tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg April 6, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
we will see how dovish the yellen fed is. we go to michael mckee in washington, d.c. he will walk us through what those minutes had to say. in the drive fed to speak of the minutes, you can see the outlines of what was likely a contentious meeting that centered around the question of whether a rate increase would be advisable at their april meeting. in march because the minutes show many participants expressed a view the global economic and financial situation still posed appreciable downside risks to the domestic outlook. the u.s. economy had been globalnt amid the financial developments. the minutes show at least one other member of the committee
was willing to raise rates in march. the minutes show that some other participants indicated an increase in the target range at the committee's next meeting might be appropriate if the incoming data remains consistent with their expectations. in march, the majority was not convinced with the number of participants judging that foreign headwinds would subside only slowly and several expressing the view that raising the target range as an is april would signal a sense of urgency that they did not think was a appropriate. call, if notougher in april, in june. while members agreed that the path of rates would be lower going forward than they had anticipated in december, the committee was divided over whether the recent increasing inflation we've seen will be sustained. they are divided over whether the economy is approaching full
employment. fed's charlie evans told us this week that the markets may not be pricing in enough fed moves this year. you read the minutes today, you think you might be right. the last time the fed has been this divided over how to even project and message to the market -- a message to the market? september ofack to last year when they started talking about raising rates and did not do it, when we saw the taper tantrum when the fed suggested perhaps they were going to do something and did not. when you get to turning points, there are a lot of viewpoints thatow, it seems it's him have become more emboldened to offer their opinions. -- the fed seems more emboldened
to offer their opinions. you have the opportunity at the april and june meetings that ybe more than one person will vote for increase. what they are looking at is the impact in areas that are affected by global headwinds, primarily manufacturing. this was in the middle of march. manufacturing has slowed in the first quarter, the dollar was taking a bite out of it, as was lower for in demand. while they felt that would slowly diminish in u.s. economy had been resilient, it would still have some -- still have impact for some time to come. david: stocks here still higher after these minutes have come out. rami: it looks pretty much unchanged, seeing no change whatsoever the past be minutes after the fed minutes came out
right there. the highest it has been throughout the entire day, up 1%. the s&p still where it has been just before those meetings details were released. we are seeing the reversal of what happened the last two days of paul's, finally breaking that streak. falls, two days of breaking that streak. we saw the markets taking a leg down, but now, we are just about -- about flat, up by 6%. pretty much unchanged leading up to the 2:00 mark there. dollar, or interest rate
slide is good for the dollar, and an 18 month low. more interest rate slide is good for the dollar, at an 18 month low. we've been seeing this lower for much of the day, down .4%. year to date, it is up by about 15%. also seeing its best quarter since 1986. let's move on to oil. oil also taking a leg up, especially with what happened when we saw that stockpile fall from its highs level in the past eight decades or so. -- highest level in the past eight decades or so. the top into the bloomberg. -- let's hop into the bloomberg. april,il, looking at traders are pricing in a 0%
chance of anything happening there. it is not until december 14 when you see something over the 50% mark. david: thank you so much. more reaction and analysis of the minutes. roberto, welcome. from these notes that we received today, what is your biggest takeaway so far? roberto: the big news was that they discussed in april potential rate hike and concluded that was not appropriate. hardly anybody in the market will be surprised or shocked by this news. thes very consistent with dots and the speech that yellen gave last week. the fed wants to raise rates,
but want to do it at a very gradual pace. mike mckee, you are seeing some reaction. mike: you are seeing two-year yields rise and the dollar gets a bit stronger on the back of the headlines that have come out of these minutes. it does suggest that maybe markets will rethink the idea of how soon the fed will move. they want to raise rates and do it cautiously, the question is, what is cautiously mean? the fed may be more divided than the impression janet yellen ve ve. minoritya substantial that will not be intent to wait if the economy continues to provide the numbers we've been getting. lisa: what are you looking for to get a better sense of what the fed is looking for globally with respect to china and brazil?
what will make them comfortable to rely solely on the strength of the u.s. economy? roberto: the recent pmi data that came out in march are good and encouraging. they point to a better global picture. the fed has to look at the financial markets. if the fed moves too fast, emerging markets are exposed more than they were in the past too bad policy. there will be turmoil in and the outlook for the u.s. economy will go down. in thent to see calm market. april is probably not going to happen. david: i want to ask about the importance of unanimity there. george was the lone dissenter. how important is it for yellen
to preserve that consolidation going forward? present asants to much a united front as she can going forward. who was the other person who wanted to raise rates? would they be more willing to vote for a rate move at the april or june meetings? you don't want to get more than two. if you get three, her controll d comes under question. it is important that you bring the committee together on a viewpoint. it in marchough because there is no news conference to get through in april. it will be an interesting discussion in june. lisa: even the front end it seems to be going back to where it was before the minutes were released.
you talk about how important it is for the market to be stable for the fed to have confidence to make a move. you think the fed has successfully eliminated their role in the market by saying we are listening to you and looking internationally at the same things you are? roberto: i don't think that is the case. if you look at how much markets have moved during press conferences, they've moved four times as much as they moved under bernanke e. bernanke he did not have to raise rates, yellen does. communication has been a bit volatile. that is the price of wanting to keep the committee as much together as possible. it is good to have unanimity. the price is the story has to change in order to bring around
as many committee members as possible. the result is a volatile market and the fed has made the calculation that is a good trade-off to have. lisa: thank you so much. coming up in one hour, an exclusive interview with james bullard, president of the san luis fed. let's get to the first word news. -- president of the st. louis fed. turnout in wisconsin was better than anticipated, 47%, easily beating the 40% predicted by election officials. turnout was nearly 48% for the election in 1972.
trump at 39% in pennsylvania with ted cruz second at 30%. in third with 24%. on the democratic side, mrs. clinton leads bernie sanders 54% . a year-long is an sentence for don blake and chip for his role in the deadliest u.s. mining disaster in four decades. -- don blankenship. the blast killed 29 people. he was convicted of conspiracy to violate mine safety standards. an icon of country music is that dead. -- merle haggard's death follows a hospital about
hospitalital about julie -- bout with pneumonia. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. india has cuthead interest rates to a five-year low. will it improve the economic outlook? christopher of wells fargo joins us. york, ted cruz speaking after touring a charter school in the bronx. cruz coming up a big win in wisconsin. primary looming. ♪
lisa: the reserve bank of india cut interest rates to the lowest level in five years from 6.5% -- 6.5%..75% to let me ask you to react to what we just heard from the federal reserve here. mike mckee characterizing that meeting as likely and contentious -- lively and contentious. >> the meeting is lively and contentious when you try to maintain unanimity. have ace you pay as you wider variety of opinions you have to accommodate. we do not expect a rate hike this spring. we are only looking for when this whole year. most likely after the elections come december. more if there will be
rate hikes than expected, where will the pain be felt in the market? paul: and concerns over how those interest rates may turn into headwinds for the overall economy and for manufacturing. wrip after those minutes came out. up a bitbility ticked paul, let me ask you about the way you see the fed reconciling the global risk with what we've seen in the u.s. paul: the fed needs to see growth somewhere else in the world. isthe rest of the world still ticking lower, the fed needs to see stronger growth in the u.s. we don't see stronger growth in the u.s. feeling any sort of sorts of -- failing any sort of
source of growth -- lisa: the dollar has weakened so much, a gift to the fed. it has allowed inflation to pick up potentially, reducing the pressure on them to some degree. if it continues this way, will it force their hand to raise rates sooner and have a feedback loop? paul: i understand that is a concern. we are probably near the end of what we would think of as dollar weakness. the positioning around the dollar, those have come from tilted in favor of a strong dollar too much more neutral. the interest rate differentials probably don't have much further to fall. the further we look outcome of those interest differentials should rise a bit. dollarstill looking for
strength. david: the reserve bank of india cutting by 25 basis points. bloomberg tv talk to the governor of the reserve bank. >> every once in a while come asset prices start going back to work minmetals. -- every once in a while, asset prices start going back to fundamentals. says, no, morenk valuation -- we think this is a stable situation. india is a fast-growing economy, inflation april problem here talk about the tricking us here. iness here. decline in's some
confidence around global markets, especially emerging markets. funds have flowed out of those markets. he still has two consecutive monsoons that have pushed up food prices. finally, he has some domestic problems like very important nonperforming assets at banks. the banks are finally starting to recognize those nonperforming loans. they have another europe nonperforming loan recognition and a knowledge meant to deal acknowledgment to deal with. tos cut interest rates a bit help the problem along, but much of it is out of his control. lisa: you were talking about the debt in india. government bonds have gained more than 3% this year. debt has donets quite well this year.
you think investors are not considering adequately the risks that are still there? has been a relief rally in government debt, especially local currency. i'm at you are talking about local currency. that gain would be probably based on the recovery of this currencies against the dollar. the currency move in the credit move are characterized as relief rallies. their domestic debt issues in china, brazil and russia have to be dealt with. they cannot be dealt with effectively in any short-term period. you said india can be instructive to investors. spell it out for us. paul: india has such favorable demographics going forward. one in three people in the workforce next 20 years will be an indian resident.
that is a powerful potential source of growth. online payment systems have done a remarkable job in bringing spending access and consumption to ordinary indians in cities that don't have credit cards. eventually to indians in the rural areas. you have serious problems they --e to deal with an interim in the interim. as interesttal finally, there's the internal problems of what some of the people i talk to in india called problems of execution. don't need new reform laws, but need better and more efficient ways to implement those laws. david: that's paul christopher from wells fargo investment institute. still ahead, more "bloomberg
david: this is "bloomberg markets." i: first, to motorbikes, 7%, itsavidson down by biggest fall in more than five months. not one, but two analysts said the motorcycle maker may have lost market share because of its most recent quarter. retailearch says u.s. sales may have fallen by about 7%. longbow research is pointing to an indian brand, polaris industries. havere good quarter make
-- their good quarter make have harley's quarter. disappointing guidance weighing on casino stocks. out of las vegas, revenues are expected to be flat. the homemaker seeing its biggest jump in about a month come up by nearly 2.5% here. barclays upgraded the stock to equal weight from underweight. recent underperformance from shares is a recent that's a reason to buy. david: oil having its best day in three weeks. ♪
thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish.
thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. youto get the help you'refar looking for. that's why at xfinity we're opening up more stores closer to you. where you can use all of our latest products and technology. and find out how to get the most out of your service. so when you get home, all you have to do is enjoy it. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. david: this is "bloomberg markets." lisa: let's get a check of the bloomberg first word news this hour.
mark: hillary clinton has unleashed a new round of attacks against rival bernie sanders after a string of primary defeats come including last night in wisconsin. mrs. clinton is questioning senator sanders on his truthfulness, readiness and ties to the democratic party. top campaign advisers to john kasich plan to meet with gop activists in washington. the only contest the ohio governor has won so far was in his home state. homeland security secretary j johnson countered recent calls for surveyed american muslims. bridges of dialogue need to be american muslim
communities are as diverse as christianity and aren't driven into the shadows. >> efforts to vilify and isolate torican muslims are counter our homeland security interests and counter to our national security interests given the nature of the global terrorist threat. mark: he praised congress for providing $10 million in this year's budget to home and security. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. david: commodity markets closing in new york. let's look at the day's biggest movers, starting with gold. minutes from the federal reserve showing that policymakers
debated an interest rate hike in april. bestrude reporting its $37.33 aeeks, around barrel. a chart showing the correlation between price of west texas intermediate crude and energy stocks here. wti in the white. -- blue, the world index world energy index. 838.v they are trading derivatives, namely energy futures. there's been a host of new rules aimed at making these safer.
welcome, craig peered is the financial system more fragile? craig: i don't think it's more fragile, but the fragility has been transferred. we've gone through a lot of regulations -- they've relocated the fragility. post: when you look at regulation hast caused the most change? craig: that the mandates for derivatives have been the biggest in terms of compliance burden on market participants and implications for stomach risk.
risk. systemic lisa: the biggest exchange transaction in europe, they are arguing against having a too big to fail moniker. you think the combined entity uld be too big to fail? craig: the individual entities are too big to fail, so the combined entity would be too big to fail. lisa: there was a story today about how the committee came out and proposed a way for banks to atone for derivatives. require them to hold less capital against their derivative partly because of what they have to post with the clearinghouses. do you think in general there is enough collaborative -- enough collateral being posted? craig: collateral is exactly the way risk has been transferred. it has made it derivatives transactions and safer, but
other bank activities less safe. the other important thing about collateral, during times of a crisis, there will be huge margin costs. that will put tremendous liquidity strains on the system. that makesis a way some transactions and safer and other transactions less safe. on that, it is hard to say whether we've improved things or not. lisa: which transactions have become less safe? craig: what collateral and other does --t clearings somebody else gets moved back in line. it could be that those are systemically important entities as well. the main effect here is to redistribute risk, not necessarily to reduce it. david: on the process of room , theng -- rule writing
committee saying it is carefully considering what the industry has to say. when i was in washington after dodd frank was passed, how long the lines seemed to be in terms of all the comments that were made, all the letters the regulators had to get through, talk about the speed of this process and whether that matches up the need for to go faster. craig: it has gone relatively slowly. we are leaders in the race compared to europe where they are much further behind. this is one of the key issues. this is incredibly complicated and complex. -- you trychoice of to get the regulations in place quickly and may be doing it badly. i would prefer that the process be more careful and thorough. you sympathetic with those who argue the u.s. government is outmanned here, unable to get through this at a reasonable speed? craig: that is definitely true. that is one of the inherent
perils of regulation. of government in terms manpower and intellectual horsepower is likely to be overmatched, particularly up against the banks. lisa: you say that risk has been transferred. what is the worst-case scenario where you could see this transfer of risk spurring another systemic crisis? i lived it during the crash of 1987 when i nearly saw clearinghouse fail. when you have a big market move, requires big margin payments, people have to come up with cash in a hurry and it is likely to happen right of the time when liquidity is drying up. that is the kind of problem that can lead to a big systemic crisis. alan greenspan was relatively recently installed as the head of the fed to come in or been to provide liquidity to the market.
that will be necessary in the future. lisa: you think the financial system is at all safer leading into the 2000 and crash -- 2008 crash? a safer. is increasing capital is making assistance safer. the clearing mandate itself has not made it safer. lisa: still ahead, surveymonkey has taken a leading role in pulling this election. we speak with the ceo. david: we will have my interview in 10he nato general minutes. ♪
david: this is "bloomberg surveymonkey is branching out beyond its core business of online service with appw product offering analytics. emily chang is standing by in san francisco with the ceo of surveymonkey, zander lurie. emily: great to have you here on the show. this takes surveymonkey in a new direction, of business. how much will it at the bottom -- new line of business. how much will it affect the bottom line?
providing ane analytic tool for companies to learn more about their products and how they fare against their competitors. we are all about the feedback gathering process. uber versus lift, facebook versus twitter. how accurate is the data? zander: it depends on how you are performing. .e have a large mobile panel it looks like how we are doing election tracking. importante to predict characteristics, not only for your product, but this lets you measure the success of your yourct vis-a-vis competitors. the functionality that drives certain growth or certain declines, you can start to analyze and survey your users
and find out what is working and what is not and make changes on the fly. emily: you guys have been doing a lot of polling during the selection. -- this election. the data is changing all the time. what are the most surprising trends? zander: when i was growing up, your parents would get calls -- thishe dinner changes the landscape of how we are pulling for elections. vis-a-vis the size and scale of our platforms -- we are the largest survey are in the world -- we are able to use our inventory to ask you what is going on with elections, what are you thinking? the data is changing very rapidly. we think trump still has a significant lead. his campaign has been handicapped a bit by his statements.
emily: will it be trump-clinton? zander: clinton lost eight of the nine last contests. it is unlikely for sanders to overtake her in the delegate count. this will be a historic gender gap? that would probably lead to play clinton victory. emily: you are taking the place of surveymonkey ceo dave goldberg. youas been a hard year for guys. how are you planning to carry on his legacy and make your own stamp on the company? zander: surveymonkey has been an amazing company since being founded 17 years ago. when dave bought the company, he brought so much experience and talent and his network to bear to help surveymonkey grow. he's saw grow from $25 million
in revenue to over $200 million in revenue. all over theis company, his integrity, his empathy, his love for people and data. i would say there is a strong ---in from the employee base in 2015, we did have a challenging year. his death was a dramatic -- traumatic moment. he would be dismayed if we do not carry his legacy on to build the best business we can. we are excited about the health of the brand and the profitable nature of what we are building, moving into adjacent markets. emily: he was also a dear friend of our show. he talked about an ipo publicly. what are your plans for an exit?
what is next? zander: the company will generate more profit this year than we've ever done in history. we have exciting russian -- exciting growth initiatives. these are rocky times new capital markets come on we don't spend a lot of time thinking about valuations. we are laser focused on delivering for customers. i'm confident we will build a business that is durable and can grow for many years to come. i think we are tracking towards an ipo. we have the scale and profitability to go public want to make sure we do that on our -- i want to make sure we are well poised to go out until investors this is what we are going to do and then be able to do it. emily: surveymonkey ceo zander lurie. with: emily chang there
survey monkey seo zander lurie -- surveymonkey ceo zander lurie . rami: looking at a couple of big movers and lighting and buying. prettyght now is much a scraping the bottom of the barrel all day today, down by 15%. the biggest fl since october of 2014. it had been down as much as 18% earlier in the day. quarter revenue guidance is down to $367 million because of weaker sales from its lighting products segment. the ceo is optimistic come earlier today saying we've addressed the root causes of our business challenges. ating, you might know tinder and okcupid, what about momo out of china?
lisa: this is "bloomberg markets ." david: time for the bloomberg business flash. they valued at the second-largest u.s. stock exchange operator at $1.8 billion, more than twice the expected valuation. lisa: fiat chrysler eliminating 1300 workers at a factory in michigan. midsize sedans. the furloughs will begin in july. david: brief family owned franchise dealers have filed a class-action lawsuit against -- three family owned franchise dealers have filed a class-action lawsuit against volkswagen.
businessour bloomberg flash update. it has been two weeks since the attacks in brussels. nato is urging its member states to take a larger role in fighting terror. i spoke with nato security general jens stoltenberg. jens: our alleys continue to step up their efforts to fight terrorism in different ways. we are supporting the efforts of the us-led coalition fighting isil. we're focused on how we can enable forces in the region to fightsisl themselves -- isil themselves. we are enabling them to step up their efforts. david: how about on the continent and self come in -- continent itself come
europe? is all about collecting intelligence. we have increased our capabilities when it comes to intelligence. sharing intelligence and looking at how w can do that -- how we can do that in a more efficient way. it is a combination of military intelligence and civilian intelligence and border control and civilian intelligence is not weo's responsibility, but are working closely with nato allies and urging them to improve the way they are sharing civilian intelligence. david: let me ask you about the refugee crisis, one that has grown to enormous scale here. what role do you see nato and there? nato playing
jens: we are stepping up our efforts to assist the european union and our nato allies to handle the refugee crisis. it is the biggest human tragedy in europe since the second world war. to the agployed ships and see, they're providing surveillance, monitoring the situation and chairing this information with the greek coast guard, toca's -- turkish coast guard. toy use this information manage the situation and we have seen the number of refugees -- aing the ag and see sea. respondert the first
when it comes to managing the refugee crisis in europe. it is partly a new role. greecelies, turkey and , we tried to help as much as we can. that is why we quickly decided to play ships. -- deeply ships -- the play deploy ships. david: my interview with nato secretary-general jens stoltenberg. the fed minutes debated and april interest rate -- an april interest rate hike. michael mckee calling it a lively and contentious meeting. ina: today, i found action bonds really interesting.
this is the general obligation bonds, prices here the lowest ever. puerto rican officials passed legislation allowing them to defer payments on this untilular bond is will -- january. the grease of north america. ce of north america. congressmbers of trying to draw up a plan for what to do there with the commonwealth. kathleen hays as an exclusive interview with jim bullard on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, good afternoon, everybody. here is what we are watching at this hour. fed minutes show for going and notl interest rate hike was a unanimous decision. we will hear from james bullard in a few minutes for an exclusive interview on the fed rate hike timeline and the state of the u.s. economy. and could apple shares be worth double their current valuation? we speak to the analyst who made that call. with a just one hour away from the close of trading on this wednesday. remy: i'm looking at the graphs right now.