tv Street Smart Bloomberg April 7, 2015 3:00pm-5:01pm EDT
here are the top stories we're watching ahead of the opening bell. informatics is now the biggest leveraged buyout of the year. from europe and the canadian pension plan -- plan investment board are buying the company for 5.3 billion dollars. this has been a target of activist management elliott managed -- activist target for elliott management. drillers idled oil rigs for the 17th straightway -- 17th street we. rand paul running for president 2016. he officially kicked off the campaign in louisville. another story we have been watching this afternoon, the lights are coming back in defeat. they briefly lost power earlier today. going to managing news editor in d.c..
what happened yet so who is still without power. >> all of the main government holding, the justice department and white house who all locked power intermittently them to be back. the little hope our company -- local power company telling us there was a big hit lotion and that since programs riffling through the whole. got a little bit nervous when the lights went off given the fears of any kind of how way. dhs has told us there is no sign of foul play, they think it was just an lotion at this one particular powerplant. alix: interesting, a press briefing by iphone. we do have less than an hour until the lows of trading so we want to get to the breaking news this where scarlet fu is looking at all of the action on the
street. a little bit of a rally going on with the dow. no triple digit yet. >> the rest of the world has come back from trading -- from holiday and sluggish remains -- trading remained sluggish overall. the dow industrial 21% below the 10 day average. even though we are strung together read days of 18, the longest stretch in its week, there is not necessarily a whole lot of conviction behind the buying. everyone is waiting for the start of earnings season tomorrow after trading close. the dollar has resumed its advance. it is stronger. a lot of people saying the selloff last week with overdone. oil prices have reversed course, now building on yesterday's course. shorter-term treasury fell. the two and five-year for instant.
-- for instance. you can see the 10 year yield at one point 8891 -- 1.8891%. earnings season they give everyone a sense of just how much stronger dollar and weaker oil prices hurt corporate profits. alix: a match made in heaven help the strong dollar god. fedex is taking over dutch rival tnt it's rest for 4.4 billion euros or $4.8 billion in an all cash deal. this would significantly it bandits footprint in europe and make it the third strongest player in europe with dhl express and ups. joining us is just acting. -- is justjeff mccracken. >> the way we have been looking
at is for two years they sit around and waited and they rush to get the deal done. the ups deal fell apart jim white 2013. fedex bided their time and watch tnt flow the full apart. they lost 607 euros. in february when they had the result and talking to investors, they really painted another downcast view if you will. more jobs would be cut etc.. that is what prompted fedex to get moving. so i think it is the combination of the struggles with tnt, the dollar, the hope the european economy will finally rebound in the not so distant future. all that came together and finally got a deal done. alix: what does this do for the u.s.?
>> they did not have much in europe. generally speak and they were pretty weak in europe. when ups is trying to do the deal two plus years ago, there was a lot of overlap and that is light regulators ended up blocking it. they saw an opportunity to expand into europe in youth the financial strength to muscle into europe finally. if they were ever going to do it, tnt was probably the best way to do it. alix: does this change the rates? >> i am not affect expert but people would expect them to move relatively slowly. -- fed expert. 3.5 billion dollars less than cash. most of it in europe. they had money to's end. i just got back from florida. alix: that is why he is so refreshed and chatty. moving onto the oil rally, crude
in new york rising to the highest level in almost two months on slipping production according to energy information administration. prices are still well over 50% below last year's peak, but are we at a bottom? colima crossed -- helima croft joins me. do you think we of hit the production -- we have hit peak? >> i think it is really the back half of production. those fears have seem to retrench of its right now. i think the market is breathing a bit of a sigh of relief that we will maybe get out of this by the back half of the year. alix: we looked for the baker hughes number that tells us how many rigs are being cut, which
could lead to further production cuts. what do you need to feel secure that production could be peaking out? >> we see is slipping to 300,000. what the concern is, and i think this is where it we get into a situation where if we get about the 275, do we have uncompleted well that come back on gecko i think that is what the original queasiness is, just when you think he turned the corner, at what point do you reinvent of eyes u.s. production gekko that is where no one is entirely comfortable getting bullish in the market right now. alix: when you look at the price range, what is it? what is the range when you have the wealth that could come online pretty much at a moments notice? >> that is what we are grappling with. we are in unknowing -- unknown territory. we have a view we should seek
recovery. saudi arabia would love that number. what remains to be seen is the w shaved recovery. -- it recovery. the one thing the saudi's are saying is they raised into asia yesterday. they say we see demand picking up. it is not just the u.s. number you need to be watching, you need to be walk -- watching global numbers. 75 point 84 a couple years and then back down to the 50's. alix: osp for the jargon alert, official selling price. >> when you have prices start to retrench, and they started lowering the official selling price. that is why they said the
saudi's will not burn the floor. they will defend market share. now when they are raising the official price, they say did you know something about demand pickup? alix: always great to have you on the show. coming up, looking to invest in the emerging market gekko take a look at iran. the pros and cons of the economy. ♪
market with oil, they could reduce prices by $15. what do you think you? >> it is the speed with which they come back. the question is, what is the speed of recovery? what i tell everyone is it will be a slow return to the market. you have to get a final deal by june 30 and then you have to go through the verification process to make modifications. those have to be verified. then still 6-12 month before sanctions get removed. they say they will be removed immediately. that is a sticking point to a final deal. alix: where you said, do you think the deal actually gets done cap ? >> we were so close to getting a
deal in november. so close last summer, and then there were the sticking points. timing of sanctions relief. what you do about fire weston of the military program gekko what do you do-->> what do you do about the stockpile gekko can make close the gap? alix: what does it mean for the economy what do they have to do to woo back direct foreign investment? >> i love this question. i think it will be tranches coming back. if you look at the bulk of the sanctions, architecture and posed by congress. those are the restrictions on transaction. this is all in his by congress. the president can waiver implementation he cannot repeal it. the restaurant is, which countries will go back and with waivers alone?
i think asian companies will go back in. i think the european companies will sit on the sidelines longer before there is more clear it he. there is a level sanctions no one talks about. a number of state which is nature's, california, new york illinois say you can do business with iran or state entities. what does helpers do in a situation where they go back in and the legislation has not been revealed at the state level there go i think this makes a slow return for european countries. i think asian companies may be quicker back in. talk to diplomats. they said why is no one talking about staying level sanctions to go what does it do it the legislation has not been repealed at the state level? everybody think the repeal process. the contract of russia's
striking where u.s. sanctions have been done by a decade of order so they can be repealed on a dime. alix: this led me to the next point on the middle east, which is yemen. we make light of it because it doesn't have that much oil. the state will never be close. the what is the big deal? >> it is the regional proxy battle. anytime you saudi arabia mobilizing 150,000 troops to their border when you have them farming country where they are trying to roll back a group they say is backed by iran you run the risk of a cold or struggle being a homework. this raises the question about saudi arabia and the gulf allies. alix: how does that change the landscape of the oil community and oil superpowers >> it is not the immediate mechanism.
there are two ways it gets transmitted to oil. saudi arabia has enormous spending commitment. they have gone from being the eight largest defense spending and jumping into the position three times in 2015. they are already having to draw down reserves. they drew the 20 billion in february. this puts more strain on the budget. this puts more strain on the budget. also the arabian peninsula. they have been focused in the past on saudi target, high-level royal, infrastructure. does this give an opening to do more time potentially in saudi arabia? alix: then it becomes more disruptive. after the break, talking about opec saudi arabia and the struggle between the u.s. and saudi arabia when it comes to
alix: here are the top stories we are watching ahead of the closing bell. a rescue operation under way to the china after a chemical plant was rocked by a second explosion in less than two years. a fire and oil leak led to it was in a three tanks in the facility. the agencies six people have been hospitalized. it supplies shall. moody's raising the credit rating for each of the person in more than two years. they cited political stability as improved business environment
expecting the economy to grow by 4.5% this fiscal year. the rating is still sick levels before investment grade. russia says only direct talks with ukraine may change the refusal to join debt restructuring negotiations. you and wants to restructure nearly all of the sovereign debt but russia has refused to join top saying the death was an official a to ukraine under the president. threading is the chief strategist at rbc capital markets. quick question on russia. when deaths ukraine go bankrupt? where does russia go gekko where is -- what is the endgame? >> they are deeply invested in this government succeeding. in russia it stated off the
headlines. there is always the risk. at what point is there a catalyst for things to get worse again? i think everyone is in a holding pattern right now. there is no sense that underlying grievances have been resolved. we have all of these low oil, singling disputes that could affect the oil markets but they have not boiled over yet. alix: i want to get your take is the oil minister said the country will producing shale gas mixture and defended opec think the opec death is not realistic and wrong and they must operate with the cartel to the blaze the market. you are nodding profusely as i read the headline. alix:>> in 1986 and 1998, the saudi insisted non-opec go along.
we got mexico to sign up, russia to end up. even in 1986 the norwegians were like we will slow the rate of growth. they got better opec compliance. i think that has been this audi principle when you have the price decline, they will not bear the burden of adjustment alone. they're looking to see how much of high cost oil production can be put in. someone tell, come on russia, get to the table. alix: if they the question does saudi arabia's hold that title gekko quite? >> i think they made a rational decision going into the opec needing. when russia set up the shut up and said we're not cutting, they had a choice. do cut in november and you keep
u.s. production going gekko are you then going to be in a situation where sick month later you have to cut again? given the reserve a have 780 billion could they be in the situation where they waited six months, 12 months to be in a better market position by pricing out some of the most high cost of production. they are looking at global coming down. looking at it benefits our take place. how much non-opec can be reset? alix: of course june meeting is approaching. number one thing you are looking at >>? >> i think they are looking at us 75.80 rate -- reset. they are confident their demand numbers they say they are using, they believe we will be in a better demand situation that was the u.s. production, offline
alix: the top stories we are watching ahead of the closing bell, president obama taking aim at opponents with the new year deal with iran. he referred directly to what scott walker said say he would prefer it on the first davis resident. he called walker's land a foolish approach. u.s. job opening climbing to a 14 year high of you are. labor department reported the number of positions waiting to be filled climbed to more than 5.1 million. retailers restaurants meeting in a flame opportunities. dupont says the break of plant would be bad business.
the chemical maker says the break up with cost at least 4 billion and would hurt wrote a damaging research. the ceo says that could cut costs as separating high growth like accor ulcer from the more sick cold businesses. we're just 30 minutes until the close of trading. want to go back to our chief markets desk or scarlet fu is looking at the big movers of the session. >> we have to start with gm because it opened the where and pretty much stayed that way. biggest decline in with three-month test canada's government is selling its final stake in the carmaker. selling 73 point million shares. or .6% taken an unregistered lock trade. this will be completed by april 10. i had to go back and look this up. canada and ontario joined the government in joining the restructuring to protect local jobs. they took a combined stake and ontario sotloff -- ontario
sotloff it take two months ago. halliburton and national oilwell varco. i picked these are just for you. berkeley says they are most -- are among the most honorable means to disappointing earnings because the overall first order likely to be ugly. cost reductions have not kept up with pricing pressure following the collapse in oil prices over the past weeks. american breast cut to underperform because of headwinds that will pressure return on equity. this is according to oppenheimer. they say are we estimate for me to come down in an earnings estimate will need to be re-rated lower. none of this good for the share price. alix: thank you. we will check back in with you later in the show. the carnage is counting oil company struggling to day afloat after more than 50% decline in group since june.
who will default first? joining us to discuss is helima croft and rick rieder. such a pleasure to have you here. tell me, how popular is energy junk-bond market right now gekko w? >> we live in a world where everyone has been trying to the yield and portfolios. there is one based on one of 20 to buy the energy space. as you see oil stabilize and the companies, particularly the better already companies will be around for a while. you will see people wanting to underperform engine sees. you will see many come into the space. you take that coupled with orton-60 billion money raised to go into the energy sector. private equity to other forms of capital. money is definitely coming in.
we live in a world where there are not that many opportunities. anytime you think there is an opportunity, money comes in at a pretty good size. alix: where is the danger >>? >> one of the think about the energy is, there was so much financing done. we lived in a world of epic quantitative rates. everyone has been able to put money on the books and fund themselves. you are seeing these that have a higher price point in terms of where the reduction is and we will start to see default. what you are seeing in the market today is a bifurcation. there is almost unlimited bid for higher over the energy companies, and even in the media where we have been adding median quality company. we have not seen that much of a bounce in the ones that have too much leverage.
my guess is that will take a while. >> i am not an equity analyst but the market standpoint, some of us who were more bullish earlier in the year were anticipating we would start to see production come down faster. we have seen this u.s. production that has continued to have of their sentiments. one thing i worry about if you are in oil bowl and believe you should have improving supply, what if you do have more money coming back and what did you do not get enough? and what if the story really is true you will have these half completed well gekko how much? how much do you bring back in? alix: to your point, you keep looking for opportunities, and you say now you're going to the median level energy companies as you want to find the return.
at what point do we say bubble? >> the reason we think monetary policy should adjust going forward is you are seeing so much money continue to come in that you have to be careful, particularly here because so much money wants to go in high heels. energy has been the one place people have stayed underinvested. alix: if they are getting more money, they will keep producing. why not gekko? >> only thing i would say is i think the leverage will be tepid for a while. as you are seeing some of these better companies, you can get fair amount of equity capital. alix: what kind of volatility do you expect to see?
>> either way, i think it is been very well telegraphed. i actually think they should start moving. everybody anticipates they are moving. it is hard to believe there will not be some volatility in the markets. there will be volatility for sure. i do not think the fed moving should create that much stress. i think they showed. alix: what energy are you not touching with a 10 foot pole? >> the energy services sector. certainly you get your arms around the e&p's space where you have a price point where companies are profitable. a bunch of them in the 50-60 range. part of the reason there is a cap oil is they will start producing once you get into the 65 zone. service sector will be tough for a while. alix: i want to say your final word on the biggest risk to the oil market? quite one thing to watch is we
just talked about yemen. -- >> one thing is we just talked about yemen. do you have something hit one of the facilities? the middle east remains so unstable. oil has remained shielded from it. at what point do the oil insecurity story come together? alix: not very optimistic of you. thank you. rick sticking with me for the rest of the hour. coming up next, if you want to get into the dollar trade now is the time to buy. we will break the argument for and against when we return. ♪
what people do not factor is the u.s. has become a u.s. exporter of fuel. the difference is 400 billion per year. so we think the dollar will continue to rally. we think it will happen and more deliberate way than the shock over the past couple of weeks. we do think it will have persistent appreciation for a while. i think the whole world focuses on when the fed moves versus what the ecb is doing. people do not look at the real data underneath it and the impact. it is no doubt policy to virginia is significant, but the trade dynamic is why there is the fundamental underpinning of the dollar doing better. alix: where are the risks? where is the froth? coming up on>> the fed can move.
it is not that scary. everybody knew the fed was going to taper. everyone knows it will lift off whether it is june or september and the economy is doing quite well despite the weaker payroll number. today people are investing where rates are distorted in some places. truly once that starts to normalize, you can have confidence in the investment. let rates normalize. they will not move that far back. that is where we have to get rates more to a normalized level. alix: it is not like we will see them at 5%. regardless, aren't we seeing a distortion into risky assets because rates across the board are too low? >> part of what qe does an easy monetary policy is it doles --
dulls believe it is the system. so it means money runs into a series of acts to get you in yield. today only two ways to get additional you. it will go down this best -- credit spectrum. you make one of those two decisions. the reason i am so adamant is the ecb will keep going until december of next year. china and australia and korea and other parts of the world are going to be easy. rates are not going to back up that much. we just need to let them move of it. i think you will see right drift of the tire. -- you will see rates drift a bit higher. alix: rates in the u.s. or japan >>?
? >> you have to think about your portfolio. we know draghi will keep going for quite some time. while these rates are actively make no sense, they will continue to do well. we like taking the interest rate in europe and think that will continue to do well. places where rates have to be easier because of currencies. places we like to take the rate risk. the u.s. we are a bit more cautious. it is not giving you any real benefit relative to the rescue take on. alix: moore after the break. more on the u.s. economy earning season right around one and what else he likes in the fixed income world. ♪
>> you're the top stories we watching the bell. the largest hedge fund claim 13% because of the bet against the euro. it has dropped 11% against the u.s. dollar in the first three months of the year as the east beeper appears to increase the newest. u.s. regulators are doing will allen over claims he helped to run a ponzi scheme. the sec is saying allen and his partner used it to fill a $7 million shortfall to sell to investors. angela ahrens instructing employees to the website to purchase the new smart watch which can be pre-ordered on friday. the u.s. earnings season is taking shape. if your money is in an energy company, you may want to prepare with pepto-bismol. that is according to gina martin
adams. she adds that other sectors are expected to fare better. she adds by the second half only energy sectors are acted to read the -- to be in the doldrums. joining me is rick rieder. coming up we will feel of strains on the u.s. economy in the back half. what do you think? >> i think that is right. we will go back over the past five years. the second has spent 2.8%. the second and third quarter 280. we think it will see -- we will see this again this year. so we do think the economy picks up. we do think there has been a lot of people wringing their hands about the data flowing. we think there is a lot of transition to a better part of the economy.
we think there has been a significant amount of revisions down. i think a lot of that has been faked in. >> even though we are looking at s&p profit down for the next three quarters, that is unusual. that is usually recession speak. >> there and a number of years where earnings have been good and proper has ground. now we think some of the growth is more attractive in europe and japan where he will see better opportunities going forward. it certainly would not be crazy to have a policy in terms of where u.s. earnings is. better than where the economy has been in the past few years. alix: i have supposed to ask about your golf game how is it? >> getting better. alix: what is your handicap >> 10. getting better. alix: rick rieder joining us.
alix: welcome to our viewers around the globe. you were watching bloomberg television, and this is "street smart."we want to go to scarlet fu at the breaking news . a little bit of steam being lost into the close. >> you still my graphic. i was going to show you this selloff. it is more like an unraveling of the gains we have seen so far today. not very robust but this is what
we have had in past hour as we wound our way down through the trading day. even though it looks like a fairly big gyration, only a 99 point swing. we did not get to triple that it. -- did not get to triple digit. right now a waiting game. we are waiting for guidance on just how much damage the stronger dollar and clash in oil prices had and will have on earnings, sales and profit. we are waiting for more data to confirm the service sector will not get infected by the weakness we see in manufacturing and factories. we are waiting for the fed to determine when liftoff will begin. all of that playing into the mix as investors look at some sort of catalyst. alix: i am joined by carl riccadonna. bloomberg -- bloomberg reporter and had a great strategy research at bank of america merrill lynch.
very finely attuned to the notion. and alix: we're looking at stocks flat on the day. this is giving up a lot of games -- gains. the nasdaq off by seven. a real reversal as we head into the close. for a look at the day's biggest equity movers let's go to scarlet fu at the breaking news desk. it was a puzzling day. scarlet: the deals that took place fedex was one that everyone fixated on. you will remember ups had tried and failed to buy them for $2.2
billion more than what fedex is offering but regulators did not approve. fedex has gotten rid of some of the air transport business in europe. this time around the finances have worsened. the acquirers shares are a sign more m&a is in the pipeline. berkshire hathaway picking up a stake in exalted coding systems. warren buffett continues his buying spree. and this is a big deal $5.3 billion from premierea. alix: it is incredible. you see a lot of mergers. thank you. i'm here with carl lisa, ahead of the strategy research at bank of america. you mentioned it doesn't really
move the market but we have dennis lockhart speak today. he put the summer months on the table saying i would probably be biased towards the july or september dates as opposed to june. i don't think anyone has mentioned july. anyone? carl: i will jump in. the focus has been on the beatings that have press conferences. this puts the june meeting in focus. everyone has looked past the april meeting coming up shortly, and the july meeting janet yellen could change this. we will have a press conference after every meeting. that would be an on risk you could watch out for. alix: for more on these expectations this is in the note you had from bank of america talking about the yield
curve from the five and 30 year. tell us what this does. what am i going to get from this? guest: it is interesting. we had a huge flattening of the curve. if you look at what has happened this year it has stabilized. the curve doesn't seem to be flattening as much. why was it? if you look at any previous hiking cycle, it flattens. now we have stopped with the continued flattening. that has the feel the market is pushing it out. after friday's number we actually have been pushing out the timing further out which is preventing the curve from flattening. and the fact that i don't think the market believes we can decouple in the long run. if 10 year booms the global
yield back draw keeps the long and thin, so it is being driven by the front in. -- front end. the market is very much in the lead here. we are not even pricing to hikes here. we have just been pushing the hike out. the people are nervous around gdp growth. we are tracking 1.4. every economist was looking for 3% growth. alix: what is a bigger risk, the fed waiting too long and inflation picking up dramatically on the backend? or them hiking too soon? guest: it is the latter. they are willing to make things hot. they want to lift off soon. they would believe they are
already too late. maybe financial stability, maybe the fact that it is closing. the markets know this. it is one of the biggest conundrums. where we not seeing inflation. it is going to show up. they should start hiking. the yield curve, the market believes it is going to soon. which is why the curve flattened so much. alix: i want to bring a oil prices and how that plays into the economy. following a sharp decline you can see that oil is struggling to bounce back finding a bottom. what does that mean for the inflation? carl:priya: the market, we have bounced a little bit. you can tell the market knows it. we don't really see inflation.
the fed is predicting july or some point in the second half of next year. what of this oil price decline was more nervousness around global growth rather than a supply? alix: what do you think? carl: a lot of the pass-through has artie come down the pipeline so to speak. we are seeing the impact in the stronger dollar. so that disinflation inflationary story has not fully run its course. with why they have to happen is we have to see the wage pressures. janet yellen dismissed that to some degree. wage pressures are going to be what ultimately drives consumer inflation higher. there are two mechanisms through how this works. one is the cost push impact.
if wages are rising then those prices get passed along to consumers. the other is the demand pull mechanism. workers earning higher wages can can consume more goods. they drive inflation higher. there is a double-edged effect from wage inflation. we are not going to get there until we cross a safe unemployment rate. if we are petering out to 150 per month we can see the decline in the unemployment rate slow as well. it may take us longer. we hit it this year. it is going to be in the second half of the year. alix: people i speak to, the more volatility you have an oil prices and the lack of clarity about what is behind it, and read the real value is, it is not going to play into what people think about the inflation is.
even oil prices necessarily going to give people conviction to go out and double down on inflation. alix: another huge theme is the u.s. dollar. we have seen it fall off in the last few days and that -- is that a signal to fallbuy? we had a forage exchange strategist that said the market is pricing at a very subdued pace of tightening. we disagree. we see it as the perfect opportunity to get into the trade again. we heard the dollar was going to go higher no matter what the fed says. this they trade deficit story. what are we seeing? priya: the dollar can continue to rally. at what point does it in
affect the economy? i could see them start the lift off and then see they can't complete the hiking cycle because completion never picked up. the dollar heads to parity or lower against the euro. carl: a lot of economists have been dismissive of this impact for some time. i think last friday was a real wake-up call. folks stepping back and saying wait a minute, it is not just exporters. it is the domestic economy. we see it impact the job economy and that could create a feedback loop that impacts consumer demand, the broader economy. i think we are entering a new stage where forecasters are going to be more worried about the dollar and you're going to hear more from fed members over the past couple of days from the near fed president. alix: does that sound like you
are saying there is a bigger risk the fed hikes to soon. is that correct? priya: they want to start this year. it is not clear that we get inflation this year. we don't see any signs of it. the dollar continues to strengthen, which will put on downward pressure. they actually are starting to early which is a risk. i think that is what is interesting. yellen has been saying it is normalization. it is this idea that if you are to early, we will stop. that is a different side. we don't know how to trade that. carl: what the fed is trying to do is sell a one and done approach. with evidence in dudley's remarks yesterday and yellen's remarks, you to convince the market you will only do a little and then stop.
if they can't convince the markets and financial conditions will do the work for the fed. alix: it's never going to be over. so sad to say goodbye. don't leave me. thank you so much for joining us. coming up, rand paul makes it official. he will jump into the 2016 presidential race. does he have a shot? can rahm emanuel hang on to his seat? ♪
pre-financial crisis levels. the idea of an expanded military role for japan is more popular in the u.s. than is in japan. reason percent of american respondents say japan should take a more active military role in regional affairs. versus 23% of japanese. the survey was announced between ashton carter and his japanese counterpart. john mccain will run for a sixth term. he will be 80 years old by the time of election day. critics who say he is too old, he says they are wrong. >> i say watch me. take a look at my 18 hour days. take a look at my legislative accomplishments. i'm just getting started. alix: he has more than $3.5 million in cash for the next campaign.
staying in politics, rand paul takes aim at what he is calling the washington machine. he threw his hat into the 2016 presidential ring. he distanced himself from republicans and democrats. rand paul: as i watched our economy collapse, i think what kind of america will our grandchildren see? it seems to me that both parties and the entire political the stem are to blame. -- system are to blame. alix: for insight let's go to louisville. i'm joined by mark halperin. good to see you. what is the biggest distinction between what you heard today and what you heard in 2012? mark: this is a guy who has tried to carve out a different image for himself than any other republican in national life today.
he believes in not just challenging their fellow can party as we heard, but also in challenging a lot of the organizing principles of the republican party in terms of corporations, national security. this is a guy who is trying to make a lot of changes. the old rules prevail he will not be the nominee. alix: what are the chances he could remake them? mark: it's a great question. historically the party has always turned to an establishment front runner, the most electable. there are lots of reasons to think that will happen again. rand paul. short of his goal. on the other hand, if you look around the country, there is a hunger for change. there is anti-establishment sentiments. there are tens of millions of americans who have sympathy with
rand paul. i don't discount his chance particularly because of his strengths in the iowa states. he is strong and part of what because of yaz inherited from his father. alix: part of the fan base is it going to take this lying down. they will launch a campaign against rand paul, calling him week on iran causing him of being weak. what can he expect from his party? alix: make no mistake. they will come after him. his supporters say this means we are strong. on the other hand, hundreds of thousands or more dollars spent trying to defined his image now is a dangerous thing for him. he has to recognize there is more open season on rand paul because of his views on national security that have any other republican in the race. that is a dangerous place.
peter cook has traveled to chicago for the vote. joining me, what is the five there? -- the vibe there? peter: we caught up with the mayor. he was having lunch at one of his favorite place is in chicago. he is not saying anything for granted. it is clear he is fighting for votes even at this late hour. it has been a challenging time. he expected to cruise to reelection with the help of his former boss president obama but he has been challenged by allegations he is too close to the business community, out of touch command that is why he is aces challenge from his own party. garcia has tapped into the populist anger and he was talking as well about the selection to come.
>> polls have been wrong from the beginning. they were wrong as we went into the election. specifically, they are not sampling latinos correctly. they are well understand pulling young voters. peter: that is his argument for while the polls are indicating something that is not going to fly out. they have showing mary manual with a healthy lead -- mayor emanuel with a healthy lead. alix: we have to get some people behind you, it looks a little lonely. thank you for joining us. staying with local governments, california is in the grips of a historic four-year drought. remy has what is striking, it has
been for years. it is not like this happened overnight. there still hasn't been any sort of long-term fix that has been applied. rami: we had been talking about this for decades. a lot of the solutions i have been speaking with experts on don't address the short term. those include things like drought resistant crops, which we have spoken about desalination of the ocean water, which can be done. it is very expensive. interesting point, now that the drought issue has gotten much more severe, they are taking out one of these desalination plants. that is another issue. what other thing is icebergs from the arctic. alix: code them and then melt
them? ramy: how desperately have to be? then there is the energy issue. alix: what about restrictions of water usage? even if i don't take a shower is that going to move the needle russian mark -- needle? ramy: the governor said let's cut our water usage by 25%. that cut only applies to irvine residents. -- urban residents. the other 80% is used by agriculture. we are looking at just a very small impact with this 25%. alix: we will see a lot of cactuses versus palm trees. thank you. coming up, the heart bleed bug
alix: stoxx flatlining today. the extended the winning streak to a third day. what do you have scarlet? scarlet: we have headlines from dow jones. shell is in talks to acquire bg group. shell is of course europe's biggest oil producer. every big energy company has been good with the following plunging oil prices. i wanted to bring you inside to show you the buyer intent profile.
for we can tell you is that shell has made have any five acquisitions historically with $116 billion. $20 billion in north america. if this report is accurate, $116 billion in deals. 75 separate transactions. we will keep you posted. separately, the vendee of french has denied it is looking to acquire sky. that stopped it get a pop in the final hour of trading. you cannot sustain the game. once again, vivendi denying they are looking to acquire sky. lions gate is moving as well
the largest shareholder reducing his stake. his fund management company is selling 10 million shares. even after all this, he will hold more than 41 million shares. i didn't know this, he worked at carl icahn's job. alix: that is why i love scarlet. she knows all this stuff. we want to get you up on the top stories we are watching. the irs hoping 19% fewer criminal investigations in 2014. according to the agency is only because of a decrease in budget and staffing. republicans have cut the irs budget while the agency has assumed the responsibility. the 2015 budget is just shy of $11 million.
the canadian government is selling its stake in general motors. goldman sachs will by its shares . the proceeds will -- apple sales chief impressing on employees to purchase the new smart watch. remember heartbleed, the web security law exposed last year? a new report shows the response is fading. 74% of companies surveyed remain at risk. joining us now -- actually we are not going to talk about this yet. we have to take a quick break. we will be talking about
alix: do the wisconsin in the title game of the ncaa tournament. cbs scored the best ratings in a championship game in 22 years. brad adgate is the director of research for verizon media. what is this amazing power that live sports events have? brad: i think there is a social media components. both the ncaa prior to the soul final four, plus it is life, it is a great matchup, the games were close. i think it wasn't just about kentucky, it is something the
networks are tripping over themselves to get. this deal with turner and cbs expires in 2024. next year it is going to be on cable, the championship game. they are what alternate until the end of the contract. a lot of these events are now going to cable. espn has the champion football game. wimbledon is on cable now. alix: what is the money behind this? how much might cbs make from advertising? how much they have to pay out in the long run? brad: it is a combination pretournament costs $771 million. last year they sold one point one $3 billion in ad revenue. this year and will not 10%. last year -- last night's championship game it was over 1
million and a half. outside of the super bowl and the oscars that is one of the most expensive units in all of television. alix: wiki talking with the power of live tv and how it is an issue for netflix because they don't have access to live tv. brad: 95 percent of live sporting events are watch live. you don't really want to dvr that. that is a big plus. they are willing to pay a premium. alix: speaking of television, we have major shows rolling out this week. what do you think we the most popular, the real eyeball getter? brad: "game of thrones. it has been the most popular show on hbo since the sopranos. the ratings have gone up every season. last year the finale averaged 17
million. when he put in the multiple airings and dvr it averaged 18.6 million viewers. the big event will be the finale of madmen. they sold that differently, finals 400 and $500,000 for a 32nd unit. it is very expensive. it is an end of an era. it is a great show about the industry. they are doing a great job of marketing it. alix: i tried hard to get into it but i do love "game of thrones. what winds up being most important for new shows? is a popularity or critical acclaim? brad: i think it is a little of both. amc certainly was critically acclaimed. if it wasn't for madmen, which preceded breaking bad by one year, though shows may not have
he was getting a deal with espn and turner. you get the live sports and the premium content like "game of thrones. i think they will handle it. there is 30% of the country that has a streaming service. netflix is 36%. some have more like amazon prime and hulu plus. you are seeing an awful lot of announcements. cbs all access we have hbo now, there is talks about showtime
room sharing website airbnb would begin charging a 12% hotel tax in malibu. it is the latest in cities growing taxes. true love sponsored by burger king. burger king will be taking out the wedding tab for a couple named joe berger and ashley king. burger king wedding. you literally can't make this up. joining me now david mitchell davies, burger king wedding what the thing about that? do you love that? david: it is a story only the internet good have created.
brett: it is using social media to reach consumers. alix: you can't-eight. if they eat at mcdonald's it is all over. in all seriousness, you are joining us because the webby awards were announced today. this is the oscars of the internet. who were the big names? alix: we announced the nominees today. we had 13,000 entries. competition was fierce. we look at video, websites, social mobile. in the video categories funny or die, between two ferns with zach galifianakis and the president. vice was a big winner.
perennial favorite like college humor and google doing well. a good mixed of new and size that have been around for a while. alix: i was curious to see hbo on the list. david: they have an incredible on-demand service. strictly at the straight over the top surface. they get a nomination for that. they do a lot of stuff online which is original spinoffs of shows. it depends on what categories. they have been an innovator in the space. alix: brad, when you look at advertisers competing for advertisers is online a serious competitor? brad: absolutely. they are siphoning off more dollars from traditional media. the key is who is watching? advertisers are obsessed with
millenials. 42% are under the age of 35 years old. to a lot of that is a key demographic. we are seeing more and more advertising dollars being migrating to online video. over $6 billion this year. there are some hefty changes being spent thereby advertisers. alix: what makes a star? everyone wants to be a star. how does a video make it? david: there are different audiences. give tyler -- you have tyler oakley, incredible audiences. grayson has a show that premiered last week. that is a totally different type of thing than a brand trying to launch a viral video for an advertising campaign. you have things like a girl
campaign, huge viral hit. millions of views. you have world's toughest job 25 million views on youtube. those are for brands. these you to people don't just have one viral hit but have a whole channel, every week they are doing 2-5,000,000 views. it is talent, obviously. the funny stuff does well and the touching stuff does well. alix: kittens and babies and dogs. brass, how has the internet changed tv programming? when you take a look at late night. brent: if you look at the late-night shows they are designed for watching content the next day. they are six minutes long. mvc said that 70% of jimmy fallon viewing is online. the media for that show in the
50's, people watching online, it is much younger. you look at james cordon, his is the first week of his show with tom hanks and mariah carey the number of hits were exponentially higher than what had been. these guys are moving into these late-night shows, they have to have a second screen presence. we are seeing more colbert he has a strong second screen presence. they have youtube channels. this is designed to have younger viewers. [no audio]
alix: from amazon to etsy e-commerce has been huge. online art sales account for $3.6 billion last year. joining me to discuss, the ceo and cofounder of online auction site paddle eight. you're going to be listing in crane's 40 under 40. that is a huge deal. guest: it is an honor to be included. we are the world's leading online auction house.
bring the world collectors luxury design from around the world. everything from jewelry, books accessories, to the latest wu-tang album. the idea is to occupy the middle market where the mass market doesn't. between those two points of the massive middle market being serviced by reasonable auction houses in an efficient manner. it is cumbersome and expensive. you'd rather not do it. alix: have you siphoned off? guest: it is a huge valuation of the fact that art does sell online.
four years ago when we started people asked us with that online, -- if art sells online. they are working on a distribution plant line -- platform. we are looking at creating an online auction house. seeing how technology can cut the cost across the value chain by 58%. we take every hard cost out of the system. we do remote consignments. we automate the marketing of the work. we have hundreds of thousands of collectors. we are able to target them specifically for certain works. that takes the marketing costs out of the platform. the film is also automated. you click and a link like you would on any other e-commerce site and you are able to fill the transaction.
alix: you also have an iphone app. tell me about the auction land moving to mobile. guest: we have 20% of our bids on mobile. what has been most interesting is knowing the fact that people are willing to buy on the app but they are willing to sell using the app. it includes the ability to take a picture of something on your wall, and send it to us for a free auction estimates. so many people have started using that. people using mobile devices just to buy, but to sell. alix: what is the craziest thing you have sold? guest: kurt cobain's credit card. $27,000. they were bidding furiously. alix: that is crazy. who knew? thank you. it was nice to have you.