tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg February 6, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EST
hollande-merkel pact. they and putin pal -- pow wow in moscow. golf considers a tiger free future. masters panic. good morning, i am tom keene. joining me is olivia sterns and brendan greeley. here's olivia. olivia: the leaders of germany and france will arrive in moscow on a mission to sign a cease-fire over ukraine. the meeting at the kremlin the day after they met with petro poroshenko. here is secretary john kerry. secretary kerry: there has been a number of offerings for russia to take over the course of the past months.
unfortunately they have been left in the rearview mirror. olivia: nato weighs whether or not to arm ukraine forces against russian rebels. to athens supporters of greek alexis tsipras leader rallied in front of the parliament building. the central bank will allow emergency funding for the country's banks. the new prime minister is pairing to lay out his plans for reviving the greek economy. brendan: jobs day. be prepared to be underwhelmed by january numbers, they are often overestimated. the forecast is that u.s. employers added 230,000 workers in january on top of 252000 in december. the unemployed rate is expected to remain at 5.6%. anthem facing what could be the
first of many lawsuits. a california woman filed a lawsuit accusing the health insurer of fairlyling to protected. the fbi is looking into the breach, being blamed on state-sponsored hackers from china. we will have an interview with the reporter who broke the news. tom: tiger woods, let's talk about golf. tiger woods has pulled out of the farmers insurance open in california. he has a bad back. at torrey pines, he decided to call it a day. the injury casts doubt on the athlete's preparations for the masters. those are our top headlines. the back of "the new york post" is simple "ouching tiger." there's a lot of drama. "money -- olivia: he has
not won a tournament since the divorce. tom: he's 39. brendan: he's becoming the husband of a successful skier. tom: data check quiet before the jobs report. 10 year yield does nothing, euro does nothing. nymex crude advance, that's not brent, that's american oil. the vix shows nirvana in the equity markets. watching the yen to see if we break down the stronger japanese yen. there's the ukrainian currency 21..5353. brendan, as hollande and merkel go to moscow, back down to 21. this is a log charg -- log
chart. the curve is unusual. >>brendan: ukraine needs support from the imf. this shows problems with russia invading. this recent movement is what the imf wanted ukraine to do. one thing ukraine has to do is unlike money from the imf. they wanted interbank rates to look more like the black market rates. this is a good thing. tom: important insight to go from a rigged official market to a black market, bring the rigged market back towards the black market. brendan: they need to deal with russia and make the imf happy. tom: jobs day but the distraction is history made in moscow. the president of france and
chancellor of germany will meet with vladimir putin. echoes across centuries. ryan chilcote amid stunning distrust. i've seen this word too many times, measure the distrust. ryan: it is extraordinary. difficult to imagine three people sitting down full of more distrust hoping to have a constructive conversation. you heard angela merkel. she says she does not know what is going to come of the talks. we heard the french president suggest he was doubtful too. saying france and germany will not go down in history as having not tried to stop this war. no one trusts one another but they are going to make their best effort to try and get some kind of cease-fire going. tom: is there a prepackaged deal from the west? ryan: it does not appear to be a deal that the russian president
would readily accept. what we have heard is they want to take the minsk agreement, something they agreed on a couple of months ago, and for that to be a foundation for a new deal. the russian president and the kremlin, they do not really like that and that never went anywhere. we had a month of peace and major violence since then. the quick answer is no but maybe they are keeping something close to the chest. olivia: papers are saying vladimir putin is trying to drive a wedge between europe and president obama. is that your sense of what you putin's strategy is? ryan: the russians never miss an opportunity to point out that europe has real business ties with russia and it is in europe that suffers from sanctions. the relationship between the u.s. and russia business wise is
minuscule, particularly if you compare it to the u.s. relationship with china. it is the eu sanctions, the eu resistance and pressure on the kremlin that putin would like to crack. he is happily sitting down with the french and german leaders and not president obama. it is interesting that kerry, it was just in kiev he is not even coming to moscow. brendan: angela merkel in 2014 was vladimir putin's main contact point with the west. that relationship got chillier in the last half of last year. do we have any sense of where that relationship is now? ryan: the relationship is very poor. the german chancellor has made it clear that she feels like she was burned by the russian president. one of many leaders. president obama probably feels the same way. we saw president hollande try to step in and be in intermediary. there was questions about his credibility given his poor approval rating in france.
also because they have a vested interest in trying to sell warships to the russian that have beens blocked because it eu sanctions. the two of them coming together, everybody feels that gives the talks more of a chance than if it was just one. olivia: do russian people assume luhansk and donetsk are going to become russian protectorates like what we saw in georgia? ryan: this is the assumption. the world forgets about eastern ukraine. it is on the map as part of ukraine but effectively you have a satellite state, a mini-state a statelet within ukraine controlled by russia and funded by russia. they see that as the best case scenario. i think that is what russia thinks is going to happen. tom: thank you so much.
ryan chilcote reporting from moscow. history made later this morning there as hollande, merkel an d putin meet. brendan, there has never been a moment like this. brendan: two european heads of state traveling to do diplomacy together. this is something europe has been terrible at. this is henry kissinger's complaint, if i want to call europe i do not have a single phone number. you know where real power lies, the most significant economies. tom: joe weisenthal with us. you look at credit default swaps and the currency markets ugliness here. how deep are those and how much of a thermometer do you use the ukrainian currency and five-year cdfs? are they accurate?
>> the currency move reflects the major stress on the economy. people can get carried away with cdf's and extrapolate. it is not not interesting. the currency markets tend to be deeper and liquid and affect real people every day. declines in the currency cause import prices to go up and things like that. tom: olivia, you mentioned this about blankets to eastern ukraine. it aniin't happening. olivia: the u.s. has promised ukraine nonlethal military assistance. about half of that has arrived. they are sending blankets. none of the humvees they promised will arrive. there is a sense of distrust. nonlethal assistance is controlled by civilian bureaucracy and not the military. there is urgency and mistrust. my take away is what a difference a year makes for nato. a year ago we were questioning
whether or not nato was still relevant. there could be no greater reminder of the significance of the security alliance. tom: 2 ukrainian soldiers killed and 26 wounded in the last day. brendan: merkel's spokesperson in berlin says there is no sign of possible breakthrough in moscow. we were asking ryan, is there any deal they are going to solidify and answer is no. olivia: have you ever heard of deep panda? the records of 80 million people were exposed in a hack attack. why some officials are pointing to china. this is bloomberg "surveillance" on bloomberg television. good morning. ♪
tom: a quiet screen on jobs day. alan krueger will join us later. brendan: saudi arabia slashing prices for oil sales to asia. saudis continuing to fight for market share. the selling price for arab crude has been reduced below middle east benchmarks. the lowest in 14 years since bloomberg began gathering data appeared australian prime minister tony abbott might be looking for a job as soon as next week. dealing with a revolt from his own party. liberal party members are not happy with spending cuts or his decision to bestow a knighthood. in london, a paul gauguin painting has sold for close to
$300 million. the buyer was the qatar museum's authority in doha. tom: that is spectacular. olivia: the next most expensive painting i can think of is the klimt painting. really only the qataris have those kind of pocket. brendan: soccer teams, airbuses and paintings. olivia: the anthem hackers left a trail. leading u.s. investigators to china. 80 million americans may have had health details stolen. here's connecticut's attorney general. >> some data goes way beyond to
the normal credit cards and addresses and phone numbers. it is personal health information. social security numbers. two of the most important things that need to be protected so this is concerning. olivia: joining us to help us figure out what chinese hackers might want with that information is mike riley from our bureau in d.c. who is deep panda? mike: apparently it is one of many chinese cyber espionage units. this one has been doing some really interesting things. hacking into health care providers, pharmacies, the kinds of places where they can get a lot of information about individuals. it turns out there and main goal is not actually that information. their main goal may be to seateal
defense and military secrets p what they seem to be doing is building giant databases on individuals in key places like defense contractors, in government. there is probably no better place to look for that than in your health records. this may be a giant espionage game. they are looking for information they can use to get into people's computers who are insensitive places or even a step further, old-fashioned human espionage. trying to blackmail or use information. brendan: you've always been so good at explaining mechanics of these hacks. was this hack a particularly sophisticated one or did anthem just not protect itself? mike: and them has gone out of its way to say this is a sophisticated hack. one thing we do know about this group is they are quite sophisticated. that can mean lots of things. one of the things that seems to
be coming out is that the weight anthem -- the way anthem stored data increasingly the state of the art is to take data that is resting and encrypt it. anthem did not do this. they are saying it makes it harder to use. you have to encrypted back-and-forth. they wanted a database that was easier to use. that means it was easier to steal. olivia: a lot of americans are waking up to the knowledge that their social security numbers were not encrypted. trying to figure out what is going on. what can you tell us about how far along the investigation is? looks like this started before the latest with wntanthem? mike: we are still in the early days. they rot in expert consultants
almost immediately. they seem to believe they stopped the attack before he got much worse. there are indications that the 80 million number may come down as they learn more. they could also learn that the hackers have been in longer. they could learn they had access to different kinds of data. we are early days. there is another investigation, u.s. intelligence officials are very concerned about chinese cyber espionage taking health data not just from anthem but from networks all of the country. there is a larger u.s. intelligence investigation about what is going on. how are they using this data what is it for? do they have to be worried about espionage efforts using this data down the road? brendan: for the last couple years officials have been frustrated that companies take so long to share news of these breaches. it makes their jobs more difficult to coordinate a response.
where are we in getting companies to be more upfront? mike: anthem seems to be unhappy that they were breached. the anger has translated into a more aggressive action. they called the fbi right away, by all accounts. after sony you are seeing more companies who are pissed off and more willing to step up. and anthem's case, there were u.s. regulatory requirements that they report this. they seem to have tried to get in front of this as quickly as they can. olivia: did we name then deep panda or do they call themselves deep panda? that is the name of brendan greeley's band. mike: deep panda is the name given to it by a security company. it has other names but that is the most evocative. olivia: wow.
go to bloomberg.com and read michael's story. tom: jobs day. alan krueger, bill gross, jim glassman and jeffrey rosenberg will join us. we talk about jobs day and how it folds into your financial repression. stay with us worldwide and across america, this is bloomberg "surveillance." good morning. ♪
security. he got a document that was distributed to congress that points out and a lot of what we promised to ukraine has not arrived. he writes -- "shortfalls are undermining the credibility of new pledges." just to give you a sense of the nonlethal aid that has not arrived. a water purification system, medical supplies, sleeping bags and 100 humvees and armored ambulances. tom: this goes back to the marshall plan and the miracle we delivered what we said we would deliver. brendan: the airlift in berlin. the american with capability is unparalleled. why it's hard to believe this is not happening. olivia: this is creating a trust deficit between the ukrainians petro poroshenko and the u.s. partly because it is a civil bureaucracy that governs how
fast we can get nonlethal aid instead of the military. brendan: states in that position are weak but have the ability to shame the west. something that petro poroshenko has pointed out in davos blankets are not going to win this war. olivia: it is interesting with jordan, they had plenty of arms but that did not help them win. brendan: be prepared to be underwhelmed by the payrolls number. the january jobs number could have you disappointed. that is our twitter question of the day. tweet us @bsurveillance. ♪ . .
locations. it endured 11 straight quarterly losses and shares dropped 86% last year. and lincoln's forecasts beat estimates. the push into china starts to pay off. analysts were looking for $2.71. linked in a says user growth was climbing steady to 347 million members. shares jumped. wall street's criticism of twitter ceo's dick costolo, the quarter revenue jumped, beating analysts estimates. twitter also expects to add 13 million to 16 million new users and the next order. shares of sort. those are your top headlines. i like the figure i saw this year that yes, twitter's user growth is growing. facebook still has one billion. tom: we will talk about this in
the next hour, but brandon, you mentioned apple. brendan: yeah it just shows how interdependent all of these companies are. twitter said one of its problems was adjusting to an apple ios update. tom: trust me, i lift it. brendan: sure, but they are all cutting deals to make sure it is all compatible. all right, moving back to the east coast, d c, we will get a jobs number today. wage growth has been stuck in the 1.7% range since 2011. january forecast is 1.9%. people find anecdotal hints at future pressures, but the wage is not there. an economist with bloomberg intelligence but has a degree in arrow space -- in aerospace engineering, do you like where we are going why is there no effect causing wage growth? olivia: nice. >> because forward airspeed is not high enough to present the
left. -- the lift. inflation is a lagging indicator. consumer indication lags economic growth by about six quarters, so we should not be seeing significant weight inflation until we reach full employment, and then it will show up with the lack, so full employment somewhere between five point 25%, 5.5%. we are not there yet. we will get there soon, but wage inflation will be slow to turn around. the last cycle is very instructive because we had to go down to a 4.6% rate for the cost index to. go higher. olivia: joe, do you agree? joe: it is clearly spot on. it makes a lot of sense. people have been calling this, myself included, i would have expected weight inflation to pick up earlier, but the point
carl nicks, they had a great chart going around earlier this week makes it very clear case that we are not at full employment yet. carl: furthermore the official on up limit rate is 5.6%, but if you look at the fixed rate at 11.2% that is well above where we were in the prior cycle when wage pressure started to turn higher. brendan: it almost sounds encouraging, what you are saying, that this recovery is not different from all of the others. carl: this time is not different, and the same old relationships apply. we are just not at those thresholds yet. we will be at those thresholds probably in the latter half of this year or the early part of next year, so do not look for wage inflation just yet. tom: we make a joke about aerospace engineering but here is the math, folks for those of you out there, this is the euler function of what he is talking about. this is important. this is janet yellen math. the fact is the transfer of your undergraduate degree over to
what janet yellen does is valid and everybody wants smooth curves, joe, they just lots continuous -- that is not the way this works. when you're reading the job economy, it gets discontinuous. things happen. joe: that is exact we what we have seen. we have had a lot of improvement over the labor market for several years and it keeps hitting better and better, but until as carl has been pointing out, until we hit that threshold this wage element of it, there is no pressure for it to kick in. carl: to joe's point, there is a big difference from the on up limit rate on six points of light as it -- the unemployment rate from 6.5% to 5.6 percent, things change in a change quickly. brendan: an index hour, we have got alan krueger on to talk jobs but also some work he did with uber looking at the sharing economy.
carl, has the nature of work changed enough to also change the way wages and unemployment work? carl: well the nature of work is continually changing. union membership declining since the 1960's, the different industries that are driving the economy have changed over that time. we are much less dependent on the manufacturing sector for employment. inventory management has become much more efficient, so all of these things have changed, which is why it is hard to draw parallels to cycles from the 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's, and is probably more instructive to look back to maybe 1990's, and more importantly the 2001 to 2007 sector. olivia: the rise of the part-time economy, the sharing economy, the uber economy is why we still see slacken wage? josh: it is possible -- joe: it is possible. this was a fertile ground for them to rise because there was
all this labor slacken opportunity. it will be a while before we know anything about what the real impact on the economy is, but i think it makes sense that in this period when a lot of people lost their jobs, that it was a good moment for these companies to spring forward. brendan: this trend is also so new, carl, it is hard to get data. we only started saying the word uber 18 months ago. carl: sure you have a lot of effectively part-time independent contractors, and that as a lot of slack. that does provide a potentially slightly slower turn in wage pressures, and that is why we can focus on things like the unemployment rate still at 11.2% full stop was in the mid-8% range when it changed in the last cycle. brendan: karl is going to stick around. this is our twitter question of the day, what we are talking about right now -- does the sharing economy provide good jobs or does it just provide a little extra money? tweet us @bsurveillance.
farmers insurance open, is to has been replaced, but his back has not gotten better. bad news for tiger, terrible news for the industry of golf. here is what you are looking at. we were trying to figure out what effect tiger has had good and bad on the game of golf. at the top is nielsen ratings for masters tournament over the years going back to 1992. underneath of it is share value share price of callaway, a pure golf company. what you see there look at 1997. i graduated from college, the world was young, tiger was on top of his game, everything worked --olivia: i think i was in seventh grade brendan: thank you for that. i feel better every day when our member how young you are. a importantly, how old tiger woods is. his back is that callaway is doing terrible, and the nielsen ratings are going down as well. we have towo guests, one who plays golf and wanted is
not. joe: i have always been terrible. olivia: you are mini golf. joe: i do not play much, but i am not bad at minigolf. equities, bonds, currencies commodities if it is once -- carl: if it is once every five years, then joe and i are on the same level. tom: i've seen a huge change, almost caddied at the trevino open. i did not. i was at the age cut off. brendan: only tom keene i almost caddied in the lee trevino open. tom: that magical weekend where he came to prominence, it has become an industry. you came home with $25, yeah, i am loaded. brendan: i think you would be
very unsettling as a caddie. i think you would stand right next to the tee and yell "velocity!" olivia: brendan, tom would never backseat drive on the green. the question is whether or not millennial's are interested because tiger has lost his glow which brings us to the back cover of the "new york post" this morning -- "ouching tiger." brendan: i think they change that to make him look like he was in more pain. tom:olivia: as the second he is living in the shadow of his girlfriend, lindsey vonn. number three in the republic of guinea, the african semifinal game was interrupted by riots. two late goals in the first half of the game. it took police over 30 minutes to clear the crowd. tier grout -- tear gas was used. brendan: this is huge because
this was a big moment for the african cup. basically stadium safety equals sponsored dollars. we saw this in the english premier league in the 1980's and early 1990's, and this is some that african soccer has been trying to do for a wild this was supposed to be the cup that they sort of emerged. tom: is this western africa? brendan: yes. tom: may i stated the celebration after what they have been through with ebola? brendan: there is some good news is that is at least under control. tom: great photos. olivia: another from the south pacific, sam costa descended into a volcanic crater, temperatures can near 500 degrees, he used drones attached with what, gopros! the renderings are used to help scientists research. tom: this is joe weisenthal's next remote, right?
brendan: he looks like he is summoning lava from the bowels of the earth. "and i bring you fire! fire! fire!" tom: i wonder what the pros think of this, the volcanologists. and all that. brendan: that is tom keene on jobs day. tom: it has been hawaii and those islands out there. olivia: i'm number one photo the day, daniel day-lewis he you might remember him, this is a photo of abraham lincoln the image was taken in his studio and washington, d.c. tom: i pulled rank last night is that we have to do this photo. this is spectacular. i urge everyone to get a good monitor and spend five minutes looking at this photo. i did a week on lincoln in 2009,
and there is no other equipment photo. it is like he is there in the room with you. it is a stunning work of photography and congratulations to "the atlantic" for putting it out. "in the loop is this why you wear a bow tie -- olivia: is this why you wear a bow tie? tom: you can literally see that the sideburns are not cut. olivia: to be honest, i had no idea that the cameras back then to produce this quality. tom: huge resolution, and the issue with the depth of field, his ears are out of focus, the only thing and focus are his nose, his eyes, his eyebrows one sheet, not to cheeks, and when you stare at it, because fabric comes out of his suit. he is there. an extraordinary photo. there it is. a little bit of digression on photos. our next hour, of course it is jobs a. alan krueger will join us from princeton university, of course the chairman of the council of
quiet markets as we get ready for the 8:30 jobs report. right now, top headlines from around the world. brendan: walmart looks to improve its image in china. signing a veteran employee to enhance the retailer's reputation. maggie sung the new corporate affairs officer in china. a four-year loss for mcdonald's japan affiliate, struggled with food scandals in asia and was forced to russian french fries. the 2014 net loss was $186 million compared with a net income of $43 million the previous year. same-store sales plunged 39% for stop that is the 12th straight month of decline. pope francis of it as a couple for parents to spank their children. thank you, francis. no hitting in the face. olivia: i like that. brendan: thank you, i am with
you on that. the vatican has not elaborated on the remarks. tom: go ahead, latest story. brendan: i will tell you last night, i will never and did not strike a talk him i did, however, take away at bear last night and the night before because there were screens that were disrupting everybody's sleeve. last night, a five-year-old showed up and said she did not get to sleep because her nose hurt. i did not know how to make the nose not hurt, so instead i took away the bear. olivia: i have a european mom, so when you are really, really awful -- [laughter] olivia: you are watching, mom, i forgive you. brendan: is she catholic? olivia: yes, she is catholic. remember, the pope had a youtube hangout. he is part of the reason why we are suddenly opening the door
with cuba, and here is he is on the cover of "usa today," a first for a poke, he is going to speak to both houses of congress. tom: the debt and deficit did ebate in america, peter peterson can take a momentary victory lap, but too much spending and too little revenue will be again upon us. mr. peterson is dismayed with in his new book "steering clear" of short-term is them in washington. peter: we spend very, very little political energy on the long-term future. if you think of your program, i bet the vast majority is what will happen the next five years or 10 years. the immediacy of it is there, but that is not the problem we are dealing with. the problem is 20 years, 30 years, and we are not doing anything about that. tom: yeah, but today, the deficit is better.
why worry? how do you engage america in a straight with a 3%, 2.8% deficit to gdp? life is good. peter: i wonder sometimes if there would be away and getting the young people involved because if you stop and think about it, pushing awful of these problems on the future, who are we pushing them off to? it is our kids, young people. they bring along their parents in many cases because the parents, if they understood what the issue was, do not want to see their kids suffer trauma in their later lives because we were indifferent to this problem. tom: p peterson, his new book is "steering clear." i thought it would be good for stop it is not good -- it is great. it has spectacular charts, gorgeous, spectacular charts of our clear and present danger. joe weisenthal with us, he has
followed this with "business insider," now with bloomberg for stuckey is fragile, the debate goes on. where will this debate be in either years? joe: i will be surprised if anything changes. you look where the political debate has moved too. a few years ago maybe there was some momentum. the debt ceiling stuff now people are talking about vaccines, so i think the ship has sailed for now. tom: i talked to him, carl, about senator rudman and the original coalition, and he has been doing this and doing this but i do not see the cathartic catalyst to really get the debate going. carl: well, we had the debate on the show earlier this week, if i wanted to address the point, i've have with olivia because she was asked whether she would get social security benefits and she shook her head no. now, social security has run a surplus in every year of its existence. in fact, other components of the
economy have borrowed from the social security trust fund so it has been adequately funded to this point. what is to say that we cannot have social security borrow back from those other components that have been borrowing from it for the last 40 years? olivia: every chart i have ever seen on the issue shows that long-term social security -- carl carl: it is a short-term period when the baby boomers go into retirement. once we get beyond that period when the baby boomers have passed, that it is solvent again, so the issue is simply workers-to-retirees. we just ignore workers. so in immigration reform is an answer. olivia: that is a good point. joe: this is a fiction, the idea that social security trust fund and so forth ultimately it has to be a political one, not one about a counting bucket, and if so where would be political impetus ever come from? carl: well, it is a political
decision because it will not be funded when the baby boomers are in their retirement years. tom: bring it up here, greater than 27 weeks, this is structural unemployment, and we are nowhere near back to where we were. brendan: i think this chart is a good answer to pete peterson's question, whereas of course the long-term matters, people have more discretionary income, economists tend to think about long-term problems. people think about their wages, do they have a job right now? equities, bonds, currencies commodities running the economy -- carl: running the economy at little hot. we cannot run a hot enough to solve the social security problem, but we can certainly minimize it. this is the great monetary policy experiment that janet yellen is conducting because she is trying to see if she can bend the labor force participation curve by holding rates lower for longer and trying to bring those marginal partisans back in.
wages rise on this job stay? economists our focus on your paycheck. too many americans are falling behind. call it the hollande-merkel pact. in moscow. where is the beef? next to the diamonds. $33 a pound for the good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is jobs a friday, february 6. i am tom keene. joining me olivia sterns and brendan greeley. let's get to top headlines. we start with olivia. olivia: leaders in germany and france are on their way to moscow on an urgent mission to sign a cease-fire agreement with russian president vladimir putin over ukraine for stop emergency meeting comes at the kremlin after angela merkel and francois hollande as well as secretary of state john kerry met with ukrainian president petro poroshenko. he is pessimistic about his
willingness to defuse the crisis will stop so is the u.s. here is that various state to john kerry. secretary kerry: as i have said repeatedly, there have been a number of offerings for russia to take over the course of the past few months, but unfortunately they have been left in the rearview mirror. olivia: the meeting comes as nato weighs whether to arm ukraine forces against the russian rebels. now to athens where supporters of new leader alexis tsipras rallied around the parliament building. the central bank that that will allow six to $9 billion of emergency funding for the country's banks. the ball is now in tsipras' court. brendan: it is job stay in america. we have alan krueger onset. be prepared to be underwhelmed not by alan krueger, but by the january numbers for stop they are often overestimated this time of year.
nonfarm payroll consensus is that u.s. employers added 230,000 workers in january. that is on top of 252000 and a simmer. the on employment rate is expected to remain at 51 six cents. -- $5.6%. anthem is facing what could be the first of many lawsuits was up a california woman filed a lawsuit accusing the health insurer of failing to protect the private data of its customers, this after private information of tens of millions of patients was stolen for stop the fbi is looking into the breach, which is being lain on state-sponsored hackers from china. tom: collar round of 11, another setback for tiger woods will stop he is out of the farmers insurance open in california, exiting on the 12th hole. he made 70 shots at 40 pines and said i cannot do it. the 39-year-old's preparation for the masters, that is the first major golf championship of the year. i tried to get a ticket, and i
have never been able -- i cannot get a ticket to be masters. brendan: i have never considered wanted to get a ticket. i would sooner go to a next game -- knicks game. tom: no, i would rather go to the masters. let's get a job stay data check. nymex crude elevated at $52 a barrel. it is jobs day. for the next two hours, we will focus on wage on inflation but first, the elite meet and greet, yesterday john kerry in kiev this morning, joe biden in brussels, the vice president talking up european union leaders. brendan: what he said is russia cannot be allowed to redraw the map of europe. tom: yeah. brendan: very important calling ukraine europe. tom: and they continue to debate with the from in moscow. our phil mattingly is in washington, and he takes a military attack this morning here on the nato consensus. phil, where is nato this morning
in this debate? phil: it is difficult, tom. you have mentioned it a couple times nato is 28 nations it is a complex group of nations that have different interests. what they have been doing and what they announced yesterday as they are going to give the green light to a rapid reaction force basically keeping it focused on eastern europe. this is a big deal, something that has been talked about for the last seven months or eight months, starting with the nato summit back in september of last year in wales, so the fact that they are green lighting this, the european nations will take turns leading this rapid reaction force is a big deal. it matters. it is another thing that will put pressure on russia. the big concern from a number of nato countries is -- how far can you push nato, push policy site on nato without russia having some sort of drastic response? when you talk to u.s. officials, they do not feel like russia can do much more than what it is doing now, so they want to take
any lever they can and will lead to try to add more pressure to them. olivia: i do not think we are telling viewers enough, just how threatening these rapid response centers, lined up on the eastern border with russia and europe do really look to vladimir putin. that said we spoke to ryan chilcote from moscow earlier in the show, and he said the strategy is for putin to try to drive a wedge between the u.s. and its european allies. what brendan just said about joe biden saying putin cannot redraw the map of europe, france while not just yesterday said there is war on the doorstep of europe, -- francois hollande said just yesterday that there is war on the doorstep of europe. ryan: this is where the president was the looming decision -- phil: this is where the president's looming decision to provide arms to ukraine is a big deal for stock angela merkel has said flat out it she does not think is a good policy, french leaders say it is not a good policy, though they will not stand a new way of it.
the white house, including the president himself, are not sold it is good policy, but there is so much pressure on the u.s. right here, if the u.s. decides to move forward on this unilaterally, they will not have european support. the biggest issue the president has been tried to confront over the last year has been keeping his european allies with him every step of the way. it is white u.s. is not -- it is why the u.s. has not gone forward on sanctions. tom: phil mattingly, thank you so much, and of course the story will be on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio throughout the morning as merkel andalon -- as merkel and hollande meet in moscow. we are excited to bring you jeffrey rosenberg from black rock and alan krueger from princeton university. it is the myth and measurement of this job stay. jeffrey rosenberg, let me start with you. what do we know for certain about the myth and measurement of labor? jeffrey: average 200,000 jobs
created every month. this is a jobs market that is creating jobs. what we are concerned about -- what we are confused about is whether it is creating wages. tom: beautifully said. alan, this goes to the idea of the myths out there. is it one america, or as you said, there are two job economies? alan: we have the divergence in the last 30 years and he just economy, and that is not going to turn around overnight. when we get back to full in plymouth, we will see stronger wage growth. we are seeing hints of that. there was a lot of question about what happened with hourly wages, so i will be focused on a winning numbers come out this month. olivia: how significant is today's jobs report? does a big beat miss the timing of liftoff? jeffrey: as alan said, it is the wage figure, you had a revision of a positive number in november happen in the last
report, you had a very surprising negative number in the last report, people are looking for that to be revised because it is out of sync with everything else that the jobs market is saying about what should be happening with wages, so i think the market is going to focus on the wage figure. if you have got a positive figure the most important thing is it will take the pressure out away from falling inflation at patient and a big decline in bond yields. brendan: alan krueger, i look at the president's budgets, and i said i had a question for you. one ascension he made was an -- one assumption he made was an unemployment rate of 5.3%. is that the what you see are world? is that the natural rate? alan: i would not be surprised if it was lower. we do not see signs of wages overheating yet. we have seen the unemployment rate go down to below 4%'s without much of a rise in inflation. low 5% seems quite plausible to me. tom: to that point, let's bring
up the charts, i will put this out on bloomberg radio all prettied up where in the world is nehru. ? jeff, explain the academics that krueger they all fight like cats over where the so-called nehru is? ajeffrey: the average investor's suffering. they're suffering from a lack of income, a lack of opportunities and that is part of this nairu question because the longer that unemployment appears to be too high relative to the number, you keep zero interest. tom: i want to put you on the spot, alan zener says no wage inflation, many other economists say let's go, let's go, where is alan krueger? alan: if the economy continues
the way i hope, the middle of this year -- tom: are you still working for the white house? [laughter] alan: the president did tell me that things got much better after i left. tom: what did you tell jason furman when you said you have got to talk into a microphone? alan: i tell him every month his job as much easier than mine was. olivia: it might not matter how much the u.s. economy is improving, it is the international development. alan krueger, thank you so much, you are staying with us as guest house for the hour. we will be back in just a moment, but in the meantime tom, your stake is getting pricier. we are looking why steak is breaking the bank with the secretary of agriculture. tom bills that will be joining us -- tom vilsack will be joining us in a. this is "bloomberg surveillance." on bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg.com. ♪
olivia: i think this is right to the heart of the issue, whether or not we should arm as carter, the new incoming defense, we expect, has said he would support or he might support arming ukrainian rebels, but will i do anything good, or will that just escalate the conflict? brendan: if this becomes a frozen conflicts, if the borders where they are are excepted that is a win for vladimir putin. it is just grading a little festering pocket that is so unstable that nato is on interested, the european union is not interested, and is larger countries around his pockets have to stay within his orbit. olivia: that is what you are hearing a lot of security analysts saying, that putin is after a freezing of the status quo, and donetsk could become
similar to others. brendan: exactly. nato is never going to look at ukraine that has -- with the status of donetsk. undecided. olivia: and a force this issue of whether we arm the ukrainian rebels is the key sticking point between angela merkel and friends wall on -- and francois hollande. they have made an emergency trip, and they are very eager to prevent more weapons going to rebels. brendan: we talked recently about shinzo abe considering rewriting the japanese constitution. in less drastic ways, that is what the germany is going through as well. angela merkel, as she does this policy -- as she does diplomacy, germany is having to rethink what it means to be a powerful democracy in the world. tom: for those on radio, the video we just ran it looks like the airborne and battle of the bolton world war ii. we are nowhere near funding.
is there any consensus in america to arm ukrainians? olivia: no, there is no consensus, and it is not clear that even if you send them weapons that the troops are trained to use them, and the will is there to launch a ground invasion -- it does not matter if we send arms. it is not going to do anything. tom: there it is. a jobs day at 8:30, we have great guest, the secretary of labor, secretary perez on "in the loop" this morning for step stay with us with alan krueger on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" this jobs day. we have got alan krueger and jeff rosenberg with us. let's get to top headlines from around the world. olivia: saudi arabia is slashing prices. it is a sign saudi's are continuing to fight for market share. the official sailing price for arab light crude has been reduced from $.90 to $2.40 a
barrel. that is the lowest marked -- that is the lowest since bloomberg begin gathering that data. and revolt inside his own party, liberal party members are not happy with his spending cuts or his decision to bestow a knighthood on prince philip. abbott says he will fight a vote on his leadership. in london, -- it is one of the highest prices ever paid for a work of art. the 1892 painting is entitled "when will you marry?" the buyer, you can probably guess was the qatar authority in doha. tom: took his book royalties and bought the puppy. brendan: that would be a beautiful story. the price of beef has been rising for a year and is likely to keep going. in january, a man broke into a barbecue joint in san antonio
and stole $2500 worth of brisket. you can feel for him but the for a man who needs that cut that badly, but perhaps there are market forces at play. tom vilsack is not the thief, he is the united states secretary of agriculture. secretary, we are looking at the price of beef rising. is this a very simple consequence of a drought, or are there other market forces at play? secretary vilsack: it is absolutely a result of the drought. brendan: there is no change in the consumption habits in the u.s., for example. secretary vilsakc:ck: not really. olivia: for those of you on radio, we are watching slime. brendan: beef has been a sticking point in japan and south korea. if we are going to move this trade agreement forward, which the president has said is a priority, how you get past that? secretary vilsack: basically
making the case that a science-based and rules-based rule system that allows us to let our beef going to be market and we are seeing opportunity in both japan and korea. the problem is not an beef, eggs and dairy, poultry, and rice, other commodities. 1800 lines of trade and negotiation, there's a lot of agriculture. brendan: you have to get something, too. what has to be given? secretary vilsack: our markets are so open, it is basically suggesting we have an open market and they need a market that is as open as ours. if that is the case, we will always be competitive. tom: the days get longer, how you have american farmers' backs? secretary vilsack: record exports, expansion of local and regional food systems, the development of ecosystem markets and encouraging more conflagration -- more conservation, and the bio economy. tom: what is that, is that a jargon alert? secretary vilsack: it is making
everything in the economy from bio-based materials. you take animal waste and you can produce a wide variety of materials. it is an incredible new explosion of innovation in agriculture and manufacturing. olivia: do we really need more farmers? aren't we paying many farmers do not form? secretary vilsack: no, we have the most affordable and diverse food supply in the country, and the world and it gives us an opportunity for everyone around this table to do exactly what you're doing today because you delegated the response body of feeding your family's to some of the else. tom: is it true that food here is 1/3 less than europe? brendan: i have no idea. when i was in europe, i was feeding only myself. secretary vilsack: it is half. we spent about 10% of our paychecks for food, and most developed countries it is 20% to 25%. tom: a former linebacker, was it missouri or something? brendan: secretary, we have been
talking about trade but one of the most against can acquisitions from abroad of purchases of american products is the chinese acquisition of port suppliers. should we be worried at all about summary of controlling such a vital part of our own economy the way we feed ourselves? secretary vilsack: not necessarily. the whole idea -- i was surprised by these vices because this is jobs day on the station. [laughter] actually trade is about jobs and one of the problems with trade in this country as we do not do enough explanation of how it is connected to jobs, and these are jobs that pay better. 13% to 18% more export jobs versus non-export jobs. that is why this trade agreement is so important. $123 billion of additional opportunity. tom: i want to talk about legumes. you had that first smell of soybeans and it is like a whole other spell for a whole part of america, so i want to go back to 1980 and the 2010 here it is
the dietary guidelines for the usda and for america. dried peas and beans such as soybeans, kidney beans, lima beans, black-eyed peas, which are a good way to make children angry. now let's was forward to 2010, and you wrote these, i believe it is the same damn thing. you're forcing legumes on us kidney beans, black beans, garbanzo beans -- known as chickpeas -- lima beans, though stupid lima beans again black-eyed peas, but this is the real american agriculture, isn't it? making legumes, eating them, exporting them. secretary vilsack: it is also encouraging better school lunch and school breakfast based on fruits and vegetables. look, we have got 1/3 of hourly youngsters at risk of being obese. we have the government saying we do not have enough people to
olivia: let's get you to our top headlines. radioshack makes it official -- it has finally filed for bankruptcy. the consumer-electronics chain plans to turn about 4000 stores into sprint locations. it will close the rest. they had endured a straight quarterly losses and shares dropped 86% last year. forecast for 2015 beat estimates as it pushed new product offerings. the networking services expects annual profits of $2.95 per share. analysts were looking for $2.74. linkedin says user growth was steady climbing to 347 million
members. wall street's criticism of twitter ceo may soon ease. the cubbies fourth-quarter revenue jumped 97% to $479 million, that beat analyst estimates. its net loss narrowed. twitter also expects to at 13 to 16 million new users in the first quarter. those are your top headlines. tom: let's go to our guest post alan krueger. forever associated with david card. they change the debate on jobs and education summit two decades ago. politicians pay lip service, we need more education. does education really matter after the pomp and circumstance of graduation? there is this idea of continuing education. how do we incentivize that in america?
>> education means more than it has in the past. we need to take advantage of the technology. we have a great opportunity with online education. i think it will succeed. we need to figure out which platform is best. the president's proposal for making community college free will help. if you look at countries that have managed to do much better than us with the rise -- those are countries that expanded their education at a faster clip. tom: you are an expert on this. we do not have to figure this out it is not original thinking, it has been done by other countries. name one that has done well. alan: canada. they have not have the problems of the decline in the middle class that we have. they have the tremendous increase in education and of ministry in a incorporate a whole lot more immigrants than we have. tom: is there pro-dex differential, are we more
ruthless america? alan: we have been, i do not think we need to be. there is a great deal more difficulty for children born into less fortunate circumstances. tom: how do we jumpstart the debate of politicians of we need more education? what is the thrust we can do internet few years? alan: there are a lot of things we can do. improve preschool. access to preschool. how do we fund it? it is fine for everyone to before it, but no one is stepping up to the plate and coming up with solutions. tom: do we do a federal mandate? is that something that is so common sense government should do? alan: i think government have a's keep -- a key role to play. we have not found a funding source. the president propose an increase in the tobacco tax,
there was not one hearing on that. we need to get serious about how we pay to improve our education system from kindergarten to continuing education. tom: americans want to learn computers, the romance of a blue-collar job. a manufacturing society from another time. have you speak to those people? alan: there are some manufacturing jobs that are coming back. more advanced manufacturing. if you visit a plan, it is remarkable how high tech they are any skills that are required. we do need to do a better job taking high school students to visit manufacturing plant and let them see the skills they will need. tom: the community college issue is a raging debate. alan: community colleges have varying quality, but by and large they do a good job and they are very much in touch with the demands of the workforce. tom: on the reality of better education, olivia? olivia: let's take a look at where futures are trading.
a higher open. futures up by three points. the on the 10-year note a little change. still trading above 1.8%. the euro slightly weaker against the dollar, trading at 11462. nymex crude up 2.8% heading for its biggest gain in more than a decade. tom: i am tom keene. olivia, we look to europe. olivia: angela merkel is on to speed directly face-to-face with president putin appeared to the goal to strike an immediate cease-fire in ukraine. hans nichols joins us from berlin. can you tell us anything we have learned about what she would accept? hans: what she wants, the cease-fire that was agreed to to be adhered to. we have great reporting out of berlin, we are reporting that she is pessimistic about the
prospects of this mission to be successful. that she will take a pretty stern tone. she is leaving tm right now flying to moscow. she will be route reading president putin the riot act. brendan: you have been watching the change in the relationship between angela merkel and president who knew what easy about the language about where their relationship is? hans: frustration, acceptance, and now it is hardball. angela merkel has dispatched so many of her rivals. i do not want to go president putin a rival, but she is a debt at dealing with male counterparts. how she counters president putin, she needs the support and backing from her european counterparts, which is why she is heading over there with francois hollande. if they do not come back with
anything tangible from moscow and it does not look like they will. you could see additional sectoral sanctions placed on russia out of brussels next week. olivia: greece, we had that extort area press conference. -- that extraordinary press coverage. they said we agree to disagree. is this just all bluster, or to think the germans will not budge? hans: that is the question everyone is asking. the other question is whether there is political space in greece for the new government to budget from their ledge to end austerity. -- pledge to end austerity. when they landed back in greece they were greeted by protest but not against what they were doing. these were anti-austerity protests right to bolster the government, give them backbone
for their negotiations. not just with germans, but the rest of europeans. there is not a whole greece's new parliament. the germans do not seem to be getting much ground. we still have to figure out the short-term financing, how they will get bridge loans and get beyond the end of this month. the broader question of whether there will be any sort of, not forgiveness, but the change in maturities of the long-term debt. brendan: it does not sound like there is negotiate angela merkel. german saying the new greek government must honor its agreement. it's 58%. is there any sense of whether angela merkel is more or less hawkish that her own population? hans: she is a couple ticks to the south of her population. she is popular.
70% and a poll this morning. her coalition government they are at about 57, 50 8%. the coalition come of the merkel strategy has a fair amount of the backing. in terms of the individual strategy of how to get there i suspect she will be given a few passes, even if the populace is anti-greece. tom: thank you very much. we appreciate the drama and the history of what we have seen in europe. stunning headlines. i have never seen it in 13 years. brendan: two european leaders on a diplomatic trip. there is no european union counterpart. tom: we are going to come back and talk about twitter. olivia, you are going to mention that. and then i want to talk to jeff rosenberg about how the financial system it's into all this drama that we are seeing in europe. the twitter thing, olivia, yesterday was 20 -- stunning.
we are going to rip up the script. this is a big deal. twitter came out with revenue up 97%. dick costolo stunned the world. it is no sigrid and the rest of the world talks about it every day. -- it is no secret. we use core user by not addressing simple trolling issues that they face every day. finally, they talk about the abuse that is out on social media. brendan: i would disagree with one small point, trolling issues are not simple. there are ways to deal with trolls going back to chat lines from the early 1990's. olivia: i have one that particularly drives me nuts. what is twitter doing about isis? a private american companies network is being exploited by terrorist.
brendan: they are having to shift their network. i talked to them about this five years ago. what happens when you become the press office for nasty organizations? their answer at the time was, we are all about our users and we do not want to get into that. they are realizing they have to get into that. they do not have a choice. olivia: i like that he said the buck stops with me. that i take full responsibility. tom: this is a front and center issue. there is a raging debate about the option out of the of losing your commemnts on facebook. brendan: it is the consequence of twitter and facebook. you cannot conversations with anybody come with strangers, with facebook you have conversations with people you have selected. though the conversation can be difficult on facebook, they are more valuable to advertisers. tom: i spoke to a major search engine company.
i said why don't you have one button on gmail to block -- brendan: which company were you talking about? tom: it was insane. brendan: distant with twitter, there were two dueling headlines. they have gotten their tweets back in the search results of google. that is huge. they wanted to control their own traffic, so they have not been on google. they are working with engineers from google to get those back. the other is correlating software releases with apple. tom: this goes with jeff rosenberg, people scared stiff of social media. blackrock is an example. they are petrified about what could happen. jeff: with everything it is both an opportunity and a risk.
you have to manage both. we have a social network pleasance, a blog post, we engage it, but you have to balance the risk and reward. tom: i go to your comment about the guardian being huge. they just said, we give up. brendan: do you find twitter valuable as an economist? jeff: i have started tweeting. olivia: answer our twitter question of the day -- does the sharing economy provide good jobs? ♪
tom: good morning everyone. that's why a lot and merkel travel to moscow. brendan: walmart looks to improve its image in china. the aim is to enhance the retailer's reputation after accounting inventory and food safety missteps. according to a company memo, the new senior vice president and corporate affairs officer in china. a full-year loss for mcdonald's japan affiliate. the fast food chain struggled with scandals in asia. 2014 the loss was $186 million, compared with a net income of
$43 million the previous year. same-store sales plunged 35% from a year earlier, the 12th straight month of decline. pope francis says it is example for parents to spank their children. there are conditions. the dignity of the child has to be preserved. i am not big on spiking but i am also not big on preserving dignity. no kidding in the face i can get behind that. he made his comments during his general audience in st. peter's square. the vatican has not elaborated on the remarks. despite repeated request for clarification from thomas kean. tom: images of the hope spanking innocent children. it is a different hope. olivia: look at the cover of usa today. he is going to speak to u.s. lawmakers. the guy that helped broker the deal with cuba. brendan: i'm going to stand on the capital don't and scream like it is the beatles.
-- capitol dome. \ tom: an important conversation as we have jobs day and hour negative interest rates. inflation-adjusted rates. we speak with jeffrey rosenberg of blackrock. you have a wonderful phrase, the desperation of the time. income surrogates. that is where we are. sake retirement, fake securities -- fake retirement. jeff: financial repression, you do not have -- you do not have a 6% cd. you have asset classes that have been used by investors in a world of the zero interest rates. think about dividend paying stocks nlp's, a lot of risk has gone into portfolios because you cannot get income out of safe areas of the bond market. that is a problem, not this year, probably. if you restore interest rates
into the economy. the fed gets off a zero interest rate, a lot of the income surrogates -- tom: when the bill comes due can our viewers and listeners get out in time, or wuill they get crushed? jeff: you cannot wait. if we wait until you report on it, it will be too late. you have to move ahead, before that happens. if we are moving into an environment where yields and the fed has the ability to begin normalization, we will start to think differently about the valuations of these incomes. olivia: bill gross has come out this screaming> jeff: it is part of what's destroying capitalism appeared bond markets are free to price risk. when you talk about negative yields throughout much of developed markets particularly
in europe, those are bond markets no longer functioning the way they are supposed to. not signaling the credit risk of the underlying companies. not playing the role they used to. brendan: alan krueger, help me out putback the professor on the premise that capitalism is being destroyed? alan: it is more the polarization in the economy than what is going on in the financial market. it is not surprising with loose monetary policy you are seeing people taking more risk. we are seeing the u.s. economy recover as a result. i think that the fed is going to telegraph its moves enough in advance that there will be enough of a gradual return to normalization in terms of the pricing in the markets. olivia: alan, i want to keep the conversation going with you. i want to turn to the sharing economy, or the share the crumbs economy. that is the take of robert reich speaking about the impact
of the rise of employees like uber. the number of drivers in the u.s. has swelled to 160,000. alec river co-op for the -- co-op -- how in krueger. are they creating good jobs? alan: the problems the u.s. labor market has been facing occurred long before uber. it goes back three decades. when it comes to uber how is it impacting the economy? their drivers are primarily displacing taxi drivers. from what i can tell uber drivers are paid at least as much as taxi drivers and is providing demand for workers with those types of skills. unlike -- much of the economy, this is increasing demand for workers with middle skills. tom:brendan: there is a throw away
line in the article you authored . how the affordable care act changed the economy for people with part-time work. do we have to change the welfare state if we are going to move to this kind of contract work? alan: changes in the health care system driven apart by the affordable health care act, will make health insurance more affordable, more accessible, easier for people to become entrepreneurs. that will create a lot of opportunities in the u.s. economy. that will generate more people going into types of self-employment types of jobs which have been declining in the u.s. economy over the last couple of decades. olivia: this brings us to our twitter question, does the sharing economy provide good jobs that go provides flexibility which companies enjoy. but will not provide security. second answer, yes, but it kills
upward social mobility. the american dream, without aspiration, the sharing economy built animosity. third answer, it hollows out the middle class and suppresses wage and wealth growth. jeff, what you think the part-time economy means for wage inflation? jeff: alan talked about this a lot. the issues facing a lack of wage growth go beyond uber. they are around globalization and the impact of technology and how that is displacing and changing the labor market. it is not just about the changing economy. new technologies that open technologies, it is about the broader globalization and its impact on wages. brendan: two of those tweets go to the heart of what you did at
the white house, looking at intergenerational income mobility. do you buy that -- that the sharing economy makes it harder to have your children be better off than you were? jeff: the sharing economy is quite broad. that is not -- if you take uber, most of the drivers have another job. that should enable them to live in better neighborhoods, send their children to better schools and could help upward mobility. olivia: an interesting piece from robert wright, i would encourage everybody to check it out on "in these times." it is time for the agenda, where we look at the stories that are shaping the day. tom: this weekend, there was a lot of reading to do. when i look at the agenda, i look at wages and the jobs report. there is a raging debate everyone is certain that wage increases are a lagging indicator. i wonder when we finally get the
wage inflation, where our institutions will be. it will be fascinating. olivia: that coming out at a: 30. -- 8:30. angela merkel due to arrive in a half hour in moscow. they will meet with president putin in the kremlin at 10:30 a.m. eastern time. germany has said they refused to arm the ukrainian forces. the u.s. has indicated they are considering it. very interesting to see if angela merkel can broker some kind of cease-fire. olivia: my agenda is the -- brendan: my agenda is the grammys. it is about what our four and five euros ---year-olds listen to. tom: alan krueger, thank you so much. jeff rosenberg from blackrock thank you so much.
i am matt miller in fort betty liu. less than 30 minutes away from the january jobs report. we have an all-star lineup to help us look at these numbers when they come out. former white house chief economist alan krueger is now at princeton. he will join us, plus mohamed el-erian. we will get the obama administrations take on jobs with tom perez. first, a look at our top stories. germany and france are on a mission to moscow to end the fighting in ukraine. angela merkel and francois hollande will meet with russians president. persons familiar with the matter, merkel will tell putin that russia faces more economic sanctions unless he agrees to help in attacks by pro-russian rebels. in brussels, joe biden described what is at stake in the ukraine. >> if russia cannot