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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  April 5, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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carroll: good afternoon. here's is what we're watching at this hour. is the global economy on firm footing? click -- christine lagarde is not certain. where are the biggest downside risks? >> camera public presidential candidates steal momentum away from donald trump. and later on, more fallout from the panama papers. allegations of using off-shore's shell companies. who will be next? away from this close of trading this tuesday. let's head to where julie hyman has the latest on the trade. kind of all over the place. julie: it is the biggest one-day
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pullback in almost a month we have not had big swings in stocks as of late. thatght not be part of metric because we are down. definitely coming up off the lows of the day. note whereut with a he said it would be difficult after the latest recovery in stock to get a second wind. he thinks there are two main obstacles. one is that the buyback, companies themselves have been a big source of demand in stock. also, corporate profits would be difficult in the coming reporting season. that means stocks will rally. take a look here. this is the median strategist forecast for the s&p 500 here and in yellow. there is a lot of pessimism over u.s. stocks right now. the median forecast, 2150.
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this deftly a consensus at point that stocks will not be able to maintain gains. he is not alone at being pessimistic on -- specifically. this the change going into the earnings season. we have had about 10 percentage points in the earning estimates for companies in the s&p 500. is pessimistic. the caveat is, companies tend to beat earnings-per-share estimates between 75%. let's talk about concerns of a couple of deals out there that may be will not happen. allergan afternd new rules of tax inversion. this is an example. game inequires our ireland, there are a lot of questions about whether the deal will be able to go through.
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pfizer is now scrambling for ways to salvage the deal and the tax savings. then there is baker hughes and halliburton. a person familiar with the department of justice's plants says the doj is prepared to file suit, to block the deal from happening. not reacting that much to this, as the analyst says earlier, this deal has been in the works for a long time. pessimism has been growing. halliburton shares also not seeing a lot of change today. along been bumping unchanged. investors are soon to be unhappy about it. mark crumpton has more from the news desk. president obama spoke out
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against tax in versions today. inversions occur when companies move abroad for lower tax rates. the usage has sparked a political outcry. the president spoke earlier at the white house briefing room. president obama: i am pleased the treasury department has taken new action to prevent more corporations from taking advantage of one of the most insidious tax loopholes out there and fleeing the country just to get out of paying their taxes. mark: the remarks come the day after the treasury department theunced rules limiting ability of companies to participate in inversions if they have done that in the past months. a $160 billion merger between pfizer. thousands of people protested outside parliament, demanding prime minister step down after taxgations of his offshore affairs. elite financial documents alleged the prime minister and
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his wife set up a company in the british virgin islands -- virgin islands. he denied any wrongdoing. it is the second two resign amid street protests after forced out during the 2009 financial collapse. the trump -- dump trump movement is hoping to gain traction. ted cruz is leading the .epublican front-runner scott walker. exit polls will show hillary clinton is winning over more younger and white working-class voters. polls show that senator bernie sanders has a narrow lead. he needs to win 67% of the nation -- of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. beenew zealand leader has sending troops to iraq to run for secretary-general of the united nations. the candidacy comes amid a global campaign to elect a woman at top diplomatic post.
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they've candidate and forth succeed -- who will finish his term later this year. global news 24 hours a day power by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. back to you. stocks are rich reading today along with the price of oil. overmes amid doubts proposed deals of free supply look at the impact? he joins us live from boston on tuesday. nice to have you here for us. impact on the equity trade and the emerging markets trade. notice, in lockstep with the price of oil on the way -- last week, there was a
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diversions in the trade. the stock market had yet to .atch up with saudi arabia they were not going to unless iran -- iran says they have no intention of doing so. i think it is spilling over into .he equity markets globally emerging market economies are commodity centered to begin with. inis hurting equities developing economies as well. in the short run, oil is back on the front burner as a primary concern for equity markets. carol: should it considering fundamentals take a step back? does it just -- justify some of the moves down if you will? >> in the energy market, think it was more hope than actual fundamentals.
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the rig count is down. but production has not declined to much. in fort of equities go, maybe closer to full value than what .e saw also you have had real concerns about how strong the dollars would be with the fed backing off. the dollar has weakened a little bit. that has supported risk assets. as you said, it will all be aboutthat. the dollar.entioned the strength of the dollar, how will that impact? >> the weakest -- also, ineconomy
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industrial materials, energy sectors, which individually are not that big but collectively they are. the strong dollar has been a real headwind for that type. there is not much traction. that is not going to be enough. it looks like at least the consensus -- if the consensus is right, we may be down year-over-year in the first quarter. carol: when you look at the economy, on friday, we get a read on the labor market once again. the inhave optimism regards to the second half of the year and does that provide an underpinning for the equity market? thet does and we think economy will pick up steam in the middle part of the year. quarter, we looking
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for 1.4% gdp growth. there is a chance we could see earnings start to recover in certain sectors. it will all depend on whether oil stabilizes in the 40 plus dollar range. if not, i am afraid the numbers will be negative as well. the domestic economy, it looks like it will improve. we think the second house should be a little better. carol: what a year it has been a tremendous selling. we have bounced back to mid february lows. we gained back a lot and here we are in the funny and tricky spot nobody has high expectations for corporate earnings. we will see what happens. we could end a year with a year
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that does not move ultimately. david: we could be in for another type of your like that. supported by low inflation and low interest rates. we could end up with another flat year. our forecast is we will end up about five or 6%. that would mean we would have to do -- have a good second half of the year. what are you doing with client money? a broad-based question. a lot of people have different scenarios and different goals. what do you think investors kind of hang on to this year? david: the first thing is we have pulled money away from eurozone and away from japan. last year, we were overweighted in those areas.
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in the bond market, we would say investment grade credit, triple be rated category looks ok. -- tively next 20oming up in the minutes of bloomberg markets, we will talk party -- politics. , will he still donald trump's funder tonight at the primary? so goes the nasdaq. we will take a look. also, christine lagarde has an uncertain outlook to the global economy. we find out her biggest areas of concern. you are watching bloomberg markets on this tuesday. ♪
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carol: quick check on the markets. we have seen stocks bouncing around. a different tone from what we got last week. the dow jones industrial average is down 91%. the s&p, it decline of 16 points, down the most of the major equity averages. the 10 year note yield touching the lows in a month.
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and little bit of a trading session on this tuesday. a look at some of the biggest is notice stories in the news right now. pfizer is said to be scrambling to save its plan of a merger with allergen. -- the latestr u.s. crackdown on inversion. as well as restructuring the deal. valeant pharmaceuticals is set to be offering lenders more money. restrictions on his own credit. people familiar say the drugmaker is facing resistance with creditors. -- the stock is gaining on the news. halliburton, julie talking about this earlier, facing a law suit from the justice department about its proposed takeover of
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baker hughes. legal action could be filed us in his this week. trust laws eliminating competition. donald trump is talking about he would pay for the proposed war on mexico. he says he will block money transferred across the border. data shows mexico will get about $25 billion annually. trump's plan might be a little too far-fetched. president obama: the notion that we will track every western , a bit of money sent to mexico, you know, the luck with that.
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talk about the wall first. we are listening to a trump has to say. is it plausible? >> etiquette surprise a lot of people. he has been talking about the wall and only said mexico will pay for the wall. that is the biggest refrain when he goes to the rally. surprised some people in that when you look at it, you think, how would you block it. clearly, somebody has thought about it. the president was right there. these transactions are perfectly legal and come from legal migrants back home. you're talking about western union. a huge volume. how that would action work. donald trump says the patriot .ct a lot of lawyer -- lawyer the national security experts will be looking at it. people are looking at it
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to say, can he do it this way? >> that is part of the phenomenon of donald trump. we will probably narrow his path a little bit. i do not think it is coincidental. to being is not used the underdog. how come he is? megan: wisconsin was always going to be hard for him for a couple of reasons. one was the evangelical population, but most importantly, how he is doing with women in higher educated voters. wisconsin has a higher energy -- higher proportion of more educated voters. he has not done well with the audience. -- wel see signs tonight will watch for signs that he is lost momentum. very unusual.
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we watched to see if those teams had the best numbers. there are states further along the calendar in pennsylvania where he has a lot of a shot at. that white well politics becomes a lot more likely. that is what everyone will be talking about tomorrow. >> it will be interesting to see how he does not handle it. we will have to see. talk to me about the democratic side of it. bernie sanders and hillary clinton. megan: bernie has an openness the peoplest of expect him to win in wisconsin. donald trump has been helping hillary clinton in the sense that we are not talking about continuing the campaign of
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bernie sanders. strongld think should be . working-class voters. his story and campaign is still kind of under right now. what does it say that we have so many players in the field at this point. it is surprising, yes? megan: unusual. particularly on the workup -- the republican side. we could have a situation where three candidates is make their own argument. i am up all night, you know me. carol: good stuff. megan murphy. still ahead, in an exclusive threatsw, the biggest on the global economy. that is coming up. stick around.
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carol: good to see you, todd. we are seeing now i fell off that has gone on for a couple of days. there is a lot of pessimism going into earnings season. do you think things will get worse? >> i think things have a chance of getting worse. only, the expectations were way too high from here. there will probably be pressure coming into the market.
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are still not seeing a real panic selloff. i think it will look to get a little worse. companies beat earnings sessions by a wide margin. what is the chance we will see a pop here as companies come out and beat those estimates? >> i do not think we will see much of a pop. remember, much more reduced earnings. has gotten that much lower. what we need to see is retail and that sector starts. we have buyers coming back. that will show improvement in the market. until we see a consumer coming back in the market, that is the problem. making most of the money buying back the stock in the fed. is wee really need to see
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are actually getting better. you are- julie: looking for a trade or walk me through the trade. volatility, market street on volatility. it usually rises on markets fall. could just just gets absolutely crushed. i wonder if we actually by volatility without exposing myself to risk. i will use a spread. the second week of may and i will sell -- ♪
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thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. carol: a quick check on the markets. 30 minutes away from the closing bell.
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the dow jones industrial average, almost about 100 points to the downside, down .8% when it comes to the nasdaq, a 38 point drop. lower by about 78 points on the s&p. down .8%. let's start with a check of the headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. president obama says he's pleased with news -- new steps being taken. companies move abroad for lower tax rates. the usage has sparked political outcry. keep mostobama: they of the business here in the united states because they benefit from america's technology.re and they benefit from our research benefitlopment and they
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from american workers who are best in the world. they effectively announce -- renounce their citizenship. thereby getting all of the rewards of the american company and responsibilities to pay their taxes the way everyone else is supposed to pay them. mark: the president made his remarks the day after they announced rules to limit the ability of companies to produce a date in inversions if they have already done them in the past six months. this could prevent a $160 billion merger between pfizer and allergan. for theulls today wisconsin republican and democratic primaries. republicans will reward 18 delegates to their statewide winner and three more to the winners in each of the state eight congressional districts. ted cruz is aiming to clean up in milwaukee. john kasich has been focusing on madison and donald trump has been expected to do well up
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north. a republican senator she is more convinced than ever there should be hearings on president obama's nominee. susan met with merrick garland on capitol hill for more than an hour. she is one of today's gop senators to call from -- call for hearings but mitch mcconnell said there would be no hearings or votes. sages granted to iran under the landmark nuclear deal will not mean access to the u.s. financial system according to a senior obama administration official who today said reporters would be allowed to deal directly with u.s. banks are inaccurate. the secretary of state for political affairs testified. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world are and i am mark crumpton. back to you. markets are closing in 28 minutes from now. abigail doolittle is live with the latest. talk about the session.
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down a lot. day in ag lower all relatively tight range. the nasdaq's first, considering the huge volatile over the last 18 months. it could be worth monitoring to see whether or not it develops into a new time of risk off. shares are lower on concerns. apple's earnings can be hit by 15% on the inversion role. behind apple's cisco systems. it downgrade the stock to a neutral from a buy. saying margin expansion is limited. there are a few to take the stock higher, similar to the nasdaq himself. trading in a training -- trading range over the last two years.
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definitely a lower note there. anything that we are seeing are bucking down the trends? tesla, stocks were down 2%, now higher by 3%. the company missed the forte -- the forecast by 7.4%. the company reaffirmed the view of at least 80,000 vehicles. credit suisse is pretty bullish here. he has raised his price target to $280 per share. technicals are pretty bullish. the stock is above the average, that the buyers are interested. thank you. tesla is up 6.5% on the yourself are far. moving to comments from an ims mentioned director. the risk to the global economy. in an exclusive interview,
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francine mike wallace being told about the biggest concern. >> we see the baseline as slightly lower but we also see the downside risk a bit higher on the horizon. we do not see much by the way of upside. we believe the key risks, china, change of model, the price for longer, and the tightening of financials as the result of new monetary policies, that has just begun and more has probably come up as the key factors. seeon top of it, we also concerning geopolitical threats that have an economic impact on many countries around the world. foldingwe have guests with the grexit. >> it is clearly part of the
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uncertainty we have at the moment, particularly in the european union and concerning the financial sector as well because of the size of the financial sector that represents. >> you are concerned about the debt load there, concerned that despite all of the central-bank action, we still have very low growth. are we looking at a shock? >> i would not say china is no growth. 6.5%. it is something to write home about. we see the chinese authorities as being determined to tackle fragility's of the system. out, theyeaders come will restructure prices, which are clearly one drag on growth. particularly in that change of
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business models. you do not need as much construction, you do not need as much heavy-duty manufacturing. that is a restructuring, which would imply a lot of hard work. a lot of manpower being retrained, hopefully. it implies a lot of balance sheet revisions that all have an impact in the long-term. in a way, the fact that china can produce around the world, it is a badge of honor of being a part, a critical part of the globalization of the economy. francine: you do not worry about the economy? >> what we fear is this very new mediocre i have one about.
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growth.ld mean weak inflation,, no high all of those things that should be low and are high. continuing that trend. namedl for what i have the three-pronged approach which combined structural measures, fiscal policies, and monitor policies. the three to get her, not just one after the other, we have seen monitor policies at the moment. we need it fast. >> we also have the leak in greece. did that change your relationship dramatically with the greece and the eu companies in general? >> we continue to be focused on addressing the situation by negotiating in good faith with twofold objectives.
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one is to restore the financial stability of the country and give it debt sustainability. number two, to equip that competitiveness, productivity, and structural reforms that are needed to be independent. the objectives have not changed. the negotiations will continue to have a team on the ground at the moment and we will continue to do so in good faith. agree --nd is like to is that a case? up.verything has to add those are the magic words. if the primary surplus is a bit lower because that is what greek authorities and greek people can deliver, it means the debt operation needs to be a bit stronger or longer term. but it needs to add up. --hope it will not be done we wanted to be done by a long-standing, sustainable measures.
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that would last after the ims has disappeared from the greek landscape. >> you are still willing to play an active role by greece. >> i been invited to engage our efforts through very haveplished staff members .o do it the scandal known as the panama papers lead to the resignation of the prime minister of iceland. wrote -- will more world leaders follow? ♪
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carol: the legal team for sumner redstone is said to be in talks over an extra friend claim that she is incompetent according to people familiar with the matter. the case was set to go to trial next month. redstone is the shareholder of viacom. eastern mountain sports parent company could be headed for bankruptcy. a person familiar said the could file as soon as next week. the company operates eastern mountain chains. default would follows boards authority bankruptcy just last month underscore and the challenges of sporting goods in
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history. to quit newcision jersey from florida could complement -- competition estimates of how much tax money the state will collect. that is according to the head of the legislators. in january, relocated his management there. florida is free of personal income and state taxes. your bloomberg business flash. let's turn now to the fallout from the so-called panama papers. the prime minister of iceland is resigning after panama documents showed he and his wife had invested space in the british virgin islands. the prime minister has faced mast -- mass protests. for more on the complicated web let's bring in joe weisenthal, cohost of what did you miss. see all theating to
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different pieces. what do we know so far? it is a lot of paper so far. we have not gone through all of them. joe: it is the first time i have ever heard of a story measured in terabytes. we typically do not talk about stories that way. in this case, because there is so much data and so much was apparently taken from the law firm, we have -- people talk about, people have known about off shoring for a while, but this is sort of the first seeple people really had to how it works and the specifics and how these are set up. we are talking about a lot of different accounts in different individuals. we know it happened with iceland. is this the tip of the iceberg so far in terms of what we know? joe: i think it is an open question or journalists have been looking through the data for a while. at this point, if you are
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someone really major -- it is possible the good stuff is out. they will definitely keep rolling out more and there were probably be more revelations in the days and weeks ahead. yet.not think we know newspaper,german classic examples, someone started sending a report there, documents encrypted, the newspaper said they do not even know what who the person was. all encrypted chat. they gave the documents to investigative journalism organization again because there were just so many, and with all the media organizations around the world, a lot of people are interested in that story as well , how the journalism all over the world, they set up a search engine internally can set up a
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password to access it. have seen things we on wikileaks, it is not all available for everyone to search through. what isa has decided important. they do not want to release everything. president obama talking specifically about taxi version. joe: bernie sanders pointed to a 2000 senate, specifically about panama. narrative into the that he has run his entire campaign on. the cayman islands, the place where people park money. where is it located?
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handful of these places down there. a lot of them, former british colonies. people will talk about in the days ahead, the response ability the u.k. has. people are talking about the haves and the have-nots, the loopholes people partake in. joe: it plays into frustration people have in europe. iceland, this is a country that had a major crisis and all of this austerity. whil -- so much to joeu
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weisenthal, cohost of what did you miss. of author of hidden wealth nations, we will talk more about the fallout of panama papers, something we will be following for some time. coming up, the close of trading is moments away. let's look at major averages. down 6% on the dow. the nasdaq is off 41%. s&p down .9%. the yen rallying with treasuries. the yen is the strongest in its 20 against the dollar since 14 at trades playing out as investors worry about the global economic outlook. ♪
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carol: let's get back to julie hyman who has got your market check.
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julie: a down day back toward the lows of the session here. ,s we close out, the nats that leading losses as they have been all day. setting up for the worst losses in the about one month time. overall in the globe today. ticket event unusual trait. i want to get back to the challenge to the taxi version deals. out with new rules. we have a number of different countries. this is the high-profile example , pfizer is now struggling and scrabbling to come up with ways to salvage the deal and make it as tax effective as it was
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before. allergan falling but far from the only example. today after it could see a 50% drop in earnings , cut in earnings related to the inversion talk to her you can see down 1% here. waste deal, a canadian waste deal, waste connection, buying progressive waste, a deal worth around $9 billion, currently agreed upon in january. progressive is a canadian company. some concerns about that today. we're watching another medical health related deal. down 7%. shire agreed to acquire in january, $32 billion. facing its inversion deal, some analysts are saying this deal is likely to go through. the shares are still down today.
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let's get more on the markets with the s&p 500 headed to the steepest loss in weeks. looking atve been interesting things when it comes to earnings. you have noticed trends. what is going on? activity. seen we see a lot of hedging going on . not across the board it on the flipside, companies that are supposed to be bickering -- bigger, not a lot of headwind. little bit of contrary behavior as to what you could expect. luckily, there was a good expect -- explanation. technology has been good low even though we see apple, we are concerned about some of the outlook. why? >> the lower you lower the bar,
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the easier it is to hop over and beat earnings expectations. is true.ide consumer discretionary scum about 10%. the s&p is in the negative. a good outperforming sector. people are a little wary. they are thinking, why would i try to go along the sector if we had such a steep hill to climb? why wouldn't i go for low hanging fruit? on the technology side, a little different circumstance. a lot to do with the weighting of the index in the s&p, your alphabets kind of taking this, one quarter of it. you are seeing there, because these companies have momentum names, do not really care about their earnings at this point. they are looking forward. they are saying, are we really going to see slower earnings growth or am i going to wave my face behind them? get a goodkind of
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feel of whether expectations make it higher, earnings, you just talked to david earlier. yes, a very important thing the denominator if those are particularly weak, even higher on the sideways market. what you see there is technology pier 1 reason we're not hedging so much, it is pretty low comparatively when you think about what technology usually comes out. you so much. that will do it for this hour of bloomberg markets. the market close is coming your way. check out the major averages. ♪
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the: u.s. stocks closing work this afternoon. s&p seeing its biggest two-day slump in all six months. joe: the question is, what you miss? alix: -- scarlet: we speak to the hsbc global head of strategy about whether the currency wars are really over. joe: plus, is now the time to invest in energy. alliancebernstein think so. first casualty from the panama papers. what is the next shoe to drop? we begin with our market minute, and you have got to look at the dow, down more than 150 points, closing around session lows right now. clearly a risk-off kind of day.

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