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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  June 1, 2015 1:00am-3:01am EDT

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mark: that output stabilizing. cleaning up local government finances. manus: the bell tolls for your. -- europe. anna: banks look into transactions linked to payments. they expect further criminal
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charges in the corruption probe. mark: welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. anna: i'm anna edwards. manus: i'm manus cranny. the vote hits prime minister against a populist anti-immigration policies and a divided center-right. we have got the analysis. anna: 6:00 in london. let's head to china. factory orders stabilizing. suggests the monetary easing could be questioning the economy. let's get more from stephen engle. good morning. reasons for optimism perhaps? stephen: there is.
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it is lifting the chinese stock market today. the shanghai composite index up some 2%. let's start with the pmi data. the latest manufacturing data shows that slow down may have bottomed out. that interest rate cut are starting to work into the real economy. the reading was 50.2. it is not a robust expansion. it is only slightly better than 50.1. within the pmi, we encouraging signs. output. new orders. new jobs. it indicates growth is stabilizing. the market is reacting to that. a separate pmi represented mostly private enterprise was also improved, but is still in contraction territory at 49.2.
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encouraging signs. anna: those pmi numbers are around 50. what about this other story you look at the local bond to swap program? stephen: this is extremely important to the reform agenda and getting the mountains of debt off the books. the risky debts off the books. people familiar with what policy makers are doing our they're are considering plans to double the local bond swap program. china is try to clean up the shaky borrowing. phase two could be expanded up to $2 trillion yuan. what does this mean? basically local governments took on a record amount of borrowing the best couple of years to fund a glut of investment projects thus gotten them into trouble.
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other debt servicing burden is huge. complex what program includes trying to induce banks to buy these newer longer maturity lower rate bonds and reducing risk of cleaning up the overleveraged problem at the municipal level quicker. that is encouraging for investors. that is why stop markets are increasing. perhaps they could get this going quicker. anna: stephen, thank you. stephen engle there reporting on that chinese store. mark: lashing out at creditors for their absurd demands but institutions are showing no signs of softening conditions to release more money. let's get more with hans nichols in the studio. it morning. hans: thank you. good morning.
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the one that was rational and could potentially cut eight deal, hopes were -- a deal, hopes were dashed. hopefully we could read a quote for you. it gives you a sense of how trapped he seems to be with the lack of agreement. it is not due to the supposed in copperheads of the greek stance. it is due to the existence of certain institutional actors on submitting observed -- absurd proposals and despite a total indifference to the recent democratic choice of the greek people. certain institutional actors -- read: the imf. i think european partners are ready to cut a deal. they don't think the imf is there. yet the line from article we have had is that everyone is on the same page. if you're looking for optimism
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is there is a phone call from last night. everyone discovers it as positive. but no one comes out saying it was negative. [laughter] manus: essays to be the point. every time there is a lack of agreement, he goes to the mom and pop of europe to get this grandiosity. that is in many ways where the -- hans: if there is one thing we know about angela merkel, she likes process should she likes going through formal channels. maybe we will have something. no. this has to come through this intuitions. you need the dutch finance minister to be in the talks. anna: so much for the conversations held on the sidelines. what about the banking sector in greece? how are they clinging it? hans: five minutes to midnight.
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there is a concern. you saw the last couple of months about 5 billion leaving. another set 800 million has left in the last two days. using great pressure. last week, ecb did not extend or increase liquidity. they are playing hardball as well. there may be a snap meeting in berlin. mark: thanks. see you later. -- manus: thanks, hans. see later. the list of targets of officials are for countries that push for sections against russia last year. good morning to you. who is russia targeting? it makes for an interesting read.
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jones: yes. you might be the most prominent one on it. it is mostly the biggest numbers are from poland, there are nine britons on the list as well, including -- it seems that russia is trying to target the people who have criticized a russia, the one to call for sanctions after russia annexed crimea last year. they are responding to similar sanctions that that eu has imposed on russia as part of that appeared of those engines include asset freezes and travel bans on russian officials from the eu. manus: what has a reaction been? is it grandstanding? what is the overall reaction? jones: it seems a lot of people are proud that they are on this list. they have gone on twitter and said they take it as a badge of
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honor to be designated in such a way. but for the eu, they say there's no legal basis for this list. the russians are still technically keeping it confidential. they say it is not to be published, but they had given it to the eu so they could plan their travels and they don't get stopped at the border. what happened if a german official was stopped and dad axis into russia? this has happened several times in recent months -- and denied access into russia question might this has happened several times in recent months -- denied access into russia? this has happened several times in recent months. the eu says it is an arbitrary and unjustified list. manus: what do you think this might mean for sanctions? for the eu with russia. jones: right. from the eu side, they have said clearly over and over that the
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agreement is the basis for any change in the sanctions against russia. the eu program of sanctions comes up for review in july. it looks like they are going to renew it. we don't have actual confirmation of that yet. it looks clear that will happen. this list that we have is not going to help. it is not going to appease the europeans in any way. manus: jones, thank you. stay with us. we will be speaking to michael fuchs. he is one of angela merkel's key allies. that is live at 10:30 a.m. london time. anna: cap stores at this hour -- three u.s. by programs have expired over legislation to renew them. it is a first time since the 9/11 attacks that intelligence
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and agencies cannot initiate the use of these tools to monitor communications of suspected terrorists or seize records. the senate is expected to vote on wednesday on passing the bill. anna: the results of the hi and local election are due today best italian -- the results of the local italian election are due today. anna: a blanket ban will be imposed on smoking in public places in beijing did a cover's workplaces, schools, hotels, public transport, and tourist spots. it will pose a fine on smokers refusing to comply. it is a first time a lot will target businesses that tolerate tobacco use. you can find out more on that story and many more at bloomberg.com/europe. mark: and join the conversation on twitter.
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this is where you will find us. anna is back. welcome back. anna: thank you. mark: manus is still here. i think i am here. i am physically. anna: we will confirm where you are mentally. manus: another bit of coverage. coming up we will talk about -- greece? the creditors? hemingway? we have got it all on "countdown." ♪
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mark: a new set of challenges for greece. despite a constructive call yesterday between the greek pm and french and german leaders there is no clear sign of an agreement to release more money to prop up the economy. there is one deadline that cannot be missed. the end of june deadline. sarah: we think it is written in concrete.
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that gives them a few more weeks of negotiating. the next phase -- that has been the big issue. at the moment, the discussions are about releasing the final charge of the bailout and reforms that should have been done earlier in the year and being itemize and agreed upon by parliament. this is a crucial month for greece. i think it is the final deadline . we have seen deadlines come and go with no progress made. anna: we believe you this time. [laughter] what about the extent to support the ecb of giving to the banking sector? what are the chances of emergency the crudity assistance of being reduced? she would look for any expression of ecb concern? sarah: it would be an expression of concern.
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we would have to see something else happening first if it default on it payment. it doesn't mean -- it would raise the question from the ecb about whether emergency liquidity assistance can continue. we know withdrawals has accelerated and is running at about 5 billion euros a month at the moment. the liquidity assistance is vital. the ecb may decide that it is no longer solvent. at that point, they may have to defer to the eurogroup or get the nod from outside ecb to stop. the consequences are quite severe. manus: hans took us through some of the numbers. 31 billion has left greece. is this where the accident could
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happen? do we need capital control to allow substantiall negotiation? sarah: it might reach that point. what we have seen in the past is where negotiations have been apparently improving. deposit withdrawal has slowed clearly enough functioning basis . at a certain point, people stopped taking deposits. need to have some sort of payment system. it is getting very difficult. at a certain point, it may be the case that controls need to be in place. capital controls would be in place. you would have a shorter deadline. negotiations one way or another. mark: what do you expect to happen in june? will there be some sort of fudge
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to get us through and big negotiations begin after this current bailout program ends? then we move into the next on? sarah: the history of this negotiations is a almost go over the brink and everyone else back from the brink. you find a solution. we know that the euro is so popular. it has support within race and also creditors don't want to see -- we assumed that some sort of compromise will be made. at the moment, it is difficult from the greek set to step over those red lines on pension reform. the imf is saying we need to see some reforms before money to be released. anna: how is the broader picture
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looking to you? it was suggested they were at their highest since 2009. are we seeing money flowing into the system in a way that gives recovery? sarah: yes, we are. the picture is looking pretty good at the moment. you have strong survey data. activity is expanding. we have seen a turnaround in lending. i think the environment is right for quantitative easing to gain traction. we are seeing money coming into the region and not just into the equity markets. overall, a positive outlook for that region. mark: sarah hewin. see you in a minute. ♪
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manus: sarah, where got german inflation. that is expected to show the biggest rise in seven months. quantitative easing seems to be working if you go purely on the data. sarah: yes. we have to recognize there is
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turnaround in energy prices. germany particular, you have inflation that was -- the comparison last are gives us a boost this time around. we are seeing signs that ecb and quantitative easing is working. we see it in a way that the euro weakened ahead of the announcement. for inflation, what we are focusing on is what is happening to core inflation? that is the real key. in our view, it will take longer. it will take longer for inflation to turn around and move back up to target. we may see market reaction to the strong rise that we dissipate from german inflation. we have to recognize that we
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need to look behind the scenes to see what is happening to the underlying picture. anna: very excited about the u.s. data we have got. what will the highlight be for you? you have got quite a punch a target -- punchy target. sarah: psp pete would have seen strength in their labor market. the rest of the economy is showing a mixed picture. we have a decline in gdp. the employment picture is good. for us, it is not so much that payroll or headline but what is happening to wages. there we think that we will continue to seek relatively slow wage growth. the fed is in no great hurry to raise rates. we think the time will be right. we will start to see stronger employment picture turning into stronger wage growth and
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inflation pressures starting to build. they'll be the point. mark: when will the time be right for the bank of england? it has announced its latest rate decision -- it will announce its latest rate decision this week. where our way in that -- where are we in that? sarah: we're looking for a rate hike. some of the data we have seen would support that. our view is that there is still a chance to still see the bank of england taking action later this year. look at the employment at share. it is a very strong picture it is continuing falling unemployment. we are seeing some sign of wages picking up as well. we don't really believe that -- >> a hike could come. -- anna: a hike could come.
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coming up the best investment you could imagine. ryan chilcote explores the market. stay with us on "countdown." ♪
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manus: welcome back to "countdown." let's check in on the dollar. today it is all about consumer spending. we had a conversation with an economist saying the fed would move most likely december this year. i liked what barclays wrote this
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morning in terms of an economy capable of generating inflation and the closest to rate hikes. it is the usa. the euro will be bounced around by the rhetoric that comes from greece. any don'ts of how close or how far apart they are -- the distance between the "countdown." -- the different agenda two is very gray. in terms of the levels you want to keep an eye on that is what will support that euro dollar. keep an eye on the aussie dollar as well.
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all of the analysts we have pulled absent us chileans will leave rates unchanged. it will depend upon the fed to do that job. china indicate stability. they're doing underlying support on the -- trying to indicate stability. thy'rey're doing underlying support. a 50%. that is the conundrum. mark: pimco more than doubled its treasuries to more than $18 billion in the first quarter.
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pimco -- top american and chinese officials met for a dialogue in singapore. trace officials talked about their -- china officials talked about unreasonable neighbors about rights in the south china seas. mark: the u.s. investigation of corruption into fifa moving into a new phase. it will be more charges against more people. they anticipate additional arrests. this comes as banks are preparing to hand over evidence in corrupt soccer allegations. anna: 6:33 a.m. in london.
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secretary of state john kerry broke his leg in a cycling accident. the mishap good company plans to reach an agreement. hans nichols has more. could this -- does the u.s. have a backup in place? hans: mr. kerry had a long meeting the day of his accident. they were not scheduled to meet again for another couple of weeks. in some ways, this could be the smallest obstacle. there are many obstacles out there. the public rhetoric is harsh and critical of what the u.s. position is. we all feel bad for senator kerry. long-term, we will see. [laughter]
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mark: right. staying in the us, the nsa spy program has expired. hans: it is a question of mass ball collection data. that is -- mass bulk collection of data. that is the story. rand paul is running for presidency. let's say -- going forward in the next 18 months, if several senators running for the presidency. they have a thin majority. this will complicate things. we are talking nsa today. we could talk about other topics later down the line. it is difficult. tough job. anna: grandstanding ahead of the
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election. thank you, hans nichols. manus: when you think about russian investment -- it is the most profitable investment you could imagine. he is betting half $1 billion. here is ryan chilcote. ♪ ryan: socialist realist art was created by stalin good today russia's richest cannot get enough of it. weatherman than $109 on soviet art. -- it is worth more than -- millions for soviet art. >> an average masterpiece of over $100 million. a soviet painting would cost $1
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million. the price could go up tenfold. ryan: it brought divisions of world war ii to a gallery in london. in the future, the plan is to open his own museum. >> i grew up in the soviet union. i saw how people made art there. i want to show the work of soviet artists to the world. ryan: many collectors sean soviet art as poorly crafted propaganda. russian art before a certain date is getting harder to come by. soviet nostalgia is on the rise. >> some want to show the kids the time they grew up in. ryan: the former german chancellor bought these paintings in the 1990's at a
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time when russia did not have the money for an appetite of art. they think the real money in soviet art has yet to come. ryan chilcote, bloomberg london. anna: you could join in on the conversation. not much soviet art under newsfeed this morning? manus: no. but there is doug the pug. one million followers. coming up, what are the prospects for manufacturers? stay with us. ♪
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manus: top stories of this hour -- china's battle against a slowing economy kept gamblers away. rose gambling revenue dropped by 37%. a blanket ban will be posed on oblique places in beijing. -- public places in beijing.
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it covers a, hospitals, schools and tourist spots. it is the first time china has a law that targets businesses that tolerate tobacco use. manus: economists have forecasted -- european data is due to release tomorrow. the first increase in six months. anna: 6:42 a.m. in london did officials purchasing manufacturers index ticked up slightly in may. let's get more. the director of china research. jonathan, great to see you on the show right and early on this monday morning. let's talk about the latest data.
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do we have to see the government putting more stimulus into the economy to make that growth target this year? or has what they have done enough? jonathan: it is below target at the moment. there is room there. where we are in what is happening with china's economy is a series of many cycles. we hit the bottom of the latest mini cycle about two months ago. we are on the upturn here. as soon as things get better, it will probably tighten. mark: barring the drop in the stock market, it goes higher and higher. are we in crazy land or not? jonathan: it is overboard. the market almost certainly. the shanghai market is a retail
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market. all of the evidence on the ground is that chinese investors think something is changing. something is improving computer they think the government is doing things. they like the reform story. the reform story brings problems in the short-term. this is not a market i would invest my grandchildren savings. [laughter] manus: anticorruption is still a prevalent seen. -- scene. that is well up from 2013. it has been a number one priority. jonathan: absolutely. anticorruption. the big figures. it is affecting the state owned enterprises. this is much more important.
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what they are implementing is to clear out management and make it more efficient. this is a huge long-term project. it is happening in oil and gas. it is spreading to other areas. people are afraid now. they may completely not take any risk. this run reason why you're having fewer projects coming through. one was to be caught up in something which may have an element to it. anna: seeking foreign policy. coming through with a foreign-policy approach that looks more overarching of put together than dealing with countries on a bilateral basis. complained the shift. jonathan: the advice was abide your time.
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i think he is a tower player. the most powerful leader in the world probably at the moment. he loves it. he thinks that time has come and china should show its brilliance there. he is viewing the foreign exchange reserves. he is using it to buy influence overseas. he has done so in neighboring countries. huge deals with russia. there he is doing in southeast asia and also in latin america. huge aid for brazil. chen is using money to buy influences. a new form of expansion. an interesting thing in the immediate area. china's pushing its claims in
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the east tennessee against japan -- feast china sea again -- east china sea against japan. anna: how our relations with russia? russia's relationship with the west's been tested right now. jonathan: it is in serious need of friends. they'll give it money to have high-speed trains. naval maneuvers. this is china -- the soviet relationship is resuming with china in the lead. mark: this china back asia infrastructure -- how is it going down? jonathan: 57 countries rushing to take part. be careful of this. we were told that china would
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not dominate this thing. the latest news coming out of singapore is china would have around 25%. the next biggest shareholder, india, what have a percentage. there is a need. asia needs investment in the next 10 years. china is supplying some of that. there will be there careful not to do anything naughty and to keep their record squeaky clean. manus: i'm no longer undervalued apparently. it will be welcomed into the imf . this would be a significant event. what would it mean? missed him by -- demystify all that code. jonathan: it becomes more of the world currency.
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one shouldn't mix of internationalization with the yuan with liberalization of the currency. we think china would be very slow to open up the capital accounts. the important thing is a household savings. >> we are allowed some millionaires. jonathan: certain amounts are free. i think china still operate by control. anna: do they fear money would leave? jonathan: you want to diversify your money. with china's history over the last 120 years, you want some
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say hold in case things turned back. mark: good to see you. jonathan fenby. anna: coming up, looking at our favorite stories, including the trouble of being the world's busiest international airport. ♪
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mark: the favorite of the
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celebrity scene reopens today. it has been closed for refurbishment. bloomberg took a look behind the scenes. ♪ >> i think there was a moment in the 1990's when if you were not unbelievably famous or super well-connected, you couldn't eat here. it was like a club. thanks. at that. i'm ready for my close-up. the truth is, it looked fine on the face. but the iv looked tired. i have been here for 15 years. in that time, i have seen change in london and in restaurants, but not at the iv. the biggest changes -- before we
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had a tiny bar you could not sit at. now the first corner table -- left or right? if you wanted done, do it yourself. the iv is one of the few restaurants where you could see a cabinet minister sitting next to a middle-aged couple with their son for his 18th birthday and an actress next to them. oh god. arnold schwarzenegger. we do not even have a table. it will be big news. it will be good for the iv. that turned into about 16 or 17 people what was really only table for 10 when he pushed these together.
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this is what it must feel like to be a celebrity. [laughter] creating an excellent dining room is when you make it look like paintings. you don't know how it is going to end up. bit more blue here. a bit more read here. -- red here. anna: yes. manus: one on the left. the one on the right. i never got the trendiest table. anna: i like how to cut the wood panels and the lighting. manus: very beautiful. this talk about wine. $18,000 for a bottle of wine which is on drinkable. it is absolutely appalling. it is a shuttle -- chateau.
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it has been oxidized. if it wasn't, it would have been worth in the region of -- let's turn the page over -- $25,000. they want to celebrate the victory of the allies over nazi germany in the second world war. anna: i gets a nice imagery -- i have got some nice imagery. this is giving the airport a headache. it is the biggest story on our website. the bigger the aircraft, the more space you need to leave the path behind deal. it is a nice problem to have. mark: who loves disaster movie question i do remember the poseidon adventure? "san andreas" is the latest one.
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top of the box office. "the roc " is the star. go and watch it. stay with us. ♪
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mark: china factory orders stabilize, and the government continuing its bond swap program to clean up government finance. manus: the bell tolls for europe. warning of dire consequences. anna: the final whistle has not sounded on the fifa scandal. the u.s. chief investigator warns expects further criminal charges in the corruption probe.
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mark: hello, welcome to "countdown." i am mark barton. anna: i am anna. manus: and i am manus cranny. looking at the populist at the immigration properties. we have the analysis. anna: let's start with the chinese story though. we have got pmi figures out, and they show factory orders stabilizing in the month of may, suggesting the government monetary easing could be cushioning the economy. let's get more from bloomberg's stephen engle. exhausting things earlier on, they say there could be more room for the chinese economy to try to meet that growth target.
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stephen: both markets up about 4%, hong kong market up about 1% at this hour, and there is the bond expansion. this is suggesting that the chinese economic slowdown may have already bottomed out. it was not robust, but we could see more easing coming down the pipeline, as we are in the evening cycle. don't be fooled by that number of 50.2. yes it is expansion, but it is not a very robust one. what is encouraging is within this pmi that we got for may, we saw output, new orders and new jobs all advancing in may, and that was a positive find. a separate hsb tmi that represents private enterprise manufacturers, it also improved.
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49.2, but better than the previous month. anna? anna: what about this bond swap program? it is about cleaning up the government finances, isn't it? stephen: yes, and they set up these government financing vehicles over the past several years because they could not sell bonds directly. they were not very transparent. the figure, the total debt figure, we did not know of a lot of these locals, musicality's into trouble with their debt service burden. they are considering plans to double this for the bond swap. phase two might be expanded up to 2 trillion yuan up from one trillion, and that is to swap them into me missable bonds. what happened in local
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governments, a took on this record amount of borrowing to fund a glut of investment products and their debt is huge. in fact, the government is considering expanding this. this indicates that they are, perhaps, happy. they have found a way to clean up the act problem which has so many people, not just in china, but investors around the world, quite happy. anna? anna: stephen engle on the greek economy. mark: institutions are showing no signs to change their conditions with releasing more money. what did we learn over the weekend? reporter: they denied on twitter that they were going to resign. here is my big question about this op-ed. looking at submitting it before or after he met with his
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counterparts, because it was a pretty fiery op-ed. let me read some of it to you. they said it is not due to suppose it in transient and incomprehensible greek stamps. it is good to the insistence of certain institutional actors on submitting absurd proposals, demonstrating a total indifference to the recent democratic choice of the greek people. notice how he does not mention this, the international monetary fund and they seem to be driving the hardest bargain. earlier, there was an idea that it was the germans that were driving the hardest bargain, and then it looked like the spaniards, the dutch, and in some ways, there could be a broker. we heard over the weekend that he talked to analysts in berlin. probably being able to muscle through if she has to take that. she will lose the popularity. but in other ways, it she is
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sort of his smallest obstacle in getting a deal. manus: just give us some context. hans: i think down to 133 billion. seeing 800 million glowing out of deposits, such as the last two days. look. if you take what is happening with the emergency liquidity assistance you're kind of yardstick your barometer, they are at 81 billion that has gone out. we have seen quite a bit about those. either way, the are supposed to cover the gap but it was not clear how much the ecb was going to continue to allow this sort of emergency money. anna: hans nichols with that update on greece. manus: and going from greece to russia, i will put my glasses on, my contact lenses. the company closed 89 names of
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those who are banned from entering the country. this was sanctions. we are in brussels, and we have the story. who in russia, who are the names? give us some flavor. reporter: well, it is like you say. it is people who have criticized a russian annexation of crimea last year and its continued involvement in eastern ukraine. one of the most prominent is nick clegg in the u.k., and as you know, last year, he said russia stripped of the 2018 world cup that they had one and: has the most names on the list, about 19. the u.k. has about nine, and then there are others scattered throughout the eu.
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manus: as he said, nick clegg made it onto it because he criticized the world cup. give us a sense of the reaction so far? reporter: well, the eu says it is unjustified, and there is no basis for it. it is still a confidential list as far as the russians are concerned. they have not put it out publicly, although it has been leaked. the eu is basically saying there is no basis for this, and russia has not given the legal underpinning for doing it. it is obviously in reaction to the sanctions that the eu has put on russia in the wake of the situation in the wake of the conflict in eastern ukraine. but at the same time, they are saying that it is not justified and that there is no reason for this. some of them have gone on twitter to say this is actually a badge of honor to be excluded
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from russia, to be banned from traveling to russia. and, by the way, did not want to go there anyway. manus: what about the sanctions? does it change the issue? does it raise the red flag? reporter: well, it certainly does not help the situation. the eu once to change the situation in ukraine. they want to abide by the minsk agreement for the cease-fire in ukraine. and this does nothing to help that situation. now, the eu has a series of sanctions, economic and otherwise, travel bans and asset freezes against officials, and those come up for discussion by the eu leaders in just a few weeks, and it looks like they are going to extend them again,
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and this is not going to help that situation at all. manus: thank you very much. rounding that up. stay with us. we'll be speaking to one of chancellor angela merkel's key allies, and that is live in the polls at 10:30 london time. anna: three u.s. spy programs have expired among a standoff amongst republicans. this is the first time after the september 11 attacks where they cannot initiate the use of those tools to monitor communications of the suspected terrorists. they are expected to vote by wednesday on the bill. the results of the italian local election are due. it is a test of the prime minister's strength. he is expected to hold onto five of the seven regions.
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and chinese defense officials met for the annual shine more light dialogue. chinese officials talk about their country as being the set i unreasonable neighbors. this is pertaining to islands in the south china sea. and a blanket dan will be placed on smoking in public places in beijing, covering schools hotels public transport, and the city's tourist spots. they can issue fines of 1006 hundred dollars on businesses and $32 on others and it is the first time they will target businesses that tolerate tobacco use. and you can find that online at bloomberg.com. mark: the prime minister facing opposition with the election. we just had news of renzi, a
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regional vote in italy. that is in the umbria region. there are the events taking place. we will have a full discussion.
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mark: prime minister renzi is facing a test as results come through the elections. just getting some news. let's bring in david lee, a senior analyst. david, seven regions up for grabs. the thinking that renzi woodwind five of them. -- would win five of them. david: yes six, he was never going to win in venice, so -- anna: what does the opposition
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look like, because we are in this post silvio era, and then bringing into that the movement the anti-immigration rhetoric. how united is it? david: the opposition is completely desperate. it looks like the largest party to the right of center. in most of the country, and even many center-right voters, that is a sense about how weak the center is, so it is a time for renzi to make hay while the sunshine's. i am not sure he has. not all that impressed. manus: what has he achieved? everyone holds up a poster of ireland and portugal as being
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the reformist roadmap. for labor or the electoral reform, and what is on his agenda? david: i think on the labor form he got through partially. mildly impressive. certainly there was an article for which many of the unions -- he has got that through, it seems, so he has done ok on that. the electoral reforms, much. everyone agreed they were much needed, but when they looked at the meat of it, they did not like what he proposed, but he got that through. he initially needed berlusconi's help to get it through, and it turned out he did not meet it. manus: should he be bolder? david: he is being as realistic as he can be.
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his next one, for any centerleft leader, he is taking that on. manus: that will be fun. mark: mike to be time to get a national election to get a stamp of approval on his mandate? david: i think he definitely wants to be prime minister elected in his own right, but i think the national opinion polls look better. so i think he is in a pretty strong position. his democratic party is not that in amer it with him. and the democratic party is split because there are some who do not really like cam. so maybe not yet. anna: might the economy carried
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him further? signs of recovery coming through . he has had a triple dip recession. as things are getting stronger for the italian economy, perhaps? david: he is starting to make some ground. he will be very quick to associate him coming into office. getting out of the reform. anna: the ecb. david: he is the one. manus: thursday and friday. angela merkel said, i want to find a solution, and then on sunday, they said that rupert murdoch is going to back to the u.k. staying in the u.s. -- u.k.. david: yes, murdoch tweeted that he was not all that convinced.
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i think that will be a major change. manus: he did not deny it? david: rather than having the titles to do it. i think that would be a major win for cameron. mark: does he make progress with merkel at that meeting? he did not progress your oh far. she is the key. david: yes, she is the key. poland was tough, but merkel, he has got quite a lot in common with, and she knows that she needs the u.k. in the eu, so she is going to try to find a way. a solution will happen. does that ring a bell? anna: is it up to the u.k. to say we want to this?
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david: well, essentially, this has never happened before. it is an entirely new protocol, really. we expect the u.k. will make its way through. for the group in the center of the eu, but it is a new program. anna: david, senior analyst at control risk. manus: john kerry has broken his leg. and a couple of things, iran the talks. a deadline for the deal. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 7:23 in london. secretary of state john kerry broke his leg in a viking
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mishap. hans nichols is here, and could this really prevent a deal with iran? hans: they say diplomats appreciate face-to-face. it will be difficult for him to get on a plane in the next couple of weeks. the question is can he get to be june 30 deadline, which is a hard deadline to get to a deal? the situation between john kerry and his iranian counterparts the question is, what do they want? and will senate republicans allow something in the state? it is a sad thing for senator kerry. it seems to be a bit far, to say that? we had senator rand paul running for president, from kentucky. he went against the other senator from kentucky, mitch
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mcconnell a leader, and it is -- this will ultimately be we authorized in a circumscribed way. the new rule is that this will be not held by the government. it is section 215, exposed by edward snowden. that this data has been stored by the government. some people wanted to have atw-year grace period and it looks like the six-month version is the one that will go through. this will pass midweek. it is clear that senator paul has a victory. looking for it to him and governing in the states in the next 18 months. a short election cycle, x weeks and then you guys are done. we have got 18 months of this. -- six weeks, and then you are done.
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manus: a labor advisory. to really drive that. anna: it is a really international election. so you think this is part -- that there is a story around the nsa and the powers of the government and there is also a story around the run-up to the election, and that is the context? hands --hans: ultimately section 215 is going to be reauthorized in a circumscribed way. anna: thank you. manus: coming up, no holiday in russia this year. who is on the russian travel ban
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list? ♪
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manus: welcome back to "countdown." monday morning. we are up at the moment, trading levels we have not seen since april, the middle of april of this year, up about one quarter of a percent, and stanley fisher will speak for the fed. and barclays comments, this u.s. economy is the most capable of generating inflation. and this is the closest to a rate hike.
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we had a conversation with standard chartered saying that nonfarm payrolls will be 240,000, and the fed will go for a hike in september. going into the third straight week of gains for the dollar 97.1 five. the dollar is a little stronger but have a look at the euro. 109.43. and manufacturing data across europe consumer prices are expected to show the first rise in seven months. but coming from alexis tsipras, is opened peas in the newspapers, quoting hemingway, talking about for whom the bell tolls, that is what europe should reflect upon. we have a significant amount of moving that we have don on our behalf, and now it is up to the creditor nations.
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they have broken the 55-day moving average. the next big big training level is 108.49, and there is a fair distance between now and that. keep an i on the aussie dollar, as well, and china is destabilizing. that is pretty much what the purchasing index says. in expansion mode. the aussie dollar remains different. the reserve bank of australia. tomorrow, 2% is the rate of interest. economists that we have surveyed say it will remain unchanged. they will probably go for an easing. in that context, you may see the aussie dollar trading down to a level of 75.33, the april lows. one of the issues holding the aussie's back, house prices
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rising by 15%, 15% in may alone. the treasury secretary says you have a bubble. now, that ultimately, would help their currency drop a little bit lower. anna? anna: thank you, mark. more than $18 billion in the first quarter and cutting derivative bets tied to sovereign debt in a range of countries, including brazil and china. the pimco total return overseas $110 billion. and the u.s. investigation of corruption into fee for -- into fifi, -- fifa the investigator says they expect additional arrests and please. barclays preparing to hand over evidence to prosecutors who
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investigate corruption, according to the sunday times. he u.k. chancellor announced a voice resale -- retail offering, part of a plan to return lloyds to profit. this is now below 19%. mark: some people are prohibited from entering the eu, and several politicians were denied entry in recent months. let's bring in a vice presidents. -- a vice president. thank you. guest: good morning. mark: what do you make of this list of 89 people? no massive names on this list. what is your take on it? guest: it reflects the situation with russia and the countries. it is very heavy on baltic
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nations, on poland but they rely on representatives of italy or france. for example there are politicians on the list, and there is not a single hungarian or slavic politician, and these are the countries that are typically speaking against sanctions, eu sanctions against russia, so on one hand, you have a lot of those represent countries that are outspoken against russia or who have been directly involved in helping the european part, and on the other hand, you see very little from the countries that are critical of the eu sanctions on russia so there are not too many surprises. one interesting feature is that the list is very heavy on members or former members of the european parliament.
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the european parliament against russia. mark: why has this been kept secret for so long, when we consider the eu public list? guests: well, this is the real cause of an outrage in the eu because this was sometime last year. in the meantime, several eu politicians have been denied entry into russia without much of an explanation. they did not explain the basis on which these individuals are banned from russia. they do not have a legal framework in which they would be obliged to publish these sanctions, unlike in the eu, where all of the things have to be published in the gazette. looking at why the individuals are included. and they are able to challenge the sanctions.
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mark: will the sanctions be extended to midyear, the european sanctions towards russia? otilia: they aren't directly linked to the minsk agreement. it appears -- are directly linked to the minx agreement -- minsk agreement. on the other hand, russian imports will likely be extended with the european sanctions. this will be for individual imports or types of countries depending on relationships. mark: where does that leave the u.s.?
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otilia: there are those by order of the president and then the congressional section. perhaps a lightning of sanctions , if the eu sanctions are also there. the congressional sanctions will probably stay. for the time being, we will not see any substantial changes in the next six months. mark: in the situation with ukraine and the separatists, what do we expect? will it simmer on through the summer at a low level of violence? otilia: well, it appears to be escalating somewhat in the recent weeks, especially down south. it is quite likely that the conflict will be there during the summer, eventually developing into further conflict. local elections in october. there is very little chance that ukraine will gain sovereignty
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over that again. mark: thank you. manus: join us on twitter. i am at manus cranny. mark is @markbartontv. it is always good to be waking up. and we look at renzi and the elections in italy. what will he pull off? mark: and an asset class. ♪
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mark: what was may's number one asset class? a measure of global developed equities. this is a year to date chart. the top chart. during the month of may, the index actually dropped by .4% after rising 2.7 percent in
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april. year to date, it is still up. it reached an all-time high, may 21. 1.9% low the all-time high. the best performing stock market in local currency, venezuela, which rose 92%. a major stock exchange market index with a gain of 6%, followed by a rise of 5% or the nikkei 225. the worst, the argentina and index -- the argentina index dropping in april. a bloomberg index, a gauge of the dollar performance against 10 leading global currencies, rebounded by 2.3% meaning it has only fallen one months since july last year. in may, the dollar rose against 30 of 31 of its major pairs, and only the chinese renminbi outperformed it. out of the 155 currencies we
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track at bloomberg, the best-performing currency, the rwanda and frank. gaining by almost 4%. a decline of 7.5%. the first chart i want to show you is not the bloomberg commodity index. actually, it is the bloomberg commodity index, and it says it rose by .8% in may. the commodities though soybeans. an awesome chart. interesting. a rise on the month, followed by silver, 3.4%. the worst was nickel. it felt almost 10%, and very likely, i just want to tell you about the bond's space. norway, with a return of .57% according to our bloomberg world bond indexes.
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and this was followed by greece with a .3 6%. greece was the only european bond market to register a positive return in may. within emerging markets, serbia was the standout local bond market with a 2.7%. and the dollar than coming out on top, beating the msci and the bloomberg commodity index, a 6% rise though to the jamaican stock market is the standout performer. manus: bloomberg stories. for the 12th straight month in may, china's battle against graft and a slowing economy gross gaming revenue dropped about 37%. and a ban will be imposed on smoking in public places in beijing from today. it covers all workplaces
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schools, hotels, public transport, and the hot spots. they can be fined $1600 on businesses and $32 for smokers refusing to comply with the band. it is the first time in china they are targeting businesses that tolerate tobacco use. anna: now just a few minutes to go before the european equity markets open. and a head of research who is with us in the studio bright and early this monday morning. good morning to you. thanks for joining us. i should ask you, to do well in may were you long soybeans or long be jamaican stock market? i know these features -- these feature high in your portfolio.
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john: commodities, we have a lift. anna: it is a cliché but it works for you right now. john: i think that is what they are hoping for. we are long-term investors, and historically, there has been a small path. you make a little bit of money. and i am not sure it is going to work out this year. this is a really difficult step. we are optimists. we are overdue for a correction but we will be overdue for about two years. mark: give us a time frame john. what is a sign that it is about to happen? john: absolutely. it is when people say everything is fine, and it will happen. at the moment, everyone is saying, i am a bit frightened.
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manus: with the timing, i am not quite sure. with china, is that just a call of leverage? john: i am really, really happy about china. i think you have had a whole slew of events and last year everything was blowing up. it was almost a new story in the financial times about how much leverage is in china, and how many cities there are. i am afraid china is managing its way through an incredibly stressful period, unbelievably well. the earnings may be coming down. the growth may be coming down but really, the truth is we have got a level playing field. they are ok. they are not terrible. and you will get a higher multiple. for me, i think the chinese
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themselves they are having fun with their own stock. the h share market doubling or halving what do we care, but we do care about the growth because that will likely improve. anna: how do you get in? perhaps in a less risky way to do that play that you have so much confidence in going into that story? john: there are those great blue-chip names that benefited from the emerging markets. they have all of these great brands in the emerging markets. ok, it is not sexy but, my word, is it reliable, and i love that. the other thing you can do is play the china region. you do not have to go and buy a bunch of china h shares preview can buy the china region.
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they are going to do well somehow, so for me, it is really not a hard story to play. it is hard to get really rich, but it is not hard to make some money. anna: john he stays with us, and we will continue our conversation. we have a bit more, when we come back. ♪
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mark: with us is john haynes. underweight the u.k., john? john: i think the u.k. cycle has been a head, and we expect europe to catch up with the u.s., so it is really more of a tilt rather than an anti-u.k. stance. taking money from somewhere and to put it somewhere else.
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in the u.k., for making money. anna: and how convinced are you about the u.k. story? buying europe at the moment. john: exactly. giving us this opportunity. i think the fabric of europe is improving very rapidly. there are a number of key things that mirror the u.s. and one of the things is fixing the banking system. the european ranking system. that might be a controversial thing to say but what happens then is that banks lend money to businesses, and businesses go and do stuff. that is what happened in the u.s., and greece to me is a bit of a sideshow. it is over analyzed. i expect that might be the trigger for a correction. if the unexpected happens, and maybe there is a 30% or a 5% earlier in the year, then, sure, there will be reason for people
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to take a step back and not do some investing for a while, but i think after that brief. people, -- that brief period, they will come back. manus: if greece falls back, and it does not fall into something. we will have you back in the event that happens. infrastructure, like property and, again, is this within a european context? and the strategy for a core is focused on the u.k. investor. john: the u.k. commercial property. those are mature trades, if you like him in the portfolio. they have done really well for us in the past few years. they have appreciated. that pushes up the prices of yield and investment. we still think there is something left. something of a healthy spread to
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be made in the structural commercial property, but we are in a mature phase. ill liquid investments. it is better to be out early rather than late. we are taking it and -- a look at how long. anna: the bond rout. is that over? john: i think we are going to test people's patience. and what is going to happen when the u.s. raises interest rates. we will see if we can stress the system when that happens. in my mind, i think the underlying growth of the world and the underlying inflation does not justify rates going up much in the u.s., so i think markets can stand it. i think three is the number they have in their head. i do not think they rout -- the
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rout will go much beyond that. anna: john, thank you. mark: we will talk about the shanghai composite coming up. we will see you tomorrow. ♪
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jonathan: good morning, and welcome to "on the move." a huge week coming up opec, the ecb, and jobs data all over the next five days. let's get you started and get you straight to your morning brief. the greek prime minister takes a swipe at creditors. 1.6 billion euros to pay the imf this month. china stabilizes, stocks rebound after factory output rose, and they have a cleanup to help with governments.
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and going to the polls, looking at the reform agenda of prime minister renzi, and that is the way that things are going. we'll be talking about this over the next 60 minutes, that futures are up by 27 points, dax up by 66 points, and the stocks are going a little bit higher. in is cranny has your market open. manus: it was the op-ed over the weekend, talking about hemingway, talking about the potential cataclysmic impact. look at that. that was the dax on friday. it actually wiped out the entire gains made in may. that gives you a sense of what was going on. this week it is about inflation data, and germany will be first up to give their inflation data and we are expecting the first

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