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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  September 29, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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much doom and gloom in the headlines this morning. 15 seconds away, ftse futures rout inx down, a stock asia. let's get straight to caroline hyde. we are very much back and so close to a bear market on the stoxx 600. the benchmarks in europe are but fall fromghty 20% april. we are starting to accelerate the losses across the board. we will hear from the bank of the reserve bank of india. economist for saw a percentage point cut to rates in india. seeing the negative sentiment inequities, and we are seeing a movement and the heathen. is the euro again a haven? certainlyse yen is
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coming out against the dollar at the moment. meanwhile, money coming out of rout, they, the concern about a glut in supply. meanwhile, questions about china sends copper up. what does that do to the miner? -- th eminers? u.s. bombs are rallying, yields coming down. yesterday, germany yields also traded lower, money moving into the havens. meanwhile, let's check in on glencore. brutal move yesterday, of third of its market being wiped off. we are seeing it rebounding, up 6%. record lows couldn't be sustained that much longer as people are trying to understand how big their debt mountain is.
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once upon a time to worth now, $10 million. we saw mining lower trading in asia, now in the u.k. meanwhile, some other stock 3%,s, vw is continuing down but still negative headlines coming out. the nikkei is reporting that sales are falling through september, canceling sales of cars in spain. legal fees are also being --orted, nestle up 9/10 of nestle down 9/10 of a percent. up.andle, boohoo is adding customers . jonathan: thank you very much. the ftse is down by 1.1%. over in asia, they are showing how it is done -- the nikkei to 25, every single stock, every session closing in the red.
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let's get to juliette sally in hong kong. juliette: good morning. not a great afternoon here in asia as we see the close-out of the china session, the shanghai composite closing down by 2%. hong kong, unfortunately for investors, is still trading for another hour, and hangs is down -- and the hang seng is down. seeing big falls coming through from the 50 stocks on the hang seng, glencore shares falling to a record low. we could see little bit of bargain-hunting coming in but here in hong kong, they are under heavy selling pressure. this the picture on the nikkei 225, its biggest drop since january. as you can imagine, it was these commodity-based players bearing the brunt of the selling. the worst performers on the nikkei 225.
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in australia, a big fall, down 3.8%. that is the biggest we have seen on the australian share market in two years. we have also been watching a number of these key players. here are some of the other hong kong listeners -- listers being sold off due to the big slump in glencore. , london leicester's, down almost 7%, its biggest one-day drop since the height of the global financial crisis. rio tinto is down 4.5%. routinly, that commodity in the fear of glencore that was sparked in your session yesterday is slowing through into asia today. jonathan: juliette. here is what is happening in today's show. first up, mining meltdown. glencore gets absolutely
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hammered. what is next for the worst-performing stock infancy. -- stock in ftse. then, india cuts rates. and is danger ahead? fed isahn warns the creating trouble and we have no idea how bad it is going to be. it is there to say that glencore has had a pretty brutal year, of the share selloff reached new heights of brutality yesterday. check out the move. thatis not a year today, is over a single day of training. that was yesterday, down almost 30%. we are joined now by ryan chilcote. ryan: the case being made for buying the share is the same being made by city and report -- "bottomless, we don't think so." it is anticipating the move. a think yesterday's a selloff
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since the company announced its debt reduction plans is overdone, and they think it has been driven by errant use on the company's ability to manage $30 billion of debt. they don't think the credit agencies will downgrade glencore anytime soon. -- they think in terms of asset sales there could be a surprise on the upside. remember, as part of the debt reduction plan, the idea was to raise $2 billion in asset sales. they think they could raise more. they think the agricultural business could be worth much more. they think glencore may go beyond selling just a stake in that agricultural business, which is valued at $10.5 billion. the other point is an economic one and has to do with the copper price. they say they stress test copper prices, that even if copper
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prices were to fall to $4000 per than the company would make about $7.5 billion in pretax profit. there shouldn't be any concerns about its ability to handle its debt. that is the case. and the analyst recommendations -- they are pretty slick, but citi is making a call. a final point for you -- citi says that if glencore share price continues to fall, if people don't listen to advice to buy it, then management should take the company private. jonathan: thank you. a move yesterday was quite it wasn't because precipitated by a single event. was this a straw that broke the camels back? -- if majormodity commodity prices remain at current levels, one analyst says
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that in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value could evaporate. i am pleased to say that we are joined by one of the authors, who currently has a hold recommendation on glencore. ier.ell as jav a very strong statement yesterday. the equity value could be wiped out. what kind of scenario are you painting in two years that equals that? >> i think we took spot commodity prices into perpetuity. that analysis is often done in near-term risks, and it is clearly an sustainable long-term. that was to some extent a doomsday scenario, and where we said there is no equity value, at those sorts of levels, all earnings will pay debt, and
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there is no earnings back to equity shareholders. glencore has a portfolio of assets which have long-term value. is just getting to that point where we can realize that value for the assets. jonathan: best case scenario. we know the 12 month story. china, commodity rout, the debt burden will be too big, but to be fair to investec, what does it tell you about the stock? javier: i think marc is very popular right now. [laughter] market i think that the has a problem with glencore. the credibility of management has been reduced significantly over the last few months because management said something and did something completely different.
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they will keep the dividend only for five weeks. they come to the market and announce the cancellation of the dividend and capital raising. with credibility very low, any warning that there is no equity .alue is going to do badly the market is very jumpy on glencore. here on bloomberg tv we have had to glencore analyst's this morning. one from bernstein. investec is a little more bearish, although still bullish considering where the pound is trading. each and everyone of you take a very different view on the commodity market. i'm just wondering why everyone is finding it so difficult to find a consensus on how to value glencore, sitting out this morning. maybe they should just go private again -- is that a scenario that you think of play out? marc: the issues that glencore
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faces, in our view, if this environment continues, and all the many they generate goes into debt -- what is left for equity holders? there are no more dividends to, telly can take more action. at some point, yes, it will be tempting for a long-term strategic partner, along with management, to think that the best places to go private. javier: you think that the metrics they have announced are enough? marc: yes, if they are all implemented to the full extent, they could get glencore to where they need to be. as poor prices. dividend in the equity issue, the easiest moves to make. cutting working capital, standing assets, are achievable
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but not without ramifications. they are all necessary to get gears to where they are targeting. jonathan: your saying it is not enough. when they came out a couple weeks ago and unveiled this, the market opposite was enough. we are trading at 72 pence per share. you got hammered in just two weeks. what does glencore management need to do in the next couple weeks? thought theyle would come out -- didn't happen. you need them to say something much stronger? marc: i think the best thing management can do is conclude and wrap up one of the targets , such as an asset sale, and get a price for. that sort of event would likely help investors. that sort of move is necessary, maybe an affirmation from credit ratings that it is ok. but the default swaps need
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refinancing and they have people jumpy. jonathan: if i wake up tomorrow at the bloomberg terminal, a big red strap comes down, glencore's downgraded to junk -- what does that mean for the company? marc: that means big trouble. while the current training facilities -- the cost impact may not be great but the probably facing his refinancing bonds ahead. we estimate there are about 12 billion bonds between now and the end of 2017. they have to pay a much bigger coupon on those bonds, and that is what the investors and shareholders face, eroding the earnings. jonathan: just to wrap this up, this is a just a glencore story. this embodies a bigger picture, whether it is china, whether it is a commodities story. there is another question being asked in the market about credit risk. this company poses systemic risks. what are people saying about that? javier: i don't think that
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glencore -- if they were to go under tomorrow, it would not mean the end of the global financial system. it will be significant trouble. but we have seen commodity trading houses going under in the past. think about enron. one of the largest agricultural traders went down, rivals pick up the assets, business continues, significant disruption for the commodity market for a few days or weeks but at the end of the day the companies are not so essential as they were as the banks. jonathan: too big to fail? marc: i suspect there will be means to rescue the company. perhaps leaning on equity holders yet again, if the situation continues. but we will wait and see. jonathan: that question. last week there was a bearish
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note and i am trying to equate -- how do you reconcile? marc: it was reinforcing a point was if the spot environment remains unchanged that glencore is the most exposed. glencore is ideally placed to benefit from a recovery and a rebound. but if the rebound takes longer, the worst places to suffer the consequences. jonathan: avoiding the ski slopes in switzerland this winter. thank you for joining us. just say you know, full disclosure, peter grauer, the parent of bloomberg news, is a senior independent nonexecutive director at glencore. come, india cuts rates. details after this short break. ♪
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jonathan: here are bloomberg's top stories. glencore shares dropped by record in hong kong, tracking losses in london. that led asian stocks to an almost three-year low. glencore shares are trading higher this morning by 520%. -- 5.8%. carl icahn posted a video objecting to the fed's actions, saying they must raise rates. >> why should they raise rates? it is almost a rhetorical question. there are so many reasons.
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are building bubbles, real estate bubbles, bubbles even in the online markets. jonathan: western leaders are trying to end the carnage in syria and must accept russia. that is the view of the italian prime minister, who spoke to us in an exclusive interview in new york. countrya is a great with a great system in future. imagine a future without russia clashed it is a mistake. . jonathan: welcome back. let's get you up to speed on where stocks are trading. 1%, a drop below 6000 points yesterday. we stay there. we are down almost 10% on the year. dax is also down by one full percent. of ftse mining index is rebounding, but it was the rout
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yesterday, i december 2008 low. now has a rout in asia as well, the hang seng down by 2.94% this morning. some news in india that we need to get to as well. the central bank lowered interest rates more than expected. the r.b.i. dropped rates by 50 basis points . wherego out to mumbai, three unlock you is standing by. priang, the cut in 25 basis points -- why go 50? what is the point? >> that is true. -- the a big surprise market was expecting 25 and the governor surprised with 50. when you talk us through what he has been that --
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saying that we will keep a close eye on the inflation data. here is the inflation way to pan back, and giving them comfort. what he has done is frontloaded the rate cuts. what it means is that the ball is now in the government's court. he wants to see response going in, good policy measures. commentary, hes clearly highlighted that he is worried about the way conditions have been on the economy front, the way markets have been panning out. he has been highlighting that in his commentary. worried about the global situation, but at the same time he is trying to give a boost on the domestic front. that is why he warned of the cut. jonathan: let's talk more
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specifically about the commentary from the governor. all lies on the governor. as far as you are concerned, what is it going forward from here? the global economy or what happens domestically? all eyesit is on domestic -- he quite clearly says that he wants to see transmission. he gives that 50 basis point cut but now it is up to the bankers to get the domestic growth going. that is why you will never see a merger between reforms and the participation of the bank. having said that, he did mention he is keeping a close watch on the fed policy and what kind of action we see there as well. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this morning. that surprise bigger than expected rate cut in india. craig.ring in we talk about the brig.
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russia is arguably heading the same way, china struggles, but in india the consensus seems to be they are doing ok -- why the aggressive rate hike? craig: they are not a massively open economy, they aren't that reliant on trade. also there has been lots of pressure internally for cheaper financing for quite some time now. i think there is a need their and although they have been cutting rates that hasn't been passed on to lending rates. jonathan: the prime minister comes into power with so much fanfare, reform, reform, reform. than everyone is disappointed if he hasn't reformed fast enough. blood to people want to see that he hasn't followed through on. ? craig: the goods and services -- there are two big ones that the industry has been
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struggling for, and he has yet to deliver. when he came in there was so much exuberance, expectations were so high that we can only be disappointed. but we are now reaching a point where he has even more expectations. we just seen nothing yet. jonathan: at the same time, when you look at india -- forget the fed, the biggest bailout india's had is the commodity rout. how much is that help the country? craig: massively. they import almost all of their energy needs. they have less of a heavy industry based in china. it is helping to push down the ppi. jonathan: credit risk. a lot of people talking about credit risk. a stronger dollar, what it means for corporate balance sheets.
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we have been talking about this for a while now. we talk about the crisis that seemingly never comes -- is it coming, and what does it come? craig: for the time being we have a japan occasion of the global economy. interest rates are so low that you can keep finding more financing. we are heading toward a crunch point. we might need a reassessment of how stable financing plans are as well. jonathan: we differentiate for south africa, brazil. but if you get the kind of rout and credit for those countries, is anyone hiding from that kind of scenario? mean, hiding -- i there is less reliance on overseas financing. -- how much at the
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dollar debt they have on a short-term basis, short-term gdp. jonathan: how hard is that to track at the moment? craig: there are things like debt issues, that securities. it is not the most timely data. boat you can have a good idea of how things are headed. jonathan: thank you very much for joining us this morning. up next, half $1 billion in a few hours. that is what the move cost the glencore ceo isinglass and berg. billionaire blues -- is that even exist? ♪
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jonathan: welcome back from european headquarters in the city of london. 30 minutes into the trading day. the stoxx 600 is down by 1%, ftse down by 9/10 of 1%. think that gotten ugly. the biggest game today and the biggest losers yesterday in a moment. the dax is up by half of 1%, the ftse mining index bouncing back from the december, 2008 well. a rout in asia was carried over today. a lot of stocks stories, let's get to some of them now with caroline hyde. caroline: the biggest decline in the stoxx 600 -- not a day to
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start talking about challenging markets, because investors won't like it. this is the worst day for stocks since 2009. overall, we are seeing numbers looking pretty good, for your sales up 11%. then you dig into the profits. remainsic market challenging and the u.k. market, too, remains a challenge, to mention the north american market. all of this is clouding over what was pretty strong sales. a big building supplier is dragging down competitors. volkswagen folks like dragging down the auto market. its usual exposure is coming into the forefront, after
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exposure by goldman sachs saying they removed it from their convictions list. get out of the automakers in get into the auto suppliers instead, the carmakers. that is where goldman sachs sees the value. meanwhile, glencore. selloff reached almost 30%. the company was once upon a time worth $85 billion and is now just try a $10 billion. it games today, coming out of record lows in leading the charge. we will dig into that one. jonathan: eye well. -- i will. by 7.5%, the biggest move higher since august, 2012. the mining meltdown, and glencore's epic selloff yesterday. and the companies as ceo, ivan
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enberg, lost $500 billion in saw his net worth shrink by 50%. for more, we are joined by devon pendleton. is one manhere feeling this and feeling a lot of pain in his bank account, it is mr. glasson berg. how much pain? devon: quite a bit. he lost half $1 billion yesterday, and that is more than a quarter of his net worth in one day. it is pretty painful. jonathan: we were talking about the glencore billionaires club when this company ipo. how many are left? devon: it is a club of one right now. one who still has glencore. you have a couple executives who do still own shares. they both lost $200 million each yesterday, and they are worth
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about half a billion at this point. how far they have fallen. jonathan: a lot of people are thinking -- they are ceiling pain a lot of people felt in the ipo. the difference here i guess is that these execs also bought into the share sales less than two weeks ago. we have to recalculate they are feeling once again wiln. how many bought into that? that: we know for fact those three executives definitely bought into that share sale, and at least two others did as well. they really had to get into the game as part of their agreement package. may have to keep their shares equal. so they spent hundreds of millions two weeks ago buying shares, and it is safe to say that they have not recoup the investment yet. jonathan: they bought those shares at 125 pence, now it is at 74 pence. devon pendleton, thank you very
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much. another stock we are watching is folks lik volkswagen. ceo says the revisions may not be enough as the company faces a growing crisis. let's get the latest from hans nichols. hans, i thought this of the enough. what was the money set aside for? hans: the 6.5 billion that volkswagen announced was a set aside for the technical fix, according to a very respected german publication. we still do have anything on the legal provisions side, on how much this will cost. 7 isny said that october the date they want to fix a technical solution, otherwise they will take the cars off the road. if you remember what the ceo's first impulse was last week, it was to find a technical solution. exists,stand that one
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but it will be very difficult and very costly to put it into effect. more jurisdictions are now raising concerns. there is a potential investigation taking place in sweden. cars that areking affected off the market in spain, in india. in japan they may entirely rethink the way they test vehicles, retest them in a different way. everyr bit of news -- year, there is a survey by an automobile lobbying group in germany, and they test what the advertised and actual miles per gallon for a variety of different indicators are. stein mart topped the list, 48% above what they advertised. but the most interesting thing to me was the average fudging rate was 40% higher. in 2001, it was 10%. you that those regulators have gotten more
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strict and you have seen the auto companies try to gai game the system. . jonathan: trained in the visibility on this company. yesterday we were waiting for the ceo to step down. here i am looking around for guidance, if i'm an investor. give me some visibility on what i need to look out for. hans: well, you need to have a rearview mirror and look far ahead. we still want to know all the countries affected and all the engine models. we don't know if their spanish version of a volkswagen group has been affected. looking backwards, we want to know more about those. looking forward, we want a sense of how much a technical solution will cost, and what their legal strategy is. the legal strategy is probably the cloudiest, because there are so many jurisdictions across some a different countries with different cultures and legal systems. no one can quite figure that one out. even if you just take the
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states, you have states attorneys generals, the epa, the doj, then you have class-action. those are for and we still have no idea what it will be in the states. they sold less than half a million of these vehicles and they think the total is 11 million. jonathan: hans nichols, thank you very much. their stock is down another 3% this morning. we will keep an i on the market selloffs. coming up, an exclusive interview with the prime minister of italy, weighing on on the situation syria. ♪
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jonathan: here are bloomberg's top stories. india's central bank lowered interest rates by more than expected, cutting the benchmark repurchase rate to 6.75%. one ave was predicted by 52 economists in a survey. glencore shares dropped by a record in hong kong, tracking losses in london. asian stocks headed toward an almost three-year low, while the cost of insuring debt surged. shares are up by 5.73%. and other record for apple, selling 13 million iphones over its debut weekend, compared to the 10 million sold last year, with an average selling price of $660 per iphone translating to
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$8.5 billion of revenue over a 72 hour. . says the fed is causing bubbles. it posted a video objecting to the low rate environment. says the fed must raise rates. ques >> why should they raise rates question market is almost a rhetorical question. it is almost by definition building bubbles, building bubbles even in the on markets. jonathan: welcome back to bloomberg tv. 42 minutes into the session. markets are listening. a raf in asia -- a rout in asia, the ftse just off lows. this index got battered by the miners yesterday, the ftse mining index bouncing off a 2008 low, the dax down by the tense of 1%.
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-- down by 8/10 of 1%. switch of the board quickly -- euro-sterling, 74 pence. we are coming off the back of a five-day winning streak, dropping into negative territory. rhetoricll the hawkish around the bank of england in the dovish rhetoric around the ecb, that is not factored into this currency. what happened those calls? not bearing fruit right now. that is the fx situation -- let's move on to the political situation. the italian prime minister spoke exclusively to bloomberg's editor-in-chief last night on the sidelines of the u.n. general assembly. the situation in syria featured prominently in the discussion. take a listen. agreement we need an of a vast majority of countries to solve the problem of syria in syria.
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problemy there is a focused on the presence of assad, but i think the priority -- everymoments country involved in this parable -- we spent four years without a solution, couldn't find a compromise and agreement. personally, i think we have the absolute priority -- avoid a new leadership. >> that is why you criticize francois hollande for wanting, talking about military? >> or importantly, it was a criticism against nicolas sarkozy. sarkozy, because in
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this case, sarkozy and all their consensus ofhe international institutions, that wasn't by the italian government of the past. the legitimation of the intervention was absolutely intervention,n the initiatives against the dangerous dictators like gaddafi. without a strategy for the future. so today, after four years, we have the country -- our betiative in syria could solve the only if we problem for today and for tomorrow. jonathan: that is one of the
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views on the crisis in syria. it has been a topic of great debate at the 70th u.n. general assembly. everyone remains utterly divided. thatalism dictates compromise will be required to end the fighting and ultimately stand about isis. the realism also requires a managed transition away from assad into new leaders. finally knowledge that nobody but a sobs forces are truly fighting the islamic state in syria. root of thethe problem. he cannot be part of the solution. jonathan: ryan chilcote joins us now the studio. the contrasting messages from both sides of the debate -- if you went into this meeting in hopes of resolution, you would d be disappointed. ryan: and all you had to do was look at their body language. there was a dinner at the end of ban ki-moon
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smiled but they didn't clinked glasses. president putin has a cheeky smile on his face. these guys really don't like one another, or they have been told not to like one another publicly. perhaps president obama is really getting it from both ends in terms of his relationship with resident curtain. -- president putin. obviously he is perceived as going soft on putin. look, at the details of their 95 minute long discussion were capped at a quiet, -- were kept pretty quiet but there were two sticking points -- what happens to assad, how long is he allowed to remain in power? president clinton at least -- president putin made it clear that he is the only guy out there fighting isis.
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president obama says that he after 300,000hat people get killed you can just return to the status quo. is there a middle ground? it doesn't appear but we don't know the details. the other sticking point is who to bomb. president clinton has a -- president putin has a lot of troops and he has said that he is considering, unilaterally if necessary, airstrikes against the islamic state. he is just waiting for an invitation, and yesterday he said he wanted to build a broad coalition which may not include the united states if they don't want to join. all he is waiting for is an invitation from the government. but his definition of islamic state, of terrorist, may be slightly different than the white house, where they think it is a very specific group of people, but for obama is anyone fighting assad.
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they have to agree on that but coming away from the meeting, if you are enthusiastic that they would kiss and makeup, you would have definitely been disappointed. could they go further down the road and started cooperate in the future? perhaps. what they do have is their military and that is important. jonathan: final question. reporter presidents, to advisor, what would you say to these guys to get them together? does that scenario even exist? ryan: at this point, i think -- my advice, and this is a tricky one, because president obama doesn't have that much more time in power -- he is very constrained in the united states in terms of what he can do politically. president clinton has all the -- in has all the time in the world.
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in this particular case, these guys can probably do an awful lot very quietly, and that is what they may do. they sat in there for 95 minutes. it was probably a rather detailed conversation, and they chose not to give us the details. that suggests to me that they are looking at specific things about how to cooperate with syria. there are a lot of details, when you are up there and bombing, you have to communicate who is where, otherwise you can have a much bigger problem than the already extraordinarily large problem. jonathan: ryan chilcote, thank you. that is the political situation. the ftse 100 is trading lower, the reverse of yesterday. miners leading gains this morning after leading declines yesterday. glencore up 6.5%, marginally higher. is the ftse down by 7/10 of 1%. coming up, the doom and gloom so
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much this morning that carl icahn warns danger ahead. ,ore from the activist investor and janet yellen pushing the high-yield market. ♪
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>> i want to speak out now because i know the risks. i grew up in the streets of queens. i love this country and i feel so strongly about the dysfunction that is going on both in washington and in the boardrooms across america. look, i am not here to criticize the fed. but then again, you could argue that the fed got us into this to begin with with very low interest rates. and thismedicine, medicine is being given and given and given and we don't know what is going to happen. you don't know how bad the end of this is going to be. you do know that when you did a few years ago, because the catastrophe. here?do you draw the line jonathan: that is almost at for this hour. "the pulse" is coming up next. manus, danger ahead. i watch the video -- there is
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nothing substantially new in the video. he is just saying it all over again, a little more loudly. what was your take away? manus: he is giving a very stark warning. i think it very clearly personifies the domestic need in the united states of america. this is my subjective view. the personal need within the united states of america to raise rates versus the existential threat, which is a global commodity meltdown, slowdown in china. it is internal and external. that is essentially what this man is warning. and is also warning about the fed missing the opportunity to actually get on and raise rates. i think it is a beautiful piece. jonathan: very well produced, i might add. [laughter] jonathan: how will you cover in "the pulse?" manus: we will talk about the impact in terms of -- we have that exclusive interview from the italian prime minister --
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not overly concerned, it sounds like, about china. we will bring in hojavier. about --se -- what qatari, hello, are you there? ok, let's go private. is that a possibility? is that a probability? then you talk luxuries. do youaude biver -- have a hoopla? jonathan: i wish i did. manus cranny, coming up with francine lacqua after the break. stay with bloomberg. down by 30%,ks are the biggest move on record. a fresh record low but now they
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are up 5.5%, of the biggest losers yesterday. ftse down by 9/10 of 1%. that's it for me. best of luck for the rest of your day. ♪ .
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francine: global stocks selloff as glencore drops i a record in hong kong. it has bounced back in europe trading. manus: surprise flash. enda curran's -- india cuts benchmark rate. global economy is weakening. francine: in a bloomberg exclusive, matteo renzi talks china, exports and why the west these to bring russia back. >> russia is a great country with a great history and future. a future without russia is a mistake. ♪

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