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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  May 10, 2015 11:00pm-12:01am EDT

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roperties. the challenges hyping up in china. and is it time to abandoned athens? the german chancellor's under growing pressure to give up on greece. also coming up, what slowed out? china's superrich are enjoying the highlights on the high seas. all of that in more, on asia edge. >> i have been following this across asia today. japan, 1.3% in the morning session. 250 points rallied. if you look at volumes, we are 70% higher. in australia, we are one third of 1%. interesting note from goldman sachs saying oil prices have been on the up for week -- goldman says this presents investors a window.
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the bank thinks commodity prices will fall. fundamentals will become cyclical, nothing has changed and supply is still on the way up. let's have a quick look at -- largely unchanged. we are up, though. it is still relatively good as we had into the afternoon. >> disappointing trade numbers in the slump in property all forced policymakers to step in for a third time. pboc says there are plenty of tools available if more action is needed. let's bring in christine. christine, this wasn't a surprise. reporter: it was pretty much in line with what analysts were
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expecting. this is an likely to be the last rate cut we see this year. we have to look at chinese monetary policy as the whole package. bank reserve ratios -- and they have been injecting liquidity into banks. another way to basically shore up economic activity. the last rate cut was 100 basis points. 25 basis points is relatively modest. citigroup says another 50 basis points will be cut this year. bloomberg economist are looking for race to go down again in the third quarter if this trend continues. according to market news international, the central bank says there will be no quantitative easing programs. any kind of fiscal move the
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government may do indirectly through policy rather than through i direct stimulus package. the real issue is, what is the government going to do about the massive debt at the local government level? which, essentially, is blocking any real movement forward even with more monetary easing and more liquidity's trade with the be some sort of package? is that we will be watching. >> china has been a topic of discussion with our guests all morning. jpmorgan says the rate cut is positive for the market. >> these actions are good for the market. we continue to view it as good news for the market. with these rate cuts we can expect pboc -- 25 point cut is
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something we were expecting probably later than today we are expecting for june. anchor: china faces a dilemma when it comes to debt. >> a tricky trade-off, right? we came into this mess by having mispriced credit and too much money to too many developers building too much stuff and now they want to make sure monetary conditions don't get too tight but they don't want to reflate the economy with another debt boom. anchor: when it comes to stocks china still looks cheap. >> yes, we are more expensive than historically in the mainland, but ma by the same margin as elsewhere in asia. so, primitive terms, we are still offering value. i think it will continue to move
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higher as policymakers ensure that growth picks up. some of the liquidity that is cheaper now will certainly look to the equity markets, the policy market hope that the cut will stimulate action well economic activity. anchor: and that is the word from asia on china. the next few hours could prove crucial for greece bailout talks continue with creditors in brussels. and chesler angela merkel is under pressure to cut athens lose. >> finance ministers meeting again in brussels. tomorrow, the payment of $863 million in another payment on july 20. let's not even think about july right now. angela merkel facing pressure putting pressure on greece. she is being pulled in two directions because some members of her own party say -- like greece fail, let it exit the
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euro, it may actually be good for greece and the hero. her view all along has been greece should stay in the euro. these naysayers if you will rating there, set a difficult time because now is when the maximum leverage needs to be applied at this meeting. it is not clear whether the monday meeting in brussels well actually be to an agreement. you have some of the key figures saying it will not happen and more key is on tuesday -- if they miss this payment to the imf, the ecb may tighten liquidity and that could have a very drastic consequence on the economy of greece. >> thank you. in other news, a spending spree set to continue, the investment arm of china's closely held conglomerate set to sell $1 billion worth of shares to help fund more m&a.
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fosun president says they will invest in more european and american insurers. in hong kong, the richest man is looking to singapore to help finalize his multibillion-dollar push to create britain's biggest wireless carrier. he is selling a stake in a stake in the merger of hutchinson and oh you to u.k.. the deal has attracted investors in canada and the uae which will help ease financial strains and keep down debt. the latest chinese company to do without -- two default -- amid growing since earns with china's credit market. they miss the credit deadline to pay interest. last month, they also default it on debt.
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tumble slump and plunge, toshiba is having a hard time in tokyo today after withdrawing its earnings forecast over improper accounting. we are joined in tokyo. what is going on at toshiba? reporter: a plunge indeed. the shares have fallen 17% in tokyo this morning. this is fall that from the company's accounting which they launched on april 3. at that time they simply said that some other construction projects might have used improper accounting. on friday, suddenly they have withdrawn their forecast. mixed their dividend and said that they might have to restate earnings for fiscal year going back to 2013. anchor: here is the thing. the lack of information itself is troubling. how bad do you think this could be? reporter: that's right.
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the company hasn't been very clear on which projects were affected or, specifically, which clients might suffer. we only know that it is their power systems and social infrastructure businesses which sprawling operations that include everything from air traffic controllers into hydroelectric dams. those two businesses themselves account for about 11% of the operating profit so the damage is potentially is significant. the company is reporting earnings next month and hopefully, we both find out more. anchor: hopefully. thank you so much. coming up, a sharp job for another electronic giant in tokyo, a look at why investors are so concerned. up next, they have been on a roll will be discussing the prospects for chinese stocks and whether we are seeing signs of a bubble beginning to deflate. you are watching asia edge. ♪
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yvonne: stories making headlines around the world. china and russia have strength and energy ties, signing a range of agreements in moscow. the chinese president was in russia to attend ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary marking the end of world war ii. russia wants to expand relations with china after europe soured over the conflict in ukraine. they agreed to increase gas supplies from siberia to china but did not sign any deals on oil delivery. the king of thailand has returned home after more than seven months in hospital. the world's longest reigning monarch is recuperating at his seaside palace in phnom penh. although he is a constitutional monarch with no former political role, the 87-year-old king is revered across thailand and is regarded as the country's sole unifying figure and so, his near disappearance from public life has coincided with a decade of
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social instability. and boats carrying about 500 refugees from bangladesh and myanmar -- 5000 more migrants remain stranded. muslims of left a trip to boats were attended by people smugglers. activists say another 7000-8000 people are still at sea. a cracked and on human trafficking by china and malaysia has prevented them from being able to land. back to the top story today this hour, all day really, joining me is zeb. -- he is responsible for $3.5 million -- not too bad. your clients are probably celebrating the fact that especially with his rate cut, we saw a little bit of pullback from chinese equities. that put a temper on the celebrations. guest: 25 basis points was
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widely expected. i spent a lot of time in shanghai last week going back and forth to beijing and thinks have softened on the ground in asia, particularly in china. i would've thought more interest rates cuts. i expect a lot more liquidity coming through in terms of the educational tools that the pdc has of the bowman and i expect a former liquidity to come into the market than people expect. >> so, more to come? guest: moore to come. >> speaking of coming -- is a time to start looking -- alisa this year -- incident broke -- [indiscernible] guest: nonetheless, india and china are they key focus
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companies when it comes to emerging markets. in india, the opposite has occurred. you see the market rallying last year on the back of positive sentiment, but corporate entities have not come through. the sentiment is way ahead of the fundamentals and reality, when china is the opposite. you know, china is negative sentiment and out slowly, some positive sentiment coming through. meanwhile, the last two years in china being very solid. so, two opposites on the spectrum in terms of china and india. >> an interesting observation. >> talk about how to find metals and -- with the stock rally just doesn't really add up quite a bit, but you talk about this and the left program is huge but the -- we haven't seen a much response a reaction to that so far. how can they get the movie again? guest: that is a great question. what we are seeing with the banks is, they don't want to buy it. the local government is about --
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conversions toward the treasury yield, why would you buy? a lot of cheap liquidity, that targets the banks with extremely low cost of funding. rrr would give the banks more liquidity, as well. banks do not want to buy it and essentially, the same risk for half the yield. unless they -- if you look at the local government, they are the key in terms of the growth of the economy going forward. it is maybe i think a catch 22 or an ironic situation but nonetheless, look for more liquidity and a lot of it and cheap liquidity to the pboc to the bank. >> i did a story on this last week on the switch from the musical bond market. i got a lot of tweets act saying, the switch to the b missable bond market necessarily will not increase transparency
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or confidence. guest: it will be good for the provinces. if you say there is one trillion -- it would save about 40 billion rmb in terms of the interest cost. the financing cost side of things -- essentially, it is a debt squad. let's not they carried away. the only other implication that is it positive for the banks, it is a better thing for the banks in terms of their capital. in terms of the asset yield equation, it is not a huge positive. you need to look at the full local government to come through and also from the ministry of finance, who knows what the total number is? 22 trillion, i don't know. >> various provinces reporting -- >> that is what the lack of transparency is. the last supper we saw was 7.8
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trillion back in 2014. we need to see that number before -- you guys are talking about municipal bonds. >> the other big story is greece. >> what you think is going to happen? [laughter] >> i am not sure. the only implication i can say is for asia but nonetheless, i think the focus will be back on china in terms of their debt issues. more so also then maybe the rate is, i've event has gotten on topic as well. >> are people over it? that kind of feeling in the marketplace? >> i think most of it is factored in. i think markets respond more -- domestically here in asia to specifically china, and the markets will continue to move once people work out how much liquidity is actually needed and some people are saying over 4 trillion rmb might be under and a left or slo or him at the required this year, i actually think it will need to be more. that's how things are so tough
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and china at the moment, i think we are going to have former liquidity that expected, and i think that is going to take the topics away from greece and the fed -- >> i wonder how much attention you are paying the chinese president's visit to russia. i mean, russia needs a lot of friends. china can do with russia or without, doesn't matter, trying to do a good guest feel before they sign for any crude oil. >> the deal is in place for a stake in oil, but they haven't signed -- >> yeah -- >> best actor anything for you in terms of strategy for asia? >> not necessarily for russia but definitely the oil price, because i think chains in china will be worse if the price is still high. i think across asia as well, you have malaysia -- the fact is, even when the oil price is low i take it goes to show that things are far worse on the ground in china that people
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actually expect. so, when it comes to russia, not sure what so -- i will wait for them -- i will wait to see what news comes through. >> it is interesting. also, military partnerships, as well between russia and china. >> and want to ask you about -- we had that secondary placement last week talk that tech giants are moving in, how significant is this? >> will the lessee by the fourth quarter -- what we will see by the fourth quarter is -- you saw some comments from the health sector in terms of health care pension reform, that kind of thing, that is going to become significant going forward. once you appreciate the tax status, that is number one. that is significant, because insurance and will sit there and play its part as china becomes a limited liability country and insurance is very, very important to have that part.
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the other side of the things is the penetration rates. they are expected to be 5% to 2020. if you look at life insurance, it is below 2% currently. you have got growth from the crc , or centrally from the state council where could insurance is a hugely positive sector going forward with significant towering behind it. this is where those guys have seen this company and said well, we like the sector -- >> good tailwind for that sector, but less so for the smart phone sector. thank you so much for joining us. coming up, wrong numbers, how demand for smartphones is starting to rain in china. we put front for the sales figures when asia edge can pretend news. -- asia edge continues. ♪
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anchor: the market is actually contracting according to findings. what rate of contractionary talking about? reporter: about 4%. it is still a fair number of phones.
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it is pretty significant. you can see 2013. we are in negative figures. trying to persuade people still hanging on to candy bar phones. anchor: is that what you call it? candy bar phones. reporter: -- to move into the smartphone market. apple is at the top of the list. the iphone 6 helped the chinese market. now it is apple because of those phones. matching samsung's market. samsung suffering languishing in
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fourth place. struggling to keep its market share. apple probably holding on. android users moving into iphone platforms. anchor: that is what katie was saying. a lot of migration from android to the iphone. there he aspirational. reporter: even though it is more expensive. anchor: thank you. we are looking forward to the afternoon. the latest on japan after this break. ♪
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anchor: the top stories this hour. toshiba plunges after withdrawing and earnings forecast over improper accounting. several infrastructure projects have understated their cost. toshiba says it may have to revise its earnings for last year and earlier and has brought in a third-party committee for this investigation. euros in finance ministers meet in brussels and hours before greece has to pay it hundred $40 million to the imf. athens needs to show some form
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of progress to persuade them to maintain the flow of emergency funding. german chancellor angela merkel is set to be under growing pressure from within her own party to give up on greece and allow it to leave the euro. fears of verizon corporate debt and the property slump have prompted china to cut interest rates for the third time in six months. the pboc reduced rates by one quarter of a percentage point and raised in the limit on what things can offer savers. inflation remains subdued in april while imports and exports both fell. despite the latest -- from the pboc, my next guest is not as negative as most other analysts. goldman sachs senior china economist who is also bloomberg's top-rated china forecaster, very good to see you. when you think of how china's economy last year, a lot of buzz as it was slowing down, at that point in time last year, in march, you said it would draw he said it would rebound in you've aright.
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what do you think this time around? guest: i think the situation this year is quite similar in a sense that it happened at the beginning of the year but then the government is starting to loop solvency of monetary fiscal and means of loosening those policies tend to work very effectively in the short-term. and also, the one q growth tends to be hit seasonally by the heightened anticorruption campaign and as to q has smaller share, the drag from that campaign tends to become smaller. and on top of that, the united states global growth and general was pretty weak at the beginning of last year, and again it is the situation now. in that sense, the all three drivers of demand growth will become more positive in -- it wishes to some sequential acceleration whether we get to the acceleration in gdp growth is is not clear because we are
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busily comparing which sequential rebound is bigger. anchor: well and that is it isn't that? how do you view the third cut in six months here? is it an addiction to the stimulus measures and whether or not these measures can sustain itself for more stabilize growth? guest: i think the cutting is not cutting but the pace of cutting has not been aggressive enough in the sense as -- [indiscernible] until very recently, interest rates have gone up and that is not helpful to support the economy. one positive development which i think is actually even more important -- to around 2% now. the low cost of financing will be very important if the
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government wants to loosen policies in using fiscal tools. because having 5% just doesn't help if you want to ensure a lot of debt anchor: -- curious from all of us really is how you regard chinese data, are you starting to look at different sets of data? how reliable are the main data sets from china and how does is effective guest: ? -- how does this affect your forecast? guest: we tend to pay less attention to things like sci and retail sales the former group tends to be a lot more reliable than the latter group. a lot of people now are saying that china's gdp is overstated and the real gross level is much lower. that may or may not be true but judging from historical data one thing we can say is the degree of losing is not more
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than before. i.e., given the set of data on ip, electricity etc., this level of gdp that the government just reported is actually what we should be expecting especially given this formal refound in the domestic equity market which tends to make a direct contribution to gdp growth. anchor: well, and we have seen it really rise here. how far do you think this rally has to go in terms of supporting china's economy? is this going to be one of the effective tools that can prop up the economy for china? guest: i think the government is fairly effective in terms of posting short-term growth. what it is not -- what it is less good at is posting growth without increasing leverage ratio. and that is something they need to deal with. and this is why i think the government has turned to a more positive stance on the overall financial market -- >> right --
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>> because in real life, it has switched from a debt financing to equity financing if we want to generate anchor: a more sustainable recovery in the economy. anchor:yes. where do you think china is going to go from here? more fiscal policy moves to match the monetary ones we have seen over the weekend? guest: yes. i think so. i think he always step of the issue of local government -- i think they will also the front loads with expenditure within the year and better use of the existing fiscal deposits that we have a commercial and central-bank. and that leads to some positive fiscal impulse and that actually requires a monetary policy to fail commodities, so i think the mate -- the next page of policy trump is likely to be a cut and we think it is probably going to happen and early third quarter and that probably will be followed up by another benchmark -- a strong tendency for the government to use -- on top of
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that investors should pay more attention to some of the nonmerit -- nonmonetary, non-fiscal tools. those are tools they sleep essential government putting pressure on the wood level government officials to act more to support the economy. and that important -- that importance in an economy -- anchor: very quickly then, you, yes or no -- guest: yes. anchor: they're eager to speak with you. from beijing, goldman sachs
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senior china economist. let's get the latest on the markets right now. david? david: i am watching shanghai we are at 4255 right now. but it want to mention is a great piece on i recommend that you read it. it is called -- the mystery hour of the chinese stock market. we are less than two hours away from that. that happened between 13:20 -- 1:20 in the afternoon all the way to about 2:20. what happens during the time? 19 out of that -- the index actually went us. it in other ways if you combine everything, all the losses -- all the gains during this time over the last 30 sessions, we are talking 360 points in the red. that is typically it suddenly plunges. what is the theory behind this? we have two competing theories. very rational, i would say.
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large chinese institutions are probably choosing that time to place these orders as they gradually balance portfolios. foreign investors may be reducing their position toward the latter and of the trading session. when europe starts to open up -- fairly interesting, i recommend that you read it. let the end quickly on what sock we have been following all morning as it is having its worst day on record. we are talking about shares of sharp. i would just say, ouch. worst day since 1974. there we go. back to you. anchor: let's get more on the ouch move for sharp. let's head over to japan. what is behind this record fall?
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reporter: the company made an announcement this morning that it is considering issuing preferred stock. some local newspapers reporting that capital cuts move the amount to 99%. it be a significant cut. this is only three days away from the company announcing a new midterm plan, which the company has been saying repeatedly that there will be drastic restructured come. anchor: no doubt. investors reacting. how would this affect sharp's investors in? reporter: as you have said, the share has fallen to the lowest point since 1974. it hasn't quite bad news for existing shareholders.
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if you think of just putting the capital it will eliminate retained losses on the balance sheet and you make the company easier to pay dividends again. the problem is that it is issuing preferred stock at the same time. we have talked to sources and banks about the 200 billion preferred shares. this would have devolution risks -- dilution risks. this is bad news to existing shareholders. anchor: how would the capital cut affect sharp? reporter: capital cuts itself, as i said, would eliminate loss,
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retained loss on balance sheets and make it easier to pay dividends. others think that would benefit sharp. sharp will be able -- you will have tax benefits. it means there will be easier profitability. anchor: thank you for joining us. coming up next, when good neighbors become good friends. russia and china's special relationship when we return. ♪
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angie: the charlie president has wrapped up his swing through russia with new guest deals signed with moscow. we have stephen engle on all of the.
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is it a good deal for russia or china? stephen: pressure leads the alliance, and chinese -- china needs the energy assets. what we got over the weekend with xi jinping in moscow china extending a strategic partnership for five years been agreed on the daily gas delivery volumes and pipeline entry into china. there is also the power of siberia and volume. basically, crossing the t's on the various pipeline deals. no deal on the shipment of oil to china. even though there was a 10% stake that cnp took in one of the largest oilfields in russia.
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that may down the pipeline, if you will. angie: it is interesting it is a dedicated pipeline to china. that deal is very much in play. but maybe china has the upper hand. stephen: there are some price issues. we will see. angie: the two did meet for the 70th anniversary of world war ii. what do they have to say about that? stephen: it is significant in that there were the two gentleman, moscow inviting the other allies from 70 years ago, the u.s. and u.k.. those leaders respectfully decline the invitation. it was 70 years ago on may 9 in moscow that they celebrate the victory over the nazis in world war ii. this was a chance for the leaders to show solidarity with each other. putin was quoted as saying that
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these countries suffer the most in world war ii, 45 million people lost their lives between those countries alone out of the 60 million that died during world war ii. angie: thank you, stephen. checking headlines around the world, yemen shiite rebels have agreed to a cease-fire tuesday night to allow aid deliveries. saudi arabia which a bombing campaign against the rebels, who are in control the capital. saudis stepped up airstrikes over the weekend, including what the u.n. calls indiscriminate bombing of northern strongholds. north korea says it successfully tested a submarine launched ballistic missile. the state new generations -- news agency says it meets all military requirements. pyongyang threatened to attack
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south korean warships after saying they entered north korean waters several times recently. the borders were set by the u.s. after the korean war. super typhoon nuell as made landfall in the philippines with winds up to 220 kilometers an hour. the category 5 storm crossed the main island on saturday night. several thousand people were moved from their homes as a precaution. it is expect to head north, bringing heavy rain to taiwan and southern japan. australia has said it will not take sides in the territorial dispute at sea. julie bishop told bloomberg she has urged china and japan to settle claims peacefully and not put trade under threat. >> do not take sides in these disputes.
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what we do plead with countries is to negotiate peacefully any maritime plans they have. our interest is to ensure the seas are free for navigation. the important trade routes through the indian ocean and to the north. we are keen to ensure that countries settle disputes peacefully. >> what about the great wall of sand? do think that's too much? >> it's an interesting term. i'm sure there will be other descriptions. but i spoke to japanese and chinese leadership and urged that there bps full negotiations and neither side take action that will escalate conflict. this is potentially the most prosperous region in the world. we want to keep it that way. >> the philippines say china is radio toward philippine planes
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way in south china airspace. to think the prospect of another air zone is a real risk? >> eurozone countries have been discussing this. i believe i made my position quite plain to china, that they would be deeply concerned if they were to impose in arizona over the south china sea. australia made its position plane when such a zone was declared over the china sea. >> came to the position of foreign minister as islamic state was emerging as a serious threat to world stability. have you been surprised at their sudden rise? you consider it the greatest threat to global peace? >> i see it as the greatest national threat australia faces. in my travel overseas, europe or the united states, wherever i travel, the issue of isis is raised as a serious threat.
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i see the ideology as the most poisonous, barbaric ideology we have seen since the second world war. it is a significant threat when you think about 80 or 90 countries claiming their citizens are taking part in the conflict in iraq and syria on behalf of isis. it is global, very complex, very dangerous. we are taking it exceedingly seriously and providing resources and support to security and law enforcement and intelligence agencies so we can starve these terrorist organizations funds. this has been a global response. angie: you can get more on that interview and all the top stories plus watch us live wherever you are by downloading the bloomberg app to your mobile devices. coming up, a slowdown for china
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on the water. after the break, how yacht fires are enjoying a highlight on the high seas. ♪
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angie: softbank looks likely to defeat profit forecast. the company likely had an operating profit of $8 billion, saw -- topping the target of $7 billion from november. google has opened its first campus for startups in asia. the campus is located in the gangnam neighborhood. google cited korea's flourishing startup scene. that has similar sites in london
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and tel aviv. there seems to be no such thing as austerity in china. yacht makers for italy are majority-owned by chinese companies. chinese days are increasingly influencing design. ♪ david: many of china's new uber-wealthy are living it up, buying yachts tailor-made for chinese tastes. you would think during the corruption crackdowns, ostentatious displays of wealth would be kept below deck. not so. >> we are mostly concentrating our efforts to private owners. our clients are entrepreneurs. people which have been working very hard in life.
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they made a fortune in the recent years. david: because chinese super yacht owners tend to be younger than those in the west, design changes were needed to suit age and cultural differences. >> they do not spend hours cooking. the move to the galley down so this part is much longer and bigger. we expanded the sofas to welcome a lot of people. david: because most chinese buyers are not into cruising some of the berths are smaller than the average. the double bed is not too bad. this is the master suite probably about the average size of your hong kong apartment. they want more room for entertainment. >> instead of a lot of living rooms, we modified the master
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cabin to a multi functional room. it could be a media room. biggest problem in a boat is the feeling of not enough space. stephen: china is creating more space for super yachts with marinas throughout the pearl river delta and up-and-down the chinese coastline. >> in your up -- europe, you can freely move from one place to the other. in china, it is just beginning. stephen: so is the anticorruption campaign. there is an old saying in boating -- red sky at mooring, sailors take warning. angie: the avengers are still winning the battle of the box office. they overpower their rivals in north america for a second weekend, raking in more than $77 million. it is the second-biggest debut ever. but the film may face competition.
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mad max and pitch perfect 2 are set to hit theaters next week. that is it for us from asia. ♪
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