tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 24, 2014 6:00am-8:01am EST
coal. russia, while they run out of egrees of freedom, we consider vladimir putin's politics. where is my amazon prime package? good morning. this is sursur. we're live from new york this christmas eve. i'm tom keene. joining me, he'll be shopping 10 minutes before me, brendan greeley. leslie picker with us in for scarlet fu, who's on a panic right now. let's get to our top headline. >> you got me to put on a tie. >> you look so christmasy. >> i will never go bow, tom. the dow, 18,000 and counting. the dow continued its remarkable surge yesterday, spurred by a blockbuster report on g.d.p. data shows the u.s. economy grew the most in the third quarter since 2003. the index climbed more than 5.5% over the past five days with the biggest rally since 2011. another fatal police shooting
near st. louis, missouri. a man was shot killed outside a gas station after an officer conducting a "routine business check" believed he was threatened with a handgun. police say an investigation is underway and that the dead man's handgun was recovered at the scene. bierk leave is located about two miles from the town of ferguson. that's where the august shooting death of michael brown caused weeks of protest and sometimes violence and unrest. former president george h.w. bush has been hospitalized in houston. the 90-year-old bush was tan by ambulance and admitted as a precaution after experiencing shortness of breath. that according to a statement from his office. bush is the oldest living former u.s. president, born about 3 1/2 months before jimmy carter in 1924. >> and moving on, sony, they do an about-face. the company will release the interview in about 300 theaters tomorrow, christmas day. the move reverses an earlier decision not to show the film amid threats of violence.
the seth rowingen-directed comedy is about a fictional plot to kill the north korean leader. last week president obama said the studio's capitulation to cyberterrorists who act, sony's computer system would hinder freedom of expression. a white house spokesman says the move lets people make their own decisions about the film and that the president welcomed the outcome. finally, u.p.s. and fedex, they capped their air express deliveries in recent days, according to "the wall street journal." the companies made the move in response to a joy norms surge in packages that put some retailers past drrgd-upon limits. they were both aiming to avoid a repeat of last year when this two million express packages didn't arrive in time. i found this to be the case. >> everyone procrastinates, tom. >> but two day is five day now. >> how spoiled are we that we've gotten used to two days?
>> why do they call two day? i don't get the game. >> to anger you. >> they do. it's a scandal. like our data check. what a sobering moment. we continue to drive higher this morning. the 10-year yield, 2.26%. of course, i'm watching the two-year. the euro weaker, that it is a ig theme in the last 48 hours. on to the next screen. the v.i.x., 14.8. hat would be a 12, or even 11. a little more angst in the market even with the dow, brent up about 60, and gold grinds ever lower. here's the back story to get us ready for next year. draghi-monics? >> we're treating europe still
like it's one currency zone. it is accidentally, but the struggle you see here is that germany's currency, if it had one, really needs to rise elsewhere in the yours. so what we're talking about is one struggling story at about three different kinds of economies. >> it was mention from the citigroup two weeks ago or so, he looked at the number of years for euro parity. let's get started on this christmas eve. again, markets closing about 1:00 p.m. we will begin our christmas shopping celebration is in the air, a killer third quarter economy. but the back drop this year is the most interesting set of worries from the new mediocre to iran to ukraine. helena kroft is from r.b.c. capital markets. if there's one word here, maybe a theme for this christmas eve, it is the word for next year, diversions, we consider a conversation on america against everybody else.
is it really just america doing well and everybody else struggling? >> well, this is america doing well, and they're thinking about countries doing extremely poorly next year. and so if we think that oil prices could potentially go lower in q-1 with the big gulf state, look, we don't care if prices go to 20, i think you're going to talk about what happens to russia next year, what happens to venezuela. are these countries going to default? >> you were an outliar call, looking for same geopolitical, $100 a barrel. how did we get here? i love talking to somebody who collegially was off the mark, gaming $40 oil. >> i tell you, i left the market when it was 115. surprising i came back, and it was like what happened? i look at the 115 run-up, we were in a situation where we had three million barrels off the market, isis on a tear in iraq, high geopolitical risk,
over en demand was softer the summer, and some producers pushed a lot on the market. what really changed things is the saudis saying there's no floor. there was a presumption that opec would come in there and halt the price watch. >> so saudi just said enough? >> they said we're not going to do anything. >> what a gift -- we need to speak on christmas eve to burt, who has a family we are damage retail. it's like "the christmas story." it's like we parachuted in to cleveland, ohio. we're honored to have you here on christmas eve. how much of a gift did they give you with $40 oil? >> gave a great gift, but i also got back from cash wise in north dakota, so the workers are still there. but for consumers, disposable income up 2.9% during the last 12 months. you're seeing retail spending
surge. as strong as the period is, we expect it to be up. it will be even stronger as we go into the first half of next year. brendan, jump in here. are you starting shopping at 1050? >> i bought some things yesterday. on the 23rd, i bought some things. yes, i even ordered some things i'm going to pick up today. here's what i want to talk about, your travel itinerary reads like just basically, you make stops wherever there's oil roduction. >> they're not saying they're worried, but they have to be worried. if you looked at the dubai, biggest mall in the world, twice the factor of mall of america, the customer counts were there when oil started dropping, but they were all browsing, weren't buying. if you look at the equity of the shopping mall owners, it's been cut by 40% to 50%. we're already seeing a change
in traffic patterns based on a two-month history. that's amazing. when you say they're worried, you can't see this, but helena was nodding. >> that's a story people aren't focusing on in the middle east stock markets. the saudi stock market basically tanked by 2 %. dubai has been down. it's hurting the private sector. >> let me ask a cheeky question. we don't really think of looking at those stock markets, because we don't think of those economies with anything to invest in other than oil. >> that's been one of the struggles of these middle east countries. they understand, particularly saudi arabia, that they need to get away from having 90% of government revenue. but in the case of saudi, it hasn't worked. the emirates is a bit of a different story, but saudi remains hooked on oil. >> can i interrupt? sometimes a headline comes across the bloomberg that says it all. i just lost it.
there it is. putin says russia will remain part of global civilization. > that's the headline. >> putin says russia will remain part of global civilization. how alone is vladimir putin this christmas eve? >> i said he was in love in his last tv conference, so i don't think he's alone. i think this is something to watch over this year, because we're almost sort of dancing on his grave. one of the things about russia is they're leading their reserves, but he remains not entirely popular at home much his approval ratings are still in the 80's. he's not isolated at home. invading eastern ukraine made him popular. >> how important is the russian willingness to endure actual real austerity? >> well, this is going to be the question. right now, there's nobody in
the streets yet. the thing is the russians have gone through very tough economic times in the past. can they bear down? he was seen as the guy who really brought order to a chaotic system, so he does have a well spring of support. but if you get into food shortages, that's a risk for him. >> despite all the geopolitical risks that we're seeing out there, the dow still reached 18,000 yesterday. do you remember the book dow 36,000? that's by james and kevin. this was published in 1999. a lot of people here in the u.s. are saying that we're starting to see some reflexions of 1999. is that playing a part in consumer spending? >> it's playing a part, but the fi furcation is that retail will continue to do well overall. but the worry, as tom referenced earlier, is for the shopping mall and shopping owner retailers. you see serious, kmarts, key
tenants either not renew leases or contract or potentially collapse. you'll see a lot of the b and c-rated malls start to go by the wayside as they did in 2007 and 2008. >> burt with us on this christmas eve. we'll continue the discussion in our next hour. robert kaplan will join from us harvard business school on leadership and governance. we'll even bring that across to international relations. stay with us. ♪
into the lab. >> amazon prime now offers a christmas holy grail, leave your shopping until the thth, but still order online, have it arrive in an hour. we are excited. we are suspicious. julie hyman joins us. you are our senior delivery correspondent, julie? >> yes. >> are we going to order something? >> that's the special title just for today. there are a couple of caveats, it's only available in a handful of zip codes in new york city, in manhattan. luckily we are in one of those zip codes. also, you have to be an amazon prime sb scriber already. you have to be the $99 a year subscriber and put the app on your phone or another device. you can't do it over your laptop. now, without further ado, i'm actually going to order something. i thought i would do some last-minute shopping for you three. am -- i have already placed items in my cart, only mr. keene still needs some
shopping. this is the home page. it says hello, julie. and they have not just gifts, but they have things like paper towels, for example, that you an order in an hour. so when i search for a bow tie on here, the only kind, sadly, is bow tie pasta that you can get for mr. keene, which i'm not sure that he wants. we'll take that out of the cart. i thought you might want some music. there is a lot of c.d.'s if you still have a method to play c.d.'s. >> oh, yeah. i don't know if they can do alcohol. i don't know. i'm doubting alcohol is vailable on this system. carpenters christmas, how about
that? >> great. >> there we go. >> so we've added all of these items to our cart, and they get the various things for you guys, and we'll see if indeed it makes it here in an hour. >> they promise an hour? >> you do have to pay for it. two-hour delivery is actually free, but one-hour delivery is $7.99. they also recommend, in this case, they're recommending a $6 tip. >> how is this getting sneer is it being messengered? >> yes, i'm not sure if it will be here by car, by bike, by person running from 34th street, because this is from 34th street. there was a lot of hubbub when amazon leased these offices on 34th street, is there going to be a retail location. at least for now, no, there's not a retail location. they're using it as offices. all of one of the things we keep learning, burt, is the importance of actually having a eal warehouse in a real place.
noshed to get us within the our. >> near the newark airport, so they can get stuff flown in. >> there's a building at newark airport, which makes all this happen. >> it's one of the best facilities anywhere in the east coast. nobody would buy it. amazon got it for 15 cents on the dollar. >> julie, what have you learned this holiday season? what is the distinctive feature you see in retail this holiday season versus a year ago or even five years ago? >> what i would say is that even though this holiday season is going to be better than last, i think that's a certain taste, we don't know by how much, but it's going to be better. it's not a rising tide by any means. there are really going to be
some winners and some losers. i think we know some of the losers we've been talking about them for months, radio shack, for example. and there are also going to be some winners, companies executing better, or some that are fortunate enough to happen to be in an area like athletic apparel, for example, that happens to be a strong area right now. >> well, julie is shopping for us. i assume we are all on your nice list? >> you are. you have an hour, so you better object your best behavior. >> you began to scowl at tom. that's where the scowl was pointed. that is our twitter question of the day. who is on your naughty and nice list today? tweet us. tom just wants to put janet yellen on his -- >> naughty. naughty. >> naughty list. >> naughty. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" ♪
>> we get to rip up the script and make the rules. mark andresson showing manufacturing in america -- brendan greeley, i didn't know this, it's a great twitter chart -- up to a new manufacturing chart. >> at an all-time high. i had a sense, ever since the new g.d.p. numbers were revised, there's been this end i feel like and those who the gods punish first make proud t. is time for our morning must read from the once and likely foreign minister of sweden. he is writing about territorial
laims of the north pole. he can choose several passports. in december 2007, a privately funded submarine planned a russian flag directly beneath his alleged home. two weeks ago, denmark, who has softenity over greenland, staked its own claim, also covering the north pole. >> scandal! >> there is a territorial great power, great race going on. >> i'm an adopted icelander, so i should really be involved, staking our claim, absolutely. i always bring it back to oil. this would have been something that would have been exciting last year in terms of development. who can afford this right now? >> they have a big play, because as ice caps melt and makes it easier to develop, is that why we're seeing this
timing of these claims? >> this has actually been something, this battle for the arctic, but i think now everyone is going to watch, is russia going to get in on this? >> i'm fascinated by denmark's role in this. i think climate changes have made new he will fires. sweden, when the ice caps retreated over sweden, it rose up out of the sea, literally, the spit of land is actually -- it's been rising the last 800 years, and that's enabled swede ton sort of be settled. and sweden for a time was a great pow. now we're looking at denmark that makes amazing wind turbines actually staking a claim. >> denmark, iceland used to be part of denmark. i think the surge in denmark might be what to watch. >> are you looking at space in copenhagen right now? >> not quite there yet. scandinavian countries, there's good retail, but it's not to
scale. >> it was looking at the floor of the north sea, or the floor of the ocean. how far does the continental shelf extend? is it greenland or russia's continental shelf? these are up for grabs in the international arena. >> of course, because it's how you find your treasure. think about going back, i always bring it back to iceland. think about it, their big wars were over cod with the british. it was basically what was funding their budget, basically fish. this is not something new in battling over the waters. >> bloomberg visual graphics just did a great visual of the melting ice cap. whatever anybody thinks about climate change, to your point, it is a whole new international relations when geography gets changed. it's just that simple. >> canada as well. canada held naval exercises two years ago up there and brought the international press and what came to light is it was
woefully undershipped up there. it needs a big navy, because all the sudden it has a bigger frontier. >> previously scenes too cold. >> where is santa's place, do we know? >> that is literally what we're talking about right now. canada has claimed it. denmark has claimed it. >> i think it's north of hudson. i think santa is north of hudson, basically. >> as a result, business is .ooming at the co--op this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ♪
>> breaking news on a developing story -- through the last two hours, the original headlines are that ukraine cut power to crimea. the new breaking news is it is partially restored. you can see that on the bloomberg terminal. anthony, bring it up. the headlines begin here at 5:07 or 5:08 a.m., and then we wander forward to a cacophony of headlines to say the least, d then we get to the idea of crimea bringing back the power outage that does not affect them. we're honored to have helima kroft with us. >> this just shows crimea is at the mrs i of russia. is this a power move, showing crimea that it can cut off
power when it wants to? >> also the other story is the one at the top, where essentially ukraine voting to end nonalliance stat us and potentially make a move to nato. everyone is talking about this as a frozen conflict, but at what point does it become a hot complicate? >> your study of history, is crimea russian? >> this is something where they would say it was russian, bsolutely. are we going to push russia? what is the state of ukraine basically? >> it's very dangerous to get into this game of deciding what historicing was what. estonia has been swedish, german, russia, then it was swedish again. i think what's interesting about this nato choice, the vote -- and by the way, overmajority of the parliament voted in favor of can sthelling status. we're also seeing within europe, western europe, we're seeing the balance of power
shift east. you have a fight between poland and germany over whether this is a good thing. >> absolutely. and this is a question for all the big nato members, the traditional ones, they don't want ukraine in. but the problem is ukraine asked for nato membership, do they have to begin negotiations, and what does that do in terms of the russian position? >> what's happening now is that you have the same thing happening within nato that you have happening within the european union, which countries like poland are raising their hands and saying we don't want to be junior members anymore. we are members. the balance of power is shifting towards us. >> give us a clinic the difference between our oil analysis and natural gas analysis when we see that ukraine cuts off power to crimea. >> this is what is so fascinating right now. a couple of weeks ago we said we see the signs of a nascent off ramp. we have this deal for russia to supply ukraine. the financing has been worked
out. ukraine can make this payment. there's been a sense that we were moving forward in negotiations with the east, and now all the sudden, in like the past week, between what's happening in terms of new sanctions being laid on russia, in terms of the nato vote potentially with the gas and the cutoff to crimea, all the sudden the prayers that we talked about could be unwound. >> it seems like the worst thing you can do to vladimir putin is make him look and feel weak. >> antagonize him. why kick the bear when he was down? people said give him an off i have branch right now, he's hurting. > here was another headline. instead, seriously, it's ukraine to continue active diplomacy over holidays. what does that mean? >> well, i'm still fascinating about what we're learning about crimea. i remember pictures from this summer, russia was not prepared to take it on as a province. they need a bridge to crimea.
there were people lined up for days at the if her friday russia to crimea. they weren't prepared. >> no, and a lot of russian experts said he would never take crimea, because if you ever wanted to influence the overall direction of ukraine politics, which you've been trying to do for years, you need to keep crimea in because it's a reliable russian voting bloc. >> who does kiev listen to, berlin and germany or washington or brussels? who's their first phone call to? >> well, that's the big question. but the white house does not want ukraine in nato either. the question is, are they talking nor poland, talking to the former soviet satellites? they're basically going to defend their claims to join nato. russian countries don't want them. >> the people who have to crack here are the russian elite, the people around vladimir putin who have a lot to lose, who have been making a lot of money. hey're buying tucks --
luxuries in moscow. do you sense a change in the buying habits of these people? >> definitely. one of the supermarket chains asked me if i could come up with a program to literally double prices every time a truck arrived to the store, because there would be goods on the shelf. you saw cartier and a number of retailers raise prices by 50% to 100%. in the last two weeks, because the dramatic decline in the currency, so the oligarches are concerned, and if they're concerned, that's pressure on putin. >> and we're back to the old soviet joke. what are you standing in line for, i don't know, but there's a line. >> and hopefully it will be bread. >> from that perspective, i think it's interesting that all of the oligarches, they do put pressure on putin, and that whole -- will they be able to make putin budge and end the pain and suffering?
>> the big question is who doesn't? after it happened, the on the i garks may have a problem with this policy, but who's putting their hand up? is his inner circle highly mill tar is particular, depraun intelligence services, or does he given to the oligarches who say you're bleeding us? that's a debate. >> is putin even the type of person who would cave to a side that says take a step back and do more diplomatic decisions. it doesn't matter hat happens. it was a model of a former soviet union, which is an easy analysis, or is it something different? as we go into next year, are we really talking about a russia asserting something moraine chent than 1930 or 1960?
>> is it just trying to hold on to what he has? is it a really -- >> you mentioned earlier, and correct me if i'm wrong, you mentioned earlier you think putin can be a fragile putin if he loses support of the people? >> one of the things i think that's interesting is people looked at why he actually started taking troops out of eastern ukraine, the ones that were on vacation there, and it apparently was because of economic sanctions. it was because he start to have rugs go home in body bags. you started to have some nacent protests of mothers saying why are my kids over there? he's not completely insensitive to public opinion. if it does turn bad, if he feels like he's facing big protests, maybe there's a course correction. i think we shouldn't be holding our breath to form a union and basically say, step back to help our interests out. >> to your earlier point, there doesn't seem to be any apparent
doctrine of containment from nato to try to keep putin somewhat under control. >> this from the large russian bank. they say they are not considering aiding failing banks. do you have any confidence they can diversify? >> virtually zero. other than agriculture, not much beyond that. >> ok. >> and alcohol, yes. >> coming up, waiting patiently for someone to knock on your door and sing to you this christmas? you may be waiting a long time. where have the carolers gone? it's coming up. ♪
>> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," i'm tom keene. leslie picker in with us, and brendan greeley with us. it's time for our single best chart. there it is, it's comfy. brendan, it's comfy, like a christmas sweater. do you know i have no ugly christmas sweaters? >> it's ok, because you don't
need to. i think we've reached peak skinny tie. you can just avoid it altogether. peer research asked adults what they planned to do, and then what they did as kids. we are less likely to send cards. thank you, facebook. and 16% of americans go aroling. >> i'm tone deaf, but my niece is singing at the cathedral. >> people still buy gifts for friends or family, but even fewer put up a christmas tree. >> tom, wait, you finally got your christmas tree up. >> i went back to a real christmas tree two years ago. i hate the fake ones, never got it. and i get them out of oregon. they come in a box. it's fabulous. green valley christmas. >> i'm literally allergic to pine needles. >> are you really? >> yes. no, we have a christmas tree. die it because i believe in the
real christmas tree. i just suffer. i suffer for my family, thank you very much. >> bring the chart up again. look at all the things we used to do, even buying presents. it's reliable holiday traditions, do they have to invent new ones? >> they'll invent new ones, but the better leaders and better merchants will always respond to new consumer news, new consumer activity. as tom said, bullish on macy's, that's why macy's always wins. wall smart going the wrong way. >> macy's invented its own holiday tradition t. belongs to macy's. that's amazing, of course of the >> when you look at the mix of merchandising, and that's what you do best, the merchandising mix. if i walk on macy's now versus macy's five years ago, what's the difference in the mix of product that they've been doing? >> you'll see macy's own
brands, better color patterns, broader asort -- assortment of apparel? >> more upscale? >> more upscale, but better brands. >> ok, let's talk about something important. >> you should go with the smallest. you talk about product differentiation. there's four sizes. it costs like $3 to make, right? it was a utility. hermes at thing is madison and 63rd before 10:20 when the store is bombed with european and asian tourists, and with the scarf, buy the bigger scarf, because the prices will increase? >> wait, 10:20 is when they
show up because they get the continental breakfast first? >> people should shop on broad street, the wall street location. >> even better. >> i get to see coming in from the subway, how the windows change with the seasons. does that stuff matter? >> it matters, but with bloomingdale's, the one soft spot is a big part of their merchandising statement is ralph lauren. you used to have better merchandise. higby's in cleveland, marshall field's in chicago, and that really was a destination. >> why is theberg dorf brilliance of those windows not in more malls? is it just expense? >> it's expense, but it's also the lack of talent. >> i totally agree. well, i was going to say, if you're in new york city, barney's wins the trophy this year.
they went in, it's amazing. >> from your family history in this business, this is really the history of those windows, the history of retail. glass and light are what enable these massive beautiful displays. you know, one of the things we flare retailers all the time is that you need to create a sense of wonder. is that just whistling past the graveyard? is it all about economics? >> amazon is all about wonder. >> amazon's wonder, but people love to bring the kids and all three generations of the family to see the windows for the wonder, and that's what ultimately wins for the holidays. that simulates sales for the new year. >> do you realize only and you i even have a clue what the sears roebuck catalogue is? >> do you know there are books in which you can read about things that happened before you were born. did you know that? >> had sears been better managed, sears.com would be what amazon is today. >> that's true. ok, let's go to tom. >> all right,, number three, november 12. just so you know, we're doing
photos of the year. eric, our "bloomberg surveillance" photo editor, has looked over the best photos of 2014. this is november 12. that is a scaffolding on one world trade center. two window washers were left hanging 69 floors above the ground at one world trade center. they were stuck for an hour and a half. they had to use the diamond saw to cut through glass, they were fully rescued. this is the tallest building, 776 feet tall. >> next photo. >> number two photo. you know what this is. runners at the start of the new york city marathon, 50,000 runners participated. this year wilson of kenya won the men's division. >> did you do this? >> i mean, i have run a marathon. >> i have not. it almost took me twice as much time. >> i would qualify for boston if i were 70.
i've looked it up. our number one photo, number 22, this one is just for tom. pictures of sun taken bies in a using their new telescope array, as we all know, that is also known as the new star. the telescope is designed to take x-ray photos of black holes, but focus on the sun instead during an experiment. that's what we're looking at right now. >> videos on facebook and you just stare in disbelief. >> we're not completely sure. this is your childhood, tom. >> it's childhood, jaw dropping, absolutely jaw dropping to see what they're doing. it has been an amazing year for aerospace with the mars probe and orion and all that. you look at these videos on facebook, these absolutely unreal. what do we got for twitter? >> i don't know whether it's
>> good morning, everyone. in our next hour, robert kaplan on activist investing. robert kaplan on leadership and governance lessons. an eventful morning in russia. we welcome enthuse christmas eve, "bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom keene. market closing at 1:00 p.m. leslie picker with us in for scarlet fu. brendan greeley has our top headlines. >> the uber c.e.o. indicted in south korea. along with the korean unit were charged for allegedly flouting a local transportation law that tributes rental cars from operating as cabs. officials in a chinese city say they will strike harder at those who operate illegal transportation services using
car booking software such as uber. the president of tack at asteps down effective today. he's leaving his post at the troubled air bag manufacturer. he'll be replaced by the chairman, who also is the c.e.o. of the tokyo company. takata's air bags have been linked to five deaths and triggered the recall of more than 20 million vehicles globally. in tokyo, shinzo abe wins another term as japan's prime minister. he won 328 votes out of the 470 cast by law makers in a special session. lower house. the victory by the ruling liberal democrats gives abe a renewed mandate to try to revive a stagnant economy. japan's economy fell into recession last year following a sales tax hike. those are your top headlines. >> showing a bit of abe-nomics through the end of the year. is in his blood, like the hibgy's of cleveland, singing in the classic "a christmas
story." >> merry christmas. o, ho, ho. >> there it is, one of the great seasons in the movie. burt is steeped in generations of midwest merchandising. retail sales founded there, a boy seeing a red ryder b.b. gun in a department store window, that was maybe the late 1940's, it is gone. he'll probably go to good old his way to amazon. this christmas, burt on the future of the american institution known as the department stores. we are completely wrong in new york city, because we look at sax, bergdorf, there's a whole other world out there. can it survive? >> it can, but it's interesting that gallery lafayette is struggling in france and throughout europe. the german department stores have really gone by the wayside, despite the tremendous economy. but in japan and asia, they're still doing well. harvey nichols, john lewis, and
bloomingdale's and sax doing very well. >> is it all jeff bezos' fault? do we simplingly right to the mother, amazon? >> you've got great department stores, where you have great leaders. where you have real estate people starting with bob campo to the jcpenney people two years ago, you don't have great department stores. >> we're looking at leadership, but also basic economics. in particular, if the department stores aren't doing as well, you've still got massive retailers like saturn and aldi in particular, expanding all over the world. that's a model that's working. >> brendan, you're right. they ran wal-mart out of continental europe. they're giving wal-mart fits in the u.k., where the sector really struggled. >> leslie, here's a tale of two cities. macy's, bring up the chart for lundgren and company. what a success it's been. t is a moon shoot there.
there's another chart of burt flickinger, leslie, really not all that good, is it? >> absolutely. macy's, what they can do is offer a wide plethora of services to the consumer that comes into the store. jcpenney is seen more of a discount retailer. you don't go there and do your christmas shopping, but what i'm interested in is how both of these types of retailers are responding to apple zn's delivery. that seems to change the game. are they concerned? >> it does change the game, but macys.com have great young buyers in the stores, they're doing a terrific job. macy's still has the development program for the best talent to meet and beat amazon. where ron johnson and his cronies just cut the heart in terms of top talent. >> burt flickinger, thank you very much. helima, 10:20 this morning, be there. let's do a forex report. i got to make some money before
>> gdp at 5%. the bears get lumps of coal. the -- mckinsey, pope francis read the riot act. live from our world headquarters in new york this christmas eve. i'm tom keene. joining me, brendan greeley, and leslie picker with us as well. let's get to the top headlines. >> the dow jones at 18000 and counting. the dow continued its remarkable surge yesterday, spurred by a remarkable report on gdp and a pledge from several nations to raise interest rates. the index has climbed more than 5% in the last five days, the biggest rally since 2007.
another fatal police shooting. a man was shot and killed outside a gas station after an officer conducting "a routine business check" believed he had a handgun. berkeley is located about two miles from the town of ferguson. that is where the august shooting of michael brown cost week of protests, sometimes violent. george h.w. bush has been hospitalized in houston. "as a taken by ambulance progression" after experiencing shortness of breath. he is the oldest living former u.s. president, born about three and half months before jimmy carter, in 1924. >> sony does an abrupt -- an theyt about-face and says are releasing "the interview" in about 300 theaters christmas day.
company,n directed the a fictional plot to kill north korean leader kim jong-il and -- un. jong- and finally, it's in the mail, ups and fedex. the companies made the move in response to -- i'm shocked -- and 11th hour surge in packaging that put some retailers passed our agreed-upon limits. both ups and fedex say that every package do at the greeley household has zero chance for the 25th. look to the 27th or the 28th this year. theou know what happened in greeley household is my wife ordered many, many things a long time ago. it is i am in trouble. >> we are the same way.
markets closing at 1:00 p.m. today. futures up a fraction. weaker over the last number of days. on the big screen with oil, moderately stable. the dow, there's that record that britain was talking about. brent crude above 60 again. futures are up. .f they can only get to 2015 vladimir putin scrambling to support a banking system in crisis. the ruble is stronger for all the wrong reasons. his short-term payment is frozen like elsa. and the arch question is which, if any, global institutions can help rush out of this mess. maryt kaplan has seen poppins 14 times and knows a
ghastly mess when he sees it. thank you for being here. i think of you as a case study. its student putin walked in -- if student putin walked in this morning i given on seas that we have observed, what would you if studentguy? -- putin walked in this morning, given the oddities that we have seen, what would you say to the guy? initial rates are lower and that hurts their gdp, but what he's dealing with now is the banking system, the flow of funds outside the country, everything. the ripple effects will be significant. including political unrest in his own country. >> the books that i read that , phil athey's book about procter & gamble, do you
see any discussion of strategic or tactical theory out of the russian leadership? i don't see it. it seems almost moment to moment, ad hoc. he was a strategist, but his strategy was based on $100 oil. this changes everything and my guess is that he's assessing every aspect of this. and by the way, it's not that easy to assess. he has aess is, if team, they are thinking about that right now. >> all of those consumer facing companies that have been looking to russia as an emerging market and a source of growth in the future, that over. over.that is >> it is over, but even more concerning are the russian banks. and what you don't know is who has exposure to russia. it's obvious the impact of the oil price decline and the impact of that, but the second and effects may not be coming for several months. who has exposure to russia and
what happens to those countries? in thisu were putin country and things get more and as adire as things go on, leader, do you apologize? does he ever backtrack on the decisions that he makes? >> it doesn't sound like it, but more importantly, he's got to get off the sanctions. three months ago they might not seem like much, but they are significant now. seemed might not have like much, but they are significant now. in that regard, the policy will be effective. but will the apologize? getill figure out how to out of the sanctions, whatever he needs to do. >> but he has his own sanctions that he is unilaterally imposed theurope that's part of driving up of prices. >> he was playing one game three months ago and it's a totally different game and he needs to rethink everything. >> i just put this out for
bloomberg radio worldwide. this is a chart in rubles. i put this out on radio. you can see it on radio plus. know, the world doesn't revolve in rubles. it revolves on dollars. it's a little different chart. adjustment is tangible to the institution that a heart of their system. >> is a huge adjustment, and the question is, what exposures does that thing have to businesses in russia that may have a mismatch between domestic revenues and dollar-denominated exposures. and demented debt debt. >> and dollar-denominated exposures. like the housing crisis of 2008, we did not really understand the financial system as well as rethought and we found out later it was a very different system
that we had understood. thought and wee found out later it was a very different system that we had understood. the global effect has not played out yet. >> how do we know so little about what is going on in the kremlin? i feel like we are guessing. >> north korea. >> that is it. >> russia is on one and of the continuum and he can get away with it because he's got such a hammerlock on power. that hammerlock may be threatened and he knows it. so the fear is, what kind of rational or irrational things he does. but most importantly, he's got a whole series of problems now. it,ine is just a part of but he's got a whole range of problems that are very couple get it for any leader, even if he was a different kind of leader. >> does he need a friend from another country? a --an anna to his elsa, if you will.
collect needed that little thing with merkel -- >> he did that little thing with merkel, where they ended up not speaking. i think he needs germany. germany would be a great ally and he knows it. if you want to survive, he's got to work through particularly the and through-- drop, the banking system. >> i don't know if an ally is the right word, but an economic there. they has interest withine already tension europe where poland says, yes, let's expand nato. and germany is saying, this is not an option we ever want to consider. >> three months ago, i don't think he thought he needed germany, but now he needs them very much. china --ou go is to east to china, they are very skeptical of all of the linkage
that we have done between moscow and beijing. that skepticism has always been there. is it still there, or can they actually be allies tackle >> sure -- can they actually be allies? >> sure, they can be allies. going into 2015, markets are very fully valued, priced perfection. the ripple effect in the oil price not just on russia, but on egypt, other oil-rich countries, they will play out globally and it affects everybody, including china. and china knows that. >> robert kaplan with goldman -- formerly with goldman sachs international. stiglitz joins us. ♪ blitz joins us. ♪
and the typical mutual fund and general funds have been underperforming. activism that is -- activism is one thing that is outperforming. >> what is the catalyst here? other activist investors and suddenly their best friend is carl icahn? quietlyyou will notice behind the scenes that many of these vanilla mutual funds are encouraging these activists. >> i have a wonderful year coming up. we are announcing it today and we will see it through the final week of the year. participates and he is just livid over the idea that share buybacks are a bad thing. he says activist investing is hard and there is no downside to buying back shares. carl icahn agrees, doesn't he? does.e i probably don't agree with either of them. -- >> he does. i probably don't agree with either of them. shownk history has
buybacks and financial engineering work for a time, but if you are not growing organically your business, it will catch up with you. and sometimes cash is needed to do that. >> beginning of the year, january 1, i know i get a dividend. i get some kind of yield from cash flow. i begin like a percent, right -- i will be getting like it 8%.ent, -- 6% to why is that better than the bond market? >> because the stock market is trading right now so rich. can he goes to 17 or 18 times earnings? that is fully valued. realize -- in our previous segment, if there is geopolitical unrest, this market is heavily levered. kaplan, on the topic
of activist investing. of thetwitter question day, who on your faculty list is on the naughty or nice list? like everything else in america, 70% off today. -- weto we are headline are monitoring headlines in russia with the ruble stable this morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪
the royal bank of scotland suspends the bonus of 18 traders. the move is part of a review of the foreign exchange business following a 634 million dollar fine. last month, regulators in europe ordered six banks, including rbs and hsbc to pay about $4.3 billion to settle a probe of the rigging of foreign exchange rates. in a follow-up to a story we heorted on yesterday, when touched on is being sued by an investor. managementcapital must back it stake. -- wants back its state. the court there does not make case filings public. those are your top headlines. >> i want to reach out on the polls. watch what they actually do. christmas is around the corner. also around the corner is your
credit card bill. idg research does a lot of careful research in america. they actually go out and two people. and they see -- and speak to people. and they see a lot of optimism. it's wonderful to have you here. how much of a plastic christmas is it? we we leveraging up as always do? >> i don't know if we are leveraging as we have in the past, but there is definitely a that theyg consumers are much more willing to use credit than last year. we always ask them whether they use credit cards more than last year. it's kind of like this in question, no, we will not smoke as much or drink as much. but the percentage of those who use credit less actually dropped
less than those who said it would increase. and we asked the terms of compensation and 60% said they were expecting a raise next year. >> the amazon prime now card, are these kinds of cards changing the way we shop? >> oh, absolutely. whetherquestion of people want to do more online, the answer is guess -- is, yes, they do. the people to want to spend more than 50% of their holiday gifts online. go tothat, they want to stores. couple of years ago we did some surveys asking questions about whether the store matters, does having a physical presence matter? 75% said they did. they like going to the store. they may go to the store and look at it and then order it
online when they got home, but having the store they're determined where they bought it online as opposed to, let's say, amazon versus going to a retail store. fascinating,s data because economic models assume that consumers think about taxes and the future and savings and planning. and what is actually going on is they are looking at wages, money in an money out. that is how they make their planning around credit. >> and they are also looking, i take it, at their debt versus well. -- versus their wealth. showed that is getting impacted. >> i think all of the numbers are really skewed -- a little skewed because when you look at the aggregate, there is money that cannot be cap, where -- --not be taxed, whereas the
cannot be tapped, where is the upper 1% do not know anything. the young workforce has been rising and that is the clearest indication. as we know, the older folk, we are all headed toward florida and sun valley arnold these places. -- and all of these places. well, maybe not now, but in the summer. in terms of the use population, it's not where it was pre-recession, but it is rising. >> i was still getting 18 charge card offers in the mail? i don't get them like i used to. >> i still do. you may have better credit than we do. >> do we still have 18 charge cards in our wallet? >> i don't think so, and people are increasing going to apple pay in
any event. >> you think apple pay is going to work. >> i do. people are very inclined to use it, especially since there is a certain amount of -- you keep a lot of information to yourself when you go to the store and you just put it through. -- [laughs] i have to jump in. i just got a question in my air from the 18-year-old in the control room that said "what is a charge card?" >> if all of the information is logged on, do you think apple pay changes the game? >> it is a virtual wallet. basically, we going to a virtual world. but as i said, 75% of people the physicaleing goods before they buy it. >> and cheap gas helps them to get to the shopping mall. >> yes. >> thank you very much.
>> with the markets closing at 1 p.m., we say good morning to you from our world cap -- our world headquarters. at bloomingdale's, the lines out the door, no doubt, here on christmas eve. oil with $60 per barrel, that gets my attention. but get to the headlines. >> in tokyo, this is what you are looking at right now. shinzo abe is holding a press conference, having just one another term. it gives him a renewed mandate to try to revive a segment -- stagnant economy. he said he will try to put together a stimulus package this week. the president of takata steps down today. he is leaving his post as the troubled airbag manufacturer deals with a global recall.
have been linked to five deaths and triggered the recall of more than 20 million vehicles globally. a recall of its limited edition 918 spider. >> oh, no. i've got to leave right now. >> about 205 cars will be affected, everything one of them owned by a bloomberg surveillance brewer. owned by a "bloomberg surveillance" viewer. $85,000, by the way. about two days to complete and will be made by appointment in 2015. those are your top headlines. according to reuters, some members of opec's back above $70 per barrel in 2018. but it's not clear -- in 2015. but it's not clear how this will happen.
opec is already overshooting targets by about 86 million barrels per day. tot miller, i'm not going try to ask you to predict -- matt, i'm not going to try to ask you to predict the price of oil. take a look at this chart and tell me what they are thinking. >> they are hoping and praying. basically for the last 30 years since these quotas when into effect in the early 80's, they have cheated 90% of the time. i don't how they get to $70 looking at that. they are already producing above their ceiling right now. the iraqis just passed a budget on $60 oil. which is not something they wanted to do, for sure. the saudi's seem perfectly happy to let this thing right. hear statement in last two weeks from a saudi oil minister or a kuwaiti oil minister, it sounds like the beginning of a bar fight.
they are just branding. we can just keep sucking it with a straw out of the ground and we are fine. but they cannot hold out for that long. saudi's can probably will doubt the longest, and the kuwaitis, too, they are probably your lowest cost, $20 or something like that. the saudi's are sitting on thing like 700 plus billion dollars in foreign currency reserves. they have plenty of cash to hold them through. it is libya, iraq, iran, venezuela. not to mention, all of these $100ries need well above to keep their budgets in check. the idea of opec being a cartel that acts in the best interest of the whole is not true anymore. >> and oil expert, edward morris, or adam kaminsky, what are they focused on? announcementsof
and the back-and-forth, what are the pros focused on when a monitor supply and demand? >> it is basically looking at what will happen with u.s. shale right now. >> really? >> globally, we are producing anywhere from one million to 2 million barrels of surplus oil, exceeding demand by most estimates. until those supply-demand fundamentals get back in check, and it will take the better part of the year before we start seeing that. the shale producers in the u.s. are among the high cost producers in the world, outside of your deepwater and your arctic. we probably will start seeing some shale coming off the board next six or eight months or so. gets get thatat down to equilibrium, it will take a while. >> with got to run, matt. we'veyou very much -- >> got to run, matt. thank you very much.
one dollars 33 on west texas intermediate. that is the number one thing i'm watching, the euro, as we go into next week. good morning, everyone. with me leslie picker and brendan greeley this christmas eve. is literally a youtube account to the post service. untilhours and 31 minutes he gives his address at the sistine chapel. and you can read his twitter feed. >> he has been active. >> he has. set down, pope francis and talked with the administrative body of the vatican and gave a speech a little bit like al capone gave at that dinner in "the untouchables." sometimes, he said, the officials of the curia feel themselves the lord of the manor
, superior to anyone and everything. the curia does not criticize itself and bring itself up to date, and does not try to improve a body. >> that is where he stole the language from when she rang me up two days ago. what your 11:00 reading was. >> it was. >> error about a billion catholics in the world. the catholic church is probably the richest institute in the world. imagine the vicar of christ as a ceo who has come to you for advice. he has a corporate culture problem. what does he do? >> the first thing he must do is to set an example, basically set an example for how to behave, their ego, how they spend, the way they conduct themselves. it takes a lot of guts to do that, but he is role modeling it , and you've got to respect them for it.
>> that is one, but it also seems like he is waiting to tackle whatever was is is the biggest problem, the web of intrigue in the vatican. he has to consolidate power, right? >> yes, you set an example and set a tell him, but you've also got to replace people. you got to replace incentives. sometimes you have to change the organization and all of those things lead to a changing culture. you don't just change a culture. you have to change the design of the organization. but it doesn't happen overnight. it takes a couple of three years to do it. is this your voice of god? >> believe me, i do not believe that. and the vatican has been living in splendor. is that something you also do? >> yes, you change that, and you change people. ultimately, this reorganization changes culture.
it doesn't happen overnight. >> why does -- why do we have trouble replacing people? is that a new part of our business versus 10 years ago? >> i think we have always been able to do it, but setting back in the world, and he is aware that wealth inequality is one of the biggest issues the world faces. he knows that any big institution is vulnerable to this and a need to adapt. i think he is getting ahead of it. they have been behind on other issues over the years. some of them are painfully obvious. i think you've got to give him credit. to the post point, i think they've been in this vortex of a system that has spiraled over the centuries. that in the business world where people get worked into one way of doing things? >> yes. what's what is the best way to climb your way out of that? >> good question. >> the classic case is big institutions have an embedded design where the leader comes in and says, i can only do so much. i cannot change it.
i cannot change the congress. i cannot change the executive branch. i cannot change the vatican. thateauty of business is hadn't business, you can change everything. given enough time, money, and determination, and that is why these giant institutions -- that why they are more nimble than these giant institutions. how do you change something that has been indicted, in their case, for hundreds of years apple it is a big challenge. >> -- for hundreds of years? it is a big challenge. >> he is winning back lots of people. ecology france's effect. his power base is the billion catholics -- they call it the francis effect. his power base is the billion catholics that are returning. power base.is it is not the power structure inside the vatican. guts, though.es
>> i'm the else. and with all due respect to the president in honolulu, we don't get time off for the holidays. stock" is next. merry christmas, and happy honda cut, and of course, sayonara. >> why did you do that, bloomberg? why did you turn tom keene is his anti-? now i have stand that santa?into now i have that. thank you for ruining my childhood. we have a christmas miracle. it turns out julie hyman is with us. and it turns out you can get a christmas present, order it and get it within an hour. six -- quest that is right. at 6:16 a.m. -- >> that is
right. at 6:16 a.m. the phone call was made. an hour later, the bike messenger was there. yes and working as a bike messenger for a few years. he has a pack on his back that carries about 40 pounds maximum. >> has he been busy? >> he said he has been busy. a lot of people order toiletries. they say it is quicker to get the stuff from amazon. >> how lazy are we? guy with a plain brown pack. he doesn't actually say "amazon" on in anywhere. of you on radio, it is a grocery bag. >> basically, and the stuff is not wrapped. therefore ms. leslie, we have lena dunham's memoir. for ms. leslie, we have lena dunham's memoir. we know what we have for tom,
the carpenters christmas collection. and also in the christmas your for brendan, we have an ugly sweater. >> oh, yeah. i want to put that on right now. not the kind of thing you would usually get from amazon. hey! here we have the sweater. that? >> isearch for did. they have quite a few ugly sweaters on amazon. it is not everything that is available on amazon, obviously. it would be difficult to have in the warehouse. and of course, amazon is not the only one doing this. and ebay ising this doing this. i'm dreaming of a white christmas ♪
>> [indiscernible] you know the words better than i do. >> i do, sadly. i was skeptical about this. thank you for the christmas miracle. >> it did not even take an hour. it was about 30 minutes. >> could you get amazon prime with the leader of black coffee? -- would like a liter of black coffee? >> probably. >> it is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪
the -- >> good morning, everyone. team.s a great i want to think everyone for putting it together. i received a christmas present, all part of a very special edition of surveillance. of this discussion, you will see it all next week, the collapse of oil. we begin with the great mario cavalli. gabelli. collects this clearly has to help the united states over time. to helpis clearly has the men states over time.
the consumer has a great balance sheet, jobs are rising, and the jobs,, --n of wages, confidence, and every day you are feeling good going to the pub, that is good. think about a lack of energy policy. i think interview i do, of tom petri at petrie partners, and he's adamant that america will be fine with oil in the vicinity of where we are now. like i think we have inadvertently struck on a reasonably -- >> i think we have inadvertently struck on a reasonably good policy. are good forces the economy. middle class wages have been squeezed. working men -- for and women is a part of the household budget. it increases their stunning power and should help the economy. unambiguously good.
cut to thesive tax people who really need it. i don't think there will be any doubt that this will result in higher gdp growth in all importing countries. at there is an ugly. the bad is that it will discourage future investments in energy. 1997, may well repeat 1998 where you get low investment in alternative energy because oil prices are so low. and the ugly bit will take us somewhere that i know you want to go later on, geopolitics. it makes russia a massive wildcard for the global economy. you start to see these curves, what i call quadratic's, what does it a goal to you? >> as mohammed said, is inanimate -- and unambiguous good for the consumer. that taxhey do with cut? do they go out and spend it? the 70% in gdp spending, does that really power them -- power the banks? what you get with the
traders is the banks are remaining quite leveraged. we could see some pop at the end of the year, which could have a limited, but a certain impact. >> what an interesting group. tune into our special edition surveillance 2015, starting and 9 p.m. asm. well. >> are you the barman to the american economy? >> yeah, we had drinks. >> listening to people saw the, wiping of things with a bar towel. >> yeah, cheers. looking forward to that. that was at the waldorf -- waldorf her story -- waldorf astoria. >> the chairman of the federal alan blinder, he says watch out, kim kardashian.
he is highlighting a speech then by the president of new york fed, bill dudley. he says it is hard to be optimistic for banks to outperform themselves. it appearsior -- rescueehavior and the that save their hides was enough -- was not enough. have we done enough to fix the moral hazard? >> probably, and the truth is, the people in this business care about doing the right thing. and a care a lot more than they did 67 years ago about the impact of what they do on the world. -- six or seven years ago about the impact of what they do on the world. i think speeches like that are probably a good thing to challenge the industry to step up their game and worry about
their impact on the world. we are getting there. >> and wonder about the cultural impact of this. in the last five years to have gone from being universally thesed for being lords of american economy to having to think about their role in the world, and i'm thinking about hope even making comments about god and mena and find your way into heaven and making money, is it hard to watch your role in america shift? hard, but going back to wealth inequality in the u.s., which is the overriding issue, the big issue of our time in the u.s., and it's affecting every industry. if you are a pharmaceutical company, you've got to worry about the price of your drugs. if you are certainly on wall street, you've got to understand the change around you and be much more sensitive to it. >> does it come from consultants, or from internally on management? to come from management. >> it cannot be consulted away.
>> oh, no. the book of the year, an easy choice is kissinger's book on world order. agree or disagree? late in the book, henry kissinger considers governance within a new order. leadership skills can come outside and inside the political sphere. what does governance mean to you in 2015? >> it means that you've got to step up and think about not only what the vision is for your business and how you add customers, but your impact on communities, your employees. you've got to fit -- factor in all constituencies, and you've got to do the right thing. delegate.c.l. need to more so, or take on more day-to-day tactical -- does a ceo need to delegate more so, or take on more day-to-day tactical efforts? >> the ceo has to do more, but
the ceo cannot do it alone. if your lieutenants are behaving badly, it reflects on you. delegate and to empower others, but on the tone and make sure his chief lieutenants do as well. >> own the tone, that's the quote of the day. >> when you look at the changes in governance around the country, are you skeptical about what is happening in china to change the political chill -- the political system there? >> is a different system that ours, but they want to play a major role in the world. my guess is, global interconnectedness is affecting them, and i think global trade has got to be a good thing to get everybody to behave better. i think next year, you and i need to wear the sweaters more often. >> everyday, yeah. maybe that is a new joke that won't die after we finally kill frozen. >> that would be true.
>> our new year's resolution would be to get through a day without mentoring frozen -- mentioning frozen. been a good year. this is our last surveillance of the year. dry your tears. get on a microphone. >> taking a sabbatical. >> that is what tom calls a week off. oh, my god, that is a ridiculous wetter. time for the twitter question of the day. with on your naughty and your nice list? -- who is on your naughty and your nice list? barack obama on a nice list. mark carney on the naughty list. next one, our regular view of vladimir putin. the last one, time keen -- tom keene makes those -- makes the naughty list for the "too cool
for school" bloomberg adds. the nice prices topped list. robert kaplan, who is on your naughty and nice list for this year? >> at a have a list, but mark carney should be on the nice list. he's doing a great job in london and is a great central banker. it comes up and again and again is that janet yellen has been so divisive. on their list,r naughty or nice. she is a touchstone for navigating the economy. >> the great online, how do you navigate through the great unwind? of years to couple play out. she is doing a great job in unchartered territory. >> robert kaplan, the one word you could give to the 500 ceos who are watching for 2015, the word is? >> tone at the top. kaplan, says that
doubt is about 18,000 for the first time ever. we are going to parse through the wow gdp revision we saw yesterday with a bloomberg view columnist and former ceo of pimco, mohamed el-erian. will janet yellen become a what itess patient, and means for an increase in the divergent u.s. economy. the dow looks to extend its gains after closing about 18,000 for the first time ever yesterday. the u.s. gdp numbers showed 5% growth in the third quarter. >> the last time we got to in 2003y growth numbers before they raise rates in 2000 for, i would argue all along they were too slow to raise rates then.