tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 6, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
good afternoon. i am vonnie quinn. here is what we are watching. as the jobs report comes in, traders need to take a step back and analyze the situation. internalslook at the of this employment report, it is mixed. to conclude that quickly that june is completely out of the question and we are unlikely to get a hike in 2016 is going too far. vonnie: u.s. stocks are headed for a down week, but the s&p 500 crossing into negative territory for the year before returning to the green. and it is billed as a market like no other.
what lessons are there for other companies? we are one hour from the close of trading. let's go to julie hyman with the latest. julie: i wanted to mention a headline on consumer borrowing. fastestin march at the pace since november 2001. $29.7 billion. os and credit autio card debt going up. all three major averages rising to the heights of the session. take a look at the trajectory of the s&p 500. it has been all over the place. futures, andine in then we had stocks bouncing around for much of the session, going green around 2:00 p.m. the dow was the first to make that move.
to weigh whatng exactly the jobs report means and it looks like not really coming up with a unanimous decision. if you look at what is contributing to gains right now, you've got amazon bouncing back from some declines to past few days. facebook rising and alphabet. also if you look on the flipside, what is dragging the most, we've got apple going down . it has been almost a straight down the line going back several weeks for apple. walgreensalling and as a. aer to commodities, we've got gain in oil prices. fires in canada are cutting production. for the dollar and the 10-year, you would think we would have some significant movement and
yet here there has been a shrug or confusion from this's morning. the dollar is up slightly. the fact they are going in the same direction has not been that common lately. they have been diverging. vonnie: the dollar has been baffling. companies, they held on to their direction. julie: yes, company specific news has been steady. companies have been rising consistently, hurt and elmer beating estimates, activision blizzard, that videogame company, and a mixed report but analysts say because it is increasing its hiring, the company has a better outlook. has beenwnside, endo the big loser, cutting its forecast and plunging 41%. as i mentioned, many of the
other drugmakers along with it. fluor also coming in below estimates. vonnie: we will check back in a little bit. , morek of the headlines from our newsroom. police in montgomery county, maryland have a suspect in custody in a series of shootings in the area. as auspect is identified 62 old who was captured in the aspen hill area. the first shooting occurred thursday at a high school. the second was that a mall parking lot and the third was a fatal shooting 30 minutes later at a shopping center. checking to see if he is linked to all three cases. president obama says donald trump has a long record the needs to be examined and also said you have not offered serious proposals for dealing with the economy and national security.
to emphasize this is a serious job. this is not entertainment. this is not a reality show. contest for the presidency of the united states. what that means is that every candidate, every nominee, needs to be subject to exacting and genuine scrutiny. >> obama said he will not make an endorsed that until the primary process plays itself out. candidates work to unify the party for the general election. that also means rinse previous is breaking with paul ryan who said he is not ready to
backtrack. he does say he disagrees with the ideas like ending muslims form -- from entering the u.s. they will meet with trump thursday morning. kenneth feinberg has rejected a plan to rescue the central state's pension fund, which ford have cut benefits union members. central state is one of the biggest multi employer pension fund which pays $2.8 billion in benefits. cuts, it will be out of money by the year 2026. global news 24 hours a day powered by our journalists around the world. vonnie: thank you. now to the markets. hasies over china's economy helped drive investors away from stocks. emerging market shares among the hardest hit. take a look at the emerging market index.
its worst five-day stretch since january. i want to bring in benjamin. jpmorgan out with a very sad to note, pointing the first quarter this year was a difficult quarter as it was last year and the year before. the difference was it was sandwiched between equally if a cult quarters -- difficult quarters. u.s. economy the would grow 2% and we got .6% for the first quarter. we have a list of reasons why we should be worried and why we should not be worried about it. first of all, notwithstanding the report this morning, the labor market is trending and is solid. financial conditions have improved.
there is an issue of seasonality where the pattern over the followed by aeen strong second quarter. when we aggregate that, we see the economy starting to drift and we are seeing evidence of that. vonnie: are you sensing a dent in client sentiment? sentiment among investors has been a challenge this entire expansion. we see a global economy and the moving, ity which is is a very flat, disappointing cycle, translating into modest to positive growth rates. that is not a lot to get excited about. when we look at something like movingverything is sideways. we like assets with more carryover capital gains, credit
over equities. that is a reflection of that modest trajectory of the economy. this shows what you're talking about, the paralysis we have been noticing. we can look at that later on. you said you prefer credit. what about that? where in the world are you looking to play those plays? across amandel: multi-asset portfolio, you can think about it is credit, high yield, which we are overweight in the u.s. and europe. it you can think about it in terms of, fixed income. those are markets like the u.s. treasuries, australian bonds versus german and canadian bonds. everything is moving sideways, you have to look for ways to capture that differential. vonnie: are you looking at corporates?
even at thesel: valuations, you are looking at reasonable expectations of single-digit returns, total returns, so even though things spreads have, tightened, valuations have changed, you're looking at those returns. that is within shouting distance of what you would expect. that is ok. vonnie: we were showing our it has been difficult. i guess it is always difficult for emerging markets somewhere in the world. poland and turkey are getting hit hard. where are you looking internationally? benjamin mandel: a lot of it is driven by the fact china has definitely been in a period of short run, cyclical impetus. inre has been some impulse the chinese economy german by the property market and policy that has been active.
where, the way we look at that, as one of several upswings that have punctuated a disappointing downward chinese growth trajectory. we do not see that lasting very long. we see that in the second quarter. a disappointing week for equities, it might be more disappointing once the short run phenomenon in china receipts. vonnie: julie hyman was speaking about the u.s. dollar. where is that headed? , ajamin mandel: a lot of it lot of the run up in the dollar last year was coming from a policy divergent story between the fed versus europe and japan. of we have reached a point stasis in monetary policy where the fed has not moved. we expected them to move in september, but the risk is not that they will go sooner. we have japan also kind of sitting back and not doing much,
despite a week cyclical story. that is a recipe for the dollar to continue softening in the near term. vonnie: some breaking news, charger has one approval to buy time warner cable. that deal is finally going through. charter and time warner merger approved. this had been telegraphed, right, julie hyman? we knew this was going to go through. we had to wait for the announcement. it wasyes, we reported likely. the last one was in california. again, it is formalized we have and time warner, this approval. if you take a look how the stocks are trading, they are taking a little bit of a leg up, as you can see.
not much change from where they were trading before because, as you say, it was expected. vonnie: it is a fascinating decision when we have seen other mergers not go through. we will continue to follow that story as it progresses. ar thanks to benjamin mandel, global strategist at j.p. morgan, for joining us. more next "bloomberg markets on." ♪
charter and time warner cable merging. california does still have to vote. that does not scupper any kind of deal. stocks are little changed, mostly priced in. all right, a little turning to another deal, a deal might have for sour, fairway planning bankruptcy protection. it went public in 2013 with plans to expand beyond the city of new york. it faced competition and a heavy debt load as shares plunged from $13 to $.25. 500 million of equity was wiped out. what does it say about the state of ipo's? really the fault of the ipo, this bankruptcy? .> some of the people say yes
that is because of fairway went hugethis in 2013 with promises for equity investors. they had 12 stores at the time and they came out and said we have the potential for 300 stores. that is 2400 percent increase. they came out guns blazing and some of the people said they set these really high expectations for themselves. they overpromised and they did not deliver and some of that push for them forced them to open stores that were too close to other locations. potentially they missed out on some of the industry trends and did not square up with the competition. the need to perform potentially posted them too far outside of what they should have been doing. that sounds like bad management decisions, not
necessarily because the company was public. are you saying they had to expand quickly? alex: a little bit. management are the ones who set the expectations. they said this is what we're going to do and they really could not get there. there were some other external factors, the redhook location in brooklyn makes a lot of money for them. that was shut down your hurricane sandy for 16 winks -- weeks. it's an interesting case for these companies that are considering going public saying, be realistic, set ideas that you can execute when you're selling your story to investors so you can play them out eventually. vonnie: the other ingredient was private equity. what role did it play in the ipo and subsequently in the decision? fruitfairway started as a
and veggie stand in the 1900s. fast-forward 70 years, investment partners came in and invested $90 million in the company and took it public. they made back most of the $90 million investment in dividends and from the ipo, and they were made in fees. sterling partners did kind of push them, you have three board privatefor most of the equity firm, and when you think you thinke sponsors, about them as advising the company, which is what sterling said they did, and helping them operate. some of the onus definitely has to go to sterling partners saying, you said you were going to help this family business expand. where were you? them whenyou telling they were having ideas that were too big for their britches? vonnie: what about debtholders?
it feels like a very sad story. people were attached to their fairways outings. you have to wonder, why it couldn't just be made to work. talk about the debtholders. alex: it took on a lot of debt. that has been the linchpin. they have filed, they are looking to the court for protection. a lot of the debtholders will get paid back through this bankruptcy deal. they were going into it expecting the money they were putting in would turn around for growth and they would be paid out. ones, they to be the are being made whole, to a certain extent, but the equity have lost $500 million in value in stock. story: thank you for that
of the failure of fairway and potential lessons to anyone thinking about going public. might be able to learn from this story. today's options insight, here is a check on some of the stocks today. bank of america up .4%. copper up 5% today. by now we know the story of endo health solutions, dropping 40% today. check it speak energy -- chesapeake energy down about 10%. ♪
have seen a lot of jumping around in the markets in stocks, bonds, the dollar. is it that people are confused about the takeaway? no, i don't think so. it is clear and it is a symptom of what has been going on for a while. right now the fed is watching the unemployment figures every month really closely. traders are trading based on what the fed is going to do. almost been in a range since august, coming up on nine months, and it is all about what the fed is going to do. this year all the talk was it was going to be three rate hikes and now at least by my estimation, i bet they will be one. julie: and nothing in the jobs report dissuaded you from that. .an: no, i don't think so even before i was thinking there could be one or two.
conservative, in my view. in my view. september there is a chance there could be a rate hike. i don't think there will be one in june. julie: the trade you're looking at has to do with the etf. walk me through what you're doing. this is sort of based on my volatile are in a range bound market. the proof is in the pudding with the announcement and how the market reacted. when we get to 200, that is when off andthe fed back the market rallies. one may 20 selling about aon, 202 put, dollar is where we can sell that. oute: how does that play in the coming weeks? dan: i'm selling somebody the
right to sell the stock to me at 202 a share. spy is trading below that, that is simple, the person i sold that too, they are going to exercise it and i'm going to buy shares of that etf. i collected a dollar on this could also so my purchase price is 201, and i'm happy about that in the long run. julie: we've got to leave it there. have a great weekend. good to talk to you, especially on a day like today. we will be right back. ♪
afternoon, we have more from the newsroom. >> at first we had the first presidential politics, bernie sanders is fighting rules over the summer convention. he is concerned the democratic national committee will stack the committees are hillary clinton supporters. many of his own supporters have not but included in that process. treasury secretary jack lou will go to puerto rico on monday. he has said puerto rico may need a u.s. government bailout if congress does not act. lou called on lawmakers to pass a bill to help the island prevent a series of cascading defaults. it comes after puerto rico missed a deadline for $422 million bond payment. now, france will host a meeting of 10 countries over the significance in syria next week. foreign ministers will be on hand, the head of the western backed syrian opposition will also take part. and north korea has begun its first full meeting of the
ruling workers party in 36 years. power kim to solidify over the country. little is known what he plans to do at that congress, but kim may focus on economic growth as well as military strength. the news 24 hours a day powered by our 2,400 journalists in 150 news but rears around the world. back to you. vonnie: live at the nasdaq with a live look at what has been a down week for the nasdaq. >> mild volatility. we have had the nasdaq down mainly on the day, higher for the second time after the index's biggest member apple has recovered off of the lows. as you mentioned, we have the nasdaq down on the week by about 1%, down three weeks in a vonnie since january 13.
the worst performer, endo international, the stock is down more than 40% hitting an 18-year low after the specialty pharmaceutical company had a 2016 outlook below estimates. the profit range has been slashed by as much as 27% as the company's legacy generic business underperforms. lots of bear street reaction including kaufman who cut her rating to underperformed and slashed her target from 69% to $13 suggesting that the stock that is broken by the sellers already could trade down even more. vonnie: any other notable underperformers, abigail? shares of tesla will down 10% on the week and down three weeks in a row after the company posted a mainly inline first quarter, what could be going on here, tesla did set the goal to produce 500,000 vehicles per year starting in 2018. some may view this as rather ambitious considering the
company produced slightly more than 50,000 vehicles last year. so really big growth trajectory there. so some investors may be focusing on the company's high cash burn, increasing debt and some view as production issues. this has taken the stock below its 200-day moving average, fairly bearish the last few times it has happened. vonnie: it's always a storied stock. thank you so much abigail doolittle at the nasdaq owl week for us. is a june rate hike out that many economists and managers this morning shortly after the government reported 160,000 new jobs were added last month. now, the fed would be wise to pay attention to markets, here he is with bloomberg's tom kean and michael mckee. >> much depends on the starting, the fed and central markets, the fed is a global central banker fixated on stock prices and equity prices that
spreads into the extent that the stock market holds, i'm not so sure that june is out. i mean, we have heard from stan fisher, we have heard from williams in san francisco and they all seem to get it. they all seem to know that at some point they should be raising interest rates in order to preserve asemblance of profitability for safers and insurance companies and the like. >> you in your most recent economic letter to your clients suggest we're going to see q.e. 4. you don't see convinced that the fed should be raising rates or will be raising rates? >> i think they should raise rates in order to give safers a break at the bank and their money markets. i think at the same time that the fed probably has to support the market that is the bond market, the long bond market, quantitative easing. this has to be a slow delicate process if they are going to raise rates and there can't be
a lot of volatility. i think 2 e has to come back at some point if only to provide funds for fiscal spending. there is the thrust. when you talk about helicopter money and milton freeman and ben bernanke and dropping cash from helicopters, what they're really talking about is fiscal spending and paying for it with quantitative easing. that's not easily done. it's more easily done via the fed versus the private market. >> ben bernankey e-y talked about inflation in japan 10 years ago. olivia talked about inflation at the i.m.f. five or six years ago. why is ben gross talking about it now? why can't we reflate? why is it so hard? >> in japan it's been difficult. we know the demographic situation is much more severe than anywhere in the world aside from taiwan. we don't have the same aging problem which leads to less and less demand going forward and
so japan is not a typical petree dish, but i think what is necessary in the united states is fiscal spending. to be fair, the fed has talked about fiscal spending until their blue in the face, not only bernanke, but yellen as well. i think we need to spend money. what we spend it on is the question. how we elect our president going forward is the question, but infrastructure, health care and to my way of thinking, u.s. spending on a universall basic income which is probably five to 10 years in the future. in order to support an increasing jobless element in the u.s. society. >> what have you learned about the use and the efficacy of negative interest rates in the last couple weeks? challenges for small mid german banks, italian banking, three standard deviation in the euro dollar, how are negative rates
going to play out? >> they have been playing out as you point out, not only in banking, but in pension funds. we have seen situations in puerto rico and troy and potentially in chicago and we blame those on individual access in terms of spending. >> right. >> basically all pension funds in the united states and elsewhere are in a situation where if they can't earn 6% or 7% and certainly if they can't earn a positive return on their bonds, then their pension funds become more and more unfounded and digging deeper and deeper holes. negative interest rates are not the way to go. they are proving to be a disaster and certainly not an elixir for economies on a global basis. >> what will you look for then to pull us away from a negative interest rate policy prescription? what action are you looking for where we say, ok, we're done with that model, we got to move on to the next? >> well, central banks should give up on the phillips curve, they should give up on the
taylor rule which possess its a 2% real rate of interest. they should start moving towards it as opposed to moving in the opposite direction. at the same time, yes, in order to prevent a down draft in equity markets and risk markets and long term bond markets, they should support it via via ity todayive quantitative easing. fiscal policy has to get off the dime and spend money for jobs for infrastructure, for health care. there is trillions of dollars of needs that aren't being met because we're still in the supply side deficit cutting type of mode, almost on a global basis. vonnie: and that was bill with tom and michael after the jobs report. still ahead on "bloomberg markets." more perspective on that jobs report as we head to the coast, here is mark. >> we're seeing a gradually
improving labor market. we have added 2.5 million private sector jobs in the last year. the this month was a little softer, but the trend is positive. if you look at employment growth we're growing 1.6%, wages are up 2.5. the income proxy of the u.s. consumer is up 4%. that should be very good for the consumer and spending going forward. ♪
it's time for the bloomberg business and looking at the biggest stories now. emerging as the leading contender to buy a power plant, according to those with knowledge of the matter. they owned 35% at the end of last year. the company has a market value of $1.5 billion and $4.8 billion in total debt. shares of square sell as much as 20% on concerns about financing for its small business customer loan program. the company says it extends $153 million in loans and advances in the first quarter. that's a 4% increase from the previous report. square has had to face challenging credit market conditions and delays signing new investors to get back its lending business. and the summer movie season kicks off this weekend with the debut of "captain america," it
could be the biggest opening of the year. it brought in $200 million. if the domestic take is in that range, it would be in the all-time top five. three films from the marvel franchise are already there. and that's your bloomberg business flash. all right, the big story of the day, it was obviously the april u.s. jobs report showing a slowdown in hiring which is now firing up the debate on u.s. economic growth and fed's action in its next meeting this june. continuing the discussion a little later today and joe joins me now. joe, i think it hasn't got enough play, air play so far today that there was really some great things about this report that it wasn't all negative? joe: yeah, you look at the headline and say, it was a big miss on the jobs report. there was some aspects that were disappointing and some totally solid numbers, average hourly earnings beat expectation, the workweek
lengthened. if you look at aggregate weekly pay rolls and total number of people employed times how many hours they're working times average wages, that was really solid. so it just doesn't change the picture very much is what i would say. i think if you think june was still on the possible as a possible time when they might raise rates, i don't think it changes much. the market wasn't assigning much probability to june in the first place, so it's probably still unlikely. overall, it doesn't change much. as you can see interest rates the tually up against -- curve. it doesn't seem like a game changer. vonnie: we were talking really tiny percentages, that 10% that went down to 2% and back up to 8% when it comes to a probability of a hike in june. never thought in june. joe: it changed a little bit, not dramatic. vonnie: bank of arc and another house moved their call to september.
i notice that j.p. morgan, they said the same thing as you. look, we have known it's been weak for a while. it's a little bit weaker because we're sandwiched between two other weak quarters this time around. joe: that's an important point. one of the major anxieties about the economy right now is whether the weak q.e. 1 print we got is a seasonal thing or whether this time is different and a weak q 2 print. that is one of the big questions. vonnie: economists are looking at corporate earnings for a close. from great chart bloomberg intelligence, labor market with corporate earnings, not an impressive earnings season by any stretch. we beat on average. it was a low bar in terms of earnings. historically when you do see profits decline like this, it does not auger good things for the labor market.
vonnie: companies are beating lowered expectations, is that enticement to invest, it's unlikely, nevertheless to have cash in their balance sheets. joe: that's a key question. you look at the total number of new jobs, two ways of interpreting it. one, this was a weak report, slow down. the other is that we're getting towards full employment. we can't expect to do 200 k if we're close to full employment. the fact that average earnings jumped by 2.5% year over year argues that, yes, we're running out of labor force and companies are going to have to pay more to find workers in which case that could be a totally healthy thing. vonnie: all we have to do is convince the markets. joe, thank you so much. coming up on "what did you miss on the top of the next hour. rick from blackrock will be joining. coming up on "bloomberg
markets," the close of training two minutes away, 14 minutes. here are the averages, the dow up 54 points, .3 of a percent. and we have the u.s. 10ier treasuries, you can see in today, the yields did take a little spike lower. the active jobs data back up to where it was 175 or so. and a quick look at the u.s. dollar index, that also weakening. ♪
julie: i'm focusing on individual ubers. i'm throwing up my hands on the reaction we have seen to the jobs report. all three major averages are higher. let's look at the big ubers for the day. yelp is one of them, the company's size and profits beat estimates as it saw an increase in mobile users of 1.2 million. they are more engaged as they say in that business. another gaining as the company's earnings beat estimates and it is closer to the end of an investigation by the federal trade commission. it might have to pay $200 million as that probe does close as settlement of that probe. on the down side today, we saw endo as really the big loser in the s&p 500, the big loser of the day. that company cutting its estimates. it's been hurt by competition for one of its main drugs, it's a painkiller and been hurt by slumping generic pricing. square also seeing a big decline on the day, the company experiencing some concerns
about financing for its small business customer loan program. the company says it's seeing challenging credit market conditions. it also cited delays in signing new investors to help back that lending business. chesapeake energy seeing a big drop as well. you can see a lot of it coming sort of late in the session. the company may have to post an additional nearly $700 million in cash and letters of credit as collateral to pipeline operators and other business partners worried about its ability to pay. chesapeake has been very volatile and frequently, these kinds of concerns have been cropping up for it. finally sandisc and w.d.c., western digital, these shares going up, taking a leg reporter after a reporter said that the chinese regulator was likely to give this deal its stamp of approval, western digital buying sandisk, not too much movement here but here. vonnie: that's a technical
term, right? adding to the vocabulary of our bloomberg listeners and watchers every day. thanks. with a few more moments in today's session, you can see that on the bloomberg, what is this focusing on in the markets? michael, you heard about today's ubers, it's been a strange quarter so far. michael: today specifically there is a little bit of the bad news is good news in the jobs report and pushing out the expectations for rate hikes, maybe we won't even get one this year. this is what the futures are showing now. i also think there is the sort of range we have fallen into. the 2,100 for the closest round number on the s&p 500 and about 2050 on the low end. the technical chart guys will point out the 50-day moving average, the s&p dipped a little bit below it and shot above it today and 23.6, don't
ask me to explain this number. as bill on first word says, don't fight the 50. a lot of people believe in this stuff. the level has been a support level, so it could be something to that, people program these into their buy and sell orders. i was looking for sort of the best way to describe what i think is going on and michael, a strategist at wheaton dropped an email note that pretty much ums it up perfectly. there is a tug of war going on. on one side, you have the weaker dollar, you have oil stabilizing in the 40's at least for now. you have improving conditions in markets. on the other side of the tug of war, you have obviously this lousy earnings situation looking at the estimates now for a drop in second-quarter profits and the estimates for the rest of the year, still sort of high, but coming down. you also have economic data
that's not stellar and concern there that that's weakening. the thing about tug of war, you wonder who is going to jerk the other side in one another and who knows. vonnie: i was talking about this, corporate earnings continue to, the bottom line that they're fine and should be pretty happy with management and so forth. if there continues to be dismal underperformance on the top line, will there be investments and productivity? michael: earnings resections are corollary with actual economic recessions. it would be somewhat not too surprising to see really bad corporate profits being a major drag on the economy. vonnie: what about apple, michael, isn't it interesting we used to focus on apple and it's waiting and movement on the markets? michael: i still do. when you look at apple, it's down 17% since the middle of april, it peaked around the
year april 14, i think. if you take the s&p 500 since then, it's down a little bit less than 1.5% since the middle of april when apple peaked. if you remove apple from the equation, that's about half of the loss that we have seen. he market would be down .7%. it's put in terms that we can understand. she said that apple's loss, $260 bout $250 billion, billion in market cap. it's owned by everyone. that's the equivalent to the g.d.p. of ireland. apple's loss ireland over the month. it's something you keep an eye on. vonnie: that is pretty scary, i want to ask you about you go through some of the conferences that we have seen this week, lots of different investment ideas coming out and lots of crowded trades becoming obvious.
michael: that seems to really be the theme of the hedge funds is so many of them got into these crowded trades and really just negative sentiment and people are very much worried about technology and the role it's going to play in really reducing asset management jobs, back off jobs. this is a trend that has been going on for years. it really was a crescendo of the theme this week. people focusing on how finance is doing to be changed by technology going forward. vonnie: thank you. have a read of his column if you have a bloomberg. that's it for "bloomberg markets." here are your major averages just four minutes from the close. ♪
joe: i'm joe rosenthal. alix: i'm alix steele. scarlet: stocks fluctuating after a disappointing lead on the american economy today. joe paterno the question -- joe: the question is what did you miss? scarlet: treasuries sending yields higher. alix: should we be satisfied with 160,000 jobs. does it point to a new reality in the labor market. joe: votes being counted in the u.k.'s general elections, the latest results indicate that an exit looks less likely. scarlet: we begin with our market minute. stocks do finish higher near the best levels of the day, we're talking fairly modest gains, the dow adding half of 1%. seven of 10 groups ending higher with materials the best performing sector. utilities were the laar