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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  April 20, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT

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anna: ending the losing streak come a donald trump and hillary clinton when the new york primaries, reasserting control over the fight for president nominations. london is on the line, mark carney says the role in the financial system would shrink in britain leaves the eu. and the biggest slide in seven weeks, china stocks tumble as the pcob is improving economic outlook. ♪
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welcome to the program, everybody. this is countdown, live from london. just at 6:00 in the morning here in london. let us get to breaking news this morning. we have a lot earnings coming through, starting with the business that is syngenta. in the process of becoming acquired by the state-owned at $43 billion. in the meantime, they have given us an update. performance is resilient in a challenging marketplace. they are giving a sales number for the first quarter, $3.74 billion, just ahead that was estimated by the market. there has been a host of mergers and acquisitions, dow chemical trying to merge with the rival dupont as well. a lot of talk about on the m&a, and whether the deal with china will go through. trading through the offering price, we saw traders talking about only a 35% chance of this
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deal actually being done. concerns ingulation the u.s. particularly around this kind of industry, seem to be a concern for some watching the sector. let us move on. we have a lot of news coming from the technology space. we have u.s. earnings of course over the past couple of days. reporting numbers now, this is the largest -- europe's largest semiconductor equipment maker. what clues are they giving us about the pace that customers will ramp up the capacity or invest in new machinery, that is always key with asml. 1.7 billion euros is the first quarter, in line with the estimate of 1.6 5 billion. in terms of the things they're talking about this morning, gross margins come in at 42.6%. that is exactly in line with the 42 .6%., which was the net profit is 198 million euros, ahead of the 184 million.
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the business includes names such as intel, samsung, see you do of how thefeel chip sector is doing when you look at that company. a business that is touting systems,ltraviolet trying to upgrade to new versions of the technology. that is syngenta and aslm. those are the big ones at the moment. let us talk a little bit about the broader market picture. we mentioned the headlines seeing weakness in the chinese market, and after today, you will see the chinese stock market falling as a result of some of the comments we have had from the pcob. talking about how they will pay attention to heading off macro risk, as well as supporting growth. does that signal a slightly different emphasis on the business? 40.02.p going ahead back to work after
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the strike. and the silver price is at 17.1356. a by 2%, and silver is now in bull market. an interesting story coming through on commodities. we are just getting breaking news from sap as well. ,e heard from the business numbers back on april 8. that was the revenue and topline numbers if you like. there are now giving us more detail, slower than expected start to the year. which no doubt will be a focus for investors. they are reiterating the 2016 forecast, though. and as i say, we did hear some of those numbers little bit early on this year. they are seeing 2016 sales on track, after a sluggish start to the year. previously, they blamed political and economic instability in latin america, particularly brazil. that has not been going anywhere fast. with a view for these earning releases, bloomberg tv will have
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an exclusive interview with sap's ceo. that is at 7:40 a.m. u.k. time . a lot of earnings wrapped up, let us get the first word news. rish joins us from hong kong. rish: good morning. the city of london should play a preeminent role, if britain leaves the european union. that is according to governor of the bank of england, mark carney. dominating the landscape, and leaving the eu would probably diminish that. they have fallen to a record low, meaning they now yield less than 0.4%. negative rates are seeing positive yields into longer native debt. but at the end of the day, governor kuroda says he does nothing easing has reached the limit. china says the bank is signaling
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appetite for adding monetary stimulus. that is after evidence in growth, the third wave of the upgraded forecast by private economist. meanwhile, and now takes chinese companies a record 192 days to collect payments for goods or services. that is up from 125 days five years ago. , they will nots be able to pay the debt. the fbi has admitted it collected data. came as a bureau official appeared before a government official. the fbi dropped the claim against apple over an encrypted iphone used by one of the san bernardino shooters. that has been a legal standoff over access to a drug dealers phone. they had asked for phone to encryption, but it was denied. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 bureaus around the world. you can find more data at the
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top . anna? let's check in on asia, if i'm man is standing by. yvonne? vonne: that is right. we have a bit of ground here in the afternoon session, to these benchmarks turning negative in the afternoon session. the shanghai stocks, take a look in that. down by about 1.4% is the hang seng. now that we have seen a little bit of a pickup in terms of the data outlook. take a look at how the shanghai composite has performed in the past month and a half. we see the month of march, rebounding some 12%. and now analysts are speculative is waning forest mainland equities after that rebound that we saw. and still back below that 3000 level at 29.4 on the shanghai
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composite. over in the region we have seen up 4/10 of 1% on the commodity rally overnight. that is sending the oil producers, holding on to the gains. it has been kind of the sign. we finally saw solid ground in the afternoon session, 4/10 of 1%. we did get comments coming from governor kuroda late morning, talking about he sees no technical limit for asset purchases. low rates will go on for now. and he sees more scope for negative interest rate easing brady also rejected the idea of helicopter money, as well. can stills the boj buy bonds for years. speaking of bond we did talk about the 40 year japanese yield going to a record low. now 0.31%. you want to show you here on the touchscreen, we can show you why this is happening. we saw the 10 year yield go negative, and we are seeing
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-0.1% on the 10 year yield right now. we see investors piling into these longer dated debt, just to find some type of positive yield. not take a look at japan, they will yield you less than 0.4%. so we will continue to watch those today. but really, these bond markets, really debunking the kind of speculation here that there is an imminent collapse in the debt market in japan. if you are shorting them, that is why you call them the widow-maker tray. anna: fascinating to see all of those going below 0.4%. is looking fork new ideas, pointing out, as you rightly did, that milton friedman's helicopter money came back. we will talk about that. let us move on to the political scene. donald trump and henry clinton have won their new york state presidential primaries. ending losing streaks for both
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campaigns. began after his projected victory, donald trump ruled out rival ted cruz taking out the nomination. mr. trump: we do not have much of her race anymore, based on what i am seeing on television. senator cruz is just about mathematically eliminated. more votes millions than senator cruz, millions and millions more votes than governor kasich. anna: megan murphy has more. great to have you on the program. trump is saying there is not much competition. he is close the nomination? is definitely closer than he has been anytime before tonight. and he is correct in saying that mathematically, there is no path ahead for ted cruz or governor john kasich. to secure the republican nomination outright over him. the only hope is to try and heal away delegates from him.
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from getting the 1237 he needs to secure the nomination outright before we have a convention in july. but while his path is still tough to get back, it became a lot easier with his big win last night. anna: and what is the journey from here then? for trump and for clinton? megan: four donald trump, he will look ahead to next tuesday, where we have another significant number of races. he has big leads in most of them, as though she. on her side though, i mean we have already seen bernie sanders -- a little bit of confusion among his team whether or not there in this race. they want to assess the campaign? they really have no mathematical chance of beating her to get the nomination. and there is already some talk among some of the time has come for him to think about his message, how he wants to go for the democratic party that has been very fractured between the two of them during this race. anna: megan, thanks very much for covering that for us.
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washington bureau chief, megan murphy. joining us now, christian schulz. great to have you on the program. let us start with the u.s. then. what is at stake for europe? to what extent does this really factor in on the european rater, the election taking place in the u.s. at the moment? christian: to be honest, not very much yet. so much uncertainty about these elections, that uncertainty itself is i guess some sort of atk to the u.s. economy, least at the beginning of the year and last year. it was not really growing much in terms of exports. a bit of a drag. we do expect things to normalize somewhat about the rest of the year. so that europe should be doing little bit better out of exports in the u.s.. but the political situation over there is clearly something we are watching. something we are trying to understand. it looks like a clinton presidency is sort of the best
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case that we work from. but there are some new wildcards in this campaign that we have to be prepared for anything really. anna: we know enough about the policies of any candidates yet at this point? is trade, migration of the same? christian: in particular, trade negotiations going on, obviously a bit of a long-term topic in itself. and that is certainly something that we have to concerned about because am both sides, there seemed to be some concern in the u.s. about this. we more generally, i think are more focused on what the fed is doing. and to me, it looks like it is pretty independent of what is going on in washington. that getsyou someone excited about what it could deliver for the european economy, for the global growth story? christian: yes. the biggest trading boxes in the world negotiating lower tariffs,
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more integration and more open trade in services. that is very exciting. it could boost growth significantly over a long period of time. and for europe itself, it would strengthen the interest for more liberalizing reforms. even within europe, the share that you could give is very important. anna: where is the risk on the u.s. growth story right now are? ? i have a chart our colleagues a bloomberg intelligence have produced, fourth order downgrades by economists. expectations are really the norm. in this case, 2014-2015, and into 2017, looking at the path of the forecast, they fall quite consistently. economists are not an optimistic they have to revise the thoughts down. how optimistic are you about the u.s.? christian: it is always quarter one, always winter, very often has some to do with -- it is not
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so much disruptions. and it seems that that is very difficult to gauge the u.s. economy. clearly, again this year, a year where forecasts have come down already, as they have in the past, given that the starting point was already in previous years, that is reassuring. the important gauges such as a labor market are still not showing any signs of weakness. so i think the underlying path of recovery in the u.s. is still very much impact. anna: thank you very much. christian stays with us. here is what lies ahead for you today in the markets. both sides of the brexit debate are likely to jump on the u.k. unemployment figures may come out at 9:30 u.k. time. and then at noon, a rate decision from turkey. the first from the new central bank governor in that country. at the same time, on the other side of the atlantic, it will be mba mortgage applications into
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the housing market. and three hours later, home sales data from america. obaman the u.s., barack s saudi arabia. he will be in this part of the world later on. mark carney warns lawmakers about the city of london's future if the u.k. votes to leave the eu. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 1:00 in minutes past hong kong. the hang seng down 1.3%. chinese markets under pressure in the asian session. let us get the bloomberg business flash. the turnaround plan atting estimates, coming in
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$159 million. off by expectations. investors now turning to yahoos sale process. theprivate equity firm, first round of bidding for the core internet business. intel cutting 11% of its workforce, as personal computer and shipments fall. which is the focus to the high-growth areas, including chip for data centers and internet connected devices. to have a look at what is going on in the second quarter sales, $13.5 billion, about 5% below estimates. goldman sachs, jpmorgan, morgan stanley all claim to be the best dealmaker in the first quarter of this year. the intent is to market themselves as number one, rarely stronger than 2016. they are advising on takeovers, holding up relatively well in the trump in underwriting stocks.
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back to you in london. anna: they're in hong kong. let us move on. the ceo says there is no upside to the u.k. leaving the eu. speaking to manus cranny, michael o'leary talks about what a vote to leave could mean for great britain's relationship. you vote to leave, and i hope that you will not, do information from the french, germans, competitor nations. it would not make it easy to get back in. it would take far longer than two years to renegotiate re-entrance and to the single marketplace. and great britain is going to be manifestly worse off. anna: bank of england governor worried abouts negative interest rate, calling the brexit the most significant midterm domestic risk to find a possibility. speaking from the lord's economic affairs committee, he defended the analysis of a
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potential exit, saying that it did not amount to political influence. risk reporting major does not mean becoming involved in politics. rather, it would be political to suppress important judgments that relate directly to the banks, and which influence our policy anna: factions. day, speaking at an event in london, he said it would allow the u.k. to pursue a better beneficial immigration policy. as well as giving hope the rest of europe. britain voting to leave would be something potentially even more exciting. the democratic liberation of an entire continent. if we were to leave, we will have come in the words of a former british prime minister, saved by example. carney'snwhile, mark
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comments are not the only one being closely watched. mario draghi take center stage tomorrow, where the central bank meets for a policy decision. it may prove to be a rocky ride on the markets during the update. assets, double the christian is still with us. from your perspective, you are focusing in on what the ecb is going to do, or rather not do but say is probably more to the point. what i was just saying there about volatility, christian, some great analysis that our bloomberg colleagues have done. they talk about the stock swings during these meetings, which have increased. they have become wilder. wilder versus other macro news event. does that make sense to you? yet another symbol of the power that lies with central banks at the moment? christian: indeed, just the reflection of the importance for global markets. and the ecb in particular, what we have seen in march, pulling
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so many different triggers. after purchases, various interest rates, technicalities of purchase program, that in the course of this press conference, you have a series of up and down vote street surprises which the markets reacted. not just the importance of the central bank in the decisions of a take, but the shared amount, and preferred the case for the ecb which could cause volatility. anna: i say that you'll be listening to what they do rather than what they say, because expectations are very low as to what they will actually do. because they did so much last time, and a recent survey of economists by bloomberg suggested september will be the next date for big action. does that tie-in with your thinking? christian: we agree. this meeting, very little new information. if anything, things look perhaps slightly better in terms of the outlook. so the urgency to do more is probably reduced at this meeting. the june meeting, we do get new
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forecast. that could be a trigger. that they will reflect the march easing announcement, so they should reflect something by september. we get to the stage where the quantitative easing program only has six months to run. so it might be time to announce an extension. and we have the first holds role a cheap for your lending copper has negative interest rate. if that disappoints, perhaps they will sweeten it a little bit by cutting the main rate over the coming meetings. more by we will know september. a crisis or two in the meantime. there is been quite a bit of criticism of the european central banks, even covertly by wolfgang and others. do you see that point of tension as something that will have a material impact, or has it always been there in the background, is rumbling on? we still have 2011-2012 in the back of our
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minds. whenever germany and the ecb were not singing from the same and marketstensions reacted nervously. when they did agree on something, the fiscal and banking union, then it cannot. it is the two at loggerheads, that is not good news. germany does not really have the leverage over the ecb, because there are no countries knocking on the door for bailouts at the moment. so i do not think it will have much of an interest on the monetary policy. it seems to be driven by domestic policies, the g-20 meetings as much as real concerns about the impact of negative interest rate on german papers. anna: we have a talk about helicopter money and the possibility thereof. we will do that later on the program. christian stays with us. up next, will turkey's central bank governor cut rates stepping into the role? and speaking of central bank
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chiefs, we will be talking to the former bank of england governor. that is at 9:00 u.k. time. what will he had to say about the resilience of the u.k. economy? and that crucial brexit debate? ♪
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anna: welcome back. 6:30 in london. 7:30 in brussels. 1:30 in the afternoon in hong kong. we have the bloomberg first word news. reasserting his status as republican fter a biger as have bi win, saying that ted cruz does not like new york or new yorkers. hillary clinton off a big win over bernie sanders in the democratic race. she was expected to do well, having twice been elected senator. sanders had won seven of the
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last eight contests. japan's bond yield at a record low, meaning that it now yields less than 0.4%. the negative rates seeking positive yields in this period. governor kuroda says he does not think quantitative or qualitative easing has reached the limit. signaling left an appetite for adding monetary stimulus, this ater evidence after forecast by private economist. tonwhile, a record 192 days collect payments for goods and services. this is a figure which was 125 days five years ago. and it is a way for to increase pay debt.ompanies to the fbi has admitted it cannot access data on hundreds of seized mobile phones because of encryption. the revelation is coming as bureau officials inquired about
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law enforcement and the phone makers, while the fbi dropped the claim over the encrypted iphone use by one of the san bernardino terrace, there has been a legal standoff over access to a drug dealer's phone. it, too, was denied. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, located in just over 115 use bureaus around the world. very much. you let us check the market action with nejra. you are talking about silver on the move again. but itup about 1% today, is enabled market -- of more than 20% from a recent low. the white line is the price of silver on this chart. it had the best return of any metal in the bloomberg commodity index this year. and there are signs that the bull run actually has legs.
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the one thing holding the ishange trade back by silver a near record of what this chart is also showing that last week on money managers increased the net long positions i 30%. those are the blue-gray lines you see on the chart. these money managers are the most bullish on silver ever. so silver having a bit of a good time at the moment. yesterday was a good and day for commodities, because we saw the best rally since august, looking at the lumber commodity index. it measures returns rather than prices. the gains, as you can see, rebounded there from the january low. driven partly by a weaker dollar and partly on optimism about china. today, the index coming little bit off the high, as you can see at the end of the white line there. oil trading lower today, after kuwaiti workers in a strike that had been giving some upward momentum to prices for the past
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couple of days or so. and we are seeing a bit of a softer trade in asian equity markets, looking at the msci asian-pacific come easy the blue line coming off the high there. it is still commodity shares that are actually the best performers on this index though. and finally, we have to talk about japan. what is happening here is that negative rates have been pushing investors to hunt for yields in longer debt. what we have seen today is that bond yield fall to a record low. you see that on the white line there. not only that, but the sovereign bond yields are below 0.4%. we heard the bank of japan's governor tell lawmakers today that want to take it and quantitative easing are not necessarily reaching the limit. perhaps this is on speculation of more of that. anna: yes, at the same time rolling up helicopter money. thank you, decision day for turkey. it is going to be his first
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meeting in charge of the central bank since taking over since yesterday. we are in istanbul. good to have you on the program. what can we expect the new governor to do, not long the job? cut is definitely expected. but the big unknown is by how much? byt economists surveyed bloomberg expect a cut in the upper bank by 50 basis point. and otherssident an are calling for deeper cuts, arguing it will boost economic growth. so the big question is, will it come to political pressure? if he cuts the upper bank by much more than expected, this could put his credibility on the line. and also, affect the attractiveness of the lira. it has gainedar, 3% against the dollar, compared to 20% loss in 2015. anna: there were tensions, shall
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we say, between the previous bank governor and the government in turkey. the political leadership, what can we expect from the new leader of the central bank in terms of monetary policy? and strengthened lira falling bond prices could give them more room to cut going forward, if these trends continue. he can also change the unorthodox monetary policy of the central bank. right now, it uses a corridor. and the former governor said this could be simplified, so turkey to gradually just have one main benchmark rate. overall, this is one of the hardest job in central banking. by theimmense pressure president to keep on cutting rates. but also from having to protect the independence of the central bank. anna: a tough job. simin joining us there from istanbul.
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christian is still with us. there are a lot of tough jobs in central banking, that is facing. that central banking job is tricky because rebalancing some very forthright political views with her own thoughts about where the economy is going. other jobs are difficult because you are playing with new tools. we are in a new role of negative interest rates, all of the boj below zero .4%. touching new lows on interest rates. this new reality, this upside down world, is it going to come up, do you think? or are the interest rates manageable? christian: it is indeed a new world. in banking incts particular, but also in other areas such as insurance. they are not made for this word. policy, there is a lot of transition and friction that we are now observing. in particular, of course in
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terms of bank probability, that is a european problem. as banks deposit, customers deposit, yielding positive rates, and lending rates are coming down. and margins are squeezed in banks. and that is behind some of the concern. anna: with that in mind, i have for this point many times, but a great story on the bloomberg, the danish central bank governor talking recently about how 2015 was the most profitable year for his banking sector in denmark. since the 2008 crisis, and a have a great deal of a spirited negative rights. christian: well, negative interest rates are flat in each jurisdiction. denmark is exempting the central bank from negative interest rates by applying a quantitative easing system to deposits. while europe does not have that system for negative interest rates, they really hurt profitability of the banks, if they cannot pass it on to the customer.
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and if they cannot pass it on to the customer, it is important to think that, over time as negative interest rates become more ingrained, that will be passing on the rate. the central bank policy rate to the customer, and that will then give the more leeway in terms of probability as well. anna: helicopter money is a phrase often used. milton friedman cordoned the term, do you think it has a future? kuroda is talking this morning about how legal hurdles. it isng applied, unless stopped in japan or in europe. it would very much depend on how you define it. christian: i think ultimately what helicopter about is that the central bank effectively deciding fiscal stimulus. which the governments could do themselves, they could just democratically decide to do fiscal stimulus. if weope for instance, get a new recession crisis,
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government's consent to spend more, borrow more. he would get the helicopter money. that's theocratic problem with helicopter money is that the central bank does it, there is no democratic way to do it. unclear ifit is very the ecb could do it. what we have seen over the past there is a loto, of possibility in the european treaty. if they really need it, they really want to, they will probably find a way to do it. is iftely, what matters there is another crisis, we may see that the financial study was has run its course. if they do not do it from the central bank may have to do it. anna: amazing how a crisis can galvanize thinking. saying iton message, would be such a fiscal action, the ecb would be undermined. but a lot of the details would need to be worked out, if anything like that were to be suggested.
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let us just get up-to-date with some the happening over in the japanese session right now. mitsubishi motors, the share price they're plunging. the company will brief on in proper fuel tests, that is the headline just crossing the bloomberg right now. not a great deal of detail behind that. but as we get more on that, we will bring that to you. shares down as much as 70% in today's session. that is clearly a story that is gripping the japanese market. we willon the program, be talking about oil and emerging markets. join exclusively by the ceo of europe's biggest phosphate fertilizer reduce. withwill be sitting down that ceo, coming up.
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welcome back. this is countdown. looking in a live shot of new york there, the empire state
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building reflected the drama that took place in the city overnight. it is 6:44 in london. 7:44 and. . let us get to hong kong. he has an update for us. >> thank you so much. turnaround plan, just shy of $89 million. low expectations been by about 1.5%, investors of course really have a focus on what is going on with the sales process. according to people familiar with the, saying that the growth equity firm, the holdings among the first rounds of bidders or the core internet business. intel cutting 11% of the workforce, heading for a fifth year of decline. we have 12,000 jobs like the come under the hammer, as intel switches to hire focus areas connectedternet devices. forecasting second-quarter sales
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dipping to $13.5 billion. about 5% below the analyst thinking year. goldman sachs, morgan stanley, jpmorgan, they have one thing in common. all plenty to be the best deal makers the first quarter of 2016. it has really been stronger than this year, earnings on takeovers have been holding up very well against the background of trading and underwriting stocks of aonds being in somewhat slump. and that is your bloomberg business flash. have a great day. anna: thank you very much. president barack obama will touchdown in saudi arabia later, on a trip he hopes will help mend relationships between the countries. he spoke to charlie rose about the ongoing efforts to fight terrorism and tensions with other countries in the middle east over events in syria. president obama: i think there are many in the middle east who would prefer me taking a shot. but the reason is not because of some abstract notion of redline. the reason is because they view
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bashar al-assad as a client state of iran. and their view was, and continues to be to some extent, that what we should be doing is being a very clear military arm -assadanti-iran or anti middle east strategy. and look, iran is an adversary of hours. and if they go after any u.s. assets, if they are threatening us anyway, we will go after them. and they know that. is a horriblesad leader, horrible dictator who is shattered his country. a continues to be our position that we need to get him out of there. anna: and charlie rose's full interview airs tonight at 10:00 london time.
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6:47 in london. the biggest phosphate fertilizer, driven by more than one third since the commodity price low. ryan chilcote is joined by the russian company ceo. ryan: uniquely placed to talk about the business climate right now in brazil. 1/5 of one about quarter of the phosphate imports into the country. that is where i want to kick off the conversation with you. thank you very much for being with us. a short while ago, you said that you think demand for globally fertilizerse will pick up. we have the political instability in brazil. how do you see that affecting things? demand,we talk about
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for us, it is one the best opportunities since last five years to start the season. with available for fertilizers, if you compare today in brazil, compared to the first quarter of last year, they're down 50%. our costs have gone down. also the benefits of brazil that they received since the drop of the oil prices, today's farmer in brazil, economy-wise it is much better. then he used to be, and if you talk about the commodity price, it is still the same. still very good. farmer, big holdings in tozil, is a good time today
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invest in brazil. ryan: opportunity aside, a lot of people would say because you have political instability for a sustained. note of time in brazil, you will see a decline in demand. is that what you expect to happen, a decline in demand? andrey: you talk about political instability, today, it is really hard. what is happening right now, if it can look back for a year, was more or less the same. it was a political crisis. think this instability really can touch the fundamentals of the business and the demand. because we see today from brazil, with the really strong demand -- $355, whererice,
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you see it going? what is the concern, if it is not driven by politics? drives prices in the fertilizer business is soft commodity. we have a sustainable correlation between the basket of what we try -- and fertilizers, a couple of issues. this year, it is quite stable. for soft commodities, and the possible increase on the price of soft commodities, that is a fantastic signal for a farmer to go to the market and by fertilizers. are 30%y, fertilizers cheaper than the first quarter last year. ryan: talk to me about the relationship between the oil price and phosphate fertilizer prices. because the argument goes that the lower the oil price, the
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more money the farmer has in his pocket. and the more you can effectively pry off of them you go to sell fertilizer. is that how the relationship works? andrey: when talk about the cost of production of any good, fertilizer, in the production of wheat and soybean, it varies. but it is about 35-40%. or the prices for oil, labor force for instance, regulation affect on the brazilian currency. and we also see a floor. of course, the farmer may spend much more money on fertilizer or insecticide or some other stuff, which will make is yield more secure and consistent. ryan: give me a number. if global demand is normally
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about 60 million tons a year, where you see it in 2016? rey: i think it is more the same. ryan: about 60 million? andrey: because we saw a drop in brazil last year greek and the reason was a short in the first quarter. a lack of finances, lack of subsidies, which were supposed to begin by the government to the brazil farmers. but today, the money is there. the substance is there. fertilizers are cheaper to the farmer, and we already saw an increase of 20%. ryan: we do not have much more time. quick question. you said you had a good first quarter. what portion of that do you anticipate, or do you think -- the decision of the board --but what should go to the shareholders? andrey: last year, we started to
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pay dividends each quarter. publichink we just made our first quarter results. and i think it is already fantastic results, because we show more than 10% growth in volume in the first quarter of 2016. to the first quarter of 2015, that gives you an idea of them no matter what the price, we will be at offset the margin and secure the margin by just growth of production. conversation that is consuming all of our attention here in the u k, very quick question for you, it is brexit. not only do have a company listed here in london, a russian company listed here. know,u also,, yo you
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have what many consider to be london's most expensive home. where does this brexit conversation fit in? are you at all concerned or worried about brexit? do you think it would be an issue for the u.k. if they were to leave the european union? : i think what is good, in a way, getting away from the euro you have much more stability in terms of economics. that givesmetimes, you more competitive advantages. i'm not saying long-term, but deftly short-term. but this is a decision that england will have to take. ryan: thank you very much. that was the chief executive of europe's largest phosphate fertilizer producer, third-biggest in the world. giving us his insight not just
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into brexit, but also brazil in the political incivility. anna: ryan, thank you very much. ryan chilcote, think you very much. christian to what are you factoring in on the oil price? have commodities bottomed? christian: our first pass do that our forecast do expect to rise, as we find a balance. we also expect them to rise next year. that should drive up headline inflation rates. but underlining inflation rates, which is what central banks look at, cannot be affected that much. so we do still expect the central banks to continue easing monetary policy. of course, if oil is overshooting, if prices go up more, perhaps there will be somewhat less easing going forward. anna: christian, thank you very much for spending this last hour with us. 6:56 in london. up next, hillary clinton and
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donald trump when the new york presidential primary. but with the party nomination now a done deal, we'll talk more about mitsubishi motors. share prices plunging, talk about improper fuel management. details, coming up this morning. ♪
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anna: ending the losing streak. trump and hillary clinton when a day your primaries allowing the front runners to reassert control over their fight for presidential nomination. plungehe motors shares as the company is to brief the media on the improper handling .f tests london on the line. boe governor mark carney says the decision in the financial system -- the eu. the slide in seven weeks. .hina's stocks tumble stimulus on the back of an improving economic outlook. ♪
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anna: welcome to countdown. 7:00 in the morning here in london. i am and the london -- i'm anna edwards. news courtesy of the chip designer on holdings. a little bit ahead of the estimates. they are talking about profit before taxing 112 million pounds. t1 processor royalty revenue up in dollars by 15% year on year. they say normalized revenue number. forive you that, 276 points -- 276.4. the slowdown in apples numbers. could that impact on the first quarter royalty numbers coming weekgh from this company?
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numbers for pcs and smart phones. story, wehinese macro are seeing some fascinating revelations about the slowing of s.e chinese market barclays talking about smartphone concerns. they are saying in terms of their royalty revenues, in dollar terms up by 15%, stopping 2016 with a current technology gaining share in target and market. .alking positively there let's talk about where these markets are heading. we have a picture coming through in these -- and the asian sector. the u.s. stocks edged up a little bit. looking at the futures, they will be a little bit weaker trade.g at the european
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uncertainty coming through in the asian market. by 3% to 5%be down on the european major indices. weakness or a mixed picture in asia. some of the weakness coming through on the shanghai market. comments from the pboc about they are going to be working on supporting growth, but they also want to pay attention heading off macro risks. what does that mean? they go 4% lower. 39.99. the $40 per barrel mark. they are really on a tear. it was up in the first hour of our broadcasting here it it has been extending gains and it's a bull market run. -- it's bull market run. let's get the first word news with eve on man. -- we yvonne man.
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yvonne: executives are to brief -- thata on improper conference is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. the city of london should expect an imminent role in the global financial system to fade if britain leads the european union. britainthe governor -- leaves the european union. so says the governor of the boe, mark carney. leaving the eu would diminish that. japan's forty-year yield has fallen to a record low, meaning all japanese sovereigns all yield less than 0.4%. negative rates have pushed -- boj governor kuroda says he does not think quantitative and qualitative easing have a reached their limit. china's central bank is signaling less of an appetite
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for adding monetary stimulus. there has been a wave of upgraded forecasts by private economists. chinese companies a record 192 days -- for goods or services. that is up from 125 days years ago. he wait for payment increases the risk that the firm will not be able to pay their debt. the fbi has admitted it can access data on hundreds of these mobile phones because of encryption should that revelation came as a bureau official appeared before a government inquiry. the fbi dropped the claim against apple over an encrypted iphone used by one of the san bernardino shooters, there is an illegal standoff over age of dealers phone. that china asked for encryption, but it too was denied.
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global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . let's look about politics. donald trump and hillary clinton have one there presidential primaries ending losing streaks. hillary clinton pledged to defend what she calls american values. >> we are going to see our family's safe and our country strong. we are going to defend our rights. civil rights, voting rights, workers rights, women's rights, rights and -- lgbt rights for people with disabilities. [applause] those are after all new york values, and they are american values. anna: megan murphy has more. less that of any demographic campaign. about demographic
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campaign. it mattered, didn't it? megan: it matters a lot. clipan hear it in that riffing on new york values. ted cruz poked fun at them. she needed a big win. she got it. it will solidify her march toward the nomination more importantly, it stops the momentum. it looked like he was a bit -- in termsin the of the number of primaries he won in a row. anna: we heard trump talking about he thinks there is not a competition for the republican nomination anymore. is he as close as he thinks he is? megan: he is gotten a lot closer.
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he became the only candidate with a huge win last night. now is governor kasich and the ted cruz will getinue to try and delegates to prevent him from locking it up. he is the only one who can deduce that. into next week, we headed to california with those three people still in contention. with donald trump the clear favorite. murphy, our washington bureau chief with the latest from new york. the events there. let's bring in our next guest, valentijn van nieuwenhuijzen. we are very pleased to have you on set. talking about the u.s. and the political landscape how much -- how much is an uncertainty playing into your strategy? valentijn: it is a bit too far
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away. i think it is pretty clear what is happening right now in terms of market. it is only going to be potentially if you get a shift in probability after actually winning the election. far, -- anything that is making some sense, it seems like -- markets are probably pricing that in here it is a bit far out for us, but i do think it is a more impactful election than we have had in three decades. there is potential impacts on the market. attica this is a big uncertainty what happens in the u.s. election. -- anna: this is a big uncertainty, what happens in the u.s. election. the past is really easy to understand. you have been reminding us that is not exactly the case. yeartijn: i cannot recall
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-- as not start our year you start thinking about it, is it so much more uncertain than the year where russia invaded crimea? when we had our fiscal clear? into the 1990's, when we had all of these other uncertainties, asian crisis, russia crisis. the potential collapse of the eurozone. this is part of our lives. it is an uncertain world. anna: investing is all about harvesting returns from uncertainty. when he see breaking opportunity to capture that uncertainty? opportunityyou see to capture that uncertainty? if you look across market, it is relatively high. that growthealize is not a spectacular.
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-- is not spectacular. premium.ble risk even if there is not an acceleration of growth. the easy outcomes is high-yield of emerging markets. that or real estate. anna: you are not looking to be itirely -- when you cash or and you look at all of these -- when you cast your eye. risktijn:: all the small -- at the margin looking to add in equities if we see a the green shoot in the emerging world. we are seeing some science -- some signs of life. anna: if we see further commodity prices, does that bode
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for emerging markets? completely ands greater context here. -- it is completely a greater complex here. if commodity prices move up, if currencies strengthen, it helps growth in that region. our financial condition, you need emerging world at their easiest level. indeed, this is helping out to brighten growth prospects in emerging for sure. anna: does it make sense that we have a link between equity markets and energy markets right now echo this chart -- right now? this chart here doesn't go back all that far it we could go back further. these as that last is moving in lockstep. valentijn: it doesn't make sense in the long run. this is always a bit of a risk if you are too focused on short-term concerns.
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we get easily confused or deceived by them. sure, at really low levels there was risk of a negative impact into default and energy space. that was affecting sentiment in equities and we had many years where the relation was far less tight. stay in the 40we to 50 range for oil, probably this correlation will start to fade. anna: you talk about adding risk to your portfolio. in the of -- portfolio in terms of equities. what equities will you be looking for? valentijn: we would be looking for a stick that's for a cyclical stance. -- for a cyclical stance. i.t. is a candidate. mom -- maybe not the first one.
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there is signs of global trade coming back. those are potential candidates. anna: the earnings season, has anything stood out? something you have to get involved with because the performance is better than you thought it would be? valentijn: not yet. the margin is maybe better. the majority is a week trading income. not yet a clear message. we do think this will be the bottom. effect. i don't think that could create another push for equities. this is one of the key things we are looking for the next couple of weeks. having a really positive message out of earnings. anna: some people say you cannot get a real push out of equities once again ellis you get the banks on the side. -- unless you get the banks on the side.
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valentijn: i have played a role on the negative side earlier this quarter. only't think it can be the one. in bigger factor is the e.m. commodity. everything that is linking to debt. the short squeeze will occur. if the momentum continues, a lot of people will realize i cannot stay short of these sectors. anna: even now. we have had a decent rally. some mining stocks for example. you don't think that is done. we will see a bottoming in these energy markets. valentijn: i don't think it is done. ofare pushing information equity fund managers. it seems to be they are neutral at best. is -- if this persists, it will be squeezed. us just thega joins
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vico -- valentijn van nieuwenhuijzen joins us here it brexit -- joins us. brexit building. what would easing mean for that come -- for the countries housing market? that is next. ♪
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anna: welcome back. this is countdown. you're looking at a live shot of london. the ftse will open on the back of those -- down half of percent . still 40 minutes or so until we get there. let's get that schlesinger what is happening with markets in asia. -- let's check out what is happening in the markets in asia. is now thatertainly
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we have a training session in japan. --to be she falling 14% onsubishi motors is the test testr fuel economy involving japan's cars. and now thesever tests are related to the data on those tires. the president as well as executives will be briefing reporters later on in the morning and the u.k. they are going to be briefing on the handling of the field test. now down on the stock -- handling of the fuel test. now down on the stock. if you look ahead, a pretty red picture here. things looking negative thanks to crude. that has fallen in the asian session as well as china. a tanking 4% right now extending
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the losses as well as the biggest drop we have seen in seven weeks. we are not sure what is triggering this. there is some speculation that we could be seeing a january plunge once again. after we saw in march quite a , the shanghai composite rallying some 12%. this is how it looks today as we head into the afternoon break. we saw it dropping off a cliff. 14.2% down. that is not looking good. better data outlook in china as goldmant to mention sachs and other banks raising their gdp forecast. they see growth at 6.6%. it is up from 6.4% previously. is theyal from the pboc have less appetite for monetary stimulus. anna. anna: specifically talking about
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how they want to pay attention on heading on macro risks. signaling a bit of a change of direction from the chinese central bank. yvonne: man joining us -- yvonne man joining us. -- he pointed to brexit as the most significant risk to financial stability. mr. carney also defended the bank of england's analysis of the issue. he says it does not matter the influence. >> major risk does not become this does not mean becoming involved in politics. however it would be political to -- whicho suppress influence our policy actions. anna: also speaking on the set out whyhael go he feels the u.k. should leave
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euro zone. leave would beo the beginning of something more exciting. the democratic numeration. -- the democratic liberation. if we leave, we would've saved our country by exertion and lead by example. anna: a president to be set by the u.k. next line joining us now is killian hurley. great to have you on the program could list about brexit because are using this as something that the eu is putting off international investors? is is something that is weighing on the market? how does it look to you? killian: it is an interesting time. from our perspective, we look at
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the fundamentals of supply and demand. we think more investors do the same thing. 12 months ago with the u.k. election, with scottish d ofpendence, a huge perio uncertainty, i think people are used to dealing with uncertainty. anna: are people putting clauses in about brexit? killian: on the schemes we are in. anna: homes under construction slumped by 33% in the first quarter here at bloomberg. is that something you are seeing? killian: it is not. i think we just got back to the fundamentals. we work in partnership with some leading housing associations in london. that gives us the resilience to back ourselves. we think buyers are looking for
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well priced properties. we are fortunate we have those things in london. anna: you think you outperform the rest of the market? killian: i think so. buyers are more discerning and we welcome that. i couple of years ago, less discerning. now they are paying more -- a couple of years ago, less discerning. now they are paying more attention. designa huge emphasis on . anna: you have been offering discounts to investors? killian: we haven't. if someone came to us at the start of this game, we could look at giving them a discount did they save -- them a discount . they save 5% or 6% in finance or market. anna: good to get that corrected. is on thel election cards here in london. what difference can that make?
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for housingsed test for housing -- for housing. killian: we are pleased that housing is so high up on the agenda. what we would like is when the rhetoric is done, all the votes are counted, we get pragmatism rather than dogmatism. inhave a major problem london that needs to be addressed. .nna: you encourage landowners killian: we are having a shift a way from the delivery of affordable housing in london back to land owners in terms of inflated land prices. anna: killian, great to have you on the program. killian hurley, the ceo. 7:26. that is it for countdown. we bring you an interview with bank of england's governor, mervyn king.
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we discover his new book and much more it on the move is next. equity markets, we're expecting things to be on the flat side when we start trading here in europe. i will see you tomorrow. ♪
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>> welcome to on the move. it is 7:30 in london. we are counting you down to the european open. i am caroline hyde with hans nichols. here is what we are watching. shanghai slide. chinese stocks tumble as the pboc signals less of an appetite. s.a.p. back on track. the european tech giant -- after a sluggish start. we will speak to the cfo in an interview shortly.


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