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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 20, 2015 6:00am-7:01am EST

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there is gunfire. hostages taken and released. the news is a cacophony this morning in the former french sudan mali this morning, under jihadist siege. b hours ago, mario draghi said he would reinflate. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is friday, november 20. as of the week ago, we are looking at international relations and the clash of religions. francine: it is exactly what we're looking at, tom this raises questions about intelligence agencies and how we can work closer together and -- we have french great guests on set. : here is vonnie quinn
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with first word news. vonnie: we are following breaking news out of mali this morning. none man attacking the radisson blu hotel in the capital of bamako. rumor is that there are 170 hostages. the army commander tells the ap that 20 of the captives have been freed. until bloomberg there are u.s., french, and the in two malian citizens and one french citizen are dead. here are the latest of elements from paris. nearly one week after the attacks there, a third body found in a department that was rated two days ago. the body of an unidentified woman. the suspected ringleader of last week's attacks was killed in the raid. the european union is being urged to implement security
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measures that were passed earlier this year. ,nd the oldest mosque in france services are canceled because of security worries. we are also hearing this morning from the german interior ministry, a spokesman commenting in berlin, saying one of the attack suspects came through germany. the senate has not indicated whether it will take up the bill to temporarily block syrian and iraqi refugees from entering the u.s. president obama says he will veto such a bill. it passed by a wide margin yesterday. these another breaking stories, you can get 24 hours a day at the new bergright now to johannes as we look at the hostage moment in mali. , a streams are free
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of news. i have seen tweets and information out on media of turkish employees, chinese employees. it is an international community. pauline, when we look at mali rich in --ptional -- what exactly is the government of southwest mali, where bamako is? pauline: sorry, i did not get your question. tom: what is the government of southwest mali, where bamako is? it is not a democracy, is it? pauline: it is a democracy. elections recently. the elections went quite well, and the government is now trying to lead the fight against
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jihadists in the north, with help from the united nations. who financially backs that government fighting the jihadists? pauline: the government, when elected, provided donor money. human, billion dollars but there have to be some checks and balances in the government. because the previous government was seen -- they are really struggling to get their house in order, and that is what they are trying to do. but with the property that they have, -- with the poverty that they have, it is really difficult. vonnie: -- onncine: can you update us
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the situational on the ground? hostages have been released from the situation? forces, french forces, and malian troops are inside the hotel and they are trying to get the guests out. i also heard that the attackers are holed up on one floor of the hotel. butnot sure which floor, from what i understand, they might be cornered. it might be premature to say that, but it looks like they are trying to put in end to the hostage situation as quickly as possible. the let's set up mali, decolonization from france and then onto a very fractious state , and a lot of coup d'etats and such. here are the cape verde he thends, and here is
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capital, bamako, and the desert down here. the headline off the bloomberg terminal -- there are two lines marked where it is much more prosperous. but alsohere is oil, gold, uranium, phosphate. it is very rich in resources, -- the average capital average per capita income per year is $1500. tom: francine? francine: let's bring in andress hertley ofd james various mines in the various things we need to look at in terms of resources. the malian market is extremely illiquid, but they have gold mines. >> they are the third largest gold miner in africa after south africa and ghana. you have large companies like
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grand old operating there. juniors smaller operating there. it is a gold-rich area. if you go to the north, you have other resources that could be exploited. it is so desperate -- it is so desolate, there is no rail there. there are other valuable commodities that help other nations grow. francine: as we find out more about the attacks and the hostages that have been freed, there is no doubt in your mind that this is linked to paris last friday? >> it is the different groups that operate in mauritania and algeria. some supervisors islamic state, operate on their own, but there is no doubt this is in sympathy to the attacks on friday. the president of nigeria indicates he will destroy boko haram militants in the region
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are upping their attacks. tom: i will try to phrase this as best i can. with the poverty and the lack of hope, is there a distinction algeriae french between or the south africans or algeria and other arabs? what is that new in those impoverished parts of paris? ties -- there is a very clear distinction between what you might call the establishment and younger people . the establishment islamic organizations, many of whom -- the elders are descended from algerian and moroccan immigrants , the immigrants themselves. they have roundly condemned the attacks, obviously, of last
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week, and the charlie hebdo attacks earlier this year. with younger people, it is a whole different situation. for a lot of young people, their rhetoric is extreme. even pro-palestinian demonstrations, for which there is a lot of sympathy, the rhetoric there is also very extreme and hateful. i think it is more generational than anything else rather than national. that, -- tom: within that, do people of your region of west africa, is there hope and dream to get to paris? >> pauline, who was on earlier, did some good stories with senegal and the coast the last few months. people do go to southern europe or try to get even further, try to come from senegal, mali, ghana. even though some of these countries have become more
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stable, the flow of immigration has not stopped. successen as a sign of to get to paris, make some money, be able to come back home and set up your own shop there. it is not always about fleeing, like in the case of some of the refugees in syria. it has been quite stable for a while. more opportunities are being made, but still people go to paris and brussels. why? for as they can do more their families than they can in senegal. , andflow is quite strong the smuggling is ongoing. tom: well said. we are going to come back. we leave you right now with a good constructive headline. five turkish airline staff among those released in mali. that according to the turkish news agency. on an hour, more maybe two hours ago, the capture
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of 170 hostages in, co., far distant from timbuktu. bamako, far distant from timbuktu. stay with us. ♪
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua with tom keene. time for the bloomberg business flashed her here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: the world pass largest sporting goods company planning a $12 billion stock buyback. nike is coming off its most profitable year ever. bnp paribas must pay $60 billion -- $60 million.
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secrets revealed in the agreement will help the u.s. review worldwide. the wall street journal says it would be a record and that is the latest in bloomberg business flashed. tom: good morning, everyone. international relations are front and center today with a hostagetaking, a jihadist attack at the radisson blu hotel in mali. have a somewhat successful outcome with three dead, 20 hostages freed in the last hour. we are going to turn this to martinez outandres of ghana. it is about oil. christopher grisanti, who has been more than patient this morning, is a portfolio manager and has been pressured -- has been prescient on oil.
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-- also with us, vincent piazza. i believe our audience is conversant on opec and our security on oil. there are all these other players out there. mali. el tell me about the oil players at the margin like mali. this is critical for their economy. vincent: when you take a look at the grand scheme of it all, with respect to the global supply of crude -- when you think of geopolitics, sectarian violence in general, take for example capacity that has come off the market, i think operators, investors have become used to because of the
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geopolitics and the sectarian violence in general. you were in cycle. but is the mali commodity business and interior business to gold smelters there, or do you presume there are pipelines to italy from mali, or to france, for that matter? touches africa, most of the mina as well. in general when you take a look at the impact on oil, i think investors have become accustomed to these types of geopolitical events, and while in the past it may have played a greater role in their thinking about how to invest, i think they become more used to these types of exogenous events. tom: and those egg zogenix events are -- and those sense is events -- my they have all pulled back from the geopolitics.
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are you investing in big oil because it is international and in mali, or are you investing in oil because they are smarter than that? pulling backey are not just because of the geopolitical because -- but it is expensive to throw back to molly rather than in other places. we think the majors have great balance sheet and can get through this because we are attracted to them. we like american independence with good balance sheets, and those are down 30%, 40%. we think that is the real value. is: one of the advantages they are not in these expensive international regions, right? chris: it is just safer. vince: but if you get through, you'll see some of the weaker folks drop off as they cannot afford this environment, and you will get stronger. they are working in egypt as well.
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they certainly are. when you look at security west africa, people point to nigeria where they have huge oil reserves. andres covers the region. attack -- in nigeria, security concerns could escalate there. north, security in the where boko her mom is isolated, is already pretty bad. you had -- where boko her ro -- where boko haram is bad. ram has not attacked that part of the country there. there are other issues there. there is theft, 200,000 barrels a day there, quite a bit of money, and that limits what the government can do. are not issues that are
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tied to each other. if you want to operate him many different countries, you're not facing one problem, you're facing two or three. gold, they ared different issues and you cannot face them in the same way. you have to pick very closely where you want to operate and what you want to do, or you choose to be exposed to many different kinds of risks that cannot be exposed in the same way. tom: this is the emotion of what we have seen in mali right now. as his twitter, my twitter feed. this is one of the esteemed businessmen of africa. mali, hemored to be in is putting out a tweet saying he is fine. he was in the hotel yesterday. some of the flow that we are seeing off twitter -- that from one of africa's leading businesspeople. stay with us.
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as we look at the economic consequences and the international relations of a jihadist attack in mali or this is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" from new york and london this morning. we are following a jihadist attack at a mali hotel. the news flow is exceptional coming out of bamako, mali. chris cressotti is with us as we look at the equity markets -- gristani is with
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us as we look at equity markets. how does use of cash change? chris: cash is just a terrific asset class right now. we see the market kind of heavy, topping out. leading to gains in the market, and most of those in the gains area -- most of those in the tech area right now. if we do not have an idea that gets over a pretty high hurdle rates -- tom: let's frame this. within mutual funds, 2% to 4% is is, oh, i'm so7% conservative! chris: after the october massive rally, which we think was a snap back but not fundamentally driven, now we are looking at trying to find things that will
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be a sideways to down market going forward. if not, we like to cash. francine: when i look around the world, and we have a conversation about whether -- about how we calculate risk around the world, or what we are seeing in terms of terror attacks, are you concerned we are in a bubble-like territory? equities, andat what i see is not so much a bubble but kind of a heaviness. and what is going to take us to the next level? the not really afraid of economy in the united states. it is decently strong, employment is good, and inflation is under control. but where our profits going to come from? we have trouble answering the question, so we are going to where we think the action will be in a year or two. frankly we think that will be in the energy sector any, -- in the energy sector or commodities. tom: you love airlines.
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chris: we do, and folk still hate them. they can buy stock back, take care of their shareholders in a lot of ways. tom: christopher cressotti is with us, with his use of cash -- . we will continue our coverage on mali again, and there is ever-changing news. andres martinez is with us, onset, our bureau chief from ghana. and pauline bax will join us again from south africa as well as we look at the economics and politics of a fractured mali. stay with us. "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.
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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. tom: it is another friday, folks. breaking again. a jihadist attack, this in mali, the landlocked nation, a former french colony.
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hostages taken at the radisson blu hotel in bamako. this is in western mali. some hostages were freed recently. these are pictures that have just come in from mali. you can see the chaos, clearly, an international group of people at this international hotel, doing business almost always on commodities in mali. fabius of france is speaking. he says the u.n. is a more official way of fighting. troops would probably disagree with him. he is the france minister of foreign affairs and trade, and he says there are french personnel install in mali, and they will be taking action. tom: let's get to news this morning. we have much more. vonnie: breaking news on the west african capital. taking front and center stage,
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three gunmen storming a hotel in bamako. early reports say three people are killed. 20 captives have been free. about 170 were believed to be held. a u.n. official says there were u.s. and mali and troops in the hotel. it is sending security reinforcements. here are the latest violence from paris. a third body found an apartment that was rated two days ago -- the city prosecutor says it is the body of an unattended five -- of an unidentified woman. germany says the suspected ringleader who was killed innsited through germany 2014. the interior minister says he was free to travel as a belgian citizen and was not on a wanted list. britain's interior minister is urging the european union to implement border security measures passed earlier this year. and a solidarity meeting that canceleded was because of security worries. you can get breaking news 24
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hours a day on francine, i believe you have more with pauline bax. francine: i do. let's get to her from johannesburg on the phone. she is very familiar with the hotel where the attacks took place. pauline, what we understand, since the attacks started 2.5 hours ago, u.s. and french military entered the hotel where there were 120 hostages. do we have it confirmed that 20 hostages were freed? hauling cap that is what we are hearing. -- pauline: that is what we are hearing. we have not been able -- francine: we are having a couple of difficulties getting pauline on the phone. some of the telephone lines across the world do not work as we hoped they would.
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let's get straight to our guests in the studio, with us for the whole hour. we have great experts, the managing editor -- and as martinez is with our west african bee bureau chief. is the linkage clear at this moment, or can we just say that these terrorist groups have global reach and we need to act? one has taken responsibility yet for the attacks, and usually that -- nobody has taken responsibility yet for the attacks. usually that takes a day or two. groups operating in mali, niger, boko haram rom and other groups -- boko haram and other groups -- they may not be sharing operations, but it is definitely a ramping
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up in nigeria. francine: and of course there is a very strong french link. there are 1000 troops in mali. what can you tell us, to give us context? not the most secure place, but this is an attack that we have never seen a scale this big. andres: these people are working for airline company's, businessmen, not heard of in this part of mali. in the north, where the coup was led from islamic militants -- it is a desolated part of the world, so the attacks are few and far between. when the french got involved in the former colony in 2013, they were able to push back this threat and isolated. since then, the french have widened their presence. they have maybe 3000, 4000 troops across west africa and
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central africa. a have -- they have a drum base niger.chair -- in tom: jim hertling, i am taken by headlines. fabius he is the foreign minister. i am going to call him the john kerry of the republic of france. u.n. tous wants the solve what we are observing. how do the french people react to that? jim: the french people are of two mines. there is a nationalist that are of two minds. there is a nationalist element that wants to strike back, but at the same time they know they have been in the region, troops have been in their region for
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years now, and obviously the situation is not getting any better. are a number of failed states or failing states. problems.tioned international dimensions are required at the political level. francine: let's get back to pauline. you have covered mali for many years. you have stayed at the hotel that was attacked by terrorists this morning. what do we know about the people inside, the hostages? how many have been freed? have reportsar we that 20 people have been freed. that is from one of the mali an army spokesman. as we know, the troops are inside the hotel. are trying to get the guests to safety.
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francine: how much was a shock -- how much of a shock was this? we have not seen the scale of this. there has since been a power vacuum. pauline: there has been. there is an elected government now. the government does not have a need to fight the attacks especially in the south, but there has been a really awful attack a few months back at a , a late-night attack where six people died. there have been fears already that the attacks might move from the north, where most of the u.n. peacekeepers have been targeted, to the south to target civilians. tom: pauline, thank you so much. pauline bax, on short notice in johannesburg this morning. jim hertling, we spoke with hans nichols earlier.
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chancellor merkel's dialogue has changed with her people. in is speaking to her party germany. these events will change that speech. -- howchancellor merkel has chancellor merkel adapted and adjusted to paris, and now bamako? jim: she has been pretty clear that she is not budging from her policy, her relatively liberal policy toward accepting refugees. there might be some tweaks along the edges, but she has been stalwart, as has been francois hollande, following the paris attacks. reiterated -- he that he is sticking by his policy to accept 30,000 refugees. both of them are aware that there is a larger internal struggle for them. especially for francois hollande, where there is --
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france has the largest muslim population. they have domestic issues that they need to balance as well as international relations. does this latest attack in mali force a more copper hints of solution for hotspots in the middle east? comprehensive solution for hotspots in the middle east? jim: there will be a public policy response. it is the e.u., and they move incrementally, but they will do something, without question. in terms of the military response to the hotspots, you have the russians, the americans, the french, dropping lots of bob's on islamic state and syria -- dropping lots of bombs on islamic state in syria. tom: i want to bring the headlines and the confusion that is out there right now. reuters is reporting three of seven turkish staff, said to
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escape. i have an exact headline next to it saying five personnel have been released, so i want to make clear the headlines we are seeing have a confusion, francine, of their own. don't you agree? francine: yes, and we have seen this in the past. there are security forces from various countries. for sure is that u.s. and french military forces entered the radisson blu where gunmen took 170 hostages. we will try to get to the bottom of any more breaking news we have and bring those to you later.
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tom: we are one friday on from paris, and now bamako in mali, this is mali, south of nigeria.
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there have been some hostages released. there is some good news in the strategy. it is in the very poor commodity rich nation of mali. there has been civil war, i will general with the taking and two jihadists 100 70 hostages. we know of three dead at this time. let's get to our bloomberg business flash her here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: a deadline today for deadline today -- for volkswagen today. --y must tell regulators newly have a million vw models in america alone have software that tricks in missions tests. bank is 2016 could be the year that emerging markets turnaround. a unit of bnp bara bob -- of bnp
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to settle taxay crimes. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. tom: the headline this morning is in mali. mario draghi is speaking, i know francine wants to get to that in a minute. my headline this morning is that chris grisanti, who is very cash and interest is 20% in cash to have you ever been more cautious? chris: we have been more cautious provide do not want to mischaracterize it. we are not super cautious and we do not think there is a crash around the corner, we just are not missing much. tom: is it a value trap right now? chris: i do not think it is if you look out two or three years. if you look out two or three years, oil production declined .
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on moments of panic where oil touches 40, we nubile in a little. we may trim our position when oil gets back to 50 or 55, not in the commodity itself, but in certain investment-grade companies in the u.s. oil sector. play european equities versus u.s., setting the scene -- as mario draghi setting the scene for further stimulus. that will have an impact on euro, and they may look like a cheaper deal. : the consensus view for 90% of the street is that this will lead to a stronger dollar and a weaker euro. what if what mario draghi is doing works and what if the fed slows our economy a little bit? you could make a scenario where in six months the dollar is lower. that.nk nobody expects it may come to pass. that may be an investment
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advantage. francine: would you buy european equities? chris: we would not because our specialty is domestic equities. we are avoiding multinational, so we still think the u.s. economy is the place to play it. we have strength here. we are thinking 2.5% growth in 2016. tom: very good, chris grisanti with us this morning as we look at value. we are going to have much more on mali. we see out on twitter -- i do not have it confirmed directly with air france, but they have canceled their paris to bamako flight. 20 hostages freed in mali great stay with us. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." the forex report, dollar-yen stronger right now. i really want to point out a resilient euro. many thought it would be much worse, a little weaker here. under 132 gets my attention. . am looking at euro-sterling
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toncine: we are trying figure out the fallout from the security concern. the paris attacks were only seven days earlier. now we are talking about friday morning with french and u.s. troops entering the malian hotel where gunmen where -- where gunmen were holding 120 hostages. security forces we are told are moving room to room and trying to take guests out of the hotel in the center set -- in the city center. we do not know if the operation is ongoing or if it is finished. it is very difficult to get precise details once these things start. let's get to our guests in the studio. andres martinez is one of the most eminent experts in africa.
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one of the points that we were making is that this will pose huge security threats from neighboring countries as well. do they have the capability to secure it? andres: if you turn to the original forces of the different countries there, you have a hodgepodge of forces. some of them are not well trained or equipped, and some of them have a lot of respect like the ghanaian forces or the senegalese forces. some of them do not have the resources nor the money. you are also seeing -- we' -- we are past the end of the commodities boom. they made a lot of money and were able to spend on infrastructure, improving trade length and all kinds of things, improving the military, governance. they do not have that money now, so they have to turn again back to the former powers. u.k.., the
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that is where the money is going to have to come from. tom: there is a discussion of thought., or islamist part of that idea is the conservative, more traditional, less polarized islam will push back against the jihadists. where does that debate stand from morocco and algeria, south across western islam? andres: it really depends. you have countries like senegal, where there is a long tradition 99% muslim. you start moving south and east in west africa, and 80%, 90% is muslim population. molly is 90%. you do not see the radical movements that have infiltrated. you see a battle between the different ideologies. the saudi's are active, the moroccans are active. they support different mosques and schools and teachers.
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they take them back to casablanca, back to riyadh, and this is to counter some of those more radical thoughts. the groups that have come to west africa have generally been from north africa. tom: jim, wonderful to speak with you today, after i am sure what has been an exhausting week. is there any sense of normalcy returning to the different districts? jim: you know, it is impossible areask around these -- without ang feeling of normalcy. , memorialsv trucks that have been set up at the the despicabler acts last week. they have gone up, people have
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taken photos, and people are having their own silent vigils. so in that part of the city, it is pretty clear to read by the same token, there are still plenty of people -- it is pretty clear. by the same token, there are still 20 of people -- you feel like it is not a normal environment in the eastern part of the city. in the western part of the city, there is no evidence that anything untoward happened. if you are the french foreign minister, how would you look at the attacks in mali? because they are dealing with so much at home, is there concern that they will retry? jim: fabius made the point that they need the u.n.'s help here. if you are france, and really do need to pick your spots. obviously, they are the dominant foreign power in mali. but in terms of -- france cannot
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become the u.s. france cannot become the neighborhood policeman. they do not have the resources or the interest. singlee: this is the deadliest attack that we have seen of this sort in the region. andres: when you are excluding nigeria, it definitely is. skirmishes,re battles, foreign war, but when it comes to targeting civilians, this is the largest in mali. ,he last one was in bamako where five people were shot to death in a restaurant. we have not seen that in any other country. there have been kidnappings in mauritania and in other countries, but not 170 civilians at once. francine: thank you so much for joining us, as we discovered the news with you on "bloomberg maliillance," a siege in
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starting 2.5 hours ago. we are trying to find out if it is -- if it has ended or not. we will have plenty more on the attacks on "bloomberg ." to recap, we found out that u.s. and french military forces have entered the radisson blu hotel in mali, where gunmen took 170 hostages. we understand that 20 have been freed, according to the associated press. we will have plenty more details on the terror threat that is a cause of concern for the world. ♪
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david: breaking news. 170 people have been taken hostage in a hotel in mali. ipo, shares soar
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45%. it ain't over until it is over. what yogi berra could teach us about investing, according to howard marks. it is friday, and welcome to "bloomberg ." i'm david westin. stephanie: i'm stephanie ruhle. lots to cover. 170 hostages are being held in mali. we have that and a lot more, but for its list get you first word news with vonnie quinn. u.s. and french troops have entered the hotel in the african nation of mali. three people have been killed. in mali's capital, by mike:


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