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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  April 19, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. saudi arabia waiting for klein.n banker matthew netflix shares plummeting after it is nowy reports the time to buy netflix.
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the push upward is materials, energy, financial. techolar downward has been and discretionary. the stocks working are those within that energy and materials group. what does this have to do with the dollar on the climb? the lowest in about nine months.
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when you glance here, the only one down is sugar. highering else trading as we see that continued dip in the dollar. betty: surprisingly, it has been on tech. julie: that is that drag we have seen. ibm coming out with a missed estimates. those shares have been down and some of the other large cap tech share. act has been the balancing throughout the session.
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mark: hillary clinton has lost seven of the last eight primary or caucus is to senator bernie sanders. now the democratic presidential front-runner is hoping to regain the upper hand. this is clinton is favored in the new york primary. is counting on his home state to provide a big boost to the republican presidential nomination. surveys show esther trumbo with johnble-digit lead over kasich. ted cruz says he won't ask for a recount of his narrow loss in missouri. of day cruz faced an end deadline to contest the results
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of the march 15 voting. donald trump defeated senator votes. 2000 those -- residentsst. louis testified in a final public hearing before a judge decided the ferguson settlement with the justice department will go forward. has been under scrutiny since michael brown, a black unarmed teenager was fatally shot by a white police officer in 2014. a justice department investigation found racial prejudice in ferguson's criminal system. the u.s. is deploying disaster experts to ecuador and sending $1000 in supplies as the country deals with tens of thousands of displaced citizens. the agency for international development is joining the survivors.elp teens from mexico, switzerland,
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colombia, venezuela are in place. more than 4000 injured in the earthquake. 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. teddy: thank you. yahoo! and intel reporting after the market close today, my next guest says this season has been frontloaded with stocks from two groups that have seen a lot of weakness, banks and energy. i want to bring in not narrowly -- matt malley. this start with you about earnings season so far. the fact you say we are frontloading some of the weaker earnings, what does that say to you? matt: frontloading the weaker
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stocks. when they beat expectations, they have already priced in the negative earnings. a lot of other stocks have had their earnings lowered but there stocks have not come down. it just happens by chance of ease companies have been the first ones out. -- these companies have in the first ones out. all their earnings were actually down but they beat expectations but the stocks were down. betty: are you saying this is a bit of a head fake? matt: i'm not sure yet. let's see how they do when you have stocks that haven't been beaten up because the earnings are still expected to be down and unlike other quarters, it will be down in energy as well. betty: what do you think of the earnings season so far? companies need to make
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money to keep hiring people to invest. far, the companies haven't been hiring at a healthy pace, which has been good for the economy. they haven't seen much of an investment as of late. we need to see stronger growth and profit for that to materialize. betty: isn't that going to be helped by the fed? companies are seeing rising wages but they don't have enough pricing power with rates so low. yelena: the raytown been low for so long and we still haven't have been the rates so low for so long. you are absolutely right. betty: matt, what does that mean for the stock market? : obviously, we have some uncertainties with oil, what is going to happen with greece.
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we have this huge rally and its been a rally often oversold level. if you go back 18 months, the stock market has still done nothing. the upside is somewhat limited. the one thing that will be interesting to watch is what happens in europe, germany. germany's index is testing its 200 day moving average, which has been a key level for that index in both direction. this is a tight correlation between the dax and the s&p 500. if we can get a break in germany, that would be positive for the stock market. we did get some good news out of germany last night. zew data. betty: why is there such a strong correlation? germany's funny because thebeen the powerhouse of
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economy in europe for a long time. we see big moves in the stock markets in mediterranean countries. that has been the bellwether for europe. how germany isut a silly sort inside but europe as a whole is still the biggest economy in the world. we have the ecb meeting thursday. i don't think anyone expects more movement had of mario draghi but what are you looking for? economics areerg not expecting any policy announcement. draghi willident need to reassure analysts they andthere and not giving up they still need to assess the
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measures they announced at the previous meeting. some of them have not been implemented yet. to see the effects and how that will lay into the economy. betty: it's a great point. the big picture hasn't moved that much since they started implementing these measures. how about back in the u.s., the housing numbers this morning? week across the board unfortunately. it was week on the regional permits housing and declined. that is the start of the spring construction season, which is unfortunate. weak continue to see this reading going forward, this
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should contribute positively. that would be a worrisome and if the trend continues into the second quarter. i don't think we should overlook the data point today. agreed. it was surprising, particularly as you say the spring season is starting in the housing market. are watchingyou oil closely. we have seen this strong correlation between stocks and oil. not as strong lately but are you as hawkish lee ie oil prices as -- were before eing oil prices as you were before? yes.
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one of the reasons we had the big correction in the market back in january or february was because of what happened in the high-yield market but also to credit spreads and other parts of the market. no one is looking for a freezing up but if we get a problem in the credit markets, it gets people to unwind is some of their leverage. it's not just an economic thing alsothe price of oil, it's a system situation and it's something we have to watch carefully to see how it affects the credit markets. , matt.thank you also thank you to yelena. much more ahead. next, saudi arabia said to select former citigroup investment baker michael klein. will the sale impact of the offering? and the alumina tumbling the most .
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we go to the nasdaq to find how much it's dragging the index down. investors.g is this a long-term trend or a blip in its growth story? much more ahead. ♪
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betty: you are watching "bloomberg markets." a quick check on how the markets are trading right now. on the s&p 500, we are creeping higher. the dow is up by about 52 point. it has been tech that has been
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the laggard today and that is why you see the nasdaq in the red. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. shares of goldman sachs are rebounding after the bank reported a 60% drop in first-quarter profit. revenue dropped the lowest since the ceo took over 10 years ago. goldman has been the dow's worst performing stock this year. first-quarter profit estimates for the largest health insurer loss on obamacare. the company losing money on affordable care act policies and plans to withdraw from five states next year. argentina has been shut out of global credit markets for 15 years. now it's returning with a blockbuster sale.
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the south american agent is planning on selling $16.5 billion in bonds. that would be a single day record for developing country and mark the end of a period of 2001.ion following saudi arabia oil company is almost too big to imagine but hasrgan and michael klein been selected to advise the ipo. matt has written several stories on the global oil markets for bloomberg business week. tell us first what is the latest on the ipo? latest is this seems to be going forward. there is been a lot of skepticism about whether the saudi's are real about this.
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this is kind of more evidence that they are for real about this and bringing in jpmorgan is -- jpmorgan in what is assuming to be the main banker on this. is now in his own boutique shop. it seems like he has more of a strategic role in this. but this is a strong team and more evidence that the saudi's are serious about doing this probally before the end of 17 they say. tell me more about the relationship between j.p. morgan and the saudi arabian family. michael kleinen and the royal family. what kind of background can you give us as to how it was selected?
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matthew: aramco used to stand for the arabian american oil company. the original owners were exxon, mobil. that relationship goes back decades and decades back to the rockefellers. chase has been a long time anchor -- banker for ramco. jpmorgan seems to have had the pull position here. they have been working on this for a couple weeks and they are well into it. betty: so when are we going to get official news on this ipo? is there any sense of a timeline? matthew: the man behind this is the king's youngest son, second in line to the throne. in interviews he has given to bloomberg, he seems inclined to
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roll this out in an official capacity sometime in the next month or so. whether that includes more details on the ipo of aramco remains to be seen. it in the realm of a 5% stake in the parent. there was skepticism about whether the parent or downstream of subsidiaries is inclined to do the whole parent. this is all in line to reform the economy, to win the kingdom off its sole dependence on oil. this generates he says will be in the realm of $100 billion and put into what will be the world's largest sovereign wealth fund. the government will remain the largest owner of aramco. that will also go into the sovereign wealth fund.
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the idea is to make investments the largest source of government revenue rather than oil revenue. betty: thank you so much. certainly a huge story. bloombergips with news. still ahead, netflix shares are pulling back after investors were disappointed with international subscriber growth but could it be a buying opportunity? we will find out in a moment. ♪
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julie: joining me today as kevin kelly, chief investment officer . we have been talking a lot about earnings and the tech disappointments. i know you have been watching that. do think there is more to come?
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heaven: if you look at the trading volume that has happened in the nasdaq 100 index options, you see four times the knot of puts of being traded versus calls. you also see 1.5 times puts being traded in. on the retail side, people are very nervous and thursday will actually be very telling for the nasdaq 100 because you will have 25% of the index reporting after the close -- google, microsoft, starbucks and amazon. that oneu tend to have really heavy day when you are talking about the nasdaq 100. game a doubt when you're looking at all of those because they will not all go in the same direction after the numbers. people are worried about netflix, old tech when it comes to ibm. own thate making their
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individually on stocks whether it's two times the knot of calls being traded but on the overall index, people. looking at another old tech name, microsoft. another one of these big legacy tech companies. do you think ibm bodes badly for microsoft? kevin: where ibm loses, microsoft wins. you start to see them make big headways especially when it comes to the cloud. before, they were compromising margins and you are starting to see them come up and you are starting to see the options market. and the earnings move is anticipating a 5.5% move, which so it mayit above $60 break out to an all-time high.
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does that mean it's expensive for you to go in and do a call trade? the best way to mitigate risk is to do a call spread where you buy a call and sell another call higher above it. therek at the $60 because could be an overhang on that $60 price. $2.50 and it cost you about $.59. the most you can lose is that $.95. you don't have to worry about the market moving. inie: we will check back next week. thank you so much. we will be right back with more "bloomberg markets." ♪
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liu. mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. mark: donald trump counting on his own state to provide a big boost to the nomination. polls show mr. trump with a double-digit lead in today's new york primary. a win would give trump momentum into five key northeast contest next week. meanwhile hillary clinton who represented the work in the senate is helping to increase her lead over bernie sanders, who has won seven of the last eight primaries and caucuses. one of donald trump's jets has been flying for months with expired registration. the airplane lost its registered status after failure to pay a five dollar fee to the faa. the aircraft in violation is not trumps boeing 757. it is a 1997 cessna citation x, a smaller plane trump uses to
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visit smaller airports. the obama administration is warning states about setting medicaid funds to planned parenthood. the administration has sent letters to officials in all 50 states advising such cuts may not comply with federal law. 10 states have cut medicaid funds to planned parenthood. a federal appeals court in virginia has overturned the policy, barring a transgender student from using the boys restroom at his high school. boardnel says that school policy is discriminatory. a federal judge rejected the discrimination claim. two brushfires halted rail service outside new york city today. theak says service outside penn station has been restored. the destruction was a two fires that broke out. of smoke large clouds into the air but no injuries
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were reported. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. inty: markets are closing just under 30 minutes. abigail has more at the nasdaq with a rally in tech shares. abigail: the index opened higher and was quickly lower in the right down nearly 1% early afternoon. first, the biggest drag on the nasdaq, alumina. shares are plunging after the company pre-announced its first-quarter sales outlook, reduced the full-year sales outlook. the weakness apparently being driven by europe. jonathan palmer says the company faces a difficult path ahead. now that tech giant that turned higher on the day, facebook. right around 12:45, the stocks
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started to shoot higher. social media spending for the first quarter was pretty decent. this pop today could be sending facebook back to the top of a trading range, suggesting stocks could move higher, especially if facebook manages to close above its 10 day moving average, telling us the buyers could the getting interested in shares. betty: one reason facebook would have been down before turning back around is this netflix news. abigail: absolutely. facebook was most let the trading down in sympathy with netflix. one of the big internet stocks. this has been the second biggest on the day.nasdaq the company offered a weak second-quarter outlook. this is really the outcome cory barrett was looking for.
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he got the company would post a solid first quarter but was concerned about second and third quarter guidance. he reduces numbers below consensus. today, he told me that 2016 is progressing as the year of digesting for investors in netflix. it looks like the sellers are ,ushing the stocks back down suggesting netflix may just find this year's lows near $80 per share or even lower if the buying support fails to step up and pushed the stocks back higher. right now, it looks pretty bearish for netflix. betty: thank you. thisix obtaining complicated picture of its global expansion when they reported their results yesterday. expected to add those 2 million new international customers. i was way below the 300 million averages analysts had expected.
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but the recent pullback is seen as a buying opportunity. >> the debate on netflix really hasn't changed. it's how big can the u.s. business get? yesterday, we got good news and bad news. the u.s. business, which is 50% penetrated come actually delivered ahead of expectations and that is fueled by the original programming. that opportunity in front of the company internationally as we look at the domestic growth is there and it's better than expected. unfortunately the international growth taking longer. that was reflected in the second quarter guidance around international. q1 was ahead of expectation.
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the market cap of the company is down over $4 billion today so a lot of this bad news is digested in the market today. it comes down to do you believe netflix can replicate the success here overseas and have proven that in a lot of markets like the u.k. and latin america and we don't and the model has broken. they're going to have to localize some of that content and that means more cash outlay as well. >> that is true. it will cause them more money on original but i think they will replace a lot of content that isn't exclusive and licensed to with original programming. the bearing for the back they get an original as it relates to subscriber growth is better than it does for stuff that is licensed. they really have a truly unique opportunity around the global programming. you may think spending $7
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million for an episode of a tv show is a lot of money but when you are going global and you have this huge market, that is par household number that is manageable and more efficient willyour local broadcaster put out so it gives them a competitive advantage on spending versus those local incumbents. competitors guys like amazon? it seems like upper income thanholds will have more one streaming device. but lower incomes can only afford one and that will be a netflix or amazon situation. can netflix compete with those deep pockets? >> i think people make a mistake when they look at netflix versus amazon as the exclusive opportunity. most people spend most of their time watching cable television, freelite television, or tv. what we're talking about is those incumbent experiences
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losing share to new mobile players -- global players. the reality is both can grow quite a bit from here and take share from the incumbent to relieve dominate the entertainment business in most of these markets today. scarlet: i wonder to what instant -- extent its own structure to look at the numbers when it's still dominated by the content it releases? >> i think seasonality of content is important. when you look at the television business, people watch less tv in the summer and more in the winter. that proves to be true when you look at subscriber growth as well. 2 wouldknew q decelerate from q1. but that seasonality will be there, which is why we think q3
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net ads will be better than q2. still ahead, looking at another company that reported their results. tv ameritrade ceo joins us on earnings and the changing and challenging environment for financials. ♪
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betty: let's dig into some more highlights in the markets today.
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danny is here with more from the bloomberg news stocks team. earnings, what the makeup today's game? >> you just have to look at the commodity space. then you look at the trading today and we had some midday fluctuation. i think earnings are having an impact here. when you look at the stocks which last year earlier lead gains, if you said at that point -- betty: facebook, amazon, google. dani: if he said last year they would be down the most in six weeks, a lot of people would have a hard time believing you. this is the charts in our bloomberg about the worst day in six weeks but how much of this is a just sort of fun to talk about and how much is really affecting the market? weightetflix is a huge
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on that, down over 10% for earnings. having ansolutely impact. at the same time, people have been saying time and time again, these really expensive stocks will not be as important for the market anymore. maybe we are seeing remnants of that but this trading has been pretty unusual with these fluctuations we have seen. it might be too early to say whether this will recover from here or if this is more of a permanent fundamental change. betty: the s&p 500 briefly touched 2100. how significant is that? dani: it's the first time since december. technical analysts really like this nice round number. only that mental barrier getting over that level but analyst from jpmorgan has said it's important for automated strategy. these computer-driven strategies
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, when it hits 2100, the buzzer goes off and they begin to buy stocks. they are estimating it could be as much as $100 million they are contributing to the market. on the flipside, if stocks go below 2025, they said they could sell as much as 120 billion. different sides of that same coin. betty: two technical levels. dani: exactly. these automated strategies that are very exposed to equities -- you could say this is pretty bullish, if we get above 2100, they will be this big rally that might convince investors to get in there but at the same time, because they might be reading this rally, there is this threat they could pull back and have a really risky movement here. tell in guess time will the next few days whether we see
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an exclamation or not. the other thing you are watching is hedge funds returning to the markets. dani: this data comes from think of america. board,ross the institutions have been net sellers of equities but for the first time, the week through april 15, hedge funds were buyers. they have been selling for a straight nine weeks and this is the first week they are getting back in. betty: thank you so much. dani berger making sense of the market. reported theirs earnings up 9% from a year ago thanks to this boost and client activity that average more than 5000 trades a day. tom joins us now from the floor of the new york stock exchange. first, tell me about the slows
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you are seeing from the first of this year to now. fred: we definitely saw the very in january andts february. january and february, we had a technical correction. march, the markets started to come back in we are talking about all time highs in the market here. the retail investor is still pretty cautious right now go when into the highs of the market we are seeing now. betty: if the markets start to get more volatile as we saw at the beginning of this year and given this uncertainty -- we not sure anymore about what opec is going to do, about what the fed goingng to do -- is that to be bad for business? fred: that still continues today. ,here we did well and trading our margin loans definitely came seen that.haven't it's started to come back a bit
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but people are being very cautious. going to behe slows less than this average temper sent you have experienced in growth? fred: we are temper sent so far for the first few months of the for the year. far we are starting to see early signs of that coming back. i think it will be a stretch to , which10% this year would be the eighth year in a row. i do expect it to be a 9% range if not 10%. the management team is focused on that. betty: i know you are focused on the fed and interest rates. how you preparing our business for the possibility we may see just one rate hike this year? fred: we run our business ignoring the impact of the fed fund increase. we want a matched the balance sheet. we are disciplined on that. running oury we are
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business so there will not be another increase. if you look at the market today, there should be one more but only time will tell in this environment. betty: on the call with the analyst, you talk about the rules that was put in place by the government earlier in april. tell me what the cost is. are you able to assess what this rule cost will be two or bottom line? fred: we cannot estimate that yet. it's a little early. it is a 1000 plus page rule. we think it's a better than the original proposal. but it's still a very complicated document. 1000 plus pages. we're working through that right now and we will talk more about that. it will impact expenses to a degree but we don't expect it to be material. betty: how are you retraining
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your advisors to make sure you comply with this rule? fred: we have to understand it. until we do that, it's hard to train them for this type of world. create an experience between if you are a nonregistered account or ira account, you will get a slightly different experience. basically, it is still early to really say how this will impact us. betty: but it's not too early for summer public cla -- for for someblic: -- republican lawmakers to try to pass this bill. do you agree with that assessment so far? fred: overall in the market, that is a fair assessment because some of the people providing advice to the smaller
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accounts are going to have financial difficulties complying with it. we think we are in a good position to adjust and not only comply, but take advantage of it. we look at it as an opportunity but i think in a broader market, there will be some small investors. betty: you mentioned some opportunities, positive opportunities for your business. where you talking about? basically it's going to create a different experience. some of the other players and the market will not be able to do what they do today. we want to fill that void and take advantage of that opportunity. betty: revenue for trade is extremely important for your business. and ite coming down seems like every other day, you see a new company come out to undercut commission. how will you boost revenue portrayed?
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fred: i'm not sure we can boost revenue for trade to liberally. it's a very price competitive business. been first,n has the mix of our trading which has futures.o it was on a record of 12% trade volume last quarter. the vicks was elevated and that will cause fewer option contracts, about a third of our darts. that will impact the commission for trade. betty: thank you, fred. much more ahead
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betty: this is "bloomberg am eddie lew. julie hyman has room market check. julie: the pattern has remained steady for the last hour. the nasdaq trading lower here. by off i want it shut down some of the big corporate mover we have been watching today. to check on some of the big corporate movers we have been watching today. viacom started warming dish network subscribers they could lose channels like comedy central and nickelodeon late on wednesday because of a dispute between the companies because they are seeing increased competition from the likes of netflix and are trying to raise
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fees. that appears to be what is happening and viacom shares are off by 8%. we have had a lot of earnings news as well worth highlighting. johnson and johnson rising after that company's earnings beat estimates largely on the strength of its pharmaceutical business, now overtaking medical devices in terms of divisions. united also coming out with earnings at beast at -- beat estimates. also on the earnings front today, goldman sachs. goldman sachs, interesting day here. the shares initially were lower out of the gate. earnings beat estimates revenue. but like we have seen, because isdman is cost-cutting, it being rewarded at least today in terms of how the shares are performing. just a roundup of some of the
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other companies we have heard from. kansas city southern beating estimates, shares higher by 5%. harley davidson did not raise its full-year forecast for shipments of motorcycles. and full of morris also down after earnings missed estimates as cigarette volumes were down. only get busier from here. buckle up. betty: thank you. julie hyman at the market desk. that is it for bloomberg markets. "what'd you miss?" and the market closes next. here are the major averages as we are left four minutes away from the closing bell. will we hold onto these games? we will find out. ♪
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we are moments away from the closing bell.
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alix: u.s. docs closing mixed at this afternoon. the dollar falling to its lowest level since june, sparking a rallying commodity. "oe: "what'd you miss? scarlet: please breakdown the numbers for you in minutes. joe: our guest says commodity prices haven't been more important than they are right now for emerging-market currencies in over a decade. >> and putting an end to the tear any of the noncompete clause. the wide-out strategy has worked out well for silicon valley. we begin with our market minutes. stocks closed mixed. the s&p 500 tried to get to 2100, didn't quite make it. the dow industrial seeing above 18,000.


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