tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg December 23, 2015 11:30am-12:01pm EST
in caroline hyde as we wrap up trade over the next 30 -- 30 minutes. caroline? caroline: yeah, betty, we finally got it -- the santa rally is on. we are playing catch up with united states, and this year's laggards are the leaders -- oil, mining, stocks, they are jumping, betty. the european close starts now. betty: and we are going to take you from new york to london in the next half-hour hour, and caroline, you are wearing my favorite color, but it is not the color on your screen right now. i am wearing the opposite colors, but i did hear you are a fan of red. we have a sea of green. this is the santa rally -- the every single stock
is climbing, not one is in the red to match my color. the same thing in france. a full-fledged santa rally. let's look into history -- industry-group wise. laggards become leaders. the same thing is happening the u.s. because oil is rising. inventory numbers pushing wti --de higher, and minor miners are also higher as well. betty: specifically one steelmaker helped by the story of u.s.. caroline: fascinating story that sent one stock of higher. it is the biggest dealmaker in the entire world. check this out -- up 10.9%, having its rest day since 2009. the u.s. commerce department saying they want to tax china's import, saying they are delusion
the markets with cheap imports. how do you tackle that -- of the tax rate 256% -- phenomenal news, helping the steelmakers that are going to be selling into the u.s.. betty: that is right. the steelmakers here have been fighting war that, caroline, and i know that was a huge deal -- fighting for that, caroline, and i know that was a huge deal. over here in the u.s., the markets are higher, not just on the oil inventory numbers we saw about an hour ago, but on some of the economic numbers we had this morning. personal spending coming in, up .3%. personal income also higher than expected, as well as consumer sentiment. we had one, sort of, overhang on the markets when it comes to new home sales. a decline, -- not but a smaller than expected gain in new home sales. again, a little bit of a mixed -- of economic numbers, however that oil inventory number
really, really keeping the markets up. in the meantime, let's check in on our bloomberg first word news. courtney donohoe has more from the news desk. courtney: let's that with presidential race -- the next republican is venture debate could include as few as six candidates. fox is this is using a new criteria to be the qualifiers for primetime engineering 14. the rest of the 13 gop hopefuls will be in the preliminary event. a poll of republicans nationwide shows 39% back donald trump, more than his next three challengers combined. three people were killed when a car and an amtrak challenger train crash in indiana. police say three were sent to the hospital. amtrak says the sunset limited train was en route from los angeles to new orleans when it hit a vehicle on the tracks at a crossing. there were 119 passengers on the train. no passengers or crew were hurt.
global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 115 news euros around the world. i am courtney donohoe. betty: much more ahead on the european close --should steal from china be taxed? that is what the u.s. commerce department, as caroline was noting, is saying. why this is a game changer and which compass are getting hit today. carrierof discount spirit airlines is in high spirit for the new year's. he expects a busy season this holiday travel season. ♪\
next year, an economist highlighted a british exit, the referendum on its membership in the eu, has a potential threat to growth there. caroline: they did. 56% of the economist said the u.k. exit from the eu and from anyn affects buildup to the vote are the key risks facing the u.k. economy in 2016. here is what the former u.k. foreign secretary had to say about the threat just earlier on .bloomberg < go>" it is a risk. i would not say there is a likelihood, but significant risk of the next. caroline: significant risk of annex a. let's get more on that with gabriel stein. let's get your view on the u.k. economy, and the fact that we saw slightly slower growth.
are you worried by the slowdown? not terribly worried, and that is because the numbers are all over the place. caroline: he did not trust the data? mr. stein: essentially, yeah, and they do not either. we might lookars back and find growth was 1%, or actually 4%, the perceptions matter, and the perception was a bit of a slowdown, and the risks for next year are present milley on the downside, unfortunately. caroline: and the risk, do you agree that it is about the referendum?he mr. stein: it is difficult to quantify, but in terms of brexit, most people would agree that it would economically involve a loss for the u.k., however those that want to leave feel there are other issues that
are more important and that would compensate and it is unlikely to be a vote purely on the economics of it. of course, the uncertainty and the buildup will have certain but that is also, presumably, why the prime minister want a referendum as quickly as possible is one way or the other there will be a decision. betty: attorneys to be some uncertainty around that. i want to point out your 10 productions for 2016. i know one of them is talking about u.k. growth. you say it will lead, along with the u.s., growth above 2% for the next year. i want to take out some of the more u.s.-centric ones. you have two fed hikes next year, inflation surprises, and also a bad year for u.s. equities. why? u.s.tein: a bad year for equities because u.s. equities are still over-valued and a lot of the support for u.s. equities g. ebbin
if you look at any metrics, specifically p/e ratios, on, wedrivers, and so think there will be a correction, and by contrast, we think there is much more traction in japanese and eurozone equities. betty: but if fed policy is going to be accommodative, like you predict, only two rate rises , wouldn't that bode well for asset prices? mr. stein: it is certainly less bad than it could be, but you are nevertheless seeing moves in the united states toward normalizing interest rate. whether it is two hikes -- i prefer to think of it as 50 basis points. that is the we are implying. the fed might move in smaller steps. i do not know. we are more dovish there. more dovish than the fed itself. that is some support for equities, but nevertheless they
are raising interest rates, and the japanese and the europeans are still easy monetary policy. caroline: is that why we are seeing more traction for you in japanese and eurozone stocks? more stimulus to come? tomorrow we get the japanese monetary policy minutes, and many feel qe is done in japan now. perhaps done in a sense of there is a certain amount of diminishing returns, but it is still continuing at quite a rapid clip. since the japanese economy also ,eems to be somewhat sluggish and it is one of my concerns for next year, the weakness of japanese broad money growth. there is still a possibility that the bank of japan will, in fact, increase its quantitative easing. you saw that at the latest meeting there was some technical tweeting. they said we are going to buy a few other things and we want to invest in companies that are doing better when he comes to hiring and investment, so there
might be for the support of their. meanwhile, in the eurozone, the ecb is not likely to do anything more than what it has now decided to do. it is still a realist -- reasonably powerful easing and those are beneficial for equities. caroline: if you look at the most bearish bets, citigroup sainted 23% increase, jpmorgan, 10% -- where do you see stocks returning? mr. stein: i cannot possibly guess. i am bullish, shifting some of my own investments, which is irrelevant, of course, but we think they're going to do better than the u.s., and rimmer, it is all very well -- remember, it is all very good to have a nice, absolute return, but it is also very nice to have a relatively higher return and that is what we think europe and japan offer. gabriel stein, thank you. back to you.
it is all about equities right now. betty: it is indeed. on that note, let's check out stocks are trading. abigail doolittle has more from the nasdaq. abigail: stocks are sharply higher here at the nasdaq, in part because of cell gene. after thep sharply company settled a patent dispute over its top-selling drug. a j.p. morgan analyst says the biggest overhang has been lifted. the consensus price targets says the stock might move up by 20%. turning to apple, the second-biggest influence on the composite index -- shares are up nicely, with two more banks out with negative comments, joining the bandwagon. one analyst early on that research, from colin, coming up with a negative's appeared -- note next/last summer, wrote a
note suggesting the street might be getting to bearish and that once more is known about the june quarter, it could be reason to get constructive on apple again. betty: thank you, abigail. caroline, it is a battle the charts coming up. i woree: i know, and your favorite color on purpose, hoping i can get another win. betty: are you bribing the judge? caroline: you've got to. you let joe win yesterday, but it is all about getting in the holiday spirit. ♪
betty: you are watching bloomberg markets. the european close -- i am betty liu here in new york with caroline hyde in london. time for the bloomberg business -- the bloomberg business flash with a look at the biggest stories in the news. during from a cynical's is cutting jobs and looking for a ceo. last year -- lastly, marcia cali was accused of taking assets from one of his company's to cover losses. a slowdown is taking a bite out of retail and business is responding by giving consumers a holiday gift -- free shipping. are -- 90%etailers of all retailers are offering free shipping. some companies like target and best buy are providing it on every single purchase. others including gap and walmart
, require a $50 minimum. the u.s. movie industry is on track to get $11 million in ticket sales for the first time ever. office isamerican box forecast to rise 6.3% this year to just over $11 billion, surpassing the current record of $10.9 billion, set in 2013. wars" -- great movie. that is your bloomberg business flash update. let's turn to a story shaken up steelmakers today. caroline? caroline: look at the steelmakers on the move. i'll tell mattel here in europe has been on the rise. others jumping as well. commercefter the u.s. apartment pledged to tax steelion resistant imports from china at 256%.
betty: incredible, caroline, and meanwhile, imports from south korea, italy, they will also be tax, but at a lower rate. what does that mean going forward question that i want to bring in tail and whether, a global trade -- caitlin webber, a goldberg -- bloomberg analyst. these increases, the taxes -- is is basically an all-out ban on foreign imports here? in the case of the chinese companies with a 250% tariff, that is obviously prohibited. those exporters will not be able to access the u.s. market. when you consider the 260% tariff we saw put out yesterday is actually added on top of an over 200% tariff we saw in absolutely extra
and. for those exporters, actually, the chinese, the chinese copies will have a difficult time selling the product in the u.s.. betty: how do you think the chinese are going to react to this? caitlin: so far, the reaction has been muted. they have been pretty quiet. the pattern has been, recently we have seen them file a lot of trade cases to the wto, and there are actually two really high-profile u.s. trade cases in the wings. they might be waiting to see int kind of duties they end those cases as well before starting on a new round of litigation at the wto. in washington,ut the reaction of the lawmakers? caitlin: so far, muted. a lot of the lawmakers are probably home for christmas at this point, but certainly, senators that represents steel-producing states like iowa
and pennsylvania will be watching this very closely. i think it is a very good likelihood that in the new year we will see a lot more political pressure on the commerce department to, you know, retain the high-duties that are affecting the chinese exporters, and they also will be, you know, giving a lot of scrutiny to the much lower duty rates apply to others like korea. this sounds like a massive victory for the you -- the u.s. pit it was a case that orp and others brought because of the concern on prices. are they doing? victory laps caitlin: in the case of -- are they doing victory laps? in the case of a chinese company's, it is a huge victory, and they are effectively banned from the u.s. market. the single-digit rates given to india, south korea, obviously
has a much lower impact on their face, so going forward, i see u.s. steelmakers focusing on --ing to increase the duy duty rates apply to second and third-tier suppliers. caroline: let's talk about cold cash -- how much has this hurt producers? how much has this push down prices, the imports from china being pretty cheap? caitlin: the price of the has been at a decade-low. imports have been surging. industry says that if the number one factor that has been hurting them, hurting or stocks, and how they have been struggling. if we continue to see significant protectionist measures applied, look we saw in this case, that could absolutely have a meaningful impact on those stocks. steel,e: time to go long potentially, if you are in the u.s..
caitlin webber, thank you for joining us today. betty: all right, well, it is time for the global battle of the charts, where we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day, and what they mean for investors. going against caroline hyde today is, again, joe weisenthal. are continuing the theme of looking at u.k. growth. joe: there is a question of when the u.k. will hike rates and people do not see a heightened until late, 2016. today we got another clue. this is the year-over-year change in nominal u.k. gdp, inflation adjusted. it fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis. when you look at the pace of growth, the pace of inflation, this is a measure that combines both of them. it is going in the wrong direction. not exactly the greenlight the bank of england would like to see if it wants to raise rates. betty: we have been speculated
so long here when the fed will raise rates, and now it is in the boe's corner. joe: numbers like this do not suggest it will happen anytime soon, maybe not even 2016. betty: right. caroline, you have been promising a christmas special. caroline: i haven't did. you know the song "12 days of christmas." betty: of course. caroline: this shows you how much it will cost to buy those 12 gifts for your one true love. wealth983, pnc management coming has been making a christmas index to show how expensive it would be to buy those 12 gifts, and i can tell you this year it was up a little it now costs you the grand total of $34,131 to buy a partridge in a pear tree, to buy 10 lowered sleeping, 12 drummers drumming, but i picked out a few
key changes. a partridge in a pear tree cost you $214.99. pretty specific. 3.5% because partridges got more expensive, appellate. 11.5%r one for you -- year on year. gettingly, everyone is into turtledoves. i did not know they were so popular. betty: i did not either. i wonder how they taste. caroline: i am not going to try that one. betty: now i know what to get both of you guys. you both have great charts, but joe is off tomorrow, so we are going to award joe the win again for the battle of the charts. joe: because there is no way i can win tomorrow? betty: that is your present for the holiday. [laughter] caroline, we will say goodbye here, but you will be with me tomorrow as well. you have a lot in europe. caroline: we do indeed. i am calling out mark.
he said where ready, she will vote for you. anyway, we will be looking at the green stocks. the number, it was an update in europe. every single industry groups -- group up. tomorrow, it is all going to be about central banks. i am 20 be looking at the minutes on the back of japan's last meeting. will we learn anything more about the chance to further stimulus? next year -- next year? we will also analyze egyptian rate decision as well. and it is the time of year for a bit of indulgence -- we will look at the top restaurants you should be dining in in london with our chief food critic. do stay tuned for that tomorrow and that is it for the european close. have a great afternoon, that he. -- betty. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am alix steel. here is what we are watching this hour. oil prices heating up today, propped up by an unexpected drop in u.s. stockpiles. opec says prices will rebound to $95 a barrel but it will take 25 years. 2015, a big deal year for m&a, billion-plus 8 $50 transactions. we will talk about why he was such a banner year. norfolk southern has no interest to selling to canadian pacific. rejecting the sweetened offer of $31 billion. as a proxy fight next? let's head to our markets desk, cio has theinocen latest on the rally underway. ramy: