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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  March 11, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST

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francine: banks lead the rebound and european stocks after currency volatility as markets digest the ecb stimulus package. i.e.a. releases its monthly report. we speak to the norwegian foreign minister. 11%/che bank slashes -- by . talent?s retain so, welcome to "the pulse" live
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from london. i'm francine lacqua. we are getting news from the i.e.a. they're talking about supply and demand and the price of oil. they think price of oil may have bottomed. it was only a couple weeks ago we heard russia and saudi arabia agreeing that they will not put siad they would not add production. opec output has fallen. they say, the headline out of this is that the oil price, they believe, may have bottomed as high cost producers have been shut out of the markets. let's check in on the markets. it's all to do with what draghi said yesterday. banks leading the charge. the european stocks still retain some of their strength, 17%
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.7%. that crude is still a little bit higher for brent. i.e.a. saying that oil prices may have bottomed. let's get straight to bloomberg first word news. yuan has henshore raced its decline for the year after the central bank raised its reference rate by the most in four months. the australian and new zealand banking group putting it down to and dollar decline. jpmorgan is cutting several emerging market global traders. prices andoil china's economic slowdown have hammered the funds of emerging market countries. old mutual is to separate its emerging markets wealth banking and asset management to boost
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growth. it says the move should be completed by 2018. that came as the firm posted full-year net income of 945 million pounds. global news powered by our 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. so much. thank you cuts, all three of the ecb's rates -- for the first time, europe's central bank will buy up corporate bonds. but it was mario draghi's comments that moves markets. take a look at this chart. the first dip was the rate cuts, but the bigger rebound was on the ecb president of you he did not see a need to reduce interest rates further. let's get more with our european economics correspondent. jeff, talk us through the market reaction.
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markets are disappointed. were disappointed. it's fallen through euro-dollar. jeff: yeah, we have to remember that the ecb president yesterday started off his press conference by saying that rates could still go lower. couple of minutes later, he then seemed to reverse that sentiment and said he did not think they would have to. that's what drove the turnaround and markets yesterday. the waters in terms of the markets understanding of what was a substantial package of measures. francine: talk us to the disappointment. i've read a lot of commentary saying the markets were expecting too much. what he has done is not a panic button. it was well thought out and it should put us in a better place. and others disagree. jeff: i think it is going to take time for this to sink in. one of the things we have to bear in mind with this quite
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complex package of measures is there is a shift away from rates policy that might depress the currency and into credit policy, trying to get banks to lend more, trying to drive down borrowing costs. once that message filters through, then i think we will begin to see a different interpretation of what happened. francine: bottom line -- will euro area inflation below for years to come? jeff: there are a lot of reasons to suggest that is going to be the case. we saw the ecb again yesterday push out the horizon to the end of 2018, if not beyond, when they think they will achieve their own definition of price stability. so, without horizon in mind, we have seen them locking in, giving banks the opportunity to lock in low rates until 2021. francine: thanks so much. black on the ground and
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frankfurt. let's bring in our guest. the chief investment officer at ccla investment management. markets were expecting too much. are they focusing on the wrong thing? do you think draghi disappointed or he delivered? i think he had an immensely difficult task. the levers he has to pull to generate growth are limited. so, he has capacity to cut interest rates. i think interest rates are bad news, not good news. we have the broader issue of what else can he do. he is absolutely not permitted to find a fiscal expansion. n, gives go i government's money, and tell them to build and the structure. he can't do that. therein lies is going to because the central bank has done everything it can. his measures now i think will
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make the target two system wars. european will come to regret this action. francine: why? because we are expecting too much? james: because commercial banks will have an even worse time deploying credit. this is an economy that does not want to borrow, rather than economy that does not want to learn. while we have global deflation and the global picture is a'sortant to the euro are agenda, it is clear we have to have structural reform and fiscal expansion. first reaction yesterday was they are standing firm, he is doing every thing he can but the picture now is much worse than expected? a master ofnk he is rhetoric. on balance, the increase in quantitative easing is good news. at the margins, good news, but it is insufficient. it is necessary but not sufficient to drive recovery in euro land. i worry at some point it'll blow up. francine: and what point are we
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expecting central banks to drive recovery? but the markets are mispricing it, expecting too much or do not understand what central banks do. james: it is very important that we focus on central bank policies because the monetary framework is a key part of what drives the global economy. what are governments going to do? i think we have to see global fiscal expansion to get us out of this rutt. we are seeing some signs of that in the global economy. francine: coming from where? spending a lot more money. i worry they will impose more significant capital controls and devalue the renminbi, perhaps in the middle of the year, and then export deflation which will pull the rug from underneath the central-bank efforts we have seen today. francine: how much pressure does draghi's moves put on other central banks around the world? james: i think remarkably
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little. in so far in what he is dealing with is an entrenched problem within the euro land economy. euro land is dysfunctional. it does not have a coherent process to making pan european decisions. he recognize that hard real p olitik. it is going to irritate the japanese. i do not believe the americans are contemplating quantitative easing. francine: do you suggest people buy stocks? or are you concerned about brexit? james: i'm very concerned about brexit because of its applications to the u.k. economy rather than -- the markets. what i think investor should do? they should focus on the reality we will see very low inflation. against that backdrop, we should by assets with sustainable growth. so, companies like easyjet. companies that have
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consistently delivered long-term return with high dividend yields, decent dividend color. that is where we should be focus. francine: think you so much for now. he stays with us. stay with "the pulse." we speak contagion with noise finance minister. -- with norway's finance minister. stimulus's massive ecb adds pressure to central banks in the french is of europe. we asked her what negative rates -- would mean for norway? merkel at the mercy of the electric. germany rose in state elections and what is likely to be a vote on the chancellor's migration policies -- germany votes in state elections. ♪
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francine: we are watching "the pulse." let's get back to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: deutsche bank has cut its -- by 11% after rising legal expenses hurt earnings. and volatility in financial markets means the first quarters of this year may be challenging. meanwhile, deutsche bank is in talks with jpmorgan morgan, goldman sachs and citigroup to sell the last batches of 1
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trillion euros in financial instruments. they say deutsche bank sold 2/3 of a portfolio of uncleared credit default swaps since last year and wants to sell the rest within the next few months. the u.s. justice department and apple have ratcheted up their battle over access to a terrorist iphone. prosecutors say the company's argument against helping the fbi is undercut by its own assistance to china. apple responded saying the government is so desperate that it is resorting to consider the series -- to conspiracy theories. they say apple is standing in the way of evidence that may further its investigation into the san bernardino shooting. francine: european equities rebounding strongly this morning after yesterday's post ecb selloff. let's get more with james b evan. you were going to some of the companies you would be buying. this puts more pressure on japan. japanese equities in this great
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financial experiment, if it is dead in the water, can it bring the world back into recession or is it isolated? james: i do not think abenomics is dead in the water. we need to see the second arrow of the plan. abe dealingee mr. with fiscal expansion, excepting the future generations to pay off debt. and we have to have structural reforms. i think there are excellent buying opportunities in japan right now. interestingly and somewhat diverted of what we were discussing, amongst banks. icing of look at the prcin the banks, there's fantastic value. francine: the i.e.a. 15 minutes ago said oil prices may have bottoms as high cost produces are out of the market. is that true? james: it is quite a tricky statement when one thinks about its bottom.
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do i think we have seen the low for the year. that is correct. a barrel0 bucks represents a low i would say, no. i would say we are in the top half of what is likely to be a chaotic trading range. francine: do you think it goes back to 30 next year? james: for this year, 25 to 45 is roughly what we should expect. millionwe still have 3 barrels a day coming on-screen this year. we have another 1.7 million next year. millionave another barrels coming on screen when libya comes back. demand is growing. but if we are correct in saying the global economy is going to grow less than anticipated. francine: what does that mean for markets? they were correlated to oil. does that mean they do not have to worry about oil anymore? james: absolutely not.
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i worry that the minerals companies haveil been substantial beneficiaries. plays willd metals give back gains over the rest of the year. francine: there is a strange correlation with the s&p and the oil market. we say strange, but i was a reasonable. the dollar strength, despite the financial stress. so, we understand that. all i think that is probably broken for the time being. arecan understand there pockets of secular strength in the united states that will support equity markets. francine: thank you so much for that. we have plenty more on oil. james bevan. andng up, oslo, oil negative rates. we bring you an interview with norway's finance minister as he gets into the world's biggest
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sovereign wealth fund for the first time in history. ♪
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francine: markets are higher as investors react to draghi's stimulus package. let's head to the bloomberg. mark: hi. what a 24 hours or so it has been. this is the stoxx 600 after draghi announced his series is to miss measures. it rose as much as 2.5% since
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falling at the close by 1.7%. we're risen from there and over the two days now, the stoxx 600 is unchanged. draghi prompted the drop by signaling more rate cuts will not be needed. this index is on track for its first weekly drop in four. daylar chart, euro two chart. we saw it euro 1.6%. then it ended the day 1.6% higher. the two day move is a gain of 1.3%. the euro has risen by all 10 of peers.0 the bond market was amazing yesterday. but those -- most incredible one was the spanish 10-year which yesterday fell by 20 basis points. the end of the day, the yield
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rose by two basis points. the peripheral bond market better than the core bond market. the same thing is happening today. yields falling across a spanish barb market. finishing with corporate credit risk. on the news that mario draghi will be buying corporate bonds as part of its measures. this is a measure of investment grade corporate credit risk. pe index whicheuro is a cost of insuring investment-grade companies asinst default, it fell much as 13 percent yesterday and it is continuing today, falling another 5% today. 'se good news is that draghi measures to boost credit availability seem to be having an impact on this credit gauge, which is certainly going to be encouraging for him. by the way, we have fallen since february 11 by 36%.
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this is when this gauge is when this gauge hit its highest level in three years. the ecb in under 24 hours. francine: a lot of volatility in under 24 hours. now, crude contagion. as the crash in the oil prices taken its toll on the norwegian economy, europe's largest exporter has packed inotto tis sovereign wealth funds. billion withdrawal will be used to compensate for the budget gaps. for more, i'm pleased to say that we had joined by siv jensen, norway's finance minister. thank you for joining us. we follow your economy closely. it's a bellwether for what the oil market has been doing. we had the headlines from the i.e.a. they believe the oil price may have bottomed. do you have a similar analysis?
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siv: i think it is too soon to predict on what new level of the for the oil price. if it takes up, that is good news. we still need to restructure our economy, especially since we have known for a long time that oil and gas production would peak. we still need to make sure that we implement structural reforms in our economy. francine: how difficult has it been to predict the price of oil? a lot of economists weren't expecting this. as a finance minister, you have a lot of economists looking at this. what are the factors at play that make it so much more difficult to predict now than they did 10 years ago? that needral factors to be taken into consideration. difficult for the time being but nevertheless, norway will still remain an
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important oil and gas producer for decades, but we need restructure the sector and make sure we invest in other parts of our economy. make sure we have growth in other parts of the economy. so, we have known that this norwegian for the economy but it came sooner. francine: how does it feel to be the first finance minister to withdraw from your front? siv: let me clarify a few things on that. still growing due to investments we are making. this is something we have establishr since we the mechanism. we have known that the income through the fund would be lower in a future perspective, but we have established the fund to be able to invest in growth and we do that trough investing -- through investing and competitive tax system,
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infrastructure, a good schooling system. we will continue to do that. francine: this is a piggyback for a rainy day. some of us may be have it at home. was it a difficult decision to tap into it, because of the image it would betray to the world? siv: i have to be clear on what is happen. the fund is still growing. we are not tapping the fund as such. we are still spending the revenue. s, action fromlan the no region authorities.. norwegian authorities. francine: we talked to about where you see the fund going from here. siv jensen, the finance minister of norway, joins us.
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before we take a short break, the this is what the markets are doing yesterday. we saw a lot of euro-dollar volatility. today, the banks leading gains. we will talk more about oil with norway's finance minister. ♪
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francine: welcome to "the pulse" live here in london. let's get straight to the first word news. yuan hase onshore erased it declined to the year after china central bank raised its daily reference right by the most in four months. the magnitude of the fixing increase, the australian and new zealand banking group putting it down largely to a euro realall. jpmorgan is cutting several
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emerging market trading units. prices andoil china's economic slowdown have hammered the bonds in emerging market countries over the past year. old mutual is to separate its emerging markets wealth, banking and asset management units to boost growth. it says the move should be completed by the end of 2018. as the firm posted full year net million pounds. global news powered by a 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. francine: thank you. we talked about the oil price and mario draghi. we are going to talk about negative rights. still with us is siv jensen, norway finance minister. intoaid, yes, we tapped
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our sovereign wealth fund. your tapping into revenue so the fund is still growing. do you have any reason to believe the fund would stop growing if stock markets tumbled further, if negative rates are cut more. or do you think things are stabilizing? ms. jensen: first of all, the fund is very well-managed. you have to remember this is a long-term investment. we are invested in thousands of companies all over the world. term a very long perspective, which means we are very much aware of, that we can significant fluctuations from one year to the next but, since we have this long-term perspective, it means that overtime the management creates good value for norway. francine: do they need to buy more assets such as infrastructure a private equities? returns are not only tough for your funds, returns are tough elsewhere. and everyone is looking at these
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types of assets. should your fund do that? ms. jensen: the investment portfolio has been laid down for quite some time. it's addressed through parliament every year. i do that through a white paper once a year, where we can discuss different aspects of how the fund will be managed for the years ahead. we move very slowly. this is the fund that needs to be trusted, needs to be opened, well-managed. that is one we build stone by stone by stone, very slowly. and that has served us well. francine: overall, you're not expecting the kind of turmoil we have seen the beginning of january in global stocks? is, there: the point will always be turmoils in stock markets, but with a long-term perspective, you can actually
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through fluctuations. over time, i think we have seen good results for the fund. francine: but we heard from mario draghi yesterday was a comprehensive package to try instantly -- to stimulate the euro zone, does that put extra pressure on countries such as negative go into territory, or does it give you relief that the ecb is taking matters into their own hands? ms. jensen: the norwegian central bank is having the responsibility for monetary policy in norway. we still have monetary policy as a tool. the interest rate in norway is 0.75%. bank finds it necessary, a can still use monetary policy as a tool. now we have a lot of cushions working. the currency is another.
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and fiscal policy. working together, and is giving a positive effect on the norwegian economy. we foresee a pickup for the economy into 2017. francine: why is fiscal policies flow to come around the world, especially in eurozone countries? problem fora common all european countries is the need to see structural reforms. something most countries talk about, but i think this is something we need to work on. my government has unfermented m,veral reforms for this ter which are necessary to make the economy work better. becoming more efficient overtime. so, we are working on several reforms and i think that is something most countries should address. francine: i know you do not want to talk about monetary policy because your central bank's independent, but have you looked into the effects on banks and yourer banks can cope if
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rates were to go to negative territory? ms. jensen: my concern has been with financial stability. we had a banking crisis in norway in the 1980's and 1990's. as an effect from that, we have been vomited several reforms to the banking sector. it's now rock solid. we have implemented several regulations coming from the e.u., which i think is a good thing to do because you need solid banks especially in difficult economic times. francine: you also mentioned the current thing. will he continue being in your favor? ms. jensen: norwegian currency is slowing. it has a tennessee to parallel the oil p-- it has a tendency to parallel oil price. francine: how do you view
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brexit? even if you are a little bit that hasit's something the potential if things go wrong if there is a panic and people get concerned of impacting your economy. how do you prepare for the? ms. jensen: first of all, this is a referendum in the u.k. i think it's interesting to follow to see the debate on both sides, but i think we will follow it until a referendum -- what will be the outcome of it? francine: do you have a plan b? does the eurozone need a plan b? are you too far removed. ms. jensen: this is a question that needs to be solved within the u.k. francine: a lot of people in the u.k. have come under fire, even the cleaned. -- even the queen.
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can you give me a sense of the correlations, your biggest whichhe is the oil price, is out of your control but we also saw a strange move at the beginning of the year where oil correlated amongst every single market. how did you view that? was that market panic? markets were trying to latch onto something? many factors that is affecting the economy. but we do in the big picture is that the european economy is picking up. there are weak results in that oil of the -- again, lower prices should actually have a positive effect on global economy. we don't see that for the time being which is a bit strange. but i think that confidence is important in oil markets, which is important that governments printn active part and your bidding to -- in
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contributing to infusing confidence in markets. francine: talk to me about norway. we started the interview with your saying you need to push reforms through. are there one or two reforms you want to nail down in the next 12 months? tom: ms. jensen ms. jensen: we launched a tax reform to parliament before christmas. hopefully it will be decided in parliament. francine: is there anything else in giving confidence? bout the psychology of the markets. if you look at economy and growth, we also talk on the psychology of consumers. do you feel like you have any power over that? ms. jensen: consumer confidence is very important but that has to do again with managing the economy. managingment has -- is the economy safe and sound, even though we have more turmoil now.
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i think people are very much aware of that we are going through a structural shift. the oil and gas related industry will be smaller. still important for our economy but smaller. it means we need to make sure that we create or attract investments to other parts of the economy so we can create more businesses and more jobs. that is the main job for our government. francine: norway would have no interest in joining the e.u. ms. jensen: we have had two referendums and we have no debate on that issue for the time being. francine: coming up, jon cryan spreads across as bonuses are cut it europe's biggest investment bank. we will talk deutsche bank and we will go live to frankfurt. ♪
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let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: bp won't have to face lawsuits by energy and oil service companies that had blamed the energy group for losses suffered during the ban offshore drilling imposed after the 2010 gulf of mexico oil spill. one of the largest the remaining categories of claims bp faced. the company has paid out $55 billion. deutsche bank is in talks for jpmorgan, goldman sachs, and
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citigroup to sell the last batches of one trillion euros in complex financial instruments. deutsche bank has sold 2/3 of the portfolio of credit default swaps since last year. justice department have apple have ratcheted up their battle over access to a terrorist iphone. prosecutors say the company's argument against helping the fbi is undercut by its own assistance to china. apple responded saying the government is so desperate that it is resorting to conspiracy theories. authorities told a judge yesterday that apple is standing in the way of evidence that may further its investigation into the san bernardino shooting. francine: thank you so much. now, deutsche bank has cut its cryanpool by 11% as john pushes employees to help shoulder the bank's legal costs. how does this fit with his
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overall strategy? said well, it's, cryan in no uncertain terms, that shareholders alone cannot be shouldering the cost of expenses. as the bank tries to build capital, staff has to do their part. beyond that, it also may be facilitating his plan to hold on to the staff he sees as the most loyal. press has been talking about how the mercenaries are leaving deutsche bank. i would not go that far. attack ons an compensation, some staff may leave the bank. nick, we have also had news about the former co-ceo, andrew james. nick: yes, indeed. it looks like he is leaving on what appeared initially to be terms.
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withll remain in office deutsche bank until he takes on another role in another company. that could be in the next couple months. we heard last monthly read be saning sofi, a francisco-based online lender and would be taking a seat on the board there. untili then, it looks like he is enjoying some of the parks which were standard for board members. francine: thank you so much. in frankfurt, going through some of the deutsche bank analyst. we are -- deutsche bank actions. u.k.'s trade deficit with the european union has been widening to a record. this is more important than usual because we are in the midst of campaigning for brexit or not. so, any kind of hint about our relationship with the e.u. will play into voters minds when they
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vote on june 23. angela merkel faces her first major electoral test since the refugee crisis. three german states go to the polls this weekend. let's be to bloomberg's german government editor. take us through exactly what's at stake here. >> here's the situation. angela merkel has been in power for a decade now. this is the most pressure she has probably ever been under. she's facing this insurgent alternative for germany party which is gunning for her on immigration or refugees. her plans and efforts to, for calling an international solution for the refugee crisis are moving but moving slowly. on sunday, more than 20% of the german electorate is eligible to go to the polls and cast their first major verdict on how she
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is doing. francine: one of the threats to angela merkel if her party actually does badly? tony: well, she could actually, the polls in one of the states are showing she could, her party, the christian democrats, could pull out a patriot. overall, she's been losing support in all three states. and the one thing that is certain is to happen is the resistance and her a party is going to get much stronger possibly. these people have been holding their fire. come sunday night, we will see the results are really bad, then we are going to get a new wave of opposition to or policy. is she going to get up and leave and quit? that is a question that is asked. that's quite unlikely, because she's, no immediate rival. she's very convinced of her
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position and she is not the kind of person who will say, i'm going to throw in the towel. francine: how much of an impact has the refugee crisis had on average germans? tony: well, there's certainly been places that have been youcted but it's not like, should not imagine that there are refugees running around all over germany homeless and causing trouble. it has been fairly organized. some communities andocal governments have been burdened. however, the refugees have been distributed across the country and channeled to the different parts of the country. and the german budget also has been deployed to help them. so, in that sense, merkel has the support of the finance minister, which is significant
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in this case. you also see what with alternative for germany, it is more a question of identity of german, this notion of germany identity being under threat. and also, of course, one million refugees and a year even for germany is quite a large number. francine: that is certainly true. up next, are the markets green lighting draghi? european stocks are up this morning and we break down the news next. ♪
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francine: let's head straight to the bloomberg with mark barton. we've seen some huge moves not only on euro-dollar but on other asset classes. mark: investors went to bed on one side and got out on the other. they were longer market. look what is happening today. these are the principal european indices today. we are seeing a rally. all 19 industry groups rising today. it rose initially, the stock 600 by 2.5% after the draghi announcement. it ended lower after he signaled there were be no further cuts in interest rates. we still are on for the first
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with the drop in four, after three weekly gains. the euro is another phenomena in the last 24 hours. it fell 1.6%. in the close1.6% yesterday. the feeling is that draghi is shifting the focus from rates and weakening the euro to credit with this creation of longer long-term loans and buying corporate bonds. over the two-day, the euro up by 1%. this is the bond markets in germany. most of the yield curve is falling to. -- falling today. it finish the day six points higher. this is the draghi. inflation gauge. it was up yesterday by about 5%. unchanged today. it's come off its lows from a
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couple of weeks ago. francine: what a great chart. this is what we do on "the pulse on stay with us for a that matter this money. "surveillance." is up next. tom keene will join us from new york. we begin with a conversation with katherine manan. n. she has been very outspoken about brexit. i'm not sure how she views it and whether she thinks this will one growthurt euro z prospects in general. but we have had a lot of investor and economists say that. this is your market check. i want to talk about the other story. we will get the head of economics and finance joining us. deutsche bank saying they will cut their bonus pool by 11% as jon cryan is trying to spread the legal costs.
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european banks are rising significant way today. .he stock 600 gaining this is after the selloff we saw yesterday. mark barton was going to the nasa nation job the markets -- the machinations of the markets 's comprehensive stimulus package that is not filtering through the european stocks on the rise today. crude oil, i want to show you the price of brent. we had a great interview with a gian finance minister. she cannot call it bottom but she's hoping the oil price will not go down any further. oil prices according to the i.e.a. may have passed their lowest point as shanking supplies -- -- as shrinking supplies erode global surplus. e.a. this morning saying
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that oil prices may have bottom because they cut the high cost producers out. we are back in a couple of minutes. we leave you with a very nice picture of london on this not rainy friday morning. ♪
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francine: the side effects. thanks believe the rebound in european stocks after currency volatility, as markets adjusted the stimulus package. oil has a weekly game. we assess the fallout of the crude crash. deutsche bank slashes by 11% -- can banks retake talent? this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom, we have to focus on the markets


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