterling. that little balance here, that getting the edge. scotland is not the only thing happening in the world. this is a chance for oil. down by 12% on the brent
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contract over the year. a lot of people talking about supply risk in iraq and russia, if that eases because the amount of oil the u.s. produces. what you see is the oil price fall. ,he aea say demand growth they're cutting their forecast for this year and next. for them, this chart right here speaks to growth. minutes to go until "surveillance" in new york. tom keene, what do you have today? oil wasnk that chart on in trenton about the 12% decline in brent crude. barrel for 80 to $85 a on brent to be where we should. the president last night speaking about anything but normal events. joining us for our entire two hours, ian bremmer will be with us to look at and interpret the
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president's speech. much rain here in new york and washington. we will look at september 11. i have comments from paul krugman from september 14, 2001. we will act 13 years. >> looking forward to the show. thank you very much. one week until scotland votes on its independence. the latest poll gives than -- showing 53%ign opposed, 47% for. the sense from you guys is there's little, it is more about stagnation. was placedious poll
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just after the second debate and showed a significant move toward the yes camp. that reversed the leads darling had made. on the most recent paul, shown no further change since that point. it may have found where the yes has plateaued. >> how is the polling? within the last week of a campaign like this, how volatile would you expect the numbers to be? polls bouncing off each other. >> absolutely. because the referendum is such an unprecedented event in british politics, such a high turnout is expected as well, there is going to be so much attention focused on the polls because it is so hard to protect what the results are going to be by normal methods. a poll that showed "yes" ahead "yes"is possible putting
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ahead has been enough to galvanize some wavering voters camp because it looks a lot more real implausible that perhaps it did a couple weeks ago. >> are the demographics changing? is the geography? topline stagnation? beene demographics have pretty constant throughout, which is the main base for the , pensioners, and in "yes" more of the engineers. more of those in the 20's and 30's. at this lastook week and you look at the efforts being made, is it harder within the last week were you guys look at the numbers in the last week to get clarity or the fact
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people are finally making up their minds, this i give you more visibility? how does it work? >> the undecided voters have been shrinking got the campaign. the latest poll just had 10% undecided. week, single digits undecided. there are so few people left to be won over, in that sense, it has come to that life edge point in the campaign. it is obviously difficult for all the companies to try to jump the methodology designed does something unprecedented. looking at a president, the referendum in 1990's for independence, the polls have struggled to pick the outcome. there is showed a big surge in yes. these things can be extremely difficult to predict. >> we will live at there. river press conference coming up. thank you for stopping by and joining us. coming up, we will keep the spotlight on scotland. k.w will it impact the u.
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credit rating? that is all coming up here on "the pulse." ♪
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>> welcome back to "the pulse." shortly to be speaking and edinburgh, scottish referendum on the vote for independence.
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what affect will it have on credit ratings? let's talk about that now. we have an exclusive interview. this morning the new system made by the fact both rbs and lloyds bank are saying they would quit scotland in the event of a yes vote. that seems like a no-brainer. -- the give me a sense reason it is a no-brainer is because of the ratings issue. can you give me a sense of what the rating star he would be like post the yes vote next week? >> this is a story that has been around for sometime, so we have had it circled on the calendar and knew it was coming and had a lot of time to look at the issues. we focus more on the u.k., the remainder of the u.k. rating rather than scotland's rating. are some issues about scotland recently don't know. many is up for negotiation, discussions with the government, assuming there is a yes vote.
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when we look at the u.k. rating, there are a couple of things we've have focused on and made quite clear. the first is the financial sector and you can't would likely be larger and there would likely be some increase cross-border exposures, which is probably a credit negative in an of itself. there would be a marginal negative story on the balance of payment side as well, again, for the remainder of u.k., assuming the oil and gas exports for the u.k. are lower after this is all negotiated out. but the most important thing really is the government debt level. that is something we have focused on probably more than anything else. the remaining u.k. government debt level would increase by almost 10 percentage points of gdp, we think. so putting all that together, really, this story would be a marginally negative one for the remaining u.k. rating, and it is something we would probably look at right away.
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although, obviously, we would not have answers to all the questions on the day after, assuming there is a yes. clear, you raise a number of points in the answer. i want to segment them a little bit. you at this point in time find yourself in a situation where it would be incredibly hard to generate a realistic rating for scotland. i only ask that because i think it is that lack of information, that ability for a company, a company like yours, to be up to generate a rating, that really is making a big difference to copies like rbs and lloyds bank. it is the lack of clarity that you would be up to have to provide a rating which means we would have quite a long period of time before we would be able to determine what the risk associated with the new scotland is. >> yes, that's right. we know now roughly what per capita income levels would be. aboutfundamental question the exchange rate is probably the biggest uncertainty that we
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don't know. we don't know with the exchange rate regime would be. we have not had an opportunity to speak to a government in scotland. part of the review process, having a relationship with government so we understand policy priorities, what their budget intentions are, etc. we have not had any of those discussions, obviously, either. there are a number of uncertainties that are quite phenomenal to the rating. potential rating for scotland. that is why we have focused more on the rating we have, which is the u.k. rating and what we think we know about what would happen to some of those key issues that i mentioned earlier. >> is there any precedents that you can think of where the ratings companies that work in this kind of example? >> it is quite unusual for a country -- for one country to become two. there are very many presidents that we have looked at. even if there were, we still come back to these fundamental
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issues of what is the exchange rate going to look like? if two countries split earlier and not have a good exchange regime, may not be a good guide for scotland. there aren't very many precen dents, if any. at the end of your first answer, you talked about the fact were probably be but to bump inphone and -- 10% the remainder of the u.k. debt way it would have to carry. scotland is not going to pick up anything. talks no, not really. we're assuming as the u.k. government has said, it remains the obligor for u.k. government debt. that goes entirely on the book's the remaining u.k. government. the question is, do they get an iou from scotland? remainingy, if the
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u.k. gdp diminishes because scotland is to longer part of the union, then where looking at a smaller gdp number. the debt level stays the same, but the gdp number will be smaller. as it doesists, today, but scotland picks up its share of the debt to be negotiated and what exactly what the remaining u.k. government has a we don't know. likely, it will be a claim on the scottish government, the new scottish government. that is a credit risk of sorts for that remainder u.k. government. >> you said you would probably start to work quickly on what the rest of the u.k. would look like. how long do you think that process would take for you had clarity? weon some of these issues, would be looking at it for a little while. i think in terms of the rating itself, we would be looking to have a very quick look -- a matter of days, not weeks or months -- and terms of having a
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very quick look at u.k. rating and what we know on day one after the potential yes vote. where the rating actually goes will depend very much on some of these issues that need to be negotiated. that is not going to be a matter of days. that will take a little bit longer. as i said at the outset, these issues are all negative. marginally negative in terms of the balance of payments and the financial sector probably, but definitely the debt to gdp ratio , debt increase is a negative. the u.k. already has a relatively high debt hurting -- arden. we could have a quick review the day after or a couple of days after, but really determining where this rating does the longer-term is for a much subject to the issues we have been discussing about the negotiations that still have to come. >> james, the scottish referendum has obviously been
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paying attention to by other parts of the world. when you look more broadly, to what extent is what is happening here in u.k. significant for other countries and the possibility of breakup of other countries around europe or around the world? >> i guess the most obvious answer is, it has got to be spain. sensitive issue in spain and has been for many, many years. not assets of a there is a clear demonstration of fact if scotland votes yes then immediately the implications are that something similar would happen in spain, but it does set some sort of precedent. mostss that has been the obvious one. we don't think there are many others, certainly, not in europe. just staying within the eurozone, what are the credit qelications of full-blown from the ecb based on a kind of
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waiting of the various countries within the eurozone? have you guys done any math on this yet? >> qe in and of itself, talking about a monetary policy tool is not a fiscal operation. clearly, it would provide support to the bond market. that could be the intention. that likely would be the intention. in europe are already very low, government bond yields. the governments are benefiting now from very low bond yields. the issues that are more important from a rating perspective in europe are around government debt, issues that surround government debt. they're based on the growth rate, fiscal balance, and where the debt is to begin with. those issues don't really change a whole lot under a qe operation. that is directed at another segment of the economy providing support eventually to the private sector in terms of credit growth, but it is not going to --
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>> james, nice to see. jim smoke and my josh james maccormack joining us. we're watching the press conference in edinburgh. we will take you that in a moment. in the meantime, let me take a quick rate. -- quick lik
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>> welcome back, you are
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watching "the pulse." scotland, yes or no? salmondaiting for alex to speak. as soon as he does so, we will wait to hear what he is to say. my colleague has been following the story not just today, as we built up for this vote. hours,s of the last 24 the previous 24 hours felt like and it. the last 24 hours situation seems to have calmed down a little bit. >> do you pin that all on one hole -- poll? the most recent polar received was yesterday, late into the afternoon and early evening. that did put the "no escrow camp ahead by six percentage points. >> but it is still pretty wide. >> there is room for error.
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caution is being urged. 3.1 percentage point margin for air should be built in here they say. nothing is couple. these things still look very close. listening to our conversation earlier on, i thought it was interesting the way he was saying the timing of this poll, taking on the fifth to the ninth of september and that matters because at the beginning of september and then the seventh, we had the release of those two polls that suggested the yes campaign was doing well and gaining ground, momentum was with them. survey shall saying perhaps as a result of that, that galvanized any "no" support that have been showing. >> bouncing off each other. >> exactly. it is reading and some people's sentiments, perhaps people firming up their views as a result of polling. if you're voting in one way because you wanted to protest about something, perhaps your changed. overnight, we heard from
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lloyds and rbs talking about the fact they would be the headquarters for london. kindning to fitch, you can of understand why. you get the sense it will take a very long time to understand the credit implications in the cost of money for these institutions would be very uncertain. >> yes. rbs is saying that exactly. one of the things they refer to as the impact on their credit the borrowing costs. they don't know with the credit rating would look like from scotland and then for scottish banks. and fitch doesn't know, either. you are asking, decently not have enough information to form a rating? there is not a government they're in charge from a sovereign perspective, so there's no one to go and have conversation with about their attitude to debt whether spending plans or anything like that. they don't know what currency is going to be used in scotland. all of those things are huge unknowns. >> we're going to carry on his conversation in the moment i
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must say goodbye to our viewers in the united states. we will he be here on "the pulse." time, we willes be taken a press conference live in scotland. in the meantime, i will hand you over to tom keene. ♪
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>> it will not be a war, it will not affect for afghanistan. the president is pathetic, relentless effort to take out
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isil. retirees are doing better than good. 13 years on, perspective on this september 11 from ian bremmer. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" at life of new york, it is 311. i am tom keene with scarlet fu and adam johnson. an overnight brief the president's speech front and center, here's adam johnson. for extending stay up and watch it? >> and i did not. but i did. i figured i could sleep him effective. adamant thanore previous speeches. overnight from here's what else happened. evidently global economy slowing down. saudi exports dropped to a 2011 low. the international energy agency cut its global oil demand forecast. london home prices


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