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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  March 22, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" alix: i am alix steel. joe weisenthal has the day off. , transportation posing the biggest the klein. scarlet: belgium's worst terror , islamic state claims responsibility. the ripple effect from today's violence. what it means for open borders in europe. the markets, and what to expect before tomorrow's trading in asia and europe. ourlet: we begin with market minutes. the s&p dow falling carried the dow first thing falling for the first time in eight days. we are bouncing around unchanged for most of the day. light trading. yesterday was the lightest trading day so far this year.
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today withed that the trading innocently dow stocks about 15% 20% lower than a 10 day average. alix: i am guessing that low volume has been a theme for this month. i don't think it will get better given that we are going into a holiday friday and also we have 600 and it declines there. alix: throughout the day clawing its way back to neutral. a very similar story here in the u.s. if you look at the mini-futures, you can see the whole day. the decline here when the attacks happened, choppy trading
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throughout the early morning, but a slow grind higher, ending slower, but making up a huge amount from our losses earlier in the day. scarlet: there was that move to safety once again. same story and bonds. we saw investors rallying in u.s. treasuries, but that died down later in the afternoon, treasuries fell off, more central bank speak, fed speak, charlie evans talking about the strength of recent economic data, which may be sparked speculation about an interest rate rise, which would be bad for u.s. treasury's. the real big mover was the british pound. get all major 16 currencies, political football in the wake of the terrorist attacks. against the dollar, gave up with a gains as the headlines cross, attacks bolster the argument for
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the u.k. to leave the eu. those who supported staying in the eu were saying it would be safer to do so. following the most against the dollar. alix: there was a reverse story than we saw with the s&p minis ,'s or run to the safety trade, but then slowly eroded gains, now a five dollars, if there is a geopolitical crisis, if there is a fallout and you do see that russian to gold, we didn't see it today, and it didn't hold either, despite the big rally we've seen over gold over the last few weeks. commodities,ther you did see risk off when it comes to the industrial guys, bank, led leading the declines, off the lows of the session, wti closing over $41 a barrel.
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the rally we have seen over the last few weeks has been true stunning. days is back to the old were we had a geopolitical issue and oil would rally. we have not seen that for a while. nonetheless, holding in there. scarlet: those are today's market minutes. the terrorcus were attack and brussels, the latest european city to be targeted as three coordinated blasts kill 31 people and injured more than 230. belgium remains on high terror alert. were outside the european commission headquarters, close to the scene. 13 hours after the attacks, give us a sense of what the scene is like in brussels right now. we are pretty close. >> we are close to the subway station, the scene of the second of the two attacks. the first one was at the airport, then at 9:11 a.m.,
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hundreds of people pulling out of the subway station to come to work in the buildings that surround the european commission , that bomb went off. i have to say right now that it is already evening here the scene is any peaceful there are some police you can see some of them at the checkpoints down the road. we are about 300 meters from where that subway station is. throughout the city, as i drove in, it looks a little bit like this is as usual, perhaps those people because the roads as you can select the one behind me many of the roads are closed, but there isn't a huge police presence. there are manhunts underway, but i think those are in very specific pockets. there is just the occasional reminder of how horrific this was. for example, an ambulance at just passes and we were told that was going to pick up some of the bodies from that attack from this morning. would doing no about the police operation at this point?
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they did release a photo from the airport of that third suspect that they are hunting down. right.'s the police tweeted a photo of three suspects, two of which they say were suicide bombers that they believe blew themselves up. the third, who they say they believe is still alive and are are someor, there manhunts under way. they are also looking at the connection between what took place here today and the attacks that we saw in paris back in november. these are early days, and they are really just trying to get a two crime scenes to figure out where the other threats might be in the city. but i'm early days, sure people on the ground in brussels are certainly talking about what just happened. what are they saying? >> the vast majority of people in belgium are condemning this attack. they are horrified. there have been threats of
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terrorist attacks in belgium before, but this is the biggest ever terrorist attack to take place on belgian soil. this is just not something that happens. terrorists have come from belgium to go to other places, like in the paris attacks, but you haven't seen this kind of devastation, so most people are just mortified by. i will say that one individual came up to me, a young man, and he was a sympathizer and said that there is going to be more of this. continues to participate in the coalition in syria, yeah, pretty alarming considering that understanding down the road from where 20 people were killed in a terrorist attack earlier in the day, and i chosen a very frightening way that there is a lot of hate simmering in brussels. there are almost two different peoples with two different worldviews coexisting, and maybe today we saw a manifestation of what happens when they act on their feelings. >> thank you some i've. how their the terror attacks
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affect the eurozone as a whole? to bring had of your practice at the eurasian group focusing on the european political economy and fully worked at the european commission and u.k. treasury. he joins us on the phone from london. a failure ofk europe containing terrorists. >> it is a failure. it is a failure in belgium and more broadly for the rest of europe and i don't think that tell your is lost on public opinion. there is a growing sense and perception among european public opinion that its leaders are not dealing with the terrorists, and that is resulting in a greater push towards an increase in the popularity of populist parties to hisrmany to france far east as poland and hungary. >> one thing i want to get from
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distinctiveum is because it is a tiny country, but it has provided the highest .er capita number of fighters its intelligence and law-enforcement agencies don't seem to work with one another. is belgian the exception or the norm in europe? a set ofare definitely contextual and specific facts that make belgium honorable come vulnerable, but it has captured a lot of the european institute tuition -- institution. there are a set of internal challenges. i think more broadly this is a
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consensus of europe. seen the national rhetoric jump on this today. marine le pen calling in a statement for a vast police operation to occupy neighborhoods on the fringes of the republic, to seize all the weapons and explosives that are there. this of the same time when the eu is still trying to understand how schengen borders are going to hold up with the influx of the refugee crisis. how does it play out? played tonts of today the populist narrative coma and i do think you will see populist parties captured the events of today and use it to further their own popularity and increase their own support. the bigger question is whether the response is going to be a national response.
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are we going to see the resurrection of border controls? are read going to see countries reacting unilaterally or a more collective response? leaders are talking about more a sharedon, more of collective responsibility, and ultimately what were likely to see is more nationalization of the policy response. you are going to see countries certainly on the borders becoming much more national in their thinking and in their policy responses. >> right. we have already seen seven countries institute border checks in the schengen reason. thank you so much. tower lete the eiffel up in the evening in the colors of the belgian flag, and this is a little over four months as the terrorist attack there back in november. ♪
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>> let's get the first word news. brussels is on the highest terror alert following the worst attack in the country's history, 31 killed and 230 wounded following two attacks at the airport and one at a subway station. islamic state claiming responsibility for the violence. world leaders from president obama to pope francis have condemned today's attacks. we do have president obama now , air force one
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taxing in havana. telling the cuban people in a nationally televised address that he wanted to bury the past, that now was the time for a new chapter in u.s.-cuba relations. he did meet with several dissidents and society leaders today, requiring great courage for leaders to be active in cuban civic life and said human rights is "an area where we continue to have deep differences with the cuban government." india has the most people with no access to clean water, according to a new report from the international charity. the group estimate 76 million people living in india are forced to spend their limited funds on water. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton in new york. from have breaking news
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nike, earnings just crossing the wire. third-quarter revenue $8 billion, earnings per share $.55, analysts looking for $.49, so a beat on the bottom line. gross margin, 45.9% for profitability, consensus estimate was 45.5%, so slightly higher. , orders up 17%, excluding the currency effects. when you include currency effects come up 12%, consensus was 16.1 percent, so a better futures order number as well. nike beating on the bottom line, and future orders beating estimates. >> the stock moving lower in after-hours trading. "what'd you miss?" the big market fallout, the pound falling the most in a month, fears of anti-eu backlash tilting the odds towards the brexit. joining me is senior fx
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strategist. big move ine that sterling. is the fear or speculation embodied by that moved justified? is that ifern now you frame the argument around situationound the that is around anti-immigration type of model that has a spillover effect into sterling andinto broader eu eurozone. in this circumstance, it has fueled that concern, a more anti-immigration rhetoric from the camp that once to leave the eu zone altogether, but intainly i think that helps this circumstance to undermine through the sterling going forward into the second quarter.
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other reasons the pound could a falling, right? >> there is some inflation data that was not great. >> inflation data has been solved. the expectation for inflation in the u.k. is to fall below the 1% threshold as you have the effects of past depreciation, sterling strength over the course of the last year work its way into the cpi figures, so to some extent that plays a role. i think right now the focus for the markets is what does this mean in the next 3-6 months as we face the referendum on june 23. >> was it surprising that we did not see the euro fall more fall more? happeningt what is with the u.k. and that is getting a lot of focus as we get closer to the actual date. my concern there is certainly to fuel thishelps
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right-wing nationalistic movement, given that we do have that migrant crisis going on in europe, and certainly a situation for the last two years or so. andoes undermine the euro the eurozone project, but i think right now markets have a very short attention span. what is ahead of us is brexit, and i think that still topical and certainly does suggest that we could see some ripple effects into the euro more generally. take onve seen the euro a safety trade with the yen versus the dollar. we did not see that reaction today. >> that's a good point. when you think about that? what is the safe haven currency here? , a scenario euro where you have terrorist attacks
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and the threat of more? , thereegards to the yen are domestic idiosyncrasies in japan that favor it as a currency that is a safe haven. i would throw the swiss into that scenario as well, but in the coming quarter, but with respect to the japanese yen, i think that is a circumstance where you have the bank of japan implementing negative rates by surprise, and certainly the g-20 , there was to stain around what the bank of japan did, tension reallocation has been a theme for 2015, and the concern is that there is probably more of a case and you can see the again remain strong over the medium turn as you have the demographics weakening in japan's a you do have external reliance on external income to repatriate back into japan, so i a safeyes, it will be haven currency and it will be a situation sustained for quite
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some time. joining you so much for us. coming up, is the ecb fueling the next credit bubble? that is next. ♪ a look at shares of nike in late trading, falling after the company reported earnings, missing on revenue estimates. ♪
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credit markets may no longer before shuttling economic disaster after ecb easing pushed yields lower.
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last time you were here, you were worried about the credit market and what it was implying about the u.s. economy. how do you feel? >> the ecb's move into credit markets was something that has a meaningful short to medium term effect. if you reset the balance of supply and demand in europe in credit markets, i don't think it has a permanent effect. corporate activity and corporate profitability is going to be what matters as it matures, but it had a dramatic effect. as far as the fed's concern, i think that was something of a surprise. i think the timing of this forsion was a surprise those who took the fed as -- at its word. they chose the march meeting to re-address the rest of 2016. i'm not sure it matters that much. corporate conditions are going to be what matters.
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the actual trajectory of domestic inflation is going to be what matters, but for the thingsing you had two quite surprising for different reasons, fed and ecb moves. >> i wonder to what extent
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people are paying attention to credit rating downgrades. these are the things called fallen angels and markets, companies going down to john, god's gift to financial journalist headline writers. >> we have seen shares outstanding in the junk bond etf's, more demand no matter how many fallen angels we see. >> you have two big things happening in high-yield in mid february, no issuance so far year to date. the second thing is a lot of people saw it as a huge buying .pportunity the fundamentals are what matters now. what impact would that have on the high-yield market. what impact would that have
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on the high-yield market? >> it is an interest rate story. credit is helped by inflation to an extent. the danger is the fed has come would not doit anything significant this year. inflation is not a worry over the medium-term to the end of 2016. core cpi tells you something somewhat different, and if commodity prices have put in something of a low here then ,eadline cpi and headline pce they won't be historically high, but may be surprisingly high level given where expectations are. >> do think janet yellen is trying to overshoot? not as worriedis about overshooting as cratering the credit market. that's a with waiting too long. 2-3 years ago, the fed had an easy opportunity to raise interest rates, right now it is
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difficult to they don't want to be blamed for anything. >> always great to see you. we see how david cameron reacted to today's situation. ♪
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>> let's get the first word news. belgium belize conducted raids across the country today, looking for a suspect in today's deadly terror attacks. this follows would officials believed to be was to suicide bombings at the brussels airport in addition to an attack at a downtown subway station. belgian federal police believe that three airport suspects are seen in this image with the two on the left thought to have died in the suicide bombings. the third man on the right wearing the hat is believed to be a large. have been arrested following monday's attack on the european union military mission headquarters in the capital of mali.
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one of the attackers was killed. it is the latest in a series of assaults on hotels in west africa. taiwan's government plans to our ofhe media on a tw the south china sea to reinforce a its territorial claims in the disputed region. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. >> let's get a recap of global markets. the dow decline for the first time in eight days, ending the longest winning streak since october. trading was slow, the slowest day of the year thus far. u.s. stocks bouncing around the 20%anged line, trading below the 10 day average. the headline was all about the terrorist attacks in brussels.
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alix: yes, it was paired the resilience of the markets after , relatively flat despite declines, futures also taking a big leg lower, but able to claw their way higher. the nasdaq having his longest rally in 11 months. >> it feels like one of those market days where they are in search of a narrative. everything is bouncing around, quite a few different things going on, lots of geopolitical events, and often difficult for investors to immediately interpret how those are going to shake out. one interpretation in these currency market was to sell the pound. the british crown weaken against all 16 major currencies. it has become a political football, even more so in the wake of the terror attacks. cameron,hat david politicians, in favor of the uk's staying in the eu stay staying in the eu would make it safer, those headlines don't help. scarlet: it's where the action
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was great in the commodity market come you thought you saw a little bit of action in gold and golden that save haven bid, couldn't sustain a, gold ended up only four dollars them all lower. "what'd you miss?" the pound posing its biggest decline, speculations of terror attacks boost chances of brexit. in response, david cameron said the world must unite. times,e are difficult appalling terrorist, but we must stand together to do everything we can to stop them and make sure that although the attack our way of life and attack us because of who we are, we will never let them win. >> joining us from london the codirector of open europe, an independent policy think tank, following issues in the european union. how do the attacks today change the brexit conversation? the first thing to say is we
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still don't know a lot about the attacks and what lies behind them, how involved this is in terms of foreign influence or domestic homegrown issues, and how the eurozone free border zone is in the underlying factors behind this attack. that being said, i do think it could have ramifications for the braves a, but it could cut both ways. on the one hand, we know the initial response reflected in the currency markets today is that people were generally want as much as this is between them and the eu as possible, that the instinctive response will say, well, the eu is in chaos, this attack added to migration crisis , this is something we don't want to be part of her be involved in. you being said, i think as heard from david cameron, security, safety, big part of the remaining campaign. he will try to make that point and make the point that these issues are global, definitely pan european, and need to be tackled on a pan-european level,
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and only by working with our partners in the eu can we tackle those issues. i think you can also make the point that the u.k. is not in schengen. we do have control of our borders. if we leave, what extra cross the we get to protect ourselves from a security perspective here ? i think that can be an effective point. obviously as we have seen in the currency markets, the initial reaction is we have to move away from the you, and in that sense, the initial feeling is that it has been a boost to those who want to see brexit. >> a lot of upper mystic -- a lot ofthat opportunistic politicians are conflating the border crisis and the refugee crisis and the terrorist attacks. born andkers were raised in western europe, homegrown terrorists. we'vet is a fair point heard some people making that point. prime minister renzi made that point saying if we close borders it does not stop the issues we are ready have here, the people here already, and homegrown
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factors. adding to the fact, as i said, that the u.k. is not insured once, it makes it harder we get passes initial stage for those who want to lead to really argue that outside we would have extra talks to protect ourselves that this is really an issue which has been fermented by the eu. that being said, obviously we do have to see over time as the investigation into these attacks go on whether or the migration crisis and the free border zone is facilitating any of the movement of these attackers, and that was similar issues that we saw around the paris terror attacks, so certainly if that does to not to be the case and within that will add a new layer to the migration and we could see a renewed populist bush for closing borders and going back to national border regimes. aboute talking a lot disunity in the idea of terrorism fermenting populist outrage. i want to play devil's advocate, what possibility is it that the
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sort of events actually fuel a renewed sense of togetherness in the region? i think it is certainly possible that it could play that way in the aftermath of the paris attacks. we did see a boost for populist parties, but it has been due to a long-term migration crisis rather than the security aspect. if you look at the eu long-term polling in terms of brexit is well, while there was a slight boost from the terror attacks, it wasn't lasting. it is not obvious which way this will cut here at european leaders will make the case that this is something that needs to be dealt with on the european level and obvious who the initial responses that were seeing is a lot of countries wanting to help out. you should pictures earlier of lots of monuments displaying the belgian fly, so it does provoke a sense of unity, but i think in the longer term, combined with the migration crisis, we don't know which affects will dominate yet. >> in the meantime, david
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cameron has been arguing that the u.k. will be safer in the eu , so these kind of events make it a harder sell to the public for against the brexit. >> that's a good point. we can't forget the bigger backdrop, the events that happened last week between the eu and turkey. deal that europe struck with turkey still stand? >> this is an interesting question. it is hard to say. turkey issue is playing into the border concerns. a lot of people are questioning both in the u.k. and in other european countries whether the eu is right to strike a deal with a country that has a poor human rights record, a poor record on security, enforcing security across the border into the eu, and whether this new deal will make a significant change on that front, so a lot of people are questioning that. in the wake of this, there may be more questions, and i do think it will play into the
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broader debate. in terms of security issues for the u.k., while it does make it harder initially for david cameron to make his case, a put security on the radar, and if you look at polling before the paris terror attacks in a couple lemans afterwards, security was low down on the issues of people cared about, so making a case to stay in the eu about security is very hard because is not some thing people identify with, but obvious he now it is going to be back on the top of the issues, and again come as is a before, it's not clear which way it will cut in terms of who benefits in the brexit debate, so i would be a bit cautious about trying to many illusions at this point of time. >> would you expect david cameron to do to try to stem that fear and get the country on tech to an anti-brexit outcome? >> i think he has identified the key lines he wants to make, the better world for the u.k. being in the eu, that it has a security arrangement, not in
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schengen, that it has the economic benefits, but not the political benefits, and this is a narrative he will continue to play. what we have seen from other referendums is that a lot of people, particularly undecided voters, don't pay that much attention until much later on in the campaign, and to last six weeks, even the last month, so i think in the next few months we will see a campaign ramping up, but cameron will keep hammering home the same messages and i think he will do that and tell he is sick of saying these key points. three more months to go. thank you so much. >> u.s. manufacturing making a rebound. next, we have the chart that explains it all. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. that is time for the bloomberg business flash. shares of nike declining in after-hours after third-quarter sales that this is estimates. the future orders in emerging markets also missed projections. nike shares have gained a must for percent through the close. liquidators reached finding meaning $2.4 , chemicals exceed acceptable levels. scarlet: the state says the automakers emissions rigging scheme violated law.
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the lawsuit seeks civil plus restitution for 3800 vehicle owners. that is the bloomberg business flash. u.s. manufacturing making a rebound. check out this chart i have made. it is beautiful in colors of the rainbow. you like it? it's colorful. data from thead richmond fed, and enormous rebound, the biggest in something like 20 years since 1993. >> if you look at all of these fed manufacturing indicators, all positive except for the kansas city fed and the dallas fed in yellow, some effects from the shale fallout. i'm just speculating. the thing that is interesting is how fast that rebound has been. remember in february we were worried about the u.s. economy falling apart and a big
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manufacturing retreat around the world. it has recovered sharply. you have service and manufacturing picking up on both ins. >> right. charlie evans talked about that today, pointing to strong manufacturing data. scarlet: with the dollar continued to weekend, that might get a further boost alix:. alix:that is a good point. alix: that is a good point. these tend to be volatile indicators. scarlet: i'm taking a look at global fx volatility, the white line, increasing on the whole, peaking on february 11 before easing. the red line is dollar-yen. when the line rises, the yen strengthens, so rising volatility and a stronger yen, falling volatility, weaker yen. >> the yen has continued to
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strengthen. spiked that volatility really in late january. the yenother reason why may be strengthening could be because were seeing repatriation before the end of the japanese fiscal year on march 31. portfolio ideahe that one of our previous guests brought up. the yen trend is still for further strengthening. i'm looking at oil. you can check out these charts at the bottom of your screen. at backwardation
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from the difference between the two contracts. the higher goes, the bigger the contango. the wider the difference between the two prices, pointing to weaker prices, as this line is declining, it is flirting with backwardation. this is bananas. prices areon means more expensive currently than they are in the future, so that has inverted the curve. the kind of looks like backwardation. it points to a tighter market. yes, we have seen tightening in the oil market, but we aren't tight yet. this kind of spread is compression, higher prices in the first month versus the second month, unjustified as the rally gets ahead of itself because the market isn't truly tight. of supplylot disruptions, u.s. production rolling over, but markets are getting way ahead of themselves
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here. alix: is there a seasonal factor to three aware of? alix: no, not really. it is legit rollover, legit shutting in of nigeria, disruptions in iraq, creating minute backwardation in the spread. it is so cool. scarlet: flirting with backwardation. excited about contango in backwardation. it makes me happy. that four market trends you do not want to miss, coming up. ♪
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alix: i am alix steel. "what'd you miss?" for top market trends. our next guest is bullish.
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s&plist has beaten the 500 eight times in the past eight years. is the percentage of stocks above 50 day moving average, tell us what you see. it is a straightforward chart, what's doing well to how it has been doing. you see this is a very broad-based rally. previous led by one or two groups with other groups falling behind. 93 .4% of stocks are above the 50 day moving average. >> why is the trendline so important? >> it shows who is moving up. the last 50 days haven't been that good. as shaped where everything has gone down and bounced up
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from the february low. see again and again in these different markets, this shape, stronger down and a strong move up. alix: this is what i don't get about technical analysis. people seem to read the same thing differently. there saying it is good for bull market because everyone has been worried about it. we have bespoke investment group be a badat it could thing because it indicates the market is really overbought at this point. >> once you get that to an extreme level, and you can see on the complete opposite side that instead of 90%, it was 12% at the low, so a lot of the technical people who look for those turnarounds, that's what they look for. the dow jones transportation gorage has been rising, as
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the transports, so goes the dow, but we have not seen that correlation play out. >> sometimes these deep dives are these bread and butter charts. , 130-year oldorts index, and it hasn't shown much strength at all, but it has bounced off that february low, about 20%. fedex got a nice bounds. , but seen the shippers some weakness in the airlines, but that won't last. people aren't going to ship goods in less you expect concerts -- consumers to buy it. alix: you think of something fundamentally driven? >> i think it is. have had good economic news,
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not great, but improving economic news, and that is following what the fed is talking about, a change in where interest rates are going, and then we will have a q1 earnings in three weeks, so i think there has been a broad change in how the economy is going to perform. alix: another thing is what's happening in the credit markets. we saw the high-yield spreads start to tighten. does that mean things are fundamentally getting after? -- getting better? that is the same thing consumers are willing to take on more risk. this is why it today was a fascinating day. since that low, everything bounce, we saw people willing to take on more risk. now we get this terrible news coming out of belgium, now people, if you were scared, you have an excuse to pull back.
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not really. look at the volatility, low. did not get a bump today. we did not see the rush to short-term treasuries. people have that excuse, and they largely didn't take it. alix: good to see you. thank you so much. >> breaking news, origin technologies a higher offer, according to people familiar with the matter. it is planning a 17 share dollar bid. we will continue to monitor this one. this was from earlier this morning, that he remains confident its merger pact is superior. upt you need to know to gear for tomorrow's trading day. that is next. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" brazil reports unemployment data tomorrow. 8.1%, afters is for 7.6% in january. jamesu.s. federal bank bullard visiting bloomberg headquarters in new york, making an appearance on bloomberg television and radio at 9:00 a.m. eastern. i'm excited for that one. don't miss to new -- don't miss new home sales tomorrow. we are looking for signs of improvement. alix: stick with bloomberg television throughout the evening into the open of asian
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and european markets. thank you for watching. have a great evening. ♪
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♪ john: good evening from the mar-a-lago club in palm beach. mark and i will sit down with talk foreign policy, and the terror attacks in belgium. we will show you that program tomorrow night. here are the facts about what happened in brussels this morning. three explosions in the capital killed 31 and injured more than 200. isis has claimed responsibility for the attacks. two bombings were at a busy airport terminal. another went off at a subway station.

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