tv On the Move Bloomberg March 14, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EDT
anna: welcome back, this is "countdown." let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> thank you. german chancellor angela merkel has suffered defeat at the ballot box as voters use three state elections to reject or open border refugee policy. her cdu failed to recapture three regions. n saxony but will struggle for a viable coalition after the anti-immigration party picked up a quarter of the vote. in the u.s., donald trump has changed a planned monday night rally in florida to ohio, where
polls show that governor john kasich may be pulling ahead. trump made a few other tweaks to his schedule this weekend that seemed designed to tampa down emotions after violent protests a rocket at chicago on friday night, forcing the cancellation of a large rally and resulting in several arrests. millions of people have rallied across brazil, protesting against corruption and calling for the impeachment of the president. they marched along copacabana, through the center of sao paulo. brazil is suffering its worst recession in decades and dozens of lawmakers and business executives aren't embroiled in a corruption investigation. at least 34 people have been killed in an explosion in on ankara. a suspected suicide bomber blew up a car close to the prime minister's office.
this comes less than a month after another suicide bomber killed dozens of soldiers in a convoy passing through the city. qaeda saylinked to al they led an attack on sunday that left at least 22 people dead in the ivory coast. it is the third assault on a west african hotel since november. the ivory coast had been on high alert since november, when militants linked to al qaeda attacked a hotel in mali, leaving 20 dead. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories online. anna: that's what's happening around the world. as for the markets, let's get to nejra cehic.with analysis for us . asia has strengthened. nejra: absolutely. asian stocks are extending the
global rally, the msci hitting a two month high. we have a lot of news out of china over the weekend -- the shanghai composite had its biggest gain in more than a week after the regulators signaled it would maintain support for equities. what i want to highlight is the aussie dollar. here is where we are seeing the sign of risk appetite, rising to an eight-month high. what it shows is the aussie dollar really defying concerns about china, which is australia's biggest export market. but i want to show is how the aussie rally has been outpacing gains and commodities. the white line is the bloomberg commodity index, which tracks returns and commodities. anna: you have been tracking the chinese currency as well. take us through that. nejra: absolutely. what we saw is the offshore yuan decline after china's central bank governor offset excess of
monetary policy not needed to hit the growth target. i want to show the divergence between the yuan strengths itsnst the dollar versus weakness against the bloomberg version of a basket of currencies, which measures the yuan versus 13 exchange rates. this white line has dropped to its weakest since december, 2014. that is what i want to highlight -- the stealth decline. finally, i want to bring up u.s. treasuries. it's a big week for central banks. easing in europe and japan has pushed yields below zero in trillions of dollars of bonds. that has boosted demand for treasuries, and may mitigate any impact the fed rate hike -- and forecasters are now expecting 2.35% to end the year at after a projection of 2.82% in january. drop inally showing the
u.s. 10 year yield forecasts. with a look atic some of the things driving markets. let's bring in manus cranny. good to see you. move." anchoring "on the what are the thoughts going into the program? that story board has been created, and if you look around the world, it goes back in with what you said at the start of the show, about that risk revival. is this the risk revival n expansion bya the european central bank, by additional stimulus coming from the bank of japan? what will they do in terms of signaling -- i thought it was a great piece on the terminal over the weekend, which said it is
not about what you do, it is very much about how you do it apropos mario draghi, who went more negative and cut his interest rates. his message was that we have reached down the deal, the low point in rates. picking up on everything you u.s. we have japan, the central bank meets on wednesday, and the euro is hoping the u.s. will do more for it. be interesting to see how the central banks that will be meeting -- and there are so many -- manus: kazakhstan and chile -- [laughter] anna: whether they will add to this. we got this risk appetite continuing, and that is being picked up, and we got positive remarks from the chinese, but oil is retreating, and that hasn't been the case in recent sessions. usually we see the stoxx come
down. gold is going higher. we are seeing commodities rally this year. gold has also been rallying, which is on. -- which is odd. manus: you talk about oil -- when i left of the terminal it was still over $40. what you have is that progressive story that we have talked about quite a lot, which is outside of opec, a reduction in terms of supply, and is that a real reduction in terms of supply? nearly 50%,ied by so that will have a big impact. anna: we will have some analysis of that later in the program. thank you very much. the u.k. chancellor george osborne has set the stage for a number of budget cuts in the face of what he calls great economic uncertainty.
speaking on sunday, he said that the government must be proactive and prepare the u.k. economy for future shocks. budget isage in this that the world is a more on certain plays than any time since the financial crisis, and we need to act now so we don't pay later. that is why i need to find additional savings by the end of the decade, because we have it within our means to get back here and that is how we make britain fit for the future. anna: also speaking, the shadow chancellor john mcdonald. he said there needs to be more money invested by the government instead of pursuing austerity. we don't have that sound, unfortunately, but we will bring it to you later. let's bring in the founder of capital economics, who joins us on set to talk about the looming budget. then we will talk about brexit.
first, let's deal with the budget. todayid in an article that you want more efficient on taxation. not just tackling the deficit -- you want to see big changes around taxation. but you looking for? concernedrticularly with personal taxes. they have done a good job with corporation tax, because even when they didn't have that much money to fund tax cuts, they had a plan. companies were able to know what the rate would be doing in the years time, and that is useful. with personal taxes and the coalition government, he did something similar with regards to the tax-free allowance, the ambition that should rise. with personal taxes, we don't know. will he cut the top rate? 40p being the national tax rate for millions? anna: do you think it is likely
we will get something cutting that top rate, really addressing the number of people who creep up into it? know.on't i think things have changed when ita few weeks ago was said that he would make a major reform to pensions taxation, that was supposed to go to clobber an middle classes. he has no road back. i thought that was a political cover, and now that he has the cover he may well balk at eight. the weather he increases it, i think he will do something. anna: a lot of people characterize the statements we got in november as backing off from full austerity. that seems to be a characterization high in the media. shows got a chart that
where the burden of austerity will fall, and as we talked about many times, it is this year and next year when we will see some of the austerity hitting home for a positive number on that chart. do you think -- what message will be get on that overall need to tighten things up? that is clearly the message he was giving. >> quite apart from whatever he might do this wednesday, already the fiscal position is due to tighten. he will blame the outside world -- chancellor's always do. things are terrible out there therefore we have to squeeze in here. anna: [laughter] we sit here talking about the machinations of the global economy all the time, and there is weakness in china, and even if you are somebody who likes the figures out of china or believes wholeheartedly in them, 6.5% over the next five years -- you have got a point about the weakness.
>> there is no doubt that the world environment is a bit soft. but it's not as bad as people thought it was. china looks to have stabilized. but the world economy is reasonably weak. the big question is what do you do? in the old days, they may have said, right, this is the time for tax cuts and higher spending. this or osborne did the exact opposite. he says everything is weak, so this is the time to tighten your belt. anna: should be the time for big investment projects? he was talking to the shadow chancellor -- as many chancellors before him, he said you shouldn't be cutting that kind of spending. you should be still investing. >> i think there are two questions that have to be distinguished. the first this should we be spending more on investment and borrowing to fund it? personally, i think probably not.
the idea that this is a free lunch i don't buy. anna: even with rates so low? >> yes, because the tech numbers are so high. that within the total of expending, i think yes, frankly he hasn't cut current spending i would cut -- cut current spending enough. anna: thank you so much. he stays with us. let's move on -- 6:43. suicide car bombing in turkey killed four people and wounded many more. it is the first time ankara has been hit in many months. we are joined now from istanbul. bring us up-to-date with the latest situation on the ground. the terror strikes turkey once again. at least 34 people are dead and more than 125 wounded. the explosion took place in the heart of ankara at 7:00 p.m. local time on sunday.
in the square 200 meters away from the prime minister's office. no one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but according to the state's home government tv channel, the government blames the kurdish tkkk.ry group the anna: tell us what the government is doing to take on the tkk. >> that's right. this is the first time ankara has experienced a terror attack in the last five months. less than a month ago, 30 people were killed during a car bombing. that attack was claimed by the kurdish group tak, which has affiliations with the pkk. last year in october, the islamic state claimed responsibility for twin bombings that took place in ankara,
killing 100 people. it is worth noting that a few days ago, the u.s. consulate in ned of terrorist attacks and cited specific information. anna: thank you. joining us from istanbul. up next, a nation divided. the split over merkel's decision lays there as her party takes a battering in state elections. we will have analysis, next. ♪
it comes as china looks to reform state owned enterprises and unlock value from the portfolio. they have agreed to sell more than one million shares as part of the transaction. the stock gained in hong kong trade overnight. on insurers group has agreed to buy a strategic hotel and result in blackstone for $6.5 billion. transactionecord for chinese buyers of american real estate, giving the insurer a range of 15 u.s. luxury resource from san diego to manhattan. they completed the acquisition just three months ago. a property developer is getting into the railway business with an agreement to buy a stake in the metro group. it is part of a restructuring plan which would see them buying more than $9 million in assets. the company plans to fund the
acquisition mainly by selling new shares to shenzhen metro. the stock surged on the news by the most in over a year. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you. refugee plan's laid there as the democratic union party failed to capture two western states and regional elections. we are joined by hans nichols with analysis. good morning. what did the elections tell us about her positions? hans: good morning. they are telling us that voters are searching for an alternative, disappointed with angela merkel and the direction she is taking the country. it is hard to underscore how disastrous this is, the decline that the cdu has had in key states. what you see there on the map is what they held onto in the east.
the big thing -- look at that blue state. 4% unemployment rate. by all accounts, things should be going well. but that is where it failed to win back the state. they also didn't win back any other western states. when you look at what the alternative has done -- this is the right wing party that initially saddled itself in opposition to the euro and now they have gone ahead and moved to the right, especially on the refugee question. saxony goteland, 24%. that is a remarkable story. when you look at the cdu, merkel's party, and the amount of votes it has lost,. it really tells the story they lost 12% in wartburg, which is a bad result. this is a clear sign to angela merkel that voters are not happy. but there has not been any indication, any signaling, that
she is going to change your tactic. with hering to stick refugee policy regardless of how unpopular it is. there are not any obvious challenges to her and her own party. this gives you a sense that in 18 months, close of the two leading political parties could take clobbering's in the national election. you could see them come in to parliament in germany, a remarkable moment with a remarkable 18 months ahead. here in germany they will continue to debate refugee policy. anna: thank you very much. they have a conference later. the u.k. chancellor george osborne believes it is absolutely right for the u.k. to confront the issue of european union membership had on. he said it sunday, is the greatest judgment the country has had to make in a generation. >> this is not some political
game. this is the biggest decision facing this country, and the people facing it will not be you and me. the hills farmer in wales, the central worker in walmouth. they depend on an open it engaged european union. anna: chancellor osborne speaking there. the founder of capital economics is still with us. a long-term advocate or of brexit, would you go that far? >> me? no, certainly not. a rubber voting in the 1975 referendum to stay in. it is really only in the last few years i have become amenable. anna: mark carney was really put on the spot, and he described
the brexit vote as the largest a mystic threat to the economy. does it feel like you are playing with fire? >> frankly, no. i think he has grossly exaggerated the risks. there are some risks, but there are much bigger risks out there. my firm thinks about the future in the forecast, i don't start off with -- what do we assume about the brexit? there are far bigger things out there. the oil price, interest-rate policy around the world, inflation. i think brexit is a way down the list. anna: some economists talk about what could happen in the short-term as a result of their vote to leave. they say we could have a sterling prices, a debt crisis, a recession. many economists in the survey went much higher on brexit. do you not see the things happening, or are you prepared to take that short-term risk for
long-term gain? >> i wouldn't put any weight on the bloomberg survey, forgive me. anna: [laughter] >> i draw a distinction between the recession and the pound, partly on the brexit fears. i think that is very good news, it's fantastic. i would like it to fall further. general debt crisis? i don't think so. the u.k. will not change as currency -- it will still be good credit. anna: a crisis and a recession? >> no, no. when we vote to come out of the eu, things will be exactly the same. and it will be the same for quite a long time. there is a two-year period in which we have to negotiate. anna: what kind of effect will this have? what sort of proportion of city jobs will go to paris,, dublin other places? are carter talks about
contingency plans around that. buthere will be some jobs, this idea that all big banks will transfer wholesale to frankfurt is quite ludicrous. not long ago, these big firms were complaining about the eu bonus cap. of course, if we had to impose it, we could resent that. the people that -- the idea that people will vote in droves -- anna: you can't use this as a jumping off point. >> absolutely. some big banks will have to set up some sort of operation on the continent. the question is how much of their business do they move? i think they will want to move the bare minimum. anna: thank you for joining us, great to see you. six: 66. asian stocks soar, and a dozen central banks submit rate decisions.
it is just on 7:00 in the morning here in london. let us get straight to what the futures are telling us about where the european market are going to start this trading -- the trading day. we were given a positive handover from the u.s. and the asian sessions. euro stocks are up by 4/10 of 1%. expected to open up by 2/10 of 1% to the upside. general continuation of risk appetite it seems in the european session. looking at the u.s. futures suggest we may see something more mixed when we get to the wall street journal but that is many hours away. let us talk about our risk radar. chinese equity market doing well, leading a rally across the asian equity market. the reassuring words from the stocks regulator about how they would be able to step in if
there was any panic in the market underpinning the move high this morning. for anyone who likes this risk rally and the correlation between stocks and oil, you might be interested in what you see in the middle of your screen. down a tenths of 1% for the crude oil price. is this rally in stocks sustainable? we will see as we go through the trading day. fairly flat on the u.s. 10 year rate. we have been down at 1.65% in the middle of february. a lot being worked into that number at the moment. one point 97% is the yield on the u.s. 10 year right now. that is the risk -- that is a look at the risk radar. kumutha joins us. kumutha: german chancellor angela merkel has suffered defeat at the ballot box and voters used three state elections to reject her open
border refugee policy. the cdu fail to recapture the region and came second in the rhineland. saxony butrty won will struggle to form a viable coalition as the anti-immigration pick up a quarter of the vote. in the u.s., republican front runner donald trump has changed his plan for a monday night rally in florida to ohio where polls show governor john kasich may be pulling ahead. he has made a few other tweaks to his schedule this weekend that seemed designed to tamp after violentn protests directed in chicago on friday night. millions of people have rallied across as ill protesting corruption and calling for the impeachment of the president. brazil is suffering its worst recession in decades and dozens of lawmakers and business executives are embroiled in a corruption investigation. least 34 people have been
killed in an explosion in the turkish capital of ingres. suicideay a suspected bomber blew up a car close to the prime minister's office also wounding about 125 other people. the blast comes less than a month after another suicide bomber killed dozens of soldiers in a convoy passing through the city. the turkish lira is trading lower this morning. the first decline in five sessions. linked to al qaeda said they led an attack on sunday that left at least 22 people dead in the ivory coast. the third assault on a west african hotel since november. it has been on high alert since november since villages linked to al qaeda attacked the radisson hotel in mali leaving 20 people dead. than 100ws in more news bureaus around the world. more stories are on bloomberg. anna: let us check in on the asian market.
juliet sally is in hong kong for us. the machine orders out of japan is one factor that the market is trading on. generally a positive session for you guys over there. juliette: we are seeing the regional benchmark index up by almost 1% closing higher for the third consecutive session it now means it has had a gain of over 2% in the last three sessions. on track for its highest close since did write that as we see buying at risk on appetite across the region. the shanghai composite has closed by one and three quarters of 1%. strong rallies in shenzhen today. at one point, that index was up by over 4%. out from the securities regulators saying they would not be withdrawing support from equities which really gave investor sentiment a boost as did some property development movement coming through which lifted the hang seng index here as well in hong kong up by 1% in late trade. the cost be had a fairly flat
session but the korean won strengthening for a third session and in japan the japan machine order boosting stocks. the nikkei 225 closing higher by almost 2% today. we did see life insurers and banks really leading the gains their that also good movement coming in from the retailers. australia, the asx 200 continuing it's good run as well. very close to closing above the 5200 point level. we did see a switch out of gold players like northern star and evolution coming under pressure. the sentiment of risk on has seen some good movement in those emerging-market currencies. continuingorean won to rise today. heading for its strongest close of the gear. the aussie dollar as well is very much higher. a by 3.5% year today. having a good day today. highs that we have not seen since last july at 75.39.
the fed and the bank of japan meetings are tomorrow. inhave seen risk on back favor in this part of the region today. thank you, juliet. let us stick with the news out of china as juliet was referencing. the people's bank of china governor has said major stimulus is not needed to support growth. this comes as industrial out put and retail sales grew more slowly than expected in january and february. stephen is in beijing. at the start, the meeting in china with the party leadership we heard how they were going to allow for more fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus and that set the tone for more intervention and work backstopping of the growth numbers in china. it's what is going on at the moment. -- explain what is going on at the moment. >> the people's congress wraps up the middle of this week. the fiscal deficit and they have
announced they will do more short-term spending. the central bank governor overlooking monetary policy -- they have had quite an accommodative policy even though they call it prudent with a slight easing bias. they have had six interest-rate cuts in the last 15 months. necessarily feed into the economy. he is kind of saying -- we do not need a lot more easing. it needs some time to work into the system. there is no doubt we are in a weaker than anticipated start to the year economically for the chinese economy. nevermind the seasonal distortions that we do get at this time of the year. the economy is definitely's uttering. no pboc governor has said major stimulus is going to be needed right now. that does not mean it will not right now.not as long as there is no big economic or financial turmoil, the pboc will keep its prudent
monetary policy in place with a slight easing back -- i is. the latest data points to the other side. need more easing of the policy because industrial production rose below estimates at 5.4%. in -- four months straight years in deflation. retail sales are a key barometer. it climbed 10.2%. that also missed economists forecast. might not feel the need to give more monetary stimulus right now. they do seem steadfast in their support of the currency. plenty of messaging of how they want stability around the currency. hedge funds have been trying to test the pboc. how is that going for them? that against the pboc at your own peril. i can see the argument.
when they devalued in august, the governor was nowhere to be seen. his deputy was on the press conference within 48 hours. the governor had not been seen through those last -- through the last quarter of the year. there was a lot of speculation. they devalued and then they supported to the tune of $514 billion worth of their reserve depending on the currency. they have kept it steady at least against the dollar so far this year. aftervirtually unchanged depreciating 4.5 percent. i get the sense that they like where it is against the dollar right now and we will have to he increasedard whether pressure on the easing will further depreciate the currency. mention the dollar. it is all about the basket, they keep saying. thanks so much. leave us alone does not qualify as a policy stance but that is what the iranian oil minister is
saying to fellow producers as they seek to reach an agreement on freezing output levels. for nowfe to say that iran wants no part of this proposed freeze that many are talking about? >> a bit of an understatement. he has previously described this putative agreement as ridiculous. he is taking a leave out of greta garbo's book that i rant just wants to be left alone. it is currently at 3 million barrels a day. work out the extra million barrels a day that iran wants to be able to produce before it says it will be in a position to talk and help out with other producers to try to get supply and demand back in equilibrium. for now, that does not seem like iran is going to be getting on board anytime soon. i suppose that leaves open to
important questions. how quickly will iran be able to ramp up production? there are skeptics out there that say they do -- they won't be able to meet their target this year. -- is thisuestion is deal to freeze output dead in the water if iran does not come on board or they make some sort of exception for iran? anna: partly as a result of these goings-on come up rent crude is struggling on its comeback hovering around its $40 a barrel level. >> we are still up for the year at about 2%-3% but when you have these two opposing worse is, additional output from iran coming on the market at the same time that you have the active count in the united states declining for the 12 week in a row. investors are trying to work out which will have a greater impact on the amount of oil out there and then take a view on where
prices ought to be going. $70 a barrel would be an appropriate price. we may get more from him later today. he is meeting with his russian counterpart in iran. anna: here is a look at what is ahead for this very busy week for financial markets. opec, publishes his monthly oil market report which comes as i ran dow's to continue to boost production by a million barrels a day. tomorrow, we get a rate decision inm the bank of japan and the u.s., several states had to the polls for primary votes. on wednesday, we get a rate decision and policy statement from the federal reserve and the u.k. chancellor present his annual budget. that is followed by rate decisions from the bank of england, norway, and switzerland. friday, rate decisions from russia and mexico. other central banks giving us their rate decisions there as well but we could not get them
anna: welcome back. 17 minutes past seven this monday morning. let us get bloomberg business flash. china overseas is buying civics property assets for for quite a billion dollars leaving sitting with a temper said stake in the company. it comes as china looks to reform state owned enterprises. china overseas has agreed to sell more than one begin shares as part of the transaction. it gained in hong kong trade overnight. group hassurance
agreed to by strategic hotels and resorts from blackstone for $6.5 billion. the deal marks a record transaction for chinese buyers of american real estate giving the inshore a range of the u.s. resorts from san diego to manhattan. blackstone -- completed its acquisition of the hotel's three months ago. property developer china ibaka is getting into the railway business with an agreement to buy a stake in the shenzhen metro group though the deal is part of a restructuring plan which with the ibaka by more than $9 million in assets. the company plans to fund the acquisition by selling new shares to shenzhen metro and play -- and pay cash to make up a potential shortfall. win a quick end to bill gross's lawsuit claiming he is owed hundreds of millions of dollars after allegedly being forced out of the firm he cofounded 45 years ago.
a california state judge has tentatively ruled that gross met minimum requirements with his wrong determination lawsuit against the company. pimco says the case should be thrown out because gross failed to show he had any agreement with the firm guaranteeing his employment. as your -- that is your business flash. the: let us pick up on political story. decisions over angela merkel's refugee policy was laid bare at the cdu failed to win two western states. good to see you. what does this tell us about angela merkel's position. thate election tells us there is a splintering of the vote and it has not only affected merkel's party, the christian democrats. in all three of the states, the
governments that have been there will have to regroup because the alternative for germany party which is a new anti-immigration party that has been running for merkel's policy has made inroads. and that is the takeaway from these three elections. although, of course, clearly since merkel is in charge in berlin and the federal government, it is also a setback for her, very much so. anna: a setback for angela merkel and her party and a triumph for the anti-immigration party, particularly in one state where they have not stood before. how much long-term impact do these results have? i have read some analysis that term, they mayt have to defend that refugee policy but longer-term, does this change her tenure? from everything we know from
her closest inner circle, angela merkel is not a quitter. -- she hast actually given no indication she will change choice -- change course. whatever staying power this alternative for germany party has, and the jury is out on this, she will come out today, i will protect that we hear the people but this is a minority. you have to remember. sticking with my course in hopes of finding a solution that will redress what has happened in these elections today clinically speaking. anna: looking ahead to elections in germany. not too far off in the future. what if it could they have on her in those polls? >> the next election is 18 months away. the fall of next year. you could say that is close.
on the other hand, merkel has been working on a solution, and internationally based solution on this refugee crisis and she has also been taking domestic measures, step-by-step that do not jump out. she has been taking measures to restrict the inflow. he still has time to get more people or more of the disgruntled people in the electorate back on side. anna: tony, thanks for joining us in berlin. 7:22 a.m. theus move on and talk to business future finance. the company of today announcing releasing 119 billion pounds for growth and lending capital. we are joint by the ceo in studio. let us talk about the business. how big is the market for student loans in europe? it is incredibly different to the student loan business in america. >> we started the business with
a simple mission that no deserving student should be denied a productive education for financial reasons. in u.k., whether that is an undergraduate who is the first in her family to go to college and struggling to make ends meet or a talented twentysomething who wants to upscale and get a postgraduate degree and struggling to find the funds to do so -- people are getting locked out. anna: there is government lending, particularly in the u.k. why do they need yours? >> the government program is great and we are big supporters. but what we have found in a little over the year that we have been active in lending in the u.k. is that it is not always enough. for students with the government or parents or part-time work, we can help. anna: you have raised some funding. what are you going to do it
that? >> the majority will go to students. balance sheet lender if we use our own capital to make loans. anna: you have any deals with large banks? more established financial service industry? years?y after parts of >> we have some fantastic as well ass traditional finance firms. goldman sachs and blackstone's strategic opportunities funds is one of our investors. we work from both ends of the spectrum. anna: looking ahead to the budget in the u.k., anything you would like to see from the syntax industry -- sin tech industry? >> there are a variety of programs the government has in place that provides some level of subsidy to traditional
lending. we have a career professional loan. opening those sorts of opportunities up to alternative lenders or online lenders like ourselves would be helpful and interesting in propelling growth away from the core banks. anna: a lot of companies are dealing with millennials. you are dealing with students. what advice do you have for those businesses? be just as simple as having a good cap these days. >> i would say check your assumptions. from 18loans to people to in their 40's or 50's. you cannot put all of those people in the same box. we have found that having a great online platform and good customer service is great to get people what they need. anna: how big can this business
be in europe given the high levels of government involvement? >> the government here lends about 10 million pounds a year and that number grows every year. we believe that the total amount of money spent on education every year in this country is about 50 alien pounds. butgovernment lends a lot not everything. a lot of that additional spend comes from parents or part-time work or scholarships which are great but we believe the gap where we can be a sustainable replacement is in the billions. there is about a billion pounds per year lent by credit card. we think that at our low interest rates that the sustainable payback scheme is a good option. anna: thanks for joining us on the program. what theheck in on futures are going to open in europe. a little higher it seems very
♪ manus: welcome to on the move. it: 30 in berlin. we are tracking down the european open. i manus cranny along with hans nichols. what are we watching? good morning, hans. hans: it was a super sunday in germany. not so super for angela merkel support tumbled in regional elections as voters punish her over refugee policy pierced stepping back, the pboc governor says major stimulus. this despite data indicating
otherwise. uk's but we. george osborne set the stage for more austerity. is the bank of england governor's desk bank of england governor carney having to do the heavy lifting. having to set up the mess in berlin did -- in berlin. is she going to say anything and give any indication to members of her own party or the public that she is going to change course? at this point, it doesn't look like it. it looks like it is going be steady as she goes. manus: we could've earlier. that's we caught up earlier. -- we caught up earlier. she needs to reconsider her position. she has made it very clear -- a line from here in the united kingdom, margaret thatcher when it came to europe. it is going to be interesting to
see what backlash this has in the german context. in the european context. you got island with no government. -- you've got island with no government. how are these markets playing out? we have a slight bit up right away across european equity markets. some of the pressure this week will again be back on central banks, support stimulus. china rally by 2.6%. that gave a nice jump up. within the oft turning positive. that is what is driving the u.s. market. toward the risk. what are you watching? hans: let's take a look at asian
stocks, we see some strength in there. take a look at dollar one. ofsee it moving toward some its strongest numbers. the australian dollar is in a similar position. nymex down a full percentage point. we have been watching with the vti and brent. -- with wti and brent. >> angelahe -- i find merkel has suffered defeat as voters used free state elections to reject her open border refugee policy here the christian democratic union failed to recapture from the green. struggled to perform a viable coalition after the anti-immigration party onto 10 -- alternative for germany picked up a quarter of the vote meanwhile in the u.s. elections,
donald trump has changed the plan. monday nights rally in southern florida to ohio. john kasich may be pulling ahead here to chop has made a few other changes to a schedule. it seems to be designed at two temper down emotions after violent protests erupted in chicago. resulting in several arrests. millions of people have rallied across brazil protesting corruption and calling for the impeachment of the president. pass congress and the capital, brasilia, brazil is suffering its worst recession in decades. dozens of lawmakers and executives are embroiled in a a corruptiond investigation. 37 people have been killed and explosion -- in an explosion in
on kara -- in the turkish capital of on kara. 50 people in series condition. a blast comes less than a month after another suicide bomber killed dozens of soldiers in a convoy passing through the city. the turkish stocks and lira are trading lower. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more top stories on the bloomberg at top . hans: three state elections rejected angela merkel's open borders -- open water -- open border policy. -- it willrty struggle to form a viable coalition after the anti-immigration party picked up a quarter of the vote.
for more let's bring in germany's government editor. it is in the west. tony, thank you for joining us. explain these results. what does it mean for merkel? tony: it means a couple of things for germany, partly that the electorate is fledgling. it is been a stable party system in a germany. there is this new party that everybody is talking about. the net result for merkel is not good. it is not good for the other established parties. hans: who had a worse night? the city you are the stc? tony: you can see both of them. although merkel is in charge of berlin, she is the chancellor of 80 million german-speaking -- 80 million german-speaking.
cdu might get her back into power because of the way coalition mathworks in germany. hans: everybody's going to be focused on what kind of response, whether merkel is going to make any change or altering to her refugee position. she made it pretty clear that it is still pretty much business as usual. do you think she will intimate a change? tony: i think right now you are not going to see that. the reason is merkel is going to want to seem in control. that thergue alternative for germany represents a minority of the electorate. it is not her style. she has a summit coming up later this week. she said all along in so many words to german voters, including her own party, i need more time to get this job done.
she is that she has already taken steps domestically to reduce the inflow which is in always on the front burner, but that has been happening. hobbes: we wish we had -- hans go we wish we had more times with you. remarkable results in a big challenge from the merkel as she has toward the next round. manus, i am going to send it over to you because i believe you have someone else to talk big macro themes with. julianlet's welcome chillingworth. they have 30 billion pounds in assets under their management. , in you see this dislocation to immigration, afd surges to a record in three big blocks. 30% of the german population has pivoted to afd. this is a significant move,
isn't it? it is the beginning of a shift. this is a reasonable election and there is a degree of protest. messageit is a strong to angela merkel. one that she is taking on board although she is not going to say a great deal. to 18th, the17 discussions with turkey. how much money will europe if turkey for the refugees? what will turkey get in recompense? allowinga veto in turkey into the eu. we are back to the bartering of humans. julian: sadly, that is true. from the eu's dance, the turkish deal has some appeal.
,rom turkey's own point of view they seem to get credibility within europe. perhaps out of something that involves the bartering human beings, some good as well. manus: you are going to be with us for the next 40 minutes. sit back and sippy cup of coffee. we are going to get into turkish lira as well in reaction to these tragic events in ankara. we are seeing the lira decline. next, u.k. chancellor has cited economic uncertainty for more public spending cuts this week in the cut but -- this week in the budget. veto succumb. -- details to come. ♪
here's move the marvin austin. assets for $4.8 billion. a 10% stake in the company. it comes as china looks for reform state enterprises. overseeing and agrees to sell more than one billion shares as a part of the transaction. the insurance group has agreed to buy strategic hotels and $6.5 billion. -- record for chinese buyers giving the inshore a range of luxury resorts and hotels from san diego to manhattan. blackstone completed its acquisition in just three months ago. getting developer is into the railway business with an agreement to buy a stake in
the shenzhen metro group. --is a restructuring plan more than $9 billion in assets. the company plans to fund the acquisition by selling new upres and pay cash to make for a potential shortfall. that is a bloomberg's business flash. manus. manus: george osborne has set the stage for a number of budget cuts. he calls great economic uncertainty, speaking on sunday morning, mr. osborne said the government must be proactive and best prepare the ukip county for any future shocks. >> my message in this budget is in the world is a more uncertain place that anytime since the financial crisis. we need to act now so we do not pay later. that is why any to find additional savings.
we have to live within our means. that is way we make written fit for the future. echo let's welcome julian -- manus: let's welcome julian chillingworth. allowinghe has in turkey succession. he is staring down the barrel of a small u.k. there is a shopping list of what he might do. a bank levy, car insurance. taxes but theyse are probably by stealth. julian: i agree. you said, it is down to slow growth. suspect the, i banking insurance sectors could -- that come under scrutiny. i suspect it will not be consumer particularly with the
referendum coming up. they want to make sure the tory party are as united as they can be. consequently, i think it will be the financial sector that there's that brought. -- that bears that brought. hans: it seems like they have been spending a lot of time with schaeuble. when you look at what osborne is a believable? is their shock to the u.k. system? could be conceivable they go back and spend a little more to do something on the aggregate demand side of the equation? julian: i think you are right. career windowdressing could very well be going on. perhaps not this early in the , but as the government we get nearer the end of that term, there may well be some politics coming through that
will help the consumer and also the economy and job creation. rather like germany, the u.k. doesn't really have a problem of employment. it is suffering from slow growth globally as much as it is slow growth within the u.k. the economy is performing reasonably well. over andwill maul them we have you for much longer. coming up next, we are minutes away from the open. we will look at potential corporate movers, including law wrong and bourget. a deal is almost done. ♪
earlyng you to you live in the morning. hans is standing by in berlin. i am in london. i'm going to kick it off. it is 1992. that is if you believe bill gross. the yuan has been a futile trade. the chinese have thrown literally everything added to bring the yuan back up from that appreciation. tradersost the options half $1 billion this year. this is keeping the one against the dollar. if you want to combine desk and find an fx trader, you bring the 13n down against a basket of exchange rate currencies. that is a bloomberg mirror image. that is what the chinese are doing. those pesky options traders.
they are a part of the fray that say you should sell you on it if you cannot sell the yuan, do it vicariously. over to you, hans. when you said 1992, i was going to tell you to call your taylor who is evidently still living there. do cheape not going to shots here. take a look at this chart. this is just this year. you really see these moving in tandem. you see that turnaround in the beginning of february, really the lowest level. that is the white line. that is the all caps the world index. the commodity, they're all -- they are both heading up. people are seeing a little more optimism. they see what their happening in the commodity story here it you see that play out in the australian dollar. i am going to take back my comment about your taylor and bring him into the late 1990's.
he is not in the century yet. manus: i have a taylor at least. let's bring in julian taylor -- julian chillingworth. on reflection i quite like what hans had to say. i am glass half-full. which you prefer? youan: i would go with because i believe the depreciation felt is going to be key for 2016. truly -- we are just truly locked into this mode with the fed. let's get out to caroline. we got six minutes to go until the start of trade. caroline, what is going to be on your radar? caroline: m&a monday. we could see a deal in france
approaching. are they close to a deal? watch for the stoxx on the open. could we see the light -- see buoygues.of retail,eye on home because home retail as you see in the orange continuing see themmomentum as we close to a deal with argos. remember there seems to have the -- 1.4 billion could 1.4 billion. could the m&a squabble continued back of the this five-year chart of the london stock exchange. the close to record highs. -- so close to record highs. why? the deutsche boys could be
manus: good morning. welcome to on the move i am manus cranny. right here, we are in the city of london. hans nichols is standing by in berlin with the german balance. here is your morning brief. did notnday in germany so super friendly merkel. her support crumbles across the board in regional elections. stepping back. the tedious he governor says major stimulus is indeed to support growth, this -- u.k. budget week. george osborne steps to the
stage for more austerity. he insists the bank of england governor carney did the heavy lifting. monday, risk on today's market. hans: we're looking at a very green monday morning. let's go to the touchscreen and check out what is happening at the market. caroline hyde, what you have? caroline: we are moving toward more equity. the stamina pulled s&p 500 in the u.s., eradicating all of its losses so far this year. still 7% ago on the stoxx 600. 7% until we hit the peak that we saw the beginning of this year. we are on the way. it seems to be the likes of old mutual on the upside.