Skip to main content

tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  April 7, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EDT

2:30 am
thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. welcome to on the move. 7:30 in london. we are counting you down to the european open. i'm guy johnson alongside hans nichols. he is in germany. to too many weird the fed might be getting more dovish. jamie dimon is still worried it might -- to quickly. the land of the rising yen. japanese currencies rallied to the highest level against the dollar in 17 months. is the boj powerless before the -- rejected a
2:31 am
treaty between the eu and ukraine by a margin of 221. how will u.k. politicians be up to make their case on brexit? two big stories ticking around. i like the dimon line on this. is to too many? we are about to hear from peter pratt as well. i also like this exit story related to what happened in the netherlands. protest votes or something more significant? that is my question. hans: it is difficult to see whether there is a direct correlation between a process vote in the netherlands and a clear in her outvote in the u.k. one note on the jamie dimon letter, 50 pages. couldn't he have waited for hours to incorporate the latest fed minutes? i would've asked for an extension. whoever grated the paper, he should've asked for a to our extension. that's whoever graded that paper
2:32 am
-- whoever graded that paper, he should've asked for a 24-hour extension. i trust the fed on that. i think that data is safe here safe. maybe he edited. maybe could've edited the last minute. you think at his bit for spelling -- who you think he added -- who you think at its it for spelling? abhishek: -- guy: your point is well made it this is a fairly fast-moving story. he will be right in a weeks time or he will be wrong. let's face it, the story is moving quickly when it comes to the central bank. we got this ecb conference that is taking place. we will watch out for those comments.
2:33 am
where a half hour away from the european open. let's get updated on where we stand. i taken to the bloomberg to the fair valley calculation. the story looks fairly politics that's fairly positive. we have seen a rally and that has provided some impetus to the european stocks. ats: let's take a look dollar yen. euro-dollar also showing some real strength in the euro at 1:14 -- 1.14. we have yen ci training up. crude up a percentage point. 38.11. let's get first word with come with the ramanathan. kumutha: dutch voters have rejected a treaty between the european union and ukraine by a margin of nearly two to one, the results of the referendum have exposed the extent of anti-eu sentiment in one of the blocks founding members. meanwhile, if britain decides to
2:34 am
leave the european union, the outcomes are large and potentially unknown. that is according to jpmorgan to annualie dimon in his letter to shareholders, he says even in the best case scenario, there would be years of uncertainty which would hurt the economy of both the u.k. and eu. a brazilian congressional report has recommended that impeachment againstngs between -- the president moves forward. she pleased that she used illegal financing. the charges are baseless and her supporters called the campaign .gainst her and attempted coup john kerry has set a record become the most traveled secretary of state in history. his trip to bahrain takes a total mileage to 1.0 6 million. million, 1000 more than condoleezza rice. kerry shows no signs of letting
2:35 am
up and will be in japan later this week. one record still eludes him. hillary clinton visited 112 countries. kerry has only managed 81. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . guy. guy: the minutes from the fed meeting show several officials thought a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent. this as hiking rates as soon as april could signal a sense of urgency they do not find appropriate. .he odds not topping 50% speaking exclusively to bloomberg, james bullard says he is worried about the disconnect between the markets and changing fed expectations. >> there has been a long time disconnect and i have been that gets reconciled in
2:36 am
some kind of violent way and there is a lot of turmoil caused in markets because of changing expectations. what the fed is going to do. the committee gives its best's -- best assessment of what it thinks is going to happen. guestet's bring in our julian killingsworth. morning. guy: is to bullard is saying we could see turmoil appearing when the markets wake up to the fact that the fed is more aggressive. that is great except the market was pressing zero chance. maybe we will see that become even further lower. julian: the markets for the whole of 2016 are suggesting on
2:37 am
-- to rate rises. that is where we are now. -- two rate rises. that is where we are now. it reflect what we are seeing in choppy markets. probably slower growth than some had expected when we started the year. more of the same to come. cautious -- caution is arrived. guy: you prefer u.s. stocks. how critical the fact that the fed is going to remain dovish then maybe we thought six months ago to your thesis as to why you should belong to that market? julian: why would like the stoxx u.s. has great investments from the bottom-up point of view you to more importantly, it is an economy that is still moving forward good in the last few weeks, we have seen a lot of traction being gained by pmi numbers coming through. consumer being in better health
2:38 am
than some had predicted earlier. overall, not saying it is boomtime, but perhaps the u.s. economy is in a better state. guy: making some points about your. hans, what is he saying? hans: the ecb policy has been affected. his comment coming in a speech in frankfurt. he is saying every turn to structural growth can't depend on monetary policy and he says they would need to take into account some side effects. he says measures could be recalibrated. conditional -- if news socks come. easy be prepared to do more if additional socks come. julian i want to give your -- i want to get your take on this. ecb policy package since 2014 has been effective. mr. chillingworth, do you agree? julian: in part.
2:39 am
think, he has sold a great story and it hasn't always been quite as promised. he has kept the markets firmly on the hook. they believe in him. that is been helpful in securing the stability that is achieved in a very difficult time for the ecb. guy: very hard to argue in terms of success. at least you can argue that a year ago now deflation. even worse. my case is really around whether or not europe will in -- europe will raise an investment story. it is difficult if you're sitting anywhere else in the world to look at europe and see the news spelling out at the moment. there is a little noise out at the moment. underneath that, is an economy that is slowly improving. it is making a more compelling case that -- compelling case
2:40 am
then you are making a point for. julian: it is not one economy so consequently we do like the story. scandinavia, germany is still interesting. if you draw down into some of the mid-cap areas, there is some value to be found. i still remain quite cautious about southern europe. i think recovery will be slow. the domestic names in that market, quite a long haul. constantly, northern europe, yes. southern europe, no. has: one more breaking saying cpihe is would've been negative had it in 2015.for ecb policy that is good afraid listing -- that is peter frank listening to our show. i am going to use it for an argument on why we have been affected. why we haven't gone negative in
2:41 am
terms of cpi. guy: he is saying inflation is still weak because of new socks that have hit. an interesting line as well. that is in his mind these new socks and i expect exit. julian is going to stay with us. plenty more still coming up with julian killingsworth. later, do not miss another historic central-bank gathering. it is a gathering of a fed chair that's gathering of the fed chair. -- gathering of the fed chair. janet yellen, alan greenspan, paul volcker all appearing together in conversation. this is the first time this has ever happened. up next, ceo of the bank of -- up his ♪
2:42 am
2:43 am
2:44 am
2:45 am
hans: welcome back to on the move. let's get to bloomberg's first word news with kumutha ramanathan. kumutha: thank you, hans. shares have dipped despite better-than-expected first quarter profits. the early release of the galaxy s seven gave it a head start on apple and chinese rivals. $5.7 billion. estimated sales of the s seven line hit 9 million units, triple those of the s6 in the same period last year. -- documentedg business as a part of a plan to divest more than $6 billion in assets, that is according to people with knowledge. pushese comes as dell ahead with the largest technology takeover ever. three former nomura traders have been accused in the u.s. of increasing the spread on a trade and generating $7 million in line onal revenue by
2:46 am
how much they pay for debt. they pleaded not guilty in a scheduled to go to trial in october. ceo plans to step down according to the nikkei. earlier directors voted down proposed changes to the company's core 711 convenience store units. nepotismwarned against by letting suzuki line-up his son as a successor. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy. guy: thank you very much. let's talk banking did the bank of cyprus is pursuing a premium spot on the london stock exchange. chillingworth still with us here in london did that morning. -- london.
2:47 am
good morning. my question is are you ready yet go a little bit of evidence as to whether this is the right time. the press to book on the back of cyprus, 4.5. you are priced in the recovery story. you are priced as a stock that has problems and issues with mpl's. on the big step up stage in london the right thing to do right now echo >> -- now? the german banking sector is priced at the same. what we have been talking about finding liquidity in valley discovery for our stock for more than year, we have made it clear that the exchange in the cyprus look just cyprus exchange liquidity -- when we need to do is find more long-term investors that we need to find greater liquidity. we need to be of a to long-term investors.
2:48 am
they find themselves in deep liquid white markets. either the u.s. or london are the markets. we decided london. hans: john, does a london listing help your current shareholders get out of the stock easier? john: the volumes on the apple exchange are still known. any action that occurs in size takes many days to execute it that is not good for the stock or investor sentiment. it makes it a difficult stock to trade. what we have to do is create maximum conditions for investors to understand the stock, to and to be a to invest in and out of the stock when necessary. as we think this is good for the bank, this is another step in our recovery. the recovery is slow but we have to put all of the conditions in place to normalize them. guy: were you under pressure from wilbur roth. john: wilbur
2:49 am
push you and everything. we welcome that. -- wilbur pushes you and everything. we welcome that. all of our board -- all i board is saying -- all our board is saying we need to be a to tell our story to a wider audience. we need to know a stock with -- once weof equity get past the restructuring phase, we need to have it socialize the story on the wider investment states. >> you've got some insider from the german banking sector. you think you are in better shape than your former employer? your bankd invest rather than the german banks, are you a better investment case? jonathan: i am not here to talk about deutsche bank.
2:50 am
our stock is a value play. we can describe to you why this is a company worth investing in people with taken all the steps faster than i said we would take them. we believe the story still holds. >> you think you are a book value bank, when? john: that would be for the market to decide. we need to create a return on equity against well-managed risk and well covered risk on the balance sheet. we've done away with all of the overseas -- we have repaid emergency funding to the european central bank. we've got deposits growing. we can see the margins have held up for the last two years. they will come under pressure with the environment we find ourselves in. we are capable of producing a rough it in a highly competitive position -- producing a profit in a highly competitive position.
2:51 am
you mentioned the local play. you got this new acid unit. are you guys going to become the biggest property owner in cyprus? revelatoryve a that the in the way galatians surrounds the bank. we hope to be a force for change in ownership by being able to create velocity into smarter .ays into owning assets debtor's that are having trouble to investors who want to own yielding assets. an example of that is we have real estate working on creating reached. thehould be up to create transfer of ownership and a market like cyprus without flooding the markets. we got to be smart. -- we have got to be smart about it. we will be active in the markets.
2:52 am
i want to be sophisticated and smart. guy: julian, let me bring you into the conversation. we will see when that happens. you talked about your concerns about southern europe and that it is going be a long hard grind. he is trying to get investors interested in the bank. you interested? what do you think the message from london is likely to be? julian: it is not a story i know well. i think in more general terms about banking sector, what i would say is what investors want from a bank is predictability. they also want consistency of return over the medium-term. i think currently the investment community are much more inclined to look to retail banking because of all of the problems we have discussed in the past. forstment banks are in
2:53 am
continued volatile earnings over a number of years. predict ability from retail banking is good. also perhaps, something i've talked about is the retail banking sector will be viewed much more as a utility sector. predictable yields, printable returns. share.ith a 40% market we have a purpose -- we have a 40% market share. we have a purpose. we do not have any cooperative investment banking which was my prior hunting ground. what investors would like to see but we have to do -- but what we have to do is to prove the equity is valued. >> we are back talking about greece again. if there is a greece crisis again, how does that ripple back to the bank?
2:54 am
john: we have some good exposure and greece on the leftovers from our exit from there. we don't have a capital issue with greece if it were more trouble than it is today. guy: do you expect more regulatory oversight? -- banks are going to be what a look at the revelatory story. just another headache? john: we have to welcome inflation regulation story. we focus clearly on the u.s. patriot act as our standard. we are not associated with the penama paper spirit we have to get past this. we have to lecture we are operating our begging system to the high standards. -- our banking system to the high standards. >> yet to rely on ecb for emergency funding. how does the easy plan to use
2:55 am
lending outo push a into the real economy affect your bank? is it a good idea? john: it is a good idea generally to have access to inexpensive funding to see if we can have a transition. they are not working effectively. getting below net zero, we can't -- and a banking system. you impact margins therefore the invest ability of the bank sector. it is the unintended consequences of negative interest rates that is something we have to be cautious of. morelook for to hearing about the plan. john hurricane, the bank of cyprus ceo. we are now four minutes away
2:56 am
from the european equity market open. it looks like we are going to see a positive open. we will take you to that open next. ♪
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
guy: good morning. you are watching "on the move." i am alongside hans nichols, who is in berlin. what is on deck this morning? hans: it looks like futures are basically positive this morning and we want to look at the fed's rate. the fed may be getting more dovish, but jpmorgan is still worried it might still plate and too -- it might still tighten too quickly. japanese currency rallies to its highest level against the dollar in several months. a fresh blood to unity in europe as voters reject a treaty by a margin of nearly two to one.
3:00 am
how u.k. politicians make their case on the brexit with this vote. fair market value is moving in the positive direction. let's get to caroline hyde at the touch screen. caroline: we could see another day of gains in europe. is it the fact that the dovish fed remains in place? we seem to see we are in no real crush to see too many rate hikes. the market believes we will see a 50% probability of a rate hike in december. a 0% chance seems to be coming month. next the ftse 100 is up .1%. 40 is on the upside. the miners are pushing. once again, feeling this urge to push higher. oil and the commodities sector are dictating this at the
3:01 am
moment. we are on the higher side for european trading. and a higher side with the euro pushing up .4%. the dollar is down at the moment as we see that dovish tone come in from the fed's minutes, published yesterday. the dollar goeses lower. remember, we get ecb minutes today as well. when will that corporate bond buying start? we're looking at the euro, up .4%. we have not seen the euro this a pound all thehe way back to june of 2014. the concern of the brexit, what does that post to the british economy? as well as the eurozone. oil is up .7%. we see continuing high marks.
3:02 am
once again, there seems to be hoped that the supply glut could be removing as u.s. ventures came down yesterday. wti popped 5% yesterday alone. we only saw mmf on the high side, up 3%. a 2.7% general decline in general merchandise. we have a flat sales. but the new chief executive is trying to bode well when it comes to general merchandise. the gross margin is improving. wirecard, up 1.8%. year profits are growing. but analysts say there is more transparency going forward, in terms of recent acquisitions and in terms of the operating cash flow. and berkeley group, up by 1%. we have a great story on bloomberg today, all about luxury homes. the developer in central london,
3:03 am
if you want to be selling in bulk at the moment, you have to think about a 20% discount. this is as higher taxes cut in and lower commodity prices take effect on international investors. guy: we will talk about housing later in the program. perfect segue into that story. i think it probably looks a little bit bigger on the session chart than it is in reality. it does not seem to be a story as well in some of the other crosses. so, maybe it is more localized from position taking there. that is the three-day chart. we are getting up to some highs, but nevertheless, we have seen moves over the last few days. i want to show you the rotation that we are saying at the moment, where the market is this morning related to the stock market. energy is a big gainer. we are getting ready for that meeting. the oil story yesterday, that factors in the safer end of
3:04 am
the market. utilities are being sold at the moment and financials are in the red as well. that rotation story is happening here. officer isnvestment turning us now. when you look at the market, o not on an index level, but on a sector level, how do you play the story? that is where we can see all of the volatility and the movement. that is where you will make your money. >> the is a good point, between volatility and making money, it is pretty key as well. we have seen a lot volatility around this trade between momentum and value. and so, we have seen over the first quarter, a big a switch out of the momentum space into the resources and some of the oil companies. now, obviously they wre ere
3:05 am
value, of reasonable but are they of good long-term value? we are looking much more long-term and we are looking for those companies that are compounder's overtime, with good cash flow and unfortunately, not in the area where the market is performing in the value terms. hans: if i could jump in from berlin. we have breaking news. the eu is facing a number of challenges simultaneously. manyrobably will not get arguments on that statement, but he also says the ecb will do whatever it takes to pursue price stability. that what point do you stop -- at what point do you stop believing european central bankers? we have this massive amounts of challenges happening simultaneously. at the same time, they are saying, we will do what ever it takes to achieve this. do they have a credibility gap
3:06 am
for you? >> i would not say a total credibility gap, but the longer we come out with statements that we will do whatever it takes, is bound to cause some alarm and investor's minds. people will worry that the ecb, or whatever central bank it is, isn't being completely straight, which is no great surprise, with investors. there is more hidden, shall we say, scares to come. i think in some respects, it will be better to markets takelet their course to a degree, rather than trying to micromanage them from a central bank's point of view. as an investor i with a regular, sensible updates are worthwhile, but not too much press coverage. euro is up to a six-month high, compared to the dollar.
3:07 am
the fed continues to be more dovish than anticipated. this is the chart here. how much of this is going to be a problem for european companies, even big european companies who have the ability to hedge? how much of this is going to be a factor in the investment pieces as we work our way forward? the currency strengthening is another reason not to invest in europe. >> it is not helpful on that is the bottom line. if you are a modern european export in company and you are faced with probably, higher euro and you know, lower demand coming out of asia, you need all the help you can get. guy: what does the euro needt to be at? have we had parity? how would that change the investment case? >> i think the wider point -- the currency is a reflection of people's views on the short-term move in.
3:08 am
the currency is obviously helpful. what does europe need? and needs a fully functional banking system that is not one people worried about. it is greater consumer confidence and you have the and parts of europe, not across the whole of europe. it probably needs one physical system as well. -- one fiscal system as well. more aboutl talk that in the moment. that is a long shopping list, and a difficult one as well. viewse dimon shares his -- up next, jamie dimon shares his views on the prospect of britain quitting the eu. will this be good or bad for business? find out, next. ♪
3:09 am
3:10 am
3:11 am
hans: voters have rejected a treaty between the ukraine and the european union. one of the founding members thanks the result would make the netherlands the only eu member not to ratify the treaty. >> this is an important political fact. the ratification cannot proceed as was expected before. so, we have to take the step-by-step approach. i was in the cabinet with the parliament, with our european partners, also with ukraine to see what consequences of this decision might be.
3:12 am
hans: our government reporter joins us now. karina, i am forever indebted to you for teaching me how to pronounce mr. does ihis name. but more importantly, what does this mean fo? >> this is a blow for the cabinet. they have already said they wanted a vote in favor of the referendum. they campaign for in favor and it turned out to be "no." it is a big blow for the cabinet because there is a rotating presidency at the moment, which ends at the end of this month, just after the u.k. will vote in the referendum on the brexit. guy: the brexit story is
3:13 am
interesting. we are trying to figure out whether this is a dutch related ,rocess or a shout at the eu or whether we can read it into the brexit story. if we can, the numbers for those who want to remain in our quite frightening. -- remain in are quite frightening. >> it is a clear "no" with 32% turnout, but nevertheless, the people who showed up -- more than 60% said no to a treaty between the eu and ukraine. a treaty with ukraine is more than just a vote against european integration. it was also said that during the campaigning that this treaty ford be seen as a start ukraine to start negotiations also to join the eu. that was mainly the reason why
3:14 am
people said, no, we don't want this treaty because we don't want more europe. we don't want europe to grow further. guy: we will leave it there. thank you very much indeed. i don't want to draw lines between one thing and another because it is dangerous to do so, but it was interesting when we had the attacks and belgium, what happened with the pound. i am not going to ascribe any kind of validity to this, but maybe this move we're seeing this morning is actually a relationship to what we can see in the netherlands. jpmorgan's chief executive jamie dimon has included a possible brexit in his annual letters. caroline hyde is here with more. what is his take on the brexit, caroline? caroline: you have to dig in through 60 pages of his annual letter, but he really does have
3:15 am
a warnings about brexit that really caught my eye. significantly, he is saying in the best case scenario jamie dimon is currently saying that you will have to renegotiate hundreds of trade agreements between the eu and other countries. and in this time frame, we will have months, they say years of uncertainty and this uncertainty will hurt the economies of both britain and the european union. that is the best case scenario and the worst case scenario he is warning a exit would trigger trade retaliation, hurting both sides. clearly, this could even force the european union to break apart. that is making the leap that the brexit is a significantly bad thing for the european union as well. notes about the u.s. politics at the moment. he is trying to fire a warning shot, warning about whether the break apart is going to cause a
3:16 am
fill in banks. he also warns about u.s. treasury yields rising and that we will see less buyers with the u.s. treasury as we see an improvement with the u.s. economy. he warns that the fed and commercial banks will be buying less and therefore, treasury yields will grow faster than anticipated. in the best case scenario, he things we will see hurting of the british economy and the eurozone and ears of uncertainty, guy. guy: we vote to stay in, and i think this goes away quite quickly. it is unquantifiable at this stage. jamie dimon is certainly paying attention. european banks might have to replace the 108 billion euros in securities. this will require some assets to originate from the numbers. how will mario draghi react?
3:17 am
how are you positioning your portfolio right now in advance of the june vote? >> i think we have always thought that the activity will take mainly place around sterling and obviously pple has a large percentage of investments outside of the u.k. and companies that generate a lot of revenue outside of the u.k., particularly some of the large names. guy: that is a natural hedge built in. hedge builttural in. there will be a lot of volatility around the currency. and so, for equities, it will be less of an issue, but will probably be an area where investors will concentrate less. guy: i want to show you this
3:18 am
chart. hans is going to jump in. the: you mentioned some of clearing functions and i get that would take place if there was an exit and the u.k. did leave the eu. you said most of your focus is around sterling, but there is any sense that some of these clearing functions are already switching from london to say, frankfurt? >> not as such, no. obviously, it is very interesting that we have got the proposed stock change and the merger, which you may have been thinking about. but what i would suggest to you is that most of the major players are waiting and obviously, the current view is but we will stay in, the polls may well narrow. the moment, i think the banks will have a plan b and that is
3:19 am
what jamie dimon was hinting at as well. but i don't think we have seen any dramatic moves of people fiercely considering in london. guy: i can't find it, but i will in a momentit out and yesterday we were talking a lot about this. what is happening at the moment with you can stocks is fascinating. the are trading at their biggest valuation premium. is that rational to you? we are watching u.k. stocks and some ways benefit from the cheap pound. maybe the minors and the high propensity -- for them to affect the markets and the waiting is fairly high, they have come quite strongly. is it logical to you that european stocks are trading at a premium? >> again, we were talking about sectors earlier and i think you have to break it down because at the end of the day, yes we have seen a bit of a rally. london has much more exposure to energy and resources. and likewise, i would say to you
3:20 am
that the domestic u.k. is functioning pretty well. confidence is good. day, ithe end of the would say the u.k. economy is functioning pretty well. guy: u.k. stocks are the most expensive relative to the stocks 2005.dre sincxx 600 since >> you need to break it down. an index can be misleading. hans: we had borne is out of japan. the cabinet secretary is watching markets with vigilance. when you look at the gauge of play, how concerned are you about the yen's strength and if you are not concerned, at what level do you can concern for global equities? >> i think a very strong yen is not good news. i would say to you that overall,
3:21 am
hans, what we are watching even more closely is the dollar. the dollar exchange rate against the asian market. and obviously, a weaker dollar against that basket is good news for asian growth. and so consequently, i would say to you that perhaps, the yen, yes is important, but the dollar is more important. guy: on that note, we will leave it. thank you for sharing your time with as well stop next, a most skeptical rally. we look at the lurking trillion dollars stocks in our chart of the hour, next. ♪
3:22 am
3:23 am
3:24 am
guy: welcome back. ."u are watching "on the move i will show you what is going on around europe as we are 24 minutes into the session. by .2%. stocks is up the ftse is a performing this morning and that is because the minors are on the front foot. the minors and the cyclicals are trading higher. i want to show you what is happening with the london story. is a great way of looking at it and it gives you a list of how many stocks are moving on the ftse 100.
3:25 am
lloyds, pearson, a number of the stocks are moving today. the makeup of the ftse, that is why you are saying some of the losses this morning. him introduce our chart of the hour with nejra cehic. i will put it up on bloomberg here. market -- investors are pretty short right now. nejra: we have seen $2 trillion restored to the u.s. market over the last six months, but skepticism is ripe. investors have become more impassioned with the rally. interest is at a eight year high. we can see short interest with the s&p 500. this began in august when there's investors set bets ofinst u.s. stocks above 4% available shares for the first time in six years and i have not backed off since. with levels8 highs, of 4.3%. you can see the end of the white line there and that is
3:26 am
equivalent to a position of just under $1 trillion. we can see a contrarian bullish signal setting up a powerful rally. the rationale is everybody is selling into stocks are already low. guy: they can be pushed much higher. hans? statementought guy's was in fact a question expressing doubt. i should never assume any sort of question guy makes has an upturn at the end because he is never doubtful. he is always full of confidence. my question is, can we act on this or is it too speculative? nejra: there are some who say that the market needs to be triggered by an event to rally. the s&p 500 is pretty much unchanged. over the last year, we are looking at it down ever so slightly, but the big rally has been since august, when it has
3:27 am
been up more than 10%. analysts for saying if sentiments turned negative, you can see an easier ability to surprise the market on the upside. hans: up next, we have more on brexit fears and the letter london property market. ♪
3:28 am
3:29 am
3:30 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching "on the move." we are 30 minutes into the trading day. the equity front is moving a little bit right now. by 6%.e 100 ais up stoxx 600 is up by 4%. the oil story is also front and center. let's deal with some of the stock stories with caroline hyde. caroline: we have had the single biggest junk bond of the year. hi.trick drara
3:31 am
the french telecom company is catching in. we have seen a real sell off in junk bonds. $5.2 billion is how much they raised in u.s. denominated junk bonds. romy almost doubled for the original operant because demand was so high. they are paying down on other bonds and loans. in the past, numericable has used debts to be able to afford share buybacks and dividends. this is one of the top performers on the stocxx 600. there.ting trends worldplay on the downside, down by 2.5%.
3:32 am
global is the joint venture they own. they are cashing into the tune of 740 million pounds. we can see a bit of a downward trend as the payments company does this. i leave you with a company, which i know you will be talking about in a moment, berkeley group. that is down by 1.8%. why? there is a great story on bloomberg today talking about how much of a discount we are having to see put on bulk purchases of luxury apartments in the united kingdom. concerns that there could be some sort of distress to come in the high and prime central london luxury market. why? higher taxes and fewer international buyers. guy: perfect timing, caroline, as ever. we getting to the u.k. halifax numbers on the housing story. we get a rise of 10.1%.
3:33 am
the march rise on 2.6% on the month, this according to halifax. let's get more on the housing story in the u.k. with charlie campbell. good morning. a hold. is sells on the list as well. those numbers on the halifax sound fairly buoyant. >> the halifax numbers are strong and you expect march to be strong because of activity. you a next ofsts the present. >> there is a next her rush to get that done ahead of the april closing date. -- a rush to get that done ahead of the april closing date.
3:34 am
it is indicative of what is going out there. london is worse than the rest of the u.k. i do have a few negative recommendations in the sector. more of what is going to come, than what is happening right now. guy: what is going to happen? is it something specific to these individual names? charlie: the is something investors are worried about the moment. you can see some weakness in london. the worry is that that would filter out to the rest of london and the u.k. the bigger picture for me though, is the valuations are quite high. probably too optimistic given the likelihood of margins starting to peak. because i think the house present session will moderate, not just in london, but everywhere. at the same time, i think a lot inflationg costs
3:35 am
will remain. are under pressure. hans: a big conversation here in europe. you can step back up and fill back up if there is another boom. my question is more on the flow of capital. when you see changes in currency, and they are dramatic changes in currency, you see that filter through to the property market? charlie: obviously, this is a london question. has beenentral london tipped off by overseas buyers and currency can play a part in that. the sterling devaluation was a stimulus for london housing. volatility there is a reaction to this. the big story is more to do with transaction taxes and also,
3:36 am
uncertainty around brexit. people use uncertainty to put up decisions. guy: is this related to the brexit story? charlie: i guess it must be, but the real story is uncertainty. it is difficult to know what will happen after the decision, but there is uncertainty leading into that. clearly, if there is an exit vot e with uncertainty in the month after that as treaties get renegotiated. guy: what is the downside? you have a bunch of buys and sells. is the risk to those buys because of the brexit story or is it more broad than that? charlie: it is more broad than that. the sector is fairly -- they are not just the same stocks. with barclays, it is all about london. group,belly
3:37 am
that is about growth all across the u.k. it is much more about people lookiniving in those houses in london. election the merrill play a part in this story as well? there is clearly a story in london that remains something of an issue. do you think the mail debate could change that in any way? likeie: all investors stability. the risk could be that there are changes to the social housing. the more affordable housing they have to provide, the less profitable developments that will come. it seems to me that candidates are striking in the right there he proth housing. that will be in the favor of builders. that is really not too much of a
3:38 am
risk. hans: when you look at the competitors to london, what are the cities that lead with investment plays. what are the cities that you really see threatening london as a place to park your assets, may be because of the risk of brexit? the main competitor to london was new york. many people did not want to make decisions between london and paris. it was more between london and new york. transaction taxes need to be seen in the context of a competing with new york, rather than paris. get do you think people who pushed out of london will buy elsewhere in the u.k.? lie: that is seem to be happening with commercial properties. it is seeping out into the region and we are hearing about
3:39 am
a lot of investment going on in scotland. residential, i am not sure if that works the same way. that we have heard some people, investors have moving out of the zone one into zones two and three. you do the same play in london with population rising, unemployment, and a finite amount of housing. guy: you were talking about the affordability crisis. record deals in london are where? 2% or 3%, if you are lucky? if you are driven by yield. how many are driven by yield? compare and contrast the investment in this low yield we live in. how do the assets stack up?
3:40 am
charlie: we have two central mar kets. if you are investing in the yields, you are out in zones three, four and five. different people are making those decisions, i expect. so, the people who have been parking in the middle of london are probably not deterred by the fact that yields are not very high at the moment. guy: thank you very much indeed. you can look at the an hour anr function on bloomberg. you can see how many holds, buys, and sells there are out there. up next, a crude awakening as stocks climbs to the highest levels in eight decades. we will see what the has done to oil prices and what comes next. that story is next. ♪
3:41 am
3:42 am
3:43 am
hans: i'm hans nichols in berlin. louisiana much weaker euro. -- we see a much weaker euro. i am looking at 1.13. we see a much weaker euro. peter was speaking in frankfurt. sounding very dovish when he was
3:44 am
speaking in brussels earlier today. they could be a matter of the dovishness outweighing the dovishness we have heard from the federal reserve and most recently, from that fomc meet ing. we will be monitoring this throughout the morning. in the meantime, let's get to the bloomberg is net/. let's get to caroline hyde. caroline: thank you so much, hans. shares have dipped is by better-than-expected first-quarter profits. the release of the galaxy s7 gave it a headstart on apple. estimated onwere the sleales with 9 million units sold. emc is seeking to sell a business as part of a plan to divest more than $6 billion of assets.
3:45 am
but is according to people with knowledge of the matter. is move comes as dell pushes ahead with the largest technology takeover ever. numora traders have been accused of increasing the spread of the traits and generating about $7 million in additional revenue by lying how much they paid for debt. shapiro, michael graham and, and tyler clemens have pleaded not guilty and were scheduled to go to trial in november. plansf executive officer to step down, according to the nikkei. earlier, directors voted down proposed personal changes to the company. the 7-eleven japanese store unit comes after the investor warned the firm about nepotism. that is your bloomberg business flash guy? guy: let's check out the price
3:46 am
of oil this morning. we haven't rising for a third day. u.s. stockpiles unexpectedly declined. let's bring in executive editor wallace. why was the market caught on the hop yesterday? >> is not a logical and able to expect stockpiles to keep rising. of aet a little bit turnaround, but they have not gotten into the summer season yet. will we did see was a slight dip in the stockpiles. it was expected not only because of the forecast, but because of the five-year. i would urge people to pull off from the two and three yaeear stockpiles. we have a long way to go before we get back to normality. hans: give us a time frame on that. it is an easy statement to make, but when we put it down to calendar terms, what are you looking at? >> if you look at the goldman
3:47 am
note that came out this morning, if you are looking at the goldman scenario for some of the energy equity plays, they thetalking about $35 as level where they can still make money, but you will have this huge resurgence of production. then, they are looking into next year where you see prices climbing. it is a very slow recovery to start with. guy: can i take you to a story on bloomberg? is this idea that we use data,ry data and january we get a big pickup in iranian production and as a result, the deal is a little bit more achievable. everybody is waiting on an brakes to see what happens -- everyone is waiting in pinpricks to see what happens. are be pushing toward a deal? >> we are. and i think it does come down to a question of, what do we do about iran?
3:48 am
iran's position is a fairly reasonable one. we have a lot of production and exports we lost during sanctions and we want to get that back. we have an economy that needs some money. that is not very helpful when you consider the outsourcing and supply sessions in the world. ultimately, this is what it is about. it is a sentiment driven move. fundamentally, it will much into the picture. most are not producing a record level anyway. it is not like you will have a production cut. this is something much wider. guy: if we were to see a deal done, talk to me about how sentiment will change and how the market's position, how does this actually work? >> i think you have seen a lot of the positioning happening, not to say that you will not have significant changes before
3:49 am
april 17. what you have seen is a lot of short come out of the market. they are not necessarily going for the long side. we are pretty much around $40 now, which is surprising for a lot of people. couple of people a lot of weeks ago, there were a lot of bearish voices out there. people are now taking a more neutral position. indeed,nk you very much stewart wallace. we're going to make sure we cover this for you. we are 15 minutes into the trading day. up next, i want to see what is happening in the currency market right now. a sell off in the euro. the pound has sold up against the euro. and then we throw in th ee yen. that is coming up after the break. ♪
3:50 am
3:51 am
3:52 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching "on the move." i want to walk you through the charts this morning, th vis a vis the fx markets. . something of a cell a pair on this chart. i want to highlight the move on the pound, which is what happened earlier in the day. i want to take you through this chart. this is the euro and this is the pound.
3:53 am
the euro has been getting some traction versus the pound. what is causing these moves is the dutch story feeding into negative news for the pound. what is happening with the euro? wire begetting a selloff with that? i want to get to the chart in a moment, but first let's bring in richard jones to join us. walk us through the last 30 minutes. richard: we had a story on the terminal, reporting thabig buying taking is up to a 22 month high. morningow in the early like that, there is not nearly as much liquidity as we have later in the day. to call people on the wrong side of that. but -- it caught people on the wrong side of that. but i also think this is a reaction to the brexit move. guy: the market is pretty sensitive, isn't it? may be a little bit too sensitive and reading between
3:54 am
the lines a little bit too aggressively. richard: and we have about two and a half months of it. if you look at sterling versus the dollar, we know what is going on with the fed. veryhis is actually interesting because there are so many implications of the brexit vote in june, not only in this country, but for the eurozone as well. richard, you are going to be the judge on the battle of the charts today. i am going to show you the last four fed chairs, they will be on the same stage today and everyone is excited. you thet shows average. yellen, 0.9%. gives you a sense of the structural challenges they have. i will go off script and not ask is, who do winner you have breakfast with,
3:55 am
would he have dinner with, and who do you have drinks with? theard: you have to start day with having a meal with janet yellen, the current fed she will giveyou wil you insight into what is happening. then you can delve into the history with the other fed chairs. volker for drinks, i reckon. i thought he was the oldest, but greenspan is the senior. jpmorgan what of it is highlighting is the fact that we keep hearing this commentary coming out from the japanese about intervention. basis, this on a daily but the point that jpmorgan makes is that you take a look at the current account and what is happening there, and this is actually company flow. this is real money flow, very
3:56 am
hard to intervene against and as a result, despite the fact that we busted through 1.09 and are 1.05, toward 1.08 and intervening in this market would be very hard for the japanese to do. richard: there is a realization that the boj is not going to be there in the way they have been in the past and we might reach 1.05 before they come in to stop the flow. as: hans described this pathetic. which one resonates with you this morning? richard: the history undergrad major in me loves hans' chart, but the trader in me loves this chart and i am going to have to side with guy johnson, if only to make it 2-2 for the week. guy: i think 2-2, all down to tomorrow mr.nichols. itdid think about not doing
3:57 am
today, but that would have given hans a guaranteed draw and that is not going to happen. don't miss the historic gathering later today. janet yellen and her predecessors on the same stage. ♪
3:58 am
3:59 am
4:00 am
yen rises to a 17 months high. jpmorgan's ceo says investors should be prepare for u.s. rates to go negative. voters in the netherlands as euro skeptic politicians hailed the result. means.iscuss what it so, welcome to "the pulse"


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on