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tv   Bloomberg West  Bloomberg  February 12, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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leaders of the roman catholic and the eastern orthodox church signed a joint declaration on religious unity. it was the first time a pope and a russian patriarchate ever met. a billnt obama signed that will hit north korea with stronger sanctions. this bill came less than a week after the north launched a rocket carrying a satellite into space. presidential candidates in both parties are campaigning in south carolina. jeb bush is drawing larger than expected crowds. his campaign says that events are being moved to larger venues. hillary clinton also campaigning in south carolina before attending a dinner event in minnesota along with bernie sanders. tweetedld trump has sue ted cruzsoon
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for not being a natural born citizen unless he cleans up his campaign. day,l news 24 hours a powered by 24 hundred journalists around the world. i'm mark crumpton. i'm emily chang and this is "bloomberg west." coming up -- a rough ride for the markets. tech stocks feeling the pain. investors say valuations have further to fall. why chi wants dude to bring back in stock. and silicon valley's attitude problem.
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first, to our lead. another week of extreme volatility as companies adjust to a new reality. trigger-happy investors are ready to sell on the slightest instability. even so-called bangs stocks are not safe. amazon and netflix among the biggest losers. activision and pandora plunging off the back of their latest reports. how do we talk about what is going on in the markets? my guest host for the hour to discuss, keys rob y, and paul kedrosky in san diego and oliver new york. oliver, what happened today and this week? as you pointed out, a
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lot more volatility in the markets. seems like that is what we can expect as investors tried to reconsider what they are paying for companies. you're going to see more of that volatility, more of that whipsaw. is -- the these story story is negative. they are not very good. when you guys are talking about , we've got to look at what happens to tech companies and consumer discretionary companies . we see a loss of volatility. we are looking at swings. up, down, the average move is huge and i think it is closely related to that is where growth is in those two sectors. emily: which one are you looking at more closely as the overarching example of what is going on here? guest: there are so many
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thelicting sources -- tableaux story was shocking with linkedin in terms of sheer collapse. but there's also this macro phenomena in, sovereign wealth funds being forced to do an awful lot more selling than they might have hoped. in part you are seeing here, stocks that were very resilient getting sold because there is a demand for cash by the sovereign wealth funds. things evenmaking worse. there are two forces going on. one is nervousness about tech, by the other is mad selling sovereign wealth funds. emily: there is a rousing speech at the all hands meeting. take a listen to what jeff weiner had to say. are the same company we were the day before our earnings announcement. i am the same ceo i was.
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you are the same team you were the day before our earnings announcement. and most importantly, we have the same mission, vision, and sense of purpose in terms of our ability to create economic opportunity. none of that has changed. so, keys, why? why is all of this happening? that's a good question. i modestly more of an expert on private markets, not so much the public market. i think it is a different era. over the summer that these steroid era of startups is over. it turns out historically it's extremely rare to hit 30 home runs. the same thing has been true with technology startups over the last three or four or five years. they have been aided by environmental factors and made it look easy to build a company, raise money, whereas oxygen is
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very expensive right now. macrok there is always a component to this. stocks are valued, the alpha and the beta component. seem to missle corporate finance theory. you can continue as well as you like. if the beta component of your stock changes because of the macro environment and comparable companies are adjusted, you are affected. i think there are isolated circumstances that apply to each company -- twitter is different from linkedin which is different from facebook, etc. -- that there are macro themes that had more of an effect than they expected, which is not atypical. emily: paul, you have an interesting theory. you say it started with private market valuations and that spilled over into public markets. flesh this out for me. pointthis falls on the that keith was making a second ago. there was a ricochet effect. unicorns,rkets, the
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had become more expensive in private markets, so people were looking into public markets and going, look how expensive revit markets are. so private market valuation started coming up to reflect this prices symmetry. and now, the private market prices began being adjusted late these steroidr era was ending. that started to affect tablet market prices, and is public market prices came down, it ricocheted into private markets again. we have ping-pong in back and forth that i think has exacerbated the problem. emily: did the unicorns caused this selloff? i doubt it. there's a complicated relationship between public and private markets. i don't think the private markets really drive the public markets. look at the velocity of transactions. private markets are such a small component. it would be difficult to be the
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driver. there is an interactive dynamic because a lot of people can choose to invest in private markets or public markets. symmetry, they will shift. there is some relationship, but i do not think there is -- that is the primary driver. emily: what is the sense from investors on where the settles? havethe tech sector further to fall, and if so, how much question mark oliver: that is a good question. look back at may when the s&p was at its all-time high. tech, consumer discretionary, these areas were trading at p/e levels that were pretty high. now it is a little more in line with historical averages for stocks overall, the question of whether or not these companies have further to go is largely a question of how much risk investors want to take god. is what we are seeing a dramatic shift in terms of repricing assets?
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or is this just sort of corrections happening rolling through different sectors and now it's going through tech and now it's going to financials, and some of the companies that have held up pretty well question mark the answer to that, i think, will give you an answer to whether tech has further to go. emily: paul, further to go, yes or no, quickly? paul: i think we are much done. we have companies trading close to cash and assets on the tech market, which is a bit silly. there isthink asymmetric downside, but it's more likely to get worse than better. ok.y: we love to disagree on the show. thank you. paul kedrosky, thank you so much, oliver renick, thank you as well. keith, you are sticking with me. a story we are watching -- baidu has received an offer by two
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executives to buy all of its holdings in chi.com. they are offering to buy an 80% stake. spinning out qiyi essentially takes the company private. it could seek an ipo in china where it could potentially get a than it could in the united states where does not have the same name brand recognition. paypal launching its latest initiative and at making it easier to buy what you want. and later in the hour, can google search predict election results? we will take a closer look. ♪
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inly: square gained the most three months after visa disclose details about its stake in the company. visa acquired square in 2011, but terms were not revealed until now. media reports initially suggested visa was buying a new 10% stake in square. visa clarified, saying that it current holdings were about 1% of square's fully diluted common stock. investors are still interpreting this is a good thing for square, which is down 29% year to date. harper reed is a columnist at braintree, a subsidiary of paypal. with me and the studio and he happens to be the former coo at square. what is the significance of this and how should we be interpreting this? >> this is not the first time has wall street journal"
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gotten stories about square wrong. they have basically been wrong three or four years. when you do a different cost structure, they're different rights and cost thresholds. this is a mechanical reinterpretation by visa. is being interpreted by investors as these a may be likely to be buying square. how likely is that? square wants to sell. they are massively undervalued. they will appreciate over time. it takes time for companies to make. paypal went public at a $700 billion valuation. at 25 billionblic dollars. facebook at $50 billion. i would be a buyer at this price. emily: there are people who question square's long-term sustainability. keith: sure. ofly: when you look at all
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square's businesses, which could be huge in the future? keith: it's probably the second largest aggregation of small businesses in the world. and with has a market cap based on small businesses and serving them in several verticals. more than google, more than anybody else. that is a very valuable asset as you continue to provide products and services to that core user base. emily: harper, i want to bring you into this conversation. you have some news to announce. square arepaypal and competing in the same arena. what does this mean for paypal? not been paying attention to paypal for some time. i do not know whether that is
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good or bad. emily: we keep chuckling over here. let's talk about viable pins, button.paypal buy what does this mean in term of -- in terms of paypal's long-term vision for the future? harper: paypal does have a very good name with retailers. it is much bigger than buyable buy buttons. how do we propel a relatively agnostic technology? we are here to help them innovate. the metrics you are watching, and what happened with interest -- pinterest pins in general? harper: it is a new medium. it is like channels retailers
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are using today. there are lots of opportunities in social media, marketplaces. we see this in a lot of businesses in the space. one of the things about paypal commerce is, how do we give all of the channels -- and the future channels --to retailers in an easy to use fashion? it is all very complicated. doing all of this heavy lifting is very copper get it for a retailer who is just very good at selling shoes or apparel or what have you read we are here to do the heavy lifting. harper, why didn't you announce retail partners yesterday? harper: we are trying to keep it a little under wraps in our beta period. a new product. it's relatively agnostic. not everybody is going through our payment methods. there's a lot of details to be decided. what that means in a broadway is it is free, and we need to arede if it is free or we going to charge for this. it is a set of tools.
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the customers using this so far facebookest, uber, messenger, very exciting, and a handful of small retailers that we are not talking about right now in this beta period.'emily it bother youdoes that paypal is not thinking about square? in differentre markets. square powers the real world. that is 20 times larger. eventually paypal will figure out that is the more important part of the world. emily: all right, love having show, keith. you are sticking with us. harper reed, you are sticking with us. we will be talking politics with you because you are the former cto of obama fell campaign. is increasing its focus on
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emerging markets. they increase their investment and a company headed by a russian businessman. another russian tycoon and invested several tens of inlions of dollars in uber the summer of 2015. when we return -- a look at google's crystal ball. how search results predict the way we vote. ♪
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so, could google's search engine become a crystal ball for elections? that is what happened over the new hampshire primary, where the proportion of searches on google tracked the way that voters cast their ballots. harper reed of paypal still with me, former cto of obama's election campaign and we have jim higgins with us, and keith with me in the studio.
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what did you find? a data scientist would say it is not predictive information, but it is a window into the psyche and the questions of the electorate in new hampshire. the top searches were for bernie sanders who won, and donald trump, who won on the republican side. you could see where data -- where people were interested in the name. it was hard to tease out if they were for or against though. emily: harper, obviously campaigns are aiming to be more tech savvy. how can candidates use this information? can it help or hurt them? that's a good question. it is a wonder if campaigns are taking -- paying attention to that data. i think there is a lot of interest. i think that is part of the grassroots organization democrats and republicans are both doing, knocking on doors and asking constituents, who are you going to vote for? that seems to be a pretty
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consistent way to do that. this is another data feed for campaigns to use. , we got similar data from canada's the recent election, the u.k. elections, and the greek referendum last summer. is google as accurate in other situations? we are just seeing live data from last summer, so those are examples where we are seeing pretty interesting results. political scientists and statisticians are studying this going forward. one of the things you see, now that more people are paying attention, google is really trying to make a business out of this ability to survey its customers. you have the search results, the trending search results information, but you also have the pace survey ability, a client can go in and do a quick survey on how a candidate did. that is part of the growing array of business options. keith, what you make of
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this? keith: it makes a lot of sense. i have read that google search results predict, for example, real estate prices in phoenix. so, there is clearly some signal how much effort has to go into normalizing it. i think it is a really interesting signal. that, harper, if you were advising president obama or hillary clinton or bernie sanders right now, how would you be dealing with this information? hope it would be president obama for a third term, but i would think we would be looking at this data, as keith mentioned, as another signal. you can do the same thing with twitter, other search engines. the key is blending them into some synthetic value and making sure it matches your on polling, euro feet on the ground so you can have a better birdseye view of what is actually happening --
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your own polling, your own feet on the ground so you can have a better birdseye view of what is actually happening. emily: algorithms are so good it's fairly easy to predict election results based on the information that is out there, and yet we have this race that turned out in a way nobody expected it to. ,nd donald trump is still in it for example. what is going on in predictive election studies? you know, i how much -- to be votes really matter? : absolutely, and he gets to one of the issues why this google information is so interesting. telephone polling has been under fire, because in large part everyone has gotten rid of their home telephone and have cell phones. doing telephone polling is crumbling and it is hard to get the correct pulse of the nation, or even in these places like iowa and new
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hampshire. there is an expiration of other possibilities. if you look at a company like surveymonkey, out there as well, try to do opinion based gathering, not the traditional way, and it's all about trying to get information and react towards it as we go. we see the campaigns going to south carolina and nevada. interesting. tim higgins, our campaign reporter, harper reed of paypal, formerly with the obama campaign, and keith rabois, who is sticking with us. up, the williams publishing platform has grown to attract big-name contributors like hillary clinton, bono, and elon musk. next. ♪
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emily: apple is said to be biting deeper into the world of original content with plans in the pipe like -- pipeline for
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its first scripted tv series. -- this isxecutive according to a person with knowledge of the matter. it is still not clear how apple plans to distribute the show. for more on that, let's bring in our entertainment reporter from l.a. what do we know about this? we know that apple is going to produce the show, dre is going to star. it wants to not just distribute, it wants to produce. the real question is whether this is just supposed to benefit the music service or whether it is also intended to lift the tv service. i have a hunch, based on what i'm being told, it is more for the music. they made a documentary with taylor swift last year that was supposed to lift up subscribers of the music service. i think this could be something similar. but they have talked about making tv in the past, which is why this is getting so much attention. emily: it's interesting.
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actually, netflix took a bit of a hit today on this news. do you really see a correlation? lucas: not a bit. i don't get that at all. i think if apple decided that it wanted to make a lot of tv somes, then it might pose threat to netflix, but, at the moment, netflix is one of apple plus best partners -- apple's best partners. emily: maybe it is nick spearman for apple, but what -- maybe it for apple, butt what are its longer-term ambitions? apple talked to producers and financiers about wanting to produce premium scripted television. i got a sense from a lot of people that that was a serious interest, but they said that apple wasn't quite sure what they wanted to do. paying to produce radio -- radio programs is one thing. it's not that expensive.
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when you want to spend money on television, that's a serious capital outlay. if there's anyone who can do it, it is apple. if they want to spend $3 billion, $5 billion per year to produce tv. emily: what does it mean for a potential apple life-streaming service -- live-streaming service? lucas: so far, not much. the last thing we heard, that service was suspended. cnn had an interview with the ceo of cbs, who said he had not spoken with them for a while. usly: apple keeping guessing. lucas shot in l.a., thanks. ♪ medium, almost
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five years old. it has since evolved into a community where anyone can contribute as writers on a huge variety of subjects, anyone from marshalling out his plan for africa, to hillary clinton, criticizing donald even's immigration policy, elon musk. joining me now to discuss the company cost growing library of content and high-profile contribute, the head of corporate strategy and an element at medium. thank you so much for joining us. how do you get hillary and bono to write on medium? edward: that's a good question. we have a team that works to cultivate high profile individuals and organizations. we have one of our people in washington who has developed relationships with hillary's campaign, all of the campaigns, and the white house, who is one of our most innovative publishers on medium right now. emily: how does this fit into
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your broader strategy? you are trying to being -- bring publishers onto the platform. edward: we believe medium is a place where anyone who wants to share thoughts and ideas with the world can do so and find engagement and interaction. we think by having this campaign, doing things -- talking about issues they care about and interacting with the medium community, it sets an example for anyone who wants to do that kind of thing, whether it is an unknown individual or student in texas, all the way up to a ceo or the president. publishedsident obama the state of the union address on there before he actually delivered it. yes, he did. emily: let's talk about some of our -- the biggest posts. then, theery now and post goes viral and goes crazy. there is a publication on medium
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called "billfold," that had a really interesting story about the need for women to build up a fund and financial independence, so that they can not have to -- so they can have independence. is not what we are shooting for. what we are really shooting for is people finding the engagement and interaction from a core audience in driving thinking forward. so, we love it, sure, when a post gets a million of -- gets millions of hits, but we also like it when a particular writer finds the 20,000 people who really care about his story, and he can find them and interact with them and drive his understanding of a topic. emily: paul ford, who wrote the famous ""bloomberg businessweek" story. my favorite was about a breast-feeding mom who could not find a place to pump.
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that went viral. edward: it not only went viral, but now they changed their policy around breast-feeding. having influence like that is something we absolutely love. emily: why won't medium become just the next tumblr, the publishing platform of the moment? edward: tumblr is certainly a successful thing. emily: but growth, as far as we know, has plateaued. edward: you are much, much smaller than t -- we are much, rightmaller than tumblr now. we are very cognizant of medium being a broad name. whether you are writing a personal brought -- blog post or a personal publication or a brain communicating to customers, there is a very broad surface area that we think medium can address, and we don't want to be particular form. know --
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if twitter loses the 140 character limit, how is twitter not a threat to medium? edward: there are people writing on the internet all over the place, and, certainly, people will write longer things on twitter, but, if you look at the kinds of things that do well on medium and the way that people invest in crafting stories on medium, it is very different than along tweet -- a long tweet. years from now, what is medium? edward: we think it will be the default longform publishing. there will not be a better place for you to publish. whether you are professional, an advocate, or a person who wants to tell a story that happened, we think that's what it will be. emily: edward, thank you so much. twitter is rewarding
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loyalty. ceo jack dorsey is getting more equity as he seeks to turn the company around and retain talent at the top. adam bain was awarded $1.9 million in restricted stock units. he was on the show yesterday. based on twitter's current share price, that's worth about $30 million. twitter pass cto is getting $1.25 million -- twitter's cto ingetting $1.25 million restricted stock units. all of these additional stock vest over 40 years. in january, twitter lost five of its top executives. newking of twitter, its timeline option just lost a follower. the london tube announced it will be cutting back on its use of twitter for real-time updates, saying the recent changes to the way twitter presents tweet defeats the purpose of sending alerts. it rolled out a new option to display posts based on popularity.
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techg up, mark cuban talks with us. the silicon valley have an attitude problem? the dallas mavericks' owner thinks so. find out why, next. plus, the app promising to make the roads safer by remembering the driving history of everyone else on the road. is it cool or crazy? maybe both. ♪
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film: he is a businessman, producer, author, philanthropist , also the owner of the dallas mavericks. mark cuban sat down with bloomberg's stephanie ruhle in toronto and began by sharing his thoughts on silicon valley. take a listen. culture matters.
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silicon valley has a very specific culture. it's the old hollywood culture. when you hear about the old days of hollywood from 30 years ago, 50 years ago, and you hear stories about people saying you are always looking over the shoulder for your next bigger star, the better script, in silicon valley, everyone is already -- always looking over your shoulder for the next startup, the unicorn. people don't just dig in and go to work. i think that, boston, new york -- there are so many places right now, minneapolis, pittsburgh -- that are for startups, the culture makes it so much better for companies. silicon valley has become significant negative. there's only one good thing about silicon valley. that's were the people who create the access are. the vc firms -- we will find a greater fool to buy your company. silicon valley is better at that than anywhere else in the world.
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stephanie: why not go bigger? why not become a constructive activist? companiesy understand and culture, leadership, entrepreneurship. the criticism of activist investors is, well, they only know how to play the markets, but they don't of how to turn around the company. you could do both. mark: every friday night on abc on "shark tank," with all of the replays, there are 20 million people who watch any given episode. stephanie: those are small companies. mark: not the point. the more important reason i do the show is every symbol friday night, all those repeats reinforce the message that the -- every single friday night, all those repeats reinforce the message that the american dream is live and well. some little boy or girl is watching, and we give them confidence to go out and start that company. we send a message that being an entrepreneur is amazing. it's a great thing to do. if we can do just one of those, two of those, five of those, and
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have that spread, that's far more than i can do as an activist. mark: you -- stephanie: you don't look at ibm and say, i could turn it around? think, watson needs to turn it around. ,ith all the stock buybacks they have some great technology there, but it doesn't really drive their business yet. about it: you talked and analytics and how it played such a big role for you and your team. that's only gotten bigger in the world -- in the last year. how are you using it now? mark: there are two elements. one, how do you acquire the data? we went from fitbits with basic sensors and heart monitors and blood pressure monitors and pulse monitors -- now, everybody is pushing for new ways to measure blood. whatever it may be. new sources of data. the second part of it is the
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upside in analytics, from -- the second part of it is the brain. the upside of analytics, from sports -- you can have all the physical talent in the world. we can put you in better shape than the 6 million dollar man, but if your brain is not where it should be, if your mindset is not right, none of that matters. stephanie: a year later, are you seeing results? product that i invested in. all it does is train, retrain your brain. test forrom let's basketball iq, see how quickly they can identify plays, two different chain scenarios. how quickly are you able to make the right decision? we have been taking our rookie, justin anderson, some of our other rookies, running them through these drills. you can see the improvement. emily: bloomberg's stephanie ruhle with mark cuban, the one and only. that rates every
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car on the road to predict happen.s before they it just launched on the apple app store. our middle east editor just took it for a spin. reporter: when driving, there is only so much your eyes can see. even onboard apps can't tell you what is coming around the corner. captured event. star says it can. >> it islyzed -- analyzing everything around you while you drive. drivers ando warn prevent accidents before they happen. like tracking everyone's trajectories. reporter: it says it has profiled more than 10 million vehicles. it warns other users next time a car comes their way. will the proliferation of the
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app make people better drivers? i have a feeling that i'm driving more carefully. serious privacy concerns here. not everyone will be pleased with the prospect of having their every move on the road monitored, filmed, and send out for analysis by a startup. they say law-abiding drivers needn't be concerned. what's you can't really expect privacy on the public roads. there is no law -- >> you can't really expect five c on the public roads. there is no law that gives you privacy -- expect privacy on the public roads. collecting license plates is something that has been done for many years already. in ae connecting the dots new way and building a network to go beyond it, documenting and preventing accidents, and we think this cause is definitely
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justified. nexar isfor now, focused on rolling out the app and building its network. offeringstep will be evidently good drivers discounts on their premiums. elliott gotkine, bloomberg news. hasbro believes the world still has an appetite for another "invasion of the deceptive con -- the decep ticons." markext installment stars wahlberg and will again be directed by michael bay. the movies have made nearly $4 billion worldwide. who is having the best day ever? he is a rapper, producer, fashion designer, and a very outspoken tweeter. the answer, coming up. let's take a look at this chart.
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while investors have been fretting over the future of yahoo! and twitter, linkedin week,the show this perhaps not in the way it was expecting. ♪
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emily: in this edition of "out of this world," european scientists say there is almost, of hearing chance from the space probe again. it was the first robot to be dropped on a comment -- comet. the last contact with philae was in july, and conditions on the planet are so -- the comet are so cold that the probe cannot function. scientists will spend years analyzing the data. philae is sitting on a comet some 220 kilometers from earth. we have been talking a lot today
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about volatility in the markets, especially the tech sector. yelp plunging to the lowest level since 2012 after announcing their cfo would be leaving. pandora also plunging after its latest report. how does it all translate to the private sector? thought thelier you public market still had further to fall and the private market valuations have a lot further to fall -- a lot further to fall. throughnk we are going -- we have seen a difference in degree. a difference in kind is coming. in 2000 -- not to say we are on the cusp of 2000. but in 2000, march, when the first bubble exploded, between march and june, there was suspended disbelief that this was a temporary inconvenience. in june, when the market crashed again, there was a permanency change. some investors and founders think we are in a temporary adjustment, as opposed to a permanent move -- new normal.
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i.e., things are going to change radically for the next one year to three years. not everybody is adjusted to that. when that mental model shifts, all -- will break loose. emily: how much farther devaluations fa -- how much farther do valuations fall? there's not necessarily a market clearing price for private companies. i think investors are switching from a default -- fear of missing out model to a default model. you have to have the next ordinary team, extraordinary metrics, extraordinary -- to have an extraordinary team, extraordinary metrics. emily: what companies are in danger? >> any company that has a very high venerate -- burn rate will have a real challenge, because the leverage you have under your control are not easy to pull in
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period of time. salaries for engineers, designers, real estate costs -- those things are not easy to change very fast. you are running into a wall at a really high velocity without a lot of bank -- a lot of money in your bank account, that is a very painful adjustment and often craters companies. acar isinsta car -- inst one of your investments. what's going on? >> i think it is doing really well. it cut some recruiters. maybe they will slow down the pace of growing the company. i think maybe technology companies have over hired. they are between 25% and 50% bloated. i think that culture will change. they cut 12 recruiters. how many recruiters they actually have? the value remains. the retention curve, the unique
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relationship instacart has with whole foods is something that is permanent. people will decide where to buy their groceries company differently in the next decade, and instacart is leading that. emily: you are spending on buying houses and flipping them. any concern about this company with so many illiquid assets operating in an economic downturn? >> i think it will do better>> in an economic downturn. we offer any seller in dallas and any seller in phoenix today, soon to be national, to sell your house in about three days. we give you a definitive offer instantly that allows you to have liquidity. that has never existed before. you can't trade in your house like you trade in a car. you have to list it on an mls service and it takes 80 days 120 days. we are giving you liquidity -- 80 days to 120 days. we are giving you liquidity.
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when the market goes down, it is more attractive. we will double our growth, probably have a better margin if the market shifts. emily: always great having you on the show. thank you so much for joining us. the best day ever. kanye west are nearing his newest album, even a videogame -- kanye west premiering his newest album, even a videogame. it's a lot of eyeballs. "the life of pablo," will be officially released soon. have a wonderful weekend. we will she -- see you on tuesday. ♪
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announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." is here.alan gilbert he has served as the music director of the new york philharmonic since 2009. he announced last year that he would step down from the post in the summer of 2017. contemporary music has been a focus of his tenure. he has launched several initiatives, including biennial. a critic wrote, "more than any of his predecessors since leonard bernstein, he has tried to expand the t

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