tv On the Move Bloomberg December 10, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EST
it will be a busy day. let's go to the touch screen with caroline hyde. caroline: it was still a negative day in europe. and likely to be another negative day. this is how we closed yesterday. 4 of 1%. up by 3/ are likely to see a little bit of negative risk appetite going into a flurry of central bank nonaction. we will be hearing from the s&p head. as believed into those central-bank decisions, the 5100 is up by 2/10 of 1%. americanly saw anglo and glencore start to gain as copper managed to turn around yesterday and today.
a look at how we are doing. we are expecting nothing this morning. .51 british pound is at 1 pounds to the dollar. ride it has been with the pound versus the dollar. we will see that first rate hike since 2006. let's look at we are doing with commodity payouts. over the past month it has been a dismal story for the oil payouts. we have had a little bit of a reprieve, up 3/10 of 1%. the first reduction in u.s. inventories in 11 weeks. brent is rising up above the $40 mark. metals are getting a little bit of a push higher. what is glencore doing?
is it pushing higher as well? more ambitious cuts to capital expenditure and to its debt load. pushed up higher by 4%. this is related to crops. it is crop protection. this is about bid speculation. willie see a chinese buyer coming in for syngenta? 2.5%.di up we will wait for glencore to open, but i would like to see this mining stock up once again. i would like to show you something quickly before we go to asia. the finance minister is being fired. this is all mutual this morning. the biggest loser on the 5100. we are seeing ripple effects into the equity story.
let me take you to asia now with heidi. eidi: here in asia, we did see moderate gains. those gains are down by .5%. just in the last half-hour, trade is up 2/10 of 1%. interest rates remain at 1.5%, as expected. in new zealand, rates are cut to record lows. that did not help when it comes to kiwi shares, unfortunately. it was a lower day in shanghai. financials were sold off quite a bit. mental services, these are the security brokerages, staging quite a relief rally. this segment has gone down on the back of the regulatory crackdown. there is an investigation into misconduct in insider trading.
securities are up by 5%. expectations what we are going to see is reforms, the registration system coming in from beijing. inhad that huge fee australia. that did not help with the broader markets. we did see a broader recovery. we've seen quite a lot of pain in the past few sessions. by 11%.s up tinto is up 2.4%. the japanese stocks for the brunt of the selloff today. the yen surged to its highest in three months and as a result, casio is down by 3%. olympus is down by just shy of
3%. you.back to the asian markets. let me tell you what is coming up. first up, the quality crunch with glencore's debt targets. then, the swiss national bank's rate decision. then, the firing of the finance minister. coleman with goldman sachs. ♪ we are waiting for glencore to open in london. glencore announced new financial targets as part of its business update today. they're cutting debt targets. let's get more details from ryan chilcote. the markets are still short. have they done enough to turn this around.
ryan: we don't have the shares, what they are trading at yet in london, but they are up in joe berg. we've seen that in asia. they're going to cut debt. that is what this has been about. do we have it up right now? it just opened, just below 6%. that is a strong open. when it comes to glencore, it is volatile stock. investors are liking these new goals for debt reduction. in a statement earlier, they said they intend to cut debt to $18 billion-$19 billion. previously, it had been in the llion.0 bi the other thing we learn from glencore is how they are going to achieve that. toically, that is in capex the tune of 1.5 billion dollars,
less than they had previously forecast. also, asset sales. about asseted a lot sales. the previous target was to raise $2 billion in asset sales. they now want to raise or billion dollars. many questions remain. i am sure eisenberg will be asked all of those questions when they have the conference call at 8:30 london time. guy: need to think about a big moving context. this stock has been pummeled and were are not even back up on a month. we are nowhere near where we started the month. there is a lot of pressure to get this one moving. that is the year today, 70%. we have a long way to go. this is a holding action.
ultimately, with the demand side of this story, a lot is out of his control. ryan: there is a lot out of his control. one court made it clear that they will cut production and further, if necessary. they did that before and it was marginally successful in terms of cost and pricing in terms of commodities. with the freeport do that yesterday. they are the world's largest trading copper producer. company isthe focused on balancing this debt issue. right now, he wants to avoid an increase in funding costs. he wants to avoid a downgrade to the company's debt rating. if he keeps accelerating the debt cuts the maybe he can get ahead of the curve. we saw with anglo american the other day, they announced this
radical transformation. the investors said it was not enough. guy: thank you, ryan. remember, the senior independent executive director at bloomberg. , we have aon set senior analyst. >> good morning. guy: have they done enough this morning? reporter: they are taking decisive action here. they are taking unprofitable par ts out of the business. they are removing negative free cash flow from the business and therefore, protecting the balance sheet. the conviction on where commodity prices are going is very low at the moment.
they are responding to market conditions. billion is still a big number one it comes to the debt. >> it is a big number, but it is manageable. $7.7 billion is well above what most in the market were expecting. that has a very big impact on the credit metrics. will they be able to successfully extend their credit rating? that number suggests the credit rating has improved. guy: to have any idea how the trading businesses are forming? >> they have reiterated that they are up $2.5 billion, which is positive. they have provided a range for next year as well, which is broadly in line for what consensus was as well. they seem to be suggesting that the trading business is
performing quite well. think that will increase in confidence that the business is actually performing and providing a defensible stake for the mining business. guy: to take a back to the previous thing you're talking about, which is, the idea that current prices are ok. in six months time, to prices byd to be higher or lower standard deviation? owve us a sense of ho beard geared they are to that story? >> even if prices move materially lower from these levels. i am sure the market will push tha they have given themselves a lot of roomt. to play with.
even with these commodity price levels, the sensitivity to arnings is absolutely enormous. guy: can ask a related, but different question? ram has fallen even further. happensl play on what in south africa. are there any positives in this for the mining sector? how shall i read what is happening in south africa related to the mining sector? >> what we have seen is obviously an effect of this move by summa that the rand has depreciated. that helps mining costs. it is a short-term tailwind for them, but it will lead to more domestic inflation.
for the long-term, it is somewhat concerning and not ideal, but in the short, it does provide some reprieve. guy: to bring you win, daniel. we have talked a little bit about the emerging markets. we are seeing huge depreciation and big elements of the emerging russia,world of brazil, south africa, turkey as well. , these look into 2016 incredible positions, we have 44 seen since january, years ago. for them to go in some of these stories? >> there is always room for them to fall further. they need to find balance with regards to supply and demand.
this is a tricky balance that a companies have us a way to offset the pressures they are facing. that then what does that mean for domestic inflation? do they then subsequently need to raise rates to support debts. for some of these countries, the fall of commodity prices does help by bringing in this disinflationary pressures. it varies for each country, though. guy: thank you. it is a developing story, quite quickly. from bnp paribas will stay with us. we will show you an interesting morning for the vw. frankfurt. by 9% in
the aussi dollar surged. 71,000 people found work in november. economists had expected a drop of $10,000. it brings up the on implement right down to 5.8%. the finance minister was fired yesterday and the currency fell 5.5% against the dollar. the outgoing minister clashed with government colleagues about pay increases for workers and proposals to build a nuclear power industry. morning, we have the first extended news conference scandthe missionemissions l broke. guy: thank you. we are joined now by naomi. i guess my first question is, what are they speaking today? what is the objective here?
naomi: i think what they are trying to do is get their first briefing on the status of the investigation. they have been investigating this cheating scandal since september and now they have a whistleblower program over at the end of november. there was an expectation that they would have something to say to investors. guy: let's talk chemistry. co2 yesterday, good news. walk us through it. i: yesterday, vw eliminated the co2 part of the scandal. he said there are far fewer cars effected by the co2 readings. only 36,000. irregularities were not
discrepancies that would be illegal. that was good news yesterday for vw. guy: we still have to deal with anox. what are we going to find out today about that one? naomi: the biggest question about nox will remain unanswered until later this month when the epa will announce whether or not they are going to accept vw fix for diesel cars in the u.s. that will be big news. that is a major think they are waiting for. guy: i am looking for to hearing the questions on that subject. thank you very much, indeed. i am told berlin is watching this very carefully. so difficult to trade these stories. we are not going to make trading
decisions on this program. nevertheless the less, communications remains the difficult part of how companies react. it is so volatile and difficult to make these take positions following these scandals. when you look at the kind of corporate governance, how is it possible to get any kind of addictive indicators as to what will happen next? sriiel: with the esg or companiesvernance is, perform well under these type of metrics. the also tend to get better corporate ends with it. what seemed to be ancillary indicators seem to be good indications of what you will find in terms of corporate governance. that gives you more stability and the investment. and, a smaller chance of
yesterday was sunnty and warm. we are going to focus on the bank of england. littlele rate is a softer this morning. will bew the snb reacting as well. central banks are still the primary determinants of everyt ing. >> seems to be. guy: where are the surprises coming from? is it the fact that the ecb does less than we think? i think one of the takeaways from what happened with the ecb that will go through to the fed is to hopefully, it would better and clearly so you don't get the upset. i think at this point, there is less of a risk at the surprise of a fed announcement.
you will have the 25 basis points, but relatively soft language. hopefully, improving from the fed and going back to the ecb, the same thing. hopefully, we get a more consistent message that lines up with what they actually do. better imwill be a age of what they do. guy: who has the hardest job, yellen or draghi? >> i think draghi. guy: you will stay with us, we will talk about central banks. this is the chart that tells a story of the year of the central bank. remember what happened last january when the tank disappeared?
nb maintains its rate. that would still be quite a surprising number if you were coming back from mars. their target level is -.25%. pretty much no activity from the snb this morning. we will remain active in the foreign exchange market is needed. that is something we will watch as well. negative rate, willingness to intervene, etc. gdp at 1.5%.
gdp at 15 around 1%. argue, is the toughest job in central banking. did not go, as some had expected. daniel morris from bnp paribas . question.e wrong i estimate with the toughest question in central banking. it is actually jordan? daniel: it is hard to see what is going on with the currency and how he will turn that around. switzerland is a unique case. it just makes this job that much more difficult to some degree. switzerland is the victim of its own success in an environment when people still have concerns about the euro. guy: it is significantly overvalued and they don't see
inflation positive until 2016. -.2 5% previously, but they don't see it going positive until 2017. that is a long time. daniel: japan is the kiss of what you don't want to do. -- japan is the example of what you don't want to do. guy: they try to push through the negative rate, but still, they say the currency is significantly overvalued. a are blown around by the winds of much bigger central banks. jonathan ferro is normally sitting next to me. what are your thoughts on what we have heard so far?
let me read you back through what they are saying. everything on hold. they still say the currency is significantly overvalued. if the inflation does not pick up until 2017. it is a tough place to be for thomas jordan. >> it really is, guy. i have asked him about it credibilities. nobody listens to the central bank. they need some hard policy changes and they have limited space. 5%.y are at -.7 inflation is nowhere to be seen. the question everyone will ask at this meeting, you keep saying you can do more. fine, when? guess, we are probably asking those questions in the wrong place.
he is effectively being pushed around by others. his policies are being determined not by where you are, but by frankfurt. jonathan: exactly. if there was one man with a fat smile, it was thomas york. it is very much short-term. that is not the trend. the trend is against them. 2017.olicy, tighten up in they still cut to -.3%. he wants to keep rate differentials in the euro safer. is -.75% the effective lower bound? that is a big question for today, guy. about swiss army
knives. he still is if you to pull out. what are they? jonathan: you can cut rates again. i don't know what else they can do. assets andy buying intervening. they have already built up significant holdings as well. already thesheet is norginormous. i don't think they want it at $1.10. they will have to hope the economy does not fall off the cliff. things are terrible and switzerland. the people are ok. this is not europe, it is switzerland. guy: so, a key question? what are the other tools? what else can you do?
what is the can opener look like when you pull it out? is there a question about whether or not he is the right man to lead this. him, bute upset with is there's someone more aggressive waiting in the wings. jonathan: i don't think so. this is the third time i have come here to cover the snb this year. he is aggressive. nobody is listening, though. if draghi says, i can do more, you listen. if yellen says, i can do more, you listen. is dead policy option because of january. that is theoptions, real difficulty. the fact that nobody listens anymore. the currency is seriously overvalued. will the fx market react? have a guess.
guy: that is my question. you have talked about the idea that there is a credibility gap. i him wondering how ultimately you saw that credibility gap. jonathan: i don't think you can in the short-term. i think you have to sit this one out and hope the euro-swiss stabilizes and hope the company does not fall off the cliff. and maybe, you pull the trigger on that if you have a conversion. at this point, after last week, the pressure has come off a little bit. the fed is set to hike. off allar-swiss is little bit. there is an aggressive amount of cutie that iqe. i guess, they have to sit and bide their time.
$1.10 is the marker. if we approach the parity story again, that is when they are backed into a corner. guy: the euro swiss is trading at $1.08 at the moment. we believe that there and be back with jonathan ferro a little bit later on. he will be speaking with the swiss national bank president shortly. we will have that on later in the morning. did not miss that. central banking is critical right now. daniel morris from bnp paribas is still with us. andvalued currencies undervalued currencies. how big a guide is that in had you make investment decisions? daniel: it will certainly be a big part. this goes back to when we think
about emerging markets. we need to be at a point where isthink the potential gain going to offset whatever depreciation you get. that has not been the case so far. my think in 2016 we will see a turnaround because the potential is there they are going to turn around, we believe, and when they do, he will get a pickup to offset the currency. i have south africa, turkey, brazil. i have all of these currencies that have been crunched hard. i am looking at the world through the prism and that is one of the key metrics by which i make investment decisions. it is a really tough place to invest right now. daniel: i think the point it
brings up, especially in emerging markets is, on one point we do need profitability for companies. it also highlights the political risk in emerging markets plays both ways. you can see the turnaround potential in argentina. you get a sense there is a change in terms of politics in brazil. overwill be a key driver the next year. if you do get a change in political leadership, to the implement the reforms that need to be same to adapt to the new world order? guy: we will talk about south africa, coming up next. daniel morris, joining us from bnp paribas. let me take you to poland. david cameron is there. a lot of tension between these two countries right now, the u.k. and poland. the reason for that is the migration story. david cameron wants to change some of the rules regarding migration around europe. two countries have agreed to
guy: welcome back. we are here to with the bloomberg's first news. >> the official cash rate was cut to a record low of 2.5%. its fourth rate cut should be enough to return inflation to its 2% target. the kiwi dollar jumped on the news. dollars search. more than 71,000 people found work in november. economists had expected a drop of 10,000. that puts the employment rate down to 1.8%. hiring plansbed with broader economic uncertainty. according to a survey by morgan mckinley, steph was cut in
london as regulators led to shore on capital. guy:r thank you very much. rand was dropped to a record low since september. this is after the president fired the finance minister. let's go to johannesburg. the goldman sachs partner and managing director,:c colin coleman. colin: the finance minister was let go. this led to downward pressures on asset prices, as you see in the rand and some of the equities. they have fallen significantly
this morning. guy: we try to understand the impact that this will have. what do you think it will be. we have a finance minister ousted and a currency that continues to fall. we have levels we have not seen in 40 years. how difficult is the investment story surrounding the country? to date, south africa has a good story to tell relative to turkey, for instance. we have a very traded currency and very low levels of foreign debt. we have fiscal discipline. this will bring the focus on the fiscal discipline question and last week's rating outlook b minus.s at triple we will watch very carefully as to where the fiscal discipline
will be maintained. for the rating purposes, for the cost of capital and the overall they, what happens in february budget of 2015-2016, next february will be critical. south africa has a continued responsibility to fiscal discipline. we have growth of 1.2% this year. toproject growth in 2016 up 1.5%. these are levels below the 3% growth rate in the past few years. many people may feel that this is another goal that has been scored. the question is, how will the finance treasury team respond to these new developments? guy: let me ask you that very question. the rand continues to drop. domestic inflation is likely to be a big story, and a difficult
want to deal with. how do you think the bank will deal with that and work their way through this incredibly difficult position in front of them? colin: we have the potential fed rate increase, plus commodity price pressures. those factors compound what you have described. i think south africa's reserve offered ahas difficult position. inflation is certainly rising. strengths of the south africa has been the strong independence of the south african reserve bank. i believe they will continue that track record. is, who is the new finance minister? we don't know what his trajectory will be and how independent and strong he will be in terms of treasury management and fiscal discipline? guy: when you talk to your partners and clients, is the politics are having to talk
about. you have to explain the intricacies and the nuances of what is happening with south african politics? this is the increasingly unknown factor, as you have already alluded to. colin: certainly, the macro issues play very large. corporate positions are not known to wait for development. the d'arnaud to take their own toions -- they are known take their own actions. africa remains a strong investing story on the footsteps of south africa. that neighborhood is very strong. i think clearly, these macro christians will accelerate existing plans that corporate has put in place. guy: in some eyes, when commodities are dropping, you want your currency to drop as well. is there a silver lining here?
twon: i think there are factors. we have a depreciating currency. the second is, as the currency depreciates, because the majority of our revenues are offshore dollar-based revenues, the balance sheets of the country are enhanced and strengthened on the back of rand weakness. it is one of the ironies of the south african environment. i think the institutions in london understand as well. you're getting the african growth story, but you are also getting a diversified african and non-south african figure. colin coleman, from goldman sachs. it will be an interesting story. conundrum.rney's
in 30 minutes, it we have the u.k. trade. we have the vw press conference, the first one since the emissions scandal. then, the u.k. rate decision. in 30 minutes, it we have the u.k.carney, he has got a littlet of time to wait. predicting that he is going to wait and watch and see how the fed and the ecb perform. >> the euro strengthening against a whole host of currencies is something the bank will. they mentioned last month that they were a little bit concerned about the strength of the pound. the pound weakening against the euro, which is the u.k.'s biggest trade partner, is something they will welcome. they will not strike and overly hawkish tone.
they will be happy with what has gone on in the past month. they are not happy with the fact that the first rise is priced for early 2017. i think that is the way they will look at it. guy: you can look at the currency and look at the story domestically. you look at what is happening in the service sector. you look at unsecured lending numbers. they are beginning to heat up pretty quickly. >> the lending side of the equation is something that is interesting to them and something they will vote to address through an increase of macro policies in 2016. domestically the numbers are ok. the u.k. economy seems reasonably buoyant, but the somethingtmosphere is that has made their realization
of the inflation target a little bit dicey. is like, we have a lots of new toys and want to play with them before we met around with the old ones. >> it broadens their impact to impact the economy by using different parts of the economy. central banks everywhere have fiscal challenges that their respective governors place upon them. they have a big toolbox of policies they can enact. richard, nice to see you. stay with bloomberg. we have a great interview coming up. jonathan ferro will be speaking with the swiss national bank president shortly. we will bring you that interview life here on bloomberg later this morning. that is coming up shortly.
francine: central-bank watch. new zealand cuts rates for the fourth time this year. the boe is up next. mining meltdown. balance sheets are bloated because of the commodity rout and glencore cuts that. and carmakers give their first big press conference since the emissions scandal. we will find out more on how the y cheated on diesel emissions. and the argentine outgoing president refused to attend the ceremony, handing power to the president-elect.