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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  April 26, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT

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>> asian stocks fall for the third year as the fed and boj await decisions this week. calls for more action from the japanese central bank. majoromes the first oil to later and may post its first loss since the disastster. bundesbank talks brexit. a move to leave the eu would hurt the pound and the eu -- and the u.k. economy. anna: the very warm welcome to
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"countdown" everyone. let us start with some breaking news. let us go to scandinavia. we have first-quarter numbers coming through from the scandinavian lender. they are talking about their net krone.numbers at 4.31 that looks to be ahead of estimates. around the broader operating conditions they see week stock market producing lower commission in comfort that is a backward kind of statement about the previous quarter. they talk about q1 net interest coming in at 5.2 one billion krone. they talk about increased lending volume and a lower market interest rate weighing on their net interest income. that is interesting because we had diverted views regarding these numbers.
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divergent numbers regarding these numbers. through has increased 2015 and that would make life tough for this business. they have a new ceo. she is said to be talking to us 9:20 a.m.oomberg at u.k. 10. frome also getting numbers the aerospace and defense industry. first quarter adjusted revenues rising by 7.8% year on year. the outlook is confirmed. with adjusted revenue increased single-digit numbers. 5%. adjusted revenue up by 6% year on year on an organic basis.
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i don't see any mention of a bid on zodiac. aerospace supplier be going after another french aerospace supplier in the shape of a zodiac bid. we were reporting at the end of last week as something in the works. droppedrs after saffron an offer for the french business. we will wait and see if we get anything more on that. let us tell you what else you need to be aware of here on the markets. a reminder perhaps to my right on the bloomberg the guiding force the fed could be this week depending on what they choose to say. auto,the end of 2015, the the changes in fed policy and how they have led equity markets in the white and currency markets here in the blue. the fed changing the stand -- their stance.
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asia trading weaker yet again today, a third day down for japanese stock markets. we are ahead of the boj -- boj meeting. corporate profits are peaking due to the strong yen. let us look at the risk radar. in terms of further easing this week. look at the oil prices. bp will be reporting later today. resuming gains, up both on wti and rent -- brent. datat the u.s. stockpiles tomorrow. good morning from hong kong. the ringgit has fallen after 1mdb has confirmed a limited default.
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they are withholding a $50 million interest payment dispute. abu dhabi international petroleum. 1mdb says it has the money but it is international petroleum's obligation to pay. the economic advisor for the japanese prime minister wants action when the boj meets later this week reflecting rising pressure on the center -- central bank. risk of hitting that project additional easing from the boj this week. longer haveanies no the ironclad support of the government. that is bad news for the equity will market in hong kong. ubs. partly owned by the state. ubs has cautioned at the end of
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implicit government support will drive up funding costs and undermine foreign investor confidence. brazil has taken another step towards impeaching its president. anators have elected committee that will recommend whether to oust her. -- comers come across from across the spectrum, they have 10 days to make a recommendation to the full senate. britain leaving the european andn would hit the pound the u.k. and that is according to the bundesbank board member. he spoke to bloomberg's mark barton. >> there will be a consequent on on foreign exchange rate and economic development and investment in the united kingdom. challenge for the united kingdom should effectively happen. i am expecting it to be
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considerable. in the short, medium, and long run. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . let us focus in on bp. bp may announce its first loss since the oil spill when it reports in an hour. the first of the world's oil majors. likely to be an indication of how others will perform. ryan chilcote is our oil reporter. let's talk about the oil price. the oil story is not entirely new. why is the market expecting such poor numbers? ryan: the drop in the oil prices
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are starting to get born out for the oil producers. that is what we are likely to see this quarter. no-brainer part of looking at bps earnings -- we have seen the crude price dropped erratically. the first quarter, the average price for a barrel, was $35 of there'll. the lowest we have seen in 12 years. to you have the graft there you're right that demonstrates that. that is also a drop year on year from first quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. $35 a barrel.o repeat share price follows the share price-- bp follows the price of crude pretty closely. refining margins. they have been the safety net
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and the natural hedge for the crude producers. they tend to do well when oil prices are low. in the first quarter of this year, many think we had an imperfect storm when we had mild weather in the u.s., not as cold as it could have been in the same thing in europe and less demand for heating fuel. refining margins had been the bright spot. ryan: the main story is bad and the hedge is bad. hence the expectations. anna: eric, on the broader picture around oil prices. we have a lot of conversations about supply whether it is u.s. supplied, or russian supply running at high levels. you are focusing on the demand story. on stream asoming well. that is all clearly part of this acture but if you go back
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couple of years, $120 a barrel. hurt bp. was on the process demand side and not on the supply side. fromd particularly coming china. a hard landing for china. combined with the impact that had on other emerging economies accounted for over half of the falling oil prices. the pickup on the end of the chart is not all that little. in percentage terms, it is 30% across the year. $10. attributedt also is in large part to china. be on thehina may turn having bottomed out.
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anna: we want to talk about rising debt. #anything that will catch us off guard? the first quarter of this year, while the oil price picked up what also happened is that it was very volatile. it was the most volatile that we have seen since 2011. any kind of volatility means an opportunity for traders. what a lot of people don't realize is that they have trading arms. it has done wonderfully on occasion for bp. for example, in the first quarter of last year, when of the reasons why bp may struggle when it comes to the compared is your on year, we had a very volatile oil price. bp does not -- break out its numbers from
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trading, but they did say that they made $350 million more than their average. look at the analysts numbers, the expectation is that the company will lose about a quarter of a billion dollars this quarter, the first loss since the spill. 2-12 of the analysts think there could be a prophet. the reason for that is because those guys almost certainly think that trading might come in and save the day. anna: it will come down to the big number. in and around 50 minutes time. did they make a profit? -- the sharece price performance of bp. it made the point that it has underperformed since the start of the year. there does seem to be some concern regarding payout by bp in relation to the rest of the
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sector. ryan: it will be interesting to see what they have to say about the dividend. it is important for the company to defend the $.10 share quarterly dividend. look at the share price. havef the reasons why they underperformed as investors are most concerned about its ability to pay the dividend out of all of the major oil companies. the dividend yield is the highest for bp. bob dudley last quarter and since then has made it clear that their priority is to defend that dividends. the reality is that at today's oil prices they can do that. at one point though candidate point can they not? anna: what signal will they give you about the safety of the future of that?
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our focus shifts across the atlantic a little bit. as the feds today policy meeting gets underway. u.s. durable goods orders will be headline numbers. we will also the looking at the race to the white house with primaries in maryland, pennsylvania, and other eastern states. apple, ebay, and twitter all reporting later today. navigatingindustry negative rates? we will have that conversation up next. ♪
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anna: welcome back. you are watching "countdown". the markets on the hang seng are
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a little bit weaker today. in good company across the asian session. we are a little bit weaker in today's trade. to sheba has posted -- toshiba has posted a wider than expected loss. $6.2 billion. in the 12 months ending last month. the troubled conglomerate wrote down the value of its westinghouse power unit. of thegen pulls ahead global deliveries during the first quarter. fell in worldwide sales the january through march timeframe. the japanese automaker rein on
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top of the auto industry sales charts. group has won $839 billion australian submarine contract. malcolm turnbull says the french offer represents the capabilities best able to meet australians needs. -- australia's needs. mounting legal costs. deutsche bank has conflict on its supervisory board. the deputy chairman accused of being overzealous and they are investigating potential wrongdoing. 12 billion euros since 2012 for their legal costs. shares have tumbled more than 25% this year. that is your bloomberg business flash. let us talk about the banking sector. swedbank has beaten estimates. later this morning, another bank
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is scheduled to release its statement. eric is joins us and still with us on set here in london. of numbers one set from the banking sector this morning, swedbank. profits stagnating in the last quarter. a new ceo taking to the helmet. how has the swedish bank in coping? >> pretty well. rates isem of negative interest margin pressure and reinvestment pressure. your choice is to go for commission income. -- miss on revenue. the credit cycle, there is no credit loss at the moment. and growing loans. pretty much in line with expectations. the issue is that you have a well-capitalized bank and it continues to reintroduce
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requirements. it is trading on a dividend of seven. no growth. it has a tough regulator. anna: you say well-capitalized. this applies to the sector as a whole? of the are the weak link four. relative to the wider european set, they are well-capitalized. and there 1991 crisis are also liquidity concerns. we have some sound from a current interview that just took place yesterday evening. it bundesbank board member talking to bloomberg about the european banking sector. negative rates is a story for all parts of your. he said european banks are so far managing to deal with the negative rates situation.
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>> in principle, they are coping reasonably well but clearly, we have challenges. because we had a crisis in the eurozone and we are still working on solving some of those. anna: what are your thoughts on negative rates? the banking sector is facing challenges as a result. feeling reasonably well. i don't buy that. in sweden.difference and europe in the round. sweden is growing and doing quite well in a macro sense. providing an in -- an environment where the banks can do well. the problem with negative rates is it makes it even harder for the banking sector to make profit. if you are in a low growth
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environment, as they are in europe, both of those forces are acting in a downward pressure. sector is way underwater. if you look at the performance of european ranking equities compared to the u.s., they are absolutely -- anna: we have a lot of turnaround stories. how much do you lay at the feet of negative rates? >> we are getting new restructuring stories all the time. barclay is up -- is a perennial story. asset management sales. and also, clumsy provisions. most of these things cannot continue. my concern is that if this environment continues we really do struggle as a sector to see
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any momentum and we may even go backwards, particularly if you have regulatory costs going up quarter on quarter. anna: a new ceo. another turnaround story. different dynamics from the other europeans you mentioned. what are we looking out for here? >> it is hard to understand the -- businesshis nest map. 25% interest income year-over-year. and cost management is key. we need to see some delivery on that. we also need to understand billion as asaid 3 restructuring charge. is that the right number? do they need to put a few more bad loans in a different category. they have 50 billion left in
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china. there are still plenty of things to worry about. the have done plenty of good things. that is why they rallied from february lows. anna: what about the capital position? the intensive care they have been giving to the business. raising cash. scrapping the dividend. job cuts. >> goes back to the end game. 50 billion of china and 30 billion of india. do we need to take more were dress for that. for that. we don't know what the profits will be. anna: this is a business that has always been more about emerging markets. asia's pacific league. what you said about china be music to the years -- to the
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ears. >> the important thing about that is that the process of deviation looks to us like it is just about stopped and may be about to turn. eight buto seven or maybe four or five which would be good news for commodity exporters and any banks that are exposed to to that economy. anna: not good news for the restructuring of china. >> they are doubling down on the same bet that they put into place. more residential real estate construction. al of that stuff which means short space of growth. maybe a year or two co which everyone can profit from it down the line, your exposures are worse. anna: i don't know if that makes me feel any better. thank you there he much.
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-- very much. we will be talking about earnings and take the pulse on the employment market. ♪
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welcome back, this is "countdown". datas give you the latest or information about what is happening with mitsubishi motors. the focus because of the scandal surrounding this carmaker. they will be doing a press briefing. there will be a press briefing. another down day for this shares of that company. down by 9.4%. today's trading session. also be aware that the nikkei agency is reporting that mitsubishi may have been using
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the wrong tests for many years. let us bring things back to europe and talk about some breaking news. we have numbers coming through labor in germany. on focus is going to be cyclical parts of the business and on the new company structure. that sales coming in at 11.9 elgin euros. 12.1 billionf the euros estimated. that number looks to be ahead of estimates. continuing operations looks to be ahead of estimates as well. the ebit number looks to be ahead as well. blockbuster drug in the pipeline
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which could be a weak spot for this business according to analysts at bloomberg attended -- bloomberg intelligence. bayer is not just drugs. ceo whoe named a new will be taking over at the end of this month. a lot to learn about the new leadership of that business. ebit.rning the let us go on to the french telecom's missed. they recently abandoned their bid to buy a phone unit, the talks failed. let us see what the company has to say for itself. they restated their numbers. continuethat they will to have a selective acquisition policy confirming their target in restated ebit growth 2016. no discussions with kpn.
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a lot of conversations regarding that lieegic options ahead. the ceo said the company will continue with selective acquisition policy saying they are not having any discussion group.n or zane lostrench telecom market out on that opportunity to consolidate a bit which is some people have been talking about as needed so they have more pricing power. let us get back to hong kong. pricing is up here in asia but the ringgit has fallen. it is in amed limited default on the default. abu dhabi fund which is the guarantor of the bond maturing. in 2022.
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1mdb says it has the money. the economic adviser to japan's prime minister wants to see action from the boj when it meets this week. comments reflect rising pressure on the central bank as recent data shows growing breasts. -- growing risks. backed companies the longer has the iron -- have the ironclad backing of the government. so says ubs. ubs has cautioned that the end of implicit government support will drive up funding costs and undermine foreign investor confidence. brazil has taken another step towards impeaching is president. senators have elected a committee.
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it will recommend whether to oust her. its members come from across the political spectrum. they have 10 days to make a recommendation. says au.s., donald trump deal between his republican issidential competitors collusion and shows they are desperate. haveruz and john kasich each agreed to not actively compete in some states. the deal does not apply to the five northeastern states that vote later today. donald trump goes into the primaries still short of the required delegates needed to avoid a contested convention. hillary clinton is looking to extend her lead over bernie sanders. in connecticut, rhode island, and maryland among others. global news 24 hours a day
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powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: let us bring things back. reported revenue in line with estimates as it sees conditions improving in europe. joining us from amsterdam is the ceo. it is great to have you on the program. let us talk about the statement about conditions improving in europe. how much are conditions improving and what is the evidence? >> good morning. this was a pretty good quarter. europe has started to contribute. see france and germany doing relatively well. france growing by 9% and germany growing by 6%. toh countries has started grow up through eight quarters
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of negative growth. the underlying segments, it is clearly the manufacturing segment that is supporting this growth. in france, we are also seeing the construction sector providing nice opportunities. anna: in the first quarter of the year, many people were worrying about a global recession in manufacturing. the you think that the central bank, the ecb needs to do+++
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to stimulate the euro zone economy. or is the job done? >> i don't know if that will provide any further help. it is extremely complex. the economic forecasting is almost impossible. we have built an economy that is very agile and can adjust to any circumstances in the local market where we operate. it is highly uncertain. if you compare the last 10 quarters in which we have seen low single-digit growth going up to 6% or 7% growth, that is the for we are in the dark. anna: i take your point about being in the dark. what can you tell us about your performance in the u.s.? what about the labor market? a big focus on wages and what kind of sustainable wage growth we are seeing in the u.s. >> in the u.s., we're seeing growth continuing albeit at a lower level. the comparables were tougher. we see the manufacturing sector in the u.s. continuing to provide growth. transportation and logistics as somecombined with inflation, low single digits that has kicked in a few quarters ago. that continues. if we look into the first
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indications of the second order, we also see growth continuing albeit more in the staffing ande which is blue-collar clerical people rather than the professional space. m&a: what about your strategy? you have been talking to local newspapers about your strategy wanting to growth through acquisitions. what kinds of things you want to buy and what is the timeframe? >> we have a few targets. we would love to increase our footprint in the staffing space in a few markets. on thevery much focused countries where we operate, 39 countries. we would like to grow in the professional segments, people with a bachelor or master education and a few years of experience. we have an ambition to expand
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their. we just acquired a company in the first quarter in the nordics market, in scandinavia which brings us a staffing footprint as well as an existence in the professional space. and acquisition of almost 200 million euros. that is what we are aiming at, this kind of acquisition. anna: do you want to buy anything in the u.k.? with the possibility of a brexit put you off? >> that is a good one. in the u.k., we have improved step-by-step book we are not where we want to be. that is an important condition. we want to make sure we have a in a countryce before we expanded through acquisition. the u.k. will be on our agenda but likely later. the brexit is something that
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does worry us. unionthink the european brings great benefits. anna: thank you for joining us. our apologies about the quality of that line. the cfo of britain's largest retailer has said the upgrades to the credit outlook was a first step on the way back to investment grade. when we came into the business 18 months ago, we took stock of where we were. we wanted to improve the u.k.,itiveness in the strengthen the balance sheet, and restore trust and transparency. we have made good progress in all of those. we were equally clear that the issue of whether -- of how we were rated was one for the credit ratings.
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over time, we would want to be an investment grade issuer. and it was something we did not have control over. we have made significant progress. we recently had a minor upgrade from one of the agencies. the first step. we are committed overtime to becoming an investment grade issuer. >> how far in the journey of regaining investor confidence are you? investors,talked to they understand what we are doing. they understand that the focus on the customer, on the business transformation, and on cash generation within our business is the right thing to do. they recognize that it may take some time. we are a year into it. we have delivered what we set out to do. >> is there any reason why do would not go back to the market
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now? we do have a lot of liquidity. more than 4 billion pounds of cash on our sheet right now. over a billion of majorities in the bond market. we may or we may not. there is no reason why we could wait and but we will see as the year unfolds. it will depend on our position. and thethe flexibility range of options open to us. that was a tesco cfo speaking to guy johnson. this organization has beaten first quarter estimates. the company says it is seeing growth in supplements. ceo from the
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netherlands. this morning, your numbers seem to be better than estimated that you are sticking to your overall guidance. is there a risk to your guidance? do you anticipate beating market expectations? >> absolutely. we are happy with our first quarter. we delivered strong results supported by all businesses. we have a nutrition business that had good organic growth and good margins. and the materials division had robust results. good growth, good margins, and good returns. forward, we are mindful that the macroeconomic environment is still tricky. goodn't feel like one first quarter is enough for us to revise our guidance. we are confident we will deliver on the full-year targets. anna: you mentioned uncertainty
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in the macro environment. asia-pacific in general remains robust. where do you see that weakness in the macro environment? seeing in terms of the geography is clearly latin america remains a bit of a challenge. we have a sizable business in brazil. what we have seen there is the economic growth has been limited. .ecently our animal nutrition business has been holding up so far but the market is getting soft. not mentioning the brazilian riyal has devalued a lot. other areas where we are monitoring is europe in terms of the construction segment for our materials business. twoid better than the last quarters but it still remains pretty soft. anna: what is the key driver?
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is it around nutrition or materials? us andgreat thing for what is encouraging is that both nutrition and materials are on track to deliver in line with the strategy we communicated last quarter. our focus is very much to watch butmacroeconomic carefully focus on our self-help. in this environment, it is our responsibility to make sure we deliver on those programs which include cost savings as well as efficiency improvements and we are well on track to do that. anna: talking about self-help, does it make sense for these two businesses to be under the same stable? some shareholders have expressed concern about whether they belong together. >> what is very encouraging about this quarter and i am pretty sure all shareholders would agree that it is nice that
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the company is successful. the restructuring programs we are running affect the whole company. benefits are coming across all of our different business segments and they are all growth platforms. being centeredon on getting that done and staying on track. anna: all shareholders, are they all on board? i am pretty certain that all shareholders are buying into a 19% growth. that we got this quarter. improvement of 300 basis points as we closed at 9.8. i would hope and expect that our shareholders are not dissatisfied. anna: i am sure many of them are listening. can i ask you about china?
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an area of weakness around the vitamin market their. -- there. >> the dynamic in the vitamin space is quite interesting. last year, we saw white a downward trend. this has reversed. we werearly where thinking that we were in atrophic and we are now seeing an uptick. the spot prices are relating to orders in q3. we lock in prices for longer time frames. we are seeing a positive momentum in vitamins and the benefit if they are maintained will come at some stage that not before the second part of the year and more likely towards the end of the year. anna: great to have you on the program. she is the royalty dsm cfo. up next, the bundesbank talks brexit. the u.k.believe that
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economy would be hurt if they choose to leave the eu. we will be back and talking about the possibility of brexit. and there is a shot of sunrise over london this tuesday morning. ♪
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anna: welcome back. you are watching "countdown". this is new york very late on monday evening. the future is suggesting that we are broadly unchanged. -- macro market agenda. david: good morning. japan, the company has posted a wider than expected operating loss. 690 billion yen.
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in the 12 months ending last march. the troubled conglomerate wrote down the value of its westinghouse power unit. ahead of theulled global deliveries during the first quarter. toyota, worldwide sales falling to 2.4 million vehicles in the january through march timeframe. a series of production stops have threatened the japanese automakers for year reign at the top of the japanese auto market. toshiba is scheduled to hold a news conference. it comes after the nikkei newspaper reported the company may have been using the wrong fuel efficiency tests all the way back to the 1990's. stock is now trading down some 10%. that is your bloomberg's miss
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flash. -- business flash. anna: let us talk about brexit. it would hit the pound and investment in the u.k. according to the bundesbank board member. he spoke to mark barton. there will be a consequence on the foreign exchange rate very likely and a consequence of economic development and investment in the united kingdom. the economic challenge for the united kingdom should it happen i am expecting to be rather considerable. both in the short, medium, and long run. anna: the views their of the bundesbank member. let us talk about brexit. what are you assuming? we have a bloomberg cop as it of what the polling is tell us of
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what is -- we have a bloomberg composite of what the polling is telling us about what will happen. we have president obama's visit also. it looks like that is coming through. i wouldn't say that is a strong conviction. i think that is an exaggeration. is there is a very wide to virgins over -- div egence over those numbers. way we can possibly know that those numbers will be negative. we don't know what the deal we we don'tcarried -- know the deal we will get. anna: can you know about short-term volatility? be uncertainty
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ahead of the referendum. for af timeframe of -- timeframe of up to 10 years. that uncertainty is enough to mean that investment will be weakened. anna: do you see that yet? >> not yet. if the chart was to reverse and it was to start to gain traction and we might vote to leave, i think markets would turn its attention to the fundamental value of sterling. a trap door of sterling. it is larger. that is enough to spook the markets. anna: some of that has to do with what oil is earning overseas. back, u.k. mp will
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be speaking to the pulse this morning. we will be talking about bp earnings when we come back to "countdown." ♪
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anna: asian stocks fall for a third day ahead of fed and doj rate decisions as the economic adviser asks for more action from the central bank. the first oil major, bp, may 1 loss.ts first what insight into the industry we might get. nk votes toiesba leave the eu which would hurt the pound and the u.k. economy. ♪ anna: welcome back to countdown.
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it is just 7:00 in the morning in london. welcome back to the program. we have numbers breaking right now from bp. ryan. go through it with are some big questions like what they make a profit? ryan: they did it because out of the 12 analyst we got estimates from, only two saw a profit. that is what they have done. they have just a net profit which is what everyone watches. $532 million. the estimate was $245 million. they for reassured all investors by saying they will keep the $.10 dividend. they were concerned it could be cut. that is not the case. very strong numbers from bp. obviously, this is a decline in profit year on year. you have the graph to your right. 36% decline in the oil price between the first quarter of last year and the first quarter
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of this year. nonetheless, bob dudley is very happy after a week ago, he awarded himself a 20% rise in pay. he effectively did. 59% of the shareholders said we don't like that. unfortunately for them, they only get to recommend what happens with the pay. ultimately, the power is with the board. we have not seen over the past a bull of minutes if bob dudley will give some of the my back. -- of the money back. anna: more than 59% of the shareholders rejected that pay award. the company pledging they would reconsider. pay clearly one of the big factors here. you were referencing the price we have seen. there was a chance that there could be some good news coming through the goods of the volatility in the third quarter. and the things that were difficult to estimate. ryan: we just got our upstream
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number. 747 million.n at $ that is how much money they made selling oil. a profit of $747 million. you look at that number last year, that is actually an increase year on year in of extreme -- upstream profit which is pretty remarkable given the decline in the oil price that we see. another surprise, and this is getting to your question, the downstream profit. misses before interest and tax -- this is before interest and tax. a slight decrease from 2.1 5 billion year on year and yet margins have been squeezed so much. this natural hedge of the refining side of the business, the downstream side of the business. companiesese big oil when the oil price is falling. maybe it is not as much as a safety net as been in the past,
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but what bp is showing us this morning and this might be indicative of the oil companies, it is not that bad. one of the things we are seeing is the big hiccup in driving in the united states because a gallon of oil is just two dollars a barrel. people are driving like mad. maybe that is driving what we saw in the first quarter. anna: the cost side of things is what they are celebrating a little bit today. you can follow the bp results as they are coming through. according to a statement, lower costs more than offset significantly weaker oil and gas prices. they clearly think they are doing something well on the cost. let's brought in the conversation./ we are joined on set. good to see you from royal london. these numbers are coming through from bp.
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there have been shareholders in bp. give us your thoughts on the energy sector. the profit from bp which was not expected. >> i was looking at the headline numbers. the profit number is much better which is driven by cost which is what we were looking for because they did not deliver last time around. the chairman said earlier last week that he was nervous if the oil price remained at low, they would have to look at the policy. they emphasized that message. we were one of those voices that called for restraint on pay last week and voted against. i'm pleased to see the company focused on the business and the production side of things. it is a pleasing side there. upstream profits in difficult conditions is a positive surprise. anna: bob dudley being optimistic about the global oil market.
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he said the market is coming back into balance later this year. ryan: for longer, but not forever. anna: saying today that market fundamentals continue to suggest the combination of robust the man and week supply will move global oil markets closer to balance by the end of the year. ryan: yet, he remains the cost cutter. we see for the first quarter cap ax at $4 billion on accrued basis. was between $17 billion and $19 billion for this year and next year, saying it should be at the lower end. this suggest they could maintain that or even come in below the $17 billion number. that is what you were looking at. piers: really, it is more about discipline. we were worried that the programs were continuing without any reference to the value.
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we were looking for some discipline. we'll want to lose the future value of the business. there is a constant balance of getting that right and recognizing conditions. i remember in january we were talking about oil prices and we had a two in front of it. we set the last domino to fall was iran coming in line. we are better understanding what the supply dynamic is. understanding that, and the uncertainty being removed, means we are moving back to the balance of supply and demand. interesting to hear his thoughts at the end of the year. i think he is more optimistic. ryan: one thing that is worth pointing out is bp is still relying on a $60 a barrel oil price by when he 17. that is what they read based the company at -- rebased to the company at. if we don't get $60 by the middle of next year, all bets are off and i think bp has to go back to the books and everything would be on the table.
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anna: thank you for your thoughts. piers stays with us. ryan, thank you for taking us through those numbers. we have numbers from the ledger chain in the u.k. they are confident they will achieve their 2020 milestone. it is growing in share in a flat market which is interesting in the context of the u.k. growth story. trading comparisons were impacted. a good startas to the year compared to earlier sales. 2.5%.r inn up total revenue at $2.9 billion. broadly in line, it would seem,
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in terms of those numbers. we are going to be speaking to the ceo of whitbread. that is at 7:30 a.m. london time. she will be joining the on the move team for a conversation around her business. let's take you to banking because we had interesting a business that specializes in banking in africa. they are making a statement in response to the interest in parts of the barclays africa business. in response to recent press barclays62.3% stake in africa, atlas maras says they have had discussions with those seeking acquisition in africa and a potential combination between atlas mara and barclays.
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members include atlas, merchant capital and the mara group. interesting that there has been plenty of talk of whether bob diamond might be interested in taking these assets given it was under his leadership that barclays was aggressively building out its presence in africa. that is some interesting stuff on the legdgedger sector. david joins us now. david: yeah, thank you. after troubled malaysian state funding, it is confirmed limited default on three-quarter notes. there is a dispute between the coal guarantor in 2022. but says it has the money
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it is their obligation to pay. japan's advisers citto prime minister reflects rising pressure on central banks. recent data indicates reaching the 2% inflation target. 56% of economists surveyed by bloomberg suggest additional easing from the doj. a companies no longer have the ironclad support of the government. so says ubs. three of the seven chinese owned by are partly china or the state. governmente end of support would drive funding costs and undermine for investors. to brazil with a country has taken another step towards impeaching the president. they would recommend whether to oust her. its members will come from
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across the political spectrum and have until 10 days to hear the president's defense and make a recommendation to the senate. britain leaving the european union would hit the pound, according addressed -- >> there would be a consequence on the foreign exchange rate and a consequence of economic development and investment in the united kingdom. challenge for the united kingdom, should it happen, i'm expecting to be rather considerable. in the long, medium and short-term. that is bloomberg news four hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists. you can find more stories. anna? anna: i'm sure later on this
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morning, you will find news on the banking sector. thank you. let's give you a heads-up on what is happening in the european futures market. -- 40 just 20 minutes minutes to go until the start of the european equity trading day. we might get a bit of a bounce at the start of the day. although sluggish trading in asia seems to be the name of the game. the japanese currency is a bit of a japanese story. euro stocks should be open for tenths of a percent on the upside. piers is still with us on the set. let's talk about the banking sector. we have this interesting revelation from atlas mara which is exploring a combination with barclays africa. what are your initial thoughts on this possible tie up with bob diamond and the sale of the business? piers: there will be some people
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slightly nervous about selling a business to somebody that was not in it before. i think the management has clearly set out they want to focus on their core elements of the business. basically, that has been set out. this fits with that strategy. i think what we want to see is can they realize these in value from that investment? they were clear under bob diamond's tenure that africa was a really important part of taking advantage of former colonial past and the opportunity it had in english-speaking african bloc. to step back, it will be interesting to see what provisions would have to be taken. anna: what is the concern about selling to somebody who previously, who knows so much about the strengths and weaknesses and can command what they can see as a good price. piers: can you actually realize
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a decent price and there -- is there more than one potential buyer? doesn't mean you will secure the best price. anna: that will be interesting if we get any other expressions of interest in the wake of this revelation. let's talk about the numbers later on today. another emerging market story around the banking sector. one that they have been really trying under the new ceo. piers: the critical thing for us to see is some line in the sand drawn about provisions. it has been incredibly disappointing for shareholders over the last two years. that has come out of the woodwork and continues to. the passing of the dividend last time was a significant shock to long-term holders. any indication as to when a dividend may come back on the radar screen would be seen as a positive. thing more importantly is what the operating operations are
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like in the region. the market has responded to the potential recovery of emerging markets. are they seeing any evidence of improving trading? anna: thank you very much. piers fromthe market has respone potential recovery of emerging world london asset management. up next, whitbread reports growth in their businesses. we take a look at the earnings. ahead, an interview with the ceo half past 7:00. ♪ management.
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anna: welcome back. 20 minutes london is past 7:00. getre suggesting we will stronger at the start of the trading day. is get the bloomberg business flash from david. david: thank you. let's get started with bp. the company reported an 80%
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decline in first earning records, but profit and inventory changes. $532 million dollars. prices continue to slide. alysts expected a loss of almost $245 million. mitsubishi mitt motors is holding a press conference after the nikkei reported the company may have been using the wrong fuel efficiency test all the way back to the 1990's. it marks a down 10%. won $39 dcnf has billion contract to build marine for australia. the estoril in prime minister says the french offer represents the capabilities that meets
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australia's unique needs. that is your bloomberg business flash. back to you. anna: thank you. let's talk about another business that reported at the top of the hour. whitbread reported revenues and a confident about more progress. .oining us right now is andrea give us your first take at looking at these numbers. revenue was broadly in line. they mightthought have announced some kind of strategic review. she will continue to grow and expand the vision. anna: no sign that any of the sales that you have been talking about and other commentators have talked about about being on the radar right now? andrea: not at all. i wonder where the shareholders are going to bring any pressure
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for that. it would seem if you are going to do that, it would be challenging to do it at the moment. anna: maybe wanting to get a bit, her feet under the table longer before announcing anything big and strategic? piers: i think that is right. the challenge as a new chief executive is assessing what you have. you need a good six months to really understand the business that you have and the ability for those going forward. one of the priorities -- where do we need to invest or not invest? quickly looking with a magnifying glass outside the door and seeing how the coffee sector goes with the hotels. it is not unreasonable to ask her where she sees the combinations working. i think stepping aside from that strategic message, what was really important is the barometer of the u.k. economy as
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to whether we are starting to see any parts of the european referendum on economic activity in the u.k. they are saying this is a hotels market which is predominantly where premier operates which has been flat this year. we thought it may be slowing economic activity. they have done alright themselves, but that was an important barometer -- what we are seeing with economic activity to the u.k. anna: it is interesting it is viewed as a barometer. that is the point of your most recent commonententry. what is the logic of selling off the coffee. andrea: it makes a lot of sense. we are going to get there fairly soon. it reminds me of the supermarket when they expanded and expanded when the market was flattening. it would be a good time to
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extract the maximum value before the coffee goes cold. the hotels market, there is a lot of consolidation. you can see some splits. you have the hotel's business. that could be attractive to a global group who are consolidating at the moment. anna: we will be speaking to the ceo of whitbread in about five to 10 minutes. thank you very much, andrea, our columnist in this sector. piers, let's talk a little bit more about the other places you are looking for guidance. stadt.ntioned rancd they were talking about trends coming back into the eurozone market, particularly around manufacturing, germany and france. maybe we fretted too much at the start of the year. piers: i think that is a fair
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assessment. when we're looking at the economic models coming into the year, without some of the growth was optimistic. without the u.s. would lead out of that rather than europe. which is why we were surprised at how weak markets were at the beginning of the year. we were talking about demand both for temporary and full-time staff. i think that is an important differentiation to highlight. we have gotten into industrial reports so we had abb last week, atlas would be another good barometer of where we are with global economic activity. that is important to put into context. if we are starting to see labor demand improving, industrial demand improvement -- we are in the green chute space with it being fundamentally obvious. that raises questions that we are in an environment that expects rates to be cut.
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the last 10 days, it has been interesting to notice the government bond markets which have been very bearish in the beginning of april, we are starting to see longer data rates rise again for the first time. we are still lower than we were at the start of the year. it is quite a tulsa between the market. we are starting to see small cap stocks outperforming. it is almost a sign of a growth. the bond markets are a bit more cautious. anna: it is settling your nerves and it? piers: we are early in the day in the reporting season. often at this stage, you would expect a surprised to come early rather than later. anna: thank you for joining us. it is great to have your report on a whole host of sectors. piers joining us from royal london asset management. for co up by half a percent on the euro
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stocks. maybe some of those gains coming through strongest on the german market. that will do it for "countdown." we will be talking to the whitbread ceo. ♪
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♪ good morning and welcome. .ou are watching "on the move" the weather in london is absolutely beautiful this many. the weather in berlin is terrible. we can draw reasons for this. this is the reason. this is hans nichols. we will be having a great show. we need to talk about what we will be focusing on. bp feeling the pain. only


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